Kirk Hinrich pretty much lost this game.
With 3 seconds to go and the Bulls up 3, Monta Ellis (a good 3-point shooter to be sure) drove up to the right side of the court to take a desperation 3 as time expired. Hinrich fouled as Ellis went into his shot, with 1.2 seconds left. Ellis seemingly had no chance to make the 3, but he had a chance to make all 3 free throws. Obviously, he converted, and the Bulls went on to lose in double overtime.
I’d like to focus a little more on just how bad that foul was. Ellis is a 32.3% shooter from behind the arc in his career. That means, on the average shot, he’d make it 32.3% of the time; it DOESN’T mean that any shot he takes has that particular chance. When he’s wide open, he makes it more often, and when he’s 31 feet from the hoop, he probably makes it less (that being said, Ellis put the dagger in the Bulls in 2OT with a 27-footer, so he’s clearly capable of making the deep cuts). Let’s be generous and put Ellis’ chances of making the 3 at 30%.
Ellis is also a 78% free throw shooter (80%) this year. For him to tie the game, He has to make all three. The probability of that is .78^3 = 46%. The foul, therefore, cost around 8% of an entire win (assuming two things: the teams are evenly matched, and Ellis is 30% from that shot. I’d wager it’s more in the 10% range, but I’m not willing to dig too deeply).
For his part, Hinrich looked pretty sick with himself after it happened, and Thibs pulled him off the court and he never saw it again (in fact, I kept looking for him in shots during timeouts. He was either off the court entirely or way on the end of the bench).
The Bulls and Mavericks are really evenly matched, and neither team led by more than 4 in either overtime. Rose buried a 26-footer as time expired to send it into double overtime, but the Bulls (and Pau Gasol, specifically – he played 50 minutes) just wore down and the Mavs eked out a victory.
Rose did not look great (that shot excepted). Some part of his lower body was clearly bothering him at the end of the game, and he had some wasted setpieces towards the end of regulation. There was one play in particular that I think sums up the season so far; Rose drove wildly towards the rim, like he is wont to do. Dallas did a good job boxing him out, and he had an awkward layup that wasn’t close. However, as he fell to the ground watching his ball harmlessly bounce of the rim, Jimmy Butler comes out of nowhere and just pokes it in. Butler is clearly the Bulls’ best player this year, and that’s not a slight to anyone else on the Bulls. Butler has just been phenomenal this year.
Pau Gasol was probably the Bulls’ best player last night, though. He absolutely buried the mid-range jumper all night, and he kept them in both overtimes until he finally broke down (I think he had 3 turnovers all game, and they were all in the second overtime). Nikola Mirotic was another bright spot, with a strong 4th quarter where he got to the line at will.
The Bulls played well enough to win, and Hinrich sort of blundered it away, but don’t take anything away from the Mavs. Monta Ellis played out of his mind, taking a mind-blowing 35 shots and dumping 38 on the Bulls. Dirk Nowitzki is really showing his age, but his shooting touch is still there, and from the 4th quarter on he was money (though he and Rose both played some ugly star-ball in the beginning of the second OT). Chandler Parsons has a really punchable face, but he also had a key play in the second OT that helped seal it up for the Mavericks. The Mavericks have a really good team, and while a Bulls/Mavericks isn’t the MOST likely NBA Finals, I don’t think anyone would be surprised if it happened.
The Bulls play again tonight, and I’m not sure if they’ll have McDermott back (they don’t care) or Gibson back (they care very much). The Hornets have wildly underachieved this year, but they are well rested and playing at home. It should be a tough end to the back-to-back.