No walks and a single extra-base hit (Logan Watkins, double). You'd think the Cubs lost, right? Wrong: Chris Rusin pitched a shutout because he's on a mission to make me look as stupid as possible. 5 hits and a walk, and 8 strikeouts. 

Mississippi Braves 1 @ Tennessee Smokies 2 

1-8 each had a hit, but they were all singles. This was another 1-walk performance with 11 strikeouts and no XBH. 

Eric Jokisch went 6 strong innings with 3 hits and 3 walks combined for a single run. After he left, Trey McNutt had a nice inning, and then Tony Zych and Frank Batista each had a scoreless frame. 

Daytona Cubs 2 @ Clearwater Threshers 9

Javier Baez drew a walk, stole a base, and struck out once. He scored a run. The entirety of the scoring game on a 2-run blast by Dustin Geiger. Ben Carhart had a double and a single; John Andreoli had the only other hit. 

Zach Cates went 4 innings and allowed 5 hits and 5 walks, which contributed to 4 runs allowed. Austin Reed said "I can do better," and allowed 5 runs in just 2 innings. That's pretty efficient. Jeffrey Lorick had 2 scoreless.

Salem-Keizer Volcanoes 8 @ Boise Hawks 6

Good offense here. David Bote is 0-2 with a pair of walks and an RBI. Carlos Penalver had a walk and a single, as did Kevin Encarnacion, and Jacob Rogers had a pair of singles. Yasiel Balaguert had 3 RBI on the strength of a single and a double. Daniel Lockhart had a pair of walks also. Lance Rymel and Trevor Gretzky each had a double.

Duane Underwood had a bad game. In 3.2 innings, he allowed 3 runs on 6 hits and 2 walks. Orbandy Rodriguez was way worse. In 2.1 innings he allowed the 6 hits and also 4 runs. Ethan Elias allowed a run in 2 innings. Tyler Bremer pitched a 1-2-3 9th.

DSL Cubs 8 @ DSL Mets1 5

Frandy Delarosa is now batting .053.

VSL Cubs 7 @ VSL Rays 5 (13 innings)

Ricardo Marcano hit a 3 run home run to tie it in the 8th.

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 6-17-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

I had to stop and ask myself if the Cubs had even played the Cardinals yet this year. Two and a half months into the season, the Cubs and Cardinals have only played a two game series back in May that they split. This is probably a good thing for the Cubs win-loss record (or a bad thing, depending on how you look at it). The Cardinals are good. And kinda lucky. But to paraphrase Dwight Schrute quoting Billy Zane in Titanic, they make their own luck. It's utterly obscene what their farm system has churned out, and I can't think of many free agents that they've busted on either. 

Team Overviews

The Cardinals may have an awful defense and be bad at baserunning, but that doesn't matter much when you have the best offense in the league and a starting staff that averages out to essentially having five Clayton Kershaws by FIP-. I would have guessed that the biggest hold defensively was converted 2b Matt Carpenter, but it's actually been CF Jon Jay, 3B David Freese, and RF Carlos Beltran that have been the biggest drags on the defense per UZR and DRS. Allen Craig has by far been the worst on the basepaths, accounting for a negative half win with his baserunning mistakes.

Injury Updates

David DeJesus was diagnosed with a sprained right shoulder following his collision with the wall in Saturday's game. That's not nearly as bad as it looked, I was sure he had separated it. No ETA on his return yet. Steve Clevenger should be finished with his rehab soon in Iowa, and will probably return soon to bring the bullpen down from eight pitchers to seven.

The Cardinals are missing Jaime Garcia, who is down for the season following labrum surgery. SS Rafael Furcal is also done for the year following Tommy John surgery back in March. Sometime closer Jason Motte also had Tommy John surgery this spring. The Good Chris Carpenter is working his way back from nerve problems in his shoulder. He's thrown about 20-25 pitches to live batters, but it's still a while until he returns. Maybe July, but I'm not holding my breath there either. 

News, Notes, Blood oaths, etc.

Luis Valbuena batted leadoff yesterday, and it sounds like he and Ryan Sweeney are going to be the main leadoff guys vs RHP while DeJesus is down. I like this news – aside from DeJesus they're the only other guys on the team who can take a walk worth a damn. 

Buried in the Marmol Meltdown yesterday was a great bounceback start from Matt Garza. He was roughed up in his last outing, but good to see him get a chance to rebuild that trade value.

The Cubs signed 4th round pick Tyler Skulina with a bonus well over slot. They signed him for $800k, with a slot value of $323k. Nice pickup by the Cubs. 14th round pick Daniel Poncedeleon, who memorably tweeted a picture of himself with a signed contract, is apparently now going to college instead. I guess that wasn't the 'real' contract. Maybe it was printed on a cracker or something.

Probable Pitchers

Monday: Travis Wood, LHP (2.65, 91, 4.46, 4.23) vs Shelby Miller, RHP (2.21, 67, 3.01, 3.48), 6:05 PM CT

Miller has struck out 10.07 batters per nine innings (28.7%) and walked 1.88 batters per nine (5.4%). I don't know what else to say. Wow. He gave up more than three runs for the first time this season in his last start, against the Mets. 

The Travis Wood BABIP train keeps on rolling. He's currently sitting at .214. How long will it last? He's throwing a lot more sliders this year, which could be part of the answer. His popout rate is significantly greater this year.

Tuesday: Jeff Samardzija, RHP (3.46, 3.07, 78, 3.39) vs Adam Wainwright, RHP (2.18, 48, 2.55, 2.75), 7:15 PM CT

This is clearly the marquee matchup of the series, and should be can't miss. Well, unless you have tickets to a game at Pac Bell instead . 

F7 is coming off two rought outings in a row, allowing four runs to the Bucs and five runs to the Reds in his last two starts. It might just be chalked up to BABIP – the opposing team just got a lot more hits off him in those starts, though he did walk a few batters. 

Wainwright has been absolutely unreal this year. He only has nine BBs on the entire season, to 97 strikeouts, and has only allowed two home runs. I guess it's safe to say he's fully recovered from his 2011 TJS. 

Wednesday: Edwin Jackson, RHP (5.40, 84, 3.64, 3.61) vs Jake Westbrook, RHP (2.05, 97, 4.46, 4.09), 7:15 PM CT

Westbrook is a worm-killing machine. This is the second start back from a DL stint, so he probably won't go too deep into this game. He allowed five runs (3 earned) in his first start back, against the Marlins. So there's still probably some rust to shake off there.

Jackson had his second solid start in a row, striking out seven in six innings and allowing only one run against the Mets. Jackson's veolocity was up to normal for his second start in a row (and third in his last four starts), so it looks like he is indeed finall coming around. 

Thursday: Scott Feldman, RHP (3.05, 95, 3.85, 3.84) vs Lance Lynn, RHP (3.56, 80, 3.75, 3.59), 7:15 PM CT

It sounded like Feldman didn't have his best stuff in his last start (at least, from what I gathered from Pat and Keith), but he still got good results anyway. He only allowed two hits, walked one, and struck out six in seven innings against the hapless Mets offense. I've been calling him Paul Maholm 2.0 this year, but in fact he's pitched even better than Maholm to this point of the season. Maholm had an ERA of 4.88 (owing to his awful first two starts) and a K:BB of 49:22. He actually never put together his really good run until July (just the right time!). The Cubs got a top 100 prospect for Maholm, maybe we should be dreaming as big for Feldman too.

Lynn gets the Jack Morris Award For Knowing How To Win, having a 27-8 record since becoming a full time starter. Of course, his numbers are much better than Morris's were, and he's playing in front of a great offense. Lynn throws mostly fastballs, with the occasional curve or sinker mixed in. He only throws 93-94, yet his fastball is overwhelmingly his out pitch so I'm guessing he gets a lot of movement.

The post Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (28-39) at St. Louis Cardinals (44-25) appeared first on Obstructed View.

• Javier Baez 9F
• Kris Bryant 9G
• Jorge Soler 8.5E
• Arodys Vizcaino 8F
• Duane Underwood 8G
• Albert Almora 7.5D
• Arismendy Alcantara 7.5D
• Dan Vogelbach 7.5D
• Dillon Maples 7.5F
• Pierce Johnson 7D
• Junior Lake 7E
• Gioskar Amaya 7F
• Paul Blackburn 7F
• Trey Masek 7F
• Jeimer Candelario 6D
• Ronald Torreyes 6C
• Rubi Silva 6D
• Rob Zastryzni 6E
• Logan Watkins 5B
• Yoanner Negrin 5B
• Brett Jackson 4A
• Josh Vitters 4A

Since so many love rankings, it's pretty easy to get based on these ratings. Multiply the upside by 10 and subtract 5 for each letter below A.

• 65: Javier Baez, Jorge Soler
• 60: Kris Bryant, Albert Almora, Arismendy Alcantara, Dan Vogelbach
• 55: Pierce Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino
• 50: Ronald Torreyes, Junior Lake, Dillon Maples, Duane Underwood
• 45: Logan Watkins, Yoanner Negrin, Jeimer Candelario, Rubi Silva, Gioskar Amaya, Paul Blackburn, Trey Masek
• 40: Brett Jackson, Josh Vitters, Rob Zastryzni

The post 2013 Midseason Top Cubs Prospects appeared first on Obstructed View.

Omaha Storm Chasers 5 @ Iowa Cubs 5 (Game Postponed in the middle of the 6th)

This game got rained out partway through. Thus far, Steve Clevenger has been the highlight, going 3-3 with a home run. Dave Sappelt was 1-3 with a double. Brad Nelson was 1-2 with a walk. Junior Lake finished up 1-2. Brent Lillibridge was 1-2 with a walk and two SBs. Everybody else is hitless so far, though Darnell McDonald had a walk.

Brooks Raley continues to be not great. 5 earned runs on 5 hits and 2 walks, with 2 Ks over five innings. Jeffry Antigua worked a clean 6th, giving up 1 hit and K'ing 1.

Mississippi Braves 4 @ Tennessee Smokies 3

A nice day for both Ronald Torreyes and Rubi Silva, both collecting 3 hits and a double, Torreyes in 4 ABs and Silva in 5. Torreyes also added a BB. Arismendy Alcantara was 1-2 with 3 walks. Bully for him. Jonathan Mota joined the 3-hit party with a 3-4 day with a walk. Pin-Chieh Chen was 2-3 with a triple. Matt Szczur was 1-4 with a BB.

Austin Kirk had a fairly meh start. 5 innings, 5 hits, 3 runs, and 3 each of walks and strikeouts. Tony Zych took the loss, giving up a walk and a run in his inning of work while striking out 2. Trey McNutt worked an inning and faced the minimum. Zach Rosscup gave up a hit and a walk in his inning, but struck out one and didn't allow a run. Frank Batista gave up a hit in the ninth, but was otherwise clean.

Wisconsin Timber Rattlers 5 at Kane Couny Cougars 1

Not much in the way of offense for the Cougars yesterday. Wilson Contreras had the best day of the group, going 2-3 with a triple. That was KC's only extra base hit. Albert Almora was 1-4 and had another caught stealing. As complete a player as Almora already is, he really, really needs work on the basepaths. Or to just stop running. Dan Vogelbach and Rock Shoulders were both 1-4. Bijan Rademacher walked twice. That was the extent of the offense.

On the pitching side, Michael Heesch gave up 5 runs on 8 hits in six innings of work. He struck out one. Nathan Dorris worked a perfect 7th, and Shawn Camp closed out the 8th and 9th, giving up a hit and striking out three in his rehab appearance.

Boise Hawks 7 @ Eugene Emeralds 0

Shawon Dunston led the way with a 4-6 day, including a 2B. Kevin Encarnacion followed up with a 2-4 day with a double of his own, as well as a walk. Jacob Rogers was 1-3, but his one hit was a home run, and he added 2 walks. Yasiel Balaguert was 1-4 with a double and a walk. Trevor Gretzky went 1-5, as did Carlos Penalver. Daniel Lockhart was 2-4 with a walk. David Bote was 1-3 with a walk.

The pitching was the story in this game, shutting out the Emeralds. James Pugliese threw 5 scoreless, striking out 7 and giving up 3 hits. Jasvir Rakkar's only blemish was a walk on 2 otherwise spotless innings. Matt Iannazzo gave up a hit and nothing more in his inning of work. And Michael Hamann was perfect in the 9th, striking out 1.

DSL Cubs 8 @ DSL Pirates2 9

VSL Cubs 3 @ VSL Phillies 5

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 6-14-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

3. Pierce Johnson – The 22 year old supplemental first round pick from 2012 is probably a little too old for his level, but he's been dominating. He only logged 11 innings after the draft last year, but started the year in Kane County. He's made the most of it and will be due for a promotion soon.

In 62.2 innings, Johnson has 25.7% of the batters he's faced and walked only 7.1%. He's also kept the ball in the ballpark as he's only given up 4 home runs.

He has given up more hits than you'd like. To be precise, he's given up 63 of them and that's a higher number than you'd like for someone advanced for his level. Despite the impressive control, he's allowed more than 1.3 baserunners per inning due to the number of hits allowed.

There's plenty of reason to be optimistic regarding Johnson, but also reason to be concerned. The large number of hits allowed could be the result of a leaky infield, but I'd have to check out the other pitchers before we could even go there.

While Dave and I did not think that Johnson had the highest ceiling among the pitching prospects in the Cubs organization, we did rate him higher than the others. This was because we thought he had a higher floor and because he was older, would move much more quickly. I can't speak for Dave, but Johnson has moved up simply because some others have dropped.

Dillon Maples has performed poorly when he's healthy, which isn't often. Arodys Vizcaino is injured. The others on our list have yet to make an appearance. So these guys have either stayed where they were or dropped while Johnson's defense independent statistics have been quite good. We'll need to see how he performs at the next level, which we should get a glimpse of this year.

2. Kyle Hendricks – The 23 year old right hander was drafted twice. In 2008 he was taken by the Angels in the 39th round. He went to Dartmouth instead and it paid off. Three years later he was drafted by the Rangers in the 8th round.

He was a reliever his first year with the Rangers, but was so good they moved him to the bullpen and he's continued to be impressive. The Cubs acquired Hendricks, along with Christian Villanueva, for Ryan Dempster last July. He had a rocky start with the Cubs, but has been excellent so far this year.

In 71.1 innings, he's struckout 21.3% of the batters and walked only 5.6%. He has a 2.57 FIP and a more impressive 2.14 ERA. Hendricks throws a ton of strikes and hasn't been hit particularly hard. He's allowed 61 hits this year and only 2 home runs.

He hasn't been known as a top prospect or anything, but he's continued to put up impressive numbers since turning pro. He's not long for AA and should see significant AAA action this season.

1. Arismendy Alcantara – One of the youngest minor leaguers in the system relative to the league's median age, Alcantara has not disappointed. He hasn't just been as good as previously. He's been quite a bit better.

He's currently batting .289/.364/.478 with a .381 wOBA. His wRC+ is 141. While his BABIP is .341, that's right in line with his career average. His walk rate sat below 5% in his first two seasons and climbed to 5.3% a year ago. This year it's nearly double that at 9.8%. He has the best ISO in his career at .189 in large part due to the 9 home runs he's hit in 265 plate appearances.

That's a lot compared to before. Alcantara had hit 9 over the previous two seasons totaling 749 plate appearances. He's hit as many or more doubles than he has in any season in less the playing time too. His speed has not suffered with the addition of the power. He's stolen 16 bases compared to 25 last year. He's on pace to top that figure. He's become an excellent base-stealer.

He was successful 25 of 29 times last year and 16 of 18 so far this year. Since 2012 he's been successful 87.2% of the time.

He's done all this while playing shortstop. I don't see Alcantara pushing Starlin Castro to another position, but if Alcantara continues to play well, we could see him moved to 2nd base and Darwin Barney moved to the bench.

If Alcantara keeps hitting like he has been, he'll probably be due for a promotion around July.

Honorable mention: Christian Villanueva and Javier Baez. Baez hasn't moved up since he was the top prospect and a top 20-30 prospect in baseball. He really  has nowhere to go but down. He's being mentioned here because last month he was listed as the player who had fallen the most. He's had a monstrous month since then. I still have the same reservations about him that I did a month ago. He has shown more patience, but he still has a very low walk rate. He's also struckout less so there's been some regression to the mean in both areas. Both are a little higher than you'd like, but no player is perfect.

Christian Villanueva has quietly put together another quality season on offense in AA. His rate stats aren't pretty. You could even look at them and dismiss him, but it's good enough to be quite a bit better than the average hitter (119 wRC+). He's also hit for more power since coming over in the trade last summer. His ISO this year is .175. Vaillanueva has consistently been between 19% and 26% better than the league average hitter. I don't think he really has the tools for that to translate well to MLB, but if you factor in his well above average defense, he's still a nice prospect.

We'll have an updated top prospects list tomorrow afternoon.

The post Cubs Prospects on the Rise, June edition appeared first on Obstructed View.

The Cubs have had a crappy year, but it's been just about as bad for the Mets. I'm sure Ron Santo is smiling somewhere that at least if the Cubs are going to be bad, the Mets are just as awful. They've gone 2-8 in their last ten games, and there's been a roster shakeup or two. Manager Terry Collins's seat must be pretty warm. Oddly enough, his last job outside the Mets organization was as the manager of the Northwoods League's Duluth franchise. Summer college leagues are a scam if I ever saw one – the players can't get paid thanks to the NCAA doing NCAA things, and I know the Madison franchise always seemed to draw plenty of people (who drank plenty of beer).

Matchup

The Mets bullpen is pretty awful, but their starting staff is pretty good. Luckily the Cubs will miss Matt Harvey and the soon to be promoted Zack Wheeler, the two of the only three bright spots on the roster. The other, 3b David Wright, has been the primary source of the Mets first place baserunning numbers. Wright has been worth half a win on the basepaths this year. He was a very good baserunner earlier in his career, stealing as many as 34 bases in a season, and has 12 so far this year.

Injury Updates

SS Ruben Tejada is on the DL with a quad injury, but everyone else on the Mets injury report is a pitcher. Mets SP Dillon Gee has been bothered to various degrees by finger tendinits all year. The Mets are going to a (ugh) six man rotation after calling up Wheeler to accomodate Gee and Niese, who has been similarly banged up. Most of the other injuries are to relievers, but the biggest one of all is Johan Santana, who his out for the year following shoulder capsule surgery.

Not an injury here per se, more an injustice. The Mets DFA'd Rick Ankiel the other day following a 20 inning game of offensive futility against the Marlins, eventually losing 2-1. You go twenty innings and don't try to pitch Ankiel? I just don't know, Mets. 

For the Cubs, Zach Putnam was diagnosed with a bone spur in his elbow following an MRI. Shawn Camp is pitching for Kane County right now, and could be back soon, unfortunately. Though if whatever his injury was is gone and he pitches like he did last year, that would be cool. Not holding my breath here though. Steve Clevenger has been rehabbing in Iowa for nearly two weeks now. I wouldn't be surprised if his rehab time is up soon. No new news on Scott Baker or Arodys Vizcaino since their last setbacks. 

News, notes, blood oaths, etc.

The Cubs signed 11th round pick Jordan Hankins. He was an infielder in college, but they're converting him to catcher. Maybe that's just to get his time behind the plate in so they can convert him to a pitcher later, since they've had a lot of success there (laughing). 

Brett's got a story breaking down the latest Wrigley renovation news. The short version of it was that there was no interesting news, which is good news considering all the posturing and whatnot that surrounds this process. It sounds like there's still going to be lots of negotiating/palm greasing for all the construction around Wrigley, but the team will be able to start improving the stadium itself this offseason (priorities: outfield signage/tyranovision, player facilities).

Pitching Matchups

Friday: Edwin Jackson, RHP (5.76, 85, 3.58, 3.63) vs Shaun Marcum, RHP (4.96, 78, 3.92, 3.46), 6:05 PM CT

I don't have anything new to add about Jackson that I didn't say in a recent facepalm, so here's that paragraph again:

The 'real' Edwin Jackson showed up for the first time this season, striking out eight while allowing one run, one walk, and four hits in seven innings. More importantly, his fastball averaged 94.78 on the day, much closer to his career avg of 95 mph than the paltry low 93.x mph he had been throwing earlier this year. The velocity bump showed up in the rest of his pitches that well. We had a false start of excitement in his rain-shortened start against the White Sox last week – his stuff looked a lot better (maybe more movement), but the Cell has a hot gun and a historically bad offense. He was pummeled for 12 hits and five walks by the DBacks in his next start, averaging 92.4 on his fastball. He said the key to his good start was that he was just "having fun out there", so I guess he got a pep talk from Brett Favre before the game.

The Mets signed Marcum to a 1/4 contract this offseason, which is a little puzzling if you see his numbers over the last three seasons. Granted, he did miss the last month or so of last season with an elbow injury, but still. He's had some problems with strand rate this year, which is not surprising considering how his defense rates behind him.

Saturday: Scott Feldman, RHP (3.22, 100, 3.85, 3.91) vs Jon Niese, LHP (4.24, 114, 4.53, 3.80), 12:10 PM CT

Paul Maholm 2.0 has had two meh starts in a row, giving up two runs in six innings to the Angels and five runs in six innings to the Reds. Between those two starts, he struck out just three batsmen. He should be pitching for a contender a month or two from now.

Niese has seen a huge drop in his strikeout rate and a big jump in his walk rate this year. He has no significant changes in velocity, so that's not the problem. It looks like he's lost command of his cutter and curveball, as both have been hit way harder than in previous seasons.

Sunday: Matt Garza, RHP (6.26, 126, 4.13, 3.86) vs Jeremy Hefner, RHP (4.11, 132, 4.35, 4.51), 12:10 PM CT

Garza was simply destroyed in his last start. I'd say more about it, but his numbers seem to be messed up for that start in the BB database, so I'll stop in case any drunk baseball execs are reading this and forgot what happened in that start.

Hefner's a pitch to contact type of pitcher, so he cold do well against this lineup. The Cubs tagged him for four runs in four innings in their last matchup. He's coming off four straight quality starts, striking out 21 in those 25 innings with four walks. 

The post Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (26-38) at New York Mets (24-37) appeared first on Obstructed View.

Honorable Mention

Brett Jackson is technically a prospect, but I feel like we pretty much know what we're going to get. He's going to struggle to start on a good team, and might have 2 or 3 years as a starter on a team like the Cubs or Astros. He might find work for half a decade as a 4th OF, and if things break right he could be slightly better than that. The days of being a considerable part of the next contending Cubs day are essentially over, though. His development hasn't just stalled, it's gone in reverse. The Cubs said they changed his swing, which didn't solve his K% rate but instead sapped his power. He sits at 85 wRC+ in the PCL.

Juan Carlos Paniagua has essentially lost another year of development when time is already of the essence with him. He's had the world's worst visa issues which had essentially robbed him (and the Cubs) of the whole year. When he finally reaches the states, the "undetermined"-year old might start to define his value; until then, it's hard even calling him a prospect.

#3 Zeke DeVoss

It looked at the end of the first month this year that DeVoss was going to reclaim his spot on the fringes of the Top 10 lists. Then May came, and with it, a .198/.323/.198 month. He's started to turn it on June  (.308/.424/.577), essentially as soon as I starting righting this, but even his recent surge puts him under his wRC+ from last season.

It's not all bad with DeVoss. He's got an excellent walk rate and a manageable strikeout rate (15.4% and 18.3%, respectively). The probably is his absolutely anemic power. An ISO of .106 doesn't look that bad, but when it's attached to a player with the contact issues of DeVoss (as far as putting the ball in play for hits), it's going to get really hairy at higher levels. His line right now is .233/.386/.339 against A+ pitching. When he climbs the ladder, pitchers are going to attack DeVoss and he hasn't really shown the power to stop them from doing so. 

DeVoss plays 2B and is mega-blocked at that position. At second, he has to compete with Alcantara/Torreyes/Watkins/Amaya. At CF, he has to compete with Almora and Silva. Where does DeVoss fit?

He's not doing terribly as a prospect, and his inclusion on this list can be seen as a good thing. I just thought that DeVoss had a shot at reclaiming some of his past luster and he really hasn't.

#2 Dillon Maples

I'm not going to focus on the fact that Maples is probably not the most PC person on the planet. I'm just going to focus on the fact that Maples has been injured for the majority of his career, and not looking good in his return.

In 23.2 innings, he's walked 19 people. He was wild in Extended Spring Training, also. As a 19-year old, that would be understandable. As a 21-year old, it's a little sad. Hopefully he embarasses me and this is the king of all small sample sizes. I'm just afraid that an age-21 pitcher who has battled injury for parts of every season since 2011 that can't throw strikes is a really bad sign.

#1 Gioskar Amaya

This is the one that is clearly most disconcerting. Maples and DeVoss are slightly worrying, but Amaya has imploded completely. In 2012, his line was .298/.381/.496 at Boise, and a darkhorse candidate to really, really break out in 2013. 

Instead, he collapsed completely, to the tune of .243/.311/.358. That's an OPS drop of 208 points over a single year. His ISO dropped from .199 to .115. His walk rate went from 10.4 to 8.1, while his K rate climbed from 20.5 to 25.9. His BABIP is .329 and he STILL only gets on base 31.1% of the time. He went from curious power from the center of the field to fringe-prospect status in an awful hurry.

Part of it might be nerves. When the bases are empty, his OPS is .808. With runners on, it crashes to .475. RISP? .360. 

Whatever it is, it needs to change. Amaya's chances at being a good prospect are very reliant on speed and power, since even in the best of days he had swing-and-miss to his game. With his power eroded and his patience worse than ever, it's been a terrible, terrible year for him. 

The post Cubs Prospect Monthly Review: Falling June 2013 appeared first on Obstructed View.

The Cubs were perfect-gamed until the 6th inning. Dave Sappelt had a 3-run blast and a double. Donnie Murphy had a good game, going 3-6. Both Logan Watkins and Brad Nelson went 1-4 with 2 walks. 3rd hitter Steve Clevenger had a single and a double.

Nick Struck had another poor-ass game. He sits at 6.46 for an ERA at the year, and whispers of Jay Jackson are here. Michael Bowden struggled, allowing 2 runs in 1.1 innings. Hisanori Takahashi continues to do well, with 3.2 innings. Marcus Hatley had the loss with a run in the 12th.

Mississippi Braves 3 @ Tennessee Smokies 2

Ronald Torreyes had a single. Arismendy Alcantara didn't. The only extra-base hit of the game, and the only good performance, was Rubi Silva's 2-4, 2B day. Well, Matt Szczur was 1-2 with a walk as a pinch-hitter.

Alberto Cabrera had 7 strong innings, allowing 2 runs on a walk and 5 hits. 7 strikeouts, as well. Trey McNutt picked up the loss with a run allowed in the 8th. Hunter Cervenka pitched a routine ninth.

Cincinnati Reds 5 @ Chicago Cubs 6

Starlin Castro went 3-7. His struggles are clearly over. .243 average buddy Anthony Rizzo had no hits and a pair of walks. Nate Schierholtz is awesome and reached base 4 times: 2 walks and double triples. Boom! Even Welington Castillo had a trio of hits. 

Jeff Samardzija had a really bad game, but the bullpen was awesome.

Fort Myers Miracle 1 @ Daytona Cubs 5

Javier Baez was the only player on Daytona without a hit. 5 different players had a double:

Zeke DeVoss
Dustin Geiger
Ben Carhart
Chadd Krist
Tim Saunders

DeVoss had the team's only walk.

Yao-Lin Wang had 4 innings and allowed no runs, scattering 3 hits and 3 walks. Kyler Burke pitched a single inning of relief, and got the win despite being the only player on the team to allow a run. P.J. Francescon had a relief inning and allowed no runs, muck like Jeffrey Lorick in 1 inning, Eduardo Figueroa in 1.1 innings, and Frank Del Valle in 0.2 innings.

Burlington Bees 1 @ Kane County Cougars 4

Albert Almora, my hero. He was a homer away from the cycle. Bijan Rademacher had a pair of walks and a cycle. That was basically the extent of the offense. Dan Vogelbach was 0-4. Rock Shoulders had a double and a walk.

Tayler Scott had a great outing, except for the lack of strikeouts (only had 2). Steve Perakslis was ok, with 1.1 innings of scoreless ball.

DSL Pirates2 6 @ DSL Cubs 2

Jose Paniagua played 1B for the Cubs in this game. If only we had Juan Carlos Paniagua playing for the Cubs too.

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 6-13-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

• I'd be remiss to not start with this one: much-maligned Starlin Castro had a 3-7 day, including a 450-foot home run that the wind somehow knocked down into the ivy for a double. Even more than that, though, his at-bats looked really good today, and he seemed to be seeing the ball really well. Am I going to go through all seven at-bats pitch by pitch? Yes, yes I am:
  • 1st inning: Ball 1 in the dirt; Strike 1 low in the zone, swung on and popped foul; called strike 2 high, really, really close pitch, looked out of the zone to me, but the kind of ball old Starlin might've taken a hack at; Fouled-off breaking ball out of the zone low; belt-high fastball popped foul; another fouled-off breaking ball low in the zone; check-swing on Ball 2 in the dirt; low and away offspeed pitch that Starlin flicks into center for a hit.
  • 3rd inning: Starlin takes a first pitch fastball up in the zone and drives a hard fly-ball to right center that gets run-down by Choo.
  • 5th inning: First pitch slider at the knees that Castro hits hard right at Phillips. 
  • 7th inning: Called strike 1: a two seamer low and inside; Ball 1: fastball inside; called strike 2: slider inside at the knees that PitchTrax later reveals was indeed out of the zone; Ball 2 low and away; Strike 3: tough-looking splitter in the dirt that Starlin waves at. Maybe his worst at-bat of the day, and it maybe looks worse than it was because of the bad strike 2 call.
  • 9th inning: Ball 1: high and way outside; Ball 2: belt high and just as far outside; then a fastball leaking over the heart of the plate that Starlin just destroys. Any other wind conditions and that ball ends up on Waveland.
  • 11th inning: Called strike 1: slider at the knees; Swinging strike 2: two seamer tailing off the plate inside that Castro swings over; Ball 1: really, really high fastball; Ball 2: really, really high fastball again; then a fastball up in the zone that Starlin pops up to short. Worth noting that there was a big shadow over the plate and sunshine over the mound, adding to the degree of difficulty.
  • 14th inning: Fastball up in the zone fouled straight back for strike 1; Ball 1: a breaking ball outside; Breaking ball low and inside fouled off for strike 2; Ball 2, fastball outside; Ball 3: touuuuuugh slider diving below the knees that Starlin checks his swing on — that's the Soriano Strike, and it's really nice to see Castro holding off from it; then a belt-high fastball that gets smacked into center for a single

What's the takeaway from his day, then? When Castro's swinging early in the count he's making contact and hitting the ball hard. That seems to suggest that what Sveum & Co. are trying to get him to do — look for balls he can drive and wait for his pitch — is taking. If he's not getting his pitch early in the count, he's seeing a lot of pitches, working deep counts, and letting his contact instincts take over when he gets to strike 2. All of that strikes me as a really, really positive sign that he's through the worst of it and is succeeding at making himself a tougher out. It's worth noting that about half of these ABs were against Latos as well, one of the tougher right handed hurlers in the game right now.  Seeing the results show up in the box score is great for Starlin's confidence, but even if he'd gone 1-7, with the PAs he put together today, there's plenty of reason to be encouraged.

• Beef Castle had a 3-5 day, more than doubling his hit output for the month of June. Castillo's been in a nasty slump of his own, his season line dropping to .246/.294/.326 after a scorching hot start to the year. Castillo is what he is, but at .080 ISO seems like it's due for at least a bit of regression upward. Hopefully today's nice output at the plate is the sign of Beefy finding his way a bit.

• Good Marmol(TM) sighting! Three Ks in his inning of work.

• Cubs relievers put up 8 innings of 3 hit shutout ball today, walking 1 and striking out 13. For as much shit as we give them when they suck, it's worth acknowledging: damn good work today, boys.

• The Cubs won today. We should probably feel pretty good about that.

• The win today snapped an 11 game home losing streak against the Reds. Always good to end those.

• Aroldis Chapman sat unsued in a 14 inning game. This makes me happy, at least.

Minor League Performance of the Day:

It's early, but the I-Cubs are getting perfect-gamed through 4 innings against the Astros AAA-affiliate. Our AAA-squad is being perfect-gamed by guys not good enough to be on the Astros major league roster right now. Let that sink in. I was going to give this to the Oklahoma City food vendors, but they don't even seem to have any specialty foods designed to shorten your life.

Nobody else is really doing anything noteworthy so far in the system. So, I'm giving the Minor League Performance of the Day to the Snappy Burger, the specialty burger of my hometown Beloit Snappers, Midwest League affiliate of the Oakland A's. The Snappy Burger is a cheeseburger with a brat on top of it. It's fantastic.

EDIT: I take it all back. Albert Almora is 3-4 with a double and a triple. He's now hitting .413/.451/.547/.998 in 18 games at Kane County. He's really, really good, and much deserving of the Minor League Performance of the Day.

That said, you should still eat a Snappy Burger if you ever get the chance.

The post BS of the Day: 6-13-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.

Your kids will no doubt remember this as the Brian Bogusevic game. He had 2 separate 2-run blasts, and drew a walk for good measure. He was near the entirety of the offense and a Quad-A MVP. Logan Watkins had a walk and a strikeout and nothing else; his line sits at .237/.347/.382 for the season. The Brett Jackson we know and love is back: 1-4, 3 SO. Junior Lake did Junior Lake things: 2-4, run scored, 2 strikeouts, caught stealing, throwing error. The agony and the ecstasy and all that jazz. 

I've been banging the drum on DFA'ing Chris Rusin for quite some time now, but credit where it's due. He had another really nice game yesterday, scattering a walk and 5 hits over 7 scoreless innings. He only had 3 strikeouts, but his ERA now sits at 3.38. The problem is he's 26 and sits right around 6 K/9 and 3 BB/9. That's not going to work, and in any case is eminently replaceable. I'd rather have the spot go to someone with genuine upside, like Yoanner Negrin or Guillermo Moscoso. Can anyone really envision Rusin as part of the next good Cubs team, or even trade bait for a piece of it? No way. I'm sure he's a great kid, but he's on his 3rd trip around the PCL and he's never struck out over 17.8% of batters (and doesn't exactly have pinpoint control). It's probably time to part ways. Barret Loux got a relief inning in and allowed a run on a walk and a hit. He also struck out 3 batters. I know dmick89 hates him, but I'm still intrigued by him, he's got some talent that may or may not ever show up after his injury. Brian Schlitter is being groomed for a relief role in Chicago in the mid-near future, and had another solid inning of work. 

That's the most I've ever spent on the Iowa Cubs, I think. 

Fort Myers Miracle 6 @ Daytona Cubs 3 (7 innings)

I think I've come around on the idea of promoting Javier Baez to AA. He's not going to struggle at A+ anymore, I don't think, because he's just too good for the caliber of pitching in this league. He hasn't "earned" his promotion, per se, because his holes are exactly the same as they were when he was drafted, but he deserves a chance to fix those holes as soon as he can. I think the longer he stays in A+, the more detrimental it is to his development, because he's getting confidence that he really shouldn't be getting. I had a little exchange with the always-excellent Sahadev Sharma, but find it laughable that he insinuates poor 1B and fielding conditions are to blame for his errors, when a) the other fielders around him don't have the same problem and b) poor 1B play would generally be an error on them. I can buy it a little, but I think some of that is just unnecessary fluff. Baez is a great prospect, and we don't need to gloss over his deficiencies for that to be true.

Baez was 0-3 with a walk and no strikeouts this game. John Andreoli had a pair of walks but never scored. Jorge Soler had a double and a single, scroing a run and striking out once. Oddly, he was the only play not to draw a walk in this game. Chadd Krist had a single and a solo shot, and drew a walk to boot. Zeke DeVoss had an RBI and a walk, but no hits. I'll have a piece on him later this week.

Ben Wells had another poor outing, though a Ben Carhart error (fielding, his 5th, undoubtedly poor turf ) allowed 2 unearned runs to score. He only last 3.2 innings, allowing a pair of walks and quintet of hits. Sheldon McDonald was knocked around, recording an equal number of outs and baserunners, but allowed only one run. Larry Suarez finished with 1.2 uneventful frames. 

Fort Myers Miracle 5 @ Daytona Cubs 4

Javier Baez had a pair of walks in this game, which is good to see. Jorge Soler went 1-4 with 3 strikeouts, so he had a very Brett Jackson-like day. Zeke DeVoss had a two-run shot in the 7th to make a game of it, and had another walk and single as well. John Andreoli, the sort-of forgotten All-Star on this team, had double doubles and a single single, for an RBI and a run. Wes Darvill showed everyone what's up, and drew 3 walks and went 0-1. 

Matt Loosen has an excellent chance of being released after this class of draft picks signs. he went 4 innings and allowed a pair of runs, both on a 2-run HR. He struck out 6, walked 3, and gave up 4 hits. Austin Reed gave up a trio of runs in as many innings.

Cincinnati Reds 2 @ Chicago Cubs 1

I hate games like this. Even when we were up, I though we were going to lose. Sure enough, we did. Trade bait Nate Schierholtz continues to do good work, and Ryan Sweeney (who EVER thought he'd be our 4th hitter this year?) had a single as well. Darwin Barney had a single, and I just described everyone who reached base for the Cubs this game (Travis Wood's walk excepted). Everyone else sucked.

Travis Wood had a great game but lost anyway, because this is the Cubs. James Russell pitched a mediocre eighth (and has been worse than his 1.46 ERA would indicate), and Kevin Gregg had a decent ninth (and dropped his ERA to 0.96). I think there's every chance that he's a Detroit Tiger in the very near future, probably for a lottery ticket in the low minors. Fine with me. That trade makes a ton of sense to me; they need a closer in the worst way, but probably don't want to spend a lot for it, the two teams have had an open dialog in the recent past, and Gregg is eminently available and in need of being traded (both to open up space for Shawn Camp and to give Carlos Marmol another opportunity to close). It makes a ton of sense, so it probably won't happen.

DSL Nationals 2 @ DSL Cubs 12 (7 innings)

Adonis Paula was a double away from the cycle. 

VSL Rays 1 @ VSL Cubs 13

Cubs scored 9 times in the bottom of the 8th. 

Greyfer Eregua pitched 5 innings of 1-run ball, plunging his ERA to 0.93.

The post JOT: Cubs Minor League Recap 6-12-13 appeared first on Obstructed View.