Cubs @ Brewers (5-19-2016) Game Thread

In Game Threads by dmick8996 Comments

Time: 12:40 CT
TV: CSN, MLB Network
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Gameday

LINEUPS

Cubs

Dexter Fowler, CF
Jason Heyward, RF
Kris Bryant, 3B
Anthony Rizzo, 1B
Ben Zobrist, 2B
Jorge Soler, LF
Addison Russell, SS
Miguel Montero, C
Jason Hammel,  P

Brewers

Jonathan Villar, SS
Alex Presley, LF
Scooter Gennett, 2B
Chris Carter, 1B
Kirk Nieuwenhuis, CF
Domingo Santana, RF
Hernan Perez, 3B
Martin Maldonado, C
Junior Guerra, P

Will the Cubs win? No, but it could go either way.

538 Forecast: 57% chance of winning

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Comments

  1. SK

    Freaky. I just experienced the other person’s name and email in the robot form glitch. I refreshed it to normal before remembering to make note of Myles’s email in case I ever need a fake one to dodge spammers.

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  2. Rice Cube

    I believe The Book talked about using a pitcher-OF defensive platoon where you have a LOOGY on the mound against LHB and the ROOGY in the OF on the non-pull side of the field. They swap when RHB is at bat. I thought it was a good idea given that pitchers shag fly balls in BP anyway, but in practice I’m not sure how good pitchers are at defense. However I have seen pitchers make plays in the OF in actual game situations…Roy Oswalt comes to mind.

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  3. myles

    SK:
    Rice Cube,

    Presumably he was mentally prepared that day.

    (holy crap, I got RC’s name and email in the form below)

    Please remain calm and stay where you are for deletion. Erm, I mean…yeah, deletion.

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  4. SK

    Apparently the last time two Cubs changed position during an inning was as far back as 14 hours ago. Pat and Ron thought it was hilarious when Bryant and Baez swapped gloves.

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  5. Author
    dmick89

    josh,

    He was signed through this season when the Cubs traded for him. He’s alright if he’s hitting, and I expect he’ll hit fine by the end of the season, but when he’s not hitting he sucks.

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  6. josh

    dmick89,

    Ah okay.

    It’s bad when you’re like “David Ross should be playing more.”

    Will Montero be next year’s cross when they call up Contreras?

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  7. Author
    dmick89

    josh,

    Probably not. Montero will be able to get a starting job somewhere. They’ll probably just sign a strong defensive catcher to backup Contreras.

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  8. berselius

    dmick89:
    josh,

    Defensive adjustment for catcher is pretty big. It’s the most difficult position to play.

    IIRC Montero’s supposed to be a pretty good framer, but I’m still skeptical of framing stats because aside from Castillo it sounds like all MLB catchers are from Lake Woebegon.

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  9. Myles

    It’s hard to believe that just 5 days ago I was thinking this team would win 110. We’re still really good, but man has it been a rough week.

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  10. berselius

    Myles:
    It’s hard to believe that just 5 days ago I was thinking this team would win 110. We’re still really good, but man has it been a rough week.

    Last year’s team got swept by the Phillies. Shit happens *shrug*

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  11. Author
    dmick89

    berselius,

    Yeah, I’m not sure how much I trust catcher defensive stats.

    The more I see of Soler, the more I miss Schwarber. I know Theo and others in the organization are still high on Soler, but if they’re right, surely another organization is equally high on him. Find that organization and trade him if they’re that certain he deserves to be starting. He just shouldn’t be starting for this team as much as he has been. I’m not a huge Baez fan, but I’ll take him over Soler any time.

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  12. Author
    dmick89

    berselius,

    Yeah, not only have they played like shit in what is just one series. They’re leaving with at least one win in a road series. Pretty good actually.

    But yeah, it’s weeks like this why 110 wins is so damn difficult. Every team is going to play like shit for an extended period of time.

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  13. cerulean

    Myles:
    It’s hard to believe that just 5 days ago I was thinking this team would win 110. We’re still really good, but man has it been a rough week.

    If the Cubs lose today, they will have a .718 win‰—good for 116 wins. Their current .737 win‰ is good for 119 wins.

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  14. Author
    dmick89

    josh,

    They would. There’s also not a lot of point in optioning him to the minors unless you just want him to play every day. FedEx is still on the roster so you’re stuck just trying to get him some playing time.

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  15. Myles

    cerulean: If the Cubs lose today, they will have a .718 win‰—good for 116 wins. Their current .737 win‰ is good for 119 wins.

    It’s more like what type of team they are going forward. I have the Cubs’ true talent at around 102 wins. That means they are “on pace” for 106 wins this season. For them to win 111 games, they have to have a true talent level of around 107 wins now.

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  16. Author
    dmick89

    Myles,

    538 has them at 105 prior to today’s game and BP had them at about 100 last I checked (a few days ago). I still think 100 is closer to what I expect. If I had to pick how many games I think they win right now, I’d probably say 100. We’ve seen them at their best, but we’re going to get stretches like this (and probably worse). If they play like this against the Giants and Cardinals it could be an ugly road trip.

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  17. Author
    dmick89

    Just realized the Cubs have already lost more games than the Warriors did in the regular season. That’s hard to believe since the Cubs have been so awesome so far.

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  18. JonKneeV

    Over the last 4 weeks, Dexter Fowler is down to .266/.385/.392/.778.

    Still great production from a CF, but it would appear the hot streak has ended.

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  19. Myles

    JonKneeV:
    Over the last 4 weeks, Dexter Fowler is down to .266/.385/.392/.778.

    Still great production from a CF, but it would appear the hot streak has ended.

    Yeah, I’ll take that for a whole season please.

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  20. uncle dave

    We’re here at Miller Park, where we’ve secretly replaced the Cubs’ bats with Folgers Crystals. Let’s see if anyone notices!

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  21. Millertime

    EnricoPallazzo,

    I thought maybe it meant an abnormal amount of Nationals players were interested in fictional anthropomorphic animal characters with human personalities and characteristics.

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  22. cerulean

    Myles: It’s more like what type of team they are going forward. I have the Cubs’ true talent at around 102 wins. That means they are “on pace” for 106 wins this season. For them to win 111 games, they have to have a true talent level of around 107 wins now.

    Projection, not possibility. I don’t know what their true talent is, but I would assume that a projection of true talent would be right at the 50/50 chance of exceeding the projection. While this 3–5 stretch where little has gone right offensively decreases their chances of reaching such heights, if they go 28–11 nearly 3 more times, they will tie the all-time wins record. They are severely underperforming their expected wins, so I don’t think that implausible, even if it would happen less than half the time. That’s all.

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  23. Author
    dmick89

    I think it’s plausible, which is awfully impressive. It’s kind of crazy to think about it really. 110 is plausible. 90 is plausible. Anything less than 90 seems far-fetched. 90 wins is a pretty good season and it’s almost impossible for this team to not win 90 or more. Fun season.

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  24. cerulean

    While the recent games have sucked, this should put a smile on any Cubfan’s face:

    The Cubs’ record including the playoffs since:

    • the Maddon ear began: 129–81 (100 wins over 162)
    • the start of June: 103–59 (the last 162 games)
    • the All-Star break: 82–41 (108 wins over 162)
    • the start of August: 74–34 (111 wins over 162)

    The Cubs’ record excluding the playoffs since:

    • the Maddon ear began: 125–76 (101 wins over 162)
    • May 21st: 103–59 (the last 162 regular season games)
    • the All-Star break: 78–36 (111 wins over 162)
    • the start of August: 70–29 (114 wins over 162)

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