Time: 7:05 pm CT
Gameday
| Cubs | wOBA | wRC | RS | Astros | wOBA | wRC | RS | |
| Starlin Castro | .332 | .557 | -0.13 | Michael Bourn | .307 | .451 | 0.03 | |
| Darwin Barney | .293 | .386 | 0.03 | Angel Sanchez | .287 | .363 | -0.07 | |
| Marlon Byrd | .338 | .561 | -0.01 | Hunter Pence | .342 | .574 | -0.01 | |
| Aramis Ramirez | .350 | .591 | -0.03 | Carlos Lee | .338 | .546 | -0.05 | |
| Carlos Pena | .378 | .680 | -0.01 | Brett Wallace | .326 | .484 | 0.03 | |
| Alfonso Soriano | .339 | .518 | -0.10 | Chris Johnson | .319 | .445 | -0.05 | |
| Tyler Colvin | .318 | .430 | 0.00 | Joe Inglett | .301 | .372 | -0.06 | |
| Geovany Soto | .362 | .577 | -0.01 | Humberto Quintero | .272 | .262 | -0.01 | |
| Ryan Dempster | .175 | .000 | 0.00 | Nelson Figueroa | .175 | .000 | 0.00 | |
| 4.3 | -.25 | 3.5 | -0.19 |
| Starting Pitcher | IP/GS | FIP |
| Ryan Dempster | 6.23 | 3.95 |
| Nelson Figueroa | 7.33 | 4.31 |
| Bullpens | xFIP | |
| Cubs | 3.7 | |
| Astros | 5.4 | |
Score: Cubs 5, Astros 3.6
Win Probability: 60.7%
This team sucks.
[quote name=GBTS]This team sucks.[/quote]
This statement is correct for either team involved.
[quote name=GBTS]This team sucks.[/quote]Spoken presumably with a disgusted, descending emphasis, i.e., THIS Team sucks.
This seems highly optimistic for some reason.
Enjoy your teams that both suck. I’m out.
[quote name=Suburban Kid]I’m out.[/quote]Cool farewell, bro.
I agree with SK on the messenger bag, but I just wish it wasn’t piss yellow.
Didn’t Figueroa dominate the Cubs last year? I feel like he did. Because that 60% seems really high to me too.
He shut them out for 6 innings in the last game of the year last year, plus he went 5 innings and gave up 3 runs in a start before that, but the one I was thinking of was when he was still with the Mets as he struck out 10 in 7 innings, allowing 1 run at the end of August.
It’s not as bad as I thought, but I stand by that 60% win probability seems awfully high.
Wow, the Astros *really* suck. 2 hitters above league average? And only by like twenty points? The Cubs are pretty mediocre, but the Astros just plain suck. I predict they win 5-3.
Nice to see that our national nightmare of Soto batting in a sensible place in the lineup is finally over.
[quote name=Rice Cube]This seems highly optimistic for some reason.[/quote]Don’t you like anything?
Angry that I tuned in to the Rays and the Sox were batting down 1-0. The Rays scored their one run for the day and I missed it.
So… the run totals here are completely different from base runs, right? Can anybody explain to me why anyone would use base runs when you can just use wRC and RS? Without me having to read http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Base_Runs, I mean, (dying laughing).
Annd… does the score prediction actually come from any of that? Or do you guys just make it up?
Why is our best leadoff hitter in aa? Another double for bjax
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Why is our best leadoff hitter in aa? Another double for bjax[/quote]
Because the Byrd is the word, man.
[quote name=Mish]Don’t you like anything?[/quote]
I’d like Soto not to bat 8th but you see how well that’s working out.
the astros are a fucking joke. Their MLB team sucks, their farm sucks and McLane is selling the club. So if the Cubs struggle tonight even just a little bit i will be full of rage
[quote name=Rice Cube]Because the Byrd is the word, man.[/quote]
Jackson up by june?
[quote name=fang2415]So… the run totals here are completely different from base runs, right? Can anybody explain to me why anyone would use base runs when you can just use wRC and RS? Without me having to read http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Base_Runs, I mean, (dying laughing).[/quote]
base runs is the best run estimator, but is non-linear and fairly complex. wRC assumes league average in all situations, which is useful in evaluating an individual relative to the rest of the league, but not as much for actually predicting runs.
Rays can has runs?
[quote name=Mish]Rays can has runs?[/quote]
The Red Sox must really suck then.
This will be our best seller for sure (not available yet so you’ll have to wait patiently)
^ Methinks that should be a broken heart, but very nicely done.
I literally just facepalmed myself when I saw that Barney is hitting 2nd and Soto’s hitting 8th. It’s a way of [L]ife.
so does this site have a gay sex chat room or what?
[quote name=Rice Cube]^ Methinks that should be a broken heart, but very nicely done.[/quote]
Like a BFF necklace that you guys can share with your best stat fag buddy. (dying laughing)
[quote name=melissa]Like a BFF necklace that you guys can share with your best stat fag buddy. (dying laughing)[/quote]
It just might work.
[quote name=fang2415]So… the run totals here are completely different from base runs, right? Can anybody explain to me why anyone would use base runs when you can just use wRC and RS? Without me having to read http://www.tangotiger.net/wiki/index.php?title=Base_Runs, I mean, (dying laughing).
Annd… does the score prediction actually come from any of that? Or do you guys just make it up?[/quote]Base Runs would be the best way to go, but is far too complex for something like this. Plus, I’m not even sure half the projections have the necessary stats to even calculate it. I know some do, but I know some don’t.
wRC basically replaces Bill James Runs Created. It ignores sequencing, which is huge. Base Runs takes it into consideration. FIP also ignores sequencing.
Basically, these totals are accurate if you don’t consider sequencing.
The run totals are based on the offense, defense, starting pitcher and bullpen. The Win Probability is calculated using Pythagenpat. It’s adjusted for home field advantage.
The numbers aren’t accurate. There’s too much that I can’t include, but they give us a general idea of the strength of each team compared to the other.
It’s just really easy to set this up and once it’s done it’s just as easy to publish here. It shows the projections and how many weighted runs the team would score absent sequencing, how many runs the pitching staff would allow absent sequencing (and absent HR/FB luck with the bullpen). That’s a lot that it doesn’t show.
I think I said last year and maybe when I first posted these here that if you take these numbers and bet all your money you deserve to lose all of it.
I forget did keith law leave brett jackson out of hos top 100? If so I dont get it
[quote name=dylanj]so does this site have a gay sex chat room or what?[/quote]No. As many people that would be in there, this site would crash in about 20 minutes.
I don’t think so, bdc. At least I can’t imagine him doing so.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]I forget did keith law leave brett jackson out of hos top 100? If so I dont get it[/quote]
KLaw had him as his “101″, or so I remember.
[quote name=Mish]KLaw had him as his “101″, or so I remember.[/quote]
This is what I remembered as well. I just dont see how he isnt a potential all star if he stays in center. He seems to geg on base well hit for power and can run
Bubbles is confused
I know Barney doesn’t have many plate appearances, but a .333 average and a .316 OBP is funny.
is mlb.tv not working for anyone else?
Still having problems, dj? I’m watching on TV.
Soriano with a 2 run double
Gameday tried giving that RBI double to Colvin at first, I didn’t know Brenly was in charge.
How many l-o-l-lygagging base runners is Quintero going to pick off in this series?
Should have been a three-run triple. Lazy Latins clogging the bases.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Should have been a three-run triple. Lazy Latins clogging the bases.[/quote]
I was thinking in the park grand slam.
Vitters goes deep.. I still have faith in the bat
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Vitters goes deep.. I still have faith in the bat[/quote]Hows he looked? I saw he had a big opening day.
How do you delete a comment?
im good now. just needed a reboot
Michael burgess went deep again for his third of season
Barney with RBI triple —-> MVP
Darwin barney is awesome
I like being wrong.
[quote name=Aisle424]I like being wrong.[/quote]Amusing
You know, I really did like Sam Fuld. Impressive game today.
[quote name=mb21]I know Barney doesn’t have many plate appearances, but a .333 average and a .316 OBP is funny.[/quote]
How is this possible? Does Barney have a sac fly in that is in the denominator of OBP and therefore
Pulling OBP below his BA?
[quote name=cdw]How is this possible? Does Barney have a sac fly in that is in the denominator of OBP and therefore
Pulling OBP below his BA?[/quote]Sac hits count as a PA but not an AB.
Just sacrifices, not sac hits.
[quote name=cdw]How is this possible? Does Barney have a sac fly in that is in the denominator of OBP and therefore
Pulling OBP below his BA?[/quote]
It should even out now. He took a walk earlier, but he did have a sac fly a few games ago. Sac flies count against OBP.
Fuld’s a single away from the cycle now.
[quote name=Mish]Fuld’s a single away from the cycle now.[/quote]
Well, Barney is now a double and a homerun shy of the cycle.
I think all these runs scored today have been with 2 outs
Wow, a stolen base.
And now the guys on ESPN are up on their high horse about steroids… God this is getting old. “To me the record is still 61.”
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]And now the guys on ESPN are up on their high horse about steroids… God this is getting old. “To me the record is still 61.”[/quote]I hate that. The record is 73. It’s a matter of record. There is no denying that the single season home run record is 73. It’s as much a fact as the following statement: today is Monday.
[quote name=mb21]I hate that. The record is 73. It’s a matter of record. There is no denying that the single season home run record is 73. It’s as much a fact as the following statement: today is Monday.[/quote]
and Tuesday comes after
Marlon Byrd off to another hot start this season. Darwin Barney is going to become the first to hit .400 since Ted Williams. Dempster is rolling tonight.
Quade is a genius again.
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]and Tuesday comes after[/quote]And then Wednesday, Thursday and Friday Friday.
http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?id=6332396
It sounds like Byrd went on his own thinking he had the green light.
Dempster looks good. Not hard against this team
[quote name=mb21]I hate that. The record is 73. It’s a matter of record. There is no denying that the single season home run record is 73. It’s as much a fact as the following statement: today is Monday.[/quote]
I just hate the insinuation that guys who haven’t been caught aren’t pushing the boundaries in other ways or haven’t found something undetectable.
Keving goldstein just said he never said castro was slow on twitter to me.. Anyone got the quote?
[quote name=mb21]I hate that. The record is 73. It’s a matter of record. There is no denying that the single season home run record is 73. It’s as much a fact as the following statement: today is Monday.[/quote]Today is Friday for me. Prove me wrong.
Fuck a duck, that’s the second hard out Soto’s hit today. That sucks.
You can probably search ACB and find it. He never said he was slow. He just made it sound as though he had average speed.
Hey, the Cubs are winning! .500 here we come!
I love how I’m blacked out of this Astros games despite the fact that I pay for the sports tier and still don’t get the Astros RSN.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Fuck a duck[/quote]
Don’t tell me what to do.
the record is 61
fuck bonds
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Keving goldstein just said he never said castro was slow on twitter to me.. Anyone got the quote?[/quote]
He has always said he had average speed. Made fun of people who said he was fast on his podcast by stating his time to first.
[quote name=dylanj]the record is 61
fuck bonds and his shrunken balls[/quote]
/orchidometer’d
[quote name=Berselius]I love how I’m blacked out of this Astros games despite the fact that I pay for the sports tier and still don’t get the Astros RSN.[/quote]Same thing here except with Kansas City. The difference between you and I is that I’d actually like to watch the Royals. I was able to yesterday and then GBTS told me I was watching a replay. Bastard.
[quote name=dylanj]the record is 61
fuck bonds[/quote]Pretty sure the record is 73. That’s something you’ll have to deal with.
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]He has always said he had average speed. Made fun of people who said he was fast on his podcast by stating his time to first.[/quote]
I have no idea why people listen to their podcast. I listened to it once or twice and they seem to consistently go off on tangents about postmodern literature and indie music. IIRC they loved insisting that they weren’t hipsters (dying laughing). Even if it was more entertaining there’s no way I’m listening to a podcast for TWO FUCKING HOURS.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Fuck a duck, that’s the second hard out Soto’s hit today. That sucks.[/quote]
Soto’s BABIP is .208 so far. And I’m a little surprised that Castro’s is only .351. Although I don’t think that includes today’s display of Castrotasticism.
[quote name=mb21]Pretty sure the record is 73. That’s something you’ll have to deal with.[/quote]
The record is 266 R+RBI. Use a real stat, faget.
Soto’s babip was quite low to begin the season last year and then he got hot.
He also walked about once a game for the first three months so babip didn’t even matter much.
[quote name=Berselius]The record is 266 R+RBI. Use a real stat, faget.[/quote](dying laughing)
Anyway, today’s game makes clear that Barney is the superior hitter. They should stick with this lineup.
Isringhausen —-> alive
Len and Bob are cheesing out about Castro swinging at pitches outside the strike zone
I’m only on GameDay. How many pitches is Castro at in this at-bat?
[quote name=Rice Cube]I’m only on GameDay. How many pitches is Castro at in this at-bat?[/quote]
13!
Awwww, he struck out.
That was starting to remind me of this AB some Dodger player had against Matt Clement back in 2003 or 2004. I think it was a 17-pitch AB and Clement had thrown a gem in a 1-1 game. The 17th pitch was the game winning home run. I wish I could remember who hit it because the guy never hit home runs.
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Len and Bob are cheesing out about Castro swinging at pitches outside the strike zone[/quote]Castro does like to swing the bat. Not as much as Zambrano, but pretty close.
Wow, I just went to gameday for the first time this season. Thems is some perty pitchers.
[quote name=mb21]Castro does like to swing the bat. Not as much as Zambrano, but pretty close.[/quote]
He seems unusually good at making contact though.
I am gonna be really surprised id starlin isnt a superduperstar
I think it was Alex Cora, MB
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN200405120.shtml
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]I am gonna be really surprised id starlin isnt a superduperstar[/quote]
BUST
[quote name=mb21]That was starting to remind me of this AB some Dodger player had against Matt Clement back in 2003 or 2004. I think it was a 17-pitch AB and Clement had thrown a gem in a 1-1 game. The 17th pitch was the game winning home run. I wish I could remember who hit it because the guy never hit home runs.[/quote]
I remember watching that live I want to say it was furcal but im not sure
[quote name=mb21]That was starting to remind me of this AB some Dodger player had against Matt Clement back in 2003 or 2004. I think it was a 17-pitch AB and Clement had thrown a gem in a 1-1 game. The 17th pitch was the game winning home run. I wish I could remember who hit it because the guy never hit home runs.[/quote]
I remember that. I was sitting in my car waiting for the at-bat to end so I could go meet my friends and it just kept going and then I sat and swore in my car for a few more minutes after that.
[quote name=Berselius]I think it was Alex Cora, MB
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/LAN/LAN200405120.shtml/quote
Didn’t Julio Franco also do it to Clement at some point that year?
[quote name=mb21]That was starting to remind me of this AB some Dodger player had against Matt Clement back in 2003 or 2004. I think it was a 17-pitch AB and Clement had thrown a gem in a 1-1 game. The 17th pitch was the game winning home run. I wish I could remember who hit it because the guy never hit home runs.[/quote]Was it Jose Viscaino?
Heh, no, B’s right. I think it was Cora.
So I guess it wasn’t the game winner, but it pretty much put it our of reach.
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Len and Bob are cheesing out about Castro swinging at pitches outside the strike zone[/quote]The fact that he was making contact on everything was pretty impressive, especially against a guy he was seeing for the first time. But they did joke that Carlos Pena would have walked three times in the at-bat. (dying laughing)
[quote name=AndCounting]The fact that he was making contact on everything was pretty impressive, especially against a guy he was seeing for the first time. But they did joke that Carlos Pena would have walked three times in the at-bat. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Patience, my young Padawan…
Last inning for Dempster, right?
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]And now the guys on ESPN are up on their high horse about steroids… God this is getting old. “To me the record is still 61.”[/quote]
fuck those assholes.
about time this inning ended (dying laughing)
how many times has Aramis thrown a ball in the dirt this year with that strong arm of his. grrr
The Astros have Abad pitcher.
*bada bum*
Ramirez tried to unhinge his spine on that last swing.
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]And now the guys on ESPN are up on their high horse about steroids… God this is getting old. “To me the record is still 61.”[/quote]
Anyway, they’re wrong, it’s obviously 60. Anything after the 154th game gets an asterisk.
[quote name=fang2415]Anyway, they’re wrong, it’s obviously 60. Anything after the 154th game gets an asterisk.[/quote]Nothing counts since they outlawed the spitball. The record is 12.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Nothing counts since they outlawed the spitball. The record is 12.[/quote]
That must have been before they installed fences.
Burgess hit two homeruns tonight
That would have been a HR on the moon.
[quote name=Rice Cube]That must have been before they installed fences.[/quote]I’m old school. I was hating on HR records before it was cool.
More Dempster.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Nothing counts since they outlawed the spitball. The record is 12.[/quote]
But then anyone could hit 12 homers with a 60.5-ft pitching distance. Even Yellon. That record is his by right.
Cubs lose
Bring in Russell. I don’t care if he starts tomorrow, we need him NOW
Time for Dempster to go. When Michael Fucking Bourn is taking you to the wall you are done (dying laughing)
[quote name=fang2415]Bring in Russell. I don’t care if he starts tomorrow, we need him NOW[/quote]
It just might work
this call might be tough. looked like it could’ve hit the rail over the padded wall?
[quote name=fang2415]Bring in Russell. I don’t care if he starts tomorrow, we need him NOW[/quote]That’s a modest proposal.
Leave Starters in too long. Let’s see what happens.
[quote name=fang2415]Bring in Woody. I don’t care if he starts tomorrow, we need him NOW[/quote]
Fixed
[quote name=AndCounting]That’s a modest proposal.[/quote]
I’ve always thought he looks tasty.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Nothing counts since they outlawed the spitball. The record is 12.[/quote]I only count the first year of the National League. The record is 5.
[quote name=mb21]I only count the first year of the National League. The record is 5.[/quote]The Tribune just called. You’re hired.
Wow.
Oh my god this team fucking sucks
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Leave Starters in too long. Let’s see what happens.[/quote]
touche (dying laughing)
Fuck Quade.
[quote name=Berselius]
[/quote]
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
The $1.4 million I put after I saw the Cubs 5 Astros 4 projection is looking safe
BALDY MCGRINDY!!!!! Mike Quade is the perfect manager for this team.
Quade told Dempster this morning he would throw 120 pitches.
John Grabow comes in with a one run lead in the 7th. Did Wood, Marshall, Marmol and Mateo go on the DL today?
fucking dempster
Don’t worry, Grabow will shut ‘em down (dying laughing)
[quote name=fang2415]The $1.4 million I put after I saw the Cubs 5 Astros 4 projection is looking safe[/quote]Not with John Grabow in. More like Cubs 5, Astros 29
grabow?
Dempster was done at the beginning of this inning. He should have been taken out after one batter.
Sam fuld is awesome
To be fair, Quade is probably saving MWM for tomorrow since they’ll each need to go two innings after Russell’s 3 (dying laughing)
When Hunter Pence walks against you, it’s time to quit.
I don’t get this move. Why worry about tomorrow’s game? Why not win today’s first?
[quote name=mb21]Not with John Grabow in. More like Cubs 5, Astros 29[/quote]
I actually hedged 380K on that one so I’d be fine there too
Don’t worry, Jeff Stevens will shut ‘em down (dying laughing)
John Grabow and his agent must have been (dying laughing) all the way to the bank when they left Hendry’s office after signing that deal.
Call me crazy, but 1 run lead in the 7th, that’s setup time, right? Even if you need those guys for 3 innings the next day, gotta win today.
How’s Grabow’s platoon splits? I thought he was supposed to be a LOOGY.
[quote name=mb21]Call me crazy, but 1 run lead in the 7th, that’s setup time, right? Even if you need those guys for 3 innings the next day, gotta win today.[/quote]Ignore the numbers. Let’s see what happens.
Hey, that was easy. So why the hell isn’t Grabow starting tomorrow?
[quote name=fang2415]Hey, that was easy. So why the hell isn’t Grabow starting tomorrow?[/quote]He’s only just passed his bullpen test.
[quote name=fang2415]Hey, that was easy. So why the hell isn’t Grabow starting tomorrow?[/quote]
They’d have had to double his salary for that.
[quote name=Rice Cube]They’d have had to double his salary for that.[/quote]And they’ve already used that money to pay Koyie Hill’s contract.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]He’s only just passed his bullpen test.[/quote]
Give it a week. They can put him in the rotation as soon as he records a station ID for WGN
That’s another loud out for Soto. Eventually they’ll drop, right?
Soto sucks. Put Hill in before it’s too late.
[quote name=Rice Cube]That’s another loud out for Soto. Eventually they’ll drop, right?[/quote]I’ve never seen a hitter hit more line drives right at people.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’ve never seen a hitter hit more line drives right at people.[/quote]
Seems like someone’s been studying the spray charts very well.
That was a pretty bad AB by Castro. most of those pitches were WAY out of the zone.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I’ve never seen a hitter hit more line drives right at people.[/quote]
I’ve got a trivia question for you, who hit the hardest line drives?
I think Castro has seen more pitches tonight than Marlon Byrd has seen all season.
Glad Quade is bringing in the real relievers now that the LI is back down
Geez…I’m reading the reliever leverage chapter of “The Book” now and I think Quade is doing it wrong. Why waste Marshall on the bottom of this order?
Ah, there, now it’s back up.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Why waste Marshall on the bottom of this order?[/quote]Because they’re gamers.
Mike Quade is entirely at sea. Great hire, there, Jimbo.
Sandburg would have brought in Marmol to get those last 2 in the seventh
Here comes the sweep, (dying laughing)
Well, at least you can’t say Aramis doesn’t give effort.
our fucking offense just cant get the job done. Put up 5 early and do nothing the rest of the game. VS THE ASTROS BULLPEN.
they deserve to lose
[quote name=dylanj]our fucking offense just cant get the job done. Put up 5 early and do nothing the rest of the game. VS THE ASTROS BULLPEN.
they deserve to lose[/quote]
Right on. You can’t expect to beat the Astros if you can’t score at least 9 runs.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Sam fuld is awesome[/quote]
In with the “Better than a cycle”
8 of 9 games decided by 3 or less. 10th game is going down the wire.
I’m calling a wild pitch/passed ball..tie game, followed by a flare single for the lead. Who’s with me.
[quote name=mb21]8 of 9 games decided by 3 or less. 10th game is going down the wire.[/quote]
bad luck
[quote name=fang2415]Right on.
YouThe Cubs can’t expect tobeat the Astroswin any fucking games with this bullpen if you can’t score at least 9 runs.[/quote].
Are the LI numbers at http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml really out of date or something? It says that Bourn’s PA should have had an LI of 4.9, but http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2011-04-11&team=Astros&dh=0&season=2011 says it was 5.6. Can a couple years of data really change it that much?
Also, thank fuck for Marmol.
10 games in not a fan of quade. We supposedly have 7 relievers but 2 are worthless in shark and grabow.. Tomorrow is going to be an unmitigated disaster. How can you go into a gam expecting 50 pitches? We are going,to burn the pen out before we get to msy.. Shit we go to colorado next.. If,you are intent on sacrificing a game bring up diamond and say fuck it you are throwing 100 wether you are good or miserable.
Good news is I think we will get to see chris carpenter sooner than later
Nasty
[quote name=Horny Goat]I’m calling a wild pitch/passed ball..tie game, followed by a flare single for the lead. Who’s with me.[/quote]
False.
there’s still the 9th (dying laughing)
Thabk god for marmol
[quote name=fang2415]Are the LI numbers at http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml really out of date or something? It says that Bourn’s PA should have had an LI of 4.9, but http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2011-04-11&team=Astros&dh=0&season=2011 says it was 5.6. Can a couple years of data really change it that much?
Also, thank fuck for Marmol.[/quote]I don’t understand how LI is calculated. I’ve never really looked into it.
Marmol enters the game and gameday reads as follows: Slider, slider, slider, slider, slider. (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]Nasty[/quote]
he’s been damn good this year so far except for that one game, helped out by the dribbler.
[quote name=Xoomwaffle]Right on.
YouThe Cubs can’t expect tobeat the Astroswin any fucking games with this bullpen if you can’t score at least 9 runs.[/quote]Correct[quote name=Xoomwaffle]Slider, slider, slider, slider, slider. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Marmol is good at sliders.
[quote name=GW]I’ve got a trivia question for you, who hit the hardest line drives?[/quote]
Al Oliver.
Tony Perez
/Joe Morgan
That was bloody pathetic.
Who said the Cubs wouldn’t touch .500 again this year. This is exciting! (dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]That was Cubs baseball[/quote]
.
[quote name=mb21]I don’t understand how LI is calculated. I’ve never really looked into it.[/quote]LI has become one of my favorite stats. I think it’s basically the range of WPA outcomes that a PA can have, with the average set at 1.
Or in English, how likely is this PA to affect the outcome of the game?
Deuced difficult to find a formula for it though (why fangraphs doesn’t print all of those prominently I have no idea)… I’ll have a scroogle before Marmol gives me a heart attack
[quote name=GW]Al Oliver.[/quote]What makes you say that?
I don’t like how Fangraphs lists several different LI types. Just give me one.
Looks like we got White Castle tonight.
[quote name=GW]I’ve got a trivia question for you, who hit the hardest line drives?[/quote]Chico Escuela.
[quote name=fang2415]LI has become one of my favorite stats. I think it’s basically the range of WPA outcomes that a PA can have, with the average set at 1.
Or in English, how likely is this PA to affect the outcome of the game?
Deuced difficult to find a formula for it though (why fangraphs doesn’t print all of those prominently I have no idea)… I’ll have a scroogle before Marmol gives me a heart attack[/quote]
Pretty sure everyone uses Tango’s formula, and that its proprietary, but he allows fangraphs, bill james online, etc. to use it. But I’m not even sure it is a formula; I would think it’s an empirical matrix.
[quote name=mb21]What makes you say that?[/quote]http://awfulannouncing.blogspot.com/2008/06/whos-ready-for-some-joe-morgan-trivia.html
Yeah, I was basically right: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/crucial-situations/. That article is especially good because Tango illustrates it by walking through the Bartman inning.
But I’m still not sure why fangraphs’ numbers are so different than Tango’s table. If anything, I’d expect the LI to go down with the current lower run environment.
C’mon, Carlos…
Baseball Reference has it too
Ruh roh!
here we go Cubbies here we go
No one covering 2nd base?
Goddamn it Marmol, since when do hitters make contact off of you?
Anyway, I don’t think LI is proprietary since it should be derivable as long as you have the linear weights.
I like it most for the game graphs. The different numbers for players are just for different things, e.g., pinch-hitting. FSM knows there’s plenty of stats everywhere that I’ve learned to ignore so I don’t mind having a few more.
No problem. Marmol —> rotation
cubs win? holy shit. no way
Tidy 3,721 pitch inning for Marmol. (dying laughing)
WAY!
newold thread up: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/obstructed-view-merchandise-a-dream-come-true-updated.htmlCubs win time for monday night raw
This was the game you expected the cubs to win right, B?
.500!
Ahem, now that my full brain is back… LI isn’t too important for players since it’s so situational (i.e., not predictive). But it’s a hoot for watching games — it’s the vertical bars at the bottom of graphs like this one. If there’s one stat I’d love to see on TV during games, LI might be it.
Castro: 31 pitches seen in five PAs.
Ah, reading that Tango article I linked, I see that there’s at least two possible recipes for LI. So maybe they can differ by 1.5 or whatever at the upper end. Meh. I still wish fangraphs printed all their formulas, since hardly any of their stuff’s proprietary.