On the sidebar we have a Yardbarker widget and one of the articles I noticed this morning was this one: 3 Reasons the Chicago Cubs Should Trade Starlin Castro.
Starlin Castro is currently the shortstop for the Cubs. This position is the de facto captain of the infield, and it needs to be manned by someone that will be very reliable in the field.
This position is what this blogger considers to be the de facto captain of the infield. SS is not a position in which the de facto captian plays at that position. I don't even know why there needs to be a captain of the infield. Let's say Darwin Barney is the captain right now. Can anybody tell? What exactly is he doing that is different than any other person who plays his position? What is Jose Reyes or Troy Tulowitzki doing differently? I sure as hell don't notice anything. What the hell could a captain of the infield even do?
If there is a captain of the infield it's the pitcher. He's the one with the ball. He's the one telling the fucking SS when he should cover 2nd base.
Castro and his .958 fielding percentage is anything but reliable.
If a team had that fielding percentage overall, it would be a nightmare. So for one of the captains of the defense, who should be reflective of the unit as a whole, to put up that number suggests his is a liability to his team.
This year shortstops have a .975 fielding percentage. 1B's have a .994 FP. Obviously the 1B should be the captain as he should be reflective of the unit, right?
Theo Epstein analyzed players this way in Boston, following the lead of the A’s Billy Beane and placing special emphasis on on-base percentage, and it brought Epstein’s Red Sox two World Series titles.
The fact of the matter is that Castro doesn’t fit well into this sabermetrics type thinking.
This guy is overthinking it. Since when do good players not fit well into sabermetric type thinking? Sure, Castro isn't going to walk much in his career, but sabermetrics is about more than walks. It's about more than home runs.
While you can count on Castro to rake in a lot of hits and compile an average around .300-.310, his on-base percentage will likely only ever be about .20-.30 points higher than that.
So you're telling me he's going to rake and hit about .300 or so, have a better than league average OBP while playing a premium defensive position and that this doesn't fit well into sabermetric thinking?
Is it okay that a very good hitter doesn’t walk much? It can be for certain players talented enough to overcome it. But when Theo looks through the sabermetrics lens evaluating his team, he’ll likely view Castro and his .340 OBP as very replaceable.
Theo will likely view every player on the team as replaceable and it will have nothing to do with the kind of stupid shit this guy is talking about.
A few infielders who could replace that OBP at a much cheaper price are Jed Lowrie, Marco Scutaro, and Omar Infante, just for reference.
Scutaro is in the final year of a 3-year, $17 million contract. Infante signed a deal for $6 million per year over 2 years. I'm not an expert in math, but if I recall correctly $6 million is greater than $5.7 million, which is greater than $0.5 million.
So whether you as a Cubs fan would like it or not, Theo may see a trade of Starlin Castro as far too sensible to pass up.
He might, but it sure as hell won't be for the reasons included in this article. I couldn't care less whether or not the Cubs trade Castro. If they do, I want them to get a reasonable package in return. If a good deal comes along, trade him. If one doens't, keep him. I sure as hell don't want the Cubs to trade him because they think he doesn't fit well into their sabermetric thinking. That's just not very sabermetric. And it's stupid.
I love when you pick apart these stupid fucking articles. I know this guy is just trying to make money off ad revenue, but put some thought into something before you make any conclusion. This guy has no idea what sabremetrics is based on his extreme reliance on fielding % and OBP.
I saw a link to a Red Sox blog where they thought they could get Castro for their # 8 prospect and ….. Chris Carpenter. (dying laughing)
I think with sabermetrics and quality online deals. Do you have friends? Sabermetrics them to now with low, low cost.
I will sabermetrics for parties and events. Call the number now that I have give to you.
Remember, Cubs logic states that whenever a player is said to be “part of long-term plans” or “untouchable” that said player is soon to be shipped out.
So this recent gaff is an obvious attempt to trade a peaking Samardzija for prospects. I hope that Theo, given the reports, hasn’t decided to ship Starlin too.
Starlin has quietly become a very good gap hitter. He has a SLG around .450 and is on pace for 103 RBIs. The power numbers keep increasing for him.
Personally, I’d try to move him to Third. I actually agreed with batting Starlin cleanup. That would give him a great opportunity to “grow in” to being a cleanup hitter. Starlin doesn’t hit a whole lot of home runs, but he seems to be developing gap power, which I believe is more reliable and less expensive than Home Run Power.
That’s against the laws of SABYRmetrics. Home Runs are valued highly by SAYBR. If you can get a godfather offer for Castro, especially two middle rotation starters or a ++ Catcher, go for it. If the orioles offer you Matt Wieters and/or some combination of Bundy brothers, go for it.
I seriously doubt we’ll get that kind of offer for Castro. Nice to dream about though.
Did I mention Billy Beane? You may remember his sabermetrics were very popular. Made movie of them all. I do so now.
@ jtsunami:
If I read more articles about the Cubs I’d probably do this more often, but I’ve learned to shield myself from the stupidity. If I’m going to read something stupid it’s going to be something I’ve written!
I just couldn’t help but click on that link because I knew it was going to be nonsense. There are good reasons to trade Castro and his reason number 2 is the start of it, but the rest is silly. And the guy has no idea what sabermetrics is.
@ dylanj:
Reality is Iglesis or Middlebrooks or GTFO for the Sawx. Mike Alives has come alive this season. Big Papi slipped him some PEDs quietly sometime. SS isn’t really a need for the Sawx.
They need Pitching the most, probably followed by an Outfielder. I wouldn’t be suprised to see them make a run for Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster or Jeff Samardzija.
If they trade Youk, that would free up space for either LaHair or Soriano in Left, so those guys are also pieces I’d look at as a Sawx fan.
@ Pezcore:
I read a blurb just now about the Red Sox starting to give Middlebrooks reps at SS.
@ Rice Cube:
But Why? Alives is on pace for 20+ home runs and 100+ RBI’s.
Do Sawx fans just go on name value only and not watch the actual games? I’ve always had that impression. I guess this is proof.
i used to think trading starlin would be a really good idea, provided you get a bevy of prospects in return to flesh out a prospect-poor system that needs decent salary-controlled bodies to start emerging from the pipeline in some numbers.
then i read this at fangraphs.
i still think you can trade him. but you’d better get a few really solid prospects for him, because the thought of trading away the next robin yount makes me ache inside.
his transformation has been stunning, but to me trading spellcheck might be a better idea. he’s 27 and arb-eligible next year.
@ gaius marius:
Agreed, GM. I’m fine with trading Castro if they get A LOT in return. He’s an extremely valuable player who, to me at least, has looked a lot better defensively this season than at any time in his career. Those are my lying eyes telling me that so take it with a grain of salt. That’s all it’s worth, but if he has improved we’re talking about an annual all-star. If at that point he develops some power we’re talking superstar. I’m not trading that way for anything less than a little more than he’s worth. Any team trading for him has to pay for the potential too because it’s there. But I’m not at all opposed with trading him. If it’s a good deal, do it.
I definitely agree on F7. I think he’s better than I thought and he’s someone I’d easily trade for the right package.
There are maybe 10 guys in the league I wouldn’t trade and the Cubs don’t have any of them. Strasburg, Harper, Trout, Kershaw……those guys are untouchable. The Cubs having any player labeled “untouchable” is comical. Theo obvioulsy knows what he’s doing so I’m not going to speculate on what he’s thinking but the Cubs have 3 pieces that could net a very nice package of young players. If offers come in that they like, then F7, Castro and Garza are probably gone I would imagine.
EDIT: I forgot Kershaw signed that big extension so he’s not as valuable as the other three but still.
They could sit on F7 and let him build value. Unlike most players he’s got a shot at accumulating even more value as he continues to disprove his pretransformation numbers and shows some durability.
Mucker wrote:
Yep, which is why I don’t believe for a moment that they have any player who is untouchable. It’s not like if the Nationals offered Strasburg and Harper for Castro they wouldn’t make the deal in a heartbeat. That would never happen. They’d not even get offered one of those guys, but you know what I mean.
I laugh at the “two young impact prospects” thing being thrown around. Basically Thoyer is saying that he would love to trade Starlin Castro for two Starlin Castros (dying laughing)
@ Mucker:
Obviously if the right trade comes around, you take it, but at what point do you stop trading your own current “stars” for prospects? Castro is young and is something to build around. Also we can know with little doubt that is he is going to improve with age. A prospect isn’t guaranteed. I might be missing something here, but I wouldn’t trade Castro for much, except maybe two Castros, and that just isn’t going to happen.
What is a realistic trade you’d make for Castro?
@ mb21:
the thing few people seem to properly contextualize is his age. most kids at 22 are in college or double-a. he’s fully four years younger than barney, campagna, russell and the other “kids” on this team.
here’s the MLB list of guys 22 and under with 100+ PA. there are some really impressive (former) prospect names on this list, and starlin is currently 4th in WAR ahead of guys like bryce harper, jason heyward and brett lawrie.
roll that same list back to include 2011, and starlin is #2 behind hyperprospect “giancarlo” stanton.
I really would be giving Starlin reps at Second/Third and manning Dahwin Barney at Short. Shortstop is Barney’s natural, first position. Barney would be a ++ bat at short instead of a + bat. We aren’t going to win this year. I’ve always stated that 2012 has been dedicated to developing talent, raising the stock of trade assets, and getting a high draft pick. So I don’t mind bunting in every situation if we get better baserunners and fundamentally sound hitters out of the deal.
What has been ignored in this conversation, but brought up about Castro numerous times, is the effect of physical developement on his play. If Castro continues to hit the ball harder and beef up, will his speed drop? This will affect his already poor fielding, his batting average, and his ability to steal.
This may be the highest value that Starlin will ever have. If he bulks up, moves to third, and slows down, we could be looking at a .275/.305/.490 hitter who has 20/100 power at age 26. Starlin’s greatest value is his potential. True, he could live up to expectations, stick at shortstop, and make us pay. He could also gain weight, slow down, and go through growing pains moving to a new position.
@ Berselius:
Yeah, but I just worry that he would regress. Right now, he’s Optimus Prime…….next year he could be Jazz or IronHide.
Berselius wrote:
or if, which is where the risk comes on. i’m fairly convinced if dumbfounded, but he’s also 27 and this could be his career peak.
@ Mucker:
I hope he turns into Unicron and starts eating planets for breakfast.
mb21 wrote:
gaius marius wrote:
On the other hand, I don’t think the Cubs brass would have backed his move to the rotation so strongly if they didn’t see something there. I don’t think he’s 3.0 FIP good, but I don’t really see him regressing back to replacement level either. Injuries/durability are a bigger risk at this point I think.
@ WaLi:
Well I don’t really know. It would all depend on the team trading for him. Obviously, certain teams value players more than others and I tend to think teams value their own players more. But as a start, I would have to imagine a better package than what the Stro’s got for Pence from Philly, which was a pretty good haul.
@ Mucker:
I remember people complaining about that package (and what they got for Oswalt) since they didn’t bring back Dominic Brown. The Oswalt package was especially lousy, IIRC.
@ gaius marius:
Sometimes I highlight more of his negatives than positives and I’m sure some take it the wrong way. I always try to point out that despite his negatives he’s still a very good player and so damn young. What he’s done is impressive. He’s not a power hitting walk machine that we’d all like to see. He’s not the most gifted fielder either. He does run the bases well overall, makes up for some of his poor fielding with above average range, and flat our rakes at the plate.
Early on his career I wondered if he could be Ichiro. The peripherals were very similar though Ichiro was obviously older when he accomplished his. Still, I think there’s reason to think he can be as good as Ichiro and maybe even better because he’s still maturing.
That said, I’m open to trading anybody in the right deal. This team needs help, Castro probably won’t be a part of the Cubs when they do contend and if they can get enough in return they might end up better in a year or two than they’d have been if they keep Castro. It’s a risk, but it’s also a risk that could pay off big for the Cubs.
I guess I take that back about the Pence deal. Cosart and Singleton look like they’re pretty good prospects
@ Berselius:
yeah, i mean, they see a #3 starter with three salary controlled years left after this one — that itself is rare enough, right? so i can see why they’d want to hang onto that, even if we’re seeing his max upside right now.
starlin is a different story, though, different kind of potential. to take this theme out to its conclusion…
here’s the list of all players since 1945 sorted by WAR they accumulated to the end of their age 21 season. there are a metric fuckton of HOF players on the first three pages of this list. starlin is near the bottom of page one.
@ Berselius:
Really? They got 2 of their Top 3 and another good pitching prospect for a 3 WAR a year RF.
EDIT: I just realized I looked at Pence’s WAR #s for 2011 as seperate seasons. He actually had a great year last year.
I think Castro will be a Cub for a very long time. And be in the HOF.
@ Berselius:
It’s tricky with trading F7. What do other teams think of him at this point? His projections are still below league average as a starter, but he clearly has the potential that the Cubs saw in him when they drafted him. It’s a risk to trade him now and get less than you might if you wait, but it’s also a risk to keep him and end up getting nothing. I don’t envy the Cubs here. They’ve got a pitcher who isn’t likely to be a part of a contending team whose value isn’t as high as it might be by the end of the season. They’ve got a guy who will be making big bucks who could regress to below average and be worth less than he’s paid. It’s a tough decision here. You don’t want to trade him for less than you could get later on, but at the same time you don’t want to turn down a trade that would offer you more than you may get later on.
personally, I’d hold onto him until the end of the season and then I’d trade him.
The bottom panel made me chuckle.
@ mb21:
I guess they’d have to offer him arbitration and sign him before the trade then, right? I don’t know when baseball contracts technically end, but I guess sometime between the end of the World Series and before the arbitration offer deadline is when they’d try a trade if that’s what they plan to do.
@ WaLi:
From the Braves: SS Andelton Simmons, RP JJ Hoover, SP Randall Delgado
From the Jays: C Travis D’Arnaud, SP Drew Hutchinson
From the Pirates: SP Stetson Allie, C Tony Sanchez, SP Luis Heredia, RP Bryan Morris
Something along these lines. These teams are on the playoff fringe right now, have needs at shortstop, and could be willing to make a ‘panic-trade’.
@ Rice Cube:
Assuming he continues to pitch well or even better than previously you offer him arbitration whenever that deadline is and work on a trade.
In the good old days, someone might have offered something ridiculous for Castro, but I doubt anyone will and I think it would take a ridiculous offer to move him.
Michael Bowden experiment ————-> Over.
Bowden DFA’d and Jairo Asencio picked up, though maybe Bowden makes it back to Iowa.
the guy has been pretty good in AAA for the last few years and bad in the bigs in limited action.
It’s a year folks.
Apparently Bowden was a top prospect for the Red Sox two years ago? I think at this point the Cubs just want someone who doesn’t hemorrhage runs and they’ll worry about sentimentality later. I’m fine with that.
Heyman says the Yankees would sure love to have Matt Garza
i dont see the logic in saying Castro wont be around when we contend. Even if its 3 years from now he would be just entering his prime years. Lock him up.
@ josh:
Yeah, I just don’t see the Cubs getting the kind of offer it would take to trade Castro. He’s quite valuable, but he doesn’t have much power, doesn’t get on base at a rate you’d like for someone hitting as well as he does and isn’t the best fielder. However, he’s valuable despite that and that’s impressive. He could be a lot better, but probably won’t be.
@ josh:
They got him for Byrd. He’s been decent in the minors, but that’s about it.
@ Berselius:
Do the Yankees have anything THoyer might like to have?
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Championship rings
@ WaLi:
Touché
@ mb21:
I knew that, I just didn’t know he had been that highly valued as little as 2 years ago. He didn’t seem all that great on the MLB level.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Maybe a first base prospect?
@ josh:
I was thinking 3B, SP, or CF.
http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2012/5/31/3054339/tim-wilken-most-respected-scouting-director-in-baseball
interesting.
Wow, Derek Jeter was drafted 20 years ago. I remember his rookie season well.
I am now old.
Yankees Top 20 Minor League Ball
Two of 3B Dante Bitchette Junior, C Austin Romine, RP Juan Campos, and SP David Phelps would be my personal choice.
SP Manny Banuelos and C Gary Sanchez catch my eye, but I think that would be asking too much. The Yankees gave up a lot for Pineda. While Garza is more expensive, he’s also far more established.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
WE NEED MORE 1B!!
I wish fangraphs broke it down with oWAR like b-ref does.
Who are you looking forward too?
I’d love to see Carlos Correa Bleed Cubbie Blue.
June 4th-6th — Cubs have pick #6, 43, 54 and 67.
Mb21 will need the Big Gulp for the post-draft writeup
Hoping for one of Zimmer, Gausman, Correa, Buxton, Appel. Giolito would be nice but his contract demands seem pretty real and would fuck up the rest of our draft budget. For those who don’t know, Giolito’s dad is pretty well off, is committed to UCLA, and is rumored to want 5-7 million….. for the (projected) 5th pick in the draft (dying laughing)
A few years ago when ACB covered the draft extensively nobody else was doing it. now every blog is. Weird.
a few years ago we were one of the few blogs even bothering posting minor league recaps now everyone does. There is even a blog just about the minor leagues (god that would be depressing to write about)
Fuckin nerds
IF he were to be traded it would be because of Javier Baez. I’d send him to Seattle with Alfonso and 54 million for Nick Franklin and Danny Hultzen or James Paxton. They have a bit of a stock pile of arms (prob trade away Felix next 2-3 years) and we can shift Franklin to 2B. 2 years from now – BIG ASSUMPTION TIME – c- Soto, Cleavenger Castillo or some “Molina” (they’re everywhere 1B – Rizzo 2B – Franklin SS – Javier 3B – Vitters (outside shot on Jeimar) OF – Jackson, Lahair (maybe) maybe “scrabble” or a FA in RF SP – Samardzija, Hultzen, 1st rd. pick ? Garza, maybe Trey McNutt? RP – TBD. That could be a pretty good young team that could be kept together. Oh, and drop the ticket prices RIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIGHT
Javier Baez is a LONG way from being anything.
@ Fndr5:
No.
In 2 years he’d be the same age as Starlin is now basically and is a better defender. As long as his hitting develops on track he should be fine. Dillon Maples to close the games and have a ton of FA dollars left over to fill in the blanks. Trade dempster for a solid catching prospect and that’s a nice young squad that we could keep together.
jtsunami
Yes.
Seems like a big IF with Baez.
Went to the Rockies game last night…..Tyler Colvin sporting a sexy 28:3 K:BB ratio in about 100 PA.
dj wrote:
Dolis had a 15 inning save?
@ Fndr5:
I don’t see it either. Expecting a player to progress like one of the best young players in the game just isn’t reasonable. It’s more reasonable to assume that next year he’ll be in High A followed by AA in 2014 and AAA in 2015 with a call-up at some point that year and a chance to start in 2016. From everything I’ve read he’s destined to move away from SS too. And we’re still talking perfect world here and that means that he progresses like you hope. There’s a very good chance he and any prospect for that matter hit some road blocks.
I said it at the time Vitters was drafted. Fans were saying we could pencil him into the lineup in 2010. There was just no way. He was too raw then and he was a better pure hitter than Baez is. It takes time. There’s no hurry with Baez. If anyone moves Castro off of SS it will be Lake and I just don’t see that happening as I think he’s more than likely a 3B or CF.
By the way, who the fuck is Dominican Eugenics in Bizarro Fantasy Baseball, and how the fuck does he or she have a 25 point first place lead in a roto league?
How is Baez a better defender? The kid made a TON of errors in AZ instructs and is just now starting his pro career. He’s 19. At 19 Starlin Castro was hitting HR’s in the big leagues not just starting out in A ball.
i actually feel pretty good about what we could do by trading Dempster & Garza and then this draft and next years (probably) top 5 selection. If F7 has really TRANSFORMED! into a front line starter then it just accelerates the process all the more.
mb21 wrote:
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
I don’t know how you can miss the Cubs glaring need for middle relievers MO. Cubs need to trade Matt Garza for Felix Heredia and Todd Van Poppel
josh wrote:
I always just subtract off the defensive score, it’s just two columns over from WAR
@ Berselius:
@ Berselius:
It’s easy on a player to player level or if you import the data into a spreadsheet, but if you just want to sort by oWAR you can’t really do that. i think you can sort by Batting or something like that.
@ dylanj:
The full article is behind the paywall, but the summary is good enough. I’ve always thought Wilken did OK, at least when you take a longer view of the Cubs minor league system, say since the late 1970s when I started paying attention to baseball.
But the methods used were “name your top 3″ and Wilken was named on the most ballots. He could be everyone’s consensus 3rd place vote. While the other candidates could have been more polarizing and thus either loved or left off the ballot–kind of like people’s opinion of certain polarizing ballplayers. So the headline is perhaps a bit misleading, and I guess I’m nitpicking it. But hey, that’s what this thread is about, eh? (dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
It’s not a straight subtraction, though is it? If so, then Martin Prado with his 7.1 fld and 2.9 WAR would have to be a really shitty hitter.
@ mb21:
That’s what I was going for. I wanted to see who had the best offensive month last month by oWAR. I couldn’t figure out how to do that in b-ref, but Fangraphs does it easily, except you can’t sort by oWAR.
@ josh:
Well, you move the decimal point first. Prado would be around 2.2 WAR
@ Berselius:
See, I didn’t know that. That’s the other thing fangraphs needs to do is have the little explanations that pop up when you mouse over a stat. Someone should combine the intuitive interface of fangraphs with the thoroughness of B-ref.
It’s not exactly right, because the runs to wins conversion isn’t exactly 10 but it’s a decent approximation
Johan Santana has a no-hitter going through 7, but thanks to 4 bases on balls, his pitch count is already over 100.
Hey guys, what do you think about trading Furcal straight up for Tommy Hanson in a weekly Head to Head fantasy league? I have Asdrubal Cabrera at SS so Furcal is excess. The trade partner also has Dan Haren, Josh Johnson, Beachy, Morrow, and Johan Santana. I originally offered Furcal for Johnson since Tulo went on the DL for him.
So…Johan Santana is throwing a no-hitter.
@ Berselius:
Again, didn’t really know that. I’ve found their site to be frustrating to learn from. For instance. How do you search for their formula for WAR? The only way I’ve found is to google something like “Fangraphs WAR” and then from there I can find a fangraphs article. Though WAR may be a bad example. Even the simpler stats. I’m still trying to wrap my head around all of them, and fangraphs seems geared toward making it as difficult as possible to understand what they mean. I should probably just avoid the site. I guess I’m just used to the way they organize information, now that I kind of know it.
@ Rice Cube:
Against the Cards? That would be very impressive.
@ josh:
Their WAR is calculated in the bottom section (that is, they add up RAR and convert to WAR): http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2430&position=2B#value
Batting = batting/base-stealing runs above average (linear weights)
Base Running = MGL’s Ultimate Baserunning
Fielding = UZR
Replacement = Runs above replacement an average player is (used to conver RAA to RAR)
Position = Positional adjustment (in runs)
RAR = Runs Above Replacement (all the other categories added together)
I use FG more often than b-ref, mainly because they have FIP and pitch velocity and a few other stats that b-ref either doesn’t have or doesn’t make easy to look up.
@ josh:
The problem is that a lot of that stuff is context dependent (i.e. stuff like run environment is factored in). They did add a page earlier this year that had their “Guts” exposed for those kinds of constants used in the calculation (similar with the FIP constant)
@ josh:
If he gets three first-pitch outs this inning I think he might be allowed to finish it out. I don’t know Santana’s high pitch count this season.
It’s under the glossary tab under seasonal constants
gnu preview up
http://www.obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-chicago-cubs-18-32-at-san-francisco-giants-27-24.html
Santana just walked another batter.