Back in April I compared the Cubs players to their projections and intended to do it once a month. Instead, you get once every two months. Or if we averae the 2+ months of the season you are getting it once a month. So there.
These stats are updated through Monday’s games. Holy crap, Reed Johnson. It’s not even close when it comes to who has most outperformed their projection. In nearly 3 times fewer plate appearances, Reed Johnson has produced as many runs as Geovany Soto. Starlin Castro leads the team in wRC with 33.6 and Fukudome is the only other with 30 or more. Tyle Colvin has been worse than Reed Johnson has been good. The Cubs expected a lot of offense from Ramirez, Pena and Soto. Instead, they’ve produced 21.2 runs fewer than we expected them to through the number of plate appearances they have. Darwin Barney has been better than we though of course. He’s going to be out only 2 weeks after landing on the DL because of a small explosion inside his knee. I’m skeptical of the return date if it is a Grade 3 tear/sprain/strain. It can’t be that bad.
Matt Garza has been ridiculously good this season when it comes to the stats he fully controls (strikeouts, walks, hit by pitch and home runs). He’s been almost 2 full runs per 9 better than projected (using FIP of course). The players at the bottom of the list have performed well below expectations, but none of them have many innings. Dempster’s FIP is basically as we expected, but his RA is -1.4 runs worse per 9. A lot of that is luck, which was true with Garza early in the season.
You can look at the information and do with what you want. It’s pretty simple: how the players have performed compared to what we expected. Sample sizes for most of the players is still a big issue and almost all of the pitchers it’s an even bigger issue.