Cubs @ Brewers

In Game Threads by Obstructed View Staff186 Comments

Cubs wOBA wRC RS Brewers wOBA wRC RS
Jeff Baker .312 .467 -0.13 Rickie Weeks .349 .621 -0.02
Starlin Castro .332 .536 -0.03 Nyjer Morgan .305 .427 0.04
Marlon Byrd .338 .556 -0.01 Ryan Braun .378 .713 -0.07
Aramis Ramirez .350 .586 -0.03 Prince Fielder .404 .795 -0.03
Geovany Soto .362 .616 -0.01 Casey McGehee .331 .499 -0.02
Carlos Pena .378 .657 -0.01 Yuniesky Betancourt .309 .405 -0.05
Alfonso Soriano .339 .500 0.00 Mark Kotsay .304 .377 -0.08
Reed Johnson .300 .355 -0.09 Wil Nieves .270 .250 -0.04
Matt Garza .175 .000 0.00 Chris Narveson .175 .000 0.00
4.3 -.3 4.1 -0.26

Starting Pitcher IP/GS FIP
Matt Garza 6.30 4.38
Chris Narveson 6.62 4.62
Bullpens xFIP
Cubs 3.32
Brewers 4.5

Projected runs (neutral park): 5.2 Cubs, 4.5 Brewers

Win Probability (home field advantage adjusted): 52.6%

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Comments

  1. Mercurial Outfielder

    Reed Johnson might be the only person in that lineup that should be hitting below Byrd.

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  2. GW

    Re: Silva

    the back end of that yanks rotation is a mess. unless it’s 2001, you don’t want freddy garcia and bartolo colon battling for a rotation spot, with kevin millwood and carlos silva as lurking contenders.

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  3. mb21

    You have to play the backups from time to time. If the Cubs play Reed Johnson once every 9 games I’ll be pretty happy.

    I actually don’t mind the lineups as much as some of you. I think Byrd makes perfect sense in that 3-spot. I figure it’s 3rd or 6th for him and I know there aren’t 5 better hitters vs a lefty and there probably aren’t 5 better vs a righty either.

    If there’s one thing that Quade has done so far this season that has stood out to me it’s that he’s written good lineups. Just my 2 cents.

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  4. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=GW]unless it’s 2001, you don’t want freddy garcia and bartolo colon battling for a rotation spot, with kevin millwood and carlos silva as lurking contenders.[/quote]Or unless you’re trying to win the hot dog eating contest at Nathan’s.

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  5. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]You have to play the backups from time to time. If the Cubs play Reed Johnson once every 9 games I’ll be pretty happy.

    I actually don’t mind the lineups as much as some of you. I think Byrd makes perfect sense in that 3-spot. I figure it’s 3rd or 6th for him and I know there aren’t 5 better hitters vs a lefty and there probably aren’t 5 better vs a righty either.

    If there’s one thing that Quade has done so far this season that has stood out to me it’s that he’s written good lineups. Just my 2 cents.[/quote]I just think if you’re splitting time in RF between Colvin and Fukudome, then there’s no need for Captain Ill-Advised Facial Hair to get a start this early in the year. I don’t mind Byrd there, per se, but his hacktastic approach shouldn’t be garnering him that spot.

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  6. melissa

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]If you’re an NL team, and your RF is hitting 8th, you’re doing it wrong.[/quote]
    It’s a way of [L]ife

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  7. Bubba Biscuit

    [quote name=AndCounting]BB, I think the point is still worth noting that the negative impact of the perceived laziness, even over the course of several years, is minimal. Even if everyone’s perceptions of Aramis and Soriano were correct, the net effect would still be laughably insignificant.

    So why get so upset? Because it feels good to blame someone. Not just for the Cubs’ failures, but for everything wrong with the world today. Ramirez is just a microcosm.[/quote]
    I am not upset, I was taking the view of the common fan for that middle bit. I was happy ARam was on base when he shouldn’t have been.

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  8. melissa

    [quote name=mb21]

    If there’s one thing that Quade has done so far this season that has stood out to me it’s that he’s written good lineups. Just my 2 cents.[/quote]
    Like Darwin Barney batting 2nd? (dying laughing)

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  9. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=melissa]Like Darwin Barney batting 2nd? (dying laughing)[/quote]Darwin Barney has a big bat and will hit a lot of home runs for this team.

    /Brenly’d

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  10. Bubba Biscuit

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Darwin Barney has a big bat and will hit a lot of home runs for this team.

    /Brenly’d[/quote]
    It just might work.

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  11. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=Bubba Biscuit]^ A game used jersey most of America could actually wear.[/quote]The last time I saw something that big and white, there was a movie playing on it.

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  12. Bubba Biscuit

    If they made a snuggie made out of that sham-wow stuff for him, they wouldn’t need a tarp and field crew.

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  13. melissa

    Did the Yankees sponsor a tryout for America’s Biggest Loser and accidentally make the winner one of their pitchers?

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  14. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=melissa]If Colon doesn’t have a heart attack soon it will be a miracle.[/quote]No kidding. The shadow of his ass weighs 20 lbs.

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  15. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=melissa]Did the Yankees sponsor a tryout for America’s Biggest Loser and accidentally make the winner one of their pitchers?[/quote]We’ll have to forward that question to the Assistant to the Traveling Secretary.

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  16. melissa

    If they were sponsoring tryouts for America’s Biggest Loser it would explain them bringing in the fail whale as well. I will say in his defense that Colon makes the fail whale look svelte.

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  17. melissa

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]We’ll have to forward that question to the Assistant to the Traveling Secretary.[/quote]
    Is that like someone who assists the Traveling Secretary?

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  18. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=melissa]If they were sponsoring tryouts for America’s Biggest Loser it would explain them bringing in the fail whale as well. I will say in his defense that Colon makes the fail whale look svelte.[/quote]Colon makes planetoids look svelte.

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  19. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=melissa]Is that like someone who assists the Traveling Secretary?[/quote]Correct.

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  20. mb21

    From Adam in the last thread:

    So why get so upset? Because it feels good to blame someone. Not just for the Cubs’ failures, but for everything wrong with the world today. Ramirez is just a microcosm.

    Exactly! It’s all about blame. It’s all about belittling someone. It’s all about making people feel better about themselves.

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  21. melissa

    Hah. Lazy Latin gets to first on dropped 3rd strike.

    edit/ it was a never caught 3rd strike to be more accurate.

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  22. Aisle424

    [quote name=ZappBrannigan](dying laughing)

    There’s some hustle from Aramis[/quote]
    He should have made it to second.

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  23. Bubba Biscuit

    [quote name=Aisle424]He should have made it to second.[/quote]
    There he goes striking out again and still only ending up on first base, is he even trying?

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  24. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I just think if you’re splitting time in RF between Colvin and Fukudome, then there’s no need for Captain Ill-Advised Facial Hair to get a start this early in the year. I don’t mind Byrd there, per se, but his hacktastic approach shouldn’t be garnering him that spot.[/quote]
    The 4th spot is the most important one in the lineup followed very closely by the number 2 hitter. Best two hitters should hit in those two spots. The 3rd best hitter goes in the leadoff spot while the 4th best goes in the 5th spot. That leaves the 5th best in the 3rd spot. This is based on The Book and not based on what managers are likely to do. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

    Below is the top 5 vs lefties

    Geovany Soto 0.382
    Aramis Ramirez 0.37
    Alfonso Soriano 0.353
    Marlon Byrd 0.348
    Starlin Castro 0.344

    Vs righties:

    Carlos Pena 0.374
    Geovany Soto 0.355
    Jason Dubois 0.35
    Aramis Ramirez 0.347
    Kosuke Fukudome 0.347
    Bryan LaHair 0.342
    Tyler Colvin 0.335
    Alfonso Soriano 0.333
    Marlon Byrd 0.33

    Dubois and LaHair are out. Soriano and Byrd are even and only 2 points of wOBA behind Colvin for 5th best. Byrd’s projection is undoubtedly more reliable than Colvin’s.

    Those are the average projections. Some projection systems have Byrd 4th or 5th best vs righties. Some have him 6th best.

    Based on the research from The Book, Marlon Byrd should be hitting 3rd vs lefties and and it’s a toss up between Byrd, Soriano and Colvin for that spot vs righties. Right below them is Bobby Scales so he could actually be included in this toss up group too, but his projections are even less reliable than Colvin’s.

    I figure arguments could be made that any one of Tyler Colvin, Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd or Bobby Scales should be hitting 3rd vs righties and I’m pretty sure none of us want Bobby Scales there. I think we also all agree that Tyler Colvin shouldn’t be there so it’s between Byrd and Soriano and each have a projected .333 wOBA vs righties. Byrd is more consistent so I’d go with Byrd in that spot. Soriano is one of those guys that when he’s going right he can easily be the 4th hitter and when things are going bad he’s a number 9 hitter. I wouldn’t want a guy like that in the 3rd spot or even in the top 5 to be honest. Not vs righties anyway.

    I think it’s a good decision by Quade even if he reached the decision the wrong way.

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  25. melissa

    [quote name=GW]has fuld’s catch from earlier today come up yet?[/quote]
    I was watching the game when it happened, it was Reed Johnsonesque

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  26. mb21

    [quote name=GW]http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_09_tbamlb_chamlb_1&mode=video[/quote]Wow. I hadn’t seen it. That’s unbelievable.

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  27. GW

    [quote name=melissa]I was watching the game when it happened, it was Reed Johnsonesque[/quote]
    covered a lot of ground on that one.

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  28. Suburban kid

    [quote name=GW]http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_09_tbamlb_chamlb_1&mode=video[/quote]Cool.

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  29. Mercurial Outfielder

    Is Garza actually pitching, or is there a batting tee set up with “Matt Garza” written on it?

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  30. melissa

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Is Garza actually pitching, or is there a batting tee set up with “Matt Garza” written on it?[/quote]
    Weeks smashed one off his foot. Braun and Fielder hit the ball hard but they weren’t able to elevate the ball. He’s not fooling people but the ball’s not flying out of the park yet either.

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  31. melissa

    It’s seems to me that “it just might work” is just the Alvinification of “let’s see what happens.”

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  32. AndCounting

    [quote name=Bubba Biscuit]I am not upset, I was taking the view of the common fan for that middle bit. I was happy ARam was on base when he shouldn’t have been.[/quote]Just so you know, I didn’t think you were. I was answering the common fan. Which is probably my own fallacy, but whatever. (dying laughing)

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  33. mb21

    Matt Garza is throwing BP tonight. He’s lucky so many balls have been hit right at the Cubs or this would be a 10-run game by now. Matt Garza is not good at baseball. The Rays knew what they were getting rid of and it wasn’t anything special.

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  34. AndCounting

    [quote name=Rice Cube]Sounds like Soto killed a glove to get a squeaker hit.[/quote]They were playing the shift against him and it was still out of Weeks’ reach.

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  35. mb21

    Has the new pitcher smell worn off for Cubs fans yet? I’m betting it will happen soon if it hasn’t happened already.

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  36. mb21

    Seeing Luis Montanez in a Cubs minor league lineup reminds me of when he was going to be a superstar back in 2001 and 2002.

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  37. mb21

    [quote name=ZappBrannigan]Pena 5 LOB already tonight. How long before Cubs fans turn on him?[/quote]I was wondering the same thing last night. That batting average is going to scream at the fans come midsummer.

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  38. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=mb21]Matt Garza is throwing BP tonight. He’s lucky so many balls have been hit right at the Cubs or this would be a 10-run game by now. Matt Garza is not good at baseball. The Rays knew what they were getting rid of and it wasn’t anything special.[/quote]It certainly looks that way right now.

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  39. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=ZappBrannigan]Pena 5 LOB already tonight. How long before Cubs fans turn on him?[/quote]Next homestand.

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  40. bubblesdachimp

    Trade your best prospect for an overrated pitcher….

    Lets see What Happens…

    Brett jakcson is killing it in AA right now.. I think we will see him by mid to late may.

    Also i really think we should start paying attention to Matthew Spencer jsut a hunch

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  41. melissa

    Len and Bob were talking about a 20 pitch at bat and Cakes said, “There are some Cubs hitters that don’t see 20 pitches in a series.” The claws have come out.

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  42. bubblesdachimp

    [quote name=mb21]When does Trey McNutt pitch? Why hasn’t he pitched already? Injury?[/quote]
    He was supposed to go tonight… Maybe tomorrow?

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  43. bubblesdachimp

    Also mildly infuriating that Vitters isnt playing 3B every night..

    Tonight he isnt starting and last night he was playing first…

    What the fuck?

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  44. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=melissa]Len and Bob were talking about a 20 pitch at bat and Cakes said, “There are some Cubs hitters that don’t see 20 pitches in a series.” The claws have come out.[/quote]If there’s one guy that knows about patience, it’s the guy who walked 318 times in 2995 career PA.

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  45. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Also mildly infuriating that Vitters isnt playing 3B every night..

    Tonight he isnt starting and last night he was playing first…

    What the fuck?[/quote]I think there are serious concerns about his defense, and the Cubs might want him to focus on his hitting, so they move him off a more difficult defensive position to let him relax and key in on becoming a better hitter.

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  46. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=AndCounting]The strike zone is pretty big tonight.[/quote]Up and down, yeah, according to Gameday. Lots of low strikes being called.

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  47. mb21

    Starlin Castro is struggling a bit now. I’m rather disappointed in him he couldn’t maintain a .500 batting average. It’s not that hard to succeed one in every two tries.

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  48. AndCounting

    [quote name=mb21]Starlin Castro is struggling a bit now. I’m rather disappointed in him he couldn’t maintain a .500 batting average. It’s not that hard to succeed one in every two tries.[/quote]Small sample size. He’ll be back up over .500 by next week.

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  49. mb21

    Schroeder was just talking about how big Castro is when you get down onto the field and see him take some swings in the cage. He said when you see him on TV he doesn’t look that big, but when you see him up close he’s quite big.

    Interesting.

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  50. mb21

    [quote name=AndCounting]Small sample size. He’ll be back up over .500 by next week.[/quote]That’s good because I was going to get upset we traded Theriot. I mean, if he can’t maintain a .500 average, what the fuck?

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  51. bubblesdachimp

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I think there are serious concerns about his defense, and the Cubs might want him to focus on his hitting, so they move him off a more difficult defensive position to let him relax and key in on becoming a better hitter.[/quote]
    I thought he was doing a lot better at 3B and was definitely passable.. I mean i know he isnt Matt Dominguez but i didnt think he was the Jesus Montero of 3B

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  52. mb21

    I figure the scouting reports regarding Vitters defense range from poor to OK so I don’t mind what the Smokies are doing. The issues I have is when the scouting reports say one thing and the Cubs do the other (see Jackson, Brett).

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  53. mb21

    [quote name=ZappBrannigan]Byrd without a walk this year still[/quote]Didn’t he got a long time without one last year too?

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  54. AndCounting

    [quote name=mb21]Schroeder was just talking about how big Castro is when you get down onto the field and see him take some swings in the cage. He said when you see him on TV he doesn’t look that big, but when you see him up close he’s quite big.

    Interesting.[/quote]I can definitely see him growing into A-Rod type size. I’m not saying that kind of power, but I can see him becoming that big or close to it.

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  55. mb21

    [quote name=AndCounting]I can definitely see him growing into A-Rod type size. I’m not saying that kind of power, but I can see him becoming that big or close to it.[/quote]I could see it too. If he gets close to that big, he’ll be moved to 3rd base.

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  56. bubblesdachimp

    So have we decided what type of contract Grimamce would be worth next year and if he is worth more than pujols if its significantly less years and $$

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  57. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]Didn’t he got a long time without one last year too?[/quote]
    I think he had an abnormal number of HBP, which was the same as his walk total and thus made his OBP higher than it otherwise would’ve been.

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  58. bubblesdachimp

    See the first thing i said when watching Castro in Spring training this year was how much bigger he looked. The kid is definitiely going to develop power if there is enough elverage in his swing. I am thinking 20 HR a year power

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  59. mb21

    Remember when I said that I think Garza beats his projections? I take it back. I know it’s a small sample and blah blah blah, but he’s just not that good.

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  60. mb21

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]So have we decided what type of contract Grimamce would be worth next year and if he is worth more than pujols if its significantly less years and $$[/quote]Who is that?

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  61. Mercurial Outfielder

    [quote name=GW]that and pixiant in his batting gloves[/quote]The combination of elverage and pixiant in his swing would lead to eleventy homers per annum.

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  62. mb21

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Well Grimmace is going to get to eat dinner tonight… He is fucking killing it[/quote]Fielder?

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  63. Rice Cube

    [quote name=bubblesdachimp]Well Grimmace is going to get to eat dinner tonight… He is fucking killing it[/quote]
    I think he eats dinner in the dugout in between innings.

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  64. mb21

    There’s no way Fielder is worth more, but is he a better player to sign? I don’t know. I’d rather they sign Fielder, but I won’t be the least bit upset if they sign the best player in baseball either.

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  65. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]I think he eats dinner in the dugout in between innings.[/quote]And a between inning snack while on the field.

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  66. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]And a between inning snack while on the field.[/quote]
    He has a mini-bar hidden under first base.

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  67. bubblesdachimp

    [quote name=mb21]There’s no way Fielder is worth more, but is he a better player to sign? I don’t know. I’d rather they sign Fielder, but I won’t be the least bit upset if they sign the best player in baseball either.[/quote]I just have a feeling that Fielder would absolutely murder the baseball for 4/5 of the cost and 70% of the years. Having said that they are both awesome

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  68. mb21

    [quote name=Rice Cube]He has a mini-bar hidden under first base.[/quote]I’d love to see Fielder eating a candy bar out there. I could see Manny Ramirez doing something like that. That would be hilarious.

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  69. mb21

    [quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]87 pitches through 5 for Garza.[/quote]Sadly, that’s far better than Zambrano last night who had thrown 1786 pitches through 5 innings. (dying laughing)

    Z and Garza are both going to collect very high pitch counts and force the bullpen to work. Add in whoever ends up being the 5th starter and a lot of pressure is on Dempster and Wells to go deep into games.

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  70. Rice Cube

    [quote name=mb21]Sadly, that’s far better than Zambrano last night who had thrown 1786 pitches through 5 innings. (dying laughing)

    Z and Garza are both going to collect very high pitch counts and force the bullpen to work. Add in whoever ends up being the 5th starter and a lot of pressure is on Dempster and Wells to go deep into games.[/quote]
    *tear*

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  71. mb21

    Boston and Tampa Bay 1-7 after their losses tonight. I’m enjoying Boston’s pathetic record. I hope the Orioles keep getting lucky and we see a Yankees/O’s battle for first.

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  72. GW

    [quote name=Rice Cube]http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/extension-candidate-starlin-castro.html

    Would you, could you?[/quote]
    I’m a little broke right now, Tom. Ask mb21.

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  73. mb21

    [quote name=GW]periphs are great for garza again tonight[/quote]Aside from getting hit harder than shit, I’d hope so.

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  74. mb21

    I wouldn’t sign Castro to an extension yet. The earliest I’d even consider it would be after this season and it would take a great season from Castro for me to think signing him long-term would make sense.

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  75. bubblesdachimp

    [quote name=Rice Cube]http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/extension-candidate-starlin-castro.html

    Would you, could you?[/quote]
    i iam down.. i would wait till arb though

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  76. Aisle424

    How about “I brought my own baloney sandwich and scorebook and I’m a big stupid moron with a big butt and I like to smell my own butt”?

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  77. GW

    [quote name=mb21]Aside from getting hit harder than shit, I’d hope so.[/quote]
    8K and 3BB in what, 28 PA? pretty good.

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  78. melissa

    [quote name=GW]8K and 3BB in what, 28 PA? pretty good.[/quote]
    You aren’t going to walk many when the ball is getting smoked.

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  79. mb21

    [quote name=Aisle424]How about “I brought my own baloney sandwich and scorebook and I’m a big stupid moron with a big butt and I like to smell my own butt”?[/quote]Can you put stuff on the back of shirts?

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  80. GW

    [quote name=melissa]You aren’t going to walk many when the ball is getting smoked.[/quote]
    you can go ahead and have a twitter debate with colin about a pitcher’s ability to induce weak contact. i’ll just hang back and watch, (dying laughing)

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  81. mb21

    [quote name=melissa]You aren’t going to walk many when the ball is getting smoked.[/quote]Yeah, 4 doubles and a triple tonight and of the other hits allowed, they were all hit hard. Several hard hit outs right at fielders too. Garza was lucky to only allow 5 runs.

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  82. mb21

    [quote name=melissa]That’s super creepy on a clock. (dying laughing)[/quote]I plan to put one in my daughter’s room. (dying laughing)

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  83. melissa

    [quote name=mb21]I plan to put one in my daughter’s room. (dying laughing)[/quote]
    That’s a great idea, you really are a thoughtful and concerned parent. It just might work.

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  84. mb21

    [quote name=melissa]That’s a great idea, you really are a thoughtful and concerned parent. It just might work.[/quote]That’s what we were thinking. We sometimes put 6 or 8 brown recluses in the son’s room when he goes to bed. The first time he got bit he cried all night and now he’s learned to keep quiet about it. Be a man is what we always tell him. Builds character.

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  85. melissa

    [quote name=mb21]Concussion is what I’m worried about.[/quote]
    Exactly. No reason to leave him in the game. It’s a way of [L]ife

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  86. melissa

    [quote name=mb21]I’d assumed he passed whatever tests and probably comes out after this inning.[/quote]
    I didn’t see any tests being performed.

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  87. Rice Cube

    [quote name=melissa]I didn’t see any tests being performed.[/quote]
    It was the tried-and-true “You okay?” test.

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  88. Aisle424

    [quote name=mb21]I’d love it if people showed up the left field bleachers wearing those.[/quote]
    That’s the dream.

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  89. Urk

    [quote name=mb21]Good idea, Tim

    [/quote]

    I know that “it Just might work” is the new “let’s see what happens” but I think that “let’s see what happens” is actually better there. Better rhythm and the echo of “it’s gonna happen” reaches a wider audience than the in-joke about Al.

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  90. Aisle424

    [quote name=Urk]I know that “it Just might work” is the new “let’s see what happens” but I think that “let’s see what happens” is actually better there. Better rhythm and the echo of “it’s gonna happen” reaches a wider audience than the in-joke about Al.[/quote]
    We have a wider audience?

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  91. mb21

    (dying laughing) someone really needs to see how many times that word has been said on BCB. It’s quoted here about every single day.

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  92. Suburban kid

    [quote name=mb21](dying laughing) someone really needs to see how many times that word has been said on BCB. [/quote]Don’t tell me what to do.

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  93. Suburban kid

    (dying laughing)

    Snark has been said on BCB surprisingly few times — only 240.

    At the rate it is said here, we will pass BCB before OVBlog has even existed for 6 weeks.

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