Carlos Marmol blew a save last night so it naturally sparked discussion about whether or not you should sign relievers to longterm contracts. Carlos Marmol is a very good relief pitcher and likely will be worth the contract he signed this past offseason. However, we know relief pitchers work so few innings that their sample size in a single season isn’t nearly large enough to really know what you’re going to get. We have an expectation, but consider for a moment that a starter with 200 innings will more than likely be within 1 run per 9 innings of what we expected entering the season. Most elite relievers work 65 to 70 innings. In Marmol’s 3 seasons, he’ll barely have pitched the equivalent of one full season as a starter. So the range in a relievers expected production is huge. As such, it’s always been my opinion that there are very few elite relievers worth signing to longterm contracts.
But just how unreliable are they from season to season? We’re only halfway through 2011, but for what I want to do that’s good enough. I want to make clear that no conclusions can be reached based on what I’m doing. I’d have to use many back to back year pairings and they’d have to be full seasons, but I’m not really interested in the exact amoung of variance an elite reliever has. Somebody else can or already has done that work.
I didn’t want to use just one pitching statistic so I chose to use Run Average (runs per 9 innings), FIP and Base Runs per 9 innings pitched. Run Average tells us exactly what happened. It tells us how many runs were scored against the pitcher without concern for luck or defense. BaseRuns per 9 innings (BsR9) removes the sequencing. There’s little to no skill difference between pitchers when it comes to pitching with runners on base, but in small samples some players will give up more hits with men on 2nd and 3rd than another pitcher. BsR9 corrects this. FIP tells us what the pitcher controlled by looking only at the events he’s in complete control of: walk (and hit by pitch), strikeouts and home runs. FIP ignores sequencing (when the events occur) and batted balls. Before we call this a weakness of FIP, keep in mind that OBP also ignores batted balls and sequencing. FIP also ignores defense. xFIP, which I’m not using, removes luck from home runs per fly balls since pitchers are at about 10% over large samples. There’s very little skill in allowing home runs as a pitcher.
Each statistic is important when evaluating a pitcher. In the real world, luck matters. The defense behind you matters. How you pitch with runners on base matters. Over large samples those tend to correct themselves, but in a single season we’re often interested in how the pitcher has done and that stuff matters. If we’re trying to figure out the pitcher’s value absent the defense and batted balls, FIP is great. If we’re trying to figure out the pitcher’s value absent sequencing, BsR9 is great. They all tell us something different like AVG, OBP and SLG.
I took a look at the top relief pitchers last season using a 50 inning minimum. I figure that allows for a little bit of DL time. It also includes the occasional start. Only 6 of those pitchers had more than 6 innings pitched as a starter. None of the top pitchers had any as a starting pitcher, which is what we’d expect.
Hong Chih Kuo allowed the fewest runs per 9 innings at 1.20. Joaguin Benoit was second at 1.49 followed by Joakim Soria (1.78), Billy Wagner (1.82), Mike Adam (1.89) and Brian Wilson (1.93). Those were the only relievers who allowed fewer than 2 runs per 9 innings.
Kuo’s 1.29 BsR9 was best in baseball last season followed by Mariano Rivera (1.83). Those were the only two below 2. Rafael Soriano and Carlos Marmol were at 2.01 while Benoit was 2.03.
I calculated FIP myself and I noticed the numbers do vary a bit from what Fangraphs has though I’m unsure why. It could be intentional walks and hit by pitch, but I’m not sure. It doesn’t matter anyway. Kuo was also the best in FIP at 1.92 and only he and Carlos Marmol (1.97) had an FIP below 2. Thornton was right at 2.00 followed by Heath Bell (2.03), Wagner (2.08) and Axford (2.09).
Relievers allowed 4.38 runs per 9 innings last season. The top 10 relievers last season allowed a 1.86 RA. Calculating ERA+ in a way that tells us the percentage better or worse than average, that’s a 158 ERA+. I used this formula: ERA+ = 100 + 100 * ((ERA – pitcherERA) / ERA) where ERA is the average of all pitchers. In this case, I used relievers. Those 10 pitchers were 58% better than the league average reliever last season.
Only one pitcher in that group has not pitched this season: Billy Wagner. The first thing I noticed was that the 9 pitchers were on pace to pitch about the same number of innings as they did in 2010. Then I noticed they were considerably worse. Those 9 pitchers have a 3.32 RA, which is 21% better than the league. Still very good, which we also expected, but not nearly as good as the previous season.
I don’t want to bore with you with each stat like I did with RA, so I’ll just say what the best 10 in BsR9 and FIP were and then look at how they have done this season. The top 10 in BsR9 was 2.13. This year they’re at 3.63. The top 10 in FIP posted a combined FIP of 2.11 last season and this year those same pitchers are at 2.85.
These same groups were awesome last season and they’ve been very good this year, but those 150ish ERA+/FIP+/BsR9+ numbers were down to around 120 to 130.It’s not too surprising that FIP had the smallest difference. It’s measuring only the pitcher’s contribution while the others include some things out of the pitcher’s control.
if you’re wondering where Marmol ranked last season, he was 24th in RA, 4th in BsR9 and 2nd in FIP. As expected, he’s regressed some this season and ranks 29th in RA, 57th in BsR9 and 35th among the 113 relievers who have thrown 30 or more innings this season. As I said, Marmol is still a good reliever and he was worth his contract at the time. I’d rather the Cubs have not signed him. He’s not one of the elite closers in baseball and the only season he has been was 2010. The Cubs didn’t pay him to be as good as he was a year ago so at least they didn’t offer him a ridiculous contract.
Brett Jackson has had a rough day going 1-9 so far. A few of those ABs were probably from last night, but they completed that game today.
McCutchen ———–> ASG
[quote name=mb21]McCutchen ———–> ASG[/quote]
Yay! Was wondering why the crowd suddenly cheered.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Yay! Was wondering why the crowd suddenly cheered.[/quote]They just read MB’s post and realized the Pirates had been smart with Matt Capps.
Soriano OBP —> pi/10
Judd: “If you’re Koyie Hill, which fingers are you throwing down?”
Me (thinking): “The ones that he didn’t cut off…”
/evil
[quote name=Rice Cube]Judd: “If you’re Koyie Hill, which fingers are you throwing down?”
Me (thinking): “The ones that he didn’t cut off…”
/evil[/quote]Better question: If you’re Koyie Hill, which fingers are you picking up?
Dempster was very unhappy with being pulled after 5 IP. I agree with the decision but still found it amusing.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Dempster was very unhappy with being pulled after 5 IP. I agree with the decision but still found it amusing.[/quote]If that was Z, Sullivan would have already had 5000 words posted about it.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]If that was Z, Sullivan would have already had 5000 words posted about it.[/quote]
You think he just has a file that he plugs in Mad-Libs style?
Anyone else’s WGN feed just kick out?
Castro got an error on that?
(dying laughing), my WGN feed on cable was just replaced by CSPAN
Koyie Hill sucks from both sides of the plate.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Koyie Hill sucks from both sides of the plate.[/quote]He might be the worst player on any current MLB roster.
Drew Butera might be worse.
Starlin is good.
Kosuke SLG creeping back toward OBP again.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]He might be the worst player on any current MLB roster.[/quote]
Ronny Cedeno disagrees
[quote name=Berselius]Ronny Cedeno disagrees[/quote]
I thought Cedeno was broken/demoted/whatever.
Is there any particular reason the Pirates fans hate Aramis so much? Did he want to be traded or something?
Joey Bats just hit his 31st HR.
I see no reason to bring Marmol in here. A 3-run lead should be safe even for a bad reliever.
[quote name=ACT]Is there any particular reason the Pirates fans hate Aramis so much? Did he want to be traded or something?[/quote]
I think it was more that aside from his first season, I don’t think he hit nearly as well with PIT than he did with the Cubs
Let’s see how Marmol does, being the topic of this post and all (dying laughing)
Marmol and Brian Wilson are having more issues than I would’ve expected this season. Makes me sad.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Marmol and Brian Wilson are having more issues than I would’ve expected this season. Makes me sad.[/quote]At least they’re better than Soriano, Soria, Feliz, Nathan, Franklin…
Big break apparently. Human element?
Not a great Marmol outing. Here’s hoping he comes back fresh after the ASG and actually getting some K’s.
Pujols —> game-tying HR
MArmol is looking pretty ordinary these days.
Koyie was the only Cub position player without a hit.
team chemistry oh so awesome: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110709&content_id=21662586&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc&partnerId=rss_chc
I’d be pissed if Tony Campana were hitting for me, too.
I just think it’s funny. For awhile now fans and the media have hated Zambrano for the same shit that Ted Lilly had done though he was loved. Dempster was loved as well and now he’s not doing as well as people thought so he’s hated. The whole thing just makes me laugh.
[quote name=mb21]team chemistry oh so awesome: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20110709&content_id=21662586&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc&partnerId=rss_chc/quoteI bet the beat guys pretty much ignore this. If it were Z, it would be headline news.
[quote name=mb21]I just think it’s funny. For awhile now fans and the media have hated Zambrano for the same shit that Ted Lilly had done though he was loved. Dempster was loved as well and now he’s not doing as well as people thought so he’s hated. The whole thing just makes me laugh.[/quote]
I thought Dempster was too white to be hated.
[quote name=mb21]I just think it’s funny. For awhile now fans and the media have hated Zambrano for the same shit that Ted Lilly had done though he was loved. Dempster was loved as well and now he’s not doing as well as people thought so he’s hated. The whole thing just makes me laugh.[/quote]I doubt Dempster gets even half the heat Z would have gotten.
I think what will happen is some brainless beat guy will write about how this points towards Quade “losing the locker room,” use it to advocate for a managerial change.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I think what will happen is some brainless beat guy will write about how this points towards Quade “losing the locker room,” use it to advocate for a managerial change.[/quote]And that Demp has heart and passion because he’s such a competitor. While Z is just a crazy hothead.
This Trout guy is pretty fast.
[quote name=cwolf]And that Demp has heart and passion because he’s such a competitor. While Z is just a crazy hothead.[/quote]The Frumpy Hobbit says Demp yelled at Quade and threw something in the dugout.
[quote name=Berselius]I think it was more that aside from his first season, I don’t think he hit nearly as well with PIT than he did with the Cubs[/quote]he had a REALLY good year with the Pirates, the year before they traded him, but no one heard of him, because he was on the Pirates. His last full season with them he posted his best WAR to date.
[quote name=josh]he had a REALLY good year with the Pirates, the year before they traded him, but no one heard of him, because he was on the Pirates. His last full season with them he posted his best WAR to date.[/quote]IIRC, he started really slow the next season and got savaged by the local press, got traded and hit pretty well for the Cubs. Apparently the impression among the fans was he just wasn’t trying until he got traded.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/allstar11/news/story?id=6753170
Bochy confirms that he chose Rolen because he was next in votes received from fans.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]IIRC, he started really slow the next season and got savaged by the local press, got traded and hit pretty well for the Cubs. Apparently the impression among the fans was he just wasn’t trying until he got traded.[/quote]That team, at that time, hard to blame him.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]The Frumpy Hobbit says Demp yelled at Quade and threw something in the dugout.[/quote]They definitely were jawing for a while in the dugout, MO. I saw Dempster fling his glove and hat down onto the bench but he wasn’t throwing shit around that I saw.
[quote name=cwolf]They definitely were jawing for a while in the dugout, MO. I saw Dempster fling his glove and hat down onto the bench but it he wasn’t throwing shit around that I saw.[/quote]They both looked upset, but after the initial meeting, Quade came over and said something else and by then Demp already seemed calmer. I seem to remember he got mad at Lou a couple of times for pulling him when he had a low pitch count.
[quote name=ACT]http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/allstar11/news/story?id=6753170
Bochy confirms that he chose Rolen because he was next in votes received from fans.[/quote]I think I read that wrong. Rolen is an automatic starter because the people ahead of him on the balloting are injured.
Why won’t the Astros win?
http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=16812913
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=16812913[/quote]
I didn’t know Mark Riggins was actually just a wax statue.
Man! Check that guy for a pulse.
http://joeposnanski.si.com/2011/07/09/the-day-jeter-hit-3000/
[quote name=josh]They both looked upset, but after the initial meeting, Quade came over and said something else and by then Demp already seemed calmer. I seem to remember he got mad at Lou a couple of times for pulling him when he had a low pitch count.[/quote]Cute that Sullivan conveniently forgot to include that little nugget. He is a wholly incompetent piece of cattle shit.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I doubt Dempster gets even half the heat Z would have gotten.[/quote]No doubt. He won’t get anything near the crap that Z would get.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Cute that Sullivan conveniently forgot to include that little nugget. He is a wholly incompetent piece of cattle shit.[/quote]He didn’t include it at all? There would have been 13 separate blog posts by him by now if it was Z. The entire recap would have been about that incident and then a couple lines about the actual game. Wow, he really is a piece of shit.
The Hobbit wrote a whole post about the Dempster dust-up.http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0710-cubs-pirates-chicago–20110710,0,7703137.story
I found it interesting that he led with the fact that Dempster was Quade’s biggest supporter last season which was my first thought. Of course he mentions Z twice in the article. One was a quote by Quade that I felt made little sense, he is talking about pitchers being upset when they’re pulled:
So, Quade had to mention that Z has gotten too loud in his opinion from time to time as well. It seems every time someone on the team has an emotional outburst that Z has to get thrown under the bus with them, I suppose that’s to be expected. Quade basically tried to downplay it and said he expects it from veterans but wouldn’t like a young player doing it. Not sure why he felt the need to add that either.
[quote name=melissa]The Hobbit wrote a whole post about the Dempster dust-up.http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-0710-cubs-pirates-chicago–20110710,0,7703137.story
I found it interesting that he led with the fact that Dempster was Quade’s biggest supporter last season which was my first thought. Of course he mentions Z twice in the article. One was a quote by Quade that I felt made little sense, he is talking about pitchers being upset when they’re pulled:
So, Quade had to mention that Z has gotten too loud in his opinion from time to time as well. It seems every time someone on the team has an emotional outburst that Z has to get thrown under the bus with them, I suppose that’s to be expected. Quade basically tried to downplay it and said he expects it from veterans but wouldn’t like a young player doing it. Not sure why he felt the need to add that either.[/quote]Note that Z’s name is in brackets. Sullivan put that there. I’d really like to see video, because MB and I have caught Sullivan doctoring quotes on two occasions, so we know the man isn’t above sheer fabulism.
Lineup today
Reedz
Cassie
Rodrigo
Bake
Sote
Lon
Adolfo
Barn
Moaney
berselius thinks Moaney is pitching every day. (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]berselius thinks Moaney is pitching every day. (dying laughing)[/quote]
No, I just have no idea what day of the week it is and thought that yesterday was Sunday (dying laughing)
I like giving the LHH’s a break against Maholm (who’s basically a LOOGY who happens to have a starting job).
For all you Dexterfags, I brain dumped some thoughts on the show on my blog http://berselius.blogspot.com/2011/07/summer-tv-countdown-14-dexter.html.
If I keep advertising soon my readers will reach double digits (dying laughing)
[quote name=ACT]I like giving the LHH’s a break against Maholm (who’s basically a LOOGY who happens to have a starting job).[/quote]
From what I remember Maholm is a fairly underrated pitcher. I’d know better if I weren’t too lazy to write the preview for this series (dying laughing)
Maholm’s career splits:
against RHB: .295 /.357 /.446
against LHB: .213 /.283 /.304
So, props to Quade
[quote name=Berselius]From what I remember Maholm is a fairly underrated pitcher. I’d know better if I weren’t too lazy to write the preview for this series (dying laughing)[/quote]I admit, I was a little harsh on him. He’s not bad, but not good either. He gets a lot a groundballs, is tough of lefties, and doesn’t strike out many batters.
Ooooh.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/7/10/2267839/the-best-and-worst-hitters-at-making-pitchers-work
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ooooh.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/7/10/2267839/the-best-and-worst-hitters-at-making-pitchers-work/quote
Before reading the article, I’m going to guess that there are three Cubs in the bottom ten
Natch, there are none! Just two former Cubs (Miles, KPat)
[quote name=Rice Cube]Ooooh.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/7/10/2267839/the-best-and-worst-hitters-at-making-pitchers-work/quoteWe need to get that tool and do the Cubs’ lineup. It shouldn’t take long. (dying laughing)
MO, I heard the audio and Quade said “z” which NDB replaced with his name. We all know who Z is, so not sure why he just didn’t print exact quote.
Listening to Oneri Fleta on the score. He just said Vitters is making “perfect progress.”. Also emphasized that he would still be in college, sounds like excuse making to me. No mention of the great Hayden Simpson yet.
[quote name=melissa]MO, I heard the audio and Quade said “z” which NDB replaced with his name. We all know who Z is, so not sure why he just didn’t print exact quote.[/quote]Ah. Still odd, but yeah there’s no need for Quade to say that, but the man just never shuts up. Never. Shuts. Up.
[quote name=melissa]Listening to Oneri Fleta on the score. He just said Vitters is making “perfect progress.”. Also emphasized that he would still be in college, sounds like excuse making to me. No mention of the great Hayden Simpson yet.[/quote]This org…./shakes head
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]We need to get that tool and do the Cubs’ lineup. It shouldn’t take long. (dying laughing)[/quote]Here’s the formula: PFF = 100 * (Pitches / Outs) / (LgPitchesPerOut)
If I wasn’t so lazy, I’d do it.
[quote name=Berselius]Natch, there are none! Just two former Cubs (Miles, KPat)[/quote]
I too was surprised.
I don’t know what’s wrong with this. We all know Zambrano can get a little nutty. I don’t see anything wrong with it.
Once again, I really like how Quade handled something like this. He didn’t make a big deal out of it. As far as I’m concerned, Mike Quade is easily the best manager the Cubs have had in my lifetime when it comes to dealing with this shit and there’s not even a close second. He destroys every single manager I’ve watched on this team in that regard.
[quote name=mb21]I don’t know what’s wrong with this. We all know Zambrano can get a little nutty. I don’t see anything wrong with it.
Once again, I really like how Quade handled something like this. He didn’t make a big deal out of it. As far as I’m concerned, Mike Quade is easily the best manager the Cubs have had in my lifetime when it comes to dealing with this shit and there’s not even a close second. He destroys every single manager I’ve watched on this team in that regard.[/quote]
Agreed. There are reasons to criticize Cuey but this is not one of them.
[quote name=mb21]I don’t know what’s wrong with this. We all know Zambrano can get a little nutty. I don’t see anything wrong with it.
Once again, I really like how Quade handled something like this. He didn’t make a big deal out of it. As far as I’m concerned, Mike Quade is easily the best manager the Cubs have had in my lifetime when it comes to dealing with this shit and there’s not even a close second. He destroys every single manager I’ve watched on this team in that regard.[/quote]
There’s just no need to go into any detail, and certainly not to mention any player’s name. Just say it’s over, it happens on every team, every day, and you’re moving on. Next question. But as usual, Quade is such a feckless gobshite that he just can’t help running off at the mouth until he gives Captain Limpdick a quote he can twist into a Z smear.
http://www.cubsstats.com/2011/07/illusion-of-darwin-barney.html
I don’t know, MO. He didn’t throw anybody under the bus. He just said it happens and that the only thing he didn’t like was the volume, but that it’s not uncommon either because Zambrano occasionally gets out of hand. This is something we already knew. We don’t need Mike Quade to tell us that Carlos Zambrano can overreact. We know it. We’ve seen it 50 times.
[quote name=mb21]I don’t know, MO. He didn’t throw anybody under the bus. He just said it happens and that the only thing he didn’t like was the volume, but that it’s not uncommon either because Zambrano occasionally gets out of hand. This is something we already knew. We don’t need Mike Quade to tell us that Carlos Zambrano can overreact. We know it. We’ve seen it 50 times.[/quote]Exactly. Which is why Quade didn’t need to say anything about him. You say it’s happened before and it will happen again. Everyone knows what that means. It beggars belief that Quade doesn’t know that tossing Z’s name in the ring with an incident like this is going to be fodder for the beat guys.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Exactly. Which is why Quade didn’t need to say anything about him. You say it’s happened before and it will happen again. Everyone knows what that means. It beggars belief that Quade doesn’t know that tossing Z’s name in the ring with an incident like this is going to be fodder for the beat guys.[/quote]
It was already fodder for the beat guys. If Z’s name wasn’t in the quote it would have been mentioned anyway.
[quote name=Berselius]It was already fodder for the beat guys. If Z’s name wasn’t in the quote it would have been mentioned anyway.[/quote]Agreed. I actually think Quade didn’t allow the reporters to run with it that way with his response. I’m glad he said what he did. That’s the one thing that I’m confident Quade is better than most managers at. He talks a lot and it’s annoying, but he doesn’t let the media create stories. I was a big fan of Lou, but if he were the manager there’s have already been at least two huge issues with Zambrano and this one would have been a huge issue as well.
[quote name=mb21]Agreed. I actually think Quade didn’t allow the reporters to run with it that way with his response. I’m glad he said what he did. That’s the one thing that I’m confident Quade is better than most managers at. He talks a lot and it’s annoying, but he doesn’t let the media create stories. I was a big fan of Lou, but if he were the manager there’s have already been at least two huge issues with Zambrano and this one would have been a huge issue as well.[/quote]The only thing I have a problem with is Zs name getting put into it. It was unnecessary. Period. But other than that, I agree Quade handled it in the best way possible, much as he has done with all such incidents. It’s nice to have a someone in the Cubs org who knows how to behave like a professional and an adult. (dying laughing)
new shit from 424 that he’s too lazy to post himself: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/games/first-half-mercifully-ends.html (dying laughing)