I thought I would put together some charts to illustrate Javier Baez's progression throughout the minors.
Shown are strikeouts (red) and walks (blue) as a fraction of cumulative plate appearances. Separate trend lines indicate changes in seasons or levels. I have omitted the first couple of data points in each series for the purposes of prettification.
Baez's strikeout and walk rates have to be viewed through the lens of his prodigious power. He's obviously going for broke, and thus some strikeouts are to be expected. It would be helpful if he could limit them to the 25% range, as he was able to do in Peoria and Daytona. Likewise, It would be nice to see walks in the 11-12% range, as pitchers avoid his comfort zone, but at least the trends are promising.
As Cub fans, we are all intimately familiar with theories of player development for prospects with (ahem…) questionable plate approaches. Of these, one that is often repeated is what I think of as the "Forced Exposure Theory," which holds that for a prospect who is hitting really well in spite of his approach, the correct move is to promote him to a higher level. At the more advanced level, the player will no longer be able to dominate and as a result will be driven to make adjustments to his approach. This hasn't really happened with Baez, who has abused Southern League pitching. Fortunately, his walk rate has improved somewhat anyways.
And about that power (as measured by isolated slugging percentage)….
It's simply been ridiculous this year, and throughout his career, really.
One thing I noticed in going through Baez's game logs is that he has yet to be hit by a pitch in AA. Getting hit has been a pretty valuable part of his game thus far, he was hit 12 times in 2012 and 11 times in the FSL this year. The lack of HBP's in Tennessee is something to keep an eye on, as it could be part of a change in approach, a different level of pitching, or just a fluke. Players like Chase Utley and Carlos Quentin have added a lot of career value by taking pitches for the team, and it could be an asset to Baez, particularly if his walk rate remains low.
Comments
Nice graphs. also interesting he hadn’t been hit by a pitch in the SL. I’m surprised I hadn’t noticed that as it’s usually something I look at for him.
dmick89Quote Reply
http://nautil.us/issue/4/the-unlikely/explaining-the-unexplainable
Could someone explain to me how one goes from “I just had a good game” to “I had a good game so I’m going to put a penny in my jock.”?
At what point did this even become a thing? Why?
I can usually figure out how a superstition may have started. This one? I’m clueless. I’ve got nothing.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
(dying laughing)
GWQuote Reply
@ GW:
I’m confused. Did he rarely have good games? Because if he did, how do you just keep adding pennies? At some point there’d be too many, right?
Odd.
dmick89Quote Reply
Anna Gunn op-ed NYT (Breaking Bad for those who don’t know):
That’s just fucking crazy.
At times I think the Skyler character has been the least well written character on the show. I think that was true the first season and maybe the second, but IMO it’s improved significantly since. Besdies, Anna Gunn has been fantastic throughout.
dmick89Quote Reply
These graphs are cool. Do you have enough of a sample to do them with some other guys, like Alcantara?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I can see how people could get annoyed by her character–she nags a lot, and could be pretty annoying early in the show’s run. I don’t see why anyone would want take out their frustrations on the actor who played her, though.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I don’t think they did a great job with the character early on, but I think that was fixed by season 3. Maybe earlier.
dmick89Quote Reply
CJ Edwards is as thin as paper.
dmick89Quote Reply
Nice pieces on the pregame about Daytona and Tennessee.
dmick89Quote Reply
Almost as frightening as the Anna Gunn link above is the reaction from people about Ben Afflec playing Batman. Holy fucking shit, people need to get a grip.
dmick89Quote Reply
Watching that double play that the cubs just turned got me thinking. With the new video challenge thing, can managers challenge when the umpire uses the imaginary “vicinity rule” on double plays, because on a lot of double plays the 2b or SS never touches second at all, but no one really cares. I wonder if managers would still not challenge it because they know they dont want their players getting slid into all the time.
AndrewQuote Reply
@ Andrew:
I think you could challenge it, but I think it happens because of the reason you point out. Doubt any non-obvious challenges on a play like that will happen.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
sure
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Ya I agree if anyone did challenge it theyd look like the asshole that reminds the teacher there was homework due that day.
AndrewQuote Reply
i’m completely dreading replay in baseball
GWQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
I thought we were all cool with Affleck after Argo.
berselius is too lazy to log inQuote Reply
@ berselius is too lazy to log in:
Between that, The Town and Gone Baby Gone, I can’t understand the backlash. Even if his last movie was Gigli, the outrage is comical. A White House petition? Get a fucking life!
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Seems to me that Affleck’s only good movies are the ones he directs himself.
Having said that, I couldn’t give two shits.
GBTSQuote Reply
GW wrote:
I have no idea why sports continue to utilize this “coach’s challenge” bullshit. It’s been so bad in the NFL that at thus point I’d rather have no replay than their current system. It’s fucking horrendous.
GBTSQuote Reply
http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cashner-im-looking-shove-it-cubs
If a team tried to sabotage my career the way the old FO did with Cashner, I’d want to shove stuff up their ass too.
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS, your modeling career has really taken off!
https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc3/1170821_570410819685986_1287421630_n.jpg
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Vogelbach’s power has increased too after going to the FSL
I mean, you can’t really analyze 40 PA’s but it’s at a minimum encouraging.
2883Quote Reply
@ GBTS:
How did they try to do that?
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I’m not sure how many teams saw Cashner as a starting pitcher when the Cubs called him up in 2010 to use him out of the bullpen. IIRC, he’d had as many problems going deep into games as CJ Edwards. The current front office didn’t see him as a starter either so they traded him for Rizzo.
dmick89Quote Reply
Here’s your reminder that Cashner only pitched 69.2 innings (majors and minors) last year and has a 93 ERA+ as a starter this year, and a 16.3% K rate. He could end up being ok, but he’s been pretty forgettable this year.
MylesQuote Reply
Oh, and a 4.13 SIERA this year
MylesQuote Reply
Cashner has had a really good walk rate this year and has kept the home runs down for a change. He’s still not what I’d call a good pitcher by any means and I would hope no Cubs fan is wishing the Cubs had just kept Cashner. They’re better off with Rizzo, but I still hope Cashner works out for the Padres.
I just don’t think the Cubs did anything wrong with Cashner. I think most teams would have drafted him as a reliever (he was a closer in college) and kept him in the bullpen. If anything, I think the past front office did him a favor by giving him a shot in the rotation. The current front office did him another favor by sending him to a team that would like to try him as a starter.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Myles:
yep. velo is down a bit this year, which is probably a smart move on his part, but he hasn’t looked like a top of the rotation type yet.
@ dmick89:
not to mention sending him to the best pitching environment in the league.
GWQuote Reply
Let’s go Cubs!
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I thought it was pretty well documented here that the Cubs waffled Cashner back and forth between the pen and the rotation to the detriment of his development. I personally remember flipping a shit when this happened:
http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2010/05/26/cashner-quickest-route-to-the-majors-might-be-the-pen
You know, so he could pitch the eighth inning for that 75-win 2010 Cubs team.
GBTSQuote Reply
(dying laughing) Ah yes, the birth of the old “Bullpen Test” meme.
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
and the NFL has gotten to the point that I now think that whatever my opinion is on catch/no catches, the ruling will be the opposite of that, based on their arcane definitions. i despise the fact that it effectively provides another timeout for teams driving down the field at the end of games from time to time. and of course it means more commercial breaks. if i decide to watch an NFL game by myself these days, i usually record it and watch something else for about two hours before starting. even then, it’s about 50/50 whether i’m caught up by the time the game ends.
GWQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
There wasn’t any back and forth. That’s the point. And it’s not as though his career was jeopardized or that the past front office was alone in thinking he was a reliever.
Cashner is just like any traded player who wants to show up his old team. Looking back in this I don’t see a problem with how he was handled.
dmick89Quote Reply
Sorry, posted this in the wrong thread at first. I’m travelling all day and won’t be able to get the JOT up until late tonight. Just a heads up.
sitrickQuote Reply
I’m sorry you didn’t enjoy your experience at Applebee’s, MB.
[img]http://24.media.tumblr.com/f4a29a013e3b4de8b38dddceb5c3b4b3/tumblr_mga9xwBMLC1rtxouco1_500.png[/img]
Aisle424Quote Reply
Ronnie Cedeno is a bad motherfucker. Aint nobody can keep up with that guy. I wonder if he even bothers to rent apartments in the cities he breezes through. Probably easier to live in hotels.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Cy Rusin gets yanked with one out in 7th, having given up 0 runs.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Roger Cashner also came out of the game having surrendered zilch
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Rather than conclude I am the only loser watching this game, I’m going to assume there is another thread and someone forgot to say new shit.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Stupid Cubs couldn’t score with a $1 hooker.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
Nope. Too lazy and this game is boring. (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
$1 hooker? I gotta move to Chicago.
dmick89Quote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Len and JD are agree with you.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
It’s not all bad. The Cubs got a hit in the 11th. They now have 3.
dmick89Quote Reply
(dying laughing) Cubs.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
i hate to say it, but you guys should be watching
GWQuote Reply
This is the perfect game for people who think baseball games are too short.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ GW:
Yeah, fortunately, it’s Sunday night, so it’s not like there’s anything good on TV.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Attack of the Cubes (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
berselius is too lazy to log inQuote Reply
Who will save it for the Cubs if they get another lead?
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
Junior Lake
berselius is too lazy to log inQuote Reply
The Padres had the winning run on third with less than 2 outs, but they had to use a pitcher to pinch-hit.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
at least they didn’t intentionally walk stults. that would have been a lowlight
GWQuote Reply
I went to the ER at the start of the game to figure out what was up with my persistent cough. Went to Walgreens to pick up my meds right as the Cubes were fucking up their last best scoring chance, and drove home just in time to listen to the walk-off hit. Only the Cubes.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ GW:
I watched a lot of the game today. I didn’t watch the later innings of the 9-inning game, but turned it on at the end of the 9th and laughed. Then I laughed a lot more as I watched the rest.
dmick89Quote Reply
Breaking Bad aside auto-published at 9 pm: http://obstructedview.net/other-topics/breaking-bad-confessions.html
dmick89Quote Reply
New (Late) Shit: http://obstructedview.net/minor-leagues/jot-cubs-minor-league-recap-8-24-13.html
sitrickQuote Reply