Iowa Cubs @ Albuquerque Isotopes
Jake Arrieta's Iowa debut was suspended in the top of the second, which is great because Arrieta was on his way to a blowup second, giving up a hit and 2 walks without getting an out. It's also great because I-Cubs.
Huntsville Stars 1 @ Tennessee Smokies 3
Arismendy Alcantara went deep for the 12th time Friday in a 2-4 day, adding a double and a SB for good measure. Alcantara had the Smokies' only 2 XBHs on the day. John Andreoli and Christian Villanueva were both 2-3, with Andreoli swiping a bag. No Smokies walked on the day.
Alberto Cabrera was damn good, allowing a run on 4 hits and 2 walks in 7.2 IP, striking out 7. Cabrera's been on a particularly hot streak lately, giving up 2 runs or less in 8 of his last 10 starts, posting a 2.73 ERA in 66 innings, striking out 65 and walking 3 per nine. Kyle Hendricks gets all the good pub, but don't sleep on Cabrera, who's missing more bats and has been just a notch less dominant.
Hunter Cervenka faced one batter and struck him out. Frank Batista worked the ninth, giving up 2 hits and striking out 2 in a scoreless frame.
Daytona Cubs 5 @ Brevard County 2
Javier Baez got promoted! He celebrated with a 1-3, 1 BB, 2 SB day and, of course, a strikeout. He closed the book on his Daytona career with a .256/.319/.507 line in 99 games, 21 homers, a 23% K rate, and a 6.1% walk rate. Cross your fingers and hope the improvements in approach we've seen over the last 200 PAs or so carries over to AA.
Other than that, this was a fairly ho-hum day for Daytona. Wes Darvill's home run was the team's only XBH, going 1-5. Dustin Geiger was 2-4. Chadd Krist was 1-2 with 2 BBs, and made 2 outs on the basepaths, getting picked off and caught stealing. Taylor Davis was 1-4.
Zach Cates got the start, and worked 6 innings of 2 run ball, allowing 6 hits and striking out 4. Luis Liria gave up a hit and struck out one in a scoreless 7th, and Frank Del Valle worked the last 2, allowing a single hit and striking out 3.
Quad Cities River Bandits 7 @ Kane County Cougars 8
Big day for Albert Almora, going 2-4 with a triple and a homer. Dan Vogelbach was right behind him, going 2-4 with a bomb of his own. Giuseppe Papaccio was 2-4 with a double, as was Gioskar Amaya. Jeimer Candelario was 0-2 but walked twice. Marco Hernandez was 1-3 with a BB.
Brian Smith gave up 3 runs in 5 innings, allowing 3 hits and 3 walks against 1 strikeout. Lendy Castillo continues to be awful, allowing 5 hits, 3 runs, and 3 walks in 3 innings, striking out nobody. Justin Amlung worked the ninth and got the save despite allowing a run on a hit and a strikeout. The pitching here kinda stinks now that Pierce Johnson's gone.
Tri-City Dust Devils 9 @ Boise Hawks 3
Not much going on here offensively. The roster did walk 6 times, which is good to see, but the Hawks had 4 guys in the starting lineup yesterday hitting below the Mendoza Line to start the year. Carlos Penalver was 1-3 with a double. Shawon Dunston was 0-2 with 2 BBs and a caught stealing. Other than that, meh.
Trey Lang got the start and was awful. 5 hits, 3 walks, and 8 runs (7 earned) in 2+ innings pitched. He faced 6 batters in the third and failed to record an out. He did strike out 3, so there's that. Ethan Elias was much better, working 3 innings of scoreless 1 hit ball, striking ot 1. Trey Masek gave up a single run and 2 hits in his 2 innings, walking 1 and striking out 3. Tyler Skulina worked a perfect 8th, striking out 1, and Orbandy Rodriguez did the same in the ninth.
Shamil Ubiera with the game of the day here, going 2-4 with a homer.
Alberto Diaz worked a perfect 7th, 8th, and 9th to close it out, striking out 3. That's easily the only interesting thing that happened in this one.
Charcer Burks, Zak Blair, and Kevin Brown all went 1-4, Brown sending his for a double. Rashard Crawford was 1-3 with a walk. Mark Malave was 1-2 with a walk. Michael Wagner worked the ninth inning and allowed a hit and a walk in a scoreless frame, striking out 1.
Pittsburgh Pirates 6 @ Chicago Cubs 2
Francisco Liriano threw the second complete game of his career against this offense yesterday, which about says it all, I think. Scott Hairston was 1-3 with a 2 run homer in the 2nd. Starlin Castro was 1-4 with a double, and has only gone hitless once since his day off in Milwaukee, though he did get the TOOTBLAN pickoff, getting caught between 2nd and 3rd by Russell Martin). Dioner Navarro was 2-3 with a walk. Cody Ransom was 1-2 with 2 BBs. Anthony Rizzo was 0-3 with a BB.
On the pitching side, we got Lousy Jeff Samardzija. He had poor command (5 walks), got slapped around a bit (9 hits, including 2 triples and a double), and didn't miss bats the way we expect (only 3 strikeouts) in his 6 innings of work. The result was 5 earned runs and a hole the flaccid offense couldn't dig its way out of.
Henry Rodriguez gave up a hit and a walk in a scoreless 7th, striking out 1. Hector Rondon gave up a run on 3 hits and a walk in the 8th. And new Cub Pedro Strop worked a blemish-free 9th
Comments
Cabrera’s K%-BB% is actually better than Hendricks’ (15% to 14.1%). He’s also a year older than Hendricks and is in need of being promoted just as bad as he is. Honestly, Rosscup, Cabrera, and Hendricks should all be promoted really soon; they’ve all deserved it and they are all old enough.
MylesQuote Reply
wow, i didn’t realize that. the other one was a no-hitter!
GWQuote Reply
did the cubs do away with their other dsl team this year?
GWQuote Reply
GW wrote:
Yes, and added the VSL team that they didn’t have previously (to my knowledge)
MylesQuote Reply
Yeah, the 2013 VSL Cubs are the first team they’ve had in Venezuela
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
that makes sense, i suppose
GWQuote Reply
http://boisehawksradio.mlblogs.com/2013/07/06/roster-shuffle-nets-2nd-round-pick-zastryzny/
GWQuote Reply
I get the nagging feeling that the Cubs are going to suck in 2014 now despite my most optimistic projections.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I don’t know about “suck.” I think they’ll try and get to about an 80-82 win team on paper. It won’t be great, but it should be palatably mediocre. I think they will make push for Ellsbury and maybe Choo. There’s nothing at 3B in the upcoming FA class, and I don’t see them making a play for Cano at 2B, who will command silly money, so I think they’ll try and upgrade the offense in the OF, where they have both CF and RF open and no one in the minors ready to step in at either position. Beyond that, the SP class is not bad and THoyer have shown themselves to be pretty adept so far at making serviceable acquisitions there.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
@ Myles:
I think accepting a dose of reality now will save you from a lot of heartache later, Myles.
But just to prove I’m not the resident Debbie Downer, remember I’m the one that plotted a path to success in the majors for Kyle Hendricks despite his low K rate, and Bijan Rademacher despite his lack of power. I prefer to invest my hopeless optimism in places where I, like the Cubs, really have very little investment. heh heh.
SVBQuote Reply
Regarding obtaining 480-600K in IFA cap space:
I bet Thoyer isn’t really considering trying to get that as part of a Garza trade. That would devalue him pretty highly, I’d think. OTOH, don’t you think one or some of the following “prospects” might be worth the cap space? They are talent, but at this point I don’t think they are “impact.” All have a big enough ? in their repertoire that they may be more useful to the Cubs as IFA cash.
Josh Vitters
Bijan Rademacher
Kyle Hendricks
Jae-hoon Ha
Hayden Simpson ((dying laughing) (dying laughing), couldn’t resist)
Yes, my previous comment put this idea in my head.
SVBQuote Reply
Shamil Ubiera
Wow. Great name.
SVBQuote Reply
Does this mean Alcantara gets moved to 2nd base?
dmick89Quote Reply
Or promoted to Iowa?
sitrickQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
I hope so, but I think we’d have heard about that at the same time, or shortly after.
dmick89Quote Reply
Alcantara has played 21 games at 2nd base, but I’d really like to see if he can stick at SS. From what I read about his defense at AA, it was about average IIRC. Maybe Christian Villanueva will get promoted to AAA and Baez moved to 3rd, but I don’t really like that idea either. Hopefully Alcantara is moved to AAA.
dmick89Quote Reply
jeffrey antigua was promoted to iowa, elliot soto demoted to daytona. so looking like he’s going to 2nd
GWQuote Reply
I lubs me some Borbon
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ GW:
He also drove in the first run of the game!
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Nice pre-game package on WGN about the Daytona and Tennessee all-stars. Got to see a bit of Hendricks, Sczcer, Baez, and Alcantara.
Castro’s lucky he didn’t get hurt defending that stolen base. He still is just atrocious at it.
JQuote Reply
@ J:
I only saw the replay twice but I think the throw from Castillo was kinda terrible…I think Castro saved an error but again, I didn’t see it that well.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Pat said the throw was high.
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
It was both high and looked to be tailing away from the base so that probably made it look even more horrible.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GW:
I don’t much about his defense, but I’d think if he can play 60+ games at SS in 2013 at such a young age in AA that he could handle the position at Iowa. He’s right at about the same amount of playing time he’s gotten in each year at different levels. He’s walking quite a bit more, his ISO is higher and he’s been quite a bit better than at any other point. It’s not like Iowa has any prospects there.
If Alcantara’s numbers this year are a new true talent for him, he can still be pretty good at 2nd base, but this is another small guy who probably isn’t going to carry a .200 ISO at the big league level. He’s probably not going to be pitched around enough to have as good a walk rate as he’s had this year.
As a result, Alcantara’s future just got considerably dimmer. Now I hate the Ronald Torreyes trade even more. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
J wrote:
I didn’t see it this time, but I still haven’t seen much improvement with him in taking throws from the catcher on stolen base attempts.
dmick89Quote Reply
I’ve found 3 sources online, including Baseball America, and the consensus on Alcantara’s defense seems to be above average range, strong arm, an overall above average fielder at SS whose still young and needs to slow the game down a bit. Kind of like Starlin Castro. Still. Kind of like Javier Baez.
dmick89Quote Reply
BA does note he may be better off at 2nd base.
Oh well.
dmick89Quote Reply
GWQuote Reply
Orioles traded for Alex Liddi. Wonder if they would want Brett Jackson.
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89: Why does Alcantara moving to 2nd make you dislike to Torreyes trade more? I don’t understand why that makes a difference.
ktb3Quote Reply
@ ktb3:
presumably the trade facilitated the positional shift/ baez promotion.
GWQuote Reply
Zonk said that if you lead MLB in team ERA, you should have a 70% chance of winning a championship. I wouldn’t have thought twice about it if he hadn’t called out “new stats” (like “WHIP, OPS and WAR”) as maybe not being enough to predict success. To be fair, he admitted he’s not smart enough to know, and, he contradicted his own theory by wondering why the Cubs were in the basement while being in the middle of the pack in team ERA and hitting (I assume he meant BA).
Anyway, I’m too lazy to look any further back than 20 years, but over the last 20 seasons excluding 1994-95, teams that led MLB in team ERA won 5% of championships. 20% of teams that led MLB in team ERA made it to the WS.
I’m not saying pitching isn’t huge, I’m just pointing out how dangerous it is to shoot from the hip on stats stuff.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Soriano wants in on some of this Dodgers trade action.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
(dying laughing)
they are actually pretty set in the outfield. crawford/kemp/puig/ethier. even if kemp goes back to the DL, they have van slyke in AAA.
GWQuote Reply
Soriano has 9 walks this year. Nine.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
He’d be having a decent year if he weren’t swinging at pitches over a foot out of the strikezone.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Year?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Yes. He’s always had poor strikezone judgment (though it’s been worse than usual this year), but he’s had a good career anyway.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Cubs ought to sign this woman for the bullpen.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVeo6QMcbW4
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Good vid, but it won’t let me watch it without going to Youtube. Surprisingly, the comments I was exposed to there are sexist and/or spam.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ ktb3:
I was joking when I said it, indicated by (dying laughing). I didn’t like it the Torreyes deal at the time and still don’t. Not a big deal as I went over a few days ago, but probably not the best decision ever made either. Certainly not the worst.
dmick89Quote Reply
Suburban kid wrote:
I’m curious, if you substitute FIP and RA (Run Average) for ERA, what do you get? I bet RA does a better job, but it won’t be high due to the amount of luck involved in winning it all. Not to mention, pitching is only 30-40% of the game anyway.
dmick89Quote Reply
RA would have to be higher over the long-term since it includes defense. Duh. That, plus pitching, is 50% of the game.
FWIW, I’d be surprised if you even get 70% if you look at Pythagorean record.
Why would Keith say this shit? Doesn’t he have to know it’s not true? He played baseball. He was a batter and he knows damn well how important position players are to winning games.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ SVB:
That was awesome.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Damn you. I’d never have read the comments if you didn’t leave this comment. And now I think even less of human beings than I did before.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
There are really 2 parts to this. One is which teams have the best chance of getting to the playoffs, and the other is which have the best chance of winning once they get there. Trivially, the best predictor of regular season performance among pitching stats would be RA (especially if park-adjusted), since it includes the results, and not just of pitching, but fielding as well. Essentially, it’s 1/2 the Pythagorean W/L predictor. What stat best predicts playoff performance is more interesting, but I suspect RA wins here, too, since it includes both pitching and fielding.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
I was thinking the same thing. I’m… depressed.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Yep and I don’t think it was spam. I searched her name and found another article on this and the comments weren’t too different (not as graphic).
dmick89Quote Reply
Javy Baez’s first AB at AA Tennessee: https://vine.co/v/hWEgA17dZ7Z
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Yep. RA will do the best for both reaching the playoffs and winning once you’re there (among pitching stats). During the season runs scored will be equally important, but I could buy that in the playoffs that RA is slightly more important. Then again, I could also buy that RS is because the weather is colder.
dmick89Quote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
first inning. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
GWQuote Reply
dodgers picking up nolasco’s salary, slot money possibly going to ladola
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
There are a lot of spam posts there advertizing porn sites. Many are marked as spam and many are repeated over and over again. Not that the non-spam posts are any better.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
e.g., here is the top rated comment:
This is another one that is repeated over and over (with a different message at the end):
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Re: Alcantara, Parks sees his future ultimately as Barney’s replacement, for whatever it’s worth.
sitrickQuote Reply
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
@ Rizzo the Rat:
(dying laughing). Come on you guys!
Don’t you know that comment sections on Youtube, CNN, Yahoo, etc. is where intelligence and courtesy go to die?
SVBQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
They were noting how PIT were 12 games above .500 with the best record in baseball and leading MLB in ERA even though they’re something like 23rd in BA. He was showing how PIT was doing it, but for the sake of pontification went too far.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
True, but he’s always swung at pitches a foot off the plate.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
(dying laughing) (dying laughing)
At first I thought this was Soriano and related to SK and RtR’s conversation.
(dying laughing)
SVBQuote Reply
Dmick—
Will you link the IFA posts by GW to the 2013 MLB draft menu?
SVBQuote Reply
new shit
sitrickQuote Reply