I had wanted to start using Base Runs instead of using wRC to calculate runs, but I need to look things over before I publish them. Hopefully tomorrow.
| Cubs | wOBA | wRC | RS | Rockies | wOBA | wRC | RS | |
| Starlin Castro | .332 | .524 | -0.03 | Dexter Fowler | .347 | .580 | -0.03 | |
| Darwin Barney | .293 | .365 | 0.00 | Jonathan Herrera | .298 | .383 | 0.02 | |
| Marlon Byrd | .338 | .518 | -0.01 | Carlos Gonzalez | .381 | .670 | 0.00 | |
| Aramis Ramirez | .350 | .544 | -0.03 | Troy Tulowitzki | .382 | .657 | 0.04 | |
| Carlos Pena | .378 | .624 | -0.01 | Todd Helton | .345 | .513 | -0.01 | |
| Alfonso Soriano | .339 | .477 | -0.10 | Seth Smith | .361 | .552 | 0.03 | |
| Tyler Colvin | .318 | .397 | 0.00 | Ian Stewart | .347 | .490 | -0.02 | |
| Geovany Soto | .362 | .525 | -0.01 | Chris Iannetta | .358 | .513 | 0.00 | |
| Matt Garza | .175 | .000 | 0.00 | Ryan Dempster | .175 | .000 | 0.00 | |
| 4.0 | -.2 | 4.4 | .0 |
| Starting Pitcher | IP/GS | FIP |
| Matt Garza | 6.30 | 4.38 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | 5.87 | 4.24 |
| Bullpens | xFIP | |
| Cubs | 4.02 | |
| Rockies | 3.75 | |
Score: Cubs 3.9, Rockies 4.2
Win Probability: 41.5%
I think this is my first post in a game thread on this site.
41.5% still seems a bit high. Are we assuming Garza can keep the ball in the park?
I liked the quote from Rudy regarding Castro’s discipline. I don’t want them to take away his aggressiveness so I’m glad that’s not what they’re doing.
[quote name=Rice Cube]41.5% still seems a bit high. Are we assuming Garza can keep the ball in the park?[/quote]Based on the 2 or 3 times I’ve seen Chacin start, I’m surprised the Rockies win probability isn’t 95%.
MB, what’s the quote on Castro’s discipline?
The only pertinent question regarding simpson was how good wilken’s information was that another team coveted him. I think he was linked to the angels. If that’s the case, it’s not a bad pick. iirc they had tons of early picks, making it more likely that they would squeeze in a signability guy like Simpson. Not much sense in arguing it without the info that they had.
In any case, that’s what you get with an unorthodox scout running your draft: some overdrafts and some steals. I have said before that I’d rather have ryno running our draft with a 20 million dollar budget.
Why would you want Ryno over Wilkins? Wilkins has a fabulous track record.
me too md. the cubs know about improving his eye but arent trying to take away from his natural ability to put the bat on the ball.
[quote name=Doogolas]Why would you want Ryno over Wilkins? Wilkins has a fabulous track record.[/quote]
let’s not get carried away. also, have you seen ryno’s track record?
i think dooglas thinks your talking about Sandberg GW
[quote name=GW]let’s not get carried away. also, have you seen ryno’s track record?[/quote]You mean Ryne Sandberg? I’m pretty sure he’s never drafted anyone. Ever.
And I’m not getting carried away. Wilson has drafted:
Roy Halladay
Shannon Stewart
Vernon Wells
Billy Kotch
Those are all off the top of my head. In recent history from the Cubs he has brought:
Cashner
Colvin
Vitters
Jay Jackson
McNutt
In four years that’s five guys that have made top 100 prospect lists.
Those are all just off the top of my head. I’m quite certain there are more major leaguers and guys in the last few years he’s drafted that have made some nice prospect lists.
Yeah if you’re not talking about Sandberg, then I have no idea who you mean. So some clarification there would be good.
Screw Barney.
Chacin has a good fastball
cubs wont score tonight.
I’ll carry over from the last thread, but the only justification I can think of for picking Simpson was so the team could spend big money in later rounds. They passed on several players that would have been worth the investment so I don’t buy that. They then gave a buttload of money to Matt Szczur–a college player who is only in Low A a year after being drafted.
Wilken has had 5 years now to rebuild a farm system and it hasn’t happened. The team has made only two significant trades in those 5 years while trading some veterans themselves. The farm system ranked in the bottom third 5 years after he took over. You look at the team right now, the only position player on the roster that he drafted was Tyler Colvin. Starlin Castro was scouted and signed by someone else. Geovany Soto was drafted before Wilken.
5 years, 1 player and it’s a backup at that.
As for pitchers, there’s not a much better list of players there either. Jeff Samardzija is on the roster and he sucks. James Russell ditto. Casey Coleman could be a solid back of the rotation pitcher at some point. Andrew Cashner has the highest ceiling and there’s still a lot of question as whether he’s good enough to start. After that is Jay Jackson who wasn’t very good in AAA, Chris Carpenter, reliever, and Trey McNutt in AA.
The Cubs developed a lot more pitching talent with Stockstill as their Scouting Director than they have with Wilken. Not even close.
I may have given Wilken the benefit of the doubt early on, but not anymore. 5 years and the farm system is in the same shape as it was when he took it over. That would seem to be grounds for firing.
Nine pitch inning eh.
my point is not about ryno (commenter, btw) per say, its about someone like him with a bigger budget. someone with enough unique opinions on players, but who errs towards the consensus bpa. someone who is less prone to fall in love with indie prospects and overdrafts.
That’s pretty promising from Garza.
[quote name=GW]The only pertinent question regarding simpson was how good wilken’s information was that another team coveted him. I think he was linked to the angels. If that’s the case, it’s not a bad pick. iirc they had tons of early picks, making it more likely that they would squeeze in a signability guy like Simpson. Not much sense in arguing it without the info that they had.
In any case, that’s what you get with an unorthodox scout running your draft: some overdrafts and some steals. I have said before that I’d rather have ryno running our draft with a 20 million dollar budget.[/quote]I find it hard to believe. Simpson was absolutely shocked to find he had been picked higher than the 3rd or 4th round. He said teams were looking at him as 3rd, 4th or 5th rounder.
[quote name=GW]my point is not about ryno (commenter, btw) per say, its about someone like him with a bigger budget. someone with enough unique opinions on players, but who errs towards the consensus bpa. someone who is less prone to fall in love with indie prospects and overdrafts.[/quote]Agreed. I’d hire anyone that told me they were going to take best player available as long as bpa was a player people have heard of. Safe bet that bpa is not someone that literally nobody in the business had heard of.
[quote name=mb21]I find it hard to believe. Simpson was absolutely shocked to find he had been picked higher than the 3rd or 4th round. He said teams were looking at him as 3rd, 4th or 5th rounder.[/quote]
yes, i know you do. it’s definitely plausible with the angels, though.
btw, i agree with almost everything in comment #15
[quote name=dylanj]me too md. the cubs know about improving his eye but arent trying to take away from his natural ability to put the bat on the ball.[/quote]As long as it’s something they’re working on, that’s fine with me. I’m glad it was brought up. Castro reportedly makes adjustments as well as anyone in the game so we’ll see if he’s started to do so when he’s not hitting so well.
That 3-0 pitch was way high in the happy fun zone. I’m surprised CarGo didn’t swing at that.
that was a sick change up by Garza
i can see why Maddux was on Hendry to trade for Garza. Even though the results arent there yet this guy has some pretty wicked stuff.
We still gave up too much though
#idontlikeanything
Poor Orioles. Looks like the novelties worn off for them. They have faced some damn good teams lately though.
[quote name=GW]yes, i know you do. it’s definitely plausible with the angels, though.
btw, i agree with almost everything in comment #15[/quote]I think it’s plausible some team was considering him that early, but I still don’t see how it matters. If the opinion of most is that he’s a 3rd to 5th rounder, don’t you just let some other team sign him that early if they want to? It’s fine to want someone or like them a lot more than other teams, but I don’t see any reason why the Cubs should be the team to make the reach for him.
Yeah, that last inning by Garza was impressive.
its about time pena did some hitting
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Poor Orioles. Looks like the novelties worn off for them. They have faced some damn good teams lately though.[/quote]Are the Rangers still beating up on the Yankees?
[quote name=mb21]Are the Rangers still beating up on the Yankees?[/quote]Yeah, 5-1 in 5th.
It would be nice if the Cubs would keep things in the clubhouse like Byrd wants to: http://marlonbyrd.mlblogs.com/2011/04/16/415-what-happened-in-milwaukee/
Can’t help but like Marlon Byrd.
What’s the injury delay?
Huh. Pena just killed an ump with a foul ball?
carlos pena just murdered that guys leg
Nice hit by Soriano.
Carlos pena is not going to get along with the wrigley faithful. Can tell already
(dying laughing) @ first-pitch DP ball. Way to go, Colvin.
he isn’t getting along with me yet bubbles
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Carlos pena is not going to get along with the wrigley faithful. Can tell already[/quote]
I am one of the few that actually appreciate those 10-pitch ABs…too bad he can’t hit.
Iowa, Tennessee and Peoria rained out tonight.
[quote name=dylanj]he isn’t getting along with me yet bubbles[/quote](dying laughing)
WTF? Tulo has 7 HRs already? (dying laughing)
22 home runs for Tulo since September
As much as I liked Rudy’s comment about Castro, Quade’s comment scared me. I couldn’t tell if he was serious or not. I’m hoping not.
Ruh roh.
Brett Wallach did not have good control tonigth
[quote name=Rice Cube]I am one of the few that actually appreciate those 10-pitch ABs…too bad he can’t hit.[/quote]
I love them too. But one time it would be nice if he could hit a fucking double. Or a homerun
[quote name=mb21]As much as I liked Rudy’s comment about Castro, Quade’s comment scared me. I couldn’t tell if he was serious or not. I’m hoping not.[/quote]
Double or inside-the-park grand slam?
wow @ marlon Byrd
amazing
Well they did their best
so much fail
Scored a triple and an error on Castro.
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]Well they did their best[/quote]
When do they get orange slices?
What happened?
So barlon byrd just turned another single into a triple?
i still can’t believe byrd didnt get to that
Fucking Matt Garza
[quote name=dylanj]i still can’t believe byrd didnt get to that[/quote]
I think he took a bad route. He looked like he slowed down.
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]so much fail[/quote]What happened
Walk their replacement level hitter to face Carlos Gonzalez.
See what happens
byrd took a shitty route to a not so hard ball in CF. Instead of a SAC and being down 1-0 he missed the catch and its now 4-0
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_15_chnmlb_colmlb_1&mode=gameday
The video of that last failplay is up now.
im still pissed we lost Larry to the yankees
The Cubs fucking suck.
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_15_chnmlb_colmlb_1&mode=gameday
The video of that last failplay is up now.[/quote]I couldn’t tell is Byrd misjudged it or not from that angle. The Rockies announcers said he semi-misjudged it. Regardless, that was a hanging slider and Garza was lucky it didn’t leave the yard.
Can we get poem about how much Garza sucks ass?
[quote name=dylanj]im still pissed we lost Larry to the yankees[/quote]I’d feel a lot better about Garza if Rothschild was the pitching coach.
He is without question my least favorite Cub in history.
[quote name=Doogolas]Can we get poem about how much Garza sucks ass?[/quote]
A hanging slider
Out of the reach of the Byrd
Matt Garza sucks ass
[quote name=mb21]I couldn’t tell is Byrd misjudged it or not from that angle. The Rockies announcers said he semi-misjudged it. Regardless, that was a hanging slider and Garza was lucky it didn’t leave the yard.[/quote]
I think Byrd changed direction at least once on his way to the ball.
A better throw from Castro would’ve gotten the guy at third I thought.
Just got here. What’d I miss?
At least we’e made Chacine throw 31 pitches. *eyeroll*
[quote name=Mish]Just got here. What’d I miss?[/quote]http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_04_15_chnmlb_colmlb_1&mode=gameday
Boooooooooooooooooooo
That time it was a good play by Byrd.
I know Garza’s FIP is all sparkly, but he’s gotten hit harder than any Cubs starting pitcher so far this season and it’s not particularly close.
Thanks. Game day doesn’t work on an iPad, but thankfully I live in Chicago (dying laughing)
The Rockies color announcer was just talking about Wells and Cashner and he stated the obvious, which I don’t think the Cubs media has done just yet. They’re not throwing the ball for a couple week at which point it’s going to take 4 weeks to get back to the big leagues. No setbacks and it’s 6 weeks missed for each player. He then mentioned Ortiz would probably be up at some point. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Mish]Thanks. Game day doesn’t work on an iPad, but thankfully I live in Chicago (dying laughing)[/quote]Why doesn’t Gameday work on the ipad?
Darwin Barney got into some Kryptonite it seems.
Anyone think Pena will have a HR in April?
[quote name=Rice Cube]Darwin Barney got into some Kryptonite it seems.[/quote]
Well, he’s clearly no Sam Fuld…
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Anyone think Pena will have a HR in April?[/quote]
It would be nice if he were the May version of April Kosuke considering who we have coming up.
Pena got a hit?
[quote name=mb21]Why doesn’t Gameday work on the ipad?[/quote]
Because it runs in a plugin. I think he should shell out money for MLB AtBat app
[quote name=Horny Goat]Pena got a hit?[/quote]Savor it
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]Anyone think Pena will have a HR in April?[/quote]Before Charles Darwin Barney does? No chance..(dying laughing)
[quote name=cubsfan4life]Because it runs in a plugin. I think he should shell out money for MLB AtBat app[/quote]Isn’t that only $10 or something?
[quote name=mb21]Savor it[/quote]The best is yet to come?
[quote name=mb21]Savor it[/quote]
savoring on my DVR. Do.Not.Delete.
[quote name=cubsfan4life]Before Charles Darwin Barney Fife does? No chance..(dying laughing)[/quote].
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]The best is yet to come?[/quote]I certainly hope it is. I’d hate to think that I’m 36 years old and have seen the best Cubs baseball in my life. That’s despressing.
[quote name=mb21]Isn’t that only $10 or something?[/quote]
14.99 now..
On the upside, at least we aren’t the Red Sox.
[quote name=mb21]I certainly hope it is. I’d hate to think that I’m 36 years old and have seen the best Cubs baseball in my life. That’s despressing.[/quote]It is depressing. It’s very depressing to know that they will never win a WS. 103 years? Fuck this team.
I think the Rockies can rest all their regulars now.
[quote name=cubsfan4life]I think the Rockies can rest all their regulars now.[/quote]For the rest of the weekend?
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]It is depressing. It’s very depressing to know that they will never win a WS. 103 years? Fuck this team.[/quote]It’s only Year 2 though. Let’s see what happens (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]Isn’t that only $10 or something?[/quote]It’s $15 and it’s a rich app experience. But I bought it because I have MLB.tv so I can stream games to my iPad. As in just watched Kyle Farnsworth get a one out, three run save. (dying laughing)
[quote name=mb21]For the rest of the weekend?[/quote]That too, it just might work!
The thing that pisses me off more than anything so far is how good his FIP is. Even though his LD% is nearing 50%.
[quote name=Doogolas]On the upside, at least we aren’t the Red Sox.[/quote]
I’d take it if the Cubs were the red sox.
[quote name=Doogolas]The thing that pisses me off more than anything so far is how good his FIP is. Even though his LD% is nearing 50%.[/quote]
He has really good strikeout stuff, but he’s made enough mistakes that you kind of forget about the good.
[quote name=cubsfan4life]It’s only Year 2 though. Let’s see what happens (dying laughing)[/quote](dying laughing)
His FIP is managing to approach 0. But when you give up 25 liners per game, you still suck.
[quote name=Doogolas]His FIP is managing to approach 0. But when you give up 25 liners per game, you still suck.[/quote]
But it was the greatest trade in all Cubs history.
Can we call up BJax yet?
Yay, we’re hitting Soto 8th. Now his hits can be as useless as possible!
[quote name=Doogolas]His FIP is managing to approach 0. But when you give up 25 liners per game, you still suck.[/quote]
Good point, when you give up a gazillion hard hit liners your FIP can be -1000 and you still suck.
If I’m a pitching coach and there a sac bunt attempt early tell my guy to lob it.
Wow that strike was bS>
I read “The Book” re: pitcher bunts but I still feel like they might as well just swing away with one out.
wtf? at least try to hit the ball. jesus christ
That strike two just fucked us. PitchFX said that was the worst pitch of the entire AB. Both low and away.
This game is pissing me off.
[quote name=Doogolas]This Season is pissing me off.[/quote]
Fixed
[quote name=Doogolas]This franchise is pissing me off.[/quote]
fify
[quote name=Doogolas]This CENTURY OF FAIL is pissing me off.[/quote]
/emphasis’d
[quote name=Doogolas]This last 100 yearsis pissing me off.[/quote]
(dying laughing)
He’s missing high. He’s really lucky everything’s staying in the park.
[quote name=Doogolas]This life is pissing me off.[/quote]
…
[quote name=Rice Cube]He’s missing high. He’s really lucky everything’s staying in the park.[/quote]AFter he gives up 4 home runs in some games his FIP will look more like it should.
[quote name=Doogolas]This existence of time and space is pissing me off.[/quote] .
I guess what I’ve seen with Garza so far is that he makes a lot of good pitches, but when he misses, he’s really missed.
[quote name=Horny Goat]This Planet is pissing me off.[/quote]
***
I think Jackson will be sometime in June. He’ll play some RF and they’ll trade Byrd sometime in July to a contender. He’ll then take over CF.
It’s like the last 2 at-bats. 3-0 on Tulo and then the 3-1 pitch to him was perfect. 3-0 to Helton now. You’re going to get killed if you fall behind like this.
No way he should have scored on that
you know what pisses me off? a lotta people say Zambrano loses his concentration, gets frustrated, etc.. when in fact almost every pitcher does. They just all don’t wear it on their sleeve like Big Z does.
Line drive number 57 tonight.
[quote name=ZappBrannigan]No way he should have scored on that[/quote]Did Byrd take a few steps after he ran it down? I know Castro had a little trouble with it, but he wasn’t going to throw him out if he came up clean.
I think Byrd’s throw was a bit off the mark… if it had been a clean exchange they would’ve had a nice shot at him at home
The Cubs should sign Charlie Sheen for his #winning ways.
(dying laughing)Garza.
That was on Byrd too. The throw was too low. To get him Castro was gonna need a perfect throw near his head so he could immediately catch, crowhop and throw all in one motion.
Maybe if Garza didn’t suck it wouldn’t be an issue.
Yeah, that was a single that drove in a guy from 1st base. Helton moved to 2nd on the throw.
No worries. Barney will hit a 6-run home run here.
It must be nice to have a CF with range.
Yeah, if Fowler didn’t move in 2 steps that was a routine FB out.
[quote name=mb21]No worries. Barney will hit a 6-run home run here.[/quote]
This isn’t cricket, MB.
[quote name=Rice Cube]It must be nice to have a CF with range.[/quote]
Byrd was one of the best defensive CF in baseball last year.
Barney-Byrd
Worst 2-3 combo in baseball?
Another useless two out hit. Yay.
[quote name=Doogolas]Barney-Byrd
Worst 2-3 combo in baseball?[/quote]
Lineup construction fail.
I’m aware that Byrd was good in 2010. Last year was pretty much the best year of his career. I think you guys might call this year a “regression to the mean” or whatever you fancy math people say.
Actually last year was the worst year for him offensively in the last 3.
Byrd is a solid hitter, but he’s not a #3 hitter. Not even a little bit.
[quote name=Doogolas]Byrd was one of the best defensive CF in baseball last year.[/quote]
Yeah but one year samples aren’t great. Based on his career he’s about average. His metrics were as poor in 09 as they were good last year.
[quote name=Mish]Yeah but one year samples aren’t great. Based on his career he’s about average. His metrics were as poor in 09 as they were good last year.[/quote]
I just checked out the UZR numbers on FanGraphs, they kind of fly all over the place.
Well he did say he lost 5-10 pounds in preparation for playing CF every day.
It’d be nice if Pena would show some power. We are at Coors.
Yeah I don’t really know if that causes a 17 run swing in UZR
I think the point is that Byrd is a perfectly corpulent player but he’s probably not going to be as good as he was last year.
Corpulent? Fucking iPad. I wanted cromulent.
[quote name=Mish]I think the point is that Byrd is a perfectly corpulent player but he’s probably not going to be as good as he was last year.[/quote]
It would’ve been nice if the fire sale had included Byrd while he had surplus value, but that’s all in the past…
Neither do I. But I think it’s at least worth mention.
Given his contract though, he could and should definitely be moved.
Should the Cubs try to trade with the Twins? They seem to like trading their prospects for relievers.
[quote name=Mish]Given his contract though, he could and should definitely be moved.[/quote]
Don’t you think he needs to suck a bit more first so the Cubs fans won’t riot?
So good to know we have Garza to suck for us instead of Gorzo.
at least the Reds lost (dying laughing)
Also, the Red Sox are still worse than us.
Chacin is about to CGSHO us.
The Red Sox. Have a worse record, is as far as I’ll go. (dying laughing)
[quote name=Mish]The Red Sox. Have a worse record, is as far as I’ll go. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Mish —-> Yoda
Colvin is getting shifted?
Nah, the Red Sox have legitimately sucked. There is a reason they’re 2-10. They’ve been awful.
No I mean their true talent far exceeds the cubs.
this is not a way of life.
HG out, fuckfaces!
Cubs baseball is on the air.
Yay! Samardzija is in!
Samardzija was bodysnatched! This does not happen!
Nothing says throwing in the towel like putting Samardzija in
WTF Samardzija.
This is the most excited I’ve been all game.
Shark >>>>>>>>> Garza.
Samardzija owns.
How long until Garza is in the bullpen? Over/under June 1st?
I think CarGo helped him out a bit with that last strikeout, but still, very impressive.
I want Shark to finish the game and then start Tuesday. Not cause he’ll be good. But at least then I don’t have to see Russell.
Matt Garza & Marlon Byrd are not good at sports.
Darwin Barney is who Dennis Green thought he was.
Russell in the 8th. Maybe he won’t start.
Oh shit, he’s starting on Tuesday? No wonder my tickets were only a dollar.
Barney with the 16-run walk. SUPER.
Byrd with the first-pitch out. Nice.
I really am upset about Byrd hitting in the three spot. It’s just stupid on every level. Sabermetrics say it’s stupid. Traditional lineups say it’s stupid. It’s just so so so stupid.
[quote name=Doogolas]I really am upset about Byrd hitting in the three spot. It’s just stupid on every level. Sabermetrics say it’s stupid. Traditional lineups say it’s stupid. It’s just so so so stupid.[/quote]There are horny sailors in Thai whorehouses that are more patient than Marlon Byrd.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]There are horny sailors in Thai whorehouses that are more patient than Marlon Byrd.[/quote]
Dey pray for onry five dorrar!
Yes. There are. God he pisses me off so much. Why must he hit higher than Soto and Soriano?
James Russell = good LOOGY?
[quote name=Doogolas]Yes. There are. God he pisses me off so much. Why must he hit higher than Soto and Soriano?[/quote]Gamer. Done deal, sealed.
This game really isn’t as close at the score would indicate. (dying laughing)
[quote name=AndCounting]This game really isn’t as close at the score would indicate. (dying laughing)[/quote]
Garza only made one major mistake that Lady Luck couldn’t override. It could’ve been way worse though.
I really enjoyed the analysis of Tim Wilken earlier in the thread. I know there’s a lot of Ricketts haters out there, but I for one think he’s a smart guy who will do the right thing. And given the lack of studs the minor-league system has produced, I have to think Ricketts sees that and realizes what’s up.
It really is astounding that the team hasn’t produced a stud position player since, what, Mark Grace? Am I missing someone? (I’m not ready to put Castro in Cooperstown just yet.)
My own thought: Ricketts knows he’s new and was willing to let Hendry work for a year to see what happened (see what I did there?). But with the team struggling, and with Garza looking… unspectacular, I think this trade will be the proverbial last straw for Hendry.
I’m thinking Ricketts will bring in his own guy, and augment it with someone who will do statistical analysis (i.e., Ari Kaplan).
PS: What the hell is up with Colvin? He has completely regressed.
I wouldn’t trust Ricketts to build a prefab doghouse with the aid of the entire Ask This Old House crew. That slicked-headed huckster could fuck up a wet dream.
BTW, Ari Kaplan is a fucking joke. His statistical analysis is limited to meaningless samples defined by selective endpoints.
Ok, that’s funny. And I like funny.
/Fuck, Canucks just scored./
But I haven’t seen any reason to think he’s incompetent. I think he’s a smart guy who cares about the team. It’s easy to hate, but you can’t turn around a ship that big in a day.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]I wouldn’t trust Ricketts to build a prefab doghouse with the aid of the entire Ask This Old House crew. That slicked-headed huckster could fuck up a wet dream.[/quote]
Haven’t seen a reason? Then you haven’t been looking. This org has been stuck on stupid since Ricketts took control. It began with the refusal to trade Harden when they had the chance, and it continues to this very day.
Don’t look now, but Ramirez is off to one helluva start.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Don’t look now, but Ramirez is off to one helluva start.[/quote]
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Don’t look now, but Ramirez is off to one helluva start.[/quote]Yeah, he’s been right on the pitch in almost every AB I’ve seen from him this year. I’d love to see him stay healthy and have a big year in what is likely his last year as a Cub. Always been one of my favorite players.
What do yall think about trevor bauer? He has risen quite a bit. Higher than purke on lots of boards
[quote name=Joe Mama Besser]I really enjoyed the analysis of Tim Wilken earlier in the thread. I know there’s a lot of Ricketts haters out there, but I for one think he’s a smart guy who will do the right thing. And given the lack of studs the minor-league system has produced, I have to think Ricketts sees that and realizes what’s up.
It really is astounding that the team hasn’t produced a stud position player since, what, Mark Grace? Am I missing someone? (I’m not ready to put Castro in Cooperstown just yet.)
My own thought: Ricketts knows he’s new and was willing to let Hendry work for a year to see what happened (see what I did there?). But with the team struggling, and with Garza looking… unspectacular, I think this trade will be the proverbial last straw for Hendry.
I’m thinking Ricketts will bring in his own guy, and augment it with someone who will do statistical analysis (i.e., Ari Kaplan).
PS: What the hell is up with Colvin? He has completely regressed.[/quote]Geovany Soto says “Hi. I’m one of the three best hitting catchers in the MLB. Nice to meet you.”
And Castro, meanwhile, says “Yo. I’m pretty damn fly.”
Since Wilken has taken over, the system has gotten way better, way faster. But you are right, not much in the way of home grown studs in these parts.
Is ramirezs option team player or mutual
http://espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=310415127
Check out how few pitches the top of the order took. Chacin didn’t have to work very hard.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Is ramirezs option team player or mutual[/quote]Team option, bubbles. For $14M I believe with a $2M buyout if the Cubs don’t exercise the option.
[quote name=bubblesdachimp]Is ramirezs option team player or mutual[/quote]
I think it’s mutual bubbles. The team picks up its half, and then Ramirez has to agree to stay. If the team doesn’t pick up, it’s a $2MM buyout. If Ramirez decides to walk, I don’t think he’s owed a thing.
[quote name=cwolf]Team option, bubbles. For $14M I believe with a $2M buyout if the Cubs don’t exercise the option.[/quote]
cwolf is most likely right but I seem to recall reading that Rami can walk if he wants to test free agency.
Am I the only person that will be super sad to see Rammy go?
[quote name=Rice Cube]cwolf is most likely right but I seem to recall reading that Rami can walk if he wants to test free agency.[/quote]I just looked on Cot’s and it is a club option but for $16M. It also says Aramis can void the 2012 option but then the $2M buyout is waived. That seems kinda weird to me as it implies it almost is a mutual thing. I doubt Ramirez would turn the the $16M if the Cubs did want to exercise the option.
[quote name=Doogolas]Am I the only person that will be super sad to see Rammy go?[/quote]I’d be very sad also. But it’s probably going to happen.
[quote name=cwolf]I just looked on Cot’s and it is a club option but for $16M. It also says Aramis can void the 2012 option but then the $2M buyout is waived. That seems kinda weird to me as it implies it almost is a mutual thing. I doubt Ramirez would turn the the $16M if the Cubs did want to exercise the option.[/quote]
Maybe if his agent believed that he could get a 3 or 4 year deal for more total money than the $16M + a 2 or 3 year deal (or worse) after another year of aging, he would turn it down. But it would be awfully ballsy.
He might turn it down for 3 years 36 mil. Hopefully from us.
I love him. If he has a good year I wanna pick it up. We could always move him to first if vitters is ready and we fail on pujols or grimmace
I personally want no part of Pujols or fatty.
[quote name=Doogolas]He might turn it down for 3 years 36 mil. Hopefully from us.
[/quote]That might work and I wouldn’t mind seeing it. I wasn’t aware of that thing about him being able to void the option until I just checked Cot’s. Makes it seem like it really isn’t strictly a team option like I thought.
The Cubs have very few players under contract after 2012 – maybe just Soriano (but I didn’t look that closely) – so after next year this team is going to look a lot different than what we are used to. That is probably a good thing but I’m going to miss some of these players esp. Z and Ramirez.
[quote name=Doogolas]Am I the only person that will be super sad to see Rammy go?[/quote]Meh. He’s old and breaky. Love him, loved the deal, but let’s not Gaetti him. I’d rather see Marquez Smith or Vitters get a shot at the job. Let Rammy go quietly into that good night.
[quote name=cwolf]That might work and I wouldn’t mind seeing it. I wasn’t aware of that thing about him being able to void the option until I just checked Cot’s. Makes it seem like it really isn’t strictly a team option like I thought.
The Cubs have very few players under contract after 2012 – maybe just Soriano (but I didn’t look that closely) – so after next year this team is going to look a lot different than what we are used to. That is probably a good thing but I’m going to miss some of these players esp. Z and Ramirez.[/quote]
http://ivychat.blogspot.com/2011/04/cutting-spending.html
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]Meh. He’s old and breaky. Love him, loved the deal, but let’s not Gaetti him. I’d rather see Marquez Smith or Vitters get a shot at the job. Let Rammy go quietly into that good night.[/quote]I don’t know, MO. The breaky part is a real valid point and getting Smith and/or Vitters a shot is important for a team that most likely isn’t going to contend but I still wouldn’t mind a reasonable 3 year deal for Aramis. Probably reacting more with my heart than brain though. He’d be 36 at the end of a 3 year contract but I can still see him being a good hitter if (and I realize that’s a huge if) healthy. Gaetti was already 40 when the Cubs got him.
[quote name=Mercurial Outfielder]http://ivychat.blogspot.com/2011/04/cutting-spending.html[/quote]I read that when I saw your link earlier, MO. Well done and good stuff to think about although we also have to remember we (including Chuck who is pretty savvy about these things) don’t know the entire picture behind the Cub and Ricketts financials. In any event, I can’t see the payroll dropping so radically that the Cubs won’t be signing any fairly large contracts. If it does drop that drastically, it’s going to kill their attendance by putting out a non-contending team AND not having any star-type players.
[quote name=cwolf]I don’t know, MO. The breaky part is a real valid point and getting Smith and/or Vitters a shot is important for a team that most likely isn’t going to contend but I still wouldn’t mind a reasonable 3 year deal for Aramis. Probably reacting more with my heart than brain though. He’d be 36 at the end of a 3 year contract but I can still see him being a good hitter if (and I realize that’s a huge if) healthy. Gaetti was already 40 when the Cubs got him.[/quote]
If you could convince Rami to stay and play 1B (and this is assuming the Cubs cheap out and don’t snag Fielder or Pujols) I think that might be worthwhile.
[quote name=Rice Cube]If you could convince Rami to stay and play 1B (and this is assuming the Cubs cheap out and don’t snag Fielder or Pujols) I think that might be worthwhile.[/quote]It would be interesting to see, RC. Although we keep hearing Vitters might be the more likely candidate to play 1st. Maybe Aramis could just stay at 3rd – it’s not like he has any range to lose as he ages anyway. (dying laughing)
I’m thinking the issues raised in the link MO provided would affect going after Pujols or Fielder more than a Ramirez new deal (or other similar possibilities). Either of those guys is going to require a materially larger $$ commitment. But I really don’t have a clue what they will do.
See What Happens. (dying laughing)
I think a TV show about the inner workings of the Benny show and private lives of the cast would be more interesting than a movie. I would set the series in 1950 with jack getting ready for his first forays into television, while still being able to focus on his radio cast and show as well. I would have a disclaimer at the beginning that would state the show was based on the lives of Benny and his cast but some events would be time shifted for dramatic purposes. Story arcs focusing on Mary’s “Mike fright,” and “Mel Blanc’s nearly fatal auto accident would be great to have woven into the first couple of seasons, even though in reality Mel’s accident happened a decade later. The turmoil caused by Phil leaving the show, and cast reaction to Phil’s “drive by” 2 minute performances could be an ongoing undercurrent in the first few seasons. Stories about the writing sessions with the four writers and Jack could be fun, and the drama of deciding which of the radio writers and cast would make the jump into television and which folks wouldn’t make the cut could be entertaining.
Jae Hoon Ha is starting to intrigue me.
[quote name=AndCounting]This game really isn’t as close at the score would indicate. (dying laughing)[/quote]I know. Cubs 13, Rockies 5. Right?
[quote name=mb21]I know. Cubs 13, Rockies 5. Right?[/quote]
The Cubs kick ass in imaginary scores.
[quote name=Aisle424]The Cubs kick ass in imaginary scores.[/quote]they’re also 12-1 in the imaginary standings.
I just don’t understand how Koyie Hill with an iWAR of 11 can be on the bench. And don’t get me started on Samardzija with his iFIP of 1.12 being in the bullpen.
Does Ari Kaplan know nothing of imaginary numbers? What kind of mathmetician is he?
[quote name=mb21]they’re also 12-1 in the imaginary standings.[/quote]
They should be 13-0 if not for bad imaginary luck.
[quote name=Aisle424]They should be 13-0 if not for bad imaginary luck.[/quote]I am still very imaginary angry at that play that cost us the imaginary win.
[quote name=mb21]I am still very imaginary angry at that play that cost us the imaginary win.[/quote]
Fucking Zambrano! (Some things are the same in imaginary land)
[quote name=Aisle424]Fucking Zambrano! (Some things are the same in imaginary land)[/quote]That’s how you get confused between the two.
The imaginary Statue of Liberty is being put on real stamps. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-13101814
At least Garza didn’t give up any HRs
It’s only one game. We can still make the playoffs. We just have to get rid of the Lazy Latins Ramirez and Soriano and that head case Zambrano, then we’ll be fine.
BCB’d
Actually, if Garza keeps pitching how he has been, his FIP will remain very shiny. Even his xFIP is only 1.95 right now, because his FB% is in the low 20′s, everything is a line drive and ground ball. Which means he will continue to suck, but he’ll do so while his advanced stats say he is God.
[quote name=Doogolas]Actually, if Garza keeps pitching how he has been, his FIP will remain very shiny. Even his xFIP is only 1.95 right now, because his FB% is in the low 20′s, everything is a line drive and ground ball. Which means he will continue to suck, but he’ll do so while his advanced stats say he is God.[/quote]What does FIP mean? Is that the stat that basically measures how good a pitcher is based off what he can control like Ks, BBs, HRs, etc.?
[quote name=Berselius]At least Garza didn’t give up any HRs[/quote]
Is that you Al?
FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching
FIP = (13*HR + 3*(BB+HBP-IBB) – 2*K) / IP + constant
constant is equal to whatever it is so that the league average FIP is equal to the league average ERA. It’s usually around 3.2 or so.
[quote name=mb21]FIP = Fielding Independent Pitching
FIP = (13*HR + 3*(BB+HBP-IBB) – 2*K) / IP + constant
constant is equal to whatever it is so that the league average FIP is equal to the league average ERA. It’s usually around 3.2 or so.[/quote]So basically, he’s really good at striking out and not giving up walks or HRs but is unlucky? Does he have a high babip?
new thread up: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/matt-garza-is-not-this-bad-or-this-good.html
[quote name=Muck Muckintuck]So basically, he’s really good at striking out and not giving up walks or HRs but is unlucky? Does he have a high babip?[/quote]See the new thread. I had started to write that last night, but didn’t get it finished until just now.