Cubs’ 2014 trades in retrospect

In Uncategorized by myles

The Cubs were fairly active at the trading deadline this year. How did they do?

All numbers are post-trade.

July 5

Cubs trade

Jeff Samardzija (5-5, 2.92 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 16 GS)
Jason Hammel (2-6, 4.52 ERA, 5.44 FIP, 11 GS)

for

Addison Russell (.295/.333/.539, .390 wOBA, 204 PA) (AA)
Billy McKinney (.301/.390/.432, .379 wOBA, 210 PA) (A+)
Dan Straily (3-5, 4.09 ERA, 4.57 FIP, 10 GS) (AAA)

Russell is knocking on the door of the #1 prospect in baseball (as is his 2015 Opening Day teammate Kris Bryant). Billy McKinney will be at the bottom of Top 100 lists next season, and is firmly in the top 5 of Cubs prospects nowadays. Dan Straily is probably flotsam, but he’ll get one more year to put it together. Billy Beane received arguably the Athletics’ best pitcher (since they acquired him), but then went out and got another player even better (Jon Lester) than him. I think this was a classic win-win for these teams, even if it doesn’t end up working for the Athletics down the line.

July 28

Cubs trade:

Darwin Barney (.261/.485/.435, .424 wOBA, 33 PA)

for

Jonathan Martinez (4-0, 2.31 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 5 GS, 23.1 IP) (A)

Barney should actually make the Dodgers’ postseason roster as a defensive replacement (though they also have Turner who has a big stick for some reason this year). Barney makes a lot of sense as a backup MINF, and he can be that cheaply for the Dodgers next year. Martinez is a deep-cut prospect much in the vein of Erick Leal or Jesus Castillo (the return from Tony Campana), though he’s fooled ’em at a higher level than either of those guys.

July 30

Cubs trade

PTBNL (presumed to be Marco Hernandez)

for

Felix Doubront (2-1, 3.98 ERA, 4.65 FIP, 20.1 IP, 4 GS)

Doubront wants to start, and the chance he’ll get is completely dependent on the number of starters the Cubs go out and get this offseason. He’s probably one of the front-runners to get the #5 job next year, but he’s always better in your mind than on paper. Marco Hernandez is an all-glove guy that just won’t find room on a 40-man here.

July 31

Cubs trade

James Russell (2.84 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 19 IP, 20 G)
Emilio Bonifacio (.226/.293/.274, .260 wOBA, 116 PA)

for

Victor Caratini (.264/.310/.377, .314 wOBA, 58 PA) (A)

Russell has been stout for the Braves, but Bonifacio essentially arrived in a bodybag. He actively hurt them in the middle of their playoff hunt. Caratini is a tweener C/3B who is good organizational depth but isn’t a player you can really dream on. He isn’t a non-prospect, but a role 4/5 guy if it breaks the right way.

August 8

Cubs trade

Tyler Bremer (1-0, 1.13 ERA, 1.34 FIP, 8 IP, 7 G) (A)
Jose Arias (0-1, 2.70 ERA, 1.04 FIP, 13.1 IP, 7 G) (A)

for

Jacob Turner (1-4, 6.98 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 29.2, 7 G, 5 GS)

Bremer and Arias are little more than org arms, but Turner might not be far behind. Turner was a former top-prospect, who fires 97 mph bullets…that hitters about AA routinely barrel up and drive. For someone with Turner’s stuff, it would shock you to know that he doesn’t even strike out 6 per 9, but here we are. Turner is probably going to bounce around a half-dozen orgs as someone tries to unlock his potential.

August 15

Cubs trade

Brett Jackson (.000/.200/.000, .138 wOBA, 5 PA)

for

Blake Cooper (0-1, 0.87 ERA, 0.77 FIP, 8 G, 10.1 IP) AA

I hope Jackson figures it out in Arizona, but that might be one of the worst places for him to do so. Blake Cooper is just organizational filler.

In summary, the Cubs didn’t completely reload the farm system with their trades, but they got pretty close. Before the Cubs unloaded this year, their top 5 prospects were:

1. Kris Bryant
2. Javier Baez
3. Jorge Soler
4. Albert Almora
5. Arismendy Alcantara

3 of those graduated, but two new arrivals make the list similarly strong:

1. Kris Bryant
2. Addison Russell
3. Albert Almora
4. Billy McKinney
5. Kyle Schwarber

It’s not as good as last year’s list, but it did graduate 3 major-league starters and is still among the top 10 or so farm systems in the league. To get there, they traded an admittedly studly pitcher who was 50 starts from free agency, a pitcher they signed for $6 million, a LOOGY who I wanted to release earlier this year, a secret Washington National, a utility infielder, and a bunch of flotsam. That’s the kind of heist you can be proud of.

Bonus Top 10 current list (with projected ranks on the BA Top 100)

1. Kris Bryant (#1-#3)
2. Addison Russell (#3-5)
3. Albert Almora (#75-100)*
4. Billy McKinney (#75-100)*
5. Kyle Schwarber (#75-100)*
6. C.J. Edwards (#75-100)*
7. Jen-Ho Tseng (#75-100)*
8. Pierce Johnson (NR)
9. Daniel Vogelbach (NR)
10. Gleyber Torres (NR)

*No idea what order to arrange this interchangeable talents.

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