Was there a Cubs game yesterday?
Hola amigos. It's been a long time since I rapped at ya. The Cubs pounded the LAAoLAoAoDLoBA yesterday 8-1. Jared Weaver shut the Cubs down for five innning and fell apart in the sixth. Jeff Baker and Reed Johnson treated him like a lefty, hitting a monster HR off the batters eye and not long after hitting an easy triple. Tony Campana did Tony Campana things, getting on base with a grounder that got just past the 2b, stealing second (on a pitchout, no less), going to third on a wild pitch, and then being rewarded for his basepathsery by scoring from third on Jeff Baker's HR. Chris Rusin had a strong start against the Pujols-less linup. For some reason Matt Garza started a minor league game yesterday instead, which seems strange, because it's not like the Cubs have to worry about the Angels seeing too much of Matt Garza.
Is there a Cubs game today?
Jay Jackson starts against the DBacks in Scottsdale. Len and Mick have the call on mlb.com.
Are there real Cubs games soon?
Almost there…
Bullpen still taking shape
There are 8 pitchers left in camp for 7 spots: Carlos Marmol, Kerry Wood, James Russell, Rafael Dolis, Shawn Camp, Rodrigo Lopez, Lendy Castillo, and Manny Corpas. I'm guessing it's going to come down to Corpas and Castillo for the last spot. Camp looked pretty good yesterday (it may have been his Cubs debut, can't remember), striking out three in 1.2 innings.
Sveum and Soriano pushing Castro hard
Castro's been making a huge effort to work on his defense, both before the season started and afterwords. Aside from the daily personal attention that Sveum has been giving him, he's been getting work in early on his hitting every day with Alfonso Soriano.
News in fireworks factories
The Red Sox are complaining about Chris Carpenter's elbow injury and could be "exploring" re-opening the Theo compensation. That's just their due diligence though, they had full access to Carpenter's medicals, as well as giving him a physical themselves, and Carpenter told Ace Cubs Beat Reporter Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe that he felt great coming into spring training, and it just flared up in his last outing.
One thing that surprised me in the immediate aftermath and analysis of the Carpenter trade was that no one really mentioned his injury history. It's what put him in the bullpen in the first place. Though I'm guessing that the bone spurs are just a thing, and probably not correlated with his earlier problems.
The Noodle
Is back, unless this was a product of National Troll Day yesterday.
Cue cubbiejulie rage stroke
Speaking of National Troll Day
In between innings of the game against the Nationals, the Cardinals’ public address announcer stated that the team was giving a car away to a lucky fan. Lance Berkman drove the vehicle onto the field, causing a Wainwright double-take from the dugout. Berkman then proceeded to “give away” Wainwright’s Chevy Silverado to the fan, a cousin of David Freese who was in on the joke from the start.
Phil Rogers on the Cubs investments in Cuban prospects
What we've learned: Poor English skills are a bigger barrier to moving up the ladder than breaking your ankle. How else will players learn the best place to eat lunch when they travel?
Sucks if you have DirectTV
The Tribune and DirectTV have failed to come to an agreement, so DirectTV's ~20 millon subscribers no longer have access to WGN or Trib-owned local tv stations through their dish. And it's not like they can just head out to a bar to watch the game – most bars get their signal from DirectTV themselves due to the Sunday Ticket package. They might work something out eventually, though missing a lot of Cubs games might not be a bad thing with this year's team.
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What’s with the noodle?
@ josh:
http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/cubs-talk/The-noodle-is-back-outside-Wrigley?blockID=681028&feedID=10336
There’s a link in there that links to a story on huffington that has a broken link to the original story on Chicago Sun-Times.
So, I don’t know.
The Wrigley Blog guys told me it was real yesterday when I asked if it was an April Fools joke, but it was still April Fools, so I really don’t have any idea. But they claim it is real. They had a photo of it all wrapped up in tarps, which would have been a hell of a photoshop job.
@ Aisle424:
What’s the background with it though? Where did it come from? Is it edible? Why does Julie hate it?
Edit: Sorry this should have been an AskOV. I’ll skip elevenses
I think she just thinks it is tacky and lame. Which it is, but I don’t really care at all what goes on outside the park at all. Not even the meatball in me that likes Wrigley without all the whore’s glitter cares a lick about what happens outside. It’s all cheesy and ugly outside.
Kraft put it there a couple of years ago and I assume the Ricketts got a nice chunk of change in return and now it seems to be back.
@ Aisle424:
Well he is going to have to make up for the lack of ticket sales somehow.
Aisle424 wrote:
(dying laughing)
@ Aisle424:
yeah I don’t care either. If the Cubs are making money I’m good with it. I don’t care what they do to increase revenue and profit.
@ WaLi:
http://www.chicagonow.com/blogs/league-of-her-own/2010/06/cubs-live-game-thread-cubs-take-my-adivce-fail-miserably.html
Cubs releasing more opening day tickets today
http://mlb.ed4.net/like/signup.cfm?cl=52857911&o=5720042&a=follow
(h/t melissa)
@ Berselius:
Does that mean they sold out of regular seats? Speaking of which, I was looking at the site for the Reds, thinking about whether it was worth making a trip to Cincinnati this season. I really like the way you can actually see the seat layout on their site. You zoom in on a section and you can actually see the seats that are available and pick exactly the ones you want. Pretty cool.
mb21 wrote:
@ Berselius:
Where has melissa been? Does she not like hanging out with us anymore? I’m hurt.
@ mb21:
you need to create a non-threatening environment with a women’s only thread.
@ mb21:
From what I gather, she’s been spending a lot more of her time campaigning against her douchebag of a congressman
GW wrote:
(dying laughing), I bet it’s still crickets chirping in that thread
@ GW:
And women should not be allowed to play golf with men.
/MGL
mb21 wrote:
MB, are you a rich white member of a country club? Then you are not qualified to comment on this issue.
@ Berselius:
There’s far more important things going on here. Tell her to get her priorities straight.
@ Berselius:
That may have been the best MGL line ever. If someone said that about anything else he’d probably kick them off the site. (dying laughing)
Enjoyed the pic for the “almost there”. Need to find one of the guy who said “it came from behind…” so it can be used in the “let it happen to you” campaign.
We’ve talked about having game chats on occasion around here, but I’m wondering if we should let women in. We might want to tell jokes and cuss. (dying laughing)
@ Mobile Rice:
I think it’s the same guy.
Lineup today
2B Barney
RF Reedz
SS Castro
LF Adolfo
1B Baker
C Geo
CF Byrd
3B Mather
P Jackson
Berselius wrote:
A year ago I would have wondered if the Cubs were converting Brett Jackson to the mound.
@ mb21:
Everyone has to pass their bullpen test, no exception
@ Berselius:
There might be a better shot where his X-Wing gets hit and is about to explode that would be more appropriate. I’ll hunt one down later.
I believe the one in the picture is the one that gets blown up a moment before the “They came from behind” line. Here’s a clip, but I can’t remember exactly:
Actually, I think he might be the one who says “I copy gold leader” in that clip, the one picture above, that is.
Joey Votto —————> close to 200MM extension with Reds.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/04/reds-to-extend-joey-votto.html
The upcoming free agent pools are gonna be shallow as hell.
Superfriends better be right about Rizzo.
josh wrote:
GW wrote:
reminded me of this:
http://www.theonion.com/articles/i-cant-seem-to-make-my-apartment-a-safe-space-for,10990/
@ EnricoPallazzo:
(dying laughing)
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Reminds me of http://www.theonion.com/articles/why-do-all-these-homosexuals-keep-sucking-my-cock,10861/
@ Berselius:
i make references to that article all the time and i am met with blank stares/akward silences at least 80% of the time.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
That’s one of the greatest Onion articles of all time.
Looks like they’re saying Cain is close to a 5 year deal. I was kind of hoping he’d go FA and give the Cubs a shot. Even before the new CBA, it seems like the trend has gone back toward franchise players more in the last few years, doesn’t it?
Taker HHH was amazing
@ bubblesdachimp:
(dying laughing)
The Cubs are kinda fucked if all these young players keep signing contracts. I mean really really fucked.
@ mb21:
Is this in response to the new CBA? It is kind of what the players wanted, isn’t it? Teams to spend money on current talent, not future talent.
@ mb21:
Yeah, the whole contend in 5 years thing is looking a little too optimistic at this point.
Gonna be weird having all this money to spend every year but nobody to spend it on.
@ WaLi:
Yeah, GW was right on about this.
@ Smokestack Lightning:
It’s basically 5 years if they get lucky at this point. that means getting an unusual amount of prospects to produce at the big league level. If the Cubs were to hit on both Jackson and Rizzo that’s a start, but odds are one of them is a bust.
Things just got real difficult for the Cubs. I can kind of see why the Cubs spend the money they did on the Cuban players this offseason. It’s about their only chance to contend in the next 5 years so why not? Probably ends up being a waste of money, but whatever I guess.
@ Smokestack Lightning:
That can’t be completely true. Every team will be in that situation. Plus, let’s say the Nats go over and give up their 1st round pick for next year (or whatever it is, I can’t remember, exactly), then doesn’t that open the field up the year after for a team like the Cubs to get a better draft class. Or maybe we’ll see a flip-flop of teams taking really expensive young guys, or a trend toward cheaper draftees.
I’m almost more worried that the CBA will drive young people away from the sport completely, and that the overall talent level will decline. Still, it should decline evenly.
@ mb21:
Are you forecasting that all teams will draft and sign and that trading will decline? I see this stuff as more reactionary at this point, not indicative of what’s going to be the situation going forward. It seems to me that locking young guys in has been a growing trend anyway, which could just be a trend toward teams wanting security for the future. But even a guy like Bautista signed a big contract, and later that same season there were trade rumors, which makes me think that long-term deals won’t necessarily be trade killers either.
Matt Cain just got paid… Think we should trade Garza
I mean that teams are more likely to take a risk on a younger player (Castro, for example) to avoid having to pay huge prices later when he turns out to be good. Or maybe more teams are seeing the value of signing a guy like Tulo and Votto to long deals, when 5 years ago they would have let them go to teams with more money, or something.
TCR runs down all the Cubs prospect lists
@ mb21:
It could just be an overreaction to the CBA. If teams like the Cubs can’t spend as much money on the draft or international signings, they’ll just have more money to lock up free agents. The only particular advantage current teams have is exclusivity in negotiating with players before they hit FA, which was just as true before. The amount of money that FAs can get has increased for both current and other teams.
@ josh:
I think players will be traded, but the benefit of signing a player in free agency is that you don’t give up any prospects. In free agency the Cubs could have signed Matt Cain (or someone like him) and it would only have cost them money. Now it’s more than likely going to be that acquiring a player like that will cost you money and prospects. Some will still reach free agency, but the bidding for those guys is going to go through the roof in the near future.
I mean i dont think Garza is going to be worth the 90 million required to keep him around
Though it’s entirely possible that I’m missing something here. My point is that maybe the Reds can now afford to throw $200m at Votto, but some other team that used to be able to throw $200m at him can throw $250m. Obviously these numbers are made up but hopefully you can see my point.
@ GW:
Rusin’s not on that list! Wait, who the hell was that guy?
@ mb21:
Right, but you could see a sort of cottage industry where teams like the A’s become even more sharply a AAA team. The Cubs and Yanks basically don’t even bother drafting anymore, they just sign big name FA’s and let another team do the work. I don’t know if that’s possible, but it seems like the situation isn’t necessarily all bad, it’s just different.
Or, maybe, if these position players are getting more and more locked into long-term deals, it will cause the signing team to devalue younger guys in their org. Like if the Rockies have an awesome SS prospect, they might trade him slightly cheaper because they’ve committed to Tulo. Seems like some teams will have a surplus of younger guys, others will have to make trades and FA signings.
@ Berselius:
That’s kind of what I’m thinking. The Cubs “Grow-your-own team” plan maybe gets modified. I just think we’re going to see something different, not necessarily bad, and I think it’ll be awhile before we know the full impact. The Cubs took what I would call a conservative approach to the new CBA, spending money on Cubans (assuming they sign Soler ever) when they could, but otherwise not pushing the panic button on Fielder or Pujols. That could put them next year in a place where they have money free to make some good moves.
My thinking is that the price of win on the free agent market has gone up tremendously.
@ jtsunami:
I definitely agree there.
@ jtsunami:
Yeah, it’s hard to estimate what it will be, but I think it’s going to increase significantly. If Dempster has the kind of season we expect (2.4ish WAR), I could easily see him getting another $40 million in free agency.
It’s really hard to not see this as bad news for the Cubs. The Cubs probably should have been more active on the free agent market this year. At least they could have signed some decent guys for $5 million per win rather than $6 million or more next year. I have a feeling all the non-Fielder and maybe non-Pujols contracts signed this offseason are going to look like bargains this time next year.
@ josh:
The thing is, all the good young talent you’d want to sign in free agency (peak years) are going to be signed long-term. Not all of them of course, but many more than in previous years. This team isn’t suddenly going to start trading prospects when they’re trying to grow the farm system. It just got a lot hard to build the team we’re wanting to see the Cubs build.
The Cubs need to be thinking about what to do with Castro at this point in my opinion. If the team is intent on contending in the nearish future, lock him up. Assuming he has another season similar to the last two, there’s a good chance he’s ticketed to his 2nd all-star game. He’ll enter the offseason being arbitration eligible as a super two having been a 2-time all-star, batted above .300 for 3 consecutive years and would be only 22 all while playing SS.
@ mb21:
Who should they have gone after, do you think? CJ Wilson’s contract was pretty high too, wasn’t it? I honestly can’t think of who else they could have really signed. They definitely have a weak pitching staff. Unless Samardzija is the Messiah, obviously.
Are the holding back on Castro because of the criminal stuff, or was that all just rumor?
@ josh:
I’m not sure. I didn’t pay much attention to free agency because the Cubs weren’t going to do anything. But consider that the average free agent this offseason signed for about $5 million per win. If some of the experts are right, the win value will increase significantly because of the new CBA. So let’s say instead of increasing to $5.5 million just based on this past offseason it’s instead $6 million or $6.5 million per win. The average player paid this past offseason will cost less than the average player this next offseason.
I don’t know who they should have signed, but it seems to me the Cubs have all their eggs in one basket.
@ mb21:
Just looking over the list, maybe a guy like Reyes, but then that means either he or Castro has to move to 2B/3B. Beltran to play 1B, maybe? Kubel is a corner outfielder, and DeJesus seems better on paper. Cuddyer, maybe, could have played 1B. Beyond that you have guys like Y. Molina, Phillips, who weren’t really on the market, and Lee, Ramirez, and Pena that we already had. Ramirez is really the only one I could see maybe throwing a little money at, he’s projected to be worth half a win more than Stewart, but with more power.
I really think this was a case of a shitty free agent bunch. They would have had to burn a shit ton on Pujols/Fielder/Reyes/Wilson or do without. Edwin Jackson is about the only one they might have gone after. Mark Buhrle is an injury waiting to happen. I guess they could still get Roy Oswalt.
I like that Cain got $1M more than Zito.
@ josh:
They could sign Oswalt and Vlad and be that much closer to the 2006 World Series.
@ GBTS:
Yeah, and Johnny Damon.
I think if you look at the options available, aside from a big-splash signing, they did about as well as they could. Like I said, maybe Edwin Jackson or someone like that, they might have splurged on and saved us from a year of Samardzija.
Beltran has never played first. They could have signed him over DeJesus. He’s going to hit more homeruns, but his overall wins are projected to be roughly the same as DeJesus (I’m just doing quick checks on Fangraphs). And Beltra would have cost more, and made it harder to make a move on BJax later. Plus he’s old as hell.
Carlos Pena might have been an okay resign. I’m not expecting much out of LaHair, maybe it’s just me.
@ josh:
I don’t expect much from him, either. I think the Cubs will be looking for a 1B come June and will be forced to bring up Rizzo.
I don’t think anyone is expecting a whole lot from LaHair (excepting a few internet fanboys).
minor league rosters released today.
Hayden SImpson going to Daytona, Ben Wells to Peoria. Torreyes to Daytona, Watkins to AA
@ ACT:
I like to refer to these players collectively as Mioshasonian DuBoffpauiroegerhair
Zeke DeVoss and Marco Hernandez also going to Peoria. Hernandez will be a guy to watch
@ dylanj:
Are we sure Simpson has recovered from his medically groundbreaking case of mono, enough to travel?
I’m not sure. I kept hearing it was another year of EXST for him but I guess they figured either sink or swim.
Or catch Mono again.
The Cuban we signed will head to Daytona around June. EXST for him until then. Almost all the high $ picks from last draft are doing EXST then Boise. Dillon Maples is injured already.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
If I recall correctly, he had a fractured elbow last season.
@ dylanj:
If he catches mono again, the portal to the realm of the elder gods will open and the earth will pass away in flames and wails.
no, Hayden was just sick. And also lost like 8 mph of velocity from college. He’ll be gone by next year
@ jtsunami:
And true to form, the Cubs didn’t figure it out until after the season.
I’m more just joking about the way so many people keep talking about this case of mono he had as a excuse for his being shitty.
holy shit he did have a fractured elbow! Man that kid has no luck at all
@ dylanj:
There was/is a rumor going around that the Cubs found a fracture in Simpson’s elbow after the season, but I’ve never seen it anywhere but on the blogs.
Cubs are stashing a bunch of the Cubans on the Daytona squad this year. Hopefully they can keep a spot warm for Soler if he ever clears the FA process
That might help explain why the kid was throwing 84 mph before the pulled the plug. It doesnt explain why the Cubs didnt do that sooner.
@ dylanj:
Didn’t they try to pitch Whitenack after they knew he was injured?
i hadn’t heard that but who knows. I’ll be rooting for K-State grad AJ Morris (Gorzo trade) who sat out last year from TJ. He might be a bullpen arm if things pan out.
@ ACT:
I don’t think so either, I was being lightly facetious.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
They didn’t know he was injured. If teams ran MRI’s on all the pitchers who complained of arm soreness they’d be spending a lot more than necessary. It’s like when you go to the doctor because you’ve had a lot of headaches. They don’t start you out with a week long sleep study that includes a 24 hour EEG and an MRI.
I think if LaHair got around 600 plate appearances he’d probably be about league average (close to 2 WAR).
@ mb21:
I though he complained of pain, they said it was nothing, then sent him out to pitch and pulled him after an inning or two & therefore, etc.
Although I could be misremembering.
@ mb21:
They need to invent one of those Star Trek scanner dealies.
@ mb21:
I wonder if this back issue is going to be an ongoing thing. We might see Rizzo sooner than planned.
@ mb21:
I’d be (pleasantly) surprised if he managed that. I’m expecting Hoffpauir-esque results (and yes I know LaHair’s PCL #’s are better). The Cubs need at least league avg from him, I’m just not sure he can manage it.
The difference between LaHair and Hoffpuair is that LaHair can take a walk. It wasn’t until after Hoffpauir had flamed out that he had an above average walk rate. LaHair has had an above average walk rate every year since 2006 (and probably before that). LaHair isn’t going to hit 40 home runs or bat .300/.400/.500, but I think he can be OK.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
that may have happened, but what did he complain about? Was the complaint indicative of something minor like dead arm that every pitcher gets and pitches through? I don’t know, but if the Cubs thought he had a serious injury they would have shut him down.
@ mb21:
I just don’t think MLB pitchers are going to feel any greater need to be cute when pitching to LaHair. His K-rate in minors is well above Hoffpauir’s (21% for LaHair, 16% for Hoffpauir), and their MiLB walk rates aren’t that different (8% for Hoffpauir, 9% for LaHair). I’d just tell my guys to throw LaHair strikes.
Cubs had a good 6th inning. Doubles for Barney (roids), Mather, and Castro and topped off with a Soto HR.
Ubaldo Jimenez ————–> 5 game suspension to start the season, is still a feckless asswipe.
Rumors about that the Votto deal will be 10/200
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/04/reds-agree-to-extend-joey-votto.html
Half-great, half-meh contract?
Me: A building down the street just sold for $350, 000, so I think I should get a raise.
My dept head: /blank stare
Me: I know it’s not directly related, but you can see how this gives me a tremendous amount of leverage here.
My dept head: /openly laughing
Although not directly related, the fact that I made a delicious lamb roast last night couldn’t have hurt Votto’s leverage.
@ Rice Cube:
I didn’t know the Reds had that kind of money.
@ ACT:
Although not directly related, the sale of the Dodgers must have something to do with it.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Strikeout rate can be a concern of course, but if you have a good walk rate I’m not that concerned overall. Over the previous 2 seasons LaHair has walked in 11% of his plate appearances (probably double league average) and struckout 20% of the time. Hoffpauir walked in about 6.2% of his PA the two seasons prior to getting a starting gig with the Cubs in 2009 and struckout in a little over 12% of his PA. Other than both of them being up there in years and playing 1st base, I’m not sure these two have that much in common. Hoffpauir’s previous 2 years included 657 PA. Basically one season. LaHair has batted over 1000 times the previous two years. If you include another earlier season for Hoffpauir you’re still not up to the 1000+ times LaHair batted over the last 2 years and Hoff’s numbers begin to look quite differently than LaHair’s.
That said, there was plenty reason to think Hoffpauir could be close to league average and he didn’t. But that tells us nothing with regards to what we should expect from LaHair. The information most useful in projecting Bryan LaHair’s 2012 season is Bryan LaHair’s most recent seasons. If we could come up with a comprehensive list of players who started to hit the shit out of the ball at about the same age as them then I think we could begin to find some interesting information that might shed some light on it.
I don’t expect much from LaHair, but I think if he’s given 600+ plate appearances he’d be worth about 2 WAR. He should probably sit against some or all lefties, which would limit his PA. A Baker/LaHair platoon at 1st makes too much sense for this team, but I imagine the Cubs will give LaHair a shot to play every day. I think that platoon could probably give you a combined .350 wOBA. Nothing to brag about. It’s 1st base, but it’s not bad and considering the cost it’s pretty good.
The truth is that it doesn’t matter what LaHair does. When this team thinks Rizzo is ready he’ll take over. The Cubs are banking a lot on Rizzo as was mentioned earlier in the thread. From the way it sounds Cashner is firing bullets for the Padres and will get a chance to start next season. I like the trade. I think the Cubs come out ahead, but this could easily be one of those trades that a lot of fans look back on as a terrible trade. I hope that doesn’t happen because if it does, all we’re going to hear about is how Thoyer was so in love with Rizzo that the Cubs had to get him no matter what.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/projections/an-obstructed-view-contest.html