Cubs sign Scott Feldman

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The Cubs added another right handed starting pitcher to their team today when they signed Scott Feldman to a 1-year deal for $6 million. There's another million bucks in incentives. Although he hasn't come close to a full season pitched in terms of innings but one time in his career, he's been relatively healthy. He hasn't had an arm injury since 2006 and that was a forearm injury. He battled through a knee injury in 2010 and then missed most of 2011 due to a knee surgery.

Following his impressive 2009 season the Rangers bought out his final years of club control with a 2-year deal for $11.5 million. The Rangers held a $9.25 million club option for 2013, but declined it.

According to pitch f/x on Fangraphs, his most common pitch is a sinker that he threw at an average of 91.5 mph last year (91.7 in 2011 and just below 91 in 2010). He also throws a cutter, curveball, changeup and the occasional 4-seam fastball. He threw his cutter most often last year against lefties, which isn't too surprising. He threw the sinker more frequently against righties.

He keeps the ball on the ground and doesn't strike a lot of batters out (just 17.9% last year). He also doesn't walk many hitters (6% last year, 8% in his career).

Despite keeping the ball on the ground, and in the ballpark about as one would expect, he's never really had as good an ERA as you might expect. His career ERA is over 4.8 and he has a 4.56 FIP and 4.52 xFIP. He had an ERA over 5 last year, but his FIP and xFIP were in the 3.80s. He's a guy who has been up and down throughout his career though mostly he's just been down.

His career fWAR is only 8.7 in 727 innings. He has 4.7 career WARP and 3.0 rWAR. Over the past few seasons his fWAR is 3.9 in just under 300 innings. The WARP is 2.9 and his rWAR -0.7. His rWAR was -1.1 in 2010 and he followed that with 0.4 in 40+ innings and only 0.0 last year.

He has some upside, but then again, what MLB player doesn't? Throwing strikes is something this team hasn't excelled at over the past decade, but it's something the new front office is emphasizing. They're also going after pitchers will good control though the K-BB% is still probably not as good as the types of pitchers the Cubs went after before.

I don't think that's too surprising considering the type of player the Cubs are targeting. They're not going after the higher profile players, but rather the guys who might come at a bargain.

As far as bargains go, this one looks to be a pretty good one. CAIRO projects 100 innings pitched and a 4.73 ERA. it projects an FIP of 4.27 and 1.1 WAR. Those projections are for the Rangers so a move to the NL will lower those rates a bit and increase the WAR. Bill James projects a 4.19 ERA and 4.14 FIP while Guru projects and ERA over 5.

It seems to me that Guru is probably a little too pessimistic while Bill James a little too optimistic. That said, I expect Feldman to be worth a little over a win and be worth the $6 million he's being paid. There's the possibility he's much worse or a little better making him a good bargain.

It's a good sign by the Cubs. There's little to risk and potentially something to gain. If Feldman can show that last season is something that can be repeated the Cubs get a chance to have a solid 3rd or 4th starter and someone they could extend.

Dave Cameron put it well here:

Feldman might not have the reputation of a quality starter yet, but he’s shown the skills necessary to become a perfectly acceptable middle-of-the-rotation innings eater. Last year, he ran a 3/1 K/BB ratio while maintaining an average ground ball rate, putting him in the same xFIP range as guys like Kyle Lohse, Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, and Dan Haren,. He doesn’t have the same track record of success as those guys, but he’s also going to cost a fraction of the price, and offers the same low BB/average K/average GB skillset.

In a more friendly home ballpark and with better results at stranding runners, Feldman projects to be something not too far from a league average starting pitcher in 2013. And, while he’s going to be labeled a stop-gap type of signing, he doesn’t turn 30-years-old until February, so there’s no reason to think that the Cubs can’t extract longer term value from him if he pitches well in 2013. With Feldman and Baker, the Cubs have added a couple of pieces to their rotation who aren’t just pump-and-dump guys, but could be solid pieces to build future rotations around as well. This isn’t just patching a hole because the Cubs need arms for next season – these deals are investments in buying low on pitchers who could be part of the next good Cubs team, even if that team is still several years away.

There's a bit of a small sample size issue when he compares Feldman's last 150 innings to those of Dempster, Jackson, Lohse and Haren who have consistently put up above average xFIPs. Prior to the previous 150, Feldman had been much worse so take the sample size stuff written there with a grain of salt.

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  1. GBTS

    In all seriousness, Marvin Miller is probably the second most important baseball figure of the 20th century next to Jackie Robinson. I hope he gets his fair share of praise in the coming days.

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  2. WaLi

    PFD wrote:

    @mb21
    Fangraphs apparently loves the signing. Cameron wrote it up.
    Also, came across this comment in the chat, which I’m not sure I agree with:

    Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
    Garza/Samardzija/Baker/Feldman/T. Wood – that’s an above average NL rotation, no?
    Jeff Sullivan:
    it’s fine

    It’s definitely better than what we finished with last year. We might get to 63 wins next year!

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  3. Aisle424

    I can see that rotation, if it remains healthy AND intact for the full season leading to 75 wins or so. But Garza and Baker are far from guaranteed to stay healthy and if everything goes well enough for them to possibly win 75, at least 2 of those guys are getting traded.

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  4. WaLi

    mb21 wrote:

    I’d put Buck O’Neil right after Jackie.

    I think Jackie should be summarily dismissed from the HOF and not be allowed back in until Buck O’neil is admitted.

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  5. uncle dave

    I think it’s a pretty good move. There’s no real downside here with a one-year deal, and he’s the type of guy who you can put in front of a solid defense and get some decent numbers from. If he does well on the traditional metrics like ERA, he suddenly becomes valuable at the deadline and could bring back a decent return.

    This is pretty much the type of move I’d expect the Cubs to make this year.

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  6. GBTS

    The Rays just signed an All-Star 3B for $100 million, and the Cubs sign a mediocre starter for $6 million? Is Theo even trying to win a World Series? Why is he not offering $200 million to Matt Cain?

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  7. Rice Cube

    GBTS wrote:

    The Rays just signed an All-Star 3B for $100 million, and the Cubs sign a mediocre starter for $6 million? Is Theo even trying to win a World Series? Why is he not offering $200 million to buy Matt Cain from the Giants?

    There’s that…

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  8. PFD

    Made the mistake of foraying into the comments at BCB, but did come across this John Arguello write up on Valbuena

    What would you say if there was a 27 year old 3B on the market who hits LH, grinds out ABs, and take walks? What if he was also a plus defender? Then suppose he was also a buy low candidate, slated to make near the MLB minimum? What if he was coming off a season where he raked in AAA, only to come to the majors and put up a .260 BABIP — a number that brought his batting average way down but is unlikely to stay at that low level? What if he was once considered a talented prospect who is lauded for his mental makeup? Lastly, what if this player went to play winter ball this year and his hitting to the tune of .341/.455/.593 (1.049 OPS)? Sounds like a good fit and a solid bounce back candidate the Cubs should consider signing off the bargain bin, doesn’t it?

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  9. PFD

    I mention it was a mistake to read BCB comments because of gems like this:

    FWIW
    Feldman will be the Cubs’ first Jewish player since Sam Fuld. Or, if you keep track of Jewish players who are observant (Fuld is only half-Jewish), since Jason Marquis.
    by Al Yellon on Nov 27, 2012 10:12 AM CST reply

    Irrelevant dude.
    by santoswoodenlegs on Nov 27, 2012 10:44 AM CST up reply

    Is it necessary to do this?
    No, it is not.
    by Al Yellon on Nov 27, 2012 10:46 AM CST up reply

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  10. Rice Cube

    @ PFD:
    The Cubs may tender Valbuena (he’s projected to earn under $1MM anyway) but I think they haven’t given up on Ian Stewart yet. I’m also curious as to how serious they were about Jeff Keppinger.

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  11. Aisle424

    The Cubs added another right handed starting pitcher to their team today when they signed Scott Feldman to a 1-year deal for $6 million. There’s another million bucks in incentives. Although he hasn’t come close to a full season pitched in terms of innings but one time in his career, he’s been relatively healthy. He hasn’t had an arm injury since 2006 and that was a forearm injury. He battled through a knee injury in 2010 and then missed most of 2011 due to a knee surgery.

    Following his impressive 2009 season the Rangers bought out his final years of club control with a 2-year deal for $11.5 million. The Rangers held a $9.25 million club option for 2013, but declined it.

    According to pitch f/x on Fangraphs, his most common pitch is a sinker that he threw at an average of 91.5 mph last year (91.7 in 2011 and just below 91 in 2010). He also throws a cutter, curveball, changeup and the occasional 4-seam fastball. He threw his cutter most often last year against lefties, which isn’t too surprising. He threw the sinker more frequently against righties.

    He keeps the ball on the ground and doesn’t strike a lot of batters out (just 17.9% last year). He also doesn’t walk many hitters (6% last year, 8% in his career).

    Despite keeping the ball on the ground, and in the ballpark about as one would expect, he’s never really had as good an ERA as you might expect. His career ERA is over 4.8 and he has a 4.56 FIP and 4.52 xFIP. He had an ERA over 5 last year, but his FIP and xFIP were in the 3.80s. He’s a guy who has been up and down throughout his career though mostly he’s just been down.

    His career fWAR is only 8.7 in 727 innings. He has 4.7 career WARP and 3.0 rWAR. Over the past few seasons his fWAR is 3.9 in just under 300 innings. The WARP is 2.9 and his rWAR -0.7. His rWAR was -1.1 in 2010 and he followed that with 0.4 in 40+ innings and only 0.0 last year.

    He has some upside, but then again, what MLB player doesn’t? Throwing strikes is something this team hasn’t excelled at over the past decade, but it’s something the new front office is emphasizing. They’re also going after pitchers will good control though the K-BB% is still probably not as good as the types of pitchers the Cubs went after before.

    I don’t think that’s too surprising considering the type of player the Cubs are targeting. They’re not going after the higher profile players, but rather the guys who might come at a bargain.

    As far as bargains go, this one looks to be a pretty good one. CAIRO projects 100 innings pitched and a 4.73 ERA. it projects an FIP of 4.27 and 1.1 WAR. Those projections are for the Rangers so a move to the NL will lower those rates a bit and increase the WAR. Bill James projects a 4.19 ERA and 4.14 FIP while Guru projects and ERA over 5.

    It seems to me that Guru is probably a little too pessimistic while Bill James a little too optimistic. That said, I expect Feldman to be worth a little over a win and be worth the $6 million he’s being paid. There’s the possibility he’s much worse or a little better making him a good bargain.

    It’s a good sign by the Cubs. There’s little to risk and potentially something to gain. If Feldman can show that last season is something that can be repeated the Cubs get a chance to have a solid 3rd or 4th starter and someone they could extend.

    Dave Cameron put it well here:

    Feldman might not have the reputation of a quality starter yet, but he’s shown the skills necessary to become a perfectly acceptable middle-of-the-rotation innings eater. Last year, he ran a 3/1 K/BB ratio while maintaining an average ground ball rate, putting him in the same xFIP range as guys like Kyle Lohse, Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, and Dan Haren,. He doesn’t have the same track record of success as those guys, but he’s also going to cost a fraction of the price, and offers the same low BB/average K/average GB skillset.

    In a more friendly home ballpark and with better results at stranding runners, Feldman projects to be something not too far from a league average starting pitcher in 2013. And, while he’s going to be labeled a stop-gap type of signing, he doesn’t turn 30-years-old until February, so there’s no reason to think that the Cubs can’t extract longer term value from him if he pitches well in 2013. With Feldman and Baker, the Cubs have added a couple of pieces to their rotation who aren’t just pump-and-dump guys, but could be solid pieces to build future rotations around as well. This isn’t just patching a hole because the Cubs need arms for next season – these deals are investments in buying low on pitchers who could be part of the next good Cubs team, even if that team is still several years away.

    There’s a bit of a small sample size issue when he compares Feldman’s last 150 innings to those of Dempster, Jackson, Lohse and Haren who have consistently put up above average xFIPs. Prior to the previous 150, Feldman had been much worse so take the sample size stuff written there with a grain of salt.

    Is it necessary to do this?
    No, it is not.

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  12. Berselius

    PFD wrote:

    FWIW
    Feldman will be the Cubs’ first Jewish player since Sam Fuld. Or, if you keep track of Jewish players who are observant (Fuld is only half-Jewish), since Jason Marquis.
    by Al Yellon on Nov 27, 2012 10:12 AM CST reply

    Irrelevant jabroni.
    by santoswoodenlegs on Nov 27, 2012 10:44 AM CST up reply

    Is it necessary to do this?
    No, it is not.
    by Al Yellon on Nov 27, 2012 10:46 AM CST up reply

    ;

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  13. Berselius

    GBTS wrote:

    In all seriousness, Marvin Miller is probably the second most important baseball figure of the 20th century next to Jackie Robinson. I hope he gets his fair share of praise in the coming days.

    This.

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  14. GBTS

    @ PFD:
    I felt like I was one of the few people here who wasn’t abhorred by Valbuena this season. I think I only saw every single one of his at bats where he got a hit this year, because his actual numbers are grossly below what I would have guessed based on the limited games I watched.

    I also like the idea of Valbuena being a “bounce back” candidate, which is like saying that Herman Cain is a “bounce back” presidential contender in 2016.

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  15. Mish

    GBTS wrote:

    I felt like I was one of the few people here who wasn’t abhorred by Valbuena this season. I think I only saw every single one of his at bats where he got a hit this year, because his actual numbers are grossly below what I would have guessed based on the limited games I watched.

    sadly I had this impression as well given my infrequent Cubs viewing (I usually spent the time I would normally spend watching Cubs game for drinking bleach, which appears to have been better for my long term health than being a Cubs fan).

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  16. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    GBTS wrote:

    which is like saying that Herman Cain is a “bounce back” presidential contender in 2016.

    Irrelevant dude

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  17. josh

    @ Aisle424:
    Aw, dude, when I was in college I had a friend who was obsessed with wrestling and would walk around quoting The Rock’s speeches all the time, down to the dramatic inhales. God damn that was annoying

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  18. Mish

    I used to be into pro wrestling (circa 1993 – 2001) so I instantly picked up where “jabroni” was from. I have a) no idea if that term is still used by The Rock (or if he even wrestles these days) or b) no idea that assholes actually used this term in normal dialogue.

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  19. WenningtonsGorillaCock

    LaHair ———> taking his talents to/saving face with the Softbank Hawks

    looks like this got announced last week. I don’t read every word, bro

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  20. Mish

    Carlos Ruiz just got suspended for 25 games and no Cubs players give enough of a crap to try using chemicals to make themselves better at baseball?? WHAT IS THEO DOING!?

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  21. Aisle424

    Rice Cube wrote:

    @ Mish:
    There’s a 25 game suspension penalty? I thought it started at 50 unless amphetamines aren’t considered a PED in that class.

    Amphetamines only perk you up and don’t make you stronger so you can hit more homeruns, so they are less bad.

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  22. mb21

    @ WaLi:
    To put this rotation into perspective we can actually just use the 2012 version. Baker and Feldman are replacing Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm. Each of those two pitchers is better than Baker or Feldman. If the Cubs had Baker and Feldman last year, this probably would have been their opening day rotation: Dempster, Garza, Maholm, Baker, Feldman.

    That’s probably better than we expected last opening day with J-Sam in the rotation, but he turned ot to be pretty good. Volstad was only started over Wood because Wood had a poor spring training (silly sample size decisions). Knowing what we know now about the starters from last year, it’s definitely a better rotation than they’re going to run out in 2013.

    /pissing on the parade

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  23. mb21

    @ GBTS:
    I didn’t mind Valbuena, but a bounce back candidate? He probably will bounce back from being horrible, but usually a bounce back candidate means two things: the player has the potential to be at least average or better and he’s been at least average or better before. Valbuena is neither. Maybe he’s a bounce candidate, but even that I don’t buy.

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  24. Andrew

    @ mb21:
    I doubt the work on the rotation is done. Considering Theo talks about going 9 deep, I doubt he wants to depend on Baker starting the season healthy. That’s why I am still expecting one more signing which will really determine where our rotation will be. I’d love them to go for Anibal, but I kinda doubt they will. I’m expecting they will be in on one of McCarthy, Marcum, or other guys. A rotation of Garza, Samardzija, Marcum/McCarthy, Baker (Wood if hes not ready yet) and Feldman I think would be better than what they started with last year.

    I think the goal is to flip some of the guys like Garza, Feldman, and Baker and give some guys like Vizcaino, Whitenack, Bowden, and Cabrera (who are being converted to starters) a chance to get ready in AAA and come in halfway through the season to show what they can do. Hopefully one of those guys can stick in the rotation as cost controlled decent starters.

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  25. mb21

    @ Andrew:
    I don’t think they’re done either, but whether or not they’re better is something I think is mostly irrelevant. They’re not going to be much better, if at all. Right now they aren’t, but adding someone like Marcum probably makes them a little better though still not as good at the top of the rotation.

    I also think they’ll try to trade some of these guys and hopefully they turn in good first halves to help with that.

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  26. Rizzo the Rat

    I just came up with a better way to determine draft order. Teams pick in order of how long they’ve been playing since their last World Series berth (tie goes to the loser of the series). This way, the draft doesn’t incentivise losing and promotes rapid turnover of championship teams.

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  27. EnricoPallazzo

    i was looking up the urbandictionary definition of “jabroni” that RC linked to above and saw that there was also a definition for “jabrony” so i clicked on it:

    “A mixture between ping pong, pool, and golf. A gentlemen’s sport in which the player must land the ball in various holes by serving the ball ping pong style. This game was originated in the Kelly household and will go down as the greatest game ever made.”

    maybe this is what the guys from rant meant to say. also i would like to play that game.

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  28. EnricoPallazzo

    deinition #17:

    “Jay Mariotti of the Chicago Sun-Times, as referred to by Woody Paige on the television program ‘Around the Horn.'”

    that’s right, mb (or whoever) got compared to jay fucking mariotti.

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  29. JonKneeV

    Berselius wrote:

    @ mb21:

    They should do something more arbitrary, like say giving teams with the fewest letters in their team name high picks.

    Oakland would be pretty happy with this.

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  30. Mish

    I have caved to peer pressure and ordered Homeland Season 1. Pretty excited, even tho Amazon is currently out of stock. (dying laughing)

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  31. mb21

    Did Broxton become a bad pitcher or something? I look at his stats and with the exception of 12 innings in 2011 he’s been pretty damn good throughout his career. They only need about 4.3 wins from Broxton over 3 years to get equal value and that’s if the value of the win starts at $5 million this year (probably starts closer to $5.5 or higher). So somewhere between 4 and 4.4 wins is what he’s being paid for. He’ll probably have an average FIP projection of around 3.00 so really, the only question about him being worth that amount is whether or not he stays healthy.

    I wouldn’t call it a good contract, but I wouldn’t call it a bad one either.

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  32. Suburban kid

    @ mb21:
    I’m guessing the (dying laughing) who was on the Cubs in 2012, not the (dying laughing) who was on the Cubs in 2006. (dying laughing) may be the hardest working man in baseball, but I don’t think he needs to play winter ball.

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