I wasn't buying it, but I'm now convinced that Jeff Samardzija is indeed a better pitcher. Samardzija had not started since midway through the 2010 season when he made 3 starts. He had a 6.19 ERA in those 3 games. Compare that to the 5.71 ERA he has through the same number of games this season. Much to my surprise, he has improved by about half a run per game.
Maybe not. He's allowed 7.02 RA so far this year and in 2010 it was only 6.19. He allowed 16 hits in 16 innings back in 2010. This year he's allowed 22 hits in 16.2 innings. As bad as things are for Samardzija right now, he can look back on those 3 starts in 2010 as the peak of his career as a starting pitcher.
The good news is that he is throwing more strikes this season. The bad news is that they're getting hit all over the field. In hindsight, it looks really stupid that I predicted Samardzija would win the Cy Young award. In my defense, I don't think anyone could have predicted this. I don't care what anyone says, Jeff Samardzija's failure so far is easily the most shocking thing in the 2012 MLB season.
Sarcasm —> thinly veiled
I can’t believe it’s only the 6th inning.
Nice snark. (dying laughing)
I can’t believe nobody has linked this yet
@ Aisle424:
We’re busy absorbing Cubs baseball. You don’t have time to post videos when you’re busying letting the Cubs happen to you. (dying laughing)
Rice Cube wrote:
@ Aisle424:
I did in the last thread but it wasn’t embedded.
/fail’d
Are the Cubs on pace to win 10 games by the start of June?
Jose Reyes fail
@ mb21:
That would be epic.
I hold out some hope that they can win 70, but am no longer holding my breath.
@ mb21:
He let the money go to his head.
@ Rice Cube:
I had them at 68-70 entering the season, but I think 424 is going to be more accurate with his 62 win prediction. I don’t know what AC and berselius were thinking. They were drinking the spring training kool aid or something. (dying laughing)
Here’s some more good news: Jeff Samardzija can’t come in as a reliever.
mb21 wrote:
That’s awesome. The prize is I get to keep all of the subscription revenue for the year, right?
@ mb21:
I give it a month before that’s no longer the case.
@ Aisle424:
I believe that’s correct, but I might have to protest. Samardzija winning the Cy Young was a lock and that appears like it won’t happen at this point. He must be injured so I should be able to pick again. (dying laughing)
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
You always have to find the negatives. (dying laughing)
mb21 wrote:
@ mb21:
In that vein, don’t look now but Randy Wells has not exactly been impressive at Iowa. His crappiness may be JefF7′s saving grace.
I’m going to need some motherfucking coffee to make it through this game.
@ josh:
Currently working on cup #3, but I did have to teach this morning.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I teach every morning. My only student is myself. And he’s an asshole –totally unteachable.
@ josh:
You should force him to watch the Cubs as an act of mortification.
@ josh:
Wait, what do you teach your asshole every morning?
I still can’t believe Jeff Samardzija is off to a bad start.
@ mb21:
He isn’t; have to transform your outlook on what is good and bad.
@ Mish:
Good point. It’s obvious based on F7s starts that the league will score 10 runs per game this year. He’s off to a fantastic start!
What are the chances the Cubs score 3 in the 9th?
@ Mucker:
Quite low.
@ mb21:
You just need to artificially restrict your sample to encompass only those pitching outings which prove his transformation. Then you’ll see the truth.
Looking at the Cubs schedule for April, it’s quite possible they don’t win another game this month.
@ Mucker:
Heath Bell has been shaky so maybe one run is likely.
@ Mucker:
Where’s the fast-forward button? Oh right, this is real life.
@ josh:
Or is this fantasy?
@ josh:
I’ve been watching more Nats games than Cubs games this year.
/not a true fan’d
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, he’s been shaky against all other teams. This is the Cubs. They are the drought breakers.
@ Rice Cube:
Caught in a landslide, escape from reality
@ Mucker:
I’ve been going for walks, writing, and generally being more productive. Hey, maybe this horrible season works out for me.
Cubs lose!
/#1 pick’d
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I’ll open my eyes, look up to the sky, and let you know.
if this team is this bad in June, any chance the FO knee-jerks and cans Sveum?
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I really doubt it. They knew what they were giving him.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I think they have to be smart enough to know that they handed Sveum a pretty bad team and won’t fire him as long as he’s still good with the media and tries to teach the game right. Though the TOOTBLANs aren’t really helping his case.
@ josh:
I’m just a poor boy. I need no sympathy.
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, THoyer don’t seem like the knee-jerk type, but I worry about Ricketts kowtowing to fan pressure.
@ Rice Cube:
I figure aggressive baserunning must be coming from up high, or they at least knew that was what he was going to teach. To be fair, you can’t teach guys good baserunning overnight. Castro has shown some improvement so far. That’s definitely a long-term goal. Plus, the Cubs did get handed a tough schedule this month.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I think if Ricketts cared about the fans he wouldn’t put up new LED boards and be in discussions with the city to try to eventually throw a Jumbotron in Wrigley. He probably also would have told Theo and Jed to buy Pujols and Fielder. I didn’t used to think so but now I really do believe that the Rickettses want to do this right.
Screaming sample size and saying I told you so 3 starts in is a bit contradicting wouldn’t ya say?
Can Sean Marshall protect a 3-run lead?
@ Rice Cube:
To be honest, I don’t want to see Rickets and fat stupid face for 5 years. Either he handed the reigns to Theo or he didn’t. I would hope he’s not involved on any decisions. The guy isn’t exactly an inspiring leader. He eventually got a good guy in there, but he sure did drag his feet long enough.
Marshall > Carlos Beltran
jtsunami wrote:
This.
@ Rice Cube:
…and Matt Carpenter.
@ Rice Cube:
…very nicely struck out the side there.
@ Rice Cube:
Gave up a basehit to Holiday though, so he fails.
So, can we conclude that Marsh has the closer mentality, or do we need a larger sample (say, 2 or 3 more innings)?
@ ACT:
Depends. Is it a Thursday afternoon? If so, then closer mentality.
INTANGIBLES!
Marsh now has 7 strikeouts in 4.2 innings.
@ Rice Cube:
Only if the temperature is below 62.9 degrees
@ jtsunami:
Or is it just consistent with his large sample size?
I mean, if a veteran career .250 hitter goes like 2-9 in a series, I don’t think people would scream WHOA WHOA, SAMPLE SIZE.
Jeepers Cripes, Kemp has 7 homers.
Ha!
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/04/19/the-rat-that-changed-baseball-coverage-on-tv/
Awesome story.
This team beyond awful
Damn, we broke our “winning one game per series” streak today.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
We may as well just look at the innings in which he hasn’t given up a run. I’ll bet his ERA in those situations is tied for a Major League best. F7 is a fuckin phenomenal pitcher.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
There is no spoon.
jtsunami wrote:
If this was the only sample size we have, yes, but we’re talking about a pitcher who sucked as a starter in the minor leagues, sucked in previous tries at the big league level and with the exception the last half of last season sucked as a reliever in his big league career. You’ve got suck, suck, suck, good and suck. The good part was as a reliever and was half a season. Jeff Samardzija sucked entering this season and he’s sucked so far this season.
jtsunami wrote:
I am vast. I contain multitudes.
@ ACT:
He’s already accumulated as many WAR as Byrd was projected to accumulate over the course of the whole season.
@ mb21:
mb21 wrote:
pace berselius, THIS
GBTS wrote:
Exactly. F7 has a 5.2 RA in his big league career and most of that was as a reliever. If it was as a starter it would be about 6.2. That it’s just over 7 isn’t the least bit shocking.
Mikeakaleroy:
(dying laughing)!
I’m thinking it may be more like one win against each non-division opponent this season so they still have an outside shot at that 1 out of 6 goal.
@ ACT:
Based on what I’ve learned since Sveum became the Cubs manager you need 11 innings to know whether or not a pitcher is different.
This has gotten painful enough ALREADY that I can’t handle watching the games and have limited the extent of following each game to checking gametrax on fox sports webpage (my wife can’t handle the long strings of obscenities spewing out of me at the completion of each daily collapse).
@ scot7209:
Let It Happen To You
@ scot7209:
Agreed. I tried watching WGN yesterday, eventually just put on gameday. THen I just turned it off and played Dead Space.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Let it happen huh…I have to laugh or I’ll cry!
(dying laughing)
@ josh:
I turn on the game for comedy. Get tired of “Office” re-runs.
@ scot7209:
I laugh. The Cubs are officially fun-bad. Except for the bunts. Those are just plain bad.
GBTS wrote:
Well, I mean I believe in what mb preaches 90% of the time. However I feel too often that things are looked at in vaccuum. We have input from other sources that said something changed with JefF7. By and large, players stay same or progress/regress slowly over time. There are also rare circumstances where they change drastically.
I thought a change in pitching philosophy, adding a pitch to his disposal, and a perhaps increase in his secondary stuff would work. We also had media outlets saying there was change (or transformation (dying laughing)). I just wanted to see what happened. I have no doubts that he’s a different pitcher than April of last year.
@ josh:
I think I’m playing dead space inside my own mind every day around the bottom of the 5th.
@ mb21:
The hypothesis is that Jeff Samardzija is pitching differently, per the scouts, which we don’t have much in the way of quantifying without more data past this Magical Transformation Point. It’s a small sample size in determining whether the scouts were right or not. Obviously if you just look at stats alone this isn’t surprising at all.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
‘Fun-bad’ nails it on the head.
I’m thinking at the moment they might have problems holding back the offensive powerhouse known as ‘the Bad News Bears’.
@ Berselius:
Yeah, I agree. Too soon to call bullshit on his transformation. The team claims he hit the reset button. He deserves a chance to prove it, if only because several people have backed that claim, such as the manager, presumably the general manager, and the pitching coach. Maybe those guys are all idiots, but I don’t think we can say that with 100% certainty yet.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
….come to think of it that may be a fun mid-season match-up if the original cast members could be found.
Do you think the Cubs could do some cool tricks ‘a la’ Harlem globetrotters but with baseballs?
@ scot7209:
I’m sure if they tried to do something like that they’d just fuck it up and balk in runs.
Id argue this team is bad, not fun bad. Not yet, at least.
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, you’re probably right…bad idea.
(dying laughing)
@ Mish:
I’m not having much fun. When they start catching popflies with their faces out of gross incompetence, it might get funny.
@ josh:
I don’t think we’re very far from that point man…give it another series or two I’d say.
Rice Cube wrote:
That’s a great story
@ Berselius:
Which is all I’ve ever been saying. Unless we get problematically selective with our endpoints, there’s no reliable data set that indicates he’s a different pitcher. All we have are the opinions of “scouts.” And his last two outings look remarkably similar to 99% of what he’s done in his professional career, which makes me wonder what they saw. He does seem to have done a lot of work on locating that good, hard sinker, and he’s added a 2-seamer, but the same lack of control and inability to keep the fastball down (the latter of which was in evidence even in his excellent first start) are still there, so I have some serious doubts about the probability of him being a much different pitcher than he’s been in the past.
scot7209 wrote:
The Cubs are the Washington Generals
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I never thought we’d see Jeff Samardzija, All-Star. I figure that if he was for real his transformation would turn him into a league averageish pitcher. And they have shitty starts too. And problems with leaving balls up in the zone, etc. etc.
@ Berselius:
Damn…I can’t believe I missed that. They’re making everyone ELSE look like the Globetrotters.
I’d like to be able to exclude Castro from that comment but until he stops committing an error every third game, on average, he’s there too.
@ Berselius:
Yeah, there’s nothing we’ve seen so far to suggest he couldn’t be an end of the rotation guy. But that’s probably his ceiling.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
It’s depressing that whether or not Jeff Samardzija can be a 5th starter is the only thing worth talking about.
jtsunami wrote:
This same stuff is said about anybody who just had half a good season. That’s the problem with it. I’ve asked people here and on twitter to come up with a list of players that managers had mentioned had changed and I’ll look at just how much they did change after the fact. I don’t believe that scouts can accurately predict this. I believe that managers and coaches are even worse at it. For every time they’re right they’re wrong about a dozen times. Or more.
@ josh:
It’s way more depressing that he currently is a 3rd starter.
@ Berselius:
As I’ve mentioned before, I don’t trust their accuracy in any way. Whether right or wrong, I couldn’t care less what the scouts say. It means absolutely nothing to me. Over the years I’ve heard literally dozens of times about how so and so is changed. Last year it was about how Zambrano was a changed pitcher. I ignored them and I ignore them now. This year it was Samardzija, Barney, DeJesus, Marmol and Soriano who had become better players. It’s nonsense. I’ll ignore them next year when they tell us how Blake DeWitt, Jeff Baker, Bryan LaHair and Scott Maine are changed ballplayers.
The Phillies are in last place.
Not having Utley or Howard has to hurt a bit. Also, their position players are geriatric (except for Utley replacement Galvis, who sucks at hitting).
So far this year Barney has a double, triple and a home run and I still find the idea that he added much of any additional power to be laughable. Here’s someone who has actually shown an increase in extra base hits like the scouts said and I still think they’re full of shit. I thought they were full of shit about how Marmol improved. Same thing with Soriano and the others. If the scouts are right, the Cubs are going to have a really good team this season. We should be excited.
What really bothers me is that this whole transformation thing can go on and on and on. Jeff Samardzija has transformed this year, but ends up sucking. Cubs say he’s transformed next year. Sucks again. And on and on. If we value what the scouts say now we’d have to value what they say in a year, two years or three years from now. If the Cubs play this right they could set it up so that F7 never has a sample size large enough to be valued based on that recent transformation.
@ mb21:
They could just non-tender him though. Maybe this was just one of those worthwhile experiments. It didn’t work, move on.
@ mb21:
i really don’t care. Until they are fielding a team that matters, why nitpick their pet experiments? They play by the book, the book says they suck. Might as well try a few experiments.
It’s not like the front office is going to say “fuck it, this season is a punt, so I told Sveum to play Samardzija. If he sucks, I fire his ass. Who cares?”
@ josh:
There might be a smidge of truth to this (dying laughing)
But I think Sveum keeps his job at least 3 seasons based on the rebuild timetable.
I also think Sveum is in for the long haul. Epstein really wanted him. I watching a little of the Yu Darvish action, now that’s someone I wish the Cubs would have gotten. He and F7 would be the best 1-2 punch in MLB.
So this Anthony Rizzo guy likes hitting homers.
Yu has his ERA under 4 despite a 1:1 K:BB ratio.
@ ACT:
That’s as much fun as Cespedes OPS’ing .942 while sporting a 40% K-rate.
holy shit, Texas can play ball
Well that was a bullshit goal. Nice giveaway, Hawks.
Cashner has a nice beard.
Are the Blackhawks eliminated? Can I stop almost remembering to listen to their games?
What’s wrong with Junior Lake?
Looks like fangraphs is down. That will make writing this preview much more difficult (dying laughing)
Berselius wrote:
Just make wild assertions about the players’ attitudes with no actual supporting facts.
josh wrote:
Down 3-1 and unable to score on a power play to save their lives, so pretty much.
mb21 wrote:
He has a bad attitude.
@ Berselius:
They must use Dreamhost.
Preview up, too lazy to link from my phone