Playing Time Projections
Please take a few moments to fill out the 2012 Cubs playing time projections. It's as simple as possible.
Weekend practice game roundup
Geovany Soto homered, doubled, and walked in Saturday's game, so it looks like he's feeling better from his groin injury. Steve Clevenger, Adrian Cardenas, and Joe Mather also homered this weekend. Tony Campana broke his hitless streak with a hit or two but is probably out of a spot on the roster at this point.
On the pitching side, both Jeff Samardzija (more on him later) and Chris Volstad both had yet another solid outing. Maholm got into trouble in his outing thanks to a Josh Vitters error extending the inning, but largely did Maholm things. Casey Coleman pitched three scoreless innings (put him in the rotation!!!1!), and Andy Sonnanstine likely pitched himself into being released. James Russell also had a lousy outing, quieting the ridiculous talk that he could step in for Sean Marshall. He's a good LOOGY, not a shutdown setup man.
Is there a Cubs game today?
The Cubs play the Mariners at 3:05 PM CT. Travis Wood will start for the Cubs. Len and Mick will have the call on mlb.com gameday. Randy Wells is also starting an even less official "B" game against the Indians.
MO's nightmare ends
Mercurial Outfielder was last seen clutching a bottle of quadruple-hopped IPA and muttering "the horror….the horror". Hopefully someone will tell him that
The bunting tournament is over, and leadoff hitter David DeJesus is the last player standing.
Roster taking shape
In case you missed all the consternation yesterday, Dale Sveum says that Samardzija is "close" to locking up a rotation spot. The rest of the non-bullpen roster seems to be taking shape as well. Joe Mather and Blake DeWitt seem to have taken a big lead for the last two position player spots, and Rafael Dolis has a vote of confidence to replace Samardzija in the 7th inning role.
News in Maddicies
Mike Maddux said that if he had come to manage the Cubs, his brother would have come along as the pitching coach.
Or not, as both brothers backtracked on the comments the next day, and Mike Maddux says he never withdrew his name from consideration either. No hard feelings, he thinks that Sveum more than deserved the job.
Cubs did make a credible offer for Cespedes
6/36 – same money, but two more years than what he got from the A's
A look at how the scouting department is shaking up
Phil Rogers wrote a profile of Jason McLeod and the changes he's bringing to the Cubs scouting organization. One thing they're trying to do is make sure that every scout they have has a video camera to send video along with their reports to the Hall of Justice.
An outside perspective on the Cubs
Tom Loxas at Cubs Den interviewed a NL scout on what he saw in Cubs camp. He likes what he sees from the Cubs coaching staff and think that they could make a difference on Castro's defense. He's also very down on Bryan LaHair.
In case you wanted to know everything about the Cubs 40-man roster and rules thereof
TCR has a breakdown of the roster, as well as everyone's options status. To call this exhaustive would be a vast understatement. (h/t @AJWalsh)
Obstructed View Bracket Challenge update
WaLi and Mish are tied for first place in the Bracket challenge, with 440 points each. WaLi also has the most possible points remaining in his bracket with 1280, thanks to an entirely intact elite eight. GBTS is in last place.
Revenue sharing and college football conferences
MB21 wrote a post on DailyBigTen (where former Cubs blogger and TOOTBLAN progenitor wrigleyville23 now writes) about revenue sharing and the Big Ten vs the SEC. It's a good read.
Nerd video of the day
Just because I watched a ton of it yesterday. Season two is less than two weeks away! Even better, Game of Thrones set all sorts of sales records for HBO dvds, so this series isn't going away anytime soon.
Suburban kid wrote:
I disagree, and think this is the main reason he’ll get the spot. Without Mather, if the Cubs face a lefty either LaHair or Stewart (or DeWitt) would have to be in the lineup, since Jeff Baker can’t play 1B and 3B at the same time.
Doug etetectdsaaga wrote:
That reason was the MPH on his fastball, not any expectation that he’d be better at controlling it than anyone else. Plus the knock on Samardzija for years was that even with the velo the movement on his fastball sucked.
mb21 wrote:
I would never say something silly like Dempster had a bad season last year. Just because lot’s of people are stupid and say that doesn’t mean I do.
And I know larger samples are more useful. I’m not denying that. But looking at in various ways there are signs that he’s figured something out and is a much better pitcher than his overall numbers from last year indicate. I don’t necessarily think he’ll be good. I’d put it at maybe 20% that he’s a sub 4.00FIP pitcher. But for me that 20% is worth it. I understand why people think he’s not going to be particularly good, but everyone is acting as like this is absolutely a bad decision and there is no real evidence pointing towards it making sense, but I can see exactly why the guys in the Front Office think this is worth trying. Shark is never gonna be an ace. There’s almost no possible way in hell. Or a #1. But there is a real possibility he figured out how to get pitches in the strike zone at a reasonable rate and can be a solid pitcher for a few years. If we look at a rare case like Cliff Lee he had a walk rate of 3.1 per 9 through his first 741 major league innings. Since then he’s had a BB rate of 1.4 per 9.
That’s craziness. But let’s say it’s possible for a pitcher to lower their walk rate by 1.7 per 9, then it’s possible, I think, that the 3.7~ walk rate Shark showed towards the end of the year is his true talent walk rate. If he can manage to keep that up while striking out 7.5 or so guys per 9 as well, then he is a pretty useful starter as long as he doesn’t give up an inordinate number of home runs.
It’s not the most likely thing in the world, but it’s still very possible that he’s useful and it makes sense that the Cubs management team would want to see if it’s just a good stretch or something has actually changed. Wood is only 24, he can come up later in the year when someone is traded, he has options anyways so it really doesn’t hurt him. Volstad is 25 and can be given the 5th spot and Wells, in my opinion, doesn’t have a ton better chance than Shark of being a good pitcher because it’s possible his stuff may never come all the way back and he’s just not very good anymore. And given that Shark is also 3 years younger and under team control, I think that makes him a better pick than Wells.
Berselius wrote:
I’m well aware of the movement thing. Though I think that’s somewhat overblown. I’m also aware that the velocity is why he got that money. And that’s kind of my point. If his results moving through last year, when he showed much improved command are real, then it’s possible he figured out how to control said fastball/pitches. And if he has, which is at the very least possible, he could be a decent starting pitcher.
Quote button appears broken.
Doug etetectdsaaga wrote:
You have to highlight the text you want to quote before hitting the button.
Ah, OK thanks.
Kudos to the GoT shoutout. I watched basically all of Season 1 yesterday. Season 2 is Coming.
@ Doug etetectdsaaga:
Highlight the text you want to quote.
EDIT: Sorry, that’s what I get for not refreshing obsessively.
I’m in first? I have no idea how that happened. I just somewhat randomly picked teams. I guess most people here did the same (dying laughing)
@ WaLi:
@ WaLi:
I picked favorites all the way through. So while I took some hard losses, I still have my Final Four in place, which is nice. I spent all of a minute selecting the better ranked seeds and I’m in first (or tied) in 3 leagues now. Knowing my luck, the only one I will win is this one, in which no money can be won.
Those fucking Badgers fucking fucked me.
@ GBTS:
Honey badger don’t give a fuck.
Mish wrote:
The upsets in this tournament have largely been few, but spectacular.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
http://www.fangraphs.com/not/index.php/no-orioles-allowed
Aisle424 wrote:
(dying laughing)
Berselius wrote:
You know, we have righty’s facing righty’s every damn day. But since all of a sudden Tom Gorzelanny is starting against you, it’s better to have a guy in the lineup that can’t hit at all?
Suburban kid wrote:
(dying laughing)
@ Suburban kid:
Tom Gorzelanny’s good, bro.
Suburban kid wrote:
For some reason I read this is “You know, we have righty’s facepalming every damn day” and thought to myself, you are right. There is a lack of southpaw facepalms.
Doug etetectdsaaga wrote:
I’m not saying you said it, but I’ve seen people on twitter who have said it and I’m sure the average fan is now saying it. It’s just odd. It’s also why cherry picking the stats is never a good idea. We don’t need to cherry pick F7s stats. We have 6 years of his pitching to evaluate.
This doesn’t mean he hasn’t made some change. It’s entirely possible and that’s all that should be said by those who think that. But if someone is going to talk about the numbers as if they support the argument they’re not looking at the numbers right. If someone just wants to say maybe F7 changed. Fine. It’s when someone looks at his best 40 innings as evidence why it’s a good decision that bothers me.
WaLi wrote:
Probably because OV’s readership is predominantly right-handed.
GBTS wrote:
I’m shocked and amazed that someone is worse than me at this year’s bracketology.
@ Suburban kid:
I think what Berselius is hoping is that they use more of a strict platoon. This teams needs as many plate appearances as possible in which they have the platoon advantage. Than again, I’m of the mind that this team should now try to challenge the Astros for the #1 pick. Won’t be easy, but 200 innings from F7 will certainly help achieve that goal.
mb21 wrote:
Rice Cube wrote:
mb21 wrote:
Giving PA to Mather will help too.
mb21 wrote:
Saying “maybe something has changed” with no evidence at all is pretty silly though. I actually have reason to believe he may have made a change and figured something out. And I’m not coming close to “looking at his 40 bets innings”. I’m not just sorting his numbers by K:BB ratio. I’m not just “cherry picking” so much as pointing out that there is evidence that he’s turned a corner. That evidence may not be his entire work from last year but I can’t really give you anything else, and those previous six years is not very useful when talking about a change someone may very well have made last year.
Also where is this “6 years” thing coming from? Shark was signed in June of 2006. 06, 07, 08, 09, 10. And 06 was only a half season and his first time ever focusing only on baseball. 07, 08, 09 and 10 is four seasons. One of which I’m arguing was actually a lot better than it looks.
@ Suburban kid:
Yep. It’s also a damn shame that Koyie Hill isn’t around any longer.
@ mb21:
The team lost something like 600 WAR when they lost Koyie Hill.
Doug etetectdsaaga wrote:
Those 40 innings are even less useful when talking about whether or not he made a change. There is no support in the stats that this is a correct decision. There is no support by looking at the stats that he has changed. Bad relievers have outstanding seasons over 40 innings. Happens all the time. And every time fans are wondering if this guy turned a corner. Almost all of the time he has not.
You could take a look at pitchers who have had similar careers to F7 and then suddenly threw 40 quality innings and you’re going to find that most of those players returned to their career level. Not only that, the Cubs are moving him into the rotation. What did you say his FIP was over his best 40 innings? 3.2 or something? That’s 4.2 as a starter. And now we have to regress that considerably since it was only 40 innings. So even if we take those 40 innings, the expected results of him as a starter are less than impressive and close to replacement level.
Even if he continued to pitch at that level, he’s still worse than Randy Wells. That’s one of the things that’s frustrating about this. He pitched well in relief, but once you convert those numbers to the rotation they’re league average. If you want to know what to expect in the future you then have to regress that. You’re going to end up somewhere around a 5.3 FIP.
In my opinion, a 5.3 FIP as a starter is an optimistic projection. People can’t say I’m always negative. I’m speaking about F7 in an optimistic way when I say at his best he’s probably a 5.3 FIP starter. That’s about a win better than the projections as a starter. Still a win below replacement, but that’s based only on his 40 innings from last year as a reliever.
Maybe F7 just needs more competition…
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/03/phillies-release-joel-pineiro.html
I think we have the first meme of the 2012 season. Or is it the second with the bunting tournament?
mb21 wrote:
Mish wrote:
My wife and I watched the first half yesterday, then got sucked into a new book and arguing about Samardzija on twitter, respectively (dying laughing)
CJ Wilson might be an asshole.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/over-line-c-j-wilson-publishes-mike-napoli-115513293.html;_ylt=Avt7ydeXGPTG_sE3B5NOCZzsYcp_;_ylu=X3oDMTFkNzgyNDRsBG1pdANCbG9ncyBJbmRleARwb3MDMjIEc2VjA01lZGlhQmxvZ0luZGV4VGVtcA–;_ylg=X3oDMTFvcGs0cnBnBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANibG9nBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
BN just suggested a Baker or DeWitt to Philly trade in case Chase Utley is really broken.
Suburban kid wrote:
I’ll look at the split projections later this afternoon, but I’m betting Mather vs RHP > Stewart vs LHP
@ mb21:
What about the 77 innings I pointed out and showed he was quite good during? That’s roughly 90% of his entire body of work from last year.
Doug etetectdsaaga wrote:
@ Berselius:
25 or 6 to 4.
@ Doug etetectdsaaga:
That FIP number is buoyed by his unsustainably low HR/FB percentage. His xFIP would be much higher. Not to mention that you add a run or so to a player’s ERA/FIP when converting to a starter. Even if you ignore the HR/FB stuff that would be a FIP in the high 4′s as a starter.
I just calculated Samardzija’s fastball velocity in his 5 games started. The average is 93.5. 4 of the 5 starts were between 91 and 93 and the other was over 96. I’m thinking the 96 one is out of whack. Still, the 93.5 average is in line with the typical 3 mph loss that pitchers have when starting compared to relieving. Unless F7 has found the world’s best steroids talk about him as a 95 mph pitcher is a bit absurd. He averages a bit more than that in his career, but most of that has been as a reliever. I’m guessing if he’s going to pitch a full season as a starter he’ll average closer to 92 than 93. That’s still good velocity, but it’s not like the guy is going to be throwing as hard as a starter as he was as a reliever.
@ Berselius:
Low HR/FB rate, low BABIP and ridiculously high LOB%. HIs xFIP, IIRC, was about 4.25. Adjust the BABIP to his career level and LOB% to average and his ERA increases by a lot. He was lucky last year. Better to be lucky than not, but that kind of stuff isn’t going to continue even if he’s in the bullpen.
@ Doug etetectdsaaga:
We have about 630 professional innings from Samardzija. If someone wanted to break that into equal halves we could probably see something, but not over 77 innings. Not over 100 innings. Think about the number of pitcher who have had really good seasons as a starting pitcher only to suck the following years.
His strikeout rate improved last year. That’s good and he faced enough batters that we can safely assume he’s likely to continue to strikeout more hitters than he did previously, but also not as much as he did last year. That’s true even if he stays in relief. Moving to the rotation will only hurt it more. You need 303 batters faced to get an r squared of .5 when it comes to unintentional walks. F7 faced just over 300 last year so his entire season we could say is more representative of his walk rate going forward than whatever it was in the past (I think it was about the same fwiw).
That’s as much as we can say about Samardzija’s stats from last year.
Berselius wrote:
Yeah, and maybe Campana should start in center against RHP instead of Byrd.
To be clear, I have no problem with light hitting defensive utilitymen. Just don’t think they should be in a platoon.
(dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
Haha yes I was almost sucked into that F7 convo as well (well I was a part of it for a while), but then our Assassin’s Creed discussion derailed that and got me on my way to GameStop.
I bought Batman: Arkham City, of course. (dying laughing)
Why would anyone phone Mike Napoli? I can understand if he’s single and it’s all hot chicks phoning him, that would be pretty cool. But if grown men are calling Mike Napoli, or any other famous dude, then there are some serious issues there. What would you say to him if he actually answered?
“Hello?”
“Yeah is Mike there?”
“This is him….”
“……..uh……Hi”?
“Who’s this?”
“It’s Bernard Malamud…..I’m a huge fan”
(click)
(dying laughing) Mucker, I completely agree.
@ Mish:
No worries, Mish. Everything is permitted.
Mish wrote:
Both Arkham Batman games are epic. Well worth the money.
Lineup today
RF DeJesus
2B Barney
SS Castro
LF Soriano
3B Baker
CF Byrd
DH Johnson
1B Mather
C Castillo
P T Wood
Does anyone else have the feeling that the position player starters/regulars are getting way more playing time this ST than in years past?
Suburban kid wrote:
I like Mather better than Campana for the handedness reason, but would much rather have a Daryle Ward type (except right handed) over both of these guys. The bench blows.
@ Berselius:
Sure seems that way.
@ Mucker:
Yes, I loved Arkham Asylum. I beat Uncharted 3 last week and as is my protocol, I trade in a game and get a new one. I was torn between that and AC: Brotherhood (and to a lesser extent, Skyrim), but I went with what the heart wanted.
http://yourmometer.com/comic.php?comic=834
(dying laughing), I need to remember to bust out that graph next time we have a “and not a single fuck was given that day” gif-off
@ Berselius:
Glad to see you will cover most bases by not giving a single fuck or shit.
Now you need to throw in the craps.
Rice Cube wrote:
Do not presume to tell me what fecal matter to throw in.
Berselius wrote:
@ Berselius:
Have you tracked their innings? I think most of the time this spring starters are out by the fifth or sixth inning when they’ve gotten their second or third plate appearance out of the way. In split squads they’re out by the 7th. That’s only when I actually paid attention though.
@ Mish:
Got that one free with my new PC. It is worth it. If you have OCD and want to complete all the challenges, it will also keep you busy for a long time.
@ Berselius:
I don’t know, but one could check spring training stats to see. (dying laughing)
Bubbles would love Tebow to be bairz second RB
The most PA for a Cub in ST last year was in the 70s. Right now it’s 36.
Side note: How long till the Cubs sign Joel Pinero? They really need some pitching help. Did you hear they’re thinking of starting Jeff Samardzija? Okay, back to the video game discussion.
@ Rice Cube:
I don’t know about PAs, I’m just noticing the number of starts. An away game like today’s would normally have one or two guys from the opening day lineup, two or three utility guys, and then the rest filled in with the Sappelts and Dave Keltons of the system.
Sooooooooo…Peyton Manning in Denver…
@ Berselius:
Colvin played in a team high 23 games last year. The team high right now is 12. Are we halfway through ST? (dying laughing) it’s sad I don’t even know that.
@ Berselius:
Is it significantly more than in other organizations so far?
@ Rice Cube:
THis is a very bold move for Denver. If they trade Tebow and Peyton isnt peyton well then they will have pissed off the fanbase..
Bold move. Elway must have really hated him
There are 15 games left including some split squad games. I think we’ll see similar playing time by the end of it.
@ mb21:
16 games done, there are about 2.5 weeks left including Wednesday’s off-day. I’m not sure what the deal is but they have a game on the Tuesday before Opening Day against Milwaukee, which seems like they’re cutting it a bit close.
bubblesdachimp wrote:
I guess I just know the roster better than I used to. I have too many memories of “who the fuck is this guy” when looking at ST road game starting lineups in the past.
@ mb21:
They’re probably making cuts on the off day or shortly after, right? If that’s the case then the starters would probably play just about as much, especially if the coaching staff wants to strategize like they would in the regular season.
It looks like the Cubs have played more games than any team, which is odd because I know some teams had already played 2 games before the Cubs first game.
@ Berselius:
That’s funny since this is a no-name team. most other fans wouldn’t recognize 10 players on this team.
@ mb21:
There have been a bunch of split squads so that does limit the number of substitutions they can make until late in the game. I don’t know how many off days other clubs have, but the Cubs seem to only have the one coming up on Wednesday and that’s it until just before Opening Day.
@ mb21:
They’ll still know that the darker ones are lazy.
@ bubblesdachimp:
I’m sure the people of Denver are livid to have signed one of the best QBs in the game.
bubblesdachimp wrote:
@ mb21:
I can’t keep them straight. I thought David DeJesus was 3B until a week ago.
MLBTR says Phillies might want a better backup catcher. If the BN article re: Utley and needing 2B options holds water then one might speculate the Cubs could send a catcher and one of the expendable 2B guys over to Philly for whatever they have to offer.
I wonder what they DO have to offer though. Just idle speculation.
@ Rice Cube:
Soto + Blake DeWitt for Cliff Lee?
I mean what if peytons neck isnt that good?
Since F7 is a starter to begin the year, can some of you fill this out if you haven’t already: http://ovsurvey.obstructedview.net/index.php?sid=22677
@ josh:
@ josh:
The one game I watched this year I thought DeJesus was Tyler Colvin.
@ bubblesdachimp:
(dying laughing) Then he might throw like Tebow.
GBTS wrote:
Reminder: Discredited Fantasy Baseball II drafts tomorrow night.
@ bubblesdachimp:
I’m sure having to coach their asses off to work around the shortcomings of their third string quarterback was fun and all, but I can’t help but see this as an upgrade.
@ josh:
Unless peyton just isnt peyton. Barnwell wrote something the other day that if his arm is 80% of peyton he is then an average QB…
@ bubblesdachimp:
I don’t really care, to be honest. I don’t even like Denver.
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Yeah, you don’t want to fuck around with neck injuries. I think he should have retired.
Mish wrote:
I’ve played Uncharted 1 & 2 and loved them. Is 3 the best of them? I usually like to wait until games go to about $20 on newegg.com before I purchase but I’ll make exceptions for some games. I also love the AC series.
Speaking of QBs, I still can’t believe that Matt Flynn was such a hot commodity on the market. Performing well in two starts in arguably the best passing offense in football should be taken with an enormous grain of salt.
It’s almost as baffling as Matt Cassel, starting QB
bubblesdachimp wrote:
Well, I think Peyton was more accurate than he was a strong armed QB. And 80% of Peyton is 300% better than Tebow at 100%.
Berselius wrote:
Agreed. Not to say Flynn won’t be good. But it’s like the Cardinals giving up a 2nd, Rodgers-Cromartie and $66 million for 4 starts from Kolb. The scouting in the NFL seems to be really shitty at times.
@ Mucker:
I got Uncharted from my brother in law for Christmas but haven’t gotten around to it yet. It’s next on my list after my current re-play of AC2 (to pick up the trophy I missed and play the DLC).
@ Mucker:
(dying laughing), or that ridiculous deal for Carson Palmer. Or anything the Redskins have done in the past decade-plus.
Berselius wrote:
I think the Uncharted games are awesome. So are the Ass Creed games.
Berselius wrote:
Oh yeah, forgot about Palmer. The Skins and Raiders are completely worthless football orgs. But the Skins needed to trade for Griffin or Luck. They are two of the most complete QB prospects to come out in years. Worst case, they still suck but they sell a shit load of tickets and memorabilia. Best case, they are a perennial playoff contender. I’m thinking it’s somewhere in between.
Mucker wrote:
Where you can can go in- but not too deep?
@ Mucker:
I loved the first two Uncharteds as well. I don’t necessarily think UC3 blows away or revolutionizes the series, but its all the goodness you loved in the first two. It’s been almost two years since I beat UC2 so I might just be having a tough time comparing. I do not regret that purchase.
I find that AC/Batman/UC have very similar gaming engines, that’s why I’m probably a big fan of all three series. Combination of platform jumping/climbing, stealth action, melee action, and puzzle solving.
Mish wrote:
Yeah, I love those types of games. I was really into Tomb Raider when I was younger for that reason. And the God of War series as well. I really liked the Splinter Cell games on PC but that series shit the bed. I like shooters but they are really getting watered down. Have you played Infamous? That game is pretty cool.
@ Mucker:
No I have not, but have heard great things. I also really liked the first Splinter Cell games (I loved the Metal Gear games growing up so all sorts of tactical stealth games are my favorite) I played, but I only had it on XBox. I will probably have an opening after I beat AC: Brotherhood this year, so I might look to Infamous to fill that void.
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Wow.
One-hop screamer ———-> Miguel Cabrera’s face
Mish wrote:
Yeah give it a try I think you’ll enjoy based on what you seem to like in your games.
Aisle424 wrote:
That is quite disturbing. I don’t understand how people take things that people do or say, people that they don’t even know, and treat it like a direct insult or threat. It’s quite alarming to think people like that walk amongst us.
@ Mucker:
I really liked the first Uncharted, but then I traded my PS3 off for a guitar. I haven’t played the newest Assassin’s Creed (the Brotherhood one). It seemed to be more oriented toward online pvp type gaming, which I’m not really into. If I wanted to get together with people and have a good time, I’d go make some friends.
This guy definitely is not well in the head.
@ Aisle424:
He killed Brittney years ago. She’s been in the basement. He still talks to her, woos her, makes sweet love to her. He believes she loves him more now than she ever did.
@ Aisle424:
I think Bobby is fine. It’s Brittney I’m worried about.
You see? It fits.
The scariest part is the wife/husband dual twitter account.
How can you DM sluts with that??
Aisle424 wrote:
(dying laughing)
@ mb21:
You are the most shit guy.
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/post/2012/03/miguel-cabrera-eye-injury-ground-ball/1#.T2d1P2KXTsk
@ josh:
(dying laughing)
@ Aisle424:
Hope he’s okay.
@ Rice Cube:
I can assure you that I will b> never //b! out your phone number on a scoreboard like ahref Jered Weaver. ugh. html.
http://soundcloud.com/axemanmike91/i-cut-my-self-shaving-gone-1
thats a song that crazy Bobby dude made.
@ GW:
Why does the article say “It was a wicked one-hopper that most third basemen would likely miss.” It was hit right to him? Not saying there are many that could play it perfectly, but his reaction time clearly was a factor there.
The only thing that could make this better is if Elway released a statement today stating he’s an atheist who is favor of abortion. He should also add that God is a hoax and he supports the elimination of the 2nd amendment.
@ GW:
*chortle*
@ dylanj:
Wow that mix is really wince-inducing.
@ josh:
How bad does a hop have to be to do something like that? I’m going to MLB.com to see if a video is available but I’m imagining that he had his glove in position and the ball skipped off a bit of sand or something and bounced up much higher than expected.
Couldn’t find it, but this was pretty good “hustle” by Fielder and Cabrera:
http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=20207097&c_id=mlb
@ Rice Cube:
there’s a video at that link i posted, but you can’t really see much
Here we go…YIKES.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/spring2012/story/_/id/7709712/miguel-cabrera-detroit-tigers-takes-hard-grounder-face
@ GW:
Thanks, maybe you can see more in the ESPN link. Looks like the ball was lined into the dirt and then skipped high. Maybe someone who actually played third base would know better but I always thought you were supposed to keep your glove down at the corner just in case, and that’s what I saw Cabrera was doing. He had less than half a second between the bad hop (even though it was several feet in front of him) and impact so I’m not sure how he could have reacted to that.
Josh, you play guitar? How long have you been playing? What kind of gear do you have?
@ Rice Cube:
He was in front, ready. He then pounded his glove, during which the ball hopped up, and caught him in the face. I really don’t know if there was any other outcome. Pence hit it pretty damn hard. I’m not any expert or anything though. Maybe they’re right.
@ GW:
This to me is the most perplexing move in baseball this spring. Why put Cabrera at 3B instead of LF? When he’s at 3B Andy Dirkx is the LF. Wow! Andy Dirkx. We had Andy Dirkx a few years ago, except he was using the name Matt Murton. For nearly the same productivity and better defense, you could leave Inge/Don Kelly/Peralta at 3b (with Santiago at SS when Peralta is there).
Compared to this, F7 as a starter is totally logical.
@ SkipVB:
I guess the main disadvantage to Cabrera in LF is a lack of range. He’s pretty slow now. It’s not like he’s going to be all that good at 3B either so I don’t think that’s the best objection. With Cabrera at the corner, it looks like that infield is going to be super-leaky in three of four areas.
@ Mucker:
Since I bought my first crappy acoustic after graduation from high school (1997). Bought my first electric the next summer and have played that ever since (sellout!). I played classical for a little while, but haven’t picked it up in about a year, so mostly electric. I’ve gone through guitars at a sickening pace, really. It’s disgusting. I had a really nice Parker Maxxfly, but I sold it when we had the baby. Since then, I’ve had my current for awhile though. It’s basically a super cheap Washburn body that someone sanded down to the primer in places to give it a swirly pattern, then filled in most of the pickup routing. The neck is one of those Korean made Kramer necks after Kramer sold out. It just has one shitty humbucker and a volume knob. I had to file down the strat-style bridge because all the screws would cut me when I’d palm mute. I run it through a Fender Frontman 25R combo. I have an EHX Micro Metal Muff, but it recently stopped working for some reason, so I run that baby straight. Total garage band/high school setup, but fun, you know?
SkipVB wrote:
I wonder if anyone’s done a cost-benefit analysis or a risk-to-reward post on F7 as starter. He’s getting paid $2.4MM, he’s got those two arbitration years left as well. As a reliever he’s meh except for last season (the others have already mentioned the abnormal LOB% and HR/FB etc) but if they have a chance to turn him into a starter and increase his value to the team…is that worth sitting through 30 innings or so on a projected losing team while taking those 30 innings away from Wells, Travis Wood or Volstad? Given those six years worth of data (i.e. F7 sucks) they don’t actually need that much time to say “yup, he’s performing about as expected” so you’re not actually losing much with this mini-experiment.
I don’t think the Superfriends and Sveum are ignoring data; I think they’re trying to create an asset. It might not work, but the risk seems minimal to me and the reward might be pretty good. I’m not proficient enough to do all the mathy things but I can’t imagine they’re doing this for shits and giggles.
josh wrote:
I didn’t understand a word of this.
@ Rice Cube:
I was thinking something similar. He’s had such limited success, this may be a do or die thing for him. He might be more inclined to work harder in a job that’s more challenging, or something. I can see why people are skeptical of this move, though. He’s not quite in a do-or-die phase of his career, with 2 arb years left, why not, at best, let him try starting in the minors, to see if he’s really turned this proverbial corner?
@ Rice Cube:
Well, right. Given the choice of poor range in LF or having substandard defense at 3b, I’d take poor range in LF. Austin Jackson could help him some by cheating over from CF. Having way below defense at 3B, SS, 1B and potentially at 2B with Inge/Raburn there will only be good for the White Sox. The bad D at SS and 1B are set, but bad D at 3B is a choice. We could play Soriano at 3B if we wanted. After all, he has infield experience too. But we don’t. Jose Canseco played LF, Cabrera has to be better out there than Canseco…
@ Rice Cube:
Totally agree, the risk is worth it, because 30 innings is low risk on this team. If we can start James Russell more than 3 times last year, we can certainly start Smardz a few times.
@ Aisle424:
What about “the”? I tried to use conjunctions that are pretty common.
@ josh:
I think him being out of options means they can’t send him down without exposing him to waivers, and some idiot GM (say, Brian Sabean) might claim him. This may not be agreeable to the Superfriends on the off-chance that F7 might not suck.
@ Aisle424:
It’s code for “I’m embarrassed by the shittiness of my musical equipment.”
josh wrote:
Oh I hear ya. I’ve owned and operated about 15 guitars since I first started playing (1997 as well). I currently own 5 guitars; 2 Jackson DKM2s, an ESP Flying V with EMGs, an ESP Les Paul with EMGs and floyd rose(love this guitar) and my baby, a Custom Gibson Les Paul Custom(best tone ever). I have a Marshall ATV150 half stack, a Peavy Classic 50 (4×10 combo) and I just bought the EVH 5150iii. Fucking Brutal. I have wahs, overdrives, phasers, delays, chorus, you name it. I’ve played in bands before but now I mostly just fiddle around with them and try to learn as much as I can. Oh, and I also have a shitty Ibanez acoustic that I use to play panty dropping songs for the ladies.
@ Rice Cube:
Oh okay. Well, maybe this is Do-or-die for him, then. Succeed or see ya?
@ Mucker:
Your musical equipment (and, probably, talent) > my musical equipment (and, probably, talent).
@ josh:
I figure if he can’t stick as a starter and given his poor pro numbers so far they’re likely to non-tender him if they can’t dump him in a trade. At least that’s what I would do. Heck, I might even DFA him at that point. I guess for this team $2.4MM is a drop in the bucket so it probably won’t faze them too much to just give it a try and then throw him away if it comes to that.
@ josh:
My newest guitar is 10 years old and the bridge is kinda warped. I envy your position. (dying laughing)
josh wrote:
I don’t know about that. Some would say I’m over compensating. But I just really love guitars. I’ve been playing for 15 years and have recently hit a plateau where I feel like I’m not getting any better. I know my modes and my blues scales and I’m pretty good at improvising. My chord vocabulary needs some work since I mostly just play power chords and the basics. I do some tapping like Eruption and shit but not very good and I’m absoutely shit at sweep picking and string skipping. I’m more of a Michael Schenker type if you know who he is.
@ Mish:
The neck on mine was built sometime in the late 80s or early 90s. It’s actually not a terrible neck, despite being one of the el cheapo cash-ins on Eddie Van Halen’s popularity. The body could really be anything. THe guy I got it from thought Washburn, but I’m pretty sure it’s made from that really cheap pressed sawdust crap, like the furniture you buy at Walmart. If you drill into it, it just disintegrates.
@ Mucker:
I haven’t live in a place since 1997 where I could actually use a half-stack. I had a Fender Blues Jr. (I’m not really a Fender fanboy, it’s just coincidence) tube amp, but I could never crank it up because the neighbors would complain, so I’ve just gone with solid states since then. I kind of like the current setup. It probably wouldn’t work with a band, but it’s good for practicing, and the complete lack of both bells and whistles means I spend more time playing than fiddling with settings.
@ josh:
I used to be all solid state but wanted the tubes for when/if I ever start playing live again.
@ Mucker:
He played with the Scorpions for a while, right? I don’t know his solo stuff very well.
Yeah, that sounds similar to my story. I love guitars, but I’ve never really had the money to buy a really nice one, so I mostly just cobble together parts from other guitars and that kind of thing, or buy knockoffs. I’ve probably plateaued, but I keep trying anyway, because I’m a stubborn bastard. I play some lead, mostly blues/SRV type stuff, but I try to push myself to play a new rhythm every day. I find just rocking out on a new riff to be more fun than trying to master the solo to Sanitarium or something like that.
@ josh:
Yeah Schenker was with Scorpions for a little. He’s a monster. He played with UFO and their live album “Strangers in the Night” changed my life forever.
Yeah dude we have the same tastes. I’m a huge SRV fan and love pre-black album Metallica. I’m into hard rock, classic rock, late 70s to early 90s metal, that kind of stuff. But I love Gary Moore and SRV, those power blues players. As a player, I’ve found that the more I listend to different genres, the more I got out of the guitar. I try to listen to a little bit of everything and I can find something musically appealing about a lot of different styles of music. Even 90s and early 2000s hip hop I’m a huge fan of. Music today is just complete shit.
Yeah you’re light years beyond me, Josh. My crowning jewel is the ability to play the original Super Mario Bros. theme, which is really, really hard. (dying laughing)
I own an acoustic electric Fender that’s pretty beat up now. I mostly just play songs by bands I know, and mostly just rhythm. I don’t play for anyone and never for a band. It’s simply “me time”, just like masturbation. (dying laughing)
Mish wrote:
Mish, you can play the Super Mario Bros. theme? That’s impressive. Youtube has videos of this dude playing that theme on a huge Sitar. It’s pretty fucking epic.
I actually learned to play the Home Improvement theme song which used to give my buddies a good laugh. Because I would even do Tim’s little grunt at the end.
@ Mucker:
I listen to some new music, kind of a weird variety. I like the weirder metal stuff — The Sword, Mastodon, Red Fang, Dragonforce (though, you’ve heard one of their songs, you’ve heard them all). I went through a super heavy nu-metal phase a couple years ago. It was all because I was working next to someone who mumbled and hummed all day, so I found only really crazy screaming metal (Mudvayne, Slipknot, Lamb of God) would drown her out, but that stuff is rarely much fun to play, I find. You can’t beat classic rock and classic metal for playing enjoyment.
@ Mish:
Yeah, me too. I played about three times in front of an audience in college. It was just me singing and playing. Alone. On stage. I found that if I got drunk enough, I could convince myself I wasn’t terrible, but it was pretty terrible. It felt like masturbating in front of a bunch of people I knew, in terms of embarrassment level.
@ Mucker:
Are you talking about that one guy who is playing that crazy 12 string bass thing, and slaps out SMB?
@ josh:
I have some Sword stuff and of course Dragonforce. But yeah they are very redundant. I could never get into Lamb or Slipknot or Shadows Fall or that type metal. I’m big into listening to vocals too and that shit is whack. But yea, Priest, Ozzie, Van Halen….I’ll take that stuff anyday.
@ josh:
Yeah, I saw that once and thought it was a Sitar or something similar. Had no idea it was a bass. But that guy kills it.
@ Mucker:
I like vocals too, and you get it if you listen to it enough. It’s sort of an acquired taste. It probably helped that this was around the same time I quit smoking, so I had a lot of pent up rage and anxiety.
@ Mucker:
I found that through the guy who made the instrument, but I can’t remember anymore who it is. That guy makes these crazy 11-12 string basses. You can only play them the way he does, with hammer-ons. It’s bananas, but cool sounding if you can learn to do it.
So you all know I’m pretty new here and I thought that the title of this blog referred to the irritating posts in Wrigley field, as so well illustrated by the current banner.
But after the last 20 comments or so, I understand now why this is place is called “Obstructed View.” (and I like it–the tendency toward random obstruction, not specifically Priest, Scorpions, Aldo Nova, GreatWhiteSnakeLion, etc.)
(dying laughing)
@ josh:
Pantera was about the most I could take in regards to vocals being like that and Anselmo wasn’t even like that. He had moments when he was like that. But I loved Dime so much I could tolerate it and eventually enjoy Anselmo.
@ SkipVB:
(dying laughing)
Yeah, Josh and I completely hijacked this thread. Sorry.
@ Mucker:
The more I think about it, the more I think quitting smoking and the desire that creates to scream at the top of your lungs played a major role.
@ SkipVB:
Sorry about that. Uh. Samardzija sucks.
josh wrote:
(dying laughing)
I’m glad I never even started smoking then.
@ Mucker:
(dying laughing) yeah there are some really impressive Mario covers out there. It is not an easy song. It’s hella fun though; the 5th fret harmonic on the high E kinda sounds like coins.
I started playing when I was in my Metallica/Megadeth/Pantera mode, among other things. Somewhere after 12th grade, I became a vagine and started listening to DMB, Phish, Coldplay (and later Arcade Fire, Modest Mouse, etc). So what I know is generally in that direction. And I’ve always tried (and failed) to play Zeppelin, Floyd, and Radiohead.
Sorry to be off-topic, but how are we all so sure that F7 is the same pitcher as years prior. Why are we so confident that players don’t change and management keeps letting them suck instead of trying to help them improve. I don’t think F7′s comment about working harder this offseason than any other year should be taken with a grain of salt.
We were all so sure that Garza was going to be an above average starter in the NL when he came over. He starts throwing his fastball a little bit less and all of the sudden he’s a top 20 pitcher in the MLB.
I just think talking in absolutes in regards to him is a bit misguided. And yes, I do understand defending F7 and calling him F7 at the same time is a bit of an oxymoron.
@ Mucker:
Eh, no worries. Actually your discussion reminded me of many times in high school when a couple of my friends would have almost the exact same discussion, while we were either driving around in, or laying underneath trying to fix, one of my friend’s 70-something Nova. The only thing that worked in that car was the stereo, and it had a sweet tape deck, which was regularly stuffed with all the groups you mentioned (but I was more of a Billy Joel kind of guy, and played sax and not guitar, so mostly I did the fixing, or snoring, I guess).
Besides, if you hadn’t hijacked the thread, we’d all be treated to the best quotes of Game of Thrones, Season 1.
(dying laughing)
Faulkner would love this place.
Page is a very hard guitarist to emulate. He used some really funky tunings on some things and his chord knowledge was very impressive. As good as Gilmore is, I never thought he was difficult to copy other than his feel and his melodic structuring, but I guess that’s what defines his playing so maybe he was hard to copy.
@ Mish:
I used to be able to play a passable version of Stairway. Haven’t played it in a while, though. “Wish You Were Here” is an easy Floyd song to play, and sounds pretty bad ass, if you like moody guitar stuff.
Mucker wrote:
I have an ’82Holocauster and a 2.5 watt amp.
Haha okay maybe I sold myself short – I can play Wish You Were Here, Mother, Pigs on the Wing, etc. I just mean in the most general sense, I still suck at guitar. (dying laughing)
@ Mucker:
Agreed with this. I can play most of the acousticy Zeppelin songs (Tangerine, Over the Hills, etc) and then a lot of the main riffs. I have a general knowledge of all the different parts making up Stairway, I just can’t put them together in any cogent manner. That’s why I learned Tenacious D’s tribute. (dying laughing)
@ Mucker:
I love the end crescendo in “Stairway” where he builds those diads bendy things he’s doing up higher and higher. So awesome. I really like the guitar parts on “Sugar Magnolia,” too. I love the distorted guitar that’s just kind of doing its own thing that you can barely hear under the main theme. Yeah, with Floyd, I just find it annoying to play arpeggios. I don’t like stuff where I have to play perfectly because it shows how shitty I am.
jtsunami wrote:
We can only evaluate on what we know, which is primarily the numbers. The same goes for Garza last year. If scouts/pfx guys say he’s pitching differently then I’m fine saying that the projections won’t be as good. But I haven’t heard anything beyond “he’s throwing the ball well”, which doesn’t tell me anything at all. It’s just like saying so-and-so is in the best shape of his life, or put on x pounds of muscle in the offseason. All we know is that he’s been terrible in the past, and there’s reason to be skeptical about his run of good numbers last year.
If the scouts are truly saying to Thoyer that there’s good reason to ignore his past numbers and it just hasn’t trickled through to fans like us, fine. But based on what we know it looks like it will be a disaster.
I can play Louie Louie, Wild Thing, Blitzkreig Bop, AND Hang on Sloopy.
With open tuning.
@ SkipVB:
Shagga: How would you like to die, Tyrion, son of Tywin?
Tyrion: In my own bed, at the age of 80, with a belly full of wine and a girls mouth around my cock.
I know this is completely off-topic, but the Cubs are having themselves a good inning.
It’s just Shagga, WaLi.
@ Mish:
It literally took me about a year of practicing that song before I could play it through, and I pretty much was still just skipping the solo.
@ ACT:
Oh? Only gave up 6 runs? Did Campana hit one out of the infield? Did Kerry Wood avoid a blister?
*Sobs*
@ Mish:
Oops, I knew that. Copied and pasted without looking at it too closely.
@ Suburban kid:
Just use power chords, then you can play them in standard tuning and look like a bad ass. And you, as an added bonus, with slight adjustments to strum pattern, you can play every punk song ever written.
My backup plan for when I grow up, since it’s clear I’m not going to be a professional baseball player, is rock star, so that’s why I feel it’s worth talking about.
@ ACT:
Holy shit!
@ josh:
Yeah, ACT was actually serious!
Pretty sure the Mets will be trading for Jason Vargas now. We know they have good new minds in the front office.
Not sure I get this whole Ichiro-batting-third phenomenon.
@ ACT:
He’s hitting .409…it might just work.
@ ACT:
He’s not as fast anymore, so maybe they’re just trying to take some of the pressure off him to steal and stuff. Why 3rd and not 7th, I don’t know.
@ ACT:
Shut you right up.
Ichiro just hit a homerun. I’ll be damned.
That’s three hard hit balls off Travis Wood this inning. Thank goodness the Cubs were able to score that opening drive touchdown.
@ ACT:
Shut me right up.
edit: should have hit F5 first.
ACT wrote:
@ jtsunami:
I don’t know if Garza is a great comparison anyway. Didn’t he pitch a perfect game or a no-hitter the year before being traded to the Cubs? He had shown talent, but maybe needed a couple adjustments. Until now, Samardzija hasn’t shown that kind of talent. I doubt F7 gets too many starts if he makes the rotation, but it would be the most exciting thing to happen this season, so for that reason I’m hoping for the improbable.
Travis Wood is not making a strong case to be in the rotation.
Oooh, Pitchf/x today!
@ ACT:
They’re sewing his name on the back of Iowa Cubs jerseys as we speak
I don’t think making serious, truthful statement like this:
@ ACT:
and this
@ ACT:
will help your cred.
@ SkipVB:
He’s always doing shit like that.
Did Byrd just misplay a ball? Haven’t switched on my MLB.com yet…just don’t see how a line drive headed right for his position turns into a triple unless he dove and totally missed.
@ Rice Cube:
According to the twitter feed, it went over Byrd’s head. Chone is pretty fast.
@ josh:
Whoops.
Four runs, a throwing error on a pickoff, and a run-scoring WP in two innings. Not a great day for Travis Wood.
@ Berselius:
Better than Vargas’s, though, amirite?
Mucker wrote:
Randy Rhoads died 30 years ago today.
I have a Jackson V with a built-in neck, whatever model Marty Friedman played. Its still at my parents house.
@ josh:
Do box scores have a twitter feed now?
@ Suburban kid:
No, on Gameday
Travis Wood has options left, right? A guy on Twitter is insisting he doesn’t and the only article I can find that specifically mentions options is one by Sullivan, so I’d understandably like a 2nd source.
@ josh:
Although, come to think of it, “over his head” is no indication of did or didn’t misplay it. I’m going to give Marlon the benefit of the doubt unless anyone knows otherwise.
AB wrote:
Marty had a custom line through Jackson. Single humbucker with just a volume? A friend of mine had one in college.
Dear AskOV,
What is the greatest number of comments at OV for one thread? What is the ratio of comments per BB+Error+TOOTBLAN issued by the Cubs that day? (Surely that is a stat that is kept here…)
Thanks
heh heh.
Rice Cube wrote:
The reward is this: there’s a slim chance he could stick at which point you’re probably talking 4-8 WAR over the next 3 years.
The risk is this:
Let’s try the risk/reward thingy for the Cubs and another player. Trade Soto and move LaHair to catcher.
Reward: You get valuable prospects for Soto and if LaHair can hit even close to as well as he did last year you have an exceptionally valuable catcher. Maybe he even figures out how to catch.
Risk:
If we were going to talk about a competitive team like the Yankees. Here’s what we get:
Reward: same as it is for the Cubs
Risk: Lose a few more games than expected and miss the playoffs
I don’t think a risk/reward analysis is particularly useful here. On a non-contending team we could argue that the benefit outweighs the risk for most position changes (Soriano to SS would be an exception since he’d be injured after 3 balls in play).
The Superfriends aren’t ignoring the numbers. They gave F7 a thumbs up when they took over after looking at his ERA last year and then Sveum ran with it and gave him a job based on 10 innings of work. IMO, this is an example when you want a GM like Billy Beane. This wouldn’t happen if he was the GM. The manager does what Beane tells him to do and I can’t imagine the words Jeff Samardzija to the rotation ever coming out of his mouth.
Wow @ Travis Wood
Travis is turning me into a liar very quickly.
@ mb21:
Could the problem be that they couldn’t trade him, and there was no particular urgency to dump him, so they do this and play it out, and then dump him if/when he proves himself to be a worthless? It’s sort of convoluted, but the 5 spot isn’t particularly impressive no matter what.
josh wrote:
Not anymore.
@ josh:
@ josh:
josh wrote:
yea thats it
around high school I was playing in a band doing our best Maiden/Megadeth knock-off impression and I bought that with my high school graduation money.
Nowadays I just try to fake my way through like Al Dimeola and Steve Hackett (a way underrated guitar player IMO).
@ Aisle424:
Wood has one option. And if he stays stashed at AAA all year, the Cubs won’t have to burn it.
@ josh:
@ josh:
josh wrote:
yea thats it
around high school I was playing in a band doing our best Maiden/Megadeth knock-off impression and I bought that with my high school graduation money.
Nowadays I just try to fake my way through Al Dimeola and Steve Hackett (a way underrated guitar player IMO).
@ AB:
Yeah, I can’t play stuff that actually requires talent. I’ve tried. So now it’s all just Motley Crue for me.
New shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/travis-wood-is-to-pitching-as-natalie-wood-is-to-swimming.html