I know that ACT, myself and another person (sorry for not remembering who) had a discussion awhile back on Mariano Rivera‘s rWAR. I had asked Tango about it and he explained the difficulty we were having in getting the same numbers thatn Baseball Reference has. There’s a big difference between his fWAR and rWAR and Tango explains why.
Obviously the two are calculated differently and we already knew that, but I figured we needed a new thread and this was a good article to highlight. I know I’ve recently come around to not wanting to use FIP in WAR so rWAR makes more sense to me. FIP is only a subset of what a pitcher does and it ignores everything other than strikeouts, walks and home runs. Yeah, a pitcher has control over those and much less control over the other stuff, but I want my seasonal WAR to be representative of how the pitcher has performed. That performance includes luck. We include it for batters so we may as well do the same for pitchers.
This doesn’t mean FIP is any less useful. It tells us what the pitcher has the most control over and that’s what is important in evaluating future performance.
[quote name=ACT]Pitch framing: another thing Soto is much better than Koyie Hill at: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15093/quoteJust wanted to reply to this so people could see the article.
Wow, I never don’t post just after new shit goes up.
Did you guys see this already?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-14981021
(dying laughing) that they picked the Cubs to represent all of baseball to a nation that can’t recognize any non-Yankees baseball team.
Anybody know if any of these guys any good?
Okay, now I actually have to read mb article since I think the other person bitching about reliever fWAR was me. (dying laughing)
That’s right, fang. It was you. Sorry for not remembering. (dying laughing)
Cool video, fang.
Sickels has rated some of them highly. A few of them were paid huge bucks (7 figures) so the potential is there.
[quote name=mb21]Just wanted to reply to this so people could see the article.[/quote]So if I’m reading that right, Koyie Hill has called less than half as many pitches as Soto but has cost more runs than Soto has saved?
From previous, I know most folks don’t like reading Bleacher Report but they did a good compilation of all the shitty MLB uniforms:
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/665453-mlb-power-rankings-the-25-worst-uniforms-in-baseball-history
Here’s the bright purple one MB suggested that the D’backs actually wore:
Eww. Also forgot that the Rockies had a purple fetish.
Ugh, so much of this comes down to the fact that nobody agrees what they want WAR to be. Descriptive or predictive? Adjusted for single seasons or designed to accumulate over a career? Best estimate of shit we don’t understand (defense) or just stick to good measurement of what we can measure well (offense)? The attitude that’s emerging as WAR finds its way onto ESPN is sort of like “who cares if there are thousands of kinds of sausage of vastly varying quality, let’s just call it a hot dog and eat it”.
The other thing that really stuck in my craw about my sand-in-chewing-gum discovery that LI is in reliever (f?)WAR is how to decide who gets the LI boost. Tango’s article makes it sound like only closers get the boost, since their superior talent is what makes managers reserve them for high-leverage situations (which most managers think only happen in the ninth inning). Does that mean Marshall doesn’t get the LI boost for 8th inning appearances just because Marmol “is” the team’s closer? What about Daniel Bard, who the Red Sox (correctly) keep reserved for the highest leverage situation of the game regardless of whether it happens in the ninth inning?
Does anybody know exactly when the “closer bonus” is applied? I’m not saying there couldn’t be a good way to do it, but I can certainly think of plenty of bad ways…
I lived in Phoenix when the Dbacks were getting ready to start their first season. I liked the uniforms and I don’t remember too many complaints about them from the locals.
I’m about 99% certain that all reliever WAR includes leverage, fang. Tango’s article was misleading, but I know it includes it for all relievers.
How do they normalize WAR so that at the end of the season, everyone is compared to the same scale as their peers (which I thought was one of the purposes of WAR)? My novice philosophy is that WAR should be more a measure of what has happened rather than as an evaluator. I’m not sure if I explained that right.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/jose_bautista_linguist_take_your_nose_out_of_the_dictionary_and_watch_the_g/
[quote name=Rice Cube]Here’s the bright purple one MB suggested that the D’backs actually wore:
Eww. Also forgot that the Rockies had a purple fetish.[/quote]If you ask me, that’s much less stupid than the muscle-tee long pyjamas they wore when they went all the way.
I blame Brenly. For everything.
WARP, on the other hand, does not include leverage.
Exactly. I don’t know why people want it to be predictive. It’s not a predictive stat. Some of the components may be, but I want WAR to represent what the player did as best as possible. I realize theoretical runs in rWAR is included, but it’s a hell of a lot better than looking only at 3 statistics.
[quote name=Rice Cube]How do they normalize WAR so that at the end of the season, everyone is compared to the same scale as their peers (which I thought was one of the purposes of WAR)? My novice philosophy is that WAR should be more a measure of what has happened rather than as an evaluator. I’m not sure if I explained that right.[/quote]WAR is always comparing players on the same scale.
Another thing that really does bother me is that WAR and a lot of the other new stats that are getting attention are ultimately proprietary. Even though the broad concepts are (haphazardly and unreliably) explained in public, the details obviously matter a lot.
More and more, when I read “Pujols has 7 fWAR”, I’m starting to mentally substitute “the staff at Fangraphs thinks Albert Pujols adds 7 wins more than somebody the staff at Fangraphs thinks could easily replace him”.
[quote name=fang2415]Another thing that really does bother me is that WAR and a lot of the other new stats that are getting attention are ultimately proprietary.[/quote]Actually, I take it back. The good ones (wOBA, FIP, ISO, the WPA family) are not proprietary in any real sense. (They’re tough to backward engineer exactly because of slight differences in weights and weird shit like SH and ROE, but it’s not hard to get very close.)
It’s mostly the ones that have problems that are proprietary, notable WAR and defensive metrics.
[quote name=fang2415]Another thing that really does bother me is that WAR and a lot of the other new stats that are getting attention are ultimately proprietary. Even though the broad concepts are (haphazardly and unreliably) explained in public, the details obviously matter a lot.
More and more, when I read “Pujols has 7 fWAR”, I’m starting to mentally substitute “the staff at Fangraphs thinks Albert Pujols adds 7 wins more than somebody the staff at Fangraphs thinks could easily replace him”.[/quote]The use of UZR in fWAR (UZR being a concept I don’t completely understand) seems to skew it a bunch. I also don’t know whether they explicitly defined the replacement level.
I trust the offensive components just fine. Baserunning is relatively easy to measure. Batting is too. Fielding is not. So I prefer batter WAR. I could calculate something as simple as Batting Runs, which makes perfect sense, and get similar results. Replacement level is a theory, but you have to compare to some baseline. I don’t care if it’s average, 2 wins below average or 55 wins below average. As long as you’re using the same baseline, it doesn’t matter. The fielding component bothers me a lot.
For pitchers, I want it to include more than 30 to 40% of what happens when a pitcher is on the mound. Using Run Average as Tango did in that example makes perfect sense. Factoring in the team defense isn’t that difficult. I have much more faith in team defense numbers than individual ones.
[quote name=Rice Cube]The use of UZR in fWAR (UZR being a concept I don’t completely understand) seems to skew it a bunch. I also don’t know whether they explicitly defined the replacement level.[/quote]Think of replacement level as you think of average. Replacement level in the NL is 2 wins worse than average per 700 plate appearances. It’s 2.5 wins worse than average in the AL (the AL is the superior league). If you see a guy who is 2 WAR over 700 plate appearances, he’s average. He’s 0 wins above average. If you see a guy in the AL who is 4.5 WAR, he’s 2.0 wins above average.
Replacement level is just a baseline like average. Replacement players are worse than average. Average ballplayers are every day players. You don’t replace an everyday player with someone else who is that good (usually).
[quote name=fang2415]If you ask me, that’s much less stupid than the muscle-tee long pyjamas they wore when they went all the way.
I blame Brenly. For everything.[/quote]
I feel like the DBacks or Rockies had some hideous vest-like uniform at some point.
You could call it Wins Above Barry Bonds if you wanted to. As long as you use that baseline for everyone, it doesn’t matter what you use.
[quote name=mb21]Exactly. I don’t know why people want it to be predictive. It’s not a predictive stat. Some of the components may be, but I want WAR to represent what the player did as best as possible. I realize theoretical runs in rWAR is included, but it’s a hell of a lot better than looking only at 3 statistics.[/quote]Meh, I can see the value of a predictive WAR-type thing. If you could turn back time and run the 2011 season a thousand times, how many fewer wins do you get on average if you replace Bautista with Tyler Colvin (dying laughing)? If I’m a GM, that’s very useful.
You’re right that I can look at the components to get a good idea of that, but wins are a convenient unit, especially since I know how many dollars a win is worth. But units can be used for different purposes, and mixing them up and just calling it “WAR” is asking for trouble.
At the moment, “WAR” is almost as meaningless as “MVP”. What does it mean? Depends who you’re talking to, and when.
[quote name=mb21]You could call it Wins Above Barry Bonds if you wanted to. As long as you use that baseline for everyone, it doesn’t matter what you use.[/quote]WAR would look like golf scores then.
Starlin Castro, in his career, is -169 WABB.
[quote name=Rice Cube]WAR would look like golf scores then.[/quote]Except being too far under par would be a very bad thing. If Koyie Hill were a golfer he’d be getting a green jacket.
[quote name=mb21]Starlin Castro, in his career, is -169 WABB.[/quote]
BUST
If you did Wins Above Barry Bonds, it would actually reward the player for sitting on the bench. Every day he plays, he’ll dig himself into a deeper hole.
Fang, what I mean is that you can use the component to get a predicted WAR. Say you have a guy who is 3 WAR, 3 WAR and 2.5 WAR, that doesn’t really tell us about what we can expect from him in the future. But if we know his wOBA was .355, .340, .340 we can be project how he’ll hit. We can then use that to calculate WAR as a projection.
[quote name=ACT]If you did Wins Above Barry Bonds, it would actually reward the player for sitting on the bench. Every day he plays, he’ll dig himself into a deeper hole.[/quote]At the career level, any rookie would begin his career -171.8 WABB. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]WAR would look like golf scores then.[/quote]I have never understood golf scores. If people are always -20, set the par higher. I don’t have that problem. I’m usually +20 after the first round.
[quote name=mb21]I have never understood golf scores. If people are always -20, set the par higher. I don’t have that problem. I’m usually +20 after the first round.[/quote]Way to think positive!
[quote name=mb21]At the career level, any rookie would begin his career -171.8 WABB. (dying laughing)[/quote]It doesn’t really work that way. You would start at zero, but it would go down if you play at a lower level than Barry Bonds.If you’re not as good as Barry Bonds, the more playing time you get, the more it would go down.
Rami —> quad tweak, never to be seen as a Cub in Wrigley Field again (maybe)
[quote name=ACT]It doesn’t really work that way. You would start at zero, but it would go down if you play at a lower level than Barry Bonds.If you’re not as good as Barry Bonds, the more playing time you get, the more it would go down.[/quote]That makes sense, but I guess I’m thinking of it a bit differently and since it’s just for fun, I’ll keep thinking of it that way. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]Rami —> quad tweak, never to be seen as a Cub in Wrigley Field again (maybe)[/quote]He’ll get a chance to win a championship now.
(dying laughing)
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Gleeful-Yanks-fan-serves-Red-Sox-pitcher-with-ch?urn=mlb-wp20240
e.g., if you see Barry as 9 WAR/season (roughly 7 WAA), then an average player over a full season would be -7 WABB, but an average player for half a season would be -3.5 WABB. The league leaders in WABB would be people who played very little, and the “worst” players would be players who played every day.
[quote name=ACT]e.g., if you see Barry as 9 WAR/season (roughly 7 WAA), then an average player over a full season would be -7 WABB, but an average player for half a season would be -3.5 WABB. The league leaders in WABB would be people who played very little, and the “worst” players would be players who played every day.[/quote]So Koyie Hill would be making hundreds of millions and Albert Pujols would be making league minimum? Not sure if that would be awesome or not.
I wonder what kind of deal Ramirez would get. It really hinges on how much teams are willing to put up with his declining defense and increasing injury risk going forward. I think he’d be best as a DH, but Ramy might not want that.
Here’s a BLS on the Marlins logo that stimulated discussion yesterday:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/Does-alleged-new-Miami-Marlins-logo-spell-doom-f?urn=mlb-wp20255
[quote name=mb21]So Koyie Hill would be making hundreds of millions and Albert Pujols would be making league minimum? Not sure if that would be awesome or not.[/quote]Koyie’s getting paid $850K this year to suck so nothing will really change…
[quote name=mb21]So Koyie Hill would be making hundreds of millions and Albert Pujols would be making league minimum? Not sure if that would be awesome or not.[/quote]Will, since everyone would have negative WABB, maybe everyone would have to pay to play, and the regulars would have to pay more. I don’t know about Pujols being “worse” than Koyie, though, since he’s not much worse than BB. Pujols might be only -1 WABB/year, and Koyie even would be lower despite having less playing time.
I meant “well,” not “will.”
[quote name=Rice Cube]The use of UZR in fWAR (UZR being a concept I don’t completely understand) seems to skew it a bunch. I also don’t know whether they explicitly defined the replacement level.[/quote]I don’t even actually mind the skew that much. What I really mind is that WAR hides it.
[quote name=mb21]I trust the offensive components just fine. Baserunning is relatively easy to measure. Batting is too. Fielding is not. So I prefer batter WAR. I could calculate something as simple as Batting Runs, which makes perfect sense, and get similar results. Replacement level is a theory, but you have to compare to some baseline. I don’t care if it’s average, 2 wins below average or 55 wins below average. As long as you’re using the same baseline, it doesn’t matter. The fielding component bothers me a lot.[/quote]Well, but people don’t use the same baseline as each other, and they don’t make that very clear. I think you’re right that at least some of the offensive stuff is pretty uncontroversial, the pitching stuff has a few quibbles one way or the other, and defense is basically an informed opinion.
Packaging all that together is just wrapping a number around an opinion, which is a great way to have people mistake it for Truth. Hiding the math you used just makes it as hard as possible to tease out which parts of the number come from stuff everybody agrees with and which parts are just the opinion of the sausage-maker. Publishing the number as “WAR” next to a bunch of properly objective stats like wOBA hides the fact that there’s any opinion in it at all, to the point where ESPN — who we really want to start using numbers the right way — just takes the number as an objective fact and doesn’t even mention the source, which makes the number just as meaningless as any other unattributed opinion.
[quote name=mb21]Fang, what I mean is that you can use the component to get a predicted WAR. Say you have a guy who is 3 WAR, 3 WAR and 2.5 WAR, that doesn’t really tell us about what we can expect from him in the future. But if we know his wOBA was .355, .340, .340 we can be project how he’ll hit. We can then use that to calculate WAR as a projection.[/quote]Yeah, makes sense to me. Cook up a 2011 expected WAR and a 2011 observed WAR. Both are useful. Just don’t mix them up, because they are way different.
Ugh, I don’t know why this WAR stuff steams me so much. I guess it’s because I get annoyed when people use stats (or numbers in general) to avoid humans’ normal critical thinking processes. So WAR = (subjective + opaque + wrong) really hits my sweet spot of annoyance. (dying laughing)
It’s a particular shame in baseball, which is so unusual among human activities in that so much of it actually can be well understood using good statistics. But apparently that only makes it all the more likely that people won’t question the bad ones.
[quote name=fang2415]WAR = (subjective + opaque + wrong) really hits my sweet spot of annoyance. (dying laughing)[/quote]Also, WAR = (subjective + opaque + wrong + right next to a bunch of other numbers that are objective, transparent, and right)
[quote name=fang2415]Also, WAR = (subjective + opaque + wrong + right next to a bunch of other numbers that are objective, transparent, and right)[/quote]I figure most “smart” teams these days would look at the objective/transparent numbers individually before combining them into a team-specific WAR formula. I might be wrong about that, but I don’t think so…it’s what I would do if I were better at math and stats.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I figure most “smart” teams these days would look at the objective/transparent numbers individually before combining them into a team-specific WAR formula. I might be wrong about that, but I don’t think so…it’s what I would do if I were better at math and stats.[/quote]I think that’s probably true, or they have their own forumlas and methods of combining the subjective and objective. In the end, when you get down to it, Fangraphs etc. is more fan oriented, as is ESPN. I say ESPN introducing fans to WAR is probably an overall good thing. It’s better than just looking at Batting Average, despite flaws, and it gives fans an introduction so they look into the issues more. It would be nice to see more television analysis that was more oriented toward relevant stats. For instance, I heard Pat say that Pena was “just 1 for 1 last night, with a couple of walks,” I would have preferred “Pena reached base 3 of 4 times including a double” or something. Reaching base is relevant, whether you phrase it in terms of wOBA or as a narrative as sports analysts do. I think that in general sports analysis just relies on the same lazy techniques over and over, and if introducing some kind of WAR can break them out of that, I’m for it. It’s not like a team is listening to ESPN to make their decisions.
It goes back to the goals of using the stats. If you need to predict a player’s performance for a fantasy team, then predictive stats are more important, if you’re just interested in how well a guy is doing, a descriptive stat is better for you.
This Joe Poz article + the Moneyball premiere is pretty serendipitously timed with today’s post:
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/09/ballad-of-bill-james.html
A couple things…
1. I’d never heard of the metric “favorite toy” so I wonder if he’s being facetious.
2. When Joe talks about the Bill James formula, it kind of spells “cud” and “cow” so I thought there was a deeper, more bovine meaning to it all (dying laughing)
BJ used to have his “favorite toy” thing in the back of those annual stat books he released. It was a way of estimating a player’s chances of reaching a milestone (e.g., 500 HR’s) in his career.
[quote name=ACT]BJ used to have his “favorite toy” thing in the back of those annual stat books he released. It was a way of estimating a player’s chances of reaching a milestone (e.g., 500 HR’s) in his career.[/quote]I confess that I’ve never actually read anything by Bill James, only indirectly. I know of Bill James basically through Moneyball and that episode of the Simpsons where Lisa manages with her laptop.
ACT, your BPro link was highlighted today:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/21/must-click-link-catchers-framing-pitches-have-a-huge-impact-on-ballstrike-calls/
Some of the commenters were apparently umpires and said that pitch-framing was bullshit.
Pure speculation, but:
1. Aramis Ramirez is gone, hope Cubs can get a supp pick;
2. Potentially he has inside knowledge that the Cubs plan a rebuild at some level and let it slip.
Muskat says Ramirez’s option must be picked up within five days of the end of the World Series.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Muskat says Ramirez’s option must be picked up within five days of the end of the World Series.[/quote]
False. Nobody knows what his contract says.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Pure speculation, but:
1. Aramis Ramirez is gone, hope Cubs can get a supp pick;
2. Potentially he has inside knowledge that the Cubs plan a rebuild at some level and let it slip.
Muskat says Ramirez’s option must be picked up within five days of the end of the World Series.[/quote]Yeah, Rami is guessing just like we are. He saw them pump money into the farm system and yesterday he said his agent was in town, but no one had called him and he “doesn’t know who the GM is.” I think he’s publicly trying to call out the Cubs and get them to talk, for one thing. I really don’t think he knows anything we don’t know, in terms of the plans, just my gut instinct.
Plus, I guarantee you if the money is right, he’ll be a part of any process the Cubs want to put him through.
I can’t believe you people are all on here casually discussing WAR and Ramirez and blithely tossing about our little memes when FACEBOOK HAS CHANGED!!!!
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[quote name=Aisle424]I can’t believe you people are all on here casually discussing WAR and Ramirez and blithely tossing about our little memes when FACEBOOK HAS CHANGED!!!!
annoying, but I’m not going to kill a guy with a trident just because of a minor inconvenience.
[quote name=josh]Plus, I guarantee you if the money is right, he’ll be a part of any process the Cubs want to put him through.[/quote]That’s probably true, but I have a hard time seeing the Cubs spend that kind of money if they don’t intend to contend.
[quote name=Rice Cube]That’s probably true, but I have a hard time seeing the Cubs spend that kind of money if they don’t intend to contend.[/quote]Maybe that was just his way of saying that he plans to void the contract if all they offer is to pick up the option.
[quote name=Aisle424]I can’t believe you people are all on here casually discussing WAR and Ramirez and blithely tossing about our little memes when FACEBOOK HAS CHANGED!!!!
change it like every other week. I’m numb.
(dying laughing) http://www.somethingawful.com/d/news/dog-change-log.php?via=twitter
[quote name=josh]Maybe that was just his way of saying that he plans to void the contract if all they offer is to pick up the option.[/quote]Yeah, I don’t know anymore than you or even Aramis at this point, just throwing out ideas.
[quote name=ACT]I wonder what kind of deal Ramirez would get. It really hinges on how much teams are willing to put up with his declining defense and increasing injury risk going forward. I think he’d be best as a DH, but Ramy might not want that.[/quote]Even with him being the best 3rd baseman on the market, I probably wouldn’t do more than 2/25.
http://theoatmeal.com/pl/state_web_winter/facebook_layout
[quote name=Rice Cube]I figure most “smart” teams these days would look at the objective/transparent numbers individually before combining them into a team-specific WAR formula. I might be wrong about that, but I don’t think so…it’s what I would do if I were better at math and stats.[/quote]My guess is that a team only cares about past or even current production when it comes to arbitration. I’m betting they look more at projections, which means you combine multiple years. I’m sure they look at some current ones, but I don’t think they put much value in them these days.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Yeah, I don’t know anymore than you or even Aramis at this point, just throwing out ideas.[/quote]The long and short of it is, he sounds frustrated. Sounds like he hits the free market one way or another.
[quote name=ACT]BJ used to have his “favorite toy” thing in the back of those annual stat books he released. It was a way of estimating a player’s chances of reaching a milestone (e.g., 500 HR’s) in his career.[/quote]He doesn’t still do that? I seem to remember it in the last one I read (2010?). I’ll have to get it out. I also have the 2011 one, but didn’t read too much of it.
[quote name=josh]The long and short of it is, he sounds frustrated. Sounds like he hits the free market one way or another.[/quote]I think so too. I hope the Cubs are able to snag a sandwich pick from that, but I’m not holding my breath.
It’s ridiculous how much bile and venom is being spewed at Ramirez because he’s surmised that he will become a free agent.
[quote name=Rice Cube]
It’s ridiculous how much bile and venom is being spewed at Ramirez because he’s surmised that he will become a free agent.[/quote]
It’s ridiculous, but sadly not surprising.
[quote name=mb21]He doesn’t still do that? I seem to remember it in the last one I read (2010?). I’ll have to get it out. I also have the 2011 one, but didn’t read too much of it.[/quote]I don’t know. He probably does. I rarely look at stat books anymore now that fangraphs and b-ref exist.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I confess that I’ve never actually read anything by Bill James, only indirectly. I know of Bill James basically through Moneyball and that episode of the Simpsons where Lisa manages with her laptop.
ACT, your BPro link was highlighted today:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/09/21/must-click-link-catchers-framing-pitches-have-a-huge-impact-on-ballstrike-calls/
Some of the commenters were apparently umpires and said that pitch-framing was bullshit.[/quote]I know a former minor league manager who has primarily worked as a roving infield instructor in his career. He was a SS in the minors for several years in the Yankees organization. He’s worked a lot with catchers and I think he’d come down somewhere between the umpire on that site and Mike Fast. I don’t believe that the best catchers add 20 or 40 runs by getting more strike calls. Without factoring in the command of the pitcher you just don’t know. I’m guessing that Marmol gets fewer borderline called strikes because he’s all over the place. I don’t think it would matter if Yadier Molina was back there. My guess would be that at best it adds 3 to 5 runs over a full season. That’s rather huge though considering it’s just one aspect of catching. It’s like adding 3 to 5 runs on defense by turning double plays better than others.
I sent him that link and will post any response if he says it’s OK.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think so too. I hope the Cubs are able to snag a sandwich pick from that, but I’m not holding my breath.
It’s ridiculous how much bile and venom is being spewed at Ramirez because he’s surmised that he will become a free agent.[/quote]The same people who criticism him for only being good when the Cubs are out of it, I bet.
[quote name=Berselius]It’s ridiculous, but sadly not surprising.[/quote]I started to write something here this morning about it and had a few comments quoted, but said fuck it. Not worth my time.
[quote name=Aisle424]I can’t believe you people are all on here casually discussing WAR and Ramirez and blithely tossing about our little memes when FACEBOOK HAS CHANGED!!!!
it’s because I rarely go there, but it looks the same to me. (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]I know a former minor league manager who has primarily worked as a roving infield instructor in his career. He was a SS in the minors for several years in the Yankees organization. He’s worked a lot with catchers and I think he’d come down somewhere between the umpire on that site and Mike Fast. I don’t believe that the best catchers add 20 or 40 runs by getting more strike calls. Without factoring in the command of the pitcher you just don’t know. I’m guessing that Marmol gets fewer borderline called strikes because he’s all over the place. I don’t think it would matter if Yadier Molina was back there. My guess would be that at best it adds 3 to 5 runs over a full season. That’s rather huge though considering it’s just one aspect of catching. It’s like adding 3 to 5 runs on defense by turning double plays better than others.
I sent him that link and will post any response if he says it’s OK.[/quote]Theoretically, the umpire should be looking at the front edge of the plate, and not even really see the catcher’s mitt. The call should already be formed and sending signals to his mouth by the time the ball hits the mitt. But practically, those events are very close to simultaneous. I would agree that it matters less than the average announcer believes it does. I would be more inclined to think it would influence away, like when the catcher moves his arm way out, that motion itself could make the ball appear to move further outside than it does. Maybe there’s a slight bias the other way, where the blur of motion confuses the umpire brain very slightly.
I would think if you want the fairest call, your best bet is to not move too much behind the plate. Any motion up or to the side is bound to cause a slight perceptual shift relative to the ball, or at least be mildly distracting. Of course, a really good automated system would solve that issue one way or another.
[quote name=josh]I would think if you want the fairest call, your best bet is to not move too much behind the plate. Any motion up or to the side is bound to cause a slight perceptual shift relative to the ball, or at least be mildly distracting. Of course, a really good automated system would solve that issue one way or another.[/quote]That was one of the segments in Fast’s article. He had a couple animated gifs showing a “calm” catcher vs. a “not so calm” catcher where in the first example, he barely moved and in the second the glove arm basically moved two feet. It’s sort of isolated as there’s no way you would expect a catcher to not move his glove to block a wild pitch or to adjust when the pitcher misses his spots, but I thought that was interesting.
[quote name=ACT]I don’t know. He probably does. I rarely look at stat books anymore now that fangraphs and b-ref exist.[/quote]I really like reading Bill James. I just didn’t get around to the last annual.
Things I learned while listening to Boston sports radio on my commute yesterday/today
1) The Red Sox would be in great shape right now if they had just re-signed Jason Bay however many years ago
2) Theo is overrated because the national baseball writers love young hot-shots instead of grizzled, crusty old guys
I don’t know which one gave me a bigger laugh (dying laughing)
Rays 2, Yankees 1
Did the Yanks run out of pitchers? Why is Noesi starting?
Oh wait, Noesi has been relieved. Must be Girardi’s “kill my bullpen in the first game of a doubleheader” plan.
Hopefully we’re laughing at number 2 in about 3 months.
Apparently the highlights for the 2011 season have nothing at all to do with baseball. Or so WGN thinks. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]
Did the Yanks run out of pitchers? Why is Noesi starting?
[/quote]Emergency sub. http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/6999971/new-york-yankees-scratch-phil-hughes-back-spasms
[quote name=mb21]Hopefully we’re laughing at number 2 in about 3 months.[/quote]
Agreed. It’s hilarious how quickly these fans have forgotten that Theo built the teams that have won two championships in the past seven (or 93) years.
[quote name=mb21]Apparently the highlights for the 2011 season have nothing at all to do with baseball. Or so WGN thinks. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Are they showing clips of Len and Bob’s ballpark food tour? (dying laughing)
Jesus Christ. This is a baseball team. Not a fucking church. Show some baseball highlights..
[quote name=Berselius]Agreed. It’s hilarious how quickly these fans have forgotten that Theo built the teams that have won two championships in the past seven (or 93) years.[/quote]That wasn’t Theo. It was ‘roids.
[quote name=Berselius]Are they showing clips of Len and Bob’s ballpark food tour? (dying laughing)[/quote]Showing clips of Wrigley and finally, the baseball field. And the first highlight 3 minutes into the HIGHLIGHTS of 2011. (dying laughing)
Well, the pre-highlights was more entertaining than this. It’s just a reminder of a shitty season. Should have shown 2008 highlights instead.
[quote name=ACT]Emergency sub. http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/6999971/new-york-yankees-scratch-phil-hughes-back-spasms/quoteAh, okay. Too bad for the Yanks, good for the Rays.
[quote name=Berselius]Agreed. It’s hilarious how quickly these fans have forgotten that Theo built the teams that have won two championships in the past seven (or 93) years.[/quote]But what has he done for them lately?
That was a surprisingly quick inning by Garza.
I’m calling a perfect game right now for Garza. Followed by a 2007-esque collapse for the Brewers.
[quote name=josh]I’m calling a perfect game right now for Garza. Followed by a 2007-esque collapse for the Brewers.[/quote]
That would be disappointing, since it would mean TLR et all would get to the playoffs
FWIW I’m far and away rooting for the Brewers to win it this year. They went all in to get guys like Greinke and Marcum to contend before their window closes, which was the right thing to do.
[quote name=Berselius]FWIW I’m far and away rooting for the Brewers to win it this year. They went all in to get guys like Greinke and Marcum to contend before their window closes, which was the right thing to do.[/quote]I don’t hate the Brewers, I guess. I would like to see one upset, be it the Red Sox or what have you.
[quote name=Berselius]FWIW I’m far and away rooting for the Brewers to win it this year. They went all in to get guys like Greinke and Marcum to contend before their window closes, which was the right thing to do.[/quote]traitor
So…Castro’s double/out at third is a TOOTBLAN, right?
Girardi has used four different pitchers so far and it’s only the fifth inning. I guess it was a hell of an emergency since they couldn’t scrounge up a swingman.
[quote name=mb21]traitor[/quote]
I’m not a True Fan
[quote name=Berselius]FWIW I’m far and away rooting for the Brewers to win it this year. They went all in to get guys like Greinke and Marcum to contend before their window closes, which was the right thing to do.[/quote]I was talking with one of my 424 friends last night and I realized that I’m probably rooting for the Brewers to win it all. If the Rays get in, that changes things a little, but for the most part I’m hoping to see a Phillies/Brewers NLCS. I think that would be a fantastic match-up of pitching and offense on both sides. Hopefully they won’t face each other in the first round.
What do you all think of this (especially, John Schuerholz’s comment): http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/rosenthal-on-moneyball.html
[quote name=Rice Cube]Girardi has used four different pitchers so far and it’s only the fifth inning. I guess it was a hell of an emergency since they couldn’t scrounge up a swingman.[/quote]Where is Doug Davis when you need him?
[quote name=Rice Cube]So…Castro’s double/out at third is a TOOTBLAN, right?[/quote]I don’t know. Was it a stupid mistake? I thought TOOTBLAN was supposed to designate stupid mistakes? I’m at work and don’t have a TV. Pat and Keith seemed to think it was a really good play by Braun.
Soto did a great job framing that third strike to Weeks.
Amy Schumer is getting flamed for her joke at 6:08. Too soon?
It seriously looked like Steve-O was going to cry.
[quote name=Aisle424]Where is Doug Davis when you need him?[/quote]
Jim Bouton is probably available
h/t Jay Jaffee
[quote name=josh]I don’t know. Was it a stupid mistake? I thought TOOTBLAN was supposed to designate stupid mistakes? I’m at work and don’t have a TV. Pat and Keith seemed to think it was a really good play by Braun.[/quote]The way WV defined them, TOOTBLANs are merciless. If you are thrown out on the bases, whether the coach told you to go, or whether the defense made a fantastic play, or whatever the circumstance, if you are thrown out running the bases after reaching safely, it is a TOOTBLAN.
Since it wasdeveloped as a tongue-in-cheek designation to mock Ryan Theriot, I don’t think he put a lot of thought in to caring whether his new metric was a measure of true baserunning talent.
[quote name=Aisle424]Amy Schumer is getting flamed for her joke at 6:08. Too soon?
It seriously looked like Steve-O was going to cry.[/quote]That was pretty F’ed up.
I think Gilbert Gottfried did something similar after 9/11 and then busted into a rendition of the Aristocrats joke. I guess you can’t really rehearse roasts.
[quote name=Rice Cube]That was pretty F’ed up.
I think Gilbert Gottfried did something similar after 9/11 and then busted into a rendition of the Aristocrats joke. I guess you can’t really rehearse roasts.[/quote]I thought it was pretty funny. I don’t know if it was funny enough to be worth the hassle she is getting for it, but they made fun of Amy Winehouse dying and Charlie beating his wives so I’m not sure how that joke was that much worse. It’s a fucking roast. But that’s just me.
[quote name=Aisle424]The way WV defined them, TOOTBLANs are merciless. If you are thrown out on the bases, whether the coach told you to go, or whether the defense made a fantastic play, or whatever the circumstance, if you are thrown out running the bases after reaching safely, it is a TOOTBLAN.
Since it wasdeveloped as a tongue-in-cheek designation to mock Ryan Theriot, I don’t think he put a lot of thought in to caring whether his new metric was a measure of true baserunning talent.[/quote]I just saw the replay and thought it was a pretty good risk-taking on Castro’s part. He just got owned by a better play from Braun and Yuni. Imagine that, good defense from Braun and Yuni…
[quote name=Aisle424]The way WV defined them, TOOTBLANs are merciless. If you are thrown out on the bases, whether the coach told you to go, or whether the defense made a fantastic play, or whatever the circumstance, if you are thrown out running the bases after reaching safely, it is a TOOTBLAN.[/quote]
False. At one point WV wrote a followup post stressing that too many people were stressing the TOOTB over the LAN.
[quote name=Aisle424]I thought it was pretty funny. I don’t know if it was funny enough to be worth the hassle she is getting for it, but they made fun of Amy Winehouse dying and Charlie beating his wives so I’m not sure how that joke was that much worse. It’s a fucking roast. But that’s just me.[/quote]I don’t think these things are worth getting angry about, but I think Steve-O’s reaction was what made me feel bad, not the joke itself.
[quote name=Berselius]False. At one point WV wrote a followup post stressing that too many people were stressing the TOOTB over the LAN.[/quote]Ah yes, I recall that. I think here Castro took a calculated risk and therefore he gets the TOOTB but not the LAN.
[quote name=Aisle424]Where is Doug Davis when you need him?[/quote] Remember he only pitches well against the Yankees, not for them.
[quote name=Aisle424]The way WV defined them, TOOTBLANs are merciless. If you are thrown out on the bases, whether the coach told you to go, or whether the defense made a fantastic play, or whatever the circumstance, if you are thrown out running the bases after reaching safely, it is a TOOTBLAN.
Since it wasdeveloped as a tongue-in-cheek designation to mock Ryan Theriot, I don’t think he put a lot of thought in to caring whether his new metric was a measure of true baserunning talent.[/quote]There you go. It did seem like Theriot got thrown out a disproportionate number of times.
[quote name=Berselius]False. At one point WV wrote a followup post stressing that too many people were stressing the TOOTB over the LAN.[/quote]Really? Now I need to go find the damn post. I feel like he wrote something that was just the opposite.
He could just be fucking with all of us.
[quote name=Aisle424]Really? Now I need to go find the damn post. I feel like he wrote something that was just the opposite.
He could just be fucking with all of us.[/quote]IT was two different articles, depending on if you were reading with IE or Firefox. Opera had a third version, but no one saw it.
[quote name=Berselius]False. At one point WV wrote a followup post stressing that too many people were stressing the TOOTB over the LAN.[/quote]
False.
http://wrigleyville23.com/2010-articles/june/clarifying-the-tootblan.html
Castro —> 28 errors
[quote name=Aisle424]http://wrigleyville23.com/2010-articles/june/clarifying-the-tootblan.html[/quote]The point is that Soriano is a bad person, I get it.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Castro —> 28 errors[/quote]Hitting a pitcher whose trying to sacrifice with 1 out should count as a sort of error.
[quote name=ACT]Hitting a pitcher whose trying to sacrifice with 1 out should count as a sort of error.[/quote]The traditionalists will hang you for this blasphemy.
199
[quote name=Aisle424]199[/quote]Yeah, but what has he done for us lately?
[quote name=ACT]Hitting a pitcher whose trying to sacrifice with 1 out should count as a service to all humankind to extinguish stupidity from the planet.[/quote]
Castro should get a medal.
Kila —-> DFA
Yellon —-> happy?
So close…
[quote name=Rice Cube]
So close…[/quote]To be fair to Castro, Braun looked like he was dogging it a little getting to the ball.
[quote name=josh]To be fair to Castro, Braun looked like he was dogging it a little getting to the ball.[/quote]Not blaming Castro, I thought it was a good risk.
/one man’s opinion’d
[quote name=Rice Cube]Not blaming Castro, I thought it was a good risk.
/one man’s opinion’d[/quote]I thought so too, RC. It looked like Braun was expecting some kind of bounce off the wall and then the ball just came straight down after hitting the ivy and settled at the base of the wall.
Sounds like Ramirez will opt out if they pick up the option. In that case if I were the Cubs I’d pick it up, have him opt out, save the $2MM, offer him arbitration (assuming he’s likely to decline) and pocket a draft pick.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Sounds like Ramirez will opt out if they pick up the option. In that case if I were the Cubs I’d pick it up, have him opt out, save the $2MM, offer him arbitration (assuming he’s likely to decline) and pocket a draft pick.[/quote]The only problem with Arb is what if he takes it, wins, and gets a huge payday? The GM will have to gauge if the risk is worth the reward.
[quote name=cwolf22]I thought so too, RC. It looked like Braun was expecting some kind of bounce off the wall and then the ball just came straight down after hitting the ivy and settled at the base of the wall.[/quote]That’s what I was saying. He kind of jogged after it, probably expecting a bounce. To his credit, even though Braun never really looked back at what the play was doing, he turned and rocketed into the cutoff man without missing a beat. It was a solid defensive play.
[quote name=Aisle424]
Amy Schumer is getting flamed for her joke at 6:08. Too soon?
It seriously looked like Steve-O was going to cry.[/quote]Didn’t McFarlane open with an Amy Winehouse joke?
[quote name=josh]The only problem with Arb is what if he takes it, wins, and gets a huge payday? The GM will have to gauge if the risk is worth the reward.[/quote]I think arbitration contracts are just for one year, correct? If so, and Rami wants multi-year, why would he accept arb even though he’d probably get a raise of some sort for that one year?
/serious question’d
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think arbitration contracts are just for one year, correct? If so, and Rami wants multi-year, why would he accept arb even though he’d probably get a raise of some sort for that one year?
/serious question’d[/quote]I don’t know, that’s what I’m saying. Rami takes a risk himself going on the free agent market. Maybe he decides, you know what? $20M for the year will be good and I’ll reevaluate next season.
[quote name=GBTS]Didn’t McFarlane open with an Amy Winehouse joke?[/quote]Yep.
[quote name=GBTS]Didn’t McFarlane open with an Amy Winehouse joke?[/quote]I wouldn’t call anything McFarlane does a “joke.”
From what Rami’s saying, he’d definitely prefer a multi-year, but guys have said one thing and done another before.
They didn’t even give Castro the option of getting his 200th or making an out. IBBs in this situation seem dumb, although DJ hasn’t been all that good today.
IBB —-> dumb
[quote name=josh]I don’t know, that’s what I’m saying. Rami takes a risk himself going on the free agent market. Maybe he decides, you know what? $20M for the year will be good and I’ll reevaluate next season.[/quote]Yeah, that’s a possibility, but considering his age and the prospects of this being his last big payday, it’s tough to gauge what he will do. Speculation!
[quote name=josh]I don’t know, that’s what I’m saying. Rami takes a risk himself going on the free agent market. Maybe he decides, you know what? $20M for the year will be good and I’ll reevaluate next season.[/quote]
Essentially, his agent needs to decide if he can get a multi-year deal worth more than what is likely he would get in arbitration. I can’t imagine $20 million as a realistic number for Ramirez, but let’s say that’s what he’d get.
I would not be surprised if Ramirez could easily get 2/25 with some sort of option or incentive tacked on for a 3rd year. If that is the case then the Cubs should definitely exercise the option, have him decline and then offer him arbitration so they get the compensation pick.
Worst case scenario is they get Ramirez for one more year and nothing really changes. The thing with “saving” his money is that it’s going to have to go to someone to replace his production because the Cubs have nobody that will do it at the 3rd base position.
I like Rami, but I don’t know if he’s worth a 3 year deal. As someone said, he’s starting to look more and more like a DH these days. I’m fine with the Cubs letting him go. If they take the option and he decides to just go with that for some reason, I think it’s no big loss, they can still try to trade him if it comes to that, or bench him if his performance drops off the face of the Earth.
[quote name=Aisle424]I thought it was pretty funny. I don’t know if it was funny enough to be worth the hassle she is getting for it, but they made fun of Amy Winehouse dying and Charlie beating his wives so I’m not sure how that joke was that much worse. It’s a fucking roast. But that’s just me.[/quote]I don’t really know the back story, but don’t care. Like you said, it’s a roast. As fucking bananas as Sheen went, I wish they would have just ignored him and not done it. I know you don’t like 2 and a half dudes, but I’ll miss him being on it.
DJ’s started a couple of nice double plays today.
I’d just exercise the option as Aisley said. Wouldn’t be the end of the world, because it’s not my money (dying laughing)
[quote name=Aisle424]Essentially, his agent needs to decide if he can get a multi-year deal worth more than what is likely he would get in arbitration. I can’t imagine $20 million as a realistic number for Ramirez, but let’s say that’s what he’d get.
I would not be surprised if Ramirez could easily get 2/25 with some sort of option or incentive tacked on for a 3rd year. If that is the case then the Cubs should definitely exercise the option, have him decline and then offer him arbitration so they get the compensation pick.
Worst case scenario is they get Ramirez for one more year and nothing really changes. The thing with “saving” his money is that it’s going to have to go to someone to replace his production because the Cubs have nobody that will do it at the 3rd base position.[/quote]My mathematical formula was to take the option amount and round up, in case anyone is having trouble duplicating my methods.
[quote name=Rice Cube]DJ’s started a couple of nice double plays today.
I’d just exercise the option as Aisley said. Wouldn’t be the end of the world, because it’s not my money (dying laughing)[/quote]Seems like a sound choice to me, too.
Yankees: 7 pitchers so far
Rays: Shields probably goes 8 IP or at least starts the 7th
RC: (dying laughing)
[quote name=Aisle424]http://wrigleyville23.com/2010-articles/june/clarifying-the-tootblan.html[/quote]Yeah, I remember even arguing with him over it even though it was just a silly stat. (dying laughing)
Just saw DJ’s “double”…it knuckled on its way to the warning track or else Nyjer Morgan had it, must have been some crazy wind.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Sounds like Ramirez will opt out if they pick up the option. In that case if I were the Cubs I’d pick it up, have him opt out, save the $2MM, offer him arbitration (assuming he’s likely to decline) and pocket a draft pick.[/quote]Yeah, if they’re certain he’ll decline you should offer arbitration.
Byrd continuing his horrible hitting with RISP. Three run homer? Ryno would have hit a grand slam there.
[quote name=josh]Byrd continuing his horrible hitting with RISP. Three run homer? Ryno would have hit a grand slam there.[/quote]Ryno would run around the bases twice for a double-slam.
[quote name=josh]The only problem with Arb is what if he takes it, wins, and gets a huge payday? The GM will have to gauge if the risk is worth the reward.[/quote]The risk is definitely a concern. If Ramirez is a guy the Cubs wouldn’t mind back and wouldn’t mind paying him good money then you exercise the option. If he declines it you offer arbitration. If you’re not sure what he’s going to do and you don’t want to spend the money or can’t, you don’t offer arbitration.
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think arbitration contracts are just for one year, correct? If so, and Rami wants multi-year, why would he accept arb even though he’d probably get a raise of some sort for that one year?
/serious question’d[/quote]Not sure if it’s been answered, but yes, agreeing to arbitration is just a one-year contract. If the two sides cannot work out a contract, an arbitrator hears the case and awards the player a certain amount of money.
Ramirez will have time to test the free agent market before he has to accept or decline the arbitration. If he has a 3-year, $35 million contract offer he’d decline. If the best contract offer he has is something like 2/22, he’ll accept arbitration, get paid about $16-18 million and then look to sign a contract next offseason.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ryno would run around the bases twice for a double-slam.[/quote]Sounds like something Cindy Sandberg was more likely to do.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
If you check the Gameday replay of Byrd’s homer you can see Al looking dejected as he couldn’t corral the baseball. That was a bomb.
Shields —-> one batter too many
At least it looks like the Cubs are going to close the book on Wrigley for 2011 with a decent game.
[quote name=Berselius]At least it looks like the Cubs are going to close the book on Wrigley for 2011 with a decent game.[/quote]Probably means they’re good for at least 3000 wins next year.
So which one is Al? Gray shirt in the back row?
The Cubs need to get out in front on a long-term deal for Koyie Hill.
He’s the dude in the hat who’s out of the shadows, way back row.
[quote name=Berselius]At least it looks like the Cubs are going to close the book on Wrigley for 2011 with a decent game.[/quote]Thankfully the Padres are going to keep pace. (draft watching)
[quote name=Rice Cube]He’s the shaved ape in the hat who’s out of the shadows, way back row.[/quote].
FUCK
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The Cubs need to get out in front on a long-term deal for Koyie Hill.[/quote]I think there’s only one team in baseball that can afford Hill. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Mish]FUCK[/quote]
Don’t tell me what to do
[quote name=Mish]FUCK[/quote]Sinner.
Ah, Soto’s having a good day, always nice to see.
[quote name=Mish]FUCK[/quote]I’m guessing this has something to do with the Rays recent attempts to lose their game?
If Mariano pitches the day game, is he allowed to pitch the night game?
[quote name=Rice Cube]If Mariano pitches the day game, is he allowed to pitch the night game?[/quote]I don’t believe baseball rules forbid it.
[quote name=josh]I don’t believe baseball rules forbid it.[/quote]I was talking about Joe Girardi (dying laughing) He’s used almost his entire bullpen in this day game.
11 pitches, methinks Mo has enough for tonight.
Damn, Pittsburgh is losing (draft watch)
Discount for BP subscription http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15046#.TnpJZVqrglQ.twitter
Come on, Castro!
Pfft. They’re gonna walk him unless he has the green light.
This guy is going to get BOOOOOOOOOED
Booooooo!
I’m impressed that he would take the walk here, that’s actually very cool. He’ll get that 200th hit later on anyway.
(dying laughing) pitcher deserved that one.
Great at-bat for Castro though.
DJ Lemahieu’s loopy swing is putting a real dent in Castro’s chances at 200 hits (dying laughing)
Come on, extras!
Besides Garza that one time and Wells, who else has pitched a complete game this year?
The Score is reporting that Crane Kenney has been an active participant in the Cubs GM search.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Besides Garza that one time and Wells, who else has pitched a complete game this year?[/quote]Wasn’t Garza’s a complete game loss? I think that’s it.
I don’t think any topic has received more hand-wringing discussion on this blog (and the cubs blogosphere in general) than the loose definition of tootblans.
I halfway think that wv23 intended it that way so that his blog would live on like the endless hof-snub debates (dying laughing).
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The Score is reporting that Crane Kenney has been an active participant in the Cubs GM search.[/quote]He is the team president for now. Doesn’t sound like he’ll be around for long though.
[quote name=GW]I don’t think any topic has received more hand-wringing discussion on this blog (and the cubs blogosphere in general) than the loose definition of tootblans.
I halfway think that wv23 intended it that way so that his blog would live on like the endless hof-snub debates (dying laughing).[/quote]Okay, THIS comment is definitely a TOOTBLAN.
Was that dropped popup a TOOTBLAN? I’m calling it a TOOTBLAN.
Hopefully Garza gets to finish this one. Darn errors.
Are the Cubs fans really giving the team a standing ovation for a 90-loss season?
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Are the Cubs fans really giving the team a standing ovation for a 90-loss season?[/quote]It’s a way of (L)ife.
Three million fans got to witness this way of (L)ife this season.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Three million fans got to witness this way of (L)ife this season.[/quote]‘Win or lose, Dad, they sell every ticket to every game.”
Ol’ Tommy Boy certainly knows his clientele.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]‘Win or lose, Dad, they sell every ticket to every game.”
Ol’ Tommy Boy certainly knows his clientele.[/quote]It was a pretty nice day out
You couldn’t tell from all the scalpers outside the park though, plus the empty seats that you see on every telecast. The scalpers had stacks of tickets several inches thick in each hand the last time I went by on Monday night. So 3MM+ tickets were paid for but a lot of them weren’t exactly used.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Hopefully Garza gets to finish this one. Darn errors.[/quote]DJ was just trying to keep the game alive so Castro could get another at bat.
It was cool that Garza got to finish on a K, though.
[quote name=Rice Cube]It was a pretty nice day out
You couldn’t tell from all the scalpers outside the park though, plus the empty seats that you see on every telecast. The scalpers had stacks of tickets several inches thick in each hand the last time I went by on Monday night. So 3MM+ tickets were paid for but a lot of them weren’t exactly used.[/quote]That’s all that matters. Money in the bank.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]That’s all that matters. Money in the bank.[/quote]Lost concessions and souvenir sales probably put a bit of a dent in the old piggy bank though.
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19473645
Nice.
B, your 8th grade science fair pic is awesome:
I would assume they were giving Garza a standing ovation and that they were giving the team an ovation as well. I would. Nothing wrong with acknowledging the effort the players put in over the course of the season. There were players on the team worth giving an ovation to: Castro, Garza, Marshall and Ramirez for example.
Oh great. Here comes the 8 minute highlight reel that includes 3 plays from the 2011 season. What a fucking joke that highlight reel was.
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19473645
Nice.[/quote]With a RISP, no less. I thought he was a choker…
[quote name=ACT]With a RISP, no less. I thought he was a choker…[/quote]Good variance today.
I’d also argue that the entire team deserved an ovation for even putting on the uniform and showing up to work every day. That had to suck. (dying laughing)
[quote name=ACT]With a RISP, no less. I thought he was a choker…[/quote]Also, the part where Yellon actually tries to get up and catch the ball (given his reputation around these parts for being a Vulcan-esque fan) amused the hell out of me (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]I’d also argue that the entire team deserved an ovation for even putting on the uniform and showing up to work every day. That had to suck. (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing)
It’s nice to see Derrek Lee turning it on again. He seems to like hitting in September for some reason.
[quote name=ACT]It’s nice to see Derrek Lee turning it on again. He seems to like hitting in September for some reason.[/quote]He only hits when the pressure is off.
Any player on any noncontending team who gets a hit in September is clearly an asshole.
[quote name=josh]Any player on any noncontending team who gets a hit in September is clearly an asshole.[/quote]Keep firing, assholes!
[quote name=Rice Cube]Lost concessions and souvenir sales probably put a bit of a dent in the old piggy bank though.[/quote]Probably not as much as we’d like. Not all the revenue from those concession sales goes to the Cubs. Part of the reason the prices are so expensive is that there are a lot of mouths feeding off that particular trough of revenue. I’d be interested to know what percentage of the $7.50 beers actually go to the Cubs. The food is probably even less of a profit margin,
[quote name=Aisle424]The food is
probably even less of a profit margin,black toilet sludge, so the profits are infinite.[/quote].
Arizona Phil with a quick post to kickoff the Arizona Fall League:
http://www.thecubreporter.com/2011/09/21/your-2011-azil-cubs
No Ozzie Timmons? It’s a AAAA-Fest in Arizona.
Are Elias rankings set? Aramis is on the A/B cusp.
http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310921116&teams=milwaukee-brewers-vs-chicago-cubs
OK, this just pisses me off. He wasn’t given the 3-0 green light because it broke baseball’s unwritten rules? Does he really think that opposing pitchers would be pissed off and throw at Castro for trying to get his 200th hit? Not to mention, it’s a perfectly sound strategy to swing on 3-0 with first base open. Ugh.
Castro was given a really good pitch to hit on 3-0. The crowd wanted to see him get a hit. This is just frustrating.
[quote name=ACT]http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310921116&teams=milwaukee-brewers-vs-chicago-cubsOK, this just pisses me off. He wasn’t given the 3-0 green light because it broke baseball’s unwritten rules? Does he really think that opposing pitchers would be pissed off and throw at Castro for trying to get his 200th hit? Not to mention, it’s a perfectly sound strategy to swing on 3-0 with first base open. Ugh.[/quote]From that standpoint it is probably defensible that Quade didn’t give him the green light but it is a very stupid unwritten rule (dying laughing)
I like the part where Quade is looking out for his player, but not the rationale.
I really doubt that anyone would throw at Castro for swinging on a 3-0 count (against a different team!) while sitting at 199 hits in the last home game of the season. Even Len and Bob thought he was likely to swing.
ACT, do you know if the Elias rankings are set in stone? My previous query was above but I didn’t know if the peasants were conversing.
On another note:
I like Garza.
I don’t know anything about Elias rankings.
STL is going to make the NL WC race very interesting if the Braves continue to tank. I wouldn’t mind seeing Pujols and Berkman in the playoffs again.
/not a real Cubs fan
Garza obviously doesn’t respect Mike Quade.
Rays are walking Cano with runners on the corners and no outs. So much for the Rays being a “sabermetric” team.
[quote name=ACT]Rays are walking Cano with runners on the corners and no outs. So much for the Rays being a “sabermetric” team.[/quote]Who was hitting behind Cano?
Jesus Montero.
Red Sux blew another late-inning lead.
Looks like it “worked” as Montero GIDPed. Maddon was probably hoping for a platoon advantage for Hellickson.
I guess I’ve never noticed it before, but is there a rationale for rewarding a RBI on a fielder’s choice but not on a double play?
[quote name=ACT]On another note: I like Garza.[/quote]I heard Q say he told Garza to strike out. Here’s what I don’t get. If Castro gets the green light and gets his 200th hit, how are they going to throw one at his ribcage? He’ll be on base. Pretty sure you can’t throw one at the ribcage when dude is standing on first. Besides, as much as the Brewers hamdog it, I can’t see them as a big retaliation team.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Looks like it “worked” as Montero GIDPed. Maddon was probably hoping for a platoon advantage for Hellickson.
I guess I’ve never noticed it before, but is there a rationale for rewarding a RBI on a fielder’s choice but not on a double play?[/quote]I guess if you make two outs, you don’t get the RBI. I don’t know if there’s a rationale beyond that.
The rationale is that the DP hurts the team more than the run helps the team (usually), so the batter shouldn’t be “rewarded” with the RBI. (I’ve never been a fan of stats as reward; they should be used as data.)
[quote name=josh]I heard Q say he told Garza to strike out. Here’s what I don’t get. If Castro gets the green light and gets his 200th hit, how are they going to throw one at his ribcage? He’ll be on base. Pretty sure you can’t throw one at the ribcage when dude is standing on first. Besides, as much as the Brewers hamdog it, I can’t see them as a big retaliation team.[/quote]Maybe he was worried about word getting round to the Cardinals and Castro getting plunked next series.
Derp. It’s in the official rules for the scorer:
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/official_info/official_rules/official_scorer_10.jsp
[quote name=ACT]The rationale is that the DP hurts the team more than the run helps the team (usually), so the batter shouldn’t be “rewarded” with the RBI. (I’ve never been a fan of stats as reward; they should be used as data.)[/quote]Or at least do it fairly. Weight the RBI by situation and by how much it helps the team’s winning percentage. If GIDP completely cancels out an RBI, then two run game winning homerun off the close in the bottom of the ninth should count for more than just 2.
Actually, he was probably worried about Castro swinging and missing or fouling it off and then getting plunked.
[quote name=ACT]Actually, he was probably worried about Castro swinging and missing or fouling it off and then getting plunked.[/quote]No, I know. I was being a little facetious. Still, the Brewers do at least 5 things per game that in the old days would win you a plunking. To me, this was not something anyone would have retaliated for.
[quote name=josh]No, I know. I was being a little facetious. Still, the Brewers do at least 5 things per game that in the old days would win you a plunking. To me, this was not something anyone would have retaliated for.[/quote]But who the hell knows. I guess Q did the honorable thing, valuing the tradition over personal stats and all that. I guess.
Maybe if he weren’t going for hit no. 200, some managers or pitchers would want to retaliate, but it’s hard to imagine it here.
Red Sux are now behind 6-4 to the Orioles. Good thing the Yankees are doing their work for them.
[quote name=ACT]Red Sux are now behind 6-4 to the Orioles. Good thing the Yankees are doing their work for them.[/quote]So did Girardi violate the unwritten rules by pitching CC after they just clinched?
[quote name=josh]So did Girardi violate the unwritten rules by pitching CC after they just clinched?[/quote]They’re the Yankees. They can violate all the unwritten rules they want.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/elias-rankings-update-1.html
Here are the Elias rankings from last week. Aramis is Type B but very close to Type A. If there is a chance to become Type A before the offseason, how badass does he have to be to do it? (Don’t know if that’s even possible because I don’t know if there’s a deadline for setting the ranks)
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/elias-rankings-update-1.html
Here are the Elias rankings from last week. Aramis is Type B but very close to Type A. If there is a chance to become Type A before the offseason, how badass does he have to be to do it? (Don’t know if that’s even possible because I don’t know if there’s a deadline for setting the ranks)[/quote]I don’t know how it works, but I think he’d have to climb over all the guys ahead of him. Who knows. Probably not possible.
AL Wild Card just got interesting again (dying laughing)
Byrd is ranked Type A. That doesn’t mean anything for non free agents, right? They just put them all up for comparison sake?
[quote name=josh]Byrd is ranked Type A. That doesn’t mean anything for non free agents, right? They just put them all up for comparison sake?[/quote]I believe that is the case, but I’m not an expert on Elias or anything. Maybe Wikipedia knows something.
Sounds like there’s still a chance for Aramis to get into Chase Headley territory, but if it’s based on the previous two seasons, 2010 was pretty bad…
STL —-> very good shape
[quote name=Rice Cube]STL —-> very good shape[/quote]Nice of you to notice. They’ve been working out.
[quote name=josh]Nice of you to notice. They’ve been working out.[/quote]Seven-minute abs!
http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7001773/chicago-cubs-fans-appreciate-end-bungled-season-wrigley-field
L’Infield (dying laughing)
Another intentional walk with a runner on first? Maddon is terrible.
I have a new appreciation for Mike Quade now.
Joe Girardi just pinch-hit Posada for Montero to get the platoon advantage, or so I theorize anyway considering how terrible Posada has been.
Quade’s unermanaging >>> Maddon’s overmanaging
Joe Girardi is a genius! (dying laughing)
[quote name=ACT]Quade’s unermanaging >>> Maddon’s overmanaging[/quote]Hey, everyone has a TLR moment here and there.
Rays = Angels
[quote name=ACT]Rays are walking Cano with runners on the corners and no outs. So much for the Rays being a “sabermetric” team.[/quote]Isn’t Maddon the manager that MGL has picked on so often. I seem to remember him calling him one of the dumbest managers in the game.
I probably overstated it a bit, but here’s one thread: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/reason_12_why_i_think_joe_maddon_is_an_idiot/
[quote name=mb21]Isn’t Maddon the manager that MGL has picked on so often. I seem to remember him calling him one of the dumbest managers in the game.[/quote]This game actually prompted me to look up Maddon on The Book blog. Here are a few posts
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/a_simple_and_easy_test_for_joe_maddon/
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/maddon_the_genius_again/
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/maddon_at_it_again/:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/reason_12_why_i_think_joe_maddon_is_an_idiot/
Basically, he sees Maddon as a smart person who makes dumb decisions because he’s not as smart as he thinks he is.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/a_simple_and_easy_test_for_joe_maddon/
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/managerial-postscript/
[quote name=mb21]I probably overstated it a bit, but here’s one thread: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/reason_12_why_i_think_joe_maddon_is_an_idiot//quoteThat's weird. I think this was actually one example Jonah Keri used in “The Extra 2%” to talk about how unorthodox Joe Maddon is and why it works for the Rays.
Giants winning but are probably out of time this season *sad*
Thanks, ACT. That THT link is by MGL also and about Maddon.
I didn’t have an opinion of Maddon going into the game, but those IBB’s were… Maddonning.
[quote name=ACT]I didn’t have an opinion of Maddon going into the game, but those IBB’s were… Maddonning.[/quote]
The first IBB increased run expectancy by about 2/3 of a run. The second increased run expectancy by 1/3 of a run.
[quote name=ACT]The first IBB increased run expectancy by about 2/3 of a run. The second increased run expectancy by 1/3 of a run.[/quote]I don’t think Maddon expected that.
[quote name=mb21]http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/managerial-postscript/[/quote]
I guess Maddon and Quade aren’t so different, after all.
[quote name=ACT]The first IBB increased run expectancy by about 2/3 of a run. The second increased run expectancy by 1/3 of a run.[/quote]I got the first one wrong. It’s closer to 2/5. Still huge.
[quote name=Rice Cube]That’s weird. I think this was actually one example Jonah Keri used in “The Extra 2%” to talk about how unorthodox Joe Maddon is and why it works for the Rays.
Giants winning but are probably out of time this season *sad*[/quote]I honestly don’t know what to believe when it comes to Maddon. I don’t believe Rays fans. Sorry, Mish. I don’t believe you guys for the very reason I don’t care what Cubs fans think about various players or managers or coaches. If someone wants to show why he is a good manager, fine, but if not, I’m left to remember the stuff MGL has written about him and it’s been extensive.
[quote name=ACT]The first IBB increased run expectancy by about 2/3 of a run. The second increased run expectancy by 1/3 of a run.[/quote]So Maddon cost his team 1 run tonight? That’s just WOW.
[quote name=ACT]I guess Maddon and Quade aren’t so different, after all.[/quote]That wouldn’t surprise me. Quade is really bad when it comes to some in-game decisions, but I really like how he’s handled some situations that have come up this year.
I think the second was only after a 3-1 count, which changes the calculus (slightly).
The first time was runners on 1B and 3B with 1 out. The difference is 1.65-1.243=.407.
The second time was runners on 1B and 2B with 2 outs. That’s .815-.466=.349. Granted, there was a 3-1 count on Cano, but still…
[quote name=ACT]Maybe if he weren’t going for hit no. 200, some managers or pitchers would want to retaliate, but it’s hard to imagine it here.[/quote]Quade plays by different rules than everyone else. At least 3 times this year he complained about teams running up the score. I’ll bet that a single season record for a manager. I’m under the impression that if the score is 3-1 in the 8th, Quade thinks you shouldn’t try to score.
I don’t think there’s a chance in hell the Brewers throw at Castro in that situation. The Brewers can look up at that huge sign that said ONE hit shy of 200 and know that to these guys that’s a huge milestone. They aren’t going to retaliate on someone who is 21 years old and is trying to collect his 200th hit. Won’t happen.
Was the 3-1 count to Cano the result of the unintentional intentional walk?
Cano worked a 3-1 count, and then Maddon decided to walk him.
Even down in the count, I’ve never seen an IBB that advanced 2 runners.
[quote name=mb21]I honestly don’t know what to believe when it comes to Maddon. I don’t believe Rays fans. Sorry, Mish. I don’t believe you guys for the very reason I don’t care what Cubs fans think about various players or managers or coaches. If someone wants to show why he is a good manager, fine, but if not, I’m left to remember the stuff MGL has written about him and it’s been extensive.[/quote]
I don’t believe the Rays sycophants either. However, I get the feeling that MGL just watches them more often. Were he to all of the sudden take an interest in the Cubs, I would predict many “Quade is an idiot” posts. He can’t resist it.
That is to say, I’m not sure there is a manager in the game who is all that good at strategy.
He’s had a couple of posts attacking Brenly:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/just_put_me_on_tv_for_one_game_thats_all_i_would_last_anyway/
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/bob_brenley_seems_like_a_pretty_smart_guy_and_is_a_pretty_good_tv_analyst_i/
I remember him calling out Bud Black once as a particularly bad manager, as well.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/why_does_bud_black_get_a_pass/#comments
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/evidence_that_bud_black_is_a_bad_manager/#comments
New crap: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/an-unfair-game.html