Cubs interested in Brandon McCarthy and Shaun Marcum

In Commentary And Analysis, News And Rumors by dmick8965 Comments

We first heard about the Cubs possible interest in Brandon McCarthy a couple days ago and Gordon Whittenmeyer is confirming the Cubs interest, as well as throwing another name out there: Shaun Marcum.

With starting pitching the Cubs’ primary focus again this winter, they already have expressed interest in Athletics right-hander Brandon McCarthy, who was having a good season until suffering a skull fracture when hit by a line drive in September. He underwent surgery and didn’t pitch again this season but appears to be healthy enough for a comeback effort in 2013.

Brewers free agent Shaun Marcum, a 2009 Tommy John surgery graduate who missed two months in 2012 with elbow tightness, is another buy-low candidate the Cubs are eyeing — and a guy whose character they know well through manager Dale Sveum and pitching coach Chris Bosio.

Marcum has been a better than average starter over the last few seasons. He averaged over 3 WAR per season in 2010 and 2011 and had somewhat of a down season last year, but was still productive. He had a 3.70 ERA and 4.14 FIP last year. His strikeout percentage was almost identical to what it was in 2010 and 2011 (20-21%). His walk percentage was up just a bit to 7.8% from 6.9% and 6.0% the previous two seasons.

Marcum has never been a high strikeout percentage, but he's never had trouble striking them out either. This has always surprised me considering his velocity is rarely better than 90 mph. His average fastball last year was less than 87 and it was about the same as the year before.

I was a bit concerned about Dan Haren's drop in velocity because he had relied on it to some extent to strike batters out, but Marcum has done so without the velocity. If his medical report is solid, I think this would be a good pickup for the Cubs.

He can probably be expected to contribute about 2 WAR or so, which makes him worth approximately $10 million on the free agent market. Considering the injury risk, I'd not be willing to go that high and I'd want at least a club option added to the deal too. I'm not sure he could be add for only 1 year, but it's possible Marcum wants to prove he's healthy and hit the free agent market next season.

If the Cubs were to sign both of these guys, the Cubs rotation would suddenly look like a strength when you add in Matt Garza and Jeff Samardzija. It's also a rotation that is flirting with disaster.

You've got the injury prone McCarthy, a pitcher who has perhaps recovered from an elbow injury and another pitcher who hasn't yet shown he has recovered from an arm injury in Garza. Then you have Samardzija who is coming off of only one good season and he's yet to pitch a full year. After him you've got Travis Wood and a bunch of nothing. That could be a fun rotation, but it could also lead to a rotation that is headlined by a struggling Samardzija and Wood followed by the likes of Brooks Raley and Chris Rusin.

That would probably be even less fun than 2012. The question is, is the potential upside worth it? If both of them prove they're healthy, could the Cubs get a decent return midseason like they did with Paul Maholm? They have nothing to lose.

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  6. WaLi

    If the Cubs were to sign both of these guys, the Cubs rotation would suddenly look like a strength when you add in Matt Garza and Jeff Samardzija.

    Stop creating hope for 2013.

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  15. GW

    When Marcum was hurt, he made comments to the effect that he was going to come back and tough it out, play through the pain. And he seemed to pitch worse after coming back. I would stay away unless the medicals look great.

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  17. mb21

    @ GW:
    You’re right. He wasn’t very good after the return. I still wouldn’t mind him, but probably only a 1 year deal for around 6-8 million with a club option.

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  21. jtsunami

    So we can’t trade Almora or Soler correct? If somehow, some way they can get him and keep Baez, Castro, and Rizzo, I’ll buy tickets to 4 games next year (dying laughing)

    Rereading that, it can’t happen. (dying laughing)

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  24. jtsunami

    @ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
    IIRC, that is to give him leverage where if the D’Backs find a trade with the Cubs, the Cubs have to agree to a contract extension with him before he would waive the NTC.

    I could be wrong, although I believe we commented about it here before.

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  34. mb21

    @ jtsunami:
    You can’t trade anyone who hasn’t been in the minor league organization for less than a year without their approval (essentially a no-trade clause). I think they have to include Baez to get a deal to get Upton and that’s just fine with me. Probably takes more than Baez, but maybe not much more. The Cubs can get it done if they want.

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  35. Suburban kid

    @ GBTS:
    Your stupid blog wouldn’t let me leave a comment at first, because someone who has an account on WordPress has already used the email address sk@sk.sk

    (dying laughing)

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  36. GBTS

    mb21 wrote:

    GBTS wrote:

    Hey so I started a stupid blog

    You need to work on your advertising skills (dying laughing)

    GBTS Blog: It’s a Way of Blog

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  46. SVB

    Is there any way to literally farm prospects? Because I think if the Cubs could actually physically grow some adult men who can play baseball (in an off-shore facility is fine) then maybe we can field a team.

    I once wrote a paper for a grad class that suggested this very thing. It was soon after human cloning became a major topic. The prof was a Sox fan, so I suggested the Reinsdorph would clone Albert Belle and pay poor inner city Chicago women to surrogate the kids. That seemed within the realm of possibility, based on the public personae of the folks involved. I was kind of bored with the assignment and decided to have fun with it. My grade wasn’t too good on the paper. Turns out the science was maybe OK, but the rest was pretty insulting, I guess. (dying laughing) (dying laughing)

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  48. Rice Cube

    The Reds view Aroldis Chapman as a starting pitcher long-term and they could make him a starter in 2013 if they acquire a free agent reliever. “If we re-sign Ryan Madson or [Jonathan] Broxton or someone else it would allow us to move Chapman to the rotation,” Jocketty said. Pitching coach Bryan Price feels strongly that Chapman can become a top of the rotation starter.
    Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#hCERAF2HX76UUayo.99

    Or maybe they can put Chapman in the rotation anyway and move a shittier pitcher to the bullpen?

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  50. Rizzo the Rat

    I’d love to see what Aroldis could accomplish as a starter, but right now he’s almost a one-pitch pitcher (it’s a helluva pitch, but still…)

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  52. SVB

    @ GBTS:
    If you can get a little cred on the blog from other sites, then OV might absorb you, furthering their Google-like business model of just buying what they want.

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  57. GW

    @ Mish:

    In hearing contacts refer to him as, “Ricki Lake”, there’s doubt as to whether or not he’ll ever surface as a contributing big leaguer.

    ah yes, the comp to a 90s talk show host does raise serious doubts.

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  61. Berselius

    GW wrote:

    ah yes, the comp to a 90s talk show host does raise serious doubts.

    We’d know they really liked him if they compared him to some obscure micro-indie musical troupe.

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  62. EnricoPallazzo

    from HJE:
    “Incidentally, I met a girl over the weekend whose father has Wrigley Field seats right behind home plate. Because of the nature of his business, he gets quite a bit of inside access to team events. This girl had a chance to meet Crane, who was greasily hanging all over a girl who was young enough to be his daughter, and who seemed loose enough to be a hooker. According to this girl, Crane was “disgusting.” She also mentioned that pretty much everyone in the organization despises him. So, every horrible thing you’ve ever thought about Crane Kenney is probably completely accurate.”

    @ Suburban kid:
    who is the guy on the bike that gets destroyed? campana?

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