News broke today that the Cubs and the Rangers are the final two suitors in the Edwin Jackson regretstravaganza, after the failed pursuit of Anibal Sanchez last week. Now, reports are indicating that the Rangers will not be the high bid. The reported figures are somewhere in the 4 to 5 year range at around 12 to 13 per. If the Cubs were willing to go 5/75 for Sanchez, they shouldn't really hesitate to go 5/60 for Jackson either.
Sanchez is a better pitcher to be certain, but a cursory glance at the two pitchers does Jackson a real disservice. Sanchez has pitched 195.2 innings on average the past 3 years, and at a FIP of 3.40. That's studly, but also misleading. Sanchez missed time due to injury as recently as spring training this year, and has had more than his share of injuries throughout his career.
On the other hand, Edwin Jackson has been nothing short of a workhorse. He's averaged 32 starts a season ever since he's had a full season in the big leagues, 6 years ago. While he was no good at all his first couple seasons, you can attribute some of that to his being new. In the past 3 years, Jackson has had a marked improvement in first pitch strikes (from an average of 54% to 59%), and that's allowed him to work out of the zone deeper into the count. Working ahead of the count is a primary driver of getting strikeouts and ground balls (people just want to put it in play at that point), and those are sustainable recipes of success. Over the last 3 seasons, Jackson has thrown an average of 199.2 innings of 3.75 FIP ball. That's demonstrably worse than Sanchez but still very valuable.
A 5-year contract would bring Jackson into his age-33 season, which is not very far from a peak year. As an injury concern, Jackson has to be pretty low on your list of concerns. He's proven (repeatedly) that he has the stuff to consistenly work in the middle of a rotation. I don't set a TON of value by pitching WAR, but it seems to me that Jackson is a very good bet to give you 3 WAR a year on average over the next 5 years. If a win this year is worth 4.5 million (and I'd like to think it's around there), you'd expect a contract of 5/60 to provide you with 14.6 million in surplus value (5% inflation) over the next 5 years. That sounds right around what I'd expect, considering the non-neglible risk of injury and/or regression.
One last point to remember: free agency is only going to get more competitive (as the new CBA closes down avenues to outspend in other ways). We might not get another chance to add a mid-rotation piece this cheaply again. Next year's FA pitching class looks like David Weathers when we consider that most of those big names will get re-signed or extended. The Cubs have money, and their time for contention is sooner than you might think (we might put together a non-embarrassment in 2014, here's to hoping). We should get good players while they are available.
Last note: obviously I'd much rather have Jackson for 4 years/48 million. I don't think that will happen now, though if the rumors are true about where Sanchez might have signed had the Cubs not stepped in, that would have been an easy sign.
Comments
Was he the guy who the Cards picked up toward the end of the season two years ago? Or was that someone else?
joshQuote Reply
@ josh:
That was the guy.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
josh wrote:
The very same. He also pitched a no-hitter for the White Sox, the team that traded him to the Cardinals.
MylesQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Was that the 9-walk no-hitter?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ josh:
Yeah he was traded by the Blue Jays with other pieces to the Cardinals for…Corey Patterson (and other dudes who had more value). Fun times.
Sometimes I forget that Jackson came up at age 19, which is why I’m willing to sort of write off his first couple years in the bigs when he wasn’t very good. I was weary of the possibility of this signing when I first heard about it but I’m warming up to it.
BrandonQuote Reply
From B-Ref transactions blurb:
June 5, 2001: Drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 6th round of the 2001 amateur draft. Player signed June 18, 2001.
January 14, 2006: Traded by the Los Angeles Dodgers with Chuck Tiffany (minors) to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for Danys Baez and Lance Carter.
December 10, 2008: Traded by the Tampa Bay Rays to the Detroit Tigers for Matthew Joyce.
December 8, 2009: Traded as part of a 3-team trade by the Detroit Tigers to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Detroit Tigers sent Curtis Granderson to the New York Yankees. The New York Yankees sent Phil Coke and Austin Jackson to the Detroit Tigers. The New York Yankees sent Ian Kennedy to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Arizona Diamondbacks sent Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to the Detroit Tigers.
July 30, 2010: Traded by the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Chicago White Sox for David Holmberg (minors) and Daniel Hudson.
July 27, 2011: Traded by the Chicago White Sox with Mark Teahen to the Toronto Blue Jays for Jason Frasor and Zach Stewart.
July 27, 2011: Traded by the Toronto Blue Jays with Octavio Dotel, Corey Patterson, Marc Rzepczynski and cash to the St. Louis Cardinals for Trever Miller, Colby Rasmus, Brian Tallet and P.J. Walters.
October 30, 2011: Granted Free Agency.
February 2, 2012: Signed as a Free Agent with the Washington Nationals.
October 29, 2012: Granted Free Agency.
Wiki says that E-Jax’s no-hitter had 8 walks and one HBP, on 149 pitches for the D’Backs against the Rays in 2010.
He’s been on so many teams that nobody can keep track of all this shit (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Rice Cube wrote:
Just 8 walks, and I was wrong. Apparently the no-no was from his time in Arizona (the same year).
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA201006250.shtml
MylesQuote Reply
I’m also going to say that I will be far less disappointed about losing out on Edwin Jackson than when the Cubs lost out on Anibal Sanchez, and I was sort of “meh” about the Sanchez thing anyway. Of course, it’s not my money and I honestly am not one of the Cubs’ best customers.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Wow. Two non-profanity laced posts in one day. You are really classing up the place. Did you also design the new OV logo?
I’m dissapointed. I don’t feel like you are living up to OV standards. Next time you write an article, be sure to throw a couple “fucks” in there, if you give a fuck.
WaLiQuote Reply
@ Myles:
Cool, the internet agrees š I think AJ Burnett had the 9-walk no-hitter.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Brandon wrote:
Same here. It wasn’t until I really dug into some numbers that I realized he’s actually been pretty decent for longer than he had been awful, and there were some compelling (in my opinion) reasons as to why that probably is.
MylesQuote Reply
WaLi wrote:
I don’t take advice from jabronis, sorry
MylesQuote Reply
I’m glad they’re going after Jackson. I don’t think there’s much difference between Sanchez and Jackson when you factor in the injury risk. Jackson will likely come at a better price relative to what he’s worth too so he’ll have more value in a future trade.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ WaLi:
A friend of mine did that. We briefly entertained the idea of replacing the banner logo at the top with a smaller version of this logo next to the the banner ad that’s now at the top.
dmick89Quote Reply
@ dmick89:
Facepalm bear as the O was a nice touch.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
@ Myles:
(dying laughing) fair enough
@ dmick89:
It looks good
WaLiQuote Reply
Myles wrote:
I like how the new guy isn’t too lazy yet to hyperlink new shit
Suburban kidQuote Reply
New comic, because I’m bored. http://obstructedview.net/comics/the-dance.html
joshQuote Reply