This year has been a miles-deep cesspool of suck. We can mostly all agree upon that. What hurts the most is that our core players have seemingly all have bad years; Castro's struggles have been well documented, as have Rizzo's. Shark still flashes dominance, but at the end of the year he still has a 3.69 FIP and a 4.29 ERA. I've never considered Darwin Barney a core piece, but if you did, he's batting .215/.272/.319 for a .259 wOBA, 56 wRC+. Travis Wood is .233/.258/.400 this year, for a .287 wOBA and a 75 wRC+ (I'd seriously consider pinch-hitting Wood for Barney, though Barney is still a slightly better hitter).
There are a few bright spots this year, though. Travis Wood has been dealing this year (though solidly outperforming his peripherals). He's done better than I expected. Welington Castillo has improved markedly on defense, and maintained his league-average production at the plate (which has a good amount of value as a catcher). These are two bright spots, but we could have expected them, at least sort of.
What I'm not sure ANYONE expected, though, was the very solid play of Junior Lake. He came on like gangbusters after his callup, and then cooled off considerably. This isn't uncommon; many players fail to adjust to the league that adjusts to them. Fortunately for Cubs fans, it seems like Lake has figured it out, at least a little bit. Over 206 PA, he has a .313/.356/.474 line, which is good enough for a .363 wOBA and a 128 wRC+. He's even been a plus fielder; add it all up, and he's had 1.4 fWAR on the season. He also has 1.4 WARP.
His great season is of course predicated on a few things. For one, his BABIP is .394. That looks crazy high at first blush, but his minor league BABIP is right around .350. That BABIP will fall, but not as much as one might think. He's also hitting 27.1% of his batted balls for line drives; that's way higher than the league average, and comparable to hitters like Joey Votto and Austin Jackson. I'm not saying he can't put up similar rates in the future (and LD% is the primary driver of a high BABIP, which is why the slow Votto can have a BABIP of .364 this year), but it seems high, given where he is as a player.
206 PA isn't a ton, but it's enough to give us some idea of what Lake's true talent level might be. He's currently batting .313. He can say with a 95% confidence interval that the minimum "true talent" of that performance is .250, and the highest is .376. I think he's got a good shot to settle into a .275/.310/.430 level next year, which I'll definitely take. It's not sexy, but the average CF line this year is .260/.326/.398.
Long-term, Junior Lake probably isn't the answer at any one position, but he's shown so far this year that he's not going to embarrass himself at the majors. He should get the first look at CF next year (above Sweeney if he re-signs), and I'm mildly confident that he'll earn that job. Who would have thought?
Comments
I’m more concerned about the 23% K rate vs 4.9% BB rate, personally. I think BABIP will stay fairly high as long as he’s got his legs. He’s walking less and striking out more than Soriano’s career rates, though, and not hitting for near the same amount of power, and we all agree his current rate of production is unsustainable.
I’m fine with lake as a holdover for next year until Almora’s ready, but, like Barney, if he’s a solution much longer than that something’s gone horribly wrong.
sitrickQuote Reply
Oh, definitely. I wasn’t trying to imply that Lake is a longterm answer at anything besides maybe 4th OF. I just don’t care that much about his walk rate for that reason; as long as he hits a good amount of line drives and keeps his power up, he’ll still be reasonably valuable. He’s never had a good walk rate, we’ll never fix it, and trying to fix it might break him.
MylesQuote Reply
I did a double-take when I saw you mention he had 200+ PAs. Shows how little I’ve paid attention in the last month or two (dying laughing). Lake has definitely been one of the bright spots this year. He was getting a lot of buzz going into spring training, and I think odds are good that he would have made the team if it wasn’t for that rib injury suffered in ST that made people completely forget him for the first half of the season.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I think Lake will have a difficult time even reaching his ZiPS rest of season of .267/.308/.403 moving forward. I’d probably go closer to .255/.285/.380.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Berselius:
People also forgot him because he only had a 110 wRC+ at Iowa.
dmick89Quote Reply
I wasn’t getting anywhere with the spine doctor here in Topeka so I had my neurologist refer to my the Spine Center there at KU Med in Kansas City. I spent about 10 hours there on Monday doing various tests and we confirmed that I had a pinched nerve in the cervical spine. I had asked the doctor here a long time ago about muscle relaxers and he said nothing in response. I hadn’t had a good night’s sleep since this started back in December. At best I’d get 4 hours of sleep and I got the point in May where I actually dreaded going to bed. It fucking sucked.
About all the doctor did here was prescribe some Hydrocodone. I’m an addict and don’t like that shit. I took it every couple of days just to get some fucking relief from the constant pain, but it’s definitely not something I want to take regularly and wouldn’t do it. Not to mention, it’s not really something you can take long-term.
We ran out of time for doing one more test at KU Med, but the doctor there prescribed some anti-depressant, which is actually used far more often to treat pain and tight muscles than depression. I’m not expecting any pain relief right away and haven’t gotten any. Could take a few weeks to get up to the right dosage for that, but I’ve had two awesome nights of sleeping now. The drug just completely relaxes my muscles and allows me to actually sleep in a position that is comfortable and actually conducive to sleeping.
I guess it’s just nice to finally see a doctor about this that gives a shit and wants to get rid of it. I had hoped that by this time I’d have this taken care of, but almost nothing had been done. A good night of sleep makes everything a little easier and this has fucking sucked.
I knew there was a reason I hated doctors and my experience over the last 9 months just makes it worse.
dmick89Quote Reply
I can’t even imagine that much back pain for so long. I wanted to kill myself after 3 days when I (very minorly) strained my back a couple years ago. I’m glad you’ve been able to get some sleep and hope it keeps getting better.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Byron Buxton ——-> Comped to Corey Patterson
http://t.co/r9otGoMuu7
sitrickQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
It has sucked. The pain is one thing and I’m not a big fan of it, but there are little things that you take for granted. I honestly don’t remember what it’s like to be relaxed. I feel as though I don’t remember how to do it. It’s just not something I’ve been capable of doing no matter what, which is what makes the last two nights so awesome. I’ve been relaxed. I can feel my left forearm at any point and it’s like a rock.
Then there’s the weakness associated with pinched nerves in the cervical spine. I can’t lift three plates out of the cupboard with my left hand. I can barely do two so I’ve had to use my right arm far more often, which makes it sore. Not to mention, I also have soreness in the right shoulder and weakness there.
I’ve gotten to the point where I don’t even like getting into bed. I put it off as long as I can knowing that once I lay down the pain will get worse and I’ll just lay there pissed off.
It also hasn’t helped that my dog tore her ACL two months ago and I’ve had to carry her up and down all the steps. There are steps everywhere. A step here, a step there, a motherfucking step there and one here. Two there and three or four more over there. It’s a nightmare.
I’ve decided that if we design another house that it’s going to be stepless. Just flat. No steps coming inside. None anywhere in the house or to the garage. No upstairs and no basement. Flat roof too. There could be flooding and we’ll have a flat roof to enjoy.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Sorry to hear about all the troubles. Of course be careful with the Hydrocodone, that’s always a short-term thing that’s not really a solution to the real problem. Depending on what type of ant–depressants you were given, it may have been more intended to assist you with sleep anyways. Some of the more “old school, pre-SSRI-type antidepressants were meant to do this anyway (Remeron, Trazadone for example). Often stabilizing the circadian rhythm, which is disrupted by depression – sleep, appetite, and energy changes- helps reduce those kind of sx’s anyway. Good luck with it. Hopefully you;ll be able to find a more permanent solution, even if it means a surgery.
NateQuote Reply
You know what my nearly 14 year old dog has done to help me out now that I’m carrying her everywhere? The bitch put on weight. Thanks a lot for that. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Nate:
Thanks. It’s amitryptiline that the doctor gave me. it’s prescribed for a number of reasons these days: pain, sleep and muscle relaxation being the primary off license uses from what I can tell. It’s helped with the last two, but from what I read it could take awhile for pain relief. I’m just happy to get some good sleep. I’ll take that at this point. I started at 12.5 mg per day for 7 days and then go up to 25 after that. It would be nice to get some pain relief, but I think it will take at least 7 to 10 days for that.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
This should have been an Unobstructed View placed in the Non-Baseball>Personal>Health and Wellness>Human Body>Posterior>Vertebral forum.
Please refer to Posting Directive 8.11, as amended August 2013, in the future. You have been warned.
GBTSQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I was prescribed amitryptiline half a year ago because I had trouble sleeping (specifically, I’d constantly wake up with killer headaches a couple times a week). I had to stop taking it, because I got CRAZY dry mouth and throat. Hopefully it works out for you. Eventually they gave me proprano(dying laughing) instead, but I never ended up taking it because Leah was born and I wasn’t getting regular sleep anyways.
MylesQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
A reminder post about posting posts on the proper posting of reminder posts may be needed.
Aisle424Quote Reply
i think we’re ignoring the underlying factor all of us have in common as we deal with various debilitating ailments, we’re all Cubs fans. Therefore – and I can see no other logical conclusion – the Cubs are literally killing us.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I smell a class action lawsuit.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
oh yea, that’s generic Elavil. It’s a tricyclic type, which is more old-school, or predates the SSRI’s. Its definitely for sleep, and the dose they gave you is significantly lower than when used for anti-depressant purposes. What Myles said is correct though about the strength of the anti-cholingeric side effects- dry mouth , constipation, trouble with pissing, maybe even blurry vision or heart rate problems. That’s ultimately why psychiatrists eventually moved away from tricyclics. Too many significant side effects in the parasympathetic nervous system, as well as toxicity to the liver if taken for a really long time. Elavil is apparently often used for non-depression related sleep though, and hopefully it works for you to get some pain relief and muscle relaxation too. At any rate, it feels good to utilize my graduate level psychopharm knowledge (dying laughing)
NateQuote Reply
@ Nate:
It was the doctor’s third choice, but the first two (new ones) had potential issues with seizures, which is already problematic for me enough.
Should I expect some pain relief eventually?
dmick89Quote Reply
Why are you guys so down on Lake?
I don’t expect greatness, but he’s been impressive for a 23 year old. His .834 OPS would be 27th in baseball if he had more at bats.
If he can’t stick as a starter, he at least has the talent to be a super sub and play multiple positions. But idk why so many give him no shot to be an everyday player.
Tyler SmithQuote Reply
I know I did some reading yesterday and it did seem as though people with similar nerve pain have had great success with it relieving the pain. One person said it worked immediately, but I think maybe that was psychological based on the experiences of many others that I read about. One person said it took about 4 weeks for him, but once he started getting relief it was fantastic. From what I could tell, it seemed that the average time to start feeling some relief was between 3 and 14 days.
I see the doctor in 6 weeks and we’ll probably do the other test. At that point we’ll decide on whether or not I need surgery. The good news was that he was less certain that was going to be needed than I had initially thought. That would be great.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Tyler Smith:
Myles was quite optimistic about him in this post so it’s not everyone. From what I recall in the comments, only sitrick and I wrote about him in a negative way. I think it’s certainly possible Lake could prove to be a starting player though probably not one that gives you more than 2 WAR per season. That’s definitely possible, but I still think it’s unlikely.
As sitrick pointed out, that strikeout rate is quite high for someone who doesn’t hit for a ton of power and he doesn’t walk much. He never did in the minor leagues and has always been known as a free swinger. As a shortstop, if he could still play there, I think he could probably play every day and probably not be a lot worse than someone like Castro (much better than Castro this year of course). He’d be more than effective there if he could reach his rest of season projection. I still doubt he does.
He’s been impressive, but that .363 wOBA over 206 PA is heavily influenced by an unsustainable BABIP and line drive rate. His BABIP will probably settle down in the .300 to .315 range. That wOBA and playing time gives us an estimated true talent wOBA as low as .250.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’m no M.D., just a therapist who talks to people about what to expect from their meds. Elavil, like all antidepressants, “increases” Serotonin and probably norepinehperine, tho “increases” is an over simplification. This increase often takes about 2-4 weeks, which is why if you’re ever prescribed an antidepressant, you’ll be told it will probably take that long to work. What this increase in serotonin and norepinepherine will do for pain, I don’t know exactly, but it does effect the way your brain would be interpreting emotional pain and parasympathetic disruption associated w/ depression. It could also be another unrelated effect of the medicine that causes it to reduce nerve pain. A cursory internet review makes it seem like people definitely get pain relief from it, but who knows. If it works on your pain bc of the serotonin thing, it may take a few weeks to impact your pain. If it works on pain bc of some other reason, it may be quicker. Does that make sense? I do hope you get some pain relief from it tho.
NateQuote Reply
@ Nate:
Yeah it does. Thanks a lot. It’s apparently used frequently for nerve pain so I’m hopeful. At the very least, I’m getting some muscle relaxation in the night and better sleep. I’ll gladly take that even if there is no pain relief.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
that’s good. Don’t eat grapefruit while your taking it by the way. There may also be some other foods to avoid, which either your doctor would tell you or would be on the label.
NateQuote Reply
dmick, you’ll start sleeping so well that you’ll need one of these for your morning coffee:
http://youtu.be/x07-_-yXuiU
SVBQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
That flat roof will also be great when you get that freak 20″ snowfall….
and for the roof leaks…
and for the additional heat trapping qualities in the summer…
#formerflatroofowner #neveragain
SVBQuote Reply
After watching him a few times at Iowa this year, I think Lake’s best-case-scenario is super sub for a competitive team. Some years he could get BABIP lucky, and put up respectable numbers. Players do this in normal careers. Maybe he’s better than that too, but just by watching him some before the call-up and since, my admittedly untrained eyes haven’t seen a future league average player with his flaws with the stick.
I do think it is likely he becomes something akin to Tony Campana in that his contributions are overvalued by the average fan. I also think if he ends up a super sub with what I think his talent level is, he is on a pretty good team.
SamQuote Reply
Proving yet again that children are the ultimate sleep deprivation experiment. @ Myles:
SamQuote Reply
@ Tyler Smith:
Best case scenario, he’s Soriano with much less power. And again, that’s best case. I love Sori, but mostly because he slugs the hell out of the ball. Take that away and I want no part of him in any role of major consequence on my team.
sitrickQuote Reply
Ugh F7.
Wow. I’m glad the cubs didn’t do a long term extension in June.
SVBQuote Reply
SVB wrote:
Really curious to see if his money demands come down this offseason. If they don’t, I think he’s gone.
sitrickQuote Reply
sitrick wrote:
I’ve been saying all year that I think Samardzija will end up getting traded. His ego doesn’t line up with his value and this FO doesn’t give a fuck what fans think about it if they’re getting more value in trade than they do by signing him. Samardzija thinks he can eventually get Verlander money, that just isn’t happening and they won’t let him hit the FA market because a compensation pick in return ain’t going to cut it.
I think he’s gone this offseason.
Aisle424Quote Reply
The neat thing is with Samardzija is that the media and fans all think that him signing is just a matter of time so the “OMG, THEY HAVE TO TRADE HIM RIGHT NOW” stories will be at a minimum and the Cubs can still act like they’re thrilled to sign him if they can’t work out a trade they’re happy with. Unlike the Garza dealings where everybody in the world knew the Cubs pretty much HAD TO trade him.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[img]http://25.media.tumblr.com/21aae042a4d040e72deb150278cb0215/tumblr_msoao6tqnN1qdlh1io1_400.gif[/img]
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I can’t wait for the FacebookCubs/media shitstorm if he actually does get moved, but I think it’s absolutely the right decision. Harry can talk all he wants about how he hasn’t peaked yet, but I don’t buy it. By the time he gets his head on straight with pitchability his stuff will be in decline.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Me too. He’s probably quite unhappy he didn’t take the extension. The peripherals are still pretty good, but he’s not been very good overall this year. I really don’t see much need to do anything other than go year to year with him. At this point the Cubs will only spend extra money by giving him a long-term contract.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’m still not as certain as 424 is that the Cubs trade him. I just don’t think the Cubs have much pitching in the minors that is going to replace him and likely whatever you get in free agency or trade will only cost more. This is now a team that is worried about finances and I think that means they’ll likely hold on to all players pre-free agency as long as they’re providing value.
Have I complained about the Cubs so-called financial mess lately? I read recently we can expect a payroll at or under $100 million for awhile. I wish the city rejected their renovation plans. Any chance they can have a change of heart and decide to reject it?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I think they’re actually fairly comfortable with their pitching. If they re-sign Baker to a reasonable deal and do nothing else, they’ll have:
Wood
Jackson
Arrieta
Rusin
Baker
Villanueva
Then they have Samardzija or whatever almost MLB -ready prospect they’d get back. Throw in another Baker/Feldman/Maholm-type signing and they have enough to get them through one more year at bargain basement prices as we wait on the kiddos to start making their Wrigley debuts to boost the offense.
They don’t have a traditional #1, but you don’t need one if you’re not contending. They have 5 guys that can go out and give you a chance to win every day and that’s what most of those guys have done more often than not. Jackson maybe not, but he’s better than that in his career and he’s not going anywhere after signing that deal, so he is who he is.
Aisle424Quote Reply
new shit:
http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/aa-run-environments-part-ii-tennessee-walking.html
GWQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
That’s an awful rotation though. Jackson is a number 3 and Wood a number 4. I’m not sure any of the others are even starters at this point. I think we have different opinions of most of those pitchers. I’m hoping that none of them are in the Cubs rotation next year. I’d also like to think the Cubs are hopeful of this too.
Rest of season projections for those guys (ZiPS and Steamer)
Jackson: 3.65, 3.68
Wood: 4.20, 4.53
Arrieta: 4.54, 4.07 (no idea why Steamer thinks this, must be with such a short season left and those can get goofy)
Baker: 3.79, 4.21 (numbers are about useless since he hasn’t pitched regularly in forever)
Rusin: 4.76, 4.44
Villanueva: 4.02, 3.9 (as a reliever so add a run as a starter)
That rotation might just do it for me. There’s honestly not a single pitcher there that I’d ever miss and I’d ever tune into see.
The question is at what point are the Cubs going to try and win games? If the answer to that question is always next year or in two years, I’m done. There’s other baseball.
dmick89Quote Reply