Cubs 4, Brewers 3 (4/26/16)

In Commentary And Analysis by berselius80 Comments

OSS: Maddon pulls the pitcher at the right time and the Cubs bats come through on the frozen tundra of Wrigley Field.

Three up

  1. Addison Muscle had the biggest hit of the day, a two run triple into the gap that gave the Cubs the lead in the sixth inning. The Cubs made pretty good contact against Nelson, but the wind howling in knocked down several balls that would be home runs a month from now. Russell's shot was lower angled and managed to not be right at someone.
  2. Maddon managed to break his streak of letting pitchers bat for themselves in key situations, pulling Hendricks in the bottom of the fifth when the Cubs had runners on second and third with one out in a one-run game. Hendricks looked pretty non-plussed about it, but given the way the wind was suppressing offense today it was completely the right move. The Cubs tied it with a sac fly by Dex, and Adam Warren pitched multiple solid innings of relief. This seemed much more like the way they drew it up going into the season.
  3. Baez pulled of his own "It's magic" slide on a stolen base in the seventh, managing to dodge around the tag on a ball that beat him handily and performing "some Cirque du Soleil" shit, per the wife, to stay on the bag. 

Three down

  1. Pedro Strop was all over the place in his outing, completely unable to locate his fastball early on. He issued two walks and a wild pitch betore Cub-killer Lloyd Braun sloughed off his Ed Hardy parka and doubled them in to bring the Brewers within one. Strop managed to get the following Brewers AAA guy to strike out, but the damage was done. Strop's going to be wild some days, and as the great Dusty Baker once said, it is what it is. 
  2. After heating up in the previous series, a big oh-fer for Heyward. He had the Cubs biggest negative play of the day, grounding out to end the fifth inning rally that bumped Hendricks but tied the game.
  3. The Brewers pen is pretty terrible (bottom five ERA in all of baseball), but watching Nelson getting hit harder and harder by the Cubs bats in the fifth and sixth inning made Maddon's decision to pull Hendricks early look even better. Nelson batted for himself in the sixth after issuing two walks and giving up the lead in the previous frame, and ended up being yanked in the bottom of the inning. If they can't trust their pen on a night like this one, with the wind howling in, I'm really looking forward to summer.

Next up: Arrieta v Jungmann, 7:10 PM CT

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Comments

  1. Ryno

    berselius:
    Ryno,
    Yeah,, but don’t really see them taking an ILB in the first round. They definitely need to get Matthews back outside though.

    USC’s Su’a Cravens is a guy to watch. Everyone says he’s too small to be a LB and he might fall to the 2nd round, but he plays much bigger and he’s a 1st rounder to me.

    This is a deep class at interior DL. You can probably get 1st-round value in the second. Depending on what GB wants, I could see a guy like Chris Jones or A’Shawn Robinson making sense there.

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  2. umbra

    I don’t get to use MLB.TV when the Cubs play the Brewers so now I’m going to miss Arrieta’s perfect 27K game 🙁

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  3. umbra

    Also, I still can’t register my nickname, so until further notice be aware that there could be posters who look like me but just post dumb shit. If you see any dumb shit, that’s not me, it’s an impostor.

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  4. dmick89

    umbra,

    email me at dmick89 (at) gmail.com. I’ll set it up for you. It’s far from ideal, but until there’s a better solution, it’s all I got. FWIW, a better solution is likely to come in the next few weeks. I’ve been searching out hosts that deal with WordPress exclusively and include security measures on their end rather than us trying to stop them, which results in limiting certain things to protect ourselves.

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  5. myles

    Russell is hitting .232/.342/.375 with very good (not superb IMO) defense at SS this year. His LD% is at 23.5. SS league-average wOBA is .301, Russell is .315. He’s been pretty unlucky at the plate so far and is better than the average SS.

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  6. dmick89

    I like his increased plate discipline this season. It’s a small sample, but it seems improved enough so far that I’m feeling more confident it’s actually real. Also, fewer strikeouts, which is always a good thing.

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  7. Author
    berselius

    umbra,

    Cord cutter? They were practically giving away FSWI when I lived out there. It’s much more of a pain in the ass for me to get the ‘local’ RSNs out here.

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  8. JonKneeV

    Almost all of the articles about the stupid “PEDs & Arrieta” are pro-Arrieta. But damn if there aren’t so many idiots out there with useless comments like “I’m a casual fan and of course Arrieta is on steroids. Pitchers don’t get better when they’re 30”.

    Lesson learned – don’t read comment sections.

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  9. dmick89

    What I learned from this whole Arrieta crap is that there is almost no way he’s going to be a Cub after next season. That kind of sucks, but it’s entirely understandable. I wouldn’t sign a pitcher his age for that many years either. Arrieta wants a long contract with a shitload of money. I don’t blame him one bit. I’d do the same thing, but the Cubs probably won’t give out that kind of contract to him.

    As for the steroids talk? Couldn’t care less.

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  10. dmick89

    Since it’s unlikely Arrieta and the Cubs reach a long-term deal, it has to be asked, should the Cubs consider trading him at some point next season? Obviously it depends on a lot of other things, but if the Cubs can add a top of the rotation pitcher either through a trade or free agency, it has to be on the table next year.

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  11. cerulean

    JonKneeV:
    Pitchers don’t get better when they’re 30 inches.

    I don’t know what that means, but I am almost certain it’s not a good thing for pitchers.

    (/parsingError)

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  12. cerulean

    dmick89,

    Why would you say it’s unlikely? Arrieta clearly likes it here. His conditioning is good. He has been the best pitcher in baseball. His strengths are such that he can remain at an elite level for the next five years. There’s money in them there coffers. A ballpark $200M extension should get the job done this offseason despite him being a Boras client.

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  13. Myles

    dmick89:
    Since it’s unlikely Arrieta and the Cubs reach a long-term deal, it has to be asked, should the Cubs consider trading him at some point next season? Obviously it depends on a lot of other things, but if the Cubs can add a top of the rotation pitcher either through a trade or free agency, it has to be on the table next year.

    I can only imagine the haul for a 3month arrieta rental.

    Has to be pretty huge.

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  14. dmick89

    cerulean,

    Nothing in this article that talks about his next contract sounds like it’s good for the Cubs: http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/columnist/bob-nightengale/2016/04/26/mlb-jake-arrieta-contract-steroids-cubs/83551730/

    Cubs only wanted to go 3 or 4, he wants 6 or 7 and huge money. I can see why both sides are where they are. Arrieta won’t be any cheaper after this season (probably more expensive). He’s not young. The Cubs front office is pretty smart and there’s probably no way to look at a huge 6-7 year contract for a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 as a good contract. I don’t see the Cubs shifting course for Arrieta.

    Yeah, it sounds like he wants to stay in Chicago, but he wants big, big money to do it.

    I don’t see it happening.

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  15. cerulean

    The only scenario I see where Jake walks is if the Cubs win the World Series this year and the FO decides the job has been done. This team give Arrieta the best chance to win. Arrieta gives this team the best chance to win. As long as that mutual benefit holds, I don’t see a parting.

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  16. cerulean

    dmick89: there’s probably no way to look at a huge 6-7 year contract for a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 as a good contract.

    Any large contract is probably a bad contract, but great teams in big markets must take those chances. Pitchers can and do pitch well into their 30s. Injury is the wildcard, and while age makes recovery less likely, I don’t believe that the risks of injury are that much different for well-conditioned athletes, at least until the latter 30s, and by then, Arrieta has probably given the team a solid handful of goes to get to the World Series.

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  17. uncle dave

    Ed Hardy parka

    (dying laughing)

    Dude probably tucks an Affliction shirt into a pair of khakis when he goes out for a nice dinner.

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  18. uncle dave

    dmick89: Exactly. If the two sides remain far apart, that possibility has to be explored.

    Explored, sure, but do you want to trade Arrieta to another playoff contender when you have a legit shot at the title yourself? That might be a short-sided look at things, but to a certain extent you have to play for now when you have a window.

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  19. Rice Cube

    It may depend also on how compensation works under the new CBA post-2016, but I’m kind of morbidly curious as to how much of the internet burns down if the Cubs do trade Jake in July 2017.

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  20. Mucker

    Anybody else find Heyward’s lack of power disturbing? I know it’s still early but he cannot seem to drive the ball or get any lift on the ball. He gets into pretty good hitter counts often so you would think he could do a little more damage in those counts. He’s been unlucky but it just seems he’s not making as strong as contact as he should be.

    I don’t know maybe I’m just an asshole.

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  21. dmick89

    cerulean,

    I’m not saying that it can’t be argued that the Cubs should sign Arrieta. I’ll probably end up trying to make that same argument in 6 or 7 months, but the opposite argument can just as easily be made (maybe even more easily).

    I haven’t looked at possible free agent classes coming up, but isn’t Harper scheduled to be a free agent around the same time? The following year, I think. I’d rather the Cubs save a boatload of money to go after him if he’s still a free agent. The same argument that we’d prefer Heyward over Price is likely to present itself when it comes to possibly re-signing Jake Arrieta.

    One thing is very clear, the Cubs are not going to be getting a hometown discount with Arrieta. They’re either going to pay him free agent value, which would actually be pretty stupid of them to do at this point considering he’s got two arbitration years left. They’re going to have to win a bidding war and I’m fine with the Cubs entering that contest as long as they have a cap on what they’re willing to spend. What is that? I don’t think we’re going to know until the end of next season, but his age is most certainly going to be a factor in that. Good conditioning or not, he’s going to be getting old during that contract and well conditioned athletes break down in older age all the time.

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  22. dmick89

    uncle dave: Explored, sure, but do you want to trade Arrieta to another playoff contender when you have a legit shot at the title yourself? That might be a short-sided look at things, but to a certain extent you have to play for now when you have a window.

    Right, there’s a lot of things to consider and it probably wouldn’t make sense for a contender to deal someone like Arrieta, but I think you have to explore it.

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  23. Mucker

    Arrieta has earned a huge payday. I’m torn on whether the Cubs should sign a 30 year old pitcher to 7 years at $30 mil a season. I think for the first 3 or 4 years, it would be worth it but those last couple of years would be a struggle. I’d like to see him in a Cubs uniform for the rest of his career, but I would understand if he isn’t.

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  24. myles

    Mucker:
    Anybody else find Heyward’s lack of power disturbing?I know it’s still early but he cannot seem to drive the ball or get any lift on the ball.He gets into pretty good hitter counts often so you would think he could do a little more damage in those counts.He’s been unlucky but it just seems he’s not making as strong as contact as he should be.

    I don’t know maybe I’m just an asshole.

    Why not both?

    http://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/aoz8kgx8pzknypz7z38n.jpg

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  25. umbra

    dmick89:
    umbra,

    It’s far from ideal, but until there’s a better solution, it’s all I got.

    That’s what I told my Mom after deciding to live in a van down by the river. Mail Sent.

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  26. cerulean

    dmick89,

    On one side, you have Bryce Harper. On the other side you have Jake Arrieta and Jason Heyward. Which costs more? Which would you rather have?

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  27. dmick89

    cerulean:
    dmick89,

    On one side, you have Bryce Harper. On the other side you have Jake Arrieta and Jason Heyward. Which costs more? Which would you rather have?

    Arrieta and Heyward vs. Harper and Heyward?

    A lot can happen between now and when each of them become free agents (one year apart), but come on, is this really even debatable at this point? If it’s wait one year and sign Harper to what would obviously be a ridiculously massive contract or sign Arrieta to what would be a massive contract for a pitcher his age, what would you do?

    These what ifs don’t really matter though. My point was that if contract negotiations aren’t going smoothly (they don’t appear to be), the Cubs ought to explore trading Arrieta at the deadline next year. It’s highly unlikely they would and it’s unlikely it would even be a smart move for a contender to deal someone of that caliber midseason, but they’d be foolish to not look into it. If Arrieta has a change of heart and signs for a team-friendly deal then that’s fantastic. If Arrieta takes this to free agency, he’s as good as gone. A lot of this stuff right now is posturing, but with Boras as his agent and Arrieta seemingly intent on getting the maximum amount of money (as he should be), this doesn’t look to end with him in a Cubs uniform in my opinion.

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  28. Author
    berselius

    To-day’s base ball squadron

    Fowler
    Heyward
    Bryant
    Rizzo (LF)
    Zobrist
    LaStella (3b)
    Russell
    Ross
    Arrieta

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  29. Smokestack Lightning

    Rice Cube:
    berselius,

    The BLS take is pretty good, too.

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/jake-arrieta-destroys-espn-s-stephen-a–smith-for-doubting-stats-183323307.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    Eh, SAS knows what the typical meathead sports fan wants and how to get paid giving to ’em. If it weren’t him, it’d be someone else. Just like Trump. I don’t get pissed at Trump. I do get pissed at the millions of fuckwits that lap his shit up and disgrace themselves by voting for him.

    But if no one was buying, the product wouldn’t be sold.

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  30. Author
    berselius

    dmick89,

    My completely untrained eye says the worst of it will have passed long before game time. It could go either way, you never know.

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  31. Author
    berselius

    dmick89,

    Keep him through the end of the contract and get the QO pick. I don’t really see the point of flipping him when we reasonably expect next year’s team to be as great as this one.

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  32. Author
    berselius

    dmick89:
    Smokestack Lightning,

    I’m a little pissed at Trump and the people voting for him, but I’m mostly pissed because we have a shitty two-party system that is going to have two people who are so unlikable at the top of each party.

    Don’t worry, Ted Cruz is going to consolidate everyone to stop Trump now that he’s declared Fiorina his running mate! (dying laughing).

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  33. dmick89

    berselius,

    I wonder how the qualifying offers are going to be with the next CBA. It was reported awhile ago that a lot of the players want to do away with it or completely rewrite how it’s done. That should be interesting to watch.

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  34. dmick89

    berselius,

    What’s funny is that Ted Cruz actually thought he would become the nominee on a 2nd ballot or later. There was probably as much chance of that happening as there would be they nominate Trump.

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  35. Author
    berselius

    dmick89,

    I don’t really expect much to happen – at the end of the day this is like 2-3 guys a year who really get burned by it and I don’t know if that’s enough to move the increasingly meh MLBPA. I think it will be more interesting to see how many players accept next year. Maybe if there are any changes it might be on the ownership side when they’re stuck paying guys like Rasmus and Kennedy superstar money.

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  36. Author
    berselius

    dmick89,

    The way he’s been stacking the delegates, it’s not unreasonable for him to be the favorite on the second ballot. I’m rooting for it to go to 37 ballots though (dying laughing).

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  37. Author
    berselius

    It didn’t really feel like baseball season had started until we had our first instance of mass hand-wringing about rain 4-6 hours before first pitch

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  38. dmick89

    berselius,

    I thought Tony Clark made a persuasive argument recently about this issue.

    “I think it’s disappointing when there are as many talented players still without a home,” he said. “I don’t think it’s in anyone’s best interest to be in a world where very talented players are at home for whatever reason they are there. It will likely be a part of the conversation in bargaining.”

    I think it will be a bigger issue than you’re thinking. I think pretty much any player who is eligible for free agency in a year or two who could possibly be at risk is going to take it seriously. Plus, it only takes a couple high ranking players to take this issue up and I’m guessing they do.

    Think about how fucked up the qualifying offer system was less than 10 years ago. Type A, B and C free agents. That was completely done away with. It came as a surprise to a lot of people, but probably shouldn’t have. I think this is one issue they’re on top of.

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  39. Suburban kid

    berselius:
    To-day’s base ball squadron

    Fowler
    Heyward
    Bryant
    Rizzo (LF)
    Zobrist
    LaStella (3b)
    Russell
    Ross
    Arrieta

    It was only a matter of time until Bryant pipped Rizzo out of the infield.

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  40. Author
    berselius

    dmick89,

    I’m pretty underwhelmed by Tony Clark so far. I’d feel much more comfortable if an actual labor lawyer was heading things up for the players.

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  41. dmick89

    berselius,

    I would too. The MLBPA is pretty weak right now. My guess is that teams will still get compensation, but they won’t lose their 1st round draft pick. That’s the real issue here and it’s pretty easy to fix. I’m glad Dexter Fowler was around so long. I’m not sure I’d be too thrilled with seeing Matt Szczur playing as frequently as he would be without Fowler so I’m glad it worked out in the Cubs favor. That said, if all teams had to do was surrender a 2nd round pick, he’d have gone off the board pretty early and gotten paid well.

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  42. dmick89

    Teams who lose a player in free agency get the 2nd round pick of the team who signed him and a compensatory pick after the 1st round.

    That’s what I think happens anyway. Prove me wrong.

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  43. cerulean

    EnricoPallazzo: the thing i find most odd about that is that if they are predicting the cubs to win 102 games and the next best team to only win 93, how are the cubs playoff chances only at 91%

    2% chance of Dexter Fowler destroying all the outfielders.
    2% chance of Bryzzo actually morphing into a single player.
    5% chance of a chariot decending from the sky to take Jake to heaven because this life is no longer challenging enough.

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  44. cerulean

    If we can’t change the two-party system, can we at least rename them to something more accurate?

    My vote:
    The Regressive Party—the party by and for old, rich white guys and wannabe old, rich white guys. They favor the rich because Jesus said the poor will always be with us.
    The Digressive Party—the party that is really focused on being focused on what to focus—squirrel! They apply just the right amount of incompetence to distract from gathering nuts.

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