A comparison of two prospects

[quote name=Berselius]Tutoring math is an incredible gravy train if you can get on it. I did it while a grad student and felt like I was stealing money from undergrads. I probably should have charged more (dying laughing).[/quote]
I tutored a sophomore when I was a Senior in high school. The kid was a dumb shit, but I got $20 an hour to show him how to solve quadratic equations. That was pretty good money for a high school kid over 20 years ago.

Fuck, I’m old.

[quote name=josh]Totally baseball related onion article:

http://www.theonion.com/articles/nations-10yearold-boys-if-you-see-someone-raping-u,26724//quote(dying laughing)

“We feel perhaps not everyone is totally clear on what to do if one witnesses such a thing.”

(dying laughing)

In years there will be some 26 year old SS in the Cubs system and Cubs fans will want the young guy to replace an even younger Castro.

I keep reading Z as Zambrano. Which confuses the hell out of me as I try to read the article (dying laughing)

[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]I keep reading Z as Zambrano. Which confuses the hell out of me as I try to read the article (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing) I didn’t even think about Zambrano. Should have chosen a couple other letters. Oh well.

I think there is a bias towards american prospects simply because guys like KG get a greater percentage of their info from scouts in the US, who spend much of their time preparing for the draft.

Can someone tell me why Josh Vitters (Z) is seen as a legitimate prospect while Junior Lake (X) is not by many people?

I’m sure it has to do with scouting rather than numbers.

[quote name=GW]I think there is a bias towards american prospects simply because guys like KG get a greater percentage of their info from scouts in the US, who spend much of their time preparing for the draft.[/quote]I used to think the same thing and then I went through the top 10s on BA one year and a surprisingly large percentage of the players were Hispanic. I didn’t read the scouting reports so it wouldn’t surprise me if they were relatively high, but had criticism that American born players didn’t.

[quote name=ACT]I’m sure it has to do with scouting rather than numbers.[/quote]Scouting is still quite valuable for these players, but looking at the production, I just don’t understand it. Even reading the scouting reports that I have I have trouble. Then again, I take most of the scouting reports for Vitters and ignore them because it’s been recent that people have finally started to pay attention to the fact he can’t walk.

X turns 22 in March…

X played a majority of his age 21 season in AA…

In X’s first partial season in AA he hit a measly .248/.300/.380…

In 5 seasons and 1850 minor league plate appearances, X has hit .267/.315/.401….

X has walked in 6.8% of his plate appearances…

X has far greater speed. He’s stolen 82 bases…

X does much more damage when he puts the ball in play…

His name is Robert Paulson.

[quote name=fang2415](dying laughing)

“We feel perhaps not everyone is totally clear on what to do if one witnesses such a thing.”

(dying laughing)[/quote]It’s actually kind of quietly funny (I chuckled rather than laughing out loud) since the underlying topic is so serious. The Onion does that so well. Humor as a defense mechanism FTW.

/cool story bro’d

[quote name=AndCounting]Has anyone asked Theo what he plans to do with their Greek baseball academy? I could have sworn Hendry made this happen years ago.[/quote]They were too busy forming one in Finland. Here’s a look at the new Finnish Academy:

[quote name=josh]I think US baseball needs to incorporate whistles.[/quote]Also throwing back and forth between catcher and third base while the opposing team chants. That’s something we DEFINITELY need.

[quote name=AndCounting]Damn, those kids can play.[/quote]The future is bright for this organization. All the other teams are scouting Dominicans and Venezuelans and can only pay them so much now. There are a lot of great Finnish players older than 23 just waiting to help the Cubs win a championship.

[quote name=josh]Also throwing back and forth between catcher and third base while the opposing team chants. That’s something we DEFINITELY need.[/quote]That’s actually 1st base. 3rd base is just behind 1st. 2nd base is where we have 1st base. We’ve been doing it wrong for all these years.

[quote name=work sucks]According to Heyman, the Cubs are open to dealing Wells in the right deal. I mean, obviously they are (correctly, I think) open to dealing almost anybody in the right deal, it’s just strange that they’d deal pitchers when that is clearly an area of need. I assume they would target better/younger/cheaper pitchers in return.[/quote]I think they’re willing to trade anybody on the roster including Starlin Castro in the right deal.

[quote name=Berselius]I’m holding out hope for a Longoria for Castro straight up swap[/quote]3-team trade with the Rays and Giants that get the Cubs Lincecum and Longoria with both teams paying their salaries.

[quote name=mb21][/quote]Actually, that’s kind of cool. Easier to get on base, but more difficult to score.

[quote name=WenningtonsGorillaCock][/quote](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)

Speaking of Garza…

http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/11/28/1128-matt-garzas-availability/

Muskat confirms what a couple other guys have been tweeting.

That it should be “alright” or that using kids and predators in the same headline is all wrong?

[quote name=Rice Cube]Correct x (2 or 288)[/quote]Actually, according to most style guides, “Alright” is still a misspelling of “all right.” But “alright” is gaining acceptance.

[quote name=josh]Actually, according to most style guides, “Alright” is still a misspelling of “all right.” But “alright” is gaining acceptance.[/quote]Most style guides, including the A.P. Guide. So, this usage is alright.

[quote name=AndCounting]Style guides are such impediments to linguistic progress.[/quote]Whe tchood juyct tzpell hou’eevar wey waant.

No, they tend to skew toward a conservative interpretation of the language, but newspapers tend to skew older, so it all works out.

[quote name=DamageControlFreak]I don’t really get it either, but then again I’m almost always at a loss to understand how to value prospects.
Either way, it’s not THAT hard to understand the different judgment on these 2, after all Vitters has played a quite successful full season of AA in 2011 (.283/.322/.448) while Lake has played only a partial season in AA, in whichw his BA dropped from .315 to .248 during the transition.

While it’s perfectly possible he’ll adapt and bounce back, he has yet to prove he can do it. Vitters already did that, so he’s obviously “more ready” for the big leagues.

That being sad, I don’t like either of them too much, players who can’t take a walk just suck, which leads to their OBPs being kinda replacement levelish.[/quote]I agree with you here for the most part. I think judging them based on small samples rather than the large one is a bit shortsighted, but I agree that’s likely the reason one is considered more legitimate than the other.

[quote name=mb21]Colin Wyers came up with BACON and SLGCON back when he was writing for MVN’s Statspeak blog. It doesn’t include foul balls because they aren’t in play. At-bats – BB – HBP – K

The difference between that and BABIP is that home runs are included. BABIP doesn’t consider a HR in play.[/quote]Got it, suspected as much. .400 and .360 still sound pretty high to me. I assume the reason scouts like Vitters is that they see him do that and think “if this guy can just figure out when to do that, he has a huge upside”. It’s just taking everybody a while to notice that subordinate clause.

When I read this, I was both impressed by how thorough these guys are in most respects and amazed that there is still no place to mention patience in the standard scouting report. If you ask me, “eye” should certainly be considered a sixth tool by now.

mmm… bacon.

I remember I once went to the Wikipedia page for bacon and it was locked. I wondered why so I checked the history and saw that someone had changed it so that the first sentence read “Bacon is a smoked or cured meat taken from the back or belly of a pig and is awesome.” Then somebody else had just replaced the whole page with “I LOOOOOOOOOOOOVE BACON!” (dying laughing).

[quote name=josh]Whe tchood juyct tzpell hou’eevar wey waant.

No, they tend to skew toward a conservative interpretation of the language, but newspapers tend to skew older, so it all works out.[/quote]In issues of spelling, I default to Merriam-Webster. They’re much more progressive. Even they are too slow to adapt to contemporary usage, but they greatly outpace the glacial response of style guides.

[quote name=fang2415]Yep. I’m guessing some scouts might roll eye into batting, but IMO the ability to judge pitches is important enough that it should be in there on its own. Also I guess BIP-style hitting is a skill so it makes sense to leave it in, but you’re doomed if you’re not evaluating patience somehow.

I assume this is something that smart people like the Superfriends can do with their scouts. As they point out, scouts can be a really valuable instrument, but they better be looking for shit that matters.[/quote]I think the stats tell you as much as you’re going to know about a batter’s eye. A scout may be able to judge by facial expressions and body language if a hitter thinks a ball called a strike is really a strike or not, but part of that will be the scout being able to decide if the pitch was really in the zone or not, and then based on that whether the hitter was justified. The point is, that’s a lot of room for error. The hitter’s OBP, contact on balls that are strikes, walk rates, etc. probably tell you as much about his understanding of the strike zone as anything ever will. Scouts can’t really read minds.

Also…This reminds me that I need to put bacon on the shopping list. Thankfully baseball doesn’t yet use LARD or DONUT as acronyms

I think MB’s idea of replacing Average with OBP is the best you can do. High school is probably a bigger challenge here. Scouts probably have to or need to keep score at high school games and even some college games. Who knows how accurate the “official” score keepers are or how willing they are to share the score sheets. I’m sure bigger schools are more vigilant about that, just for that reason, though. i would think the things the scout could tell you would be if, over a large sample size, if the player really “earned” his average and stuff like that. I really don’t know. Poise, confidence stealing base, maybe. Jumps on balls hit toward him. Instinctual details captured in the stats, but not specifically parsed out.

[quote name=josh]I think MB’s idea of replacing Average with OBP is the best you can do. High school is probably a bigger challenge here. Scouts probably have to or need to keep score at high school games and even some college games. Who knows how accurate the “official” score keepers are or how willing they are to share the score sheets. I’m sure bigger schools are more vigilant about that, just for that reason, though. i would think the things the scout could tell you would be if, over a large sample size, if the player really “earned” his average and stuff like that. I really don’t know. Poise, confidence stealing base, maybe. Jumps on balls hit toward him. Instinctual details captured in the stats, but not specifically parsed out.[/quote]
I like the idea of including plate eye, but i don’t think you can get rid of average. i think that scouts weigh that pretty heavily in projection terms.

[quote name=Aisle424]So, am I correct that I can NOT purchase a 2012 season MLB.TV package as a Xmas gift? I only see an option for 2011 recap expiring on 4/3/12.[/quote]Aisley, I told you that a gift wasn’t necessary. I was happy to call the clinic for you to arrange for the dislodgement.

[quote name=uncle dave]Isn’t ‘plate eye’ Vogelbach’s primary skill?[/quote]That may be a secondary skill. I seem to recall that he was pretty good at killing baseballs.

[quote name=uncle dave]Isn’t ‘plate eye’ Vogelbach’s primary skill?[/quote]That and hitting the ball 800 miles in one swing.

Apparently, trying to make a C-minus fat joke while on the phone with the electric company doesn’t work all that well. For the record, PG&E has a mind-blowingly absurd, complicated, and useless automated customer service system.

Then I go over and look at the DBacks top 10 and not one Hispanic. (dying laughing)

3 in the Cardinals and 3 in the Pirates system.

2 in the Reds and 3 in the Cubs systems.

0 in the Nationals and 4 in the Mets.

[quote name=uncle dave]I’m sorry, I didn’t catch that. Can you repeat it, please?[/quote]After awhile this is what I usually get: “If you’re going to talk to me that way, I’m going to hang up.”

I don’t deal with customer service people well on the phone. The only time I’m calling them is when they’re not doing their job and it pisses me off. It would be like a mailman not delivering my mail. Do your fucking jobs and I won’t have to call. (dying laughing)

[quote name=mb21]I don’t deal with customer service people well on the phone. The only time I’m calling them is when they’re not doing their job and it pisses me off. It would be like a mailman not delivering my mail. Do your fucking jobs and I won’t have to call. (dying laughing)[/quote]I’m glad I don’t work help lines. I did my telemarketing tour of duty out of college. NEVER FORGET!

[quote name=Rice Cube]Is this a real person or the automated system? I’ve never had that happen to me before. Maybe I need to drop more F-bombs to trigger their “goodbye” subroutine (dying laughing)[/quote]Apparently the new iPhone voice recognition thing reacts to being insulted and hassled like that. Its responses are pretty level-headed and dull, tho.

[quote name=mb21]Yeah, that was just something I wasn’t willing to invest the time in doing. I don’t even remember why I looked through the lists, but I was shocked at how many of the top 10s were Hispanic. I’ll go through the ones BA has for 2012 and post them here.[/quote]
(dying laughing). yeah, me neither.

[quote name=Rice Cube]Is this a real person or the automated system? I’ve never had that happen to me before. Maybe I need to drop more F-bombs to trigger their “goodbye” subroutine (dying laughing)[/quote]A real person. By the time I get an actual living person on the phone I’m usually pissed off and if I don’t get anywhere within a minute I’m not happy.

[quote name=GW](dying laughing). yeah, me neither.[/quote]I think I read somewhere that it was close to 35% or higher in the minor leagues. The Hispanic percentage at the big league level was 28% and it’s much higher in the minors. It’s easy to say that 3 to 4 of the top 10 should be Hispanic, but what’s not clear to me is what that 35%ish is coming from. Does it include the Summer Leagues? If it does then the percentage in A ball through AAA is significantly lower than 35%.

I’ve read the BA Prospect Handbooks for the last 7 to 8 years and if there’s one thing that has stood out to me it’s that so many of the Hispanic players are referred to as athletic. I’d easily say that the scouts view the Hispanics as more athletic than the average white guy. Whether or not this true is another issue (I suspect there’s some truth to it, but not as much as the scouts think). Remember, Hispanics are signed without much playing experience and they’re signed at such a young age that big fatties aren’t going to be signed. They’ll be looking for toolsy players in the middle of the field so I think there is some truth to it.

The other thing that has stood out to me is that athletic players are more highly rated than they should be. I say that based on my own scale, which is inferior to BA’s, but I think so highly of myself that I have a scale. (dying laughing)

[quote name=GW]who mans the customer service line for ovblog?[/quote]

[quote name=uncle dave]Isn’t ‘plate eye’ Vogelbach’s primary skill?[/quote]That and rib-eye

Matt Murton news:

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/28/report-matt-murton-to-remain-in-japan/

I say that based on my own scale, which is inferior to BA’s, but I think so highly of myself that I have a scale. (dying laughing)

It must be tough having all those minor league players weighing themselves in your bathroom.

/rimshot

[quote name=josh]Now where will the Cubs find young talent?[/quote]

[quote name=josh]Now where will the Cubs find young talent?[/quote]According to Bruce Levine, Mitch Moreland is an emerging left handed power hitter who the Cubs might target for Matt Garza. Moreland is only 26. And he has a career .427 slugging percentage in almost 700 plate appearances. He’s been worth .3 WAR. (dying laughing)

I think you want scouts watching how a kid judges pitches for the same reasons you want him judging a kid’s power.

A good scout should be able to watch four or five PAs and tell you whether a kid can work counts, whether he can wait for his pitch instead of just going after every strike, whether he’s missing on close pitches or nowhere near, whether any shortcomings in his eye are likely to be fixed with a small mechanical correction or not: basically, the same kind of stuff they do for the other five tools.

Scouting is about projecting the future based on very small sample sizes rather than waiting to see how somebody does after two years of elite competition. With established players you can sit around and read the stats like we do, but for judging raw talent quickly and in weird environments like HS or low minors, scouts can provide extremely valuable information about what they look at. And if the Superfriends don’t have them looking at pitch selection already, they damn well ought to, tootblansweet.

[quote name=uncle dave]NPR did a bit a while back where they conferenced in two systems and had them try to talk with each other. I’m not sure it was real, but it was pretty entertaining.[/quote]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-14843549

(dying laughing)

[quote name=fang2415]By “kid” of course, I mean anyone under the age of 32. The Cubs should definitely send a team of scouts down to Texas to check out this Moreland kid.[/quote]And by “Moreland kid” of course, I mean Keith.

Okay, time for me to stop having the blog to myself…

Can’t resist this one:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-15932748

[quote name=Rodrigo]Cubs also have interest in David DeJesus. Heard from CSN[/quote]We could all use a little more (De)Jesus in our lives.

/evangelist’d

[quote name=Rice Cube]We could all use a little more (De)Jesus in our lives.

/evangelist’d[/quote]
Maybe it’s Mark (De)DeRosa

[quote name=mb21]http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-15923438[/quote]Ha! Urethra moment.

[quote name=Rodrigo]Cubs also have interest in David DeJesus. Heard from CSN[/quote]Why not just go all-out and see if you can get Ivan instead? Then with him and Moreland, you get two top prospects at once!

[quote name=fang2415]With the right offer you might get Shawon Dunston Sr. to come play. Or if you’re really lucky, Wayne Gretzky.[/quote]
What’s the current exchange rate for goals/assists to HR/RBI?

[quote name=fang2415]50/50[/quote]Wayne Gretzky could be bigger than Sadaharu Oh.

Not sure if this is tripe or agent crap, but apparently Rosenthal thinks the Cubs are legitimately pursuing Pujols.

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Albert-Pujols-Prince-Fielder-Chicago-Cubs-pursuing-star-free-agents-112811

I can see Fielder contract being bad in 5 years. I’d wager a Pujols deal could also be bad in about the same time frame. The idea obviously then would be to get the shorter, cheaper deal. However Pujols is better than Prince, both as a hitter and on defense. Its just a higher ceiling from which to fall. Assuming he’s really 31, I can see him being great until he’s 38; maybe not as good as he is now, but an all-star.