Mets @ Cubs Game Thread

In Game Threads by dmick8983 Comments

Time: 1:20 PM CT
TV: ABC7, ESPN
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Gameday

LINEUPS

new-york-mets

Jose Reyes, 3B
Curtis Granderson, CF
Wilmer Flores, 3B
James Loney, 1B
Travis d’Arnaud, C
Kelly Johnson, 2B
Juan Lagares, CF
Michael Conforto, LF
Bartolo Colon, P

Cubs logo

Ben Zobrist, RF
Kris Bryant, 3B
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Willson Contreras, LF
Jason Heyward, CF
Addison Russell, SS
Miguel Montero, C
Javier Baez, 2B
Kyle Hendricks, P

Will the Cubs win? No, but it could go either way.

538 Forecast: 61% chance of winning

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Comments

  1. Edwin

    Umpire seems to be giving a good pitcher’s zone today. With Hendricks hitting his spots, that should work in his favor.

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  2. JonKneeV

    It’s painful listening to these guys (besides Kirkjian) debate trading Schwarber to two months of Aroldis Chapman. Nevermind the fact that he has domestic violence problems or that Rizzo (and I’m sure others) have previous scuffles with Chapman.

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  3. EnricoPallazzo

    on cubs.com, there is a link to an article that says “hammel receives five free cartons of potato chips”. i am purposely not clicking on it because i’d much rather just speculate wildly on what the fuck this could possibly mean than find out what i’m sure is a very mundane explanation.

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  4. Perkins

    JonKneeV,

    I just find it adorable that anyone would think Schwarber is a realistic return for only Chapman or Miller (even for both of them together).

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  5. Rizzo the Rat

    Didn’t see the game. How did Rizzo do? I’m worried about him after that Golden Somrero he had yesterday.

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  6. Edwin

    Cubs get Mike Montgomery for Dan Vogelbach. Mike turned 27 in July, throws 94 from the left side, and gets lefties out. He comes with 5 more seasons of control. My intial reaction is the Cubs overpaid a smidge, but they seemed to fill a need. Apparently it’s also possible there are more players involved in the deal.

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  7. uncle dave

    Edwin,

    As is a Mariners minor league pitcher, apparently. Hoping that it’s DONN ROACH.

    If Montgomery’s improvement this year is related to his move to the pen, I don’t hate this deal. If he regresses to where he’s been, it’ll be disappointing.

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  8. Edwin

    Also, I love how the instant reaction from Cubs fans is “Great deal! Theo is the best!” Such a different era for the Cubs.

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  9. GW

    Edwin: He comes with 5 more seasons of control.

    O/U for the number of those he actually uses? 3?

    He used to be a pretty well-thought of prospect. An above average reliever for the moment, but not by a lot.

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  10. Author
    dmick89

    GW,

    Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. He’s probably better than average this year and maybe next and that’s a big maybe. He’s not all that much better than Clayton Richard in all honesty. He’s definitely better, but so much better than you’d give up Vogelbach and a starting pitching prospect? I probably wouldn’t.

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  11. Author
    dmick89

    I will say, I am at least glad the Cubs didn’t give up a stupid amount to get Andrew Miller so there’s at least that. I also hope this means they’ll now move on and go after a left fielder.

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  12. Rizzo the Rat

    I’m not sure what to make of Montgomery myself. The last two seasons are like two different pitchers. Even his platoon splits have reversed (he got crushed by lefties last year, which makes me slightly leery of using him as a bullpen lefty). Maybe he’s like Sean Marshall and the move to the pen made him suddenly good. His velocity is up nearly 3 mph (!), which is promising.

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  13. Rizzo the Rat

    As a general rule, ex-starters don’t make good LOOGYs, since starters are selected for having smaller platoon splits.

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  14. Rizzo the Rat

    GW,

    Yeah, but it’s not being terrible when facing mostly right-hand hitting. Then again, if the reliever failed as a starter, it’s worth looking into whether platoon splits played a significant role (I think they did in Travis Wood’s case).

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  15. uncle dave

    Tough crowd here. It’s not exactly the move I’m hoping will be considered the big one once the deadline passes, but Montgomery’s FIP is roughly the same as Strop’s this year, he’s a lefty, and he doesn’t put a dent in the budget at all. If his improvement is a mirage it’s a different story, but considering that Vogelbach doesn’t have a place on 15 teams (including the Cubs) by default and Blackburn’s K/9 is in the sixes and going nowhere, I’m not sure the Cubs gave all that much up. I can’t get too bent out of shape over this deal as long as it’s not the last move they make this year.

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  16. uncle dave

    dmick89,

    Yeah, I think that if you’re willing to live with the warts Vogelbach will wind up hitting for you. I just don’t know how many teams were interested in the warts.

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  17. Smokestack Lightning

    dmick89: I’m not a fan either.

    Me three. Never give up anything to get a reliever unless they’re truly game-changey. Otherwise you’re just asking to get Bagwelled.

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  18. EnricoPallazzo

    dmick89:
    uncle dave,

    The Cubs could have been screwed with regards to his value since half the teams in the league could have guessed he’d never play a game for the Cubs.

    this is the point that i’m not really hearing amidst all of the bitching about the return for a (potentially) great hitter. i’m not crazy about the return but i gotta assume theo’s leverage was for shit.

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  19. EnricoPallazzo

    EnricoPallazzo,

    maybe another way to look at the trade is “did we get a useful piece for a guy we weren’t going to ever use” instead of “was it fair market value”. i think most people look at the second question which is for sure logical but perhaps the first question is more pertinent.

    not sure what the answer to the first question actually is but just saying.

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  20. Edwin

    uncle dave:
    but considering that Vogelbach doesn’t have a place on 15 teams (including the Cubs) by default

    I may have missed this, but when did Vogelbach turn into a DH only? I assume his defense isn’t great, but that’s why he’s at 1B to begin with. I understand that the Cub might have been above an oven in regards to him being blocked at the MLB level, but I’m surprised there weren’t more teams involved trying to drive his price up a little more. He’s 23 and having a breakout year with the bat.

    The other reason I’m down on the trade is I’m not that impressed with the piece coming back. He’s 27 and this is just his 2nd year in MLB, and the first time he’s found success, in a sample size of 61 innings. Maybe the Cubs found the next Sean Marshall, but I could easily seem him struggling just as much as Richardson.

    Maybe “down” isn’t the best way to put it. I think it’s a good trade in that the Cubs got an MLB piece which can help them this year, and gave up some assets which they probably weren’t going to use anyways. I just don’t think it’s a great trade.

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  21. Edwin

    dmick89:
    i’m sure everybody in Cubsfanland loves it though. Greatest trade ever.

    I keep seeing “Great Trade” thrown around. I don’t get it, but I guess everything Theo does these days is Great until Proven Excellent.

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  22. SK

    Dexter Fowler was a combined 1-for-5 with a double and a walk in two games with Triple-A Iowa on Wednesday

    snip

    Fowler started in center field in the first game and went 0-for-3 and struck out twice. He was the designated hitter in the second game and went 1-for-2 with a double and a walk and scored two runs

    snip

    Fowler was expected to rejoin the Cubs on Friday in Milwaukee.

    snip

    Jorge Soler started in left in the first game and went 0-for-3, striking out three times. Joe Nathan entered the first game in the seventh and walked the bases loaded.

    snip

    /muskat

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  23. Author
    dmick89

    Edwin: The other reason I’m down on the trade is I’m not that impressed with the piece coming back. He’s 27 and this is just his 2nd year in MLB, and the first time he’s found success, in a sample size of 61 innings. Maybe the Cubs found the next Sean Marshall, but I could easily seem him struggling just as much as Richardson.

    This. I just don’t think the Cubs got anything that is very good and while I accept that Vogelbach likely had no place with the Cubs in the future, that doesn’t mean he didn’t have value.

    The best thing about this trade is that they didn’t give up even more to get Andrew Miller.

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  24. Author
    dmick89

    SK,

    Nathan will be with the Cubs on Friday, right? If I recall, he made his first rehab appearance on the 23rd of June. He has 30 days in which he can be on a rehab assignment.

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  25. Edwin

    Some additional scouting from Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-dan-vogelbach-and-co/

    So maybe the defense really is that bad for Vogelbach. I still feel like compared to most 1B, he’d do just fine.

    What’s really funny to me is for the longest time I felt like I was more down than a lot of people on Vogelbach because of his lack of power. Now he’s actually started to find his power, he gets traded, and suddenly I feel like I’m much higher on Vogelbach than most. I wonder how this trade compares to the Rizzo/Cashner trade.

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  26. Author
    dmick89

    If the Cardinals win today, they’ll be just 6.5 out. That’s still a huge lead and I’m not too worried about them, but I liked it a lot more when it was a double digit lead.

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  27. Author
    dmick89

    Edwin,

    I haven’t been high on Vogelbach in a long time because it started to sound like playing 1st base was going to be a long shot. He’s always hit well so worst case I figured he could come up and take over for Anthony if Rizzo got injured, but I didn’t see him spending much or any time in Chicago because of his defense.

    That said, this is still a small return for someone who could soon be one of the better DH’s in the league.

    Can we please get the DH in the NL?

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  28. Mucker

    dmick89:
    If the Cardinals win today, they’ll be just 6.5 out. That’s still a huge lead and I’m not too worried about them, but I liked it a lot more when it was a double digit lead.

    The Cardinals make me sick to my fucking stomach.

    That is all.

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