•   Follow us
  •   Become a fan
  •   Contact
  •   RSS
  • The Stats We Use: Baserunning

    Believe it or not, baserunning is a relatively simple aspect of the game to quantify. If you think for a moment about the possibilities in baserunning, there aren’t really that many of them. There are several of course, but it’s not as many as you may think. For example, a runner on 1st when a single is hit can move to 2nd or 3rd. On rare occasions he may move all around the bases. A runner could be on 2nd when a single is hit and he can go to 3rd or home. The baserunners could also be thrown out. There could be a baserunner at 1st when a double or triple is hit. There are stolen bases, caught stealings, pickoffs, and a number of others.

    That probably sounds like a lot and it’s more than I made it sound like at first. However, we have a run expectancy table to help us quantify the value of these baserunning events. Before we go further, the run expectancy table is the heart and soul of advanced baseball metrics. The run expectancy table tells us exactly how many runs have scored in the various situations. The run expectancy table isn’t anything new. It’s not a newfangled set of statistics or anything like that at all. George Lindsey was writing about the run expectancy tables in the early 1960s. It’s been around for a long time.

    Here’s the simplest of run expectancy tables using 1999 to 2002 data. Between those years at the start of an inning, teams averaged .555 runs that inning. If the first batter made an out, it decreased their RE to .297. That out cost the batting team the difference between those two in runs. With a runner on 1st and no outs, teams scored .953 runs. Imagine a single is hit. 1st and 2nd is 1.573 runs. Let’s say the baserunner goes 1st to 3rd on that single. The RE with runners on the corner and no outs is 1.904. The baserunner added the differene (1.904-1.573) in runs by going from 1st to 3rd rather than 1st to 2nd. That’s how many runs in that situation that baserunner provided his team. Imagine that same runner was thrown out at 3rd instead. The RE with 1st and 2nd is 1.573 runs again, but now there’s one out and only a runner on 1st base. The RE dropped to .573 runs. The baserunner cost his team exactly 1 run by trying to add the extra base. As you can see, the out is far more valuable than the extra base. It’s not even close. The extra base added .331 runs while the out was worth -1 run. The out in baseball is especially valuable once a batter reaches base.

    It’s why a lot of people aren’t huge fans of the stolen base. Stealing 2nd with noboby out adds .236 runs while getting thrown out at 2nd costs you .68 runs. It’s why people say you have to be successful close to 70% of the time to make it worthwhile.

    That table is the average. There are actually different run values depending on the state of the game. A successful stolen base in the 9th inning of a tie game is worth more. The same is true for other baserunning events. The close and later the game is, the more valuable those extra bases are. However, the outs are also more costly.

    Anyway, you simply apply the RE table (in-season of course) to the various possibilities. Baseball Prospectus provides Equivalent Baserunning Runs (EqBRR). It includes the number of runs a player was worth on balls hit on the ground or ones hit in the air. It includes the value of runs after an out was made, stolen bases and of course the outs made in the process. There are actually five different categories that are added to get EqBRR: Ground Advancement, Air Advancement, Stolen Bases, Hit Advancement and Out Advancement. The first thing you do is comb through the play by play data and find the number of opportunities in each area. Then you calculate the average for all players and compare each to the average player in terms of runs added or subtracted.

    If the average player went first to third on a hit X number of times while another player did it X+3 then he’s above average in that category. The same is true if a player advances on an out as well as the other categories more than the average player does so. Let’s say a player advanced from 1st to 3rd three more times than average. The value of those three additional bases is the difference between men on 1st and 2nd and men on 1st and 3rd times the number of times the player advanced above or below average. Making outs on the bases as well as stolen bases obviously affect baserunning. 

    There’s a little more to EQBRR than I’ve made it sound like. If you have a subscription to Baseball Prospectus you can find many of the links discussing each category in this article

    Few players each season are worth more than 6 runs on the bases. Last year there were only 10 and the year before just 5. Only 7 players have been worth -6 or fewer runs on the bases over the last two seasons. Most players are going to end up in the -2 to +2 range. Baserunning, at the team level especially, can be quite valuable. For a player like Carl Crawford, it’s certainly part of his value going forward (at least until he ages and the speed declines). It’s an important part of the offense that has to be added in when we’re looking for that one tell-all metric (WAR). 

    Berselius and I have written about the Cubs awful baserunning in the past. He did so on this blog. The Cubs, as a team, are nearly -50 EqBRR since 2006. That’s an average of -10 runs per season. A win is 10 runs, or 10.5 to be precise. The Cubs have cost themselves 5 wins over the last 5 seasons. Not that big of a deal when you think about it, but the Cubs are also very poor defensively. In two ways teams can improve noticeably, the Cubs are very bad at those areas. The Cubs are left looking for positive contributions from their offense and pitching. It hasn’t gone so well on the offensive side of things since the end of World Ward II. Since the end of the war, the Cubs have had exactly one season in which they have been better than league average on offense. That was 2008 and they were only a few percentage points better than the league average.

    Mike Quade made an intelligent decision at the end of spring training when he said the team would not be running as much. Earlier he had said they were going to be aggressive, but I’m guessing 7 stolen bases in all of spring training compared to 8 times being caught helped change mind. The best thing the Cubs can do to improve on the bases is to stop trying to steal them. They’re not good at it. No reason to insist on doing something you aren’t good at. I’m not good at surgery and I’m not insisting on performing one. Know your limitations. I’ve ripped on Quade before, but to me, that’s worth a lot.


    dmick89
    When I awoke, the Dire Wolf, six hundred pounds of sin, Was grinning at my window, all I said was "Come on in"
    dmick89
    JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 5-18-13 http://t.co/gwt7MajMPR - 8 hours ago
    dmick89
    Contact me here

    97 Responses to “The Stats We Use: Baserunning”

    1. 1 Suburban kid says:

      [quote name=mb21]There’s just too much wrong going on in that image.[/quote]Yes, but now the Kevin Millar thread is complete.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    2. 2 mb21 says:

      I was surprised someone else didn’t post it early in the thread.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    3. 3 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    4. 4 mb21 says:

      No she’s not!

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    5. 5 Berselius says:

      Kevin Millar disapproves that the May 13 lineup hasn’t been posted yet. WTF, Quade?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    6. 6 mb21 says:

      Reed Johnson hasn’t been told if he is going to pinch hit on September 9th either.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    7. 7 Suburban kid says:

      It’s almost as if Quade knew what the players didn’t like about Lou and bent over backwards to make sure he’d meet their expectations. I assume Millar had a word in his ear last August, too.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    8. 8 GBTS says:

      Many teams play songs when their team wins…
      no matter what place the team is in. It’s a celebration of the victory, nothing more, nothing less.

      Check out Chicago sports coverage at SB Nation Chicago
      by Al Yellon on Apr 3, 2011 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions

      (dying laughing)
      (dying laughing)
      Who on earth would think it was less?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    9. 9 Duey23 says:

      Yes, we need less TOOTBLANs this season. Thankfully with a certain midget now in St. Louis, they SHOULD go down across the board for the Cubs.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    10. 10 Rice Cube says:

      [quote name=Duey23]Yes, we need less TOOTBLANs this season. Thankfully with a certain midget now in St. Louis, they SHOULD go down across the board for the Cubs.[/quote]
      Darwin Barney is the new Theriot.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    11. 11 Suburban kid says:

      It’s why a lot of people aren’t huge fans of the stolen base. Stealing 2nd with noboby out adds .236 runs while getting thrown out at 2nd costs you .68 runs. It’s why people say you have to be successful close to 70% of the time to make it worthwhile.

      I think it was Moreland and Hughes talking about the Cubs and baserunning this year, and Moreland was saying 80% was the benchmark for the Cubs. He may have been making shit up, but if Quade and Dernier think that, then they must have a very good understanding of the cost of the CS.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    12. 12 Mish says:

      I actually thought it was slightly higher than 70%, but as a personal rule for all the years I managed a MLB team, I prefer closer to 80%.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    13. 13 AndCounting says:

      [quote name=GBTS](dying laughing)
      (dying laughing)
      Who on earth would think it was less?[/quote](dying laughing)
      But it is so much more. Celebration of victory, or celebration of the fulfillment–if you (or I) really think, deeply, about it–a fraction of a dream from which we may never wake up from, on a Tuesday; go, Cubs, go . . . indeed.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    14. 14 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      Wasn’t Dernier regarded as a really good baserunner when he played? I’d imagine any decisions about baserunning are going through him.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    15. 15 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Suburban Kid]I think it was Moreland and Hughes talking about the Cubs and baserunning this year, and Moreland was saying 80% was the benchmark for the Cubs. He may have been making shit up, but if Quade and Dernier think that, then they must have a very good understanding of the cost of the CS.[/quote]80% is a good mark if you’re wanting to create value out of the stolen base. At 70%, you’ll pretty much break even.

      It varies depending on the game state though. That’s important to consider just like everything else. The mark for stealing home is closer to 50%.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    16. 16 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      The Cubs should play “A Dying Cubs Fan’s Last Request” after every loss.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    17. 17 mb21 says:

      http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dernibo01.shtml

      Dernier was successful 77% of the time and he was worth 21 runs on the bases over his career, but almost all of that was within a 3 year period.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    18. 18 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The Cubs should play “A Dying Cubs Fan’s Last Request” after every loss.[/quote]I’d rather they play Terrapin Station. It would be worth buying Cubs tickets just to hear that song since I’d hear it about 55 times per year.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    19. 19 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=mb21]http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dernibo01.shtml

      Dernier was successful 77% of the time and he was worth 21 runs on the bases over his career, but almost all of that was within a 3 year period.[/quote]I was just looking at that. What an odd career. He’s also been the minor league baserunning coordinator since 2007, so…

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    20. 20 AndCounting says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The Cubs should play “A Dying Cubs Fan’s Last Request” after every loss.[/quote]Especially with Moreland in the booth.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    21. 21 mb21 says:

      Or Brown Sugar by the Stones. That’s such an uplifting tune. Just makes you feel good about the world, doesn’t it?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    22. 22 mb21 says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I was just looking at that. What an odd career. He’s also been the minor league baserunning coordinator since 2007, so…[/quote]Yeah, from what I’ve heard he’s quite knowledgeable when it comes to running the bases. The Cubs are better off with him having an influence in my opinion.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    23. 23 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=AndCounting]Especially with Moreland in the booth.[/quote](dying laughing)
      (dying laughing)
      (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    24. 24 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The Cubs should play “Friday” after every loss.[/quote].

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    25. 25 Dr. Aneus Taint says:


      The video cannot be shown at the moment. Please try again later.

      More than 84 million views now.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    26. 26 dylanj says:

      cause its a badass jam JG

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    27. 27 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      I think you’re misreading it because of your dislike of Soriano.
      Any player would like it better if his manager laid out his plans for said player, rather than not communicating. It’s not about having a day off. It’s how a manager respects his players, and vice versa.

      Check out Chicago sports coverage at SB Nation Chicago
      by Al Yellon on Apr 4, 2011 9:29 PM CDT up reply actions

      .

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    28. 28 Suburban kid says:

      In that convo, Moreland was talking about Dernier as a decision-maker on baserunning strategy. Says Dernier still wants to create a threat, or an illusion of a threat. Not sure how, if nobody actually runs.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    29. 29 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=dylanj]cause its a badass jam JG[/quote]
      Fun, fun, fun, fun

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    30. 30 dylanj says:

      gotta get my cereal girl

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    31. 31 Suburban kid says:

      [quote name=mb21]I’d rather they play Going Down the Road Feeling Bad. [/quote]Fixed for losingness.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    32. 32 Mish says:

      Looking at present day value from the 2006 draft class: http://bullpenbanter.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=404:net-gains-from-the-2006-draft&catid=18:articles&Itemid=11

      Note: Rays are raping the field.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    33. 33 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=Suburban Kid]In that convo, Moreland was talking about Dernier as a decision-maker on baserunning strategy. Says Dernier still wants to create a threat, or an illusion of a threat. Not sure how, if nobody actually runs.[/quote]Well, you can still unnerve a pitcher by taking big leads, moving around, etc. I also expect the Cubs to hit-and-run a lot more this season. Not sure if any of it really has any great effect, but a team as devoid of speed as the Cubs has to be creative in their approach on basepaths. Sounds like Dernier is up for the challenge.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    34. 34 AndCounting says:

      [quote name=mb21]I’d rather they play Koyie Hill.[/quote]Wish granted.

      Fukudome RF, Castro SS, Byrd CF, Ramirez 3B, Colvin 1B, Soriano LF, Barney 2B, Hill C, Cashner P

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    35. 35 mb21 says:

      I think the Cubs should just run from 1st to 3rd to see if anyone notices. If they can get away with a couple hundred times, this team has a chance.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    36. 36 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=AndCounting]Wish granted.

      Fukudome RF, Castro SS, Byrd CF, Ramirez 3B, Colvin 1B, Soriano LF, Barney 2B, Hill C, Cashner P[/quote]And so it begins. Also enojoying the employment of the double moroon.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    37. 37 Suburban kid says:

      DeWitt is in deep doghouse, because of ST.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    38. 38 AndCounting says:

      [quote name=Suburban Kid]DeWitt is in deep doghouse, because of ST.[/quote]It’s JG, now. /abbreviationpolice

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    39. 39 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=mb21]I think the Cubs should just run from 1st to 3rd to see if anyone notices. If they can get away with a couple hundred times, this team has a chance.[/quote]

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    40. 40 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=Suburban Kid]DeWitt is in deep doghouse, because of ST.[/quote]No kidding. Strange.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    41. 41 AndCounting says:

      I thought DeWitt had half the Cubs’ game-winning hits so far this year.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    42. 42 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=AndCounting]I thought DeWitt had half the Cubs’ game-winning hits so far this year.[/quote]Ari Kaplan agrees.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    43. 43 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=AndCounting]It’s JG, now. /abbreviationpolice[/quote]
      Yeah, and what exactly did I do to cause this?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    44. 44 Arthur Mitchell says:

      [quote name=Suburban Kid]DeWitt is in deep doghouse, because of ST.[/quote]
      Shut up, cunt.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    45. 45 Suburban kid says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]No kidding. Strange.[/quote]Soriano, Fukudome, Johnson and Hill sucked just as much ass.

      ST is different for rookies young players than veterans. Looks like Charles Darwin Barney Fife has at least a month or two to fuck up. Meanwhile, Quade still hasn’t let the guy who was the starter at the end of last year play the field.

      /nitpick, all i ever come here for

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    46. 46 Aisle424 says:

      Leave it to Al to take the side of Kevin Millar. I don’t remember the last time he was right about something.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    47. 47 GBTS says:

      [quote name=Aisle424]Leave it to Al to take the side of Kevin Millar. I don’t remember the last time he was right about something.[/quote]To his credit, he generally gets the final scores of the games correct in his recaps.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    48. 48 Aisle424 says:

      Oh good! Koyie is catching today!

      That’ll help the offense. Poor Cashner.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    49. 49 Aisle424 says:

      [quote name=GBTS]To his credit, he generally gets the final scores of the games correct in his recaps.[/quote]
      BCB: Where the final scores are almost always correct.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    50. 50 bubblesdachimp says:

      I fucking hate seeing Koyie Hill in the lineup.. He better not become Cashners personal catcher. It will lead me to despising cashner

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    51. 51 Phil Mitchell says:

      [quote name=Arthur Mitchell]Shut up, cunt.[/quote]Come down the Arches and say that.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    52. 52 bubblesdachimp says:

      I cant believe yall are getting your panties all in a twist over the DeWitt/Barney thing..

      If they offer similar bats why not take the guy whos defense is much superior

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    53. 53 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Suburban Kid]Soriano, Fukudome, Johnson and Hill sucked just as much ass.

      ST is different for rookies young players than veterans. Looks like Charles Darwin Barney Fife has at least a month or two to fuck up. Meanwhile, Quade still hasn’t let the guy who was the starter at the end of last year play the field.

      /nitpick, all i ever come here for[/quote]
      I don’t really care all that much about the Blake Dewitt decision. Barney is projected to be worse than DeWitt, even when you include his defense, and they’re the same age so it’s not like he has the advantage there. But we’ve seen what DeWitt can do in the majors, and the answer is not much. His wOBAs in his 3 years in the bigs are .319, .271 (in v small sample size), and .311. He has a rep as a starter because he was pressed into the gig because LAD didn’t have anyone better, not because he hit his way into the job or anything.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    54. 54 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Aisle424]Oh good! Koyie is catching today!

      That’ll help the offense. Poor Cashner.[/quote]
      Someone has to prevent all those errors with Pena out of the lineup.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    55. 55 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=Aisle424]Leave it to Al to take the side of Kevin Millar. I don’t remember the last time he was right about something.[/quote]I wouldn’t hold my breath waiting for the next time, either.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    56. 56 Berselius says:

      [quote name=bubblesdachimp]I cant believe yall are getting your panties all in a twist over the DeWitt/Barney thing..

      If they offer similar bats why not take the guy whos defense is much superior[/quote]
      The platoon stuff is what makes the bigger difference, bubbles, but I kind of agree with you. It’s like choosing between a .7 WAR guy and a .4 WAR guy. They both suck, I’d rather see Barney play defense and not hit anywhere higher than 8th.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    57. 57 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Aisle424]BCB: Where the final scores are almost always correct.[/quote]
      Correct.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    58. 58 WaLi says:

      [quote name=mb21]I’d rather they play Terrapin Station. It would be worth buying Cubs tickets just to hear that song since I’d hear it about 55 times per year.[/quote]
      That would be awesome.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    59. 59 Jimmy. says:

      [quote name=Phil Mitchell]Come down the Arches and say that.[/quote]
      I used to fuck guys like you in prison.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    60. 60 Berselius says:

      [quote name=bubblesdachimp]I fucking hate seeing Koyie Hill in the lineup.. He better not become Cashners personal catcher. It will lead me to despising cashner[/quote]
      If he is, then I think that’s great. Since Cashner’s the 5th starter that means he’ll be skipped every once in awhile. It would mean Geo gets a lot more starts. You have to rest Soto sometime.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    61. 61 Phil Mitchell says:

      [quote name=Jimmy.]I used to fuck guys like you in prison.[/quote]

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    62. 62 Suburban kid says:

      Like I said, I was only nitpciking about DeWitt. I just figure he deserves to play as much or more than Barney, and is still young enough to have a little upside.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    63. 63 Aisle424 says:

      @emarsh76 @bleedcubbieblue Safety net going up in front of the stands near 1B now.
      2 minutes ago via TweetDeck
      .harrypav
      Harry Pavlidis

      @harrypav what kind of safety net?
      1 minute ago via txt
      .bleedcubbieblue
      Al Yellon

      (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    64. 64 Suburban kid says:

      [quote name=Aisle424](dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    65. 65 Aisle424 says:

      I would have seriously wet my pants with laughter if he had asked if it was like a safety net.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    66. 66 Jimmy. says:

      [quote name=Phil Mitchell][/quote]

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    67. 67 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=Aisle424](dying laughing)[/quote]
      Is it like a safety net?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    68. 68 AndCounting says:

      [quote name=Jame Gumb]Is it like a safety net?[/quote]Is that like a safety dance?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    69. 69 bubblesdachimp says:

      [quote name=Berselius]The platoon stuff is what makes the bigger difference, bubbles, but I kind of agree with you. It’s like choosing between a .7 WAR guy and a .4 WAR guy. They both suck, I’d rather see Barney play defense and not hit anywhere higher than 8th.[/quote]
      I dont nkow. And i know i will be called a fag for this but why dont we jsut let Baker play? I mean is one turrible year against RHP enough to say he cant hit them?

      I jsut think DeWitts defense is so bad that with our offense we should be pretty big into run prevention (which barney does better than dewitt) so as to minimize our offense. No one around there here parts would argue Barney isnt much better than Dewitt at second yes?

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    70. 70 bubblesdachimp says:

      [quote name=Berselius]If he is, then I think that’s great. Since Cashner’s the 5th starter that means he’ll be skipped every once in awhile. It would mean Geo gets a lot more starts. You have to rest Soto sometime.[/quote]
      Just wish we had someone on the roster not named Koyie Hill. Shit i wish we still had Jake Fox to backup Soto.. .

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    71. 71 bubblesdachimp says:

      [quote name=Aisle424](dying laughing)[/quote]
      (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    72. 72 Berselius says:

      [quote name=bubblesdachimp]I dont nkow. And i know i will be called a fag for this but why dont we jsut let Baker play? I mean is one turrible year against RHP enough to say he cant hit them?

      I jsut think DeWitts defense is so bad that with our offense we should be pretty big into run prevention (which barney does better than dewitt) so as to minimize our offense. No one around there here parts would argue Barney isnt much better than Dewitt at second yes?[/quote]
      Barney is waaaaaaay better defensively. He’s SS, DeWitt is only a 3b.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    73. 73 mb21 says:

      Here’s the thing with 2nd base: they all suck. The 2 RHB platoon is funny because it makes me laugh. However, choosing between any one of those guys to play full-time, part-time or not at all doesn’t make any difference. If DeWitt played every day he’d be worth 0 WAR. If Baker played every day you’re maybe looking at 1 WAR and that assumes he improves against righties. If you platoon Baker and DeWitt you’re looking at a little over 1 WAR. Barney and Baker? About 1 WAR.

      Doesn’t matter what you do. We’re talking about a position that has 3 players who mostly suck. Writing as much as I have about this position is depressing because it just doesn’t matter. Replacement level or 1 WAR. That’s the difference. The Cubs aren’t going to lose this division or the Wild Card by 1 game.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    74. 74 bubblesdachimp says:

      So my best friend from college (your future 2011 NCAAF champion South Carolina Gamecocks) is a huge Orioles fan. Jake Fox is the only person outside of Wieters that can catch on that roster… Unbelievable

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    75. 75 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=mb21]The 2 RHB platoon is funny because it makes me laugh.[/quote]
      Reverse that.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    76. 76 WaLi says:

      So a person just put up tickets on our company intranet for the Cubs game tomorrow. The price? Free to first person who e-mails him.

      I feel bad for Al :(

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    77. 77 mb21 says:

      [quote name=WaLi]So a person just put up tickets on our company intranet for the Cubs game tomorrow. The price? Free to first person who e-mails him.

      I feel bad for Al :( [/quote]Al is going to throw one hell of a fit if he hears about that. Quick, someone go tell Al about it.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    78. 78 dylanj says:

      You know its really amazing how Ricketts could fuck up such easy money. Keep ticket prices within reason, keep your payroll up to show the fans you give a shit and that park sells out year in and year out. But they had to try and squeeze jusssst a little more out of the fans and now they are dealing with a negative perception.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    79. 79 Berselius says:

      [quote name=WaLi]So a person just put up tickets on our company intranet for the Cubs game tomorrow. The price? Free to first person who e-mails him.

      I feel bad for Al :( [/quote]
      FWIW, Al wouldn’t complain about those tickets because SOMEONE presumably paid full price for them. I think the same goes for those $1 StubHub tickets that are floating around, though who knows how many of them are coming from the Cubs-controlled ticket brokers.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    80. 80 Berselius says:

      [quote name=dylanj]You know its really amazing how Ricketts could fuck up such easy money. Keep ticket prices within reason, keep your payroll up to show the fans you give a shit and that park sells out year in and year out. But they had to try and squeeze jusssst a little more out of the fans and now they are dealing with a negative perception.[/quote]
      Seriously. If you just drop the price of a cup of beer by a buck the fans would be ecstatic. That’s PR though – winning is what lures people to the ballpark.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    81. 81 dylanj says:

      the Rangers ownership group has it figured out, they have made almost all the right moves since they took over.

      Tommy Boy………

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    82. 82 dylanj says:

      Winning is one thing B but this is the Cubs- if you at least make the effort to be competitive you will still sells a ton of tickets. But right now they have a lot of negative perception via the ball park thing, the team sucking ass, their failure to sell fans on the concept that they need to shed payroll while raising prices the entire time.

      Cubs fans are loyal/delusional but even they have a limit.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    83. 83 Mercurial Outfielder says:

      [quote name=dylanj]Winning is one thing B but this is the Cubs- if you at least make the effort to be competitive you will still sells a ton of tickets. But right now they have a lot of negative perception via the ball park thing, the team sucking ass, their failure to sell fans on the concept that they need to shed payroll while raising prices the entire time.

      Cubs fans are loyal/delusional but even they have a limit.[/quote]Yeah, but the warm weather months are the true test. If we’re seeing this many empty seats and free/discounted tix in June-Aug, this org is serious trouble.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    84. 84 Aisle424 says:

      [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Yeah, but the warm weather months are the true test. If we’re seeing this many empty seats and free/discounted tix in June-Aug, this org is serious trouble.[/quote]
      That will be the true test. If they are out of it by June (which is entirely plausible), the attendance in the warm months could very well still suck. It won’t be 26,000 like yesterday, but they’ll be announcing figures like 32,000 and that is only a little better than 75% capacity. Tommy’s revenue models probably figured mostly a 90% attendance capacity.

      Plus the television ratings are going to drop again and that will hurt their ability to convince advertisers on the Cubs only TV network they want to eventually launch. This is bad news for the Ricketts and they are prolonging their own pain by doing this half-contend, half-rebuild strategy that they thought would fool everyone.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    85. 85 Aisle424 says:

      Meanwhile, Ivy Chat Chuck believes that they can recoup most lost revenue by slashing payroll again next year and I think he’s probably right. But they can only slash payroll so much considering the farm system isn’t going to let them fill departing veterans’ places at a level that justifies the top average ticket price in the majors. Chuck gives them until 2013 until they are royally fucked, and that seems about right based on where they are headed at the moment.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    86. 86 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Aisle424]Meanwhile, Ivy Chat Chuck believes that they can recoup most lost revenue by slashing payroll again next year and I think he’s probably right. But they can only slash payroll so much considering the farm system isn’t going to let them fill departing veterans’ places at a level that justifies the top average ticket price in the majors. Chuck gives them until 2013 until they are royally fucked, and that seems about right based on where they are headed at the moment.[/quote]
      I don’t remember if it was Chuck or GM who floated the idea yesterday that they might put the team up for sale again if they start drowning on their debt obligations.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    87. 87 Berselius says:

      HJ Lee ——-> chicken pox. They’re a bitch if you get them as an adult.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    88. 88 Dr. Aneus Taint says:

      [quote name=dylanj]the Rangers ownership group has it figured out, they have made almost all the right moves since they took over.

      Tommy Boy………[/quote]
      Most ownership groups have.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    89. 89 Berselius says:

      [quote name=Berselius]I don’t remember if it was Chuck or GM who floated the idea yesterday that they might put the team up for sale again if they start drowning on their debt obligations.[/quote]
      Come to think of it, it would be pretty awesome if they put the team back up and Cuban swooped in and bought it for 60 cents on the dollar (dying laughing)

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    90. 90 Suburban kid says:

      [quote name=Berselius]Come to think of it, it would be pretty awesome if they put the team back up and Cuban anyone swooped in and bought it for 60 cents on the dollar (dying laughing)[/quote].

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    91. 91 Suburban kid says:

      [quote name=Berselius]HJ Lee ——-> chicken pox. They’re a bitch if you get them as an adult.[/quote]I’m the exception that disproves the rule. I had a very mild case at the age of 30.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    92. 92 Aisle424 says:

      [quote name=Berselius]I don’t remember if it was Chuck or GM who floated the idea yesterday that they might put the team up for sale again if they start drowning on their debt obligations.[/quote]
      I think it was GM and Chuck mentioned the slashing of payroll to meet the debt obligations. They’ll do that before they sell again.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    93. 93 mb21 says:

      I’d bet about anything the Cubs further slash payroll after this season. About the only way I see them not doing that is if they get lucky this year and contend.

      I still don’t understand why the team didn’t just rebuild. How hard is it to tell the fans that you’re not going to be very good for a few years, but the talent you got in all of those trades are part of a plan to be good every single season? Can’t be that hard. Other teams do it.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    94. 94 Berselius says:

      [quote name=mb21]I’d bet about anything the Cubs further slash payroll after this season. About the only way I see them not doing that is if they get lucky this year and contend.

      I still don’t understand why the team didn’t just rebuild. How hard is it to tell the fans that you’re not going to be very good for a few years, but the talent you got in all of those trades are part of a plan to be good every single season? Can’t be that hard. Other teams do it.[/quote]
      Cubs fans are morans who think we’ll turn into the Pirates…even if we’re already on that road anyway (dying laughing).

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    95. 95 Aisle424 says:

      [quote name=mb21]I’d bet about anything the Cubs further slash payroll after this season. About the only way I see them not doing that is if they get lucky this year and contend.

      I still don’t understand why the team didn’t just rebuild. How hard is it to tell the fans that you’re not going to be very good for a few years, but the talent you got in all of those trades are part of a plan to be good every single season? Can’t be that hard. Other teams do it.[/quote]
      I think they truly believed they could rebuild and sell contention at the same time. It is hard to sell fans on a minor league lineup when they are selling tickets at elite prices.

      Pittsburgh does it, but you can sometimes get a ticket from their box office for a dollar. The Cubs made a big deal that they had certain sections for certain games at under $20.

      12 of the 19 different seat areas in Pittsburgh are $20 or under. You can sit behind the dugout for $32. $32 won’t even get you into the bleachers at Wrigley except when they’re having a sale. The Ricketts didn’t want to take ticket prices down, because they know they need them to go up significantly in the future for this whole house of cards to stand. It’s a bad situation for them, but they got themselves into it by overvaluing this team and not understanding the market for their product.

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    96. 96 bubblesdachimp says:

      I think we will contend this year…

      Dont see a reason why not after 4 games

      Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0

    Leave a Reply

    RSS Obstructed View Forum