I was working on an idea for a post using the 2013 Cubs projections. The idea was to calculate an approximation of the best case scenario win total. I was going to use the 65th percentile projection for every player just for fun. I'll finish that before the season, but as I was getting the position player projections into a spreadsheet of their own, I noticed four players that I think could potentially make the 2013 Cubs a contender if they perform better than expected.
There are, of course, several players who could perform better, but I limited it to guys that I thought had a chance to be at least 30 points of wOBA better than their CAIRO projection. I'm not saying I think they will. I'm just saying they have the skills to do it.
The four most likely
Those four players are Anthony Rizzo, Brett Jackson, Alfonso Soriano and Ian Stewart. Their projected wOBA's are, respectively, .348, .329, .319 and .304.
For those wondering why I did not include Starlin Castro, his projected wOBA is .328 and his actual wOBA in each of the three seasons he's played was .329, .338 and .323. Castro is a valuable player, but he has over 1900 plate appearances at this point in his career. We know what kind of hitter Castro is and will likely be. Among SS, he'll be a good hitter even when he has a down season. I don't think he's a very good candidate to finish the season with a wOBA higher .358. He's not shown nearly that ability to this point in his career.
Anthony Rizzo's .348 projected wOBA is tops on the Cubs, which kind of tells you how poorly the projections think of this offense. Rizzo's wOBA last year, despite getting off a ridiculously good start, was only .349. He's probably as good a candidate to regress from that figure as he is to do as well as I think he might.
Against righties, Rizzo had a .386 wOBA last season. He was terrible against lefties (.260). He also had a .405 wOBA last year after his first month plus (played just a game or two in June). The league adjusted and his numbers declined significantly. We did see signs of him adjusting in September as he posted a wOBA of .363.
If Rizzo can hit lefties a lot better than he has to this point in his career and make adjustments, there's a good chance his season ending wOBA will be near .380. Maybe even higher.
Factoring in his above average defense, and his age, the Cubs would have themselves an elite first basemen for the next several years if this happens. If he only reaches his projections, he'll be slightly better than the league average 1st baseman.
Brett Jackson has hit everywhere he's been in the minor leagues. His worst season offensively was last year at AAA and he was still better than league average (107 wRC+). He played a half season in AAA the year before and had a .400 wOBA (128 wRC+) so we know he can hit AAA pitching even better than last year. He was drafted in the 1st round in 2009 and as soon as he signed, he started hitting.
He's been a very good hitter throughout his career and even flashed superstar talent at the plate in High A in 2010. Mostly, he's just been a whole lot better than league average and I'm far from convinced that won't be true at the MLB level.
Last year when the Cubs acquired Anthony Rizzo, every Cubs fan was excited about his future and for good reason. Like Jackson, Rizzo had hit at every level with the exception of his cup of coffee at the big leagues in 2011. Speaking of that, he performed much more poorly than Brett Jackson did.
Rizzo had 153 PA in 2011 and posted a .248 wOBA (59 wRC+). Jackson had 142 PA last year and his wOBA was .292 (77 wRC+). Granted, Jackson does have a huge flaw in his game that could prevent him from having any success. His strikeout rate at the big league level was higher than your average BBWAA member can count. You couldn't count at on all 8 hands.
Jackson is going to strikeout. People need to get that through their heads. This isn't a guy who is going to be a contact hitter. He's probably going to strikeout more than 25% of the time in his career.
He can hit for power, has some speed and plays average or better defense. He's also presumably a decent baserunner, but we don't have much of a sample. Jackson only had 19 PA vs lefties and performed poorly. Like Rizzo again, if Jackson can be better against lefties and cut down on the strikeout rate to a more manageable level, he's a very good candidate to be significantly better than projected.
Since 2009, Soriano has been on the bad year, good year plan. He was pretty bad at the plate in both 2009 and 2011 and his wOBA in the even years was .352 and .350. His projected wOBA of .319 is better than his recent odd years, but not nearly as good as even year performance. Soriano can still hit. He's not a great hitter and never was, but he can still be better than league average and, more importantly, a productive hitter.
In Soriano's first year with the Cubs, he had 617 plate appearances. He had been in the low 500s following that until he had 614 last year. He was relatively healthy and he performed well. He looked like a different player on defense, his legs seemed to feel better than they had since he put on a Cubs uniform. At times he looked awfully old, but at other times he even looked young.
I wouldn't bet any money on Soriano beating his projection, but I think he's got a decent chance to hit in the .350s, which would be significantly better than projected.
In 2003, Ian Stewart was picked in the 1st round by the Rockies (10th overall). After posting a .959 OPS in rookie league at the age of 18, Baseball America ranked him the top Rockies prospect, as well as ranking him 57th best in baseball.
The future only looked brighter for Stewart after the 2004 season in which he hit .319/.398/.594 in A ball at the age of 19. Baseball America rewarded him by ranking him the 4th best prospect in baseball. Only Joe Mauer, Felix Hernandez and Delmon Young were ranked higher in 2005.
Colorado hasn't had a hitter like Stewart in its system since Helton. Stewart punishes good fastballs and has the strength and hand speed to wait back and drive offspeed stuff. He has good plate coverage and learned to use the whole field during the season. He adjusted when SAL pitchers began throwing him junk, and did damage at both Asheville's cozy McCormick Field (.621 slugging percentage) and on the road (.568). Stewart has average speed, and he's a savvy and aggressive baserunner. While he fell short of his goal of a 30-30 season, he did steal 19 bases in 28 attempts. Defensively, he has an above-average arm. Along with his tools, Stewart has strong desire. He wants to be an all-star and a Gold Glove third baseman, and he's willing to do what it takes to get there. The Rockies rave about his work ethic and focus on team goals.
Stewart remained in Baseball America's top 50 propects each each year through 2008. He never fell off the map by performing poorly, but his OPS's the next three years in the low to mid .800s forced us to drop the high expectations earlier in his career.
His first three years a the big league level he had respectable wOBA's. The wRC+ was better than league average in his rookie season, but slightly below the following two years. He then hurt his wrist in 2011 and was horrible in nearly 150 plate appearances. He wasn't too good for the Cubs last season either.
He's now had surgery to fix the wrist and is reportedly healthy. We could easily see Stewart return to the .330-.340ish wOBA we saw before the injury. There's also the possibility of him even being better than that. He's always had tremendous talent and is an example of a highly ranked prospect who simply did not work out. Maybe the Cubs could get lucky.
It's important to point out once more that I'm not predicting these guys will do that much better than expected. I'd bet against all of them, but I think they are the four position players most likely to perform significantly better than the projections.
If I was going to create a list of the four most likely position players to perform significantly worse than expected, that list would feature Alfonso Soriano (age-related decline), Brett Jackson (maybe he strikes out even more) and Ian Stewart (over the last two years he's been downright awful).
Comments
iBerselius wrote:
You should take off that weekend and come with! I had no idea there was an EPL match at Wrigley that weekend, but that nice Craigslist poster said he had several more tickets left. And only 10 pounds each! Although I had no idea that converted to $500 American, but that’s what he said. Thanks Obama!
GBTSQuote Reply
Also, I never knew EPL tickets were printed on crackers.
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS, Kaepernick read the cover-0 blitz and audibled out of the fourth-down play call (which makes me think it was a read option). He tapped the back of his helmet, indicating he wanted a back-shoulder fade to Crabtree. The problem is that BAL knew what the tap meant.
The rule about catching and going to the ground is way more stupid than the punt-safety-endzone rule and they never changed that. I doubt they change this one. I’m just surprised they weren’t going for the block, in which case they could have gotten to the punter much sooner…especially since he had no intention of punting. Hell, they might have even been able to strip the ball.
The bottom line for me is SF was really outcoached in the first have and the last two minutes. I think Jim will learn from it, though.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
I didn’t notice the audible. That makes me feel much better.
Also, why do you think Aaron had to be born again in the season six purgatory? Does he go to heaven as a baby? He presumably lived a long, normal life off the island, that would suck for him.
/2010’d
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Spoiler alert, I guess. (dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
GBTS wrote:
Oh, so it’s iBerselius now.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Note to authors: I actually read this article. More pre-season bright side, please.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
He was purchased by Apple.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
YOU WILL BE ASSIMILATED
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
It made me feel better too. Kaepernick has always checked into the right plays, and he did so on that play. If BAL hadn’t known the signal, the play probably would have worked. If BAL hadn’t held Crabtree, the play probably would have worked.
As an aside, it’s been a long time since I haven’t been envious of any QB situation. Factoring age, contract, current ability, projection, intelligence and schemability, there aren’t many QBs I’d take over Kaepernick.
And I assumed Aaron was more of a prop in the purgatory than an actual presence…unless he died as an infant.
RynoQuote Reply
I never follow the draft closely enough to want specific players, but my lists boiled down to
Want:
2009-2012: Offensive Linemen
Got:
2009: Raji + Matthews – that worked out nicely
2010: Bulaga
2011: Sherrod – neither of these two have been particularly impressve
2012: Perry – injured wrist in first game, finally put on IR in early Nov
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Are they working Sherrod at G? I thought Marshall Newhouse took a step forward at T this year. Is Bulaga still at RT?
I think part of GB’s problem on the OL was scheme. They use quick passes to set up runs and deep shots, and they’re built accordingly. I think their issue is when Rodgers doesn’t have his quick passes available, he sits back in the pocket and waits for something to open up.
Of course, I watched like one GB game this year, so I might be way off.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
Newhouse made a step up from terrible to kind of competent. He’s not really a building block though. Bulaga got hurt late in the year but has just been kind of average. Which certainly has value, but he’s not really a world-beater.
They moved Sherrod to guard last season, but IIRC he played some tackle this year due to injuries on the OL. (EDIT: he broke his leg and missed the entire 2012 season. Shows how much I pay attention (dying laughing) )
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
This is what Pro Football Focus says about the GB line:
That sounds like kind of what I was thinking. They’re good pass protectors that give up sacks because Rodgers tries to make something happen on every play.
I’ll tell you that their offensive scheme reminds me a lot of what Texas did with Colt McCoy. It’s hard to get a push up front in that type of system.
In other words, I wouldn’t expect much change from that line no matter who’s in it.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
I guess the next priority for GB would probably be ILB then. Who should be available when GB picks?
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Ogeltree might be. He’s suppossedly the best ILB in the draft. I wouldn’t mind him being Urlacher’s replacement.
MuckerQuote Reply
Peasants! Arst thou conversing?
Aisle424Quote Reply
I’ve never liked the 49ers, but I liked Jim Harbaugh, I thought they were the most talented team all season, and I REALLY did not want Ray Lewis to win another fucking Super Bowl. So I rooted for them and now I may not ever forgive them for letting the Ravens win.
What the hell is it about Joe Flacco that makes secondaries completely forget everything they ever knew about playing football?
That pass to Jones never should have been completed it hung up there for so long and THEN THEY DIDN’T EVEN FUCKING TOUCH HIM WHILE HE WAS DOWN. WHAT THE FUCKING FUCK? Combined with that bullshit play at the end of the Denver game where all of their safeties apparently died of heart attacks or something, I still can’t fucking believe the Ravens won.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Mucker:
Ogletree is an interesting player that might be there with the first pick. He’s a little small to play ILB in a 3-4 scheme, though. He’s more of a 4-3 SAM right now. He could add weight and be a playmaker.
3-4 ILB is like the RB of defense in terms of positional value. SF took Patrick Willis high, but Bowman was a third rounder. Kevin Minter is a guy I’d like in a 3-4, and you could get him in the mid second probably.
RynoQuote Reply
Chris Carpenter —-> can’t pitch, can retire.
MishQuote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Flacco was using some kind of voodoo curse in the playoffs. Chris Culliver seemed very concerned that someone would think he’s gay if he got too close to any BAL WR.
Not sure why the defense was so schizo during the playoffs. The first halves against ATL and BAL the defense yielded like 45 points. The second halves, it was 13…total. And 7 of those were on the BAL kick return.
1st
SF – 20
Opp – 45
2nd
SF – 39
Opp – 13
If they can learn how to start the game on time next year, they might have a shot.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno wrote:
(dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Probably more likely to be
Chris Carpenter ———–> can’t pitch, will retire after receiving $12.5m for sitting on the DL for 2013
BerseliusQuote Reply
what is this I don’t even
(L to R: Upton, Longoria, Phillips, Stanton, Victorino)
MishQuote Reply
Call me crazy, but I think Jackson will hit .250/.330/.440 or thereabouts this year. I don’t have a good reason to think so (MLE puts him at .216/.287/.381 with 240 K from AAA numbers). I just think that Brett Jackson inability to make contact isn’t as huge a problem as people make it out to be. He has plate discipline and power that opposing pitchers will have to respect. If people throw him junk, he’ll take a walk. If he makes contact with it, he’ll hit it a long way, so people aren’t laying him meatballs. He’s got a skillset that has a fairly high floor (and a low upside), in my opinion. He can also play defense, fwiw.
MylesQuote Reply
Chris Culliver getting clowned all game was the height of karmic justice.
For a second, I thought you were starting 2010 Tim Jennings.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
You’re taking the loss a lot better than I would if I was an actual fan of the 49ers. I’m all pissed off and I don’t even like them. If the Bears had lost like that I probably wouldn’t even be capable of being rational.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Mish:
Were any of those guys even alive when DEVO was big?
uncle daveQuote Reply
Aisle424 ——–> adopting a new dog (probably)
We meet him tomorrow and unless he eats our faces off or something, we’ll be taking him home.
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I thought BAL would win the entire two weeks. SF was the better team, but BAL was playing their best football and seemed unable to lose (the end of the DEN game comes to mind). I don’t believe in destiny, but it sure seemed like someone wanted BAL to win the Super Bowl this year.
I spent the last two weeks rationalizing defeat. It’s not a failed season to “just” win the NFC and find your starting QB for the next decade. They overcame a lot in that game to make it entertaining, and I think they showed the world how good they are (except when they sleepwalk through the entire first half).
That game wasn’t called fairly, but I think it was close enough. The bottom line is that we had the game where we wanted it with two minutes to go and didn’t execute. It sucks and it hurts, but I’m more upset for Frank Gore. I really wanted to see him score the game winning TD.
RynoQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Or it’s the result of starting a college S at CB. I’d like to see SF draft a corner in the first two rounds and move Culliver to S, where I think he belongs.
RynoQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
Victorino is 30 something, so he’s the only one. The others were either WAY young (Longoria?) or not born. Tho IDK when exactly Devo’s peak was.
MishQuote Reply
Other than Gore, the main reason I’m upset about the loss is my own expectations. When SF got the ball back with 4 minutes to go, I had no doubt they’d score. I was only concerned that they’d score too quickly. The thought of them not scoring didn’t even enter my mind until the failed 3rd down play.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Mish:
No way is Victorino old enough.
Devo came on the scene when I was in high school, so you can imagine how long ago that was.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
It says Devo has been around since 1972 so Holy Shit are you old!!! (dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
Also, that link I posted in the last thread that you probably ignored, about the Lee Elia of rock and roll, was a recording of Reg Presley and his band the Troggs, having a discussion in the studio.
Presley, the singer of “Wild Thing”, died yesterday.
His obit is …
groovypretty good readin’http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/obituaries/culture-obituaries/music-obituaries/9849602/Reg-Presley.html
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Whip It was early 80s as I seem to remember it when I was in grade school. There was a rumor at my college in the early 90s that a member of Devo had gone there, and they were already long enough gone from the scene that it sounded believable enough to pass on without verification. I think it ended up being a false rumor, but I’ve never checked into it with my Google machine.
So most players who were old enough to remember Devo in any way from their actual height of popularity would have to be almost 40 years old.
Aisle424Quote Reply
I guess Whip It is from 1980. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whip_It_(Devo_song)
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
Whip It was their big hit, IIRC, on MTV.
Their first album (and possible more) was before MTV started though, which is too bad because they were probably better at making videos than music.
Although at least one of them went on to make music for Nickelodeon shows in the 90s, most famously Rugrats I believe.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
They pre-date the phonograph? Wow.
Nah honestly I know nothing about Devo.
MishQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
OK, that’s not right. At least, they didn’t make a record and become known until around ’78.
/slowly turning into dust
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I don’t find anything about any of the members attending North Park, so I guess that rumor was false. Looks like the founding members all went to Kent State.
Aisle424Quote Reply
So apparently the 49ers third-string QB went to my high school, a couple years youngers. Also went to UW. Forget the name.
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
Tolzien.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
(dying laughing) I was joshing you. I think it’s great that we have somebody around that was actually a witness to the ’69 season.
MuckerQuote Reply
Now the dude from Devo draws silly drawings on my kid’s favorite kid’s show. *Sigh*
Just kidding, I was one when “Whip It” came out, you old fucks!
joshQuote Reply
Ryno wrote:
/Berman’d
GBTSQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Has anyone noticed Berman talks so much and so fast that he has to take long pauses to regain his breath?
MuckerQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
I might actually tune into the HR Derby if Berman wasn’t announcing it.
WaLiQuote Reply
Ryno wrote:
So you’re really excited about Cubs baseball huh
JonKneeVQuote Reply
devo is the shit. “q: are we not men? a: we are devo!” is a great album. check out “uncontrollable urge” on youtube or something for a semi-representative hit off of that album. i would argue that devo’s career extended long past the release of “whip it”. their next album featured a few songs that made it onto the “doctor detroit” experiment, which is a good movie despite the fact that post-“crossroads” dan akroyd is a complete travesty.
they broke up for a while but have reunited multiple times and released a new album a few years back, after which they went on tour (i saw ’em. excellent show.)
also, i don’t know what the nickelodeon show being referenced above is but frontman mark mothersbaugh has had a bunch of side projects including composing music for pee wee’s playhouse and scoring a bunch of wes anderson movies, both of which are pretty badass side projects.
this will be the most i will ever contribute to the discussion at OV.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Mish wrote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L09qnRfZY-k
GBTSQuote Reply
Lendy Castillo ——–> cleared waivers ——–> Iowa
Aisle424Quote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I enjoyed Uncontrollable Urge and Satisfaction, but that’s about it. They were original, I got to give them that.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
That season was a kick to my Dad’s crotch.
It was Season One for me, so it prepared me well for a lifetime of kickings.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
My dad still talks about it and to this day still hates the Mets. (For reasons I’m not really sure about. I think it has to do with the fact that they went like 23-4 in the last month and beat the Cubs out of the division.)
MuckerQuote Reply
Wonder how much money the Cubs are getting for this: http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130205&content_id=41417438&vkey=news_chc&c_id=chc
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Aisle424:
I was so worried he would get away.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I just skimmed it quickly, how are they fixing the football issues they had with, you know, a brick wall in the end zone? Or are they just going to use it for non-football only?
GBTSQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Is that the NU thing? (not NW).
I don’t get how playing in Wrigley once or twice a year is going to cause the best high school football players to want to go there instead of more dominant football school. Crane Kenney seems to be making shit up on that one.
Playing a football game in Wrigley would be a thrill for a Cubs fan, but that’s about it. Players from around the country aren’t going to give a shit about playing a couple games in an old baseball park.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
I thought it said 5 football games plus other sporting events. No idea how they’re going to fix that issue. I’m sure they’ll get ready for another game and then complain that Wrigley isn’t big enough. Not their fault! (dying laughing)
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
It will be a big game each year and nationally televised. I’m not sure how much that benefits the Big Ten these days considering the Big Ten Network, but it can’t hurt.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Probably just a cut of ticket prices and concessions, I would think.
They also get to use NU training facilities, but big whoop?
Suburban kidQuote Reply
I would assume hockey would be the other sport since it’s cold as shit in the winter and I doubt they want to play basketball in that weather.
dmick89Quote Reply
Devo SucksQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
Via a bunch of reading (mostly Bleacher Nation) it seems that the Cubs have permission to rip out a few seats and the brick walls around the dugouts to accommodate a football field so they don’t have the one-end-zone fiasco.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
They have to be getting some money for this. Not just concessions.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
I don’t know how much it’d take to make it worth the Cubs’ while though. Especially since you know that football and other baseball games are going to tear up the field a bunch too. Groundscrew is probably gonna be pissed.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
It would be a real slap in the face to their other loyal B1G 10 university customers if they let Northwestern into the stadium for cheap.
GBTSQuote Reply
If it’s regularly NU and Illinois, I don’t give a shit. I don’t really care, but I do know some Hawkeyes fans would be pissed if the Hawkeyes are playing there (harder to get tickets).
dmick89Quote Reply
http://espn.go.com/chicago/college-football/story/_/id/8917541/northwestern-wildcats-play-five-games-wrigley-field
GBTSQuote Reply
Half of a thread covers the history of Devo and I miss the conversation? That don’t seem right.
uncle daveQuote Reply
dmick89 wrote:
Sadly, either of those teams will probably have one of their best days at the gate by moving a game to Wrigley…
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Agreed that Akroyd has been a complete disaster since sobering up, but I still have a soft spot for “Doctor Detroit.” Any movie with James Brown is solid in my book (including, oddly enough, “Rocky IV”).
uncle daveQuote Reply
@ GBTS:
IT’S GONNA HAPPEN
Rice CubeQuote Reply
josh wrote:
I wasn’t even born yet.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
And despite my relative youth, I’m right now watching a movie that came out in 1920.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/ryan-braun-s-name-listed-in-biogenesis-clinic-records-235650670.html
Braun’s response:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8919375/ryan-braun-admits-consulting-anthony-bosch-appeal-positive-ped-test
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ uncle dave:
oh maybe i was unclear. i was trying to say that akroyd has royally sucked for a while but used to be cool in his doctor detroit days. i flippantly called the end of his career to be the release of “crossroads” (co-starring brittney spears) but after reviewing his imdb page, it should really be in 1997 (sometime during the filming of “grosse pointe blank”.)
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
Shouldn’t the 49ers be able to trade Alex Smith for a corner or more? Smith could probably be a major QB upgrade on at least 15 teams. I’d think with that commodity, plus a draft coming up, SF really ought to be able to cement a dynasty.
SVBQuote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I endorse this theory.
uncle daveQuote Reply
Just an announcement: I’m flying to Houston tonight and will be on vacation until the 13th. My posting will be sporadic.
If you are dying to get my AtP for 3B: let me just summarize (and I’ll have a real post later):
Stewart hasn’t been good since, like 2008.
Valbuena is a good backup and shouldn’t start.
Vitters is probably broken: maybe he’ll be like Denard Span but probably more like Eric Patterson
Hernandez (Diory) is a nobody.
Cerda was stolen by the Cardinals (fuck the Cardinals).
Harrington can’t hit to crack above AAA.
Villaneuva is still a solid prospect, but needs to breakout this year and bust into AA or higher.
Darvill has never OPS’ed above .700. A plus glove only gets you so far.
Geiger is a non-prospect.
Candelario and Bruno are both pretty good prospects. Candelario is the better bat, Bruno is the better glove. Candyman needs to stick at 3B to be useful and Bruno needs just to climb the ladder.
Carhart’s an old man who was drafted in 2012. He’s got to move quickly to be a factor but did what he was supposed to last year.
MylesQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Have fun.
dmick89Quote Reply
*waits for oblique digs against Soriano in the media for not showing up 3 weeks early for spring training*
BerseliusQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
Enjoy this stupidly warm weather.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ SVB:
Charlie Casserly said he thought SF could get a 2+ for him. I thought that was a little optimistic. Adam Schefter said today he thought they could get a conditional 4 for him, which I think is closer.
ARI, CLE and KC would be great fits for him. Pipe dream, I know, but I’d love to see what we’d have to send along with him to NYJ for Revis.
SF currently has 14 picks in the 2013 draft. Adding what they get for Smith, and I’d love to see them move up in the first to get a 5-tech. This is a deep draft for DBs, so they can get what they need later.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
14 draft picks… that seems like a lot.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
It’s all relative.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
How does that compare to most teams?
WaLiQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
SF has 11 before comp picks are handed out. The next highest team has 9. IND has 4.
RynoQuote Reply
As of right now, it looks like we’ll have a 1, a 2, two 3s, two 4s, two 5s, two 6s and four 7s.
Picks by team: http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/2013/nfl_draft_order_full.cfm
Projected comps: http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/
SEA really screwed GB by starting Wilson over Flynn. (dying laughing)
RynoQuote Reply
Todd Helton —> DUI (i.e not a grave crime such as taking drugs to hit a ball farther)
MishQuote Reply
Hmm, well now I don’t know.
HOU gave up two 2s and swapped 1s for Schaub six years ago.
KC gave up a 2 for Cassel four years ago.
SEA gave up a 3 and swapped 2s (a 20 spot jump) for Charlie fucking Whitehurst three years ago (dying laughing).
PHI gave up Rodgers-Cromartie and a 2 for Kolb two years ago.
Hell, WAS gave up a 2 and a 4 for McNabb three years ago.
OAK gave up a 1 and a conditional 2 for Palmer 18 months ago, but that doesn’t count because it’s OAK.
So maybe I was wrong to think SF won’t get at least a 2 for Smith in a QB-starved market/draft with 3-5 needy teams.
RynoQuote Reply
I’d love to get KC’s or CLE’s 2 or add a couple of picks for Revis.
RynoQuote Reply
Don’t you guys miss the days when I would hijack threads with a bunch of shit no one cares about?
RynoQuote Reply
No. Welcome back, Ryno.
MishQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
We need more forestgif.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Corey Patterson ——> Mets (AAA)
In related news: Corey Patterson still exists, plays baseball
WenningtonsGorillaCockQuote Reply
@ Mish:
You say that now, but it’s only been a few days…
RynoQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I searched for a forest gif online, and only found this:
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno wrote:
Wisconsin fans are cool with it thanks to the Russell Wilson UW connection (dying laughing)
BerseliusQuote Reply
Ryno wrote:
Please confine yourself to discussions of cast iron cookware or Devo. These discussions are the blog’s sole purpose.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Say RC, that one guy defending Todd Helton on WSD’s wall is pretty hilarious…ly awful.
MishQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
I was planning to stick to the 49ers, the NFL Draft and the best ways to flavor meat with smoke.
RynoQuote Reply
Ryno wrote:
This is a topic I recently enjoyed.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Ryno wrote:
Same here, but remove the words “flavor meat with”. (dying laughing) (dying coughing)
MishQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
You have missed out on a lot recently including cast iron skillets, board games, beer, cutlery, and iProducts.
I just wish dmick would talk about Restaurants Above Replacement again.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
Also, we haven’t been making fun of Alvin as much without you. We will all go without dinner for 2 weeks for such crimes.
JonKneeVQuote Reply
@ Mish:
He’s got some priority issues I guess.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
JonKneeV wrote:
I think he is too busy trying to make this blog into the most optimistic Cubs blog out there.
WaLiQuote Reply
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Man am I glad to finally be out of the office. I was beginning to feel like this guy.
SVBQuote Reply
where’s all the pizza hut milf’s at?
dylanjQuote Reply
@ dylanj:
Watching alien porn.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ dylanj:
Hey…I remember you…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
oh i’ll be back once the minors get under way. for now im just crying over the SB
dylanjQuote Reply
Has anyone heard that story about that Lutheran preschool in California? W.T.F.
WaLiQuote Reply
(dying laughing) @ Anthony Adams
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
Yeah…that was definitely a strange one.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I wish I could go back to that innocent time five minutes ago before I Googled that story.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
This morning’s playlist at the gas station: “I always feel like somebody’s watching me” by Rockwell the 1 hit wonder, followed by Mrs. Robinson. That’s strange enough on its own, except I live in Puerto Rico. (dying laughing)
SVBQuote Reply
@ dylanj:
I have posted many reactions to the Super Bowl, which I will not repeat. It’s on you to read every word.
I’ll have my mock off-season for you shortly…
RynoQuote Reply
Micah Owings ————-> 1B (?!?)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ SVB:
A nation turns its lonely eyes to you, you jackass (for getting that stuck in my head). (dying laughing)
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
i just went back and looked up his batting stats. i remember him being a hell of a lot better than he actually was. maybe the nats FO had the same falsely inflated memory of his prowess and was too lazy to check bbref.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
That story is fucked up. I’ve only read a little bit about it, but how do these kids even know what to do? It’s hard for me to believe that the teachers weren’t somehow involved in this. Based on what I’ve read, that doesn’t seem to be the case.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Well, his career 104 wRC+ is quite impressive, though it’s only over 219 PA, so we have to regress it. I’m not optimistic about his chances at 1B, but I look forward to seeing the results (Ankiel made it to the majors and he didn’t hit as well as a pitcher.)
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
My main reason for being skeptical is that I find it very unlikely that Owings learns plate discipline at this stage in his career, and you need it to stick at 1B.
Rizzo the RatQuote Reply
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I agree. I’d be surprised if Owings sticks at the MLB level at a position that demands a lot of offense. Owing was a great hitter for a pitcher, but not so great overall. More practice and regular playing time in that role could improve him, but at the same time, pitchers will be able to see more of him and understand his weaknesses better.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Agreed. At least Ankiel could play a decent CF so he had some value even though he didn’t hit a ton. Unless Owings is Keith Hernandez redeux at 1B, I don’t really understand the signing.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
Yeah. How can little kids even know what to do? The one incident with the drawing – okay that doesn’t seem like a big deal. Kids draw on everything. But the other incident with the actual act is just weird. It almost seems made up, but who would make up such a thing.
WaLiQuote Reply
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/07/curt-schilling-says-red-sox-officials-encouraged-him-to-use-peds-in-2008/
^^^ Might be a thing. I’m guessing it wouldn’t be Theo, but I’m only saying that on hope, i guess. Would be a very serious accusation.
MishQuote Reply
Trade
Alex Smith to KC/CLE for a 2014 2
Gone
Akers
Haralson
Moss
Ginn
FA to pursue
Leodis McKelvin
Anthony Spencer
Jairus Byrd
Kenny Phillips
Trade
CAR’s 3(12) and our 1(31) to CHI for 1(20)
A 5 and a 4 for a higher 4
Two 7s and a 6 for a late 5
1. Jesse Williams, DT, Ala. – Exactly what the defense needs. Strong and stout enough to hold the point of attack and athletic enough to rush the passer. He can play NT or 5-tech in our base 3-4 or play 0-3 tech in our nickel. Land Williams, and I say it’s a successful draft.
2. Leon McFadden, CB, SDSU – Quickly rising and could end up being one of the top CBs out of this draft. I also like Rutgers CB Logan Ryan here if he shows hip fluidity at the combine.
3. Bacarri Rambo, S, Ga. – The most 49ersesque safety available in the draft. Will need to improve coverage skills, but should force Whitner out by the end of the year.
4. Bennie Logan, DT, LSU – We MUST get more push from the front three. Depth at 5-tech is essential, and I like Logan’s potential here.
4. Stepfan Tayler, RB, Stan. – Frank Gore has to be close to running out of gas. I don’t know if Kendall Hunter is Gore enough to be the bellcow, but Taylor definitely is.
5. Aaron Mellette, WR, Elon – Big-bodied prospect would be a big help in the redzone. Could contribute right away.
5. David Bass, OLB, MWS – Developmental OLB. We badly need depth here.
5. Tyrann Mathieu, CB, LSU – I know. I think SF is the best opportunity for him, though. He simply makes plays in the secondary and returning kicks, which is exactly where SF needs help.
6. Dustin Hopkins, K, FSU – The best kicker to come out in the last couple of years is a must get.
6. Josh Boyce, WR, TCU – Slot WR and return option if AJ Jenkins continues to not exist.
7. Oscar Johnson, OT, LaTech – OT depth is also essential.
7. Zach Sudfeld, TE, Nev. – Good athlete who might be able to replace Walker as the second TE. Not the H-Back Walker can be, though.
The draft picture will change after free agency opens, obviously, but I think this scenario covers all the areas of need. This mock will also change when I’ve had more of a chance to look into the players, as most of my evaluations are based on a few games I watched last season.
The good news is that what I perceive to be our biggest areas in need of improvement (DL and DB) are very deep positions in this draft.
RynoQuote Reply
@ Ryno:
Ryno, could you do one of those for the Bears? (dying laughing)
MuckerQuote Reply
Suburban kidQuote Reply
@ Mucker:
I sure could, but I’d like to get your opinion on needs. Will they re-sign Melton?
RynoQuote Reply
Keith Law is going to be on Waddle & Silvy in a few minutes if people want to listen.
MishQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
That’s creepy.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Suburban kid:
You’re younger than I thought. (dying laughing)
MishQuote Reply
@ Mish:
I would guess that all front offices encouraged their players to take PEDs.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ Ryno:
They better. He’s really came into his own and seems to be one of the better 4-3 DT in the league. I’ll give you a hint on Bears needs…..it rhymes with Boffensive Pine.
But seriously, I think the Bears address LG and TE in F.A. so I see LT, C, MLB, CB as Bears biggest needs. I know Emery said he’s going BPA in the draft so that could change. I’d actually really like to see them trade that 20 for that 31 and 3rd rounder though.
MuckerQuote Reply
Also, Bears offense will be moving to a WCO style so gives you an idea of player fits and what not. Defense will keep the 4-3/Cover 2 shell that they already employ but no word on Urlacher resigning and my gut says he won’t.
MuckerQuote Reply
@ dmick89:
all FOs encourage their players to “ehance” their “performance” in anyway possible. if it happens to be PEDs, then so be it. it’s not explicit instructions to go out and take ‘roids,, then it’s implicitly stated just by signing the player (unless you have personally tested the guy and know for a fact that he’s clean). maybe this attitude is just a function of me assuming that all players take PEDs though.
either way, i have absolutely no problem with theo endorsing past or present PED use as long as he is/was smart about it.
EnricoPallazzoQuote Reply
EnricoPallazzo wrote:
Yeah, I couldn’t care less about it, but Mish is right that it could be a huge story. That is, unless Theo is successfully able to blame ownership in a manner that he has already done quite well.
This won’t be much of a story because Schilling never set any records, he’s not implicating any other players, it’s the front office/ownership and nobody gives a shit about their involvement. I wish MO was around right now to go off on ownership like he has in the past.
dmick89Quote Reply
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t care, but a direct allegation could be very damaging. We all assumed this happens, I don’t know if any player has openly admitted it.
MishQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/curt-schilling-members-of-the-red-sox-organization-encouraged-me-to-use-peds.html
dmick89Quote Reply