Here at Obstructed View we’re publishing team projections for the NL Central teams as well as interview with someone who blogs about that team. This time we have Justin Inaz. If you’re not familiar with Justin, he’s one of the smarter people that blogs about a specific team. He’s written for Beyond the Box Score and is currently writing for Red Reporter. He also has his own site, Basement Dwellers, but it’s not updated much anymore. I’m thrilled to have his responses on Obstructed View. I started reading Jinaz’s stuff a few years ago on his old blog. The series he did on player value completely changed the way I looked at this game. Were it not for those articles, I can safely say that I’d not know nearly as much about baseball as I do today. I’m no sabermetrician and never will be, but those articles provided me with enough confidence to start writing regularly about sabermetrics. If you click on the Basement Dwellers link and scroll down until you find Player Value Series, I strongly encourage you read all 12 articles at some point. It will be well worth your time in my opinion. So thanks to Justin for taking the time to answer our questions.
Obstructed View: Will Aroldis Chapman get a chance to start at some point or is he strictly a reliever for the Reds at this point? From afar it reminds me of how the Cubs treated Andrew Cashner last season, but I’m not familiar enough with Chapman. What’s his future with the Reds?
Justin Inaz: I would be extremely surprised to see Chapman start this year. They never really had him “stretch out” this spring to be a starter, and the intention all winter has been to use him as a weapon out of the pen this season. Furthermore, despite the recent (apparently short-term) injuries to Cueto and Bailey, the Reds have a lot of depth in their starting pitching and do not expect to need him in the rotation. I think that perhaps they SHOULD put him in the rotation, but I see where they’re coming from. This season, I’d expect to see Chapman setting up Cordero all season long. That said, I also wouldn’t expect him to get very many saves. Dusty Baker is very loyal to his starters–probably to a fault–and so it will likely take an injury or an apocalyptic implosion from Cordero for Chapman to get many save opportunities.
Long term, I think most of the front office still views Chapman as a starter. So, by 2012, he could well be in the rotation. On the other hand, as we’ve seen with Neftali Feliz and Chris Sale this spring, managers love their relievers and hate to part with them. I think Dusty would rather have him in the pen because it gives him a weapon that he can use. This might be especially tempting with Cordero potentially leaving next winter; the Reds have an option on him for 2012, but I’d be surprised if he pitches well enough this year to make them comfortable paying him $12 million next year.
Obstructed View: Are you worried about a repeat of Prior/Wood with Dusty? I should point out that I do not in any way blame Baker for their injuries. I’m one of the few Cubs fans who feels that way, but injuries to pitchers are just part of the game. I’m just wondering if there’s a sense that he’s breaking some of the starters similarly to how some of the Cubs top starters went down earlier in the decade.
Justin Inaz: With the exception of being at least partially responsible for breaking Aaron Harang in 2008, I think Dusty and his crew have been extremely good with limiting our starters’ workloads. As an example, with Mike Leake last year, they gave him extra rest whenever they could, and shut him down almost as soon as he started to show fatigue later in the season. Pitch counts for young starters very rarely go over 110, and almost never go into the 120 range. I really have seen zero indication that Dusty is a problem in terms of his starter usage in his time with the Reds. If he was the guilty of this in Chicago, I think he learned from his mistakes.
Even in the case of Harang, while I think it was a bad idea to bring him back on short rest after his emergency relief appearance back in 2008, I think most people in the Reds’ organization thought he would be able to handle it: he was a big guy with a smooth and repeatable deliver, and an absolute workhorse to that point in his career. Harang stated this offseason that he did think this was a factor in his rapid decline, but I also tend to think this was not just Dusty’s decision–those kinds of things almost have to be organizational decisions.
If I can insert a plug, Ken Massey wrote a terrific review of Dusty Baker’s managerial tendencies in the Reds’ Maple Street Press annual. He explicitly looks at usage of starters, and finds no indication of a problem (again, based on his time with the Reds): http://www.
Obstructed View: Will Edgar Renteria still be a member of the team in October?
Justin Inaz: I think so. Janish is the starter right now, but if he struggles in April or May, I can easily see Renteria taking a lot of his playing time. Even if the Reds don’t need Renteria, though, who is likely to want him come July? He’s just not very good. And assuming the Reds are in contention, I expect that Dusty will want him around because of his past post-season clutchiness.
Obstructed View: Is it possible Yonder Alonso is made available near the trade deadline if the Reds are in contention or do the Reds intend to move him to another position? Votto has that position locked down for awhile
Justin Inaz: I think this is very possible. They have attempted to play Alonso in the outfield from time to time, but by all accounts it’s not a very successful experiment. I honestly expected that Alonso and a starting pitcher would get traded this offseason to upgrade a position like SS or LF over the winter, but I think teams aren’t really sold on Alonso’s value given his fairly disappointing production in the minors (given his position and draft hype). Alonso did have a better second half, however, and may still have been recovering early in the season from a hand injury. I think the Reds are counting on him having a great first half to push his value up, and then they may try to deal him as a cheap, mlb-ready option at first base.
Of course, the other possibility is that if the Reds somehow tank this year, they may hold onto Alonso and try to trade Votto next winter while he still has two years on his contract. They’ll want a huge return in that case. But Alonso does give them an option at first base with some nice upside and little cost.
Obstructed View: The Reds improvement as a team coincides with their dramatic improvement on defense. I actually remember an article you wrote a few years ago about how much the defense was improved (think it was entering the 2008 season). They’ve gone from basically -30 UZR to +45 and it happened in one year. Does the organization have a stats guy that focuses on defense or was this something the team wanted to do based on scouting reports?
Justin Inaz: I’m not sure I’d say it was a stathead-driven change as much as an old-school baseball man decision. But it was clear, as Dunn and Griffey left after 2008, that the Reds made a very conscious decision to change the design of the team such that it emphasized fielding. The all-offense-no-field teams of the mid-2000′s were not good teams, and if nothing else, I think they figured it was time to try something else. That, and the departures of Dunn and Griffey makes it pretty easy to upgrade a team’s fielding, as they were among the worst outfielders in baseball.
The Reds did produce a very good fielding team in 2009, though they were a bad offensive team, making for little apparent progress in the standings. Last year, they were just as good in the field, and somehow also turned out one of the top offenses in the league. Their offense will likely take a step back this year, but I do expect their fielding to continue to be strong–it might even be better, with a full season of Janish at SS and perhaps some reduced playing time from Jonny Gomes in LF in favor of Chris Heisey (or just about anyone else who has a pulse).
Obstructed View: What do the Reds have to do to contend. What do you think the final standings will be in the NL Central?
Justin Inaz: To contend, the Reds need to stay healthy, keep playing good defense, and the offense needs to not take an enormous step back (though I think they can survive a smaller regression). To win the division, I think it will help a lot if one of the starting pitchers can really step it up a notch and become something more like an ace than we had last year. The biggest contenders for a big step forward, in my view, are Edinson Volquez and Homer Bailey. The others–Arroyo, Wood, Cueto, Leake–I’d be thrilled if they can keep on doing what they did last year. It also wouldn’t hurt if a few hitters, especially Jay Bruce, can really take the next step forward and increase their production to counter the inevitable declines from other parts of the offense.
I think the NL Central is clearly a three team race between the Reds, Cardinals, and Brewers, with the Cubs within striking distance but likely finishing 4th. Even without Wainwright, the Cardinals still have Chris Carpenter, Pujols, and lesser stars like Holliday, Rasmus, and Garcia to go with their scrubs. They’ll at least be decent. And while the Brewers may struggle in the field, the offense is as good as any team in the league, and their rotation is probably the best in the division. The Reds, meanwhile, probably have the most complete, well-rounded, deep team of the bunch. It’s a long season, so I like the Reds’ depth to carry them to the top and repeat the division title.
The Reds have Drew Stubb. Game over
Good stuff
[quote name=Manni Stats]Good stuff[/quote]Have you read his series on player value? Excellent.
I’d really like to see that piece on Baker. I’ve felt for a long time he’s gotten a bad rap for Wood and Prior.
ooph, maybe, but I don’t know for sure. Link?
Click on the Basement Dwellers link above and then scroll down a bit. They’re on the sidebar.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’d really like to see that piece on Baker. I’ve felt for a long time he’s gotten a bad rap for Wood and Prior.[/quote]It does sound as though his usage for the young pitchers is a bit different than it was when he was with the Cubs, but I just hate how people place 100% of the blame on Baker. Things aren’t that simple. They never are. I can accept that he’s partly to blame, but ignoring Wood’s injury history and work usage prior to Baker is insane. He’d already had Tommy John surgery, threw both parts of a double header in high school. There’s plenty of blame to go around as far as Wood is concerned. Most of it is just bad luck. With Prior you had a guy with poor mechanics who was overworked. Add in bad luck.
So yeah, I can buy some of the blame falls with Baker, but ignoring all that above is the only way you can place the full blame on him.
Only 3 of 45 on ESPN predicted Cubs to win division. Just 3 times more than the Astros: http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/the_great_satan_predicts_the_2011_season
Thanks for the nice comments. Drew Stubbs is fun, but I worry that he’s actually a bit overrated at this point. But I’ve also never been a believer. I do enjoy watching him cruise around the outfield, though. He’s got the potential to be a stud–I just worry about whether he’ll get on base enough.
If you’re looking for my player value series, it’s here:
http://www.basement-dwellers.com/search/label/player%20value
Getting a bit outdated at this point–and it’s all on FanGraphs/BPro anyway–but a lot of the theory (at least) still is pretty much correct. It was fun to do.
Cheers,
Justin
Thanks for stopping by, Justin. I spent a lot of time reading that series as you wrote it. Then a lot more time looking back over it as I was trying to apply some of it to the Cubs.
I’m not sold on Stubbs either. His on-base skills leave a lot to be desired. I think Bruce is the key to their offense not regressing too much. If he can take a step forward as you said, I think they have a good chance of winning the division.
I think the Brewers are the best in the NL Central though, but that defense could really hurt them. It’s awful even by recent Brewers teams standards.
I’m not as sold on the Cardinals as some are. I think they’re a step behind the Brewers and Reds and they’re an injury to Carpenter away from being not much better than the Cubs.
Yuni Betancourt is the shortstop and considered by some to be the “X-factor” for the Brewers. Couple that with Greinke’s injury, Hart’s speedbump with the oblique thing and Marcum’s shoulder and the Brewers may be in a bit of trouble…but probably not enough for the Cubs to overtake them, I’m afraid.
I also thought it was a crock to blame Dusty for all the pitching injuries and I actually wrote something for our facebook page about that. I guess I’m a bit biased since I liked Dusty when he was the Giants’ manager and took them to the World Series, then got the Cubs oh-so-close to glory…sigh.
my love for stubbs is reserved for fantasy baseball.
That and I think he could end up being better than Bruce
I don’t particularly care for Dusty as a person, TBH. I think he’s kind of an ass, really, but he never deserved the treatment he got here and certainly hasn’t deserved the treatment he’s gotten since he left. He’s a solid manager, players love him, and he generally does his job very well. The thing is, the coal-raking could have been worse had Dusty not had a close personal friend, Dan McGrath, working as editor of the Tribune sportsdesk during his tenure. By all accounts, McGrath deflected a lot of heat off Dusty from the poison pen crew. As bad as it was, it could have been much, much worse.
Dusty sure took a lot of shit from Cubs fans.
Literally, it would seem.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Dusty sure took a lot of shit from Cubs fans.
Literally, it would seem.[/quote]The shit thing never happened. These are the best fans in the world, in the best place in the world. Racism does not occur there. It’s like heaven with drunks. Drunk heaven. Drunk, racist heaven. Wait, no, WHAAAA?
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder] These are the best fans in the world, in the best place in the world. Racism does not occur there. It’s like heaven with drunks. Drunk heaven. Drunk, racist heaven. Wait, no, WHAAAA?[/quote]
Why do you hate America?
[quote name=melissa]Why do you hate America?[/quote]
Wouldn’t you if you had to save face in Japan?
the only bitch I have so far is that Darwin Barney is somehow being considered a possible regular. Ronny Cedeno had a better minor league track record than this kid
[quote name=melissa]Why do you hate America?[/quote]Because I am one of these socialist atheist islamofascist card-carrying union members who should be teaching for free instead of getting my below-the-poverty line stipend and minimal healthcare.
[quote name=dylanj]the only bitch I have so far is that Darwin Barney is somehow being considered a possible regular. Ronny Cedeno had a better minor league track record than this kid[/quote]The 2B options run the gamut from the merely bad to truly awful.
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Wouldn’t you if you had to save face in Japan?[/quote]
Well played, Mauer.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Because I am one of these socialist atheist islamofascist card-carrying union members who should be teaching for free instead of getting my below-the-poverty line stipend and minimal healthcare.[/quote]
(dying laughing) Just as I suspected.
I’m annoyed by the Darwin Barney Fife love this spring too. Darwin Barney is like the new Friday, Friday. Settle down, people.
[quote name=melissa]I’m annoyed by the Darwin Barney Fife love this spring too. Darwin Barney is like the new Friday, Friday. Settle down, people.[/quote]
But me so excited…
[quote name=melissa]I’m annoyed by the Darwin Barney Fife love this spring too. Darwin Barney is like the new Friday, Friday. Settle down, people.[/quote]LEAVE DARWIN ALONE!
[quote name=Rice Cube]But me so excited…[/quote]TMI
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Because I am one of these socialist atheist islamofascist card-carrying union members who should be teaching for free instead of getting my below-the-poverty line stipend and minimal healthcare.[/quote]
I get hit with a $30 co-pay here if I so much as glance at a doctor’s office as I drive by.
[quote name=Berselius]I get hit with a $30 co-pay here if I so much as glance at a doctor’s office as I drive by.[/quote]I have co-pays for medical & dental, too. C’est la vie!
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I have co-pays for medical & dental, too. C’est la vie![/quote]
I pay 5 times as much for a much, much crappier plan here in TX than I did in WI. And people wonder why people in WI were pissed over the collective bargaining.
[quote name=Berselius]I pay 5 times as much for a much, much crappier plan here in TX than I did in WI. And people wonder why people in WI were pissed over the collective bargaining.[/quote]Yeah. As if our indentured servitude wasn’t painful enough.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/money-and-march-madness/?utm_campaign=homepage&utm_medium=bigimage&utm_source=bigimage
this is well done.
I actually like Dusty as a person. I think he’s pretty funny, the players love him, and he’s always good for some memorable quotes.
I’m not much of a fan of the way he managed when he was in Chicago. I wasn’t even a fan after 2003 when Cubs fans were wearing their In Dusty We Trusty shirts, but I’ve always liked the guy.
[quote name=mb21]I actually like Dusty as a person. I think he’s pretty funny, the players love him, and he’s always good for some memorable quotes.
I’m not much of a fan of the way he managed when he was in Chicago. I wasn’t even a fan after 2003 when Cubs fans were wearing their In Dusty We Trusty shirts, but I’ve always liked the guy.[/quote]
It is what it is, when it comes to Dusty.
[quote name=Berselius]Dude, it is what it is, man.[/quote]Fixed.
how is the cubs doin? gonna win it all this year? I been readin they came awful close the last ten years, maybe this year??
I meant to comment on this as soon as it was posted. It’s cool hearing from other teams’ bloggers, but this one is particularly outstanding.
[quote name=mb21]I actually like Dusty as a person. I think he’s pretty funny, the players love him, and he’s always good for some memorable quotes.
I’m not much of a fan of the way he managed when he was in Chicago. I wasn’t even a fan after 2003 when Cubs fans were wearing their In Dusty We Trusty shirts, but I’ve always liked the guy.[/quote]I liked Dusty just fine. I always felt like he was pretty smart in a crafty kind of way. He’s like . . . grandpa smart. Wily and whatnot.
this dusty character sounds neat, like a smooth glass of good bourbon.
Reds fan here and I’ve been reading Justin’s stuff since before he began writing it. His player value series is beyond fantastic.
I pretty much agree with everything he’s said, though I am a bit more optimistic about Stubbs (but he 100% won’t be better than Bruce).
I think the Bruce breakout season deserves a little more talk however. His September call-up in 08 was very good. He mashed as well as Heyward did for the first month last year, but it got little attention because, well, it was with the out-of-contention Reds. He had some sophomore slumps to begin 09 with a low BABIP then broke his wrist, which, even after recovery, zaps nearly all a hitter’s power for about a year. In 10 he hit very well for the first half but with low power numbers. In the second half, a year after return from his wrist injury, the power returned and he hit like #1 Baseball America prospect should be expected. Keeping in mind he turns only 24 a week into this season and a truly huge breakout season would not be at all unexpected.
dude or chick?
http://video.allthingsd.com/video/ipad-2-dispelling-the-content-consumption-myth/BD87D24D-97E4-4885-8794-5FB57ADDF483
.
Well that sounds smart.
Slightly racist?
Pretty excited for opening day, not gonna lie. Maybe we will be good this year.
In reality I jsut want to see development from Cashner Castro and the kids. Maybe some people play well and we can get some good prospects?
But in reality i want the cubs to win and make this summer not dreadfulyl long
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Slightly racist?
That is fucking awesome. +1 for you good sir
This might be the worst opening day ever. My internet is unlikely to return in time to stream the Rays tomorrow, and the Cubs face both rain and snow in the forecast. Lame.
This isn’t the year Mish. Save yourself the pain.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/03/31/your-inaugural-power-rankings/
Oh, to go along with that HBT link – I wish Calcaterra would stick to his snarkiness. Seriously, the Cubs #10 and Rays #12 on the power rankings?
[quote name=Brad]Reds fan here and I’ve been reading Justin’s stuff since before he began writing it. His player value series is beyond fantastic.
I pretty much agree with everything he’s said, though I am a bit more optimistic about Stubbs (but he 100% won’t be better than Bruce).
I think the Bruce breakout season deserves a little more talk however. His September call-up in 08 was very good. He mashed as well as Heyward did for the first month last year, but it got little attention because, well, it was with the out-of-contention Reds. He had some sophomore slumps to begin 09 with a low BABIP then broke his wrist, which, even after recovery, zaps nearly all a hitter’s power for about a year. In 10 he hit very well for the first half but with low power numbers. In the second half, a year after return from his wrist injury, the power returned and he hit like #1 Baseball America prospect should be expected. Keeping in mind he turns only 24 a week into this season and a truly huge breakout season would not be at all unexpected.[/quote]
I’m worried about Stubbs’s OBP. Just glancing at his numbers he kind of reminds me of Tyler Colvin with better defense.
[quote name=Manni Stats]Oh, to go along with that HBT link – I wish Calcaterra would stick to his snarkiness. Seriously, the Cubs #10 and Rays #12 on the power rankings?[/quote]
He did pick the Cubs to win the NLC (dying laughing)
[quote name=Berselius]He did pick the Cubs to win the NLC (dying laughing)[/quote]
Perhaps that WAS snark.
I will admit, while I do still think the Cubs are a 75-78 win team, I can see some scenarios where yes, they may be in contention and even win the division outright. But that’s like, in only 15% of possible outcomes I foresee and the other 85% doesn’t end as well.
As for the Rays, I think they’ll be right around 87 wins, and may contend all the way through, but it is a hurdle with the Red Sox and Yankees still a couple wins better in true talent, and with the division generally better overall. Damon and Ramirez might be guys they try to sell if they are far enough back (and if those two are productive), and I don’t think James Shields will be a Ray on Opening Day 2012 (make room for Archer or Moore, a la Garza/Hellickson), so he could be moved too.
I don’t like the Cubs team but their division gives me some modicum of hope. I’m bullish on the Rays but the division causes me to despair.
BP’s predictions
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13345
CIN
MIL
STL
CHC
PIT
HOU
No one has the Cubs higher than 3rd place
[quote name=Berselius]BP’s predictions
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=13345
CIN
MIL
STL
CHC
PIT
HOU[/quote]
I can see Brandon Belt bringing home another ROY for the Giants. He was going bonkers in spring training, which normally shouldn’t mean much but he’s pretty highly touted regardless.
Cubs in 4th seems to be the theme this season.
My favorite pick so far was someone at ESPN (Berthaiume?) picking the Astros to win the NLC
The Pirates and Astros are so bad, I think that even if you made a super team comprised of half the Pirates best players and half the Astros best players it would still probably be in 5th place (dying laughing)
Does anyone consider mlb.tv premium to be substantially better than mlb.tv? I realize it’s only $20 dollars more, but why pay $20 for the exact same product?
[quote name=Berselius]The Pirates and Astros are so bad, I think that even if you made a super team comprised of half the Pirates best players and half the Astros best players it would still probably be in 5th place (dying laughing)[/quote]
wow, you’re definitely right about that. i’m starting to hope the pirates will eventually get good
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]Does anyone consider mlb.tv premium to be substantially better than mlb.tv? I realize it’s only $20 dollars more, but why pay $20 for the exact same product?[/quote]
DVR, HD, ability to see both team’s broadcast
Yeah I pay the extra $20 too.
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/3658/season-preview-outfield
So…why are they platooning Fukudome with Colvin when Fukudome is clearly superior to Colvin in the stats that matter, even by Levine’s projections?
[quote name=Berselius]DVR, HD, ability to see both team’s broadcast[/quote]
The last one is the most important one.
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/3658/season-preview-outfield
So…why are they platooning Fukudome with Colvin when Fukudome is clearly superior to Colvin in the stats that matter, even by Levine’s projections?[/quote]
Can someone do me a favor and get a gif for me? It’s on shaggybevo.com –> Nasty’s –> Post a pic that makes you (dying laughing) page 169 –> baboon gif.
If you give me the url for that (I’m viewing through an anonymizer that prevents downloads), I’ll make a gif/photoshop of your choosing.
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Can someone do me a favor and get a gif for me? It’s on shaggybevo.com –> Nasty’s –> Post a pic that makes you (dying laughing) page 169 –> baboon gif.
If you give me the url for that (I’m viewing through an anonymizer that prevents downloads), I’ll make a gif/photoshop of your choosing.[/quote]
http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=nwg75k&s=7
Barry Rozner took awhile to endorse the Cubs not sticking a fork in their eye on purpose, but he eventually got there.
http://dailyherald.com/article/20110330/sports/703309727/
[quote name=Berselius]http://tinypic.com/view.php?pic=nwg75k&s=7[/quote]
Awesome. Thanks.
What’s your gif/photoshop request?
[quote name=Jame Gumb]Awesome. Thanks.
What’s your gif/photoshop request?[/quote]
I’ll bank it for now, nothing comes to mind
[quote name=Berselius]I’ll bank it for now, nothing comes to mind[/quote]
Not even like a Cubs ship sinking on opening day?
[quote name=Berselius]The last one is the most important one.[/quote]I like the HD, but don’t really care about the DVR or being able to pick announcers. I got used to listening to the home team’s announcers with MLB Extra Innings and actually enjoyed it. It was nice to get a different perspective of the Cubs during away games.
I wish there was an option to listen to Vin Scully call the Cubs games. I’d pay good money for that feature. Those Cubs @ Dodgers games are some of my favorites because of Scully.
[quote name=mb21]I like the HD, but don’t really care about the DVR or being able to pick announcers. I got used to listening to the home team’s announcers with MLB Extra Innings and actually enjoyed it. It was nice to get a different perspective of the Cubs during away games.
I wish there was an option to listen to Vin Scully call the Cubs games. I’d pay good money for that feature. Those Cubs @ Dodgers games are some of my favorites because of Scully.[/quote]
I used to not care about the DVR, but I like how it’s set up on the PS3. I always found the DVR features on the web version to be too annoying to use, but it’s simple to start a game from the beginning if you’re not getting to it right away, and jump between innings.
I really liked mlb.tv on PS3, but it just wasn’t as good as MLB EI. I can’t wait to get it again this year, but won’t have it until tomorrow.
New post http://www.obstructedview.net/articles/general/nl-central-preview-st-louis-cardinals.html
Yeah I enjoy the options for TV Booth and DVR. It’s a really nice setup with the PS3, I just hope my connection drops less this year (though my PS3 is not in the best shape). Quality is really good on the iPad, hope I can utilize that for the Rays so I can keep my TV on my TV input.