DFP: Future Pen vs. Future Rotation

In Facepalm by GW

Neil Ramirez scoffs at such amateurish pantomimes.

Daniel Lewis Day

The Cubs signed pitcher Daniel Lewis out of the Cape Cod League yesterday. Lewis is 23, but took four years off to serve in the Air Force. He was reportedly reaching the high-90s on the Cape. Mark Gonzales has more. The one interesting takeaway for me is that this is another example of the Cubs favoring older pitchers with “fresh” arms. See also: the selection of Jake Stinnett in the second round over a host of more highly regarded high school arms.

The aging curve for pitchers has never been as well defined as for position players, likely because of the wear and tear that pitching inflicts on ligaments. There may be some benefit to targeting physically mature players with in tact connective tissue.

Future Bullpen

The Cubs are oddly well-positioned at the back-end of the bullpen for the next few years. Hector Rondon and Ramirez have pitched very well. Arodys Vizcaino is showing premium stuff at Iowa, and Armando Rivero has arguably been better in terms of results. Rivero has struck out 36% of hitters faced in his two minor league seasons, with a full 29% of those coming via the whiff. Both Vizcaino and Rivero could be called up at any time, but there isn’t a pressing need. Corey Black is currently starting for Tennessee, but also seems destined for a bullpen role.

Typically, good bullpens come together at the last minute as failed starters transition to new roles. The Cubs’ depth, however, is largely in pitchers with premium stuff who just don’t profile as starters for one reason or another. Unfortunately, the team is really going to need starters going forward, and there the outlook isn’t so rosy.

Future Starters

To that end, Ken Rosenthal is suggesting that the Cubs should go after David Price. Brett disagrees, and has the right of it, in my opinion. Almost all of Price’s value is tied up in the remainder of this season and next, when it is unlikely to be of much use to the team. There is something to be said for getting a player on the roster and securing favorable extension terms, but for pitchers as close to free agency as Price is, extensions aren’t necessarily such a great deal.

I’m not sure what the answer is, as none of the 2015 free agents are all that appealing for what they will cost. Justin Masterson has knee issues, control problems, and has always been shelled by lefties. In his case, I think Baseball Reference better reflects his value (10.4 career WAR) than Fangraphs does (15.3). Jon Lester has 1500+ innings on his arm and James Shields has 1800+. Max Scherzer turned down $144 million prior to this season.

Thus far, the team has been magnificent at finding starters on the cheap, but I don’t think that skill is as bankable as some others do. There’s a reason that they signed Edwin Jackson for $52 million: that’s what he was worth on the market, and trying to beat the market is a loser’s bet as often as not. Scott Feldman really is a 4.5 ERA pitcher; his sub-3.5 stretch with the Cubs was fortunate. Jason Hammel turned out to be healthy when most teams thought that he wasn’t. And usually when teams go looking for the next Jake Arrieta, they find the next Chris Volstad.

Future Journeymen Update

It was a quiet day on the minor league side of things.

  • Jorge Soler was 2 for 3 before being lifted as part of the Cubs’ efforts to keep his hamstrings healthy. He is slashing .405/.500/.798 in limited action this year.
  • Dan Straily pitched six innings for Iowa, striking out 7 and walking 2. He gave up 2 homers and 4 total runs. If Straily can regain some of his lost magic, it would go a long way toward’s improving the staff’s future outlook. The A’s are no slouches at evaluating pitchers, though, and they were trotting out one-dollar acquisition Brad Mills instead of Straily prior to the Jeff Samardzija trade.
  • Dan Vogelbach was 2 for 5 with Daytona. Vogelbach has been a disappointment on the whole, but it’s worth noting that most of his struggles have been against lefties. In his minor league career, he owns a .299/.389/.518 line against righties, versus .257/.344/.395 against southpaws.
  • Sahadev Sharma profiled Kyle Schwarber for ESPN yesterday, noting that the early reports on his receiving ability have been positive.

 

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