Shawn pointed out in the comments that given the number of off-days, the Cubs can limit the 5th starter somewhat. But given that they’re spaced 7 days apart there will still be a few starts. Here’s how it maps out
- 4/6 Ryan Dempster
- OFF DAY
- 4/8 Carlos Zambrano
- 4/9 Matt Garza
- 4/10 Casey Coleman
- 4/11 Demp
- 4/12 5TH STARTER
- 4/13 Z
- OFF DAY
- 4/15 Garza
- 4/16 Coleman
- 4/17 Demp
- 4/18 Z
- 4/19 5TH STARTER
- 4/20 Garza
- OFF DAY
- 4/22 Demp
- 4/23 Z
- 4/24 Coleman
- 4/25 Garza
- 4/26 5TH STARTER
- 4/27 Demp
- 4/28 Z
- 4/29 Coleman
- 4/30 Garza
- 5/1 5TH STARTER
- 5/2 Demp
- 5/3 Z
- 5/4 Coleman
- OFF DAY
So 4 starts for whoever gets the gig.
mb21: Since we’re talking about the rest of the month, it seems a good time to post the expected win-loss record for the Cubs over the first month of the season. We’ve used the RLYW projections blowout to get the projected winning percetages for the Cubs and the teams they play. Once we have that, we can use Bill James log5 method to calculate expected wins (adjusting for home field advantage). The projections blowout had the Cubs at 80 wins. With the loss of Andrew Cashner and Randy Wells, let’s say they lost 2 wins. It’s highly unlikely they lost that many, but let’s work with that one anyway. So for the first 5 games they had an expected total wins of 80 and the rest of the month it is 78. Here’s how the month works out (h/t to RLYW).
| Date | Team | Ex.PcT | Cubs | xW | xL | txW | txL | tW | tL |
| 4/1 | Pirates | 0.433 | 0.493 | 0.61 | 0.39 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0 | 1 |
| 4/2 | Pirates | 0.433 | 0.493 | 0.61 | 0.39 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 1 | 1 |
| 4/3 | Pirates | 0.433 | 0.493 | 0.61 | 0.39 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 |
| 4/4 | Dbacks | 0.451 | 0.493 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 2 | 2 |
| 4/5 | Dbacks | 0.451 | 0.493 | 0.59 | 0.41 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 3 | 2 |
| 4/6 | Dbacks | 0.451 | 0.481 | 0.58 | 0.42 | 3.6 | 2.4 | ||
| 4/8 | at Brewers | 0.512 | 0.481 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 4.0 | 3.0 | ||
| 4/9 | at Brewers | 0.512 | 0.481 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 4.4 | 3.6 | ||
| 4/10 | at Brewers | 0.512 | 0.481 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 4.8 | 4.2 | ||
| 4/11 | at Astros | 0.407 | 0.481 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 5.4 | 4.6 | ||
| 4/12 | at Astros | 0.407 | 0.481 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 5.9 | 5.1 | ||
| 4/13 | at Astros | 0.407 | 0.481 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 6.4 | 5.6 | ||
| 4/15 | at Rockies | 0.512 | 0.481 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 6.8 | 6.2 | ||
| 4/16 | at Rockies | 0.512 | 0.481 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 7.3 | 6.7 | ||
| 4/17 | at Rockies | 0.512 | 0.481 | 0.42 | 0.58 | 7.7 | 7.3 | ||
| 4/18 | Padres | 0.488 | 0.481 | 0.54 | 0.46 | 8.2 | 7.8 | ||
| 4/19 | Padres | 0.488 | 0.481 | 0.54 | 0.46 | 8.8 | 8.2 | ||
| 4/20 | Padres | 0.488 | 0.481 | 0.54 | 0.46 | 9.3 | 8.7 | ||
| 4/22 | Dodgers | 0.516 | 0.481 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 9.8 | 9.2 | ||
| 4/23 | Dodgers | 0.516 | 0.481 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 10.3 | 9.7 | ||
| 4/24 | Dodgers | 0.516 | 0.481 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 10.8 | 10.2 | ||
| 4/25 | Rockies | 0.512 | 0.481 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 11.4 | 10.6 | ||
| 4/26 | Rockies | 0.512 | 0.481 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 11.9 | 11.1 | ||
| 4/27 | Rockies | 0.512 | 0.481 | 0.51 | 0.49 | 12.4 | 11.6 | ||
| 4/28 | at Dbacks | 0.451 | 0.481 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 12.9 | 12.1 | ||
| 4/29 | at Dbacks | 0.451 | 0.481 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 13.4 | 12.6 | ||
| 4/30 | at Dbacks | 0.451 | 0.481 | 0.49 | 0.51 | 13.8 | 13.2 |
Through 5 games, the Cubs were expected to win 3 games and lose 2. They’re record prior to today was exactly that. They’d played no better or no worse than expected against the lesser competition they’ve faced so far. The end of the month record is expected to be 14-13. It would be nice if the Cubs could instead be 3 to 4 wins over expectations. They’ll need to make up some ground somewhere and against the early schedule is when it will be easiest. Today isn’t going well so far. They trail 5-2 in the top of the 6th so it’s likely the Cubs end the day worse than we expected when the season started.
Comments
(dying laughing)
This is the type of timely analysis that I come to OV for.
GBTSQuote Reply
Soto’s OBP is now .250 BTW. But he’s hit a lot of balls hard for outs, as well as popped up a lot. Not sure what the deal is there. They’ve also been throwing him lots of strikes so I guess he can’t walk as much as he’d like to.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m not worried about Soto yet. Like you said, he’s hitting it hard. It’s only six games.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I am drunk
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
At least Demp didn’t walk anyone today.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]At least Demp didn’t walk anyone today.[/quote]
ERA + FIP —-> down
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Will Carroll has breaking news. He says Andrew Cashner hasn’t eaten since lunch, and the team believes he could be “very hungry.”
GBTSQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/06/mark-cuban-pays-a-visit-to-the-hbt-comments-section/
If you follow the links all the way through to Mark Cuban’s post and Calcaterra’s reply to that, you’ll see a local resident of Hobbiton is mentioned.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/06/mark-cuban-pays-a-visit-to-the-hbt-comments-section/
If you follow the links all the way through to Mark Cuban’s post and Calcaterra’s reply to that, you’ll see a local resident of Hobbiton is mentioned.[/quote]Just save us the treasure hunt and link us up. There’s multiple Cuban and Calcaterra posts.
/lazy non-latin
Suburban kidQuote Reply
You’ll have to be more clear about that, Mish.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Just save us the treasure hunt and link us up. There’s multiple Cuban and Calcaterra posts.
/lazy non-latin[/quote]Yes, exactly. I don’t care to read all that just to find one reference or comment.
mb21Quote Reply
As for Soto, he’s played all of 5 games. His OBP went down about 70 points today, which tells you how few plate appearances he has. I’ll worry about Soto after 120 or 150 more games.
Albert Pujols has a .237 OBP and a .247 wOBA (before today’s game). He had also played in 5 games. The Baltimore Orioles are on their way to a World championship if current numbers mean anything.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban Kid]Just save us the treasure hunt and link us up. There’s multiple Cuban and Calcaterra posts.
/lazy non-latin[/quote]BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
GBTSQuote Reply
That’s why Mish is our grittiest, most applauded poster. If internet browsing were a sport, his jersey would be filthy. (dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Yes, exactly. I don’t care to read all that just to find one reference or comment.[/quote]I don’t think the Senior Vice President of OV User Training remembered to show Mish where the quote button is above the comment box.
That really would have saved us all this trouble.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I could understand if it was one link and the article was long and had 18 comments, but not 3 articles with many more comments than that.
mb21Quote Reply
Saved all the trouble and at least 8 or 10 comments in this thread. (dying laughing)
mb21Quote Reply
I guess Mish reads every word of the Internet.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Al is calling for Chris Carpenter to get the 5th spot in the rotation.
As long as it’s 2009, I think Chris Archer should get it.
GBTSQuote Reply
The comment Mish referred to was about Phil Rogers presenting opinion as fact. I am a lazy Asian and will not link to it partly because I am mobile.
I am also aware that Soto has only played five games. But I also know that the Cubs are impatient and love their small samples.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
-Calcaterra
I don’t know if this is what Mish was referencing or not. I saw no mention of the hobbit just Rogers. Although as a beat writer the hobbit gives opinion which supports Calcaterra’s point of print journos being no more reputable than internet writers contrary to Cuban’s belief.
melissaQuote Reply
I was at the game. Soriano isn’t as lazy looking in person.
AndCountingQuote Reply
I understand why teams want the print media in the locker rooms, but people need to understand the majority of them are no different than the average blogger. They are definitely not as good as some of the better team bloggers around.
mb21Quote Reply
Given the outrage my comment incited, I’m goin to…idk. I thought both Rogers and sully were shire folk?
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]That’s why Mish is our grittiest, most applauded poster. If internet browsing were a sport, his jersey would be filthy. (dying laughing)[/quote]Fuck you too (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Given the outrage my comment incited, I’m goin to…idk. I thought both Rogers and sully were shire folk?[/quote](dying laughing) I wasn’t outraged. I was just curious what was said and was way too lazy to read it all.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]I was at the game. Soriano isn’t as lazy looking in person.[/quote]
False. That can’t be debated.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]False. That can’t be debated.[/quote]Correct.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]False. That can’t be debated.[/quote]
Is this because Al stares at Soriano all the time from his throne in the bleachers?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]False. That can’t be debated.[/quote]My opinion is not wrong.
AndCountingQuote Reply
New correctness: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/searching-for-a-ray-of-sunshine-in-an-otherwise-craptastic-day.html
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=AndCounting]My opinion is not wrong.[/quote]
Do you have a source? If so, it’s not your opinion, it’s fact.
melissaQuote Reply
Long time lurker, first time poster. Thanks for setting up a new blog with a comment function that, you know, doesn’t blow goats!
uncle daveQuote Reply