John Sickels whittled his Cubs prospect list from 49 to 40. Here's the list, not sorted alphabetically or via actual ranking, but just by what position they play.
First Base
Rock Shoulders
Daniel Vogelbach
Second Base
Arismendy Alcantara
Gioskar Amaya
Logan Watkins
Shortstops
Javier Baez
Gleyber Torres
Third Base
Kris Bryant
Jeimer Candelario
Mike Olt
Christian Villanueva
Josh Vitters*
Centerfield
Albert Almora
Shawon Dunston Jr.
Kevin Encarnacion
Jacob Hannemann
Brett Jackson
Matt Szczur
Corner Outfield
Yasiel Balaguert
Eloy Jimenez
Jorge Soler
Lefthanders
Eric Jokisch
Zac Rosscup
Rob Zastryzny
Righthanders
Dallas Beeler
Corey Black
Paul Blackburn
Alberto Cabrera
C.J. Edwards
Kyle Hendricks
Pierce Johnson
Dillon Maples
Brett Marshall**
Jefferson Mejia
Ivan Pineyro
Neil Ramirez
Armando Rivero
Jen-Ho Tseng
Duane Underwood
Arodys Vizcaino
*Josh Vitters is now a left fielder.
**Brett Marshall was claimed off waivers from the New York Yankees.
Let's break this list down. The first thing that pops out to me is the distinct lack of middle infielders. Sure, Javy Baez is probably a Top 5 prospect in all of baseball (he's Top 5 at least on BP), but Sickels straight-up drops Alcantara into the 2B bucket. Amaya had a chance to really breakout last year and it didn't happen; he's still interesting but I'd imagine most systems have a guy or two like him in their minors. Watkins is apparently just going to be a bench guy in the majors. Torres is half a decade away. I appreciate how deep the talent pool is in Chicago, but there aren't that many prospects up the middle and that's a little weird. I wouldn't be surprised if the Cubs' FO focused on filling this "deficiency" in the coming years (though our 2B/SS are still good comparable to other systems).
Sickels has Vitters listed as a 3B but he's a LF now. While the infield might be sparse in the middle, centerfield as a position is LOADED for the Cubs. I'm not sure Jackson, Szczur, or Encarnacion profile as more than a 4th OF at the major league level, but Almora, Hannemann, and Dunston certainly do (Shawon Dunston Jr. is one of my 3 sleepers this year). Encarnacion is the player to watch here; he was an 18-year old when he signed 4 seasons ago and played his first 3 years in Foreign Rookie Leagues. He performed well enough at Boise (read: he destroyed the league) to be promoted to Kane County where he struggled mightily. He'll probably stay in Kane County as a 22-year old the bulk of next year, and it'll be critical that he beat it like a drum to move aggressively.
Without question, the Cubs' greatest weakness, organizationally, is left-handed pitching. Rosscup is probably a LOOGY in the majors (perhaps a 7th inning guy). Jokisch is charitably at the end of a rotation, and even only if he keep his K's up and his HR's down (a tough order for a leftie without a real fastball). Who knows what Zastryzny is going to give you? If the Cubs deal Samardzija this season, I'd prefer left-handed pitching in return for essentially this reason. Unfortunately, the teams that have good LHP are generally not the teams that would trade for Shark (Marlins, Padres). One fit might be James Paxton and the Seattle Mariners (especially since Price said he would not be amenable to an extension there).
All told, the list is encouraging. There are legitimate people not on this list (Juan Carlos Paniagua, John Andreoli, Marco Hernandez, to name a few).
The seed is strong.
Comments
Like You CareQuote Reply
Sounds like Bortles is leaning toward returning to school and Brett Hundley is leaning toward entering the draft.
PSU WR Allen Robinson —> draft
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
So from a cap perspective this looks to be about the same as dropping the franchise tag on him for three years, based on my (possibly shaky) math that estimates the franchise tag value for a QB at about $17.5MM for next year. I guess that could change based on a backloaded contract or a bonus, but given the high amount of guaranteed money I’d assume there’s not much in the way of a signing bonus there.
If it is truly $18MM flat for seven years, not much to argue with here. They can dump him at any time after the first three years with no cap penalty, and the guaranteed money is about right on the mark compared to other second-tier QBs. Whether they should have let him go or not is another question, but the contract itself doesn’t appear to be a bad one.
uncle daveQuote Reply
aggy WR Mike Evans —> draft
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Correct. /Alvin
The contract isn’t bad. Simply my opinion that the money is better spent on the defense because I think McCown and a QB drafted this year will provide 80-90 percent of the production at about 20 percent of the cost.
But that’s based on my opinion of the QBs available in this draft. CHI might not like any of them as much as I do. Plus, it’s easy for me to say because I’m not gambling a season on that opinion.
Like You CareQuote Reply
SD is +7 at Cincinnati right now. I’d like to take the points because I think the Chargers have a shot to win that game outright (if they get a Bad Dalton Playoff performance). The San Diego defense is the only one, I think, in the NFL that is clearly worse than the Bears this year, so we’ll see.
In fact, let’s lay it all out. I’ve got…
CIN over SD
KC over IND
DEN over KC
NE over CIN
NE over DEN
SF over GB
PHI over NO
CAR over PHI
SEA over SF
CAR over SEA
CAR over NE (SB XXXVIII REVENGE)
MylesQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
Yeah, you hate to think of the offense having a window to compete, but that’s kind of the sense I get. Marshall is 29, Forte is 29 (and very high mileage), and those are guys who are going to be tough to replace in three or four years when they hit their decline. It makes a pretty good “win-now” argument on that side of the ball, IMO. You can retool the offense in three or four years when you’ll be dealing with a lot of guys on the wrong side of their prime.
I know that’s contrary to your argument (i.e. that the weapons/system the Bears have right now make a restaurant quality QB with a big arm superfluous), but I like the idea of going all-in right now. I’ve never had the pleasure of rooting for a team with this kind of talent on the offensive side of the ball, and I’m rather enjoying it, wins and losses aside.
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
That seems to be what CHI is doing. Depth aside, that offense is set for the next three years. They’ll need to bring in a new QB, RB, WR or two and TE or two along the way, but it’ll go as is through Cutler’s deal.
I guess they’re banking on getting the defensive players they need in the draft.
Like You CareQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/02/is-football-dying/
(dying laughing) at all the people in the comments who missed the joke.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Berselius wrote:
You just slip out the back, Jack
Make a new plan, Stan
You don’t need to be coy, Roy
Just get yourself free
Hop on the bus, Gus
You don’t need to discuss much
Just drop off the key, Lee
And get yourself free
SVBQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
DYING LAUGHING
SVBQuote Reply
Thoughts on Cutler contract:
I believe that to be entirely too much money for a QB that will be 31 next year and has ball security issues. Bears obviously need a QB but I think with the weapons on this team, they could have re-signed McCown and drafted for 2015. In my non-expert opinion, McCown/Rookie with a Top 10 defense is greater than Cutler and bottom 10 defense. I think the Bears just forced themselves to try and get impact talent on the defensive side of the ball through the draft because I don’t see how they can afford to re-sign Melton and a DE or S through free agency.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
Right on. It’s one (or a combination) of three things:
1. They didn’t like their QB options through FA and the draft.
2. They prefer the defensive talent in the draft to FA.
3. They aren’t smart.
I think there are plenty of QB options in the draft, so my guess is that it’s mostly Option 2. They must think they can fix their defense with one draft, which is entirely possible.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
Considering how the weather has been in Chicago this winter, you really can’t blame them for focusing on the draft.
SVBQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
I think you are undervaluing Cutler a bit.
He was very mistake prone prior to this year on teams with terrible OLs and a OC still stuck in 1999. He went from a top 20 QB with that line to a top 10 QB this year. Even though people often discuss how good the OL was this year, IIRC it was still just an average or slightly above average OL. Still a huge improvement, but what do you think Jay will produce with an OL in the top 1/3rd of the league?
The concern should be fixing the DL if we don’t have much cap space, because S isn’t a position that typically has a high salary. What should help the DL is hopefully not as many injuries.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
Like You Care wrote:
Depends on your definition of “fix.” I think they can make this defense average to slightly better than average in one year if they draft well and retain a couple play-makers (Melton? Peanut?) that can still get turnovers. That should probably be good enough with the offense they have.
A better defense beats Washington, Green Bay, Detroit at least once, and Minnesota. Suddenly they’re a 12-4 team and one that nobody wants to play in the playoffs.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Like You Care:
I hope so because if the Bears had even an average defense this year, Bears win the division and might even had a bye.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ JonKneeV:
Well Cutler this year had a 3.4% INT rate which is 10th in the league. For his career, he’s 3.4%. That’s not very good. That’s higher than Romo, Stafford, Flacco, Ben and it’s tied with Eli. He definitely has looked better than he has but he still turns the ball over more than he should. Funny thing is, this offense is designed to limit turnovers yet Cutler still had an issue with interceptions. I think he’ll always have those issues because he has a strong arm and he has the confidence that he can make any throw.
I think you can make the argument that any NFL QB could put up better numbers on a team with a Top 3 offensive line. I know Cutler was extremely handcuffed when he first got to Chicago with weapons and OCs but I think he’ll always turn the ball over. He can be better, but he’ll always make you scratch your head.
MuckerQuote Reply
Interesting read about Bill O’Brien’s exit from Penn State. As you read between the lines, look at the integrity of the reporter. Made me wish he was in Chicago….
http://www.pennlive.com/sports/index.ssf/2014/01/bill_obrien_the_outsider_arriv.html
SVBQuote Reply
Mucker wrote:
Do we really think Cutler’s $18M in free agency can transform a *historically* awful defense to a Top 10 in one off season? Maybe Emery is banking on a healthier 2014 and identifying a couple playmakers via the draft. Like someone alluded earlier, resolidifying the line with Melton and Collins will also help Bostic (who I still think is good) and Greene develop, as they won’t have to constantly be making open field tackles against ball carriers with running lanes the size of the Kennedy expressway.
It would suck to blow our $$ wad on the defense and then find ourselves back in QB purgatory. I’ve said this before but as a Bears fan I’m super hesitant to play Rookie QB Roullette in the draft. I have a friend who is a Vikings fan and he pretty much wants to kill himself at this point. They’ll be spending a high draft pick on a QB for the 4th time in 8 years.
GBTSQuote Reply
I fucking love this idea.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/1/2/5266212/a-dh-compromise-hybrid-rules-designated-hitter
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Interesting idea, though I think the author understimates how much some people like to watch pitchers hit.
Incidentally, the article linked me to a fun article on Matt Garza’s hitting: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/12/17/5218682/matt-garza-whiffing-prodigy
It’s amazing how lousy his hitting numbers are despite a high (and probably very lucky) BABIP. Garza is a fun player, and the Cubs are even more boring without him.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Just finished Broadchurch. Wow. What a show.
dmick89Quote Reply
Post game Sugar Bowl interviews
“We’ve been facing adversity all year…” blah blah blah
Does any team not face adversity?
SVBQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Maybe during test time, when the tutor is unavailable…
Rice in limboQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I like watching good hitting pitchers hit. I feel it is one way a pitcher can have an advantage over his opponent by not being an easy out.
When Travis Wood pitches in an AL park the Cubs should DH for Barney.
JimLQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
I think they’d like to make the defense mediocre next year. Think about it like this: Statistically, the average team they faced had a better offense than the Bears did.
They can afford to ignore the offense in the draft. They can get the defense where it needs to be as long as they don’t whiff on the first few picks.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
Exactly.
Like You CareQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
It’s a safer route, imo. CHI has to improve their DL by re-signing Melton and adding an impact DE. CIN’s Michael Johnson would be an impact DE (he was one of the best in the NFL last season). Or you could draft Kony Ealy.
GBTS wrote:
This is very important to remember. A good front four (or three) makes everyone behind them better.
GBTS wrote:
To be fair, Christian Ponder is the only QB MIN drafted in the top 60 picks since Daunte Culpepper in 1999. But the difference between those teams and the current Bears staff is that Trestman actually knows QBs. He has a legit system and he knows exactly what he needs to run it.
I could still see them drafting a QB sometime on Day 3. Maybe Aaron Murray, Stephen Morris or Garrett Gilbert.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
For some reason I thought Joe Webb was a third-rounder, was confusing him with Tarvaris who they took in the second round.
GBTSQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Just devastating.
sitrickQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
That’s racist.
Like You CareQuote Reply
Talking about Manziel…
That’s my feeling on Manziel. Does some things SO well and other SO poorly. I wonder how he’ll handle NFL coaching.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ sitrick:
Yeah. It’s a fantastic show and I’m looking forward to season 2. Can’t imagine the FOX version will be worth watching, but I may give it a shot since I like Gunn and Tennant.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sounds like Briles is out, Ryno. I’ve been laughing at local radio these days because there was a sudden hard-on for Mark Dantonio after Jan 1.
BerseliusQuote Reply
http://www.grantland.com/blog/hollywood-prospectus/post/_/id/96592/breaking-bad-fan-arrested-drug-charges
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I assume the hiring committee isn’t as fickle as the media/fans.
Based on the rumors I’ve heard, I think it goes like this:
1. Saban: I think he wanted to take the job until he saw the clusterfuck behind the scenes. I think he has a standing offer.
…
…
2. Jimbo Fisher: Saban aside, Fisher’s their guy. They’ll interview him ASAP after the BCS Championship and offer him a contract with a Jan. 10 expiration date.
3. Art Briles: Think they prefer Fisher slightly. Briles says he’s a Bear. No shit. He says he doesn’t want to pursue another coaching job. Texas will do the pursuing.
…
4-5. Jim Mora Jr., Charlie Strong: Both reportedly interviewed. Mora apparently nailed his interview. Neither is the splash hire Texas wants, but both would be an improvement.
I saw a tweet that I think summed up Texas football. It said the media’s praise of Mack Brown was funny because Texas is basically the Death Star waiting to become operational. They just need a staff to bring in the recruits Mack did but actually coach them properly.
Like You CareQuote Reply
And stuff like this kills me:
I seriously think Mack was too concerned about his recruiting percentage to offer a perceived long shot. iirc, Saban offers about 100 recruits every year. I honestly can’t remember the last time Texas offered more than 35.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Do you think there is any correlation between Dantonio being a defensive-minded coach (looking for the ball) and the spelling of his last name (looking for the apostrophe)?
SVBQuote Reply
And now Mora withdraws his name. Makes me think…
A. Texas has already quietly agreed with a coach and is waiting for the proper time to announce (Fisher, Saban, Harbaugh, etc.). Or…
B. Texas is batshit crazy and scaring off all the candidates.
I think it’s A, but I wouldn’t rule out B.
Like You CareQuote Reply
Or C. Texas has Charlie Strong in their back pocket and is giving Fisher/Saban a deadline to jump on board.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
Didn’t Fisher just sign a mega-extension with FSU?
I think it ends up as Charlie Strong.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ SVB:
It could go either way
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, but apparently that doesn’t preclude him from leaving.
Strong would be an improvement over Mack as far as coaching, but Mack was pretty good at recruiting.
Like You CareQuote Reply
http://mmqb.si.com/2014/01/03/richard-sherman-smartest-nfl-quarterbacks/
I know I should hate Richard Sherman, but I just can’t.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
Anyone who trashes Skip Bayless and the other blowhard on Behind the Lines is tops in my book. Sherman did a pretty good job of it.
SVBQuote Reply
Well, crap, Ohio State. But that was a helluva entertaining game.
BTW WaLi, congrats on your Knights.
SVBQuote Reply
Back to Hall of Fame…
Based on the compiler at Baseball Think Factory with about 20% (114) of the ballots counted, the following candidates probably survive til next year, assuming 500 ballots and thus 25 votes needed to meet the 5% cut off.
% of compiled ballots
100 – Maddux
97.4 – Glavine
90.4 – F. Thomas
81.6 – Biggio
———————————
73.7 – Piazza
65.8 – Bagwell
59.6 – Jack (The Jack) Morris
57.9 – Raines
44.7 – Bonds
43.9 – Clemens
40.4 – Schilling
34.2 – Mussina
25.4 – Trammell
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/the_2013_hof_ballot_collecting_gizmo
SVBQuote Reply
FYI: football blows
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ SVB:
A. I thought this was Jack Morris’s final year on the ballot?
2. Whither Sammy?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Shouldn’t this shit’ve been announced by now?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I think it gets announced on the 8th
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Seems a little late this year.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
This is Morris’ final year, and I guess they’re going to foist his case onto the Veterans Committee.
Sammy Sosa is under 10% last I checked. He’ll probably stay on the ballot but I doubt he ever makes it into the HOF anyway.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Ryno what do you think Redskins should do. I have no idea, but I hope they try to get an offensive guru in there.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
Yeah. What I posted on HOF was only those players who had enough votes right now to move on next year–except Morris. I forgot he was on year 15. Doesn’t mean others like Sammy won’t pass to next year. Just that they don’t have the votes yet.
My guess is that those above the line all get in. Biggio will because he’ll get votes from enough people that think “first ballot HOF” is different.
SVBQuote Reply
5% to stay on the ballot so there’s almost no way Sammy isn’t on additional ballots. I think he eventually gets in, but this year I think it’s difficult to vote for him simply because there are so many better players on the ballot.
dmick89Quote Reply
Oh, I didn’t think Sammy had a hope in hell this decade. For some reason I thought SVB’s numbers were showing he wouldn’t make the 5% to stay on the ballot.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
I expect Sosa will make it to next year. There was some concern a month ago +/- that some guys like Mussina or Schilling might not make the 5%. Not sure why, I guess because the ballot is so stacked.
It’ll be interesting to see how the numbers change from the 1st 20% announced to the final. Do the early voters fill their ballot more? Seems they are averaging >8/ballot, from what I’ve seen.
SVBQuote Reply
From Paul Sullivan’s comments on his HOF ballot in today’s trib.
If four get elected (Maddux, Glavine, Thomas, Biggio) is that a game changer? I doubt it. It’ll be loaded with newcomers again next year, but in 2016 Griffey and Trevor Hoffman are the only headliners. I bet nothing changes and they let things run their course.
SVBQuote Reply
I doubt shit gets changed. It should, but this is the BBWAA we’re talking about.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
exactly
SVBQuote Reply
@MinorLeagueBall
As awesome as Baez is, he does not have the polish Sheffield did. The comp works in terms of bat speed but not approach/feel for hitting
Sickels on Baez
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Like You Care wrote:
Bortles sounds like he’s declaring to enter the draft tomorrow
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
With Winston, Mariota, Petty and Hundley at the top of next year’s draft, that’s a wise choice. With O’Brien in charge at HOU, he’s in play for first overall (despite the fact that Bridgewater is the no-brainer top QB, imo).
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
With that ownership, who knows? The best way to achieve sustainable success in the NFL is through the offense. The scheme, that is. Chip Kelly built his defense last off-season because he was confident in his ability to basically scheme his way to 21 points on offense.
Honestly, I’m not even sure which coaches are available this off-season. Of the coaches I do know, though, they’d be wise to consider SF OC Greg Roman. He has his faults for sure, but he can put together an offensive game plan that would benefit RG3. He doesn’t run as much stretch zone as WAS, though.
I know it might sound crazy, but I’d consider Art Briles first. What he does at Baylor would absolutely translate to the NFL.
Like You CareQuote Reply
We are all witness to the Chargers.
That’s all.
MylesQuote Reply
Re: SF/GB game
I was certain SF was going to lose that game. They didn’t cash in on their redzone opportunities and GB played a nearly flawless game (except for their gameplan).
Apparently the refs didn’t want to prolong the game by calling penalties, though. I didn’t get to watch the whole game (so I might have missed SF benefiting from a call), but these three stood out to me.
http://youtu.be/aNf7YN_9KNE?t=29s
Minor PI, but it’s usually called. That didn’t bug me as much as…
http://youtu.be/aNf7YN_9KNE?t=38s
That’s bullshit. The penalties pissed me off, but they could have been avoided with better play calling. 1st and Goal from inside the five and no run plays?
In the video, Marshall Faulk says they called it both ways. Oh really?
http://youtu.be/aNf7YN_9KNE?t=2m16s
For the second consecutive week, Evan Dietrich-Smith gets away with an egregious hold on fourth down.
[img]http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-pXXelZw4Wh4/UsnzBEqtE-I/AAAAAAAAA7c/R75riMhiT7c/s400/a1.gif[/img]
Pitiful. In that position, all he can do is hold. If he doesn’t hold, Rodgers is sacked and they punt. Same as last week. If he doesn’t hold, Wootton gets to him and the game is over. The refs need to call that, though.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
I remember a no-call on a SF not long after that second PI non-call you mentioned above (maybe on the next series?). That was about it though. I guess it was so cold the refs didn’t want to take their hands out of their pockets (dying laughing).
I wished the Packers had thrown it a bit more, but no major complaints here. A great game, SF was the better team.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Like You Care:
FWIW on that Wooton play, Jordy Nelson was obliterated by one of the DBs so at the very least there should have been a replay of the down… at which point CHI probably would have won anyway.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I’d love it if the Packers picked up a new center this offseason. I’ve never been a big fan of EDS.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Exactly what I was thinking.
I thought the teams matched up well and figured it would be a close game. Neither team played to their potential, I assume because of the weather. I mean, SF punted from the GB 33.
Like You CareQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, there’s a reason he keeps having to hold guys from behind.
Like You CareQuote Reply
New shit http://obstructedview.net/tv/obstructed-view-2013-tv-non-awards-part-2-the-desolation-of-smaug.html
dmick89Quote Reply
How was that last field goal not blocked? And then it looked like it was going to hit the goal post. I was going to be so mad SF didn’t win that game.
WaLiQuote Reply