The Hope Monster by Joshua Allen
Still, winning creates optimism, but the season is long and even bad teams win games in bunches. The 2000 Cubs finished the season 65-97. They were horrible. They won 6 in a row from July 21st to July 27th. They won 17 of 22 that season from July 8th to August 2nd.
The 1999 Cubs won 5 in a row a couple different times early in the season. They were actually 9 games over .500 on June 8th. They finished the season with 67 wins.
The 2002 Cubs also won 67 games, but won 5 in a row and 12 of 19 at one point. The 2002 Cubs won 9 of the first 14 games they played on their way to a 66 win season. Finally, last year's team was a bit better than any of the others. They won 71 games. They also won 7 in a row at one point. They also won 12 of 15. Even the 56-win Astros last year won 7 of 11.
At some point this season the Cubs will win 5, 6 or maybe even 7 or more games in a row. They'll win 12 of 15 or 17 of 24. During that stretch they'll look like a really good baseball team. You probably don't win that many games over that long a stretch by looking bad. They'll look like a team who is set to contend in the near future if they add a piece here or there. They'll even beat some really good teams who will look as bad as the Cubs typically do over a week or two.
It's a long season. Every team will look good at times. Each team in baseball will have moments throughout the season in which they look like they're ready to contend in the near future.
I don't mean to shit on anybody's optimism here, but it's inevitable even a bad team like the Cubs will have stretches in which they don't look so bad. This is still a team that will scratch and claw it's way to 70 wins or so.
Comments
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
So what you are saying is that if we can win 7 games in a row, we will be over .500. And if we are over .500, we have a chance at the wild card. And if we can make it to the playoffs…. World Series Champs 2012!!
WaLiQuote Reply
Josh thinks they weren’t that hot
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ WaLi:
BerseliusQuote Reply
Re: Soriano’s bat from last thread…
Now it should be easier for Fonzie to swing a lighter bat, but wouldn’t a lighter bat also reduce the force applied to the ball a la F = ma?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
ke is proportional to the square of velocity
GWQuote Reply
3 HR for Votto today, capped off by a walkoff grand slam
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ GW:
So if he can swing it faster, the ball should travel farther even if the bat is lighter. It’s been a while since I’ve thought about physics but I have a bunch of fragmented thoughts about inelastic collisions, follow-throughs and what not. I might also be stuck on that MythBusters episode where they dispelled the myth of the corked bat (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Most power hitters since Ted Williams prefer a small bat. The loss in “m” is made up for with a gain in “a” (that is, you can swing it with more force) and a smaller bat is easier to control. That said, Ruth used a huge bat and it worked for him.
ACTQuote Reply
That would be impressive in itself. I’m merely looking for better defense and better baserunning. I’m happy with the pitching so far and don’t really care too much about the bullpen since those guys can all be replaced easier than the starters. Baby steps…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Incidentally, this is also why hitters will “cork” a bat. It makes the bat lighter (hence, easier to control and swing fast) without any loss in volume/surface area.
ACTQuote Reply
@ ACT:
So MythBusters was itself mythbusted?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, a lighter bat has more velocity, which translates into the ball going further, but if you reduce the density of the material, it actually cancels out some of the bat speed. The only advantage I could see of corked bats is more hitting area without any increase in weight, but that advantage would seem to translate more into frequency of hits rather than quality.
But, in Sori’s case, maybe he feels that a lighter bat will feel uncomfortable and require more getting used to. Messing up the feel of his swing midseason might make things worse temporarily. Maybe things couldn’t get much worse for Sori.
joshQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
I saw that episode and was disappointed. They used a machine that swung at a constant speed with both kinds of bats, so of course the corked (lighter) bat won’t hit as far.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Nope, I’m with WaLi here. This is the YEAR!
joshQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Yeah, I was wondering about the rig they used there. It didn’t seem consistent either.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
Right, swinging a larger bat at a faster speed might give you an advantage. It should have swung with a constant force, not constant velocity.
joshQuote Reply
Giancarlo Stanton is hard to get used to.
joshQuote Reply
Really even if you compare two bats of the same weight, the machine probably wouldn’t tell you if there was any advantage in having a bigger sweet spot. I think I read somewhere, though, that corked bats were more likely to break.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Would a hollowed-out wooden bat be less dense and thus provide a dampening force? Or would the hollow-ness cause it to act similarly to an aluminum bat though it is a different material?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Chris Sabo filled his bat with super balls. That actually seems like it would help more.
joshQuote Reply
I don’t remember the exact physics, but IIRC the problem with corking the bat is that it fucks up the restitution coefficent so less energy is transferred to the ball when you hit it.
BerseliusQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
Well, Mythbusters I guess said that the cork actually absorbs some of the kinetic energy of the ball. I don’t know if that is true or not. I really don’t know much about bat physics, I’ve just read mainly that speed is more important than weight. And that corked bats offered dubious advantages.
joshQuote Reply
@ Berselius:
Yeah, that one.
joshQuote Reply
Whether bat-corking works strikes me as a very difficult one to test. Using machines is flawed because they are only a rough approximation of how humans swing. However, it’s also impossible to do a true blinded test with people.
ACTQuote Reply
Josh Hamilton has 2 ABs and 0 HRs.
WTF HAMILTON!??!
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Jered Weaver found his super-secret weakness (Josh swings at a lot of pitches.)
ACTQuote Reply
Nelson Cruz just hit a grand slam.
ACTQuote Reply
Less physics nerd talk, more funny GIFs.
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
@ Steve Swisher:
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ ACT:
He found Jered’s weakness, I guess.
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
Jered’s weakness: he doesn’t throw very fast.
ACTQuote Reply
Weaver’s ERA hopped an entire point today.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
The Rangers’ offense leads the league in runs scored. The Rangers’ defense have also allowed the fewest runs in the league.
ACTQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
That’s more like it. Keep ’em coming!
Steve SwisherQuote Reply
False. Funsucker.
Aisle424Quote Reply
While I don’t deny anything that mb said, I have to ask this question:
How many World Series teams got there without the benefit of winning 4 of 6 in two series against contenders?
My guess is none, but I don’t want to rain on mb’s research, so I’ll let him check it out.
Assuming my guess of none is correct, or nearly so, then the Cubs have completed one of the criteria to get to the World Series!
What josh said:
SkipVBQuote Reply
One quick comment on the last thread about Dempster. There are points in articles where, when I encounter a certain phrase, I quit reading. In the case of the linked article that spurred mb21’s entry about Dempster, the phrase was, “by Jon Heyman.”
SkipVBQuote Reply
In case anyone asks Tom Petty this question…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-ql5NRZLnQ
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Rice Cube:
(dying laughing)
GBTSQuote Reply
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Schneider looks pretty hot there, but is that comment random, or some kind of reply to the post?
Marilyn HagertyQuote Reply
Aisle424 wrote:
Truly, indeed, a sad life he must, lead.
Suburban kidQuote Reply
Joe Poz on Pujols’ swing:
http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2012/05/capital-t-rhymes-with-p-stands-for.html
Rice CubeQuote Reply
new shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/the-children-are-the-future-cubs-minor-league-happenings-sponsored-by-select-a-seat.html
Even newer shit: http://obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/matt-garza-and-cubs-extension-talks-going-well.html
mb21Quote Reply