Cubs being Cubs (injury report)

In Commentary And Analysis by myles88 Comments

Scott Baker has retired 1 batter in spring training. Unfortunately, he faced 6 of them. After his Spring Training performance, he decided that something wasn't right

Baker is going to meet with a doctor this weekend, and until then he'll do nothing. We already knew that Baker wasn't really going to pitch until mid-April at the earliest, but having elbow problems after Tommy John is obviously disconcerting. Baseball has been getting better and better results from TJS in recent years, but the recovery rate (obviously) is not 100%. If Baker has to go under the knife again (and it's a definite possibility, but by no means guaranteed), there's a great chance Baker will receive 5.5 million dollars from the Cubs to retire a single batter in a meaningless game in March. 

Nice work, if you can get it…

With Garza's indefinite absence, the rotation is shaping up to be Shark, EJax, Wood, Feldman, and Villanueva. Dale Sveum has said that Drew Carpenter is the 6th starter, but I hope not. He's been in AAA for the last 5 years and is the ethos of replacement-level starting pitching. Both Rusin and Bowden are 2 years younger (at 25) and could actually end up being passable 5th options (though it is basically splitting hairs). If you ask me, I'd got with Rusin; he's a leftie, and everyone else in the rotation except Wood is a righthander. 

Ian Stewart is also on the DL again. The move actually helps his chances of making the team, because he doesn't take up a roster spot. I think we've all basically just assumed that he's never going to return at 100% for this team, and he'll be paid his $2 million or whatever and ride off into the sunset. I'm not that mad about (considering the going rate for project middle relievers is $3 million).

I didn't want this to turn into a rant, but oh well. Is there a greater example of how stupid the new IFA rules are than this? If Rivero signed 2 years ago, he'd be a nobody that got $75,000 to fill a roster somewhere. However, now there are only 3 places in which you can use financial resources to compete for "talent": free agency, the "posting" system, and IFA that don't qualify under their spending limitations. The demand for talent is still high, but the supply of free market talent is low. Thus, the prices for that talent rises, to the point that we paid Armando Rivero $3.1 million to relieve at AA this year. When people are talking about about your multi-million acquisitions with the phrases "maybe a middle reliever" and "doesn't have a plus secondary pitch", it's time to wonder if the system is working as intended. 

As for the MLB club, I've talked about the rotation. In the bullpen, I think it's pretty clear:

Rondon is the Rule V mopup guy. He's apparently been adequate.
Takahashi has a great shot at the lefty out of the bullpen. He's not a traditional LOOGY, but he's a fine bullpen janitor (cleans up the shit).
Camp is a fine 7th inning guy, and he'll probably be back-to-back Cubs' MVP.
Russell is the setup man who was nails last year. I think another year in the pen will do him wonders, but you've got to be slightly concerned about getting bit by the variance bug. His HR/9 rate fell by a whole bomb per 9 last year (1.60 to 0.65), and it'll be interesting to see if that trend continues. Until Marmol is traded, he's probably sharing the set-up duties with Fujikawa.
Fujikawa will probably close after Marmol is traded. No one has any idea if he's any good. 
Marmol will close until he's traded.

The last spot is interesting. If the Cubs are serious about stretching Bowden out, he obviously will start the season in Iowa. If not, he'd be a serviceable dude in the 'pen. Without him (and I'm assuming Carpenter is starting in AAA also, along with Cabrera) the last spot is probably down to Cory Wade and Zach Putnam (guys like Zych and Chapman have an outside shot).  If it were up to me, I'd give Wade the spot. He's shown the ability to be an effective reliever at the MLB level before, so you might be able to spin him for a lottery ticket at the deadline. In the end, though, I'm betting the Cubs put Bowden in that spot. He's have to clear irrevocable waivers if he doesn't make the team, and even then he'd likely refuse the assignment. He can make a team somewhere. He gets a spot on the 40-man just as soon as Stewart inevitably goes on the 60-day.

List of Cubs hurt during Spring Training:
Brett Jackson
Albert Almora
Matt Garza
Ian Stewart
Scott Baker
Rafael Dolis
Starlin Castro
 

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  1. Aisle424

    My apologies to Myles if he covered this already in the post, but this is my response from the other thread before I knew Myles was posting new shit:

    Akabari wrote:

    Scott Baker —> Shut down
    Everyone —> Collective Meh

    Well, not exactly. A big key to this team not repeating its 100 loss death spiral was supposed to be the depth in pitching.

    We haven’t started the season yet and the rotation has gone from:

    Garza
    Samardzija
    Jackson
    Baker
    Wood/Feldman/Villanueva
    NOT TOO SHITTY!!

    to

    Samardzija
    Jackson
    Wood
    Feldman
    Villanueva (with Raley and Rusin now a heartbeat away from the rotation)

    PRETTY FUCKING SHITTY!!!

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  2. Author
    Myles

    Aisle424 wrote:

    My apologies to Myles if he covered this already in the post, but this is my response from the other thread before I knew Myles was posting new shit:
    Akabari wrote:
    Scott Baker —> Shut down
    Everyone —> Collective Meh

    Well, not exactly. A big key to this team not repeating its 100 loss death spiral was supposed to be the depth in pitching.
    We haven’t started the season yet and the rotation has gone from:
    Garza
    Samardzija
    Jackson
    Baker
    Wood/Feldman/Villanueva
    NOT TOO SHITTY!!
    to
    Samardzija
    Jackson
    Wood
    Feldman
    Villanueva (with Raley and Rusin now a heartbeat away from the rotation)
    PRETTY FUCKING SHITTY!!!

    No worries. That’s the main thrust of my post, except DREW CARPENTER is ahead of Raley/Rusin.

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  3. akabari

    When I say collective meh, I mean more in response to people in the radio and twitter who are already saying “Theo and Jed show their true colors! The Cubs are a joke, spending money on people who will never play!”
    He hasn’t even had an MRI yet. I just feel like its a little early to write off his season, which seems to be the consensus reaction.

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  4. Author
    Myles

    akabari wrote:

    When I say collective meh, I mean more in response to people in the radio and twitter who are already saying “Theo and Jed show their true colors! The Cubs are a joke, spending money on people who will never play!”
    He hasn’t even had an MRI yet. I just feel like its a little early to write off his season, which seems to be the consensus reaction.

    I think it is/was a calculated risk. Baker is a very good pitcher when healthy, so if he came back (or comes back) at anything like his old levels he’ll be a very good trade chip. If the Cubs signed 10 Scott Bakers, we’d reasonably expect 4-6 of them to pan out.

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  5. Aisle424

    Myles wrote:

    No worries. That’s the main thrust of my post, except DREW CARPENTER is ahead of Raley/Rusin.

    I just looked at who had pitched more than 10 innings this Spring who could be stretched out enough to be a starter. Drew is at 8.1, so sure. That doesn’t make anything any better.

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  6. Aisle424

    @ akabari:
    Yeah, but the dipshits are going to say that no matter what. Nobody like that is slapping Theo on the back for finding a guy like DeJesus that they all pretty much LURV. Nobody even remembers that Maholm was even on the team last year. When the team sucks everyone is going to look at the negative shit.

    The great thing is, this front office knows that and doesn’t get reactionary to it.

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  7. WaLi

    Aisle424 wrote:

    The great thing is, this front office knows that and doesn’t get reactionary to it

    Ricketts/Thoyer do seem to not really give a shit about what all the jabroni’s think, so that’s nice.

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  8. dmick89

    akabari wrote:

    When I say collective meh, I mean more in response to people in the radio and twitter who are already saying “Theo and Jed show their true colors! The Cubs are a joke, spending money on people who will never play!”

    I wasn’t all that happy with the amount of money they spent on Baker, but if he’s healthy he’s been pretty good. The Cubs knew what they were getting when they got him and it’s not like they spent $50 million over 3 years. The Cubs aren’t going to contend this year (more than likely) so big deal?

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  9. Aisle424

    @ dmick89:

    But it makes my initial 100 loss repeat prediction seem much more achievable. We keep hearing how this team has to show improvement for the sake of the fans not getting fed up and it becoming less and less likely that is going to happen. I’m not saying I buy the narrative, but it’s going to be going full steam if both Garza and Baker miss significant time while Feldman and Villanueva have their asses handed to them in 40% of the Cubs’ games.

    It’s going to get u-g-l-y.

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  10. dmick89

    @ Aisle424:
    I think a large part of the fan base will turn on them, but to their credit, Thoyer had created a large enough base to probably protect themselves.

    What could hurt that is if some of the prospects begin to get weeded out. Say Rizzo doesn’t live up to expectations and a couple of Soler, Baez and Almora struggle. Then it’s going to be real ugly.

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  11. Aisle424

    @ dmick89:

    That will be when it gets fugly. People are already talking about a lineup with Castro, Rizzo, Baez, Soler, and Almora in it like it could happen next year. People are morons.

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  12. Ryno

    Since I know you need your draft/49ers fix, here’s an idea I have: Convert Ark. Pine Bluff OT Terron Armstead to 5-technique. Discuss.

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  13. dmick89

    @ Aisle424:
    The faith in Thoyer reminds me a lot of the “In Dusty We Trusty” nonsense from nearly a decade ago. Early on in Dusty’s Cubs career he could do no wrong. The interesting thing, this time anyway, is that it seems to be a different segment of the fan base that believes in the “In Thoyer we Trust” nonsense.

    Don’t get me wrong. I’m very glad the Cubs have at the top who they have. I’m thrilled, but these guys are human and they’re going to make mistakes. Much of the success that Theo built in Boston was due to money and a large reason why they collapsed last year was also due to money. It’s not all that different from Hendry when you think about it.

    What is different is the methodology. Theo is going to be successful more often than Hendry, but the difference, as Theo has even said himself, isn’t going to be significant. Yet a large part of the fan base doesn’t understand that.

    They don’t recognize that prospects fail far more often than they succeed. You can look at any top 100 prospect list and you’re going to see a lot of failures. Take 2006 (picked because by 2013 we can safely evaluate that list).

    1. Delmon Young: 0.6 rWAR in his career
    2. Justin Upton: 13.1 rWAR
    3. Brandon Wood: -4.0 rWAR
    4. Jeremy Hermida: 1.8 rWAR
    5. Stephen Drew: 11.6 rWAR

    All of those guys were awesome prospects. Every single one of them could have been ranked first. Many people had Wood 1st. Of that group, only two have become good players. Upton is pretty close to being a superstar and through 2010 Drew appeared as though he was going to be around for a very long time. That may not be the case anymore with him.

    I’m fairly certain you can do this each year and you’ll see similar results.

    To be fair, 6-10 has had much better success (Liriano, Billinglsey, Verlander, MIlledge and Cain). That’s 3 outstanding pitchers and a 4th whose career was fucked up by injuries. The next 10 are Fielder, Kendrick, Gordon, Marte, Ryan Zimmerman, Ian Stewart, Connor Jackson, Saltalamacchia, Andy LaRoche.

    The lower you go the lower the success rate is going to be and even among the top 10 it’s far from perfect. Less than 50% of the top 20. Not to mention, a lot of those guys on that list reached the big leagues fairly soon after that ranking. Almora is several years away. Soler is probably 2-3 at best. The guys closer to the big leagues have already proven themselves to some extent and are less risky.

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  14. Author
    Myles

    The differences between Lillibridge and Cedeno are truthfully pretty minor.

    Cedeno’s biggest advantage is his ability to play a passable SS. That’s not a concern for the Cubs; Castro will play there 162 games a year. If Castro is injured, Lillibridge can handle 2B while Barney moves over (a Barney/Lillibridge infield isn’t terribly different than a Cedeno/Barney one.)

    Cedeno hit well last year (.326 wOBA), but it was his first year hitting over .300 in wOBA since his time with the Cubs in 2008. He’s probably a .240/.300/.360 dude.

    Lillibridge’s biggest advantage is basically the fact he’s been in camp with the Cubs (so, inertia). Lillibridge is like Cedeno but slightly worse in every fashion: he is projected to hit a little worse and is a little worse defensively (though he’s gotta be better on the basepaths, right?) Lillibridge also has the ability to play corner infield positions, which is of varying helpfulness depending on Soriano (and later in the season, Brett Jackson).

    In a vacuum, sure, I’d like Cedeno over Lillibridge. The difference is pretty miniscule, though, and inertia tells me that the Cubs are not going to make the change at this point.

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  15. WaLi

    Myles wrote:

    In a vacuum, sure, I’d like Cedeno over Lillibridge. The difference is pretty miniscule, though, and inertia tells me that the Cubs are not going to make the change at this point.

    Yeah I can agree with that. For the amount of playing time either would have on the team, how bad the team will be anyways, and the fact that Cedeno costs more (I think) I don’t see the Cubs picking him up.

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  16. WaLi

    Brett @ BN reporting that alderman Tunney said he wouldn’t mind tearing down the scoreboard for a jumbotron.

    http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/03/20/obsessive-wrigley-renovation-watch-tom-tunney-offers-to-support-tearing-down-the-old-scoreboard/

    I don’t have as strong as a reactiong against tearing it down, but mainly because I want the Cubs to generate as much money as possible. I thought the scoreboard was part of the landmark status though so I didn’t htink they could tear it down.

    I think a jumbotron that imitates the traditional scoreboard would look good and could generate additional money would be in the Cubs best interest though (and look better than billboards all over)

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  17. Edwin

    @ dmick89:

    I think a problem is that a lot of fans focus on the draft as the only way to make the Cubs a better team. I think they underestimate the importance of trades and FA signings.

    I’m less concerend with who the Cubs draft, and whether or not those players turn into MLB regulars, or even stars. I’m more concerned with how Theo/Jed (Is it Jed or Jeb?) use the trade market and FA market to improve the team over the long term.

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  18. Suburban kid

    Edwin wrote:

    I’m curious, is it possible that fans overrate the value of “Home-grown” players?

    Does the Pope shit in the woods?

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  19. Berselius

    @ WaLi:

    IIRC that Tunney plan only wants the Cubs to move the scoreboard, probably to where the Toyota sign is now since it blocks nothing, and putting a Tyrano-Vision in the current scoreboard spot. I don’t think that would technically violate the landmark status. And we know that technically correct is the best kind of correct.

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  20. Berselius

    Edwin wrote:

    I’m curious, is it possible that fans overrate the value of “Home-grown” players?

    Fans overrate their future performance but underrate the value they provide teams in terms of cost control. Everyone points to the Yankees as buying championships, but Jeter, Soriano, Rivera, Cano, Williams, O’Neill, Pettite, Posada, and a bunch of other people that I’m forgetting were all from their system and a big reason why they could afford their high profile FAs to begin with.

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  21. dmick89

    Berselius wrote:

    Edwin wrote:
    I’m curious, is it possible that fans overrate the value of “Home-grown” players?

    Fans overrate their future performance but underrate the value they provide teams in terms of cost control. Everyone points to the Yankees as buying championships, but Jeter, Soriano, Rivera, Cano, Williams, O’Neill, Pettite, Posada, and a bunch of other people that I’m forgetting were all from their system and a big reason why they could afford their high profile FAs to begin with.

    Well put. That’s one thing people forget when they complain about the Yankees. Yeah, they spent a shitload of money, but they developed a crapload of talent. Since they started to spend a bunch on free agents they haven’t been so lucky, but they did win a championship.

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  22. GW

    dmick89 wrote:

    Much of the success that Theo built in Boston was due to money and a large reason why they collapsed last year was also due to money

    It also doesn’t hurt that they picked up a fat 27 year-old career part time player for nothing who then immediately turned into a borderline hall of famer.

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  23. Mucker

    Ryno, do you feel the 49ers would covet Tavon Austin if he was still there at 20? I want the Bears to trade down and get that 3rd back and maybe even another higher pick. My hopes are that Austin lands to the Bears at 20 and a team offers a nice package to trade up and snag him. Can you call Jim and ask him what he thinks?

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  24. dmick89

    @ GW:
    Good point. It does go without saying that Theo did much more than get lucky in Boston and I hope people don’t think that’s what I’m saying. But he got lucky and was good. Like every other GM, he also made some very poor decisions.

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  25. Aisle424

    @ dmick89:

    What did he say, something like he’s doing well if he makes 55% good decisions? That doesn’t make for a quick turnaround when you can’t game the system like he used to.

    What I’m hopeful for is they are one of the first teams to figure out how to game the current CBA and gain the advantage that way again. They are smart enough to do that. That’s where my hope lies. otherwise we’re still dealing with basically a coin flip on making decisions.

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  26. Suburban kid

    I was married to a cockroach once. We used to argue all the time. Then, one day, I put my foot down.

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  27. Aisle424

    I was walking my dog the other day and he stopped to lick his balls. As he did so, a guy walking by commented, “Man, I wish I could do that.” So I told him, “You probably can, but you might have to pet him a little first.”

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  28. dmick89

    @ Aisle424:
    Yeah, he said a good GM gets it right 55% of the time. I think you just have to hope that the 55% they get right have more impact than the 45% they get wrong. As you know, not all decisions will have the same impact. If you get a $100 million contract wrong, it’s going to hurt you (as both the Cubs and Red Sox learned), but a $10 million contract probably won’t. At least not long-term.

    So far they’re playing it safe, which is probably wise, despite the fact that it irritates me that a large market team like the Cubs won’t spend a few more bucks to be competitive. If the safe way gets this team near contention then we’ll start to see decisions that could have a huge impact. Both positively and negatively.

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  29. Ryno

    @ Mucker:

    Factoring need and the small sample of the GM’s and coaches’ values, I think SF would move up to 20 for the following players:

    Definitely: Lotulelei, Sharrif Floyd, Ansah, Sheldon Richardson, Jarvis Jones
    Maybe: Cooper, Dion Jordan, Mingo, Datone Jones, Tank Carradine
    Longshot: Joeckel, Fisher, Lane Johnson (if they feel OT is enough of a need to package picks)

    I really like Austin for SF, but I think you can get a poor man’s version of him in several Day 2 players.

    Unfortunately for CHI there are only a handful of truly elite players in this draft. The value is all on Day 2 and into the fourth round. On my big board (which is absolutely worthless), there are 19 first rounders, 35 second rounders and about 50 third rounders.

    The good news for CHI, though, is that a couple of them have medical issues that might push them down. If Lotulelei’s or Jarvis Jones’ conditions drop them to 20, 30 teams would be all over that pick.

    Austin, btw, is NOT another Percy Harvin, imo. He’s closer to Dexter McCluster than Harvin.

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  30. Aisle424

    A guy is having an affair with a married woman and while they are in the middle of having sex, her husband comes home unexpectedly. The guy has no time to do anything but grab his clothes and hide in the closet.

    As he sits in the dark waiting for the husband to leave again, he hears a voice, “It’s awfully dark in here.”

    “Who’s there?”

    “That’s my mommy out there and I’m getting scared of the dark in here.”

    “It’s OK kid, let’s just be real quiet and it will be OK.”

    “I think I’m going to scream.”

    “Please don’t.”

    “I think I’m going to scream.”

    “What if I gave you $20?”

    “I think I’m going to scream.”

    “Come on, kid. I’ll give you $50.”

    “I think I’m going to scream.”

    “I’ll give you $100, it’s all I have.”

    “OK.”

    So the man gives the kid $100 and they sit for a few more minutes while the wife clears her husband away and the guy can get the hell out of there.

    Later that week, the mother and her son are out shopping and he asks if he can get the newest Wii game.

    “Oh, that costs a little too much money, but maybe when your birthday comes.”

    “Well, can I buy it? I have a $100,” and the kid shows his mother the money.

    “Where did you get that?”, the mother demanded, but the kid wouldn’t answer. After a lot of questioning and silence from the kid, the mother hauled him off to the local church and found their priest.

    “My son has $100 and he won’t tell me where he got it from, can you help?”

    The priest said he would see what he could do and took the kid to the confessional where they could talk privately. As the priest closed the door, the kid said, “It’s awfully dark in here,” and the priest replied, “Let’s not start that again!”

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  31. dmick89

    @ GW:
    Also, Youkilis. He was injured a lot in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006. He made his mlb debut at 25 and didn’t get a full season until he was 27. Won’t find many players like that who have successful careers.

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  32. Aisle424

    I was feeling so depressed about all the Cubs injuries, I decided to commit suicide by jumping off the 5th story of my building. I jumped off the ledge and accidentally did a double somersault with a half twist and landed safely on my feet.

    A cat and a kitten were sitting there on the sidewalk and the cat said to the kitten, “See? That’s how you do that.”

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  33. dmick89

    @ Berselius:
    It’s amazing mlb still exists. They do more to alienate their fans than all the other sports combined. Day after day mlb’s own executives are making a story out of something that they’d be significantly better off ignoring. Take a page from the nfl for fuck sake. You don’t see the nfl going to extremes to tarnish the sport.

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  34. dmick89

    Berselius wrote:

    They’re too busy being ignoring brain trauma while pushing for an 18 game season.

    That’s what I’m saying. You don’t see them highlighting that shit day in and day out. They don’t talk about the problems in the sport because it is of no benefit. It will only hurt it. Baseball has been doing this shit for a decade now.

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  35. dmick89

    @ WaLi:
    Yeah, they basically ignore or lie their way out of controversy. On the other hand, MLB tries to find controversy.

    Don’t get me wrong. MLB is a more respectable business in many ways, especially at the MLB level. I’ve just never seen a business throw themselves under the bus as frequently as MLB does.

    Handling the steroid/PED issue was so simple an idiot could have figured it out. Acknowledge the problem. MLB did this even though they were late to the party. A lot of people can be held responsible for that, including the fans.

    Create a system that makes it harder to get away with breaking the rules. MLB did this and they keep strengthening it. Good for them since this is a priority to them.

    When reports leak about steroids and other PEDs, simply say that you’ve instituted the best testing policy possible and that, no matter what, the game will never be 100% free of people using PEDs. That’s an impossibility and one MLB has yet to acknowledge.

    What you don’t do is what MLB has done, which is keep this issue in the fucking news day in and fucking day out. The fans will follow the lead and that lead should simply be this: “We are doing and have done everything we can to ensure the game is clean and we’ll continue to do so.” The fucking end!

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  36. WaLi

    dmick89 wrote:

    What you don’t do is what MLB has done, which is keep this issue in the fucking news day in and fucking day out. The fans will follow the lead and that lead should simply be this: “We are doing and have done everything we can to ensure the game is clean and we’ll continue to do so.” The fucking end!

    Right… who even still cared about this Ryan Braun thing? It’s the start of a new season. Also it wasn’t really MLB’s fault that he got off, right? It was the testing clinic’s fault, and I want to think that most people gave MLB the pass on it (those that cared anyways).

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  37. WaLi

    Also mb, you might find this interesting. In the medical field there is apparently something like a draft. My friend’s wife was applying to different hospitals (I forget if for her residency or what). Basically they ask her for an interview if they like her and she goes and interviews them. At the end of this interview period, she ranks the hospitals she wants to go to, and they rank the people they interviewed. This all goes to a third party who looks at all the rankings and pairs up the doctors and hospitals. They then get told they are matched and are binded by some contract to go to that hospital, even if it wasn’t their top choice. What throws a wrench in this is that during the interview process a hospital can choose to not go through the draft for that candidate and flat out offer a contract, but if you deny that you are out of the draft for that hospital and if you accept you are out of the draft for the rest of them.

    I’m probably missing something about the whole process since I heard it third hand, but it seemed really strange to me.

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  38. bubblesdachimp

    Bubbles was out of town last weekend so was not able to see Baez’s homeruns till today.

    Good fucking lord kid can swing the bat. Reminds me of Rickie Weeks swing but faster.

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