We figured we may as well have a free agent contest this offseason. The winner will get 5 free subscriptions to Obstructed View along with bragging rights for a full calendar year. I took the top free agents from this article. I took out Dan Haren because I can't imagine his option not being exercised. Here are the top 15 free agents according to that author and that's good enough for our little contest (not all potential free agents are included, just the ones that are likely to reach free agency):
1. Josh Hamilton
2. Zack Greinke
3. BJ Upton
4. Edwin Jackson
5. Michael Bourn
6. Nick Swisher
7. Jake Peavy
8. Anibal Sanchez
9. David Ortiz
10. Hiroki Kuroda
11. Mariano Rivera
12. Ryan Dempster
13. Mike Napoli
14. Adam LaRoche
15. Kyle Lohse
The free agent you're most certain of will get 15 points all the way down to 1 for the one you are least certain of. For example:
Mariano Rivera, Yankees, 15
Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees, 14
Michael Bourn, Braves, 13
Kyle Lohse, Cubs, 12
etc.
I'm more certain that Rivera will sign with the Yankees than I am that Lohse will sign with the Cubs.
Mariano Rivera, Yankees (15)
David Ortiz, Red Sox (14)
Zack Greinke, Angels (13)
Ryan Dempster, Dodgers (12)
Anibal Sanchez, Tigers (11)
Adam LaRoche, Baltimore (10)
BJ Upton, Tigers (9)
Josh Hamilton, Giants (8)
Edwin Jackson, White Sox (7)
Nick Swisher, Angels (6)
Hiroki Kuroda, Yankees (5)
Michael Bourn, Phillies (4)
Kyle Lohse, Cardinals (3)
Mike Napoli, Yankees (2)
Jake Peavy, White Sox (1)
from the article:
“Also absent is Mark Reynolds. He is not eligible for free agency, though there’s a good chance he’ll be non-tendered this winter.”
probably a really dumb question but what does this mean?
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I think it was poorly worded. He has a 2013 club option. If they buy him out he should be a free agent.
Rany sez:
Everything I just wrote has been invalidated
@ Rice Cube:
yeah that’s what i had originally thought prior to reading that article. thanks.
I’ll go with whatever mb picks but swap confidence levels 9 and 10. (dying laughing)
Me, Drunk (15)
Me, Being Polite (1)
No one else is playing the free agent game? Now I feel really nerdy and alone.
Speaking of nerdy (and awesome):
http://webusers.npl.illinois.edu/~a-nathan/pob/HighSpeedClips.html
Cubs use money saved on Carlos Silva to sign them all (15)
@ Rice Cube:
look on the bright side, you’re in first place. you can sell those OV suscriptions on ebay for a fuckload of cash.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I was thinking I’d frame them. Maybe bronze one.
@ Rice Cube:
I have enough trouble keeping up with the Cubs. I have no idea what the White Sox are doing, even, let alone the Yankees and the Rays and whoever.
Sweaty Boobs Anal Sex (15)
Cubs Baseball (1)
@ jtsunami:
One or both of those better involve the PIzza Hut MILF.
mikeakaleroy wrote:
Her name is Wanda.
@ Alvin:
Thanks. I do like them crispy.
http://www.nctimes.com/blogsnew/sports/padres/padres-insider-expect-decisions-soon/article_474fe9b0-77d4-51e3-8301-d6d098eb1021.html
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18730
@ jtsunami:
YDREV
@ mb21:
This is probably much more ridiculous than whenever Miguel Cabrera gets named MVP over Trout.
Apropos to nothing:
So was berselius lying about the game being rained out?
@ Suburban kid:
That was the rumor, though it’s been mostly sunny with some spotty clouds out here ever since about 10:00 this morning. I predict that they go off more or less on schedule, but have to either play through rain that’s way heavier than ideal or else have a delay at some point during the game.
RC is the only one to fill it out. (dying laughing) Is this even a baseball blog?
My guess is that if they think there’s a good chance of rain then they don’t even start it.
uncle dave wrote:
Do you have a source?
@ mb21:
I’m probably 99% wrong too.
@ Alvin:
Nice snark.
@ mb21:
There’s rain in the forecast through Wednesday, so I’m not sure they have a choice. Say, did the AL or NL win the celebrity softball match this year? If SF winds up winning and they have to start the series out here, there might be further delays. We could be playing until mid-November (dying laughing).
@ uncle dave:
Baseball in November. I won’t complain.
Why does my tv guide thingy say the game goes from 6:30 to 9:30, but the game doesn’t start until 7?
@ mb21:
GRIPPING PREGAME COMMENTARY
@ mb21:
Uh, pregame! The most important part of the game, duh!
NARRATIVES AND DRAMA!
@ josh:
Apparently the Giants have never won a Game Seven. Is that really true? If so I fear for tonight’s results…
@ uncle dave:
Yeah, but I’m wondering why it’s only scheduled to go until 9:30. When was the last playoff game that lased just 2.5 hours? Has a game 7 ever been that short?
@ Rice Cube:
I doubt they’ve played that many game 7s.
@ mb21:
The last one they lost was in 2002. I remember this because I was very displeased.
I’ll bite. But these are all off the cuff guesses with absolutely no research. I should just put all the teams names in a hat and draw with replacement. And I didn’t really look at the other lists.
7. Josh Hamilton: Yankees
6. Zack Greinke: Boston
5. BJ Upton: Baltimore
14. Edwin Jackson: Cubs
4. Michael Bourn: Cubs
9. Nick Swisher: Miami
11. Jake Peavy: Miami
3. Anibal Sanchez: Detroit
1. David Ortiz: Toronto
10. Hiroki Kuroda: Anaheim
15. Mariano Rivera: Yankees
12. Ryan Dempster: White Sox
2. Mike Napoli: Atlanta
13. Adam LaRoche: Houston
8. Kyle Lohse: Kansas City
Possibly a more enticing contest would be to take the Cubs pitchers on the 40-man roster and DL predict which of them will be on the team on opening day. One could add which FA/Rule 5/minor leaguers might also make the opening day roster.
@ mb21:
Not one broadcast on Fox, no.
15 Mariano Rivera: Yankees
14 Hiroki Kuroda: Yankees
13 David Ortiz: Red Sox
12 Ryan Dempster: Cubs
11 Anibal Sanchez: Cubs
10 Adam LaRoche: Mariners
9 Kyle Lohse: Mets
8 Mike Napoli: Yankees
7 Edwin Jackson: Braves
6 Josh Hamilton: Red Sox
5 Zack Greinke: Red Sox
4 BJ Upton: Giants
3 Nick Swisher: Rangers
2 Michael Bourn: Astros
1 Jake Peavy: Angels
Berselius wrote:
O RLY
It’s wishful thinking for Sanchez, but I think the Dempster signing is inevitable. Though I’m probably the only Cub fan that has mostly forgotten the whole blindsided fiasco (dying laughing).
I like this start
This one-run lead is most precarious.
Yadier Molina is 4 for 7 in Game Sevens, so he obviously knows what he’s doing.
Matt Cain, how can you throw a baseball through a deep dish pizza yet can’t find the strike zone right now?
/totally different skills
Anyone here read The Signal And The Noise yet? I’m about halfway done and have really liked it so far. If I have a complaint it’s that I could do without the patting on the back that Nate has done several times. Early in the book he pats himself and PECOTA on the back for Dustin Pedroia (scouts weren’t that high on him, PECOTA loved him). I really wished he’d had mentioned the complete and total failure of PECOTA when it came to Matt Weiters.
@ Rice Cube:
I think they’re identical skills. (dying laughing)
Molina was safe, but that was close.
@ Berselius:
I don’t see Dempster returning though I do think the Cubs grab a couple starters on that list (I’m leaning toward Sanchez and Lohse).
Cain’s pitch count looks a bit ominous. Do you bring Lincecum in if you need a couple of innings here?
WHEW
@ uncle dave:
All hands on deck tonight. I think Lincecum is fireman #1 and Bumgarner is fireman #2.
@ Rice Cube:
Agreed. Regardless of how tonight’s pitcher usage goes, I might be inclined to punt game 1 anyway (whether I’m the Cards or Giants). Sacrifice the games against Verlander and give your stronger pitchers a shot against lesser competition.
@ mb21:
I think Sanchez is the guy they should want, but Loshe is who they will have to settle for
is there voice recognition software that can filter out all comments by Tim McCarver?
@ SVB:
Yes, it’s called the mute button. Works on Joe Buck, too…
@ Berselius:
Agreed, at least on the first part…
@ Berselius:
I’d much rather have Sanchez of course, but I have a feeling the Cubs get him and Lohse.
Here’s another prediction: the Upton brothers are playing next to one another at Wrigley.
@ mb21:
That was a recent prediction I enjoyed.
@ mb21:
Your predictions are intriguing to me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter
Giants have been all about pitcher RBI (dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
I’m better at predictions too because I’m halfway through Nate’s new book. You should take them more seriously than you would have two days ago.
We need more runs. I won’t feel safe until the Cardinals are down by 15 runs.
This may be a stupid question, but I trust that ya’ll will make fun of me accordingly. Does the catcher ever call any pitches by himself anymore? It seems every game I watch, after every pitch, he’s looking in at the manager who is giving him signals. Is that for pitch choice, or maybe only for when runners are on base?
@ Berselius:
I’m sure Buck or McCarver will tell us a team’s winning percentage when a pitcher collects an RBI. Naturally it will be high, but they’ll be surprised it is.
@ mikeakaleroy:
Some catchers call the pitchers. Molina is one of them. I’m sure he looks in the dugout for pitch outs and that stuff, but the Cardinals have said before that it’s his game to call out there. Not sure about Posey. He’s probably getting the pitches from the dugout, but Matt Cain is calling his own game tonight.
Scutaro —> NLCS MVP methinks
OMG OFFENSE
/dies
Kyle Lohse out of the game early. All hands on deck.
Let’s get some runs
(dying laughing) @ the Cardinals
Holy BABIP!
(dying laughing) at Cardinals. Again.
Always go for the outs, Petey…
Giants win% currently at 99%
@ Berselius:
Does that take Cardinals black magic into account?
I’d love for a bases-clearing double here.
The Cardinals defense is (dying laughing)o(dying laughing)o(dying laughing)o(dying laughing)o(dying laughing)
They forgot to renew their black magic certificate for today.
The Giants score all their runs during Bears game commercials, too.
But seriously I am loving this implosion.
Panda didn’t hit it where they ain’t
@ Berselius:
anyone who wears glasses like that deserves to get rocked for 8000 runs.
I flipped over the debate during the commercial. Supposed to be a foreign policy debate. Instead, they’re talking class sizes in America. I think these politicians need to be hooked up to machines that send them electrical shocks when they go off topic. Or say something really stupid for that matter. Not only would it keep the debate on topic, but it would be a little fun to watch these guys suffer a bit.
@ mb21:
In that case, it would just be 2 hours of electrocutions, which would actually be great.
@ mb21:
When they were actually talking foreign policy, the debate has basically boiled down to Romney saying that Obama’s policies are terrible, then paraphrasing and agreeing with all of them.
http://www.mlbgifs.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/HunterPenceTripleHit.gif
@ Berselius:
So it like every other debate in the last 30 years? I’m quite surprised because I really thought this one was going to be different (dying laughing)
@ Aisle424:
I had to go to the story because the pic link was busted, but Pence totally jai alai’ed that ball (dying laughing)
(laughing)
Another 1-2 innings for Cain. Feeling pretty good about this lead at this point.
@ mikeakaleroy:
(dying laughing)
EDIT: I guess you can’t hotlink fangraphs win probabilty graphs anymore.
@ mb21:
You have to account for the Cardinals’ magical team-wide ability to come from behind in elimination games.
@ mikeakaleroy:
(dies laughing)
@ Berselius:
The Cardinals black magic was unhappy with the 99.3% WE
@ Aisle424:
I like that you can see the shock wave hit his hand. That looks fucking painful.
@ josh:
For those too lazy to click through
EDIT: Or not (dying laughing)
ARe they not showing highlight videos? WtF?
Tonight is a night of sports I recently enjoyed. And Founders Breakfast stout is a beer I recently enjoyed
@ Akabari:
I’ve had one of those each Saturday morning for each of the last 4 weekends. Pretty damn tasty. Currently enjoying a 2011 Bourbon County Stout.
@ mikeakaleroy:
You know I used to live in Michigan and had every one of their beers besides this one before this year. I should save one for breakfast in the weekend. Or not. But how is the Bourbon County? Are you a fan?
@ Akabari:
It’s definitely a sipping beer. 14.5% abv… I’ve got a couple from 2010 and a couple from 2011 cellaring now. Probably won’t open the 2010′s for another couple of years. You have to like stout and whiskey.
@ josh:
It’s a FOX game. Neither ESPN nor FOX allows in-game highlights for some stupid reason. Probably legal.
@ Rice Cube:
Wonder if that’ll get changed with the new deals with MLB.
Hard to top bourbon-barrel beers
If things hold, we’ll see our first Giants/Tigers World Series. Far better than our 4th Tigers/Cardinals Series.
@ SVB:
I think if the Giants win this would be their 19th pennant which would break a tie with the Dodgers and Cards for most in NL history…
@ Rice Cube:
Yes, and make them second in number of WS appearances. After some other team.
@ SVB:
That other team is pretty good.
I’m glad that Mother Nature decided to hang back so that this ass-kicking could go on.
Five outs to go. What could go wrong?
@ uncle dave:
You are the worst kind of evil.
I fucking swear to god, SF..
I can’t help it. These situations are basically unbearable due to the mountain of fail I’ve had to witness from the Cubs.
@ uncle dave:
This has to be a 99.7% chance or more of winning now right?
Lulz. 100.0% now. I think they’re rounding up.
@ Rice Cube:
Now it’s at 103%. (laughing)
@ mikeakaleroy:
I’ll take it!
John Tudor is trashing the visitors clubhouse in Kauffman Stadium right now.
Oh there’s the rain (dying laughing)
Poor Cardinals fans. They haven’t seen their team win a World Series in what? Nearly 12 months now?
This is one of the thickest rain storms I’ve seen baseball played in. Pretty cool.
YAS
#deadbirds
@ Rice Cube:
Congrats.
@ uncle dave:
You got WS tix?
Sadly, no. Had some LCS tickets should Oakland have advanced, but alas.
Ryan Theriot captures his second straight NL pennant.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
It’s a team effort
Scutaro —> NLCS MVP
Erin Andrews>Ken Rosenthal, who reminds me of the detestable Jim Gray.
But I find ballplayers that don’t answer the question just as annoying as Presidential candidates who don’t answer questions. (Scutaro, that means you.)
@ Rice Cube:
It is what it is.
Holy wow. As someone who is prone to insane expletive-filled rants, this seems… extreme.
@ Aisle424:
It’s like playing Yahtzee with swear-cubes!
@ Aisle424:
He’s still go a ways to go to top AC’s Steve Clevenger rant on WTF (dying laughing)
@ Aisle424:
So you are booking him for Friday’s Wrigley Talk?
(dying laughing) @ Zito
Nice job, Giants:
@ GBTS:
That’s Mitt’s “You’re out!” gesture. He uses it right before he fires people.
@ GBTS:
You guys think Soriano is regretting saying no to the trade now?
I’m just going to post this again, cause why not?
@ SVB:
I’m sure he’s taken time out of his busy offseason schedule of nailing hot Latin women to worry about it.
15 Mariano Rivera (Yankees)
14 David Ortiz (Red Sox)
13 Ryan Dempster (Pirates)
12 Adam Laroche (Rays)
11 Michael Bourn (Reds)
10 Zack Grienke (Angels)
9 Edwin Jackson (Cubs)
8 Mike Napoli (Mets)
7 Hiroki Kuroda (Orioles)
6 Jake Peavy (Dodgers)
5 Kyle Loshe (Red Sox)
4 BJ Upton (Braves)
3 Anibal Sanchez (Rangers)
2 Josh Hamilton (Nationals)
1 Nick Swisher (Phillies)
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’m not sure how Cutler keeps getting up with the O-line we have.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Did Trump just say he caused Jeter to break his ankle?
@ WaLi:
This confirms that Donald Trump is evil.
@ Rice Cube:
Does evil-on-evil black magic truly count as evil?
@ Suburban kid:
Are you saying Derek Jeter is evil? Because I disagree
Can I just say how much I heart Brandon Marshall? I wish that was me putting that hat on his head.
@ WaLi:
Suh’s hit was legal, but it wasn’t clean and I expect he’ll be fined for it. Especially when you consider he’s on a streak of receiving fines (three straight games vs. Bears now) for dirty hits on Jay.
Jay is a tough SOB. Came back and played with bruised ribs while Suh, in typical fashion, disappeared from the game. Suh had 10.5 sacks as a rookie in 2010. He has 6.5 sacks total since then. He’s dirty and he’s not nearly as good as he could be, because all he wants to do is armbar a QB into the ground.
@ WaLi:
I think he’s saying Jeter selling his overpriced apt in Trump’s claptrap hovel for the rich and stupid, caused Jeter to break his ankle.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Yeah, I can’t believe he came back after that. FWIW, Suh seemed to be trying to apologize a couple different times. He’s known for that though, for hurting guys.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Bad real estate decisions —-> karma voodoo?
@ Rice Cube:
Trying to understand what Trump is saying is like trying to interpret farts. Just hold your nose and leave the room.
@ josh:
It’s more than a little disingenuous to try and go shake hands after doing the Superman celebration and screaming. Three straight games with dirty hits on the same guy.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/season-in-review-alfonso-soriano.html