It's assumed by many that Matt Garza's trade value is high enough that he will almost certainly be traded. As I was last year, I remain unconvinced. Before we get into his actual trade value, the Cubs have three options with Garza.
- Trade
- Qualifying offer at the end of the season
- Sign extension
The first two are connected and the third is for a separate post.
If the Cubs keep Garza and present him with a qualifying offer at the end of the season (around $12 million), they would receive draft pick compensation in the 2014 Draft. This compensation pick was valued at around $2.5 million back in 2009 so we can increase that to at least $3 million. That's what the Cubs get, in terms of value, if they do nothing other than give him a qualifying offer.
This is important because any team that trades for Garza would not be eligible for draft pick compensation. The new CBA says that a player is only eligible to receive this if he's been with the team the entire year. That $3 million is money that the trading team can't get and as a result, it lessens his value.
Prior to the new CBA, teams would acquire players like Garza with the intention of getting that draft pick at the end of the season. As such, it increased the trade value. The new CBA kind of sucks and this is gone. Teams won't be paying, in prospects, the value of that draft pick.
That doesn't mean it doesn't have value to the Cubs. It does. It's roughly $3 million in value. What I'm getting at is that in any trade, the Cubs are going to have to get back that much in value to make it worthwhile. If they can't, they keep him and go the qualifying offer route.
Matt Garza earns $10.25 million this year. A lot of people forget that you're trading contracts and not players. Assuming no money is sent to the other team, if Garza was traded today, the team he was traded to would be on the hook for roughly $5.1 million the rest of the way.
The value of the win is roughly $5 million. Now we know how much Garza would have to be worth (1 win).
Fangraphs rest of season projections for ZiPS and Steamer have him at 1.1 and 1.3 WAR, respectively. PECOTA has him at 1.5. We get an aveage of 1.3 WAR the rest of the way making him worth approximately $6.5 million. Since he's owed $5.1 million, he has a surplus trade value of $1.4 million, which is half of what the draft pick compensation would be worth to the Cubs.
I feel I have to point out that this does mean, guaranteed, that Matt Garza's surplus trade value is $1.4 million. The projections may not be accurate. One or more teams may value Garza more, may feel desperate, could convince themselves that roughly 1 to 2 wins the rest of the way is the difference they're looking for, could ignore such analysis altogether and so on. It's a good starting point for discussion and some teams will end up getting more and others less.
The Cubs could send some money the other direction to improve whatever prospect or package of prospects they're looking to acquire. If the Cubs send the remaining money on his contract, the Cubs could then expect to get Garza's full value in return ($6.5 million).
That is somewhere between a Grade B hitter and a Grade B pitcher. Ken Rosenthal reported that the following teams were recently scouting Matt Garza: Nationals, Dodgers, Phillies, Orioles and Blue Jays. Jon Heyman adds that the Giants, Red Sox and Rangers to the list.
I still think it's most likely that Garza will be traded, but I don't expect a huge return for him or anything. I'd be inclined to sign him to an extension if Garza was willing to for the right terms. The Cubs need pitching and since their farm system lacks it, they're going to have to acquire it on the free agent market. They could probably sign Garza to an team-friendly extension and moving forward the Cubs know they have two guys who can fit in the top spots of their rotation (Jeff Samardzija being the other).
Comments
@ Ryno:
Are those finally final deals?
dmick89Quote Reply
STOP IT!
http://mundideportes.bligoo.com/listado-de-firmas-julio-2-mlb
dmick89 wrote:
Those were rumored deals, but the first two Rangers’ deals were nearly right on.
RynoQuote Reply
Yrizarri: Rumored $1.3 million. Actual $1.375 million
Almonte was right on.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
I saw both those on BA so I thought they were maybe all accurate. Looks like the Rangers have been busy.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
could very well be true. the Cubs are likely to acquire more space before announcing Jimenez, because they can’t do that after using up their original pool. Gleyber is going to announce today, if the rumors are correct. Gleyber + Jimenez is going to put them right up against their original limit. So I expect to see a trade before Jimenez is announced.
seems to me that the latin american sources are more accurate this time of year, because their info comes from the players, whereas BA is more connected to FO types, who are not going to leak anything that will jeopardize the bigger picture for their team.
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Word is that the Rangers have acquired more space from the Marlins.
GWQuote Reply
If I read GW’s article right, they couldn’t trade Garza, plus the rest of his contract to get more space since cash considerations can’t be a factor. Is that right?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
i’m not completely clear about that. read somewhere else that their may be loopholes there. however, mlb is clearly trying to avoid teams buying more space
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
If that one site is accurate, they’ll need it. They’re spending lots of money.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
if that site is right, they have just ignored the restrictions altogether. according to that, they have $4.3 million committed. the most they could spend by acquiring space and going up against the extra 5% limit is $3.05 million, if I’m doing the math correctly.
if that’s what they are doing, they may say fuck it and make a run at jimenez as well.
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
You lose a draft pick at some point, right?
dmick89Quote Reply
looks like eating salary would be fine
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
if the draft is instituted, yes. otherwise, they just can’t sign anyone over $250k next year, or somesuch.
GWQuote Reply
Penalties With No International Draft
• 0-5 percent over pool: 75 percent tax on the pool overage.
• 5-10 percent over pool: 75 percent tax on the pool overage. Team won’t be allowed to sign a player for more than $500,000 during the 2014-15 signing period.
• 10-15 percent over pool: 100 percent tax on the pool overage. Team won’t be allowed to sign a player for more than $500,000 during the 2014-15 signing period.
• 15 percent or more over pool: 100 percent tax on the pool overage. Team won’t be allowed to sign a player for more than $250,000 during the 2014-15 signing period.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/penalties-for-exceeding-pools-depend-on-international-draft/
GWQuote Reply
There isn’t a draft in 2014, right? The commissioner was supposed to let teams know in early June.
dmick89Quote Reply
Edwin Jackson got robbed: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-most-wrong-called-ball-of-june/
joshQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
yeah, pretty sure. going way over actually seems like a pretty viable strategy. especially if you think that the premium guys in this year’s class are really good.
GWQuote Reply
http://mlb.si.com/2013/05/31/mlb-international-draft-2014/
GWQuote Reply
Here’s what I think is funny/annoying about Alvin:
The top story on Lonestar Ball is an update on international signings. It’s the most news-worthy item in the baseball world at the moment, and it’s reflected on the site.
The top story on bleedfagetblue is Alvin’s editorial about the Cubs new regime ruining Starlin Castro. Alvin hilariously uses the qualifier he’s “no hitting coach” and one example to say how clear it is to him (several times) that Theo Epstein personally needs to stop trying to change Starlin Castro.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
I don’t know why he’s wasting his time with that when he could be reporting on box scores from 1956.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Cubs sign Jefferson Mejia for $850K
GWQuote Reply
http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/dominican-righthander-jefferson-mejia/
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
Their sales department just got better.
http://ve.linkedin.com/pub/jefferson-mejia/5b/349/81b
RynoQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Or how his hat collection controls the team.
RynoQuote Reply
@ GW:
I guess the Cubs wanted someone for Paniagua to hang out with
BerseliusQuote Reply
MylesQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
new shit
GWQuote Reply