Cubs 6, Reds 5

In Postgame by berselius76 Comments

OSS: An Inverted M is an Inverted M.

Three up:

  1. Who else but Javy Baez was involved in the most consequential play of the game (.411 WPA). Baez singled up the middle with runners on the corners in the seventh inning to tie the game at four…then Heyward flashed a bit of Javy on the basepaths and scored from first following a lazy throw in from Hamilton, and Baez moved up all the way to third base. Baez also doubled in the first inning, and was voted in to the ASG as a starter following the game.
  2. Bote McBoteface had the other big Cubs play of the game, a walkoff walk in extra innings. Thanks, Reds bullpen! The Cubs blew a chance to take the lead in the bottom of the ninth, but luckily they/Votto/Stephens came through in the 10th.
  3. Lester continues to do later career Lester things, only striking out two but pitching fairly effectively into the seventh inning. He did give up four runs, but I’m somewhat heartened by the fact that he got through the first three innings in something like 19 pitches.

Three down:

  1. Javy was also involved in the Cubs most negative WPA play of the day, a fielders choice groundout with the bases juiced in the ninth inning.
  2. Speaking of baserunners taking advantage of lackadaisical OF defense, Billy Hamilton scored from first on a stolen base thanks to a throwing error by Contreras and a bobble/slow pickup/bad throw from Almora.
  3. Hamilton must have something like a 2.000 OPS against Lester, which I would find hilarious if I did not root for the Cubs.

Next up: The Cubs go on a six game west coast road trip to close out the first ‘half’ of the season. Weird stuff always seems to happen on long west coast road trips, so I’m a little apprehensive, but that can be both good and bad (see: Arrieta no-hitter). Kyle Hendricks takes on Andrew Suarez in SF at 9:15 PM CT on Monday to kick it off.

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  1. Rice Cube

    I am glad the Cubs get to hit first…and while the matchups may not be ideal, at least they don’t have to deal with Bumgarner.

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  2. SK

    It felt very much like Heyward was picking up Almora for his fuckup that allowed Hamilton to score, by doing the exact same shit to Hamilton.

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  3. SK

    I think this west coast trip includes a day off, which will help these guys acclimate, and with the AS break after, they won’t be feeling rushed to get back home for another game.

    When they recently went west, it was right after a depressing losing streak. This will be different.

    I predict, to borrow words from JD, a loosey-goosey team this week.

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  6. Perkins

    berselius,

    I wonder when the Cardinals will let him go. It’s going to be even better seeing the Cardinals pay him to play for another team, though what he and his wife have dealt with from Cards fans is pretty awful.

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  8. Perkins

    I don’t know. I don’t give a shit. That’s not my problem. Personally, I’m glad the Cardinals are languishing in the sewer and are clumsily trying to Cardinals Way their way out of this mess, because they’re a shitty team run by shitty people and cheered on by shitty fans. Fuck them. I hope Dexter Fowler doesn’t even bother to wear shoes to the dugout anymore.

    https://deadspin.com/i-can-t-get-enough-of-the-shitass-cardinals-feuding-wit-1827443647

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  9. Rizzo the Rat

    Myles Handley,

    Honestly, I’m more exasperated when a player with a strong track record and good projection has a down year or two and people are shocked when the player bounces back.

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  10. Rizzo the Rat

    Last year, I kept hearing how Heyward, Zobrist, Rondon, etc. were all washed up. This year, they’re putting up good numbers, as they were projected to and everyone is talking about how they are “fixed.”

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  11. dmick89

    Rizzo the Rat,

    You have a good point, especially with Zobrist and Rondon, but not so much with Heyward. He hasn’t bounced back. He’s bounced above being a shitty ballplayer, which is nice since the Cubs are paying him so much. Hopefully Chatwood can bounce above being whatever excuse he currently is.

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  12. Rizzo the Rat

    dmick89,

    Heyward isn’t producing as he did before he became a Cub (nor should we expect him to), but he is producing about what his Steamer projection is. And a lot of people are acting as if this is a huge surprise.

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  13. Perkins

    IIRC, the prevailing thought going into that contract was that his floor was likely to be around 2-3 WAR based on his defensive value, so it wouldn’t be too much of an overpay. I’d be thrilled if he could clear 3 WAR. Even more so if he could do it more than once.

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  14. dmick89

    Rizzo the Rat,

    I can’t speak for anyone else, but I’m not overly surprised he’s reaching his current projection. It’s just his current projection is significantly lower than what we’d have expected it to be in year three of the deal. That sucks.

    I’m not sure I ever thought Zobrist was done. I may have said as much last year, but it became clear later on a lot of his performance was injury related. The same can probably be said for Rondon, but I am surprised at how good he’s been. I thought he’d probably be no better than an average reliever.

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  15. dmick89

    Perkins: I’d be thrilled if he could clear 3 WAR. Even more so if he could do it more than once.

    It’s not likely he does that. I’m guessing 2.5 is about where he ends up. I’ll take it. I just wish he didn’t go to shit right after the Cubs signed him.

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  16. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    CF Almora
    SS Russell
    2B Baez
    1B Rizzo
    C Contreras
    RF Zobrist
    3B Bote
    LF Happ
    P Hendricks

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  25. Rizzo the Rat

    Kyle has been really good for a change. Too bad his defense and offense are letting him down.

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  28. Rizzo the Rat

    I’d be a terrible manager. I wouldn’t be able to resist yelling at the players when they have terrible days.

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  32. Rizzo the Rat

    Remember when Crawford threw the ball away in an attempt to double up Heyward in the NLDS? That was great.

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  44. Rizzo the Rat

    Wait, the starting pitcher was changed to Holland? The lineup makes more sense now (still… come back soon, Kris).

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  45. andcounting

    I’m somewhat surprised Rizzo was benched after losing the game for the team by sucking at every phase. I’d have thought he’d get a shot at redemption instead of no dinner, but whatever.

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  46. Author
    berselius

    andcounting:
    I’m somewhat surprised Rizzo was benched after losing the game for the team by sucking at every phase. I’d have thought he’d get a shot at redemption instead of no dinner, but whatever.

    I missed most of yesterday’s game – did he punch a baby in the third inning or something?

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  50. dmick89

    Since Rizzo has sucked and he’s getting days off, why the fuck doesn’t Chatwood get the next start off? I think a break for him of somewhere between one start and the next three years would be best.

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  72. Berselius full of BBQ

    No Morrow again – maybe the Cubs should tell him to just keep his pants on at all times.

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