I’ve recently speculated, as has Bleacher Nation, that the Cubs’ payroll obligations at the moment is around $65 million. MLBTR just came out with a graphic touting the number as $61 million. I trust Brett and myself more than Tim, but we can all agree that $65 million is close.
Since that number is so low, we can all assume it’s going to increase this offseason, probably significantly. The actual number for the Cubs, though, is hard to get at. It seems most logical that the Cubs will go up to $100-110 million this year, as Brett described. However, I think it’s defensible to go as low as around $85 million (20th in MLB) and as high as $130 million (10th in MLB). That’s a huge discrepancy. What follows is an example offseason at $85, $105, and $130 million.
$85 million
This would leave the Cubs $20 MM to get upgrades. At this level, you can forget about any of the top pitchers, and probably Russell Martin as well (you couldn’t afford Martin AND a mid-tier pitcher, which is more important). Instead, this gives the Cubs one middle-tier pitcher and maybe a reclamation project.
Example offseason (1 pitcher/1 outfielder): Jason Hammel (3/$36), Norichika Aoki (2/$16)
Example offseason (2 pitchers): Brandon McCarthy (3/$39), Aaron Harang (1/$7) or Brett Anderson (1/$7)
$105 million
This adds another $20 MM to really bolster the team. One of the big 3 are in play here; the Cubs could also upgrade at either catcher or outfielder. Alternatively, they could sign Russell Martin and a big outfielder while still getting a second-tier pitcher.
Example Russell Martin offseason: Russell Martin (5/$70), Melky Cabrera (5/$70), Brandon McCarthy (3/$39)
Example Martin/ace offseason: Martin (5/$70), Jon Lester (6/$150)
Example Martin/2 pitchers offseason: Martin (5/$70), Ervin Santana (5/$65), Francisco Liriano (2/$30)
Example no Martin Offseason: Max Scherzer (7/$175), Brandon McCarthy (3/$39), Ichiro Suzuki (1/$3)
$130 million
If the Cubs get this high, they will certainly get 2 of the big-ticket FA names. I doubt the payroll climbs to this level, but they could definitely manage it. Literally double their current obligations, $65 million could but Scherzer AND Lester AND Martin.
Example offseason: Jon Lester (6/$150), James Shields (5/$110), Russell Martin (5/$75), Ichiro Suzuki (1/$3)
Looking at these contracts, I hope the Cubs shoot for $105 million or so. I’d like to get one big-ticket FA a year for the next couple years (even if it is a pitcher), and it allows us the flexibility to get another one next offseason (when Price/Zimmerman/Latos/Samardzija/Fister/Cueto could all become available). In any case, it should be pretty neat to see us actually active in free agency.