Today, Ryan Braun signed a 5 year extension to his current deal with the Brewers, which already ran to 2015. It covers the 2016-2020 seasons and there is a mutual option that could be worth up to $20 million for 2021, with a $4m buyout. My gut reaction is that it’s not a great deal for the Brewers, given his age during those 5 years. The Brewers are not a large market team so they have to take more calculated risks with their investments. Braun’s pricetag could be higher the closer he gets to free agency so if they believe that he’ll be a great player by 2016 they can try to lock him down early. This still feels like they jumped the gun about 3 years to early to me.
Let’s look at the extension covering his 2016 – 2021 seasons. As we’ve stressed before, it’s important to evaluate deals when they’re signed, not after the fact. Let’s work off his Oliver projection, which is handy because it provides an extended WAR forecast into 2017 that covers his peak. Oliver projects Braun’s true talent level as a .380 wOBA in 639 PAs and -2.6 in fielding. By 2016, when the new contract kicks in, he’s projected to decline to a .364 wOBA in 578 PAs with -2.4 fielding. Still good numbers but not necessarily the greatest as a LF. Oliver pegs that at 2.1 WAR. And there’s still 5 more years! Let’s use this year’s roughly $4.3 $/WAR and let’s be nice to the Brewers and only add 5% inflation (EDIT – I am a moran, and lower inflation hurts the Brewers, not helps them. I recalculated with 10% inflation) to figure out what those future dollars are worth.
The Extension
| Year | Age | Projected WAR | Value | Salary |
| 2016 | 32 | 2.1 | 14.5 | 19 |
| 2017 | 33 | 1.7 | 11.8 | 19 |
| 2018 | 34 | 1.2 | 10.1 | 19 |
| 2019 | 35 | 0.7 | 6.5 | 18 |
| 2020 | 36 | 0.2 | 2.0 | 16 |
| 2021 | 37 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| TOTAL | 5.9 | 44.9 | 95 |
Maybe Oliver is being a bit unfair to Braun, so let’s start his numbers off based on the Fangraph fans projection of 4.7 WAR in 2011, and use the same aging curve that Oliver used. Then we’ll have
2011: 4.7
2012: 4.9
2013: 4.7
2014: 4.3
2015: 3.9
| Year | Age | Projected WAR | Value | Salary |
| 2016 | 32 | 3.6 | 24.9 | 19 |
| 2017 | 33 | 3.1 | 23.6 | 19 |
| 2018 | 34 | 2.6 | 21.7 | 19 |
| 2019 | 35 | 2.1 | 19.4 | 18 |
| 2020 | 36 | 1.6 | 16.2 | 16 |
| 2021 | 37 | 1.1 | 12.3 | 20 |
| TOTAL | 14.1 | 118.1 | 111 |
We don’t have all the details on that last option year, but even if you exclude it and start with an optimistic projection for Braun *right now* it does not look like it will be good for the Brewers. Maybe they still see something all of us are missing. Okay, this looks a little better now
Comments
Haven’t had RTFA yet, but did you include defense? What happens if you ignore it? How does that change the value?
mb21Quote Reply
What was the total value of the contract not including the option?
/too lazy to look
mb21Quote Reply
Doug Melivn has gutted his farm to make a run at the NL Central and now did this contract. Its a battle of wits between GM’s.
Your move Hendry
dylanjQuote Reply
not to mention all the added value braun receives by staying in the midwest, where he can sell shitty tee shirts.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Haven’t had RTFA yet, but did you include defense? What happens if you ignore it? How does that change the value?[/quote]
It’s implicitly included in both of them. Oliver has Braun at a roughly -2 run fielder, which might be generous. For some reason it doesn’t regress that number though.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Bulls are infuriating
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
The Fan projections had him at -8 which is closer to where I would probably put him. I’m basically just taking the aging curve from his Oliver projection and shifting it up.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=GW]not to mention all the added value braun receives by staying in the midwest, where he can sell shitty tee shirts.[/quote]
false. Mike Leake will steal them all
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]false. Mike Leake will steal them all[/quote]
braun is not a team to be messed with
GWQuote Reply
Do any of your stat fag #s account for inflation
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
my feelings on braun will always be tied to 07 when GM was telling us how Braun would be the greatest. He was half right- that bat is amazing but when the Brewers made him pretend to be a 3B it was pure comedy
dylanjQuote Reply
I don’t like the deal for the same reason I didn’t like signing Marmol to a 3-year extension. it was unnecessary. This is even more unnecessary.
I think 5% inflation is probably a bit low. I’d go with 7-8% and I’d use a current win value higher than you are using. I thought Tango mentioned that it was closer to $4.8 after the offseason. I’ll look around later tonight, but that’s what I’d use.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Do any of your stat fag #s account for inflation[/quote]
Aye, I’m using 5% inflation (which could easily be too low) off of this year’s ~$4.3 $WAR number
BerseliusQuote Reply
The Brewers consulted me before offering this contract. I told them Ryan Braun will age like Barry Bonds. Could you faget stats have predicted Deirdre Kresson case would rise from the red?
Madame LaRueQuote Reply
There’s also deferred money.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]There’s also deferred money.[/quote]
There’s a $10m signing bonus worked in there somewhere too.
BerseliusQuote Reply
so how much did the cubs pay to eat silva’s contract now?
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]so how much did the cubs pay to eat silva’s contract now?[/quote]
I think it was the sum of every dollar the Cubs have spent on payroll since 1978
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Bulls are infuriating[/quote]
Absolutely. I share your concerns from the last thread too (about being swept). Right now they have to work out a scheme that isn’t necessarily pick and roll dependent. We are handing double teams to the Pacers.
Also, Boozer’s hands might as well be baseball bats.
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]so how much did the cubs pay to eat silva’s contract now?[/quote]
Silva offered to eat his own contract as long as he had some coleslaw with it.
MishQuote Reply
So Braun is getting $145 million over the next 10 years. I started him at 4.3 WAR, dropped by .5 WAR each year, used $4.8 $WAR increased by 7.5% each year and I get $131 million. 10% discount gives you $118 million.
Just making a few tweaks: increase inflation to 10%, 4.5 WAR in 2011, 4.3 WAR in 2012 and then -.5 WAR each year after you get this:
Year $ WAR $WAR
2011 4.80 4.5 21.60
2012 5.28 4.3 22.70
2013 5.81 3.8 22.07
2014 6.39 3.3 21.08
2015 7.03 2.8 19.68
2016 7.73 2.3 17.78
2017 8.50 1.8 15.31
2018 9.35 1.3 12.16
2019 10.29 0.8 8.23
2020 11.32 0.3 3.40
164.01
149.10
The Brewers appear to be thinking he won’t age as some have due to his athleticism, which may be true and they’re also thinking inflation will jump back to 10%.
I’m not saying it’s a good deal, but I think we have to figure out what the Brewers were thinking first. Either that or they overrated him to start. I don’t know. Not a deal I’d have done. Not for at least 4 years.
mb21Quote Reply
I’m pretty sure signing a player to an extension through 32-37 years of age has only been payroll efficient 0.0001% of the time.
cdwQuote Reply
I’m a moron and got things backwards with inflation – higher inflation helps the Brewers.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I’m a moron and got things backwards with inflation – higher inflation helps the Brewers.[/quote]I think it’s a terrible deal only in that it was not necessary. Overall i think the money is OK. I think Braun is probably a good bet to age well assuming he remains healthy and that he’s done in his career.
mb21Quote Reply
Refs ——> trying to force game 5
Also b not trying to be politicL but I think your inflation # is low
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Absolutely. I share your concerns from the last thread too (about being swept). Right now they have to work out a scheme that isn’t necessarily pick and roll dependent. We are handing double teams to the Pacers.
Also, Boozer’s hands might as well be baseball bats.[/quote][quote name=Mish]Absolutely. I share your concerns from the last thread too (about being swept). Right now they have to work out a scheme that isn’t necessarily pick and roll dependent. We are handing double teams to the Pacers.
Also, Boozer’s hands might as well be baseball bats.[/quote]
(dying laughing) that you tim? Just had the same convo with my cousin
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Post fixed for inflation. It looks better now and I think it’s just a kind of bad deal instead of an awful one.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Mcnutt had a rough start goinf to pen he is
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Refs ——> trying to force game 5
Also b not trying to be politicL but I think your inflation # is low[/quote]
I might be misreading your comment bubs but the inflation number is relative to the MLB free agent market, not necessarily the USD.
BerseliusQuote Reply
holy shit
http://rivals.yahoo.com/highschool/blog/prep_rally/post/New-York-pitcher-fires-all-strikeout-no-hitter?urn=highschool-wp1211
dylanjQuote Reply
I think 5% is reasonable. The league can’t expect to grow at 10% indefinitely. Revenue got a big boost with mlb.tv, pretty much every team has a newish stadium.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]holy shit
http://rivals.yahoo.com/highschool/blog/prep_rally/post/New-York-pitcher-fires-all-strikeout-no-hitter?urn=highschool-wp1211%5B/quote%5DWow
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Cameron Smith]Pitching any no-hitter is an accomplishment. Doing what Elmont (N.Y.) High sophomore Danny Almonte did on Wednesday, on the other hand, is almost beyond belief.[/quote]
.
GWQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]I might be misreading your comment bubs but the inflation number is relative to the MLB free agent market, not necessarily the USD.[/quote]
You read it correct I am talking about the us economy printing so much money that inflation usa wide is double digits.
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Hotsauce
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
Bjax went oppo
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Bjax went oppo[/quote]
He’s a nice little player.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=GW]I think 5% is reasonable. The league can’t expect to grow at 10% indefinitely. Revenue got a big boost with mlb.tv, pretty much every team has a newish stadium.[/quote]A couple GMs quoted by Stark or someone else on ESPN said they expected it to return to where it had been before.
Keep in mind that MLB players make the smallest amount of total revenue in all four sports. That’s not going to stay like that forever. There’s still plenty of room for salaries to grow.
Also, baseball is such a global sport now that I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect inflation to be double what it is here. MLB just signed deals to televise games in China and Vietnam.
Any inflation rate below 7.5% is too low an estimate in my opinion. It may not reach 10% again, but I bet it’s fairly close. TV contracts are only going to become more valuable in the future as scripted programming costs entirely too much money for the networks. I expect MLB to get back on one of the networks on Monday night in the near future. I expect local contracts to go through the roof in much the same way college football and NFL tv contracts have done the same in recent years.
I think there’s a lot more revenue to be had and I think we’ll see player salaries continue to rise at close to double the national average.
mb21Quote Reply
Looks like McNutt’s start was about like Garza’s first few this season in terms of hits allowed. None left the park. A .444 babip in tonight’s game. He did give up 3 doubles so it looks he was hit as hard as Garza had been as well.
mb21Quote Reply
Fuck yeah Bulls.
MishQuote Reply
bulls! Also bjax should be up soonif we want to win
bubblesdachimpQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]A couple GMs quoted by Stark or someone else on ESPN said they expected it to return to where it had been before.
Keep in mind that MLB players make the smallest amount of total revenue in all four sports. That’s not going to stay like that forever. There’s still plenty of room for salaries to grow.
Also, baseball is such a global sport now that I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect inflation to be double what it is here. MLB just signed deals to televise games in China and Vietnam.
Any inflation rate below 7.5% is too low an estimate in my opinion. It may not reach 10% again, but I bet it’s fairly close. TV contracts are only going to become more valuable in the future as scripted programming costs entirely too much money for the networks. I expect MLB to get back on one of the networks on Monday night in the near future. I expect local contracts to go through the roof in much the same way college football and NFL tv contracts have done the same in recent years.
I think there’s a lot more revenue to be had and I think we’ll see player salaries continue to rise at close to double the national average.[/quote]
That bit about MLB salaries being the smallest percentage of revenue of any of the major sports surprises me. I would have expected it to be football. The perception must exist because there is more focus on the teams with high payrolls, but in reality there is such variance in payroll between teams.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=6404718&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d6404718
so the guy with the queer quasi papal outfit writes for ESPN now?
dylanjQuote Reply
[quote name=dylanj]http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=6404718&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fmlb%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d6404718
so the guy with the queer quasi papal outfit writes for ESPN now?[/quote]He’s been doing it for a bit now.
MishQuote Reply
There is a hobbit sighting 4 blocks from my house. That is way too close for my comfort.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]There is a hobbit sighting 4 blocks from my house. That is way too close for my comfort.[/quote]
Hie they back to the Shire!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Luongo is projected to give up 20 goals this game.
GBTSQuote Reply
Now he’s only projected to give up 9. Terrible finish to the period by the Blackhawks.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Absolutely. I share your concerns from the last thread too (about being swept). Right now they have to work out a scheme that isn’t necessarily pick and roll dependent. We are handing double teams to the Pacers.
Also, Boozer’s hands might as well be baseball bats.[/quote]
The Bulls haven’t looked great in these first 3 playoff games, but I hope you aren’t actually worried about being swept in the second round.
The Magic don’t have the wing defenders that the Pacers do to throw at Rose. And I’m not sure why you think the Bulls are pick-n-roll dependent. They really haven’t been overly reliant on this season. They get plenty of baskets off isolation, spot-ups, and cuts.
I have thought all season long that the Heat were going to be the biggest challenge in the playoffs, and I still feel that way. Bulls do match up pretty well with the Heat though.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
The Bulls also have a nasty tendency to play down to their competition.
They lost to the Nets, the Clippers and two to the Bobcats that they had no business losing, plus they played other bad teams awfully close when they should have stomped them.
Then they go and sweep that Heat, and win big games against the Celtics, Lakers, and Orlando down the stretch. I don’t think they get swept in any round. They can beat anyone, but they can lose to anyone too.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]The Bulls also have a nasty tendency to play down to their competition.
They lost to the Nets, the Clippers and two to the Bobcats that they had no business losing, plus they played other bad teams awfully close when they should have stomped them.
Then they go and sweep that Heat, and win big games against the Celtics, Lakers, and Orlando down the stretch. I don’t think they get swept in any round. They can beat anyone, but they can lose to anyone too.[/quote]
Also lost to the Raptors too. Pacers are also much better than their final record. After their coaching change they changed their rotations and have been an above .500 team.
Also they are kind of a tough matchup for the Bulls with a bunch of long wing defenders to throw at Rose, a pick-n-pop forward (Hansbrough) and a point guard that they use to run Rose off a ton of screens. Add in a couple of goons, and I’m ok with an ugly 3-0 series lead.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
Roy Oswalt has a no-hitter through 3 IP.
/jinx’d
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Nice snark.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Roy Oswalt has a no-hitter through 3 IP.
/jinx’d[/quote]
If I had children they would call you a fun-sucker.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]If I had children they would call you a fun-sucker.[/quote]
My kid already calls me a fun-sucker.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Luongo —-> broken
It’s officially official.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Jay Jackson returned to AAA tonight for his first W of the season. How many starts before he gets a majors nod?
fight2winQuote Reply
[quote name=fight2win]Jay Jackson returned to AAA tonight for his first W of the season. How many starts before he gets a majors nod?[/quote]
It’ll take them another two starts to realize James Russell sucks, so maybe after that.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Luongo —-> broken
It’s officially official.[/quote]
I had that series written off on Monday. What a difference a couple of days makes. Game 6 should be a wild atmosphere.
Hector VillanuevaQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Luongo —-> broken
It’s officially official.[/quote]
I hope he stays that way.
melissaQuote Reply
Austin Bibens-Iwontgetacallupcuzmynameislong has been pretty good too. 20ks in 3 starts.
fight2winQuote Reply
No more no-hitter. Which doesn’t really matter because Oswalt is having a Harden-esque pitch count at the moment.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]No more no-hitter. Which doesn’t really matter because Oswalt is having a Harden-esque pitch count at the moment.[/quote]
This once again proves that I’ve seen numerous no-hitters jinxed by blog comments.
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=melissa]This once again proves that I’ve seen numerous no-hitters jinxed by blog comments.[/quote]
Fun-sucker.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
BerseliusQuote Reply
the way I look at it is this: Braun was underpaid since he came up just like Pujols was.
Braun will overall make $150M over 14-15 years (assuming they buy him out instead of picking up the option on the last year) which averages out to be $10-11M/yr over that span. MIL had to do something. They won’t sign Fielder. Can’t afford both. I dunno. They are just gambling that he’ll age well and they need somebody to sell tix. It’s not that terrible, imo, you stat fagets (dying laughing)
Horny GoatQuote Reply
and I realize he’ll be a big part of their payroll going forward, $18M per, not $11M or whatever. I still think they had to do it. He can switch to 1B after Fielder leaves if they want.
Horny GoatQuote Reply
new: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/ov-roundtable-part-2.html
mb21Quote Reply