Time: 7:05 pm CT
Gameday
B-Ref Preview
| Cubs | wOBA | wRC | RS | Astros | wOBA | wRC | RS | |
| Starlin Castro | .332 | .554 | -0.13 | Michael Bourn | .307 | .448 | 0.03 | |
| Darwin Barney | .293 | .383 | 0.03 | Angel Sanchez | .287 | .360 | -0.07 | |
| Marlon Byrd | .338 | .558 | -0.01 | Hunter Pence | .342 | .571 | -0.01 | |
| Aramis Ramirez | .350 | .588 | -0.03 | Carlos Lee | .338 | .543 | -0.05 | |
| Carlos Pena | .378 | .677 | -0.01 | Jason Michaels | .318 | .451 | -0.04 | |
| Alfonso Soriano | .339 | .516 | -0.10 | Bill Hall | .311 | .415 | -0.09 | |
| Geovany Soto | .362 | .585 | 0.00 | Chris Johnson | .319 | .431 | -0.05 | |
| Tyler Colvin | .318 | .420 | 0.00 | Humberto Quintero | .272 | .260 | -0.01 | |
| James Russell | .175 | .000 | 0.00 | Brett Myers | .175 | .000 | 0.00 | |
| 4.3 | -.24 | 3.5 | -0.29 |
| Starting Pitcher | IP/GS | FIP |
| James Russell | 3.50 | 5.79 |
| Brett Myers | 6.32 | 4.07 |
| Bullpens | xFIP | |
| Cubs | 3.33 | |
| Astros | 4.5 | |
Score: Cubs 4.8, Astros 4
Win Probability: 53.5%
I filled in Russell’s IP/GS and figured he’d go no more than 3.5. That’s good for the Cubs since he sucks.
I admire your optimism.
(dying laughing) at this predicition. Better hope that bullpen xFIP is anywhere close to accurate. Though this is also a reflection of how epically shitty the Astros offense is. Their best hitter is barely better than Soriano.
So the unfortunate thing about Russell starting is I would be interested to see what happens if the Cubs would use a different and good pitcher each time through the rotation and this would be the game to do that experiment. Unfortunately, we’ll prolly see F7, Grabow and Koyie after Russell.
[quote name=Berselius](dying laughing) at this predicition. Better hope that bullpen xFIP is anywhere close to accurate. Though this is also a reflection of how epically shitty the Astros offense is. Their best hitter is barely better than Soriano.[/quote]The Cubs true talent bullpen xFIP is nowhere near 3.33. That’s just what it is now. I thought about increasing it since the Cubs are going to have to use about every reliever they have and some of them suck.
Koyie probably wouldn’t be any worse than Russell, F7 or Grabow.
*edit
I mean each time through the batting order
[quote name=mb21]Koyie probably wouldn’t be any worse than Russell, F7 or Grabow.[/quote]
Koyie does have a cutter and a split-finger fastball.
/recycled joke
[quote name=Rice Cube]Koyie does have a cutter and a split-finger fastball.
/recycled joke[/quote]
A killer knuckle ball. Hey-O
[quote name=cdw]A killer knuckle ball. Hey-O[/quote]
It’s actually a knuckle-less ball
If Koyie pitches to his CERA he may be better than F7, Grabow and Russell.
[quote name=melissa]It’s actually a knuckle-less ball[/quote]
I guess the amputations were below the knuckle. Does that mean he has more or less movement?
I think that could be considered a palmball.
Interesting: http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2011/04/buck-showalters-2000000-tactic.html
Assuming the 2011 numbers will hold forever, I like Barney hitting second. Who’s to say he can’t maintain a .381 babip all year?
[quote name=fang2415]Assuming the 2011 numbers will hold forever, I like Barney hitting second. Who’s to say he can’t maintain a .381 babip all year?[/quote]
Me,I’ll say it. Barney won’t maintain a .381 babip. Prove me wrong. Done deal sealed.
If any of these fancy charts showed player intangibles, Darwin Barney’s wouldn’t be on there.
castro can hit
[quote name=mb21]Interesting: http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2011/04/buck-showalters-2000000-tactic.html/quote
I would like to see a video of the runner at 1st taking out the 2nd baseman at the base line. (dying laughing)
Castro is awesome.. Want him to drive it a little more but hes 21
So the new gameday doesn’t let the user rotate the view to see the break/location of the pitches from a different angle or go back to a previous batter to see location/pfx data?
Brenly said Myers gets stronger as the game goes on; he’s not the only one who’s said this about X pitcher. Given that research shows that lineups generally hit pitchers multiple times through, as there ever been research done to see if any pitchers over a bulk of their career did actually fare better the second/third times through the lineup consistently?
If Bourn could put it there very AB, he’d bat .850.
[quote name=cdw]I would like to see a video of the runner at 1st taking out the 2nd baseman at the base line. (dying laughing)[/quote]I had to read that part several times too. I’m assuming by baseline he meant the baseline from 1st to 2nd.
Bunt ‘em on, bunt ‘em over, bunt ‘em in.
Looks like the Astros have study some film on Russell…
[quote name=Mish]Brenly said Myers gets stronger as the game goes on; he’s not the only one who’s said this about X pitcher. Given that research shows that lineups generally hit pitchers multiple times through, as there ever been research done to see if any pitchers over a bulk of their career did actually fare better the second/third times through the lineup consistently?[/quote]I’m sure there are some who have, but they’re rare.
[quote name=mb21]Bunt ‘em on, bunt ‘em over, bunt ‘em in.[/quote]
And… it just might work.
Small ball eh.
The Astros are now managed by Tom Emanski, apparently.
I like the part where there are no outs yet.
I call we lose by 11 and shatk gives up 8 runs
This game is already a joke.
Also: Starlin Castro does not have difficulty hitting the baseball.
Squeezy zone. Seems that Lee should’ve struck out.
Can’t believe Pence and Lee are in the line-up tonight. Both came in batting .000 vs Russell in their careers.
Carlos Lee’s Cub-killing days —–> past
I think Russell is going to use up his 45 pitches in this inning. Samardzija for the 8-inning save?
We might have 50 pitches before 2 outs what the fuck were they thinking
His legend grows.
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/thing-thats-happening-legendofsamfuld/
how on earth do the cubs have the win % edge in this game?
Cue the Benny Hill music…
This is awesome. They missed a tag. A tag. Missed it. Wow.
only the cubs
DeRosa almighty…
[quote name=AndCounting]This game is already a joke.
Also: Starlin Castro does not have difficulty hitting the baseball.[/quote]It is absolutely a joke. Soriano can’t field a ball, Darwin Barney can’t tag a guy, runs scoring while it all goes on. It’s like a bad team in a baseball movie.
[quote name=dylanj]how on earth do the cubs have the win % edge in this game?[/quote]The 3.33 bullpen xFIP and only 3.5 innings from the terrible Russell. Since the bullpen xFIP’s true talent is nowhere near 3.33, the Astros would easily have had the advantage. I just wasn’t going to adjust it.
(dying laughing)
cue Yakety Sax
GameDay is taking forever to update because they have to sort through all the dumbassery.
36 pitches—-> 3 outs
[quote name=AndCounting]
[/quote]Cubs lose.
Colvin and Byrd getting in on the fun.
Great F7 is warming up if we weren’t screwed before we are now
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
James Russell isn’t even trying to keep Bourn in check.
[quote name=AndCounting]
[/quote]
Someone please add a “…let’s see what happens” to one of these.
[quote name=AndCounting]
[/quote]That needs to go on the Facebook page.
Oof. This is not going to be pretty…
I dont understand the thought process behind this start… Everything happened that I thought would
That should go on the facebook page MB (dying laughing)
8 bbs in 3 ip for shark… Lets see what happens
[quote name=mb21]
[/quote]
This is the best thing to ever happen to this blog.
It’s also great to know that Carlos Lee is the only one we can get out, after years of being the only one we couldn’t.
[quote name=Rice Cube]That should go on the facebook page MB (dying laughing)[/quote]I created an album called FAIL. It will fill up in a hurry.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]I dont understand the thought process behind this start… Everything happened that I thought would[/quote]
Seriously, did they ever give an explanation? Even if they did, it wouldn’t be good enough.
I should create an It’s a way of life album and include some of these: http://www.anothercubsblog.org/its-a-way-of-life/thumbnails.php?album=1
With Jay Jackson injured, who else was going to start though? F7? Chris Carpenter would have been a good call, but he’s been moved to the bullpen so he can throw 4 mph faster. Let’s move all guys to the bullpen so they can throw 4 mph faster too.
It’s going to be awhile before Doug Davis is ready so I’m guessing the Cubs use some other bad pitcher as their 5th starter next time out.
What about the fabled 3-inning rotation, where one starter goes the first three, another goes the second three and the third closes out the game?
Just a bit outside … (Dying laughing)
[quote name=Rice Cube]What about the fabled 3-inning rotation, where one starter goes the first three, another goes the second three and the third closes out the game?[/quote]
The Cubs have to scale that back to 2,2,2,2,1 due to their available “talent” pool.
To complete the fail, there’s a grown man in a Cubs jersey in the stands wrestling a tween girl for a foul ball.
The Cubs will be talking about Angel Guzman as a rotation option in about 3 weeks.
3 weeks after that we’ll hear rumors about Mark Prior returning to Chicago.
What’s Paul Assenmacher up to?
Someone sent me this on Twitter:
(dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]3 weeks after that we’ll hear rumors about Mark Prior returning to Chicago.[/quote]
That would actually be kind of cool.
(dying laughing) that’s hilarious.
In 9 weeks Greg Maddux will decide to return to baseball and begin throwing at Iowa.
[quote name=melissa]To complete the fail, there’s a grown man in a Cubs jersey in the stands wrestling a tween girl for a foul ball.[/quote]
He deserves to get his ass kicked, apparently.
http://www.observer-reporter.com/or/steigstory/04-10-2011-Steigerwald
Carlos Pena ———–> slow
LMAO (dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
EDIT: He’s trying so hard!
^ I like how the fielder is just kinda waiting, and maybe motioning Theriot to hurry up and get tagged out already.
[quote name=Aisle424]He deserves to get his ass kicked, apparently.
http://www.observer-reporter.com/or/steigstory/04-10-2011-Steigerwald[/quote]
I agree completely. Which is why I always wear a 3-piece suit and top hat when I go to games.
The only chance Theriot had in that situation was if the fielder gots a cramp from holding that position for 5 min.
What is the over/under on F7 walking Myers?
[quote name=cdw]The only chance Theriot had in that situation was if the fielder died of old age before Theriot got there.[/quote]fixed
Sometimes I love falling asleep to baseball on the screen, be it a late game or something. This one looks to go especially long.
Darwin Barney has pretty much sucked on defense this year.
[quote name=mb21]Darwin Barney has pretty much sucked on defense this year.[/quote]
But he’s going to hit 20 home runs…
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]But he’s going to hit 20 home runs…[/quote]
Only in Brenly’s mind. I think when ARZ beat NYY the universe was temporarily sucked into a worm hole that made Brenly’s thoughts=reality.
The Cubs have scored 43 runs and given up 53 on the season. They’ve played some pretty bad teams: 3 vs PIT, 3 vs Arizona, 1+ vs Houston.
This is a bad team.
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]But he’s going to hit 20 home runs…[/quote]By the all-star break!
I think this one is going to get pretty ugly by the time it’s over. Check that… more ugly.
[quote name=mb21]The Cubs have scored 43 runs and given up 53 on the season. They’ve played some pretty bad teams: 3 vs PIT, 3 vs Arizona, 1+ vs Houston.
This is a bad team.[/quote]
small sample sizes, etc etc
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]But he’s going to hit 20 home runs…[/quote]
Batting practice doesn’t count…
[quote name=Rice Cube]Batting practice doesn’t count…[/quote]
Zing!
[quote name=Berselius]small sample sizes, etc etc[/quote]Of course. But if the Cubs wanted to contend this year they had to be far superior to the competition they’ve played early in the season. They haven’t been because they’re pretty bad. The Cubs will have a losing record this year against both the Pirates and Astros. I still think the Astros have a decent shot of finishing ahead of the Cubs. They’re certainly not THAT much worse than the Cubs.
Simpson had a shitty start tonight following up his good debut.
[quote name=mb21]Simpson had a shitty start tonight following up his good debut.[/quote]Doh.
Simpson eh?
First HBP of the year! Way to go F7.
WTF. Why not let F7 face the pitcher?
A BMOOGY.
Someone on the Cubs is gonna get hit I bet.
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Someone on the Cubs is gonna get hit I bet.[/quote]
I’m hoping it’s Quade.
[quote name=melissa]I’m hoping it’s Quade.[/quote](dying laughing)
Touche
Brenly said Byrd is “spoiling” us with his great defense in center. Did he miss him whiffing on the ball when he was backing up Colvin earlier in the game? Byrd is ok defensively but hardly stellar.
[quote name=melissa]Brenly said Byrd is “spoiling” us with his great defense in center. Did he miss him whiffing on the ball when he was backing up Colvin earlier in the game? Byrd is ok defensively but hardly stellar.[/quote]
But he dives a lot…
Shutout in danger!
What a great game for Bill Hall
That was a hell of a catch by Hall.
That was a great catch by Hall.
His mouth guard is insane.
Pat Hughes was impressed.
I hope Soto isn’t benched tomorrow.
[quote name=Rice Cube]Pat Hughes was impressed.
I hope Soto isn’t benched tomorrow.[/quote]I think I’m going to drop Soto and pick up Koyie on my fantasy team. (dying laughing)
Kyle Farnsworth retires three lefties for the save against Boston in a series where Sam Fuld hit a home run and David Ortiz and Adrian Gonzalez each had triples.
Strange game, baseball.
Josh Hamilton ——> Out 6 to 8 weeks
[quote name=WaLi]I think I’m going to drop Soto and pick up Koyie on my fantasy team. (dying laughing)[/quote]I picked up Brandon Lyon for this series. My new strategy is to acquire the closer for whatever team the Cubs are playing. If he’s already on someone’s roster then I’ll take their best set up man. Their closer will probably be pretty tired by the third game.
Yay Colvin.
Tyler!
Btw Mish, my brother pointed out that Pablo Ozuna was on the 2005 White Sox, and he failed a drug test in 2009 with the Phillies.
Mateo ————> Carlos Marmol
[quote name=GBTS]Btw Mish, my brother pointed out that Pablo Ozuna was on the 2005 White Sox, and he failed a drug test in 2009 with the Phillies.[/quote]I used to think your brother was a good person, but all he does anymore is nitpick people’s comments.
Besides, Pablo Ozuna doesn’t count anyway. He doesn’t hit home runs.
[quote name=mb21]Mateo ————> Carlos Marmol[/quote]That was a nice inning from Mateo. As most innings against the Astros should be.
[quote name=AndCounting]That was a nice inning from Mateo. As most innings against the Astros should be.[/quote](dying laughing)
Speaking of home runs, Justin Upton hit a ball 2,788 feet tonight.
So what actually happened on that play in the 1st inning?
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]So what actually happened on that play in the 1st inning?[/quote]
(dying laughing)
Reed Johnson —-> Gamer
(dying laughing)
Pat and Zonk claimed he was out of the basepath?
You know, if the Cubs could figure out which 70 games they’re going to lose this season, they could only have Russell, F7 and Grabow pitch. They’d win 92 games!
Holy shit defense (or lack thereof)
Jesus H Mother of Christ the Dog Catcher this defense can suck with the best of them
[quote name=fang2415](dying laughing)
Pat and Zonk claimed he was out of the basepath?[/quote]He probably was. He jumped back about six feet from where he was standing, and apparently you’re only allowed three.
I didn’t know they sold John Grabow batting tees at Sports Authority!
[quote name=fang2415](dying laughing)
Pat and Zonk claimed he was out of the basepath?[/quote]I don’t know if he was or not, but have you ever seen a guy called out for being out of the basepaths between 1st and 2nd?
It’s just comical at this point. Balls are in the gloves and then they aren’t. In the glove and then it isn’t.
I think the Reed knocks the ball down, Soriano throws it in plan, just might work. (dying laughing)
I think the last 8 pitches from Grabow have been hit like rockets.
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]So what actually happened on that play in the 1st inning?[/quote]
Len just said, “And the route is on.” Has he been in a coma since the 2nd inning?
I think the Cubs should just send Grabow out for every inning the rest of the season. This inning has been the most entertaining one of the game by far.
This is embarassing
I guess Soto is getting the day off tomorrow.
Slaughter rule —> necessary for Cubs bullpen
Yet I can’t turn away?
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]This is embarassing[/quote]
I prefer to think of it as Amusing, but wrong.
Castro clearly didn’t get the memo. Ball is supposed to go in the glove and out.
[quote name=mb21]Castro clearly didn’t get the memo. Ball is supposed to go in the glove and out.[/quote]
Maybe he could use a couple days off to get his head together.
Wow, I’ve never seen the 0% win probability so quickly on FanGraphs.
[quote name=mb21]You know, if the Cubs could figure out which 70 games they’re going to lose this season, they could only have Russell, F7 and Grabow pitch. They’d win 92 games![/quote]
So basically there’s the half of the bullpen for games we don’t care about, and then Marhsall, Wood, and Marmol (and sometimes Mateo) for games we might win?
[quote name=Rice Cube]Wow, I’ve never seen the 0% win probability so quickly on FanGraphs.[/quote]April 1?
Soto with an absolute rocket that still almost got caught. I think the Astros coaches told the outfielders to let one drop.
Colvin can hit the ball a long way
Tyler Colvin with the selfish double.
Perfect spot for Starlin’s first homer.
[quote name=AndCounting]Perfect spot for Starlin’s first homer.[/quote]He got a perfect pitch for it, but fouled it off.
I know Castro is off to a great start, but he’s swinging the bat a lot more than he was last year. That kind of worries me. He’s swinging at everything this season.
Nice. Koyie Hill!
[quote name=mb21]Nice. Koyie Hill![/quote]Agreed. I want to see how many PA he can go without getting to first.
Doh
He walked once before this game, fang. Sorry.
Am I the only one rather enjoying the Red Sox this season?
Totally agree on Castro, especially these last few games. He’s swinging at a lot more pitches, although he looks like it gets much worse with two strikes.
And Koyie Hill just jacked the Cubs win expectancy to 35%, right?
[quote name=fang2415]Agreed. I want to see how many PA he can go without getting to first.[/quote]The Cubs can’t do anything right tonight.
Whoops I guess somebody was stupid enough to walk him before, too.
Anyway, I agree about Castro. That 400 babip is fine and all, but I wouldn’t mind seeing a walk or two just in case…
[quote name=AndCounting]Totally agree on Castro, especially these last few games. He’s swinging at a lot more pitches, although he looks like it gets much worse with two strikes.
And Koyie Hill just jacked the Cubs win expectancy to 35%, right?[/quote]A Koyie Hill sighting increases the win expectancy to roughly 78% to 148%. Somewhere between there.
Wow thank fuck that’s over with
[quote name=fang2415]Whoops I guess somebody was stupid enough to walk him before, too.
Anyway, I agree about Castro. That 400 babip is fine and all, but I wouldn’t mind seeing a walk or two just in case…[/quote]Sooner or later those balls are going to stop falling. He also seems to be hitting even more balls on the ground this year.
I’m not complaining. His defense has seemed to be improved this season. He’s only 21. I’m just concerned that his hitting hasn’t progressed as much as we think it has.
So…does Soto play tomorrow (night game) or does he sit? I thought he should’ve been out of the game by the sixth or seventh inning.
[quote name=Rice Cube]So…does Soto play tomorrow (night game) or does he sit? I thought he should’ve been out of the game by the sixth or seventh inning.[/quote]Frankly, I’m surprised they didn’t yank him tonight, especially after like the first 8 runs. This was maybe the one game in 2 years where I would’ve preferred that they put Hill in.
I’m sure they’ll start Hill tomorrow to spread their chance of losing evenly through the series.
http://houston.astros.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=13713593&c_id=hou
The real crappy thing about this game is that Russell actually pitched pretty well. The team just crumbled around him. Way to pick the kid up on his first major league start.
[quote name=mb21]Am I the only one rather enjoying the Red Sox this season?[/quote]I was wondering, did that inevitable contract extension announcement for Adrian Gonzalez get made yet?
New post: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/top-men.html