Justin Grimm, Setup Man

In Commentary And Analysis by GW

When Justin Grimm came over from the Rangers in the Matt Garza trade last year, his profile seemed straightforward. Three pitches: fastball, curveball, and changeup. There was nothing remarkable about any of them. The fastball sat around 92-93, and he was starting to mix in a sinker. His minor league numbers were OK. In limited major-league appearances, his peripherals were around league-average, but his traditional rate stats were not good. In short, he seemed like run-of-the-mill rotation depth. Mid-rotation upside at best with a Triple-A floor. What Grimm distinctly did not look like was a late-inning reliever.

When he broke camp in the bullpen this year, though, I didn’t find it particularly surprising. Long reliever/swingman type… yeah, I can see that. With Carl Newhouse filling in for Jake Arrieta in the rotation, the team was going to need someone to soak up innings from the ‘pen. Now, fast forward to opening day. The Cubs are in a scoreless tie with the Pirates in the bottom of the 9th and… Justin Grimm is on to pitch? This marked the first time that I questioned manager Rick Renteria’s strategic chops. Plenty of managers go with a long reliever in the 10th inning of tie-games on the road. In fact, it’s probably the default move, even though it’s ridiculous. But in the 9th inning? That’s doubling down on dumb. It quickly became apparent, though, that’s not what Renteria had in mind. Grimm faced only Travis Snider and Andrew McCutchen before being lifted for James Russell. And in 8 appearances since then, Grimm has entered in the 7th inning or later of reasonably close games in every one. His appearances have all been for four outs or less. It’s clear that the Cubs see Grimm as a short reliever. Grimm understands that, and even threw is hat in the ring for the closer job.

So, how is the transition from starter to reliever going? Well, the results so far have been mixed. On the one hand, he now looks like a reliever. His fastball sits around 95 mph. He has ditched his changeup and is throwing the curveball less. He started tinkering with a slider at the end of last season, and so far in 2014 it has been his second-most used pitch, checking in at around 86 mph. His strikeout rate on the season has jumped to 29%. All of that adds up to the profile of a typical late inning reliever.

That’s where the good news stops, however. Per Fangraphs’ reading of the PITCHf/x data, Grimm has only thrown 37% of his pitches in the strike zone in 2014. That’s enough to make Carlos Marmol grimace. While it’s true that some relievers can get away with living out of the zone, so far Grimm hasn’t. He has walked 6 in his 8 and 2/3 innings. Opposing hitters seem content to leave the bat on their shoulders, having offered at only 38% of his pitches so far.

On the whole, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens with Grimm. As a starter, he didn’t have any particular walk issues, so it may be just a matter of time until he becomes comfortable with his new role and repertoire. The “new and improved” Cub bullpen isn’t exactly living up to the hype, though, so they need all the help they can get.

Share this Post