Consensus Midseason Top 50 Prospects

In Commentary And Analysis by GW

Top 87, technically.

It’s midseason prospect list time. With the release of Keith Law’s top 50 today, a majority of the mavens have now released their midseason updates. I took a look at as many of them as I could,* and combined them to produce a consensus list.

*I omitted Bleacher Report, but if someone would like to go through their slideshow and send me a readable list, I would be happy to include it if and when I update the list.

Since the majority of these lists are top 50’s, I assigned 50 points for a first place vote, 49 for a second, etc… and summed them all up. I am also showing a rating, which is simply the fraction of votes a prospect received as compared to a hypothetical unanimous #1 overall prospect. This should produce a better overall reflection of a prospect’s value than a simple ordinal ranking would.

Rk Player POS Team Rtg High Low
1 Byron Buxton OF MIN 98.9 1 3
2 Kris Bryant 3B CHC 98.6 1 3
3 Carlos Correa SS HOU 95.7 2 5
4 Addison Russell SS CHC 92.6 4 6
5 Francisco Lindor SS CLE 90.3 3 9
6 Javier Baez SS CHC 85.4 5 15
7 Jon Gray RHP COL 80.6 7 23
8 Dylan Bundy RHP BAL 80.0 7 16
9 Lucas Giolito RHP WSN 79.7 7 17
10 Archie Bradley RHP ARI 78.9 6 18
11 Joey Gallo 3B TEX 78.0 4 21
12 Miguel Sano 3B MIN 76.3 9 20
13 Corey Seager SS LAD 75.7 5 19
14 Noah Syndergaard RHP NYM 72.0 9 19
15 Robert Stephenson RHP CIN 63.7 10 36
16 Joc Pederson OF LAD 62.9 14 29
17 Julio Urias LHP LAD 61.4 13 36
18 Blake Swihart C BOS 56.0 14 29
19 Henry Owens LHP BOS 54.3 15 40
20 J.P. Crawford SS PHI 53.1 15 36
21 Tyler Glasnow RHP PIT 52.6 16 34
22 Alex Meyer RHP MIN 52.0 12 42
23 Hunter Harvey RHP BAL 47.7 13 UR
24 Kohl Stewart RHP MIN 38.6 19 UR
25 David Dahl OF COL 37.7 17 UR
26 Daniel Norris LHP TOR 37.1 22 UR
27 Arismendy Alcantara 2B CHC 36.6 18 50*
28 Taijuan Walker RHP SEA 35.7 7 UR
29 Raul A. Mondesi SS KC 32.9 22 UR
30 Austin Hedges C SDP 32.3 17 UR
31 Aaron Sanchez RHP TOR 32.0 13 UR
32 Jose Berrios RHP MIN 28.6 24 50
33 Braden Shipley RHP ARI 28.6 23 UR
34 Oscar Taveras OF STL 27.1 3 UR
35 Jameson Taillon RHP PIT 26.3 24 UR
36 Jorge Alfaro C TEX 23.4 25 UR
37 Kyle Zimmer RHP KC 22.6 21 UR
38 Mookie Betts 2B BOS 22.0 9 UR
39 Jorge Soler OF CHC 20.3 24 UR
40 Carlos Rodon LHP CHW 20.0 10 UR
41 Josh Bell OF PIT 19.1 29 UR
42 Jesse Winker OF CIN 18.9 29 UR
43 Mark Appel RHP HOU 18.0 33 UR
44 Jimmy Nelson RHP MIL 16.0 24 UR
45 Andrew Heaney LHP MIA 12.9 11 UR
46 Luis Severino RHP NYY 12.0 34 UR
47 Brandon Nimmo OF NYM 11.7 34 UR
48 Raimel Tapia OF COL 10.3 31 UR
49 Clint Frazier OF CLE 10.0 38 UR
50 Albert Almora OF CHC 10.0 33 UR
51 Matt Wisler RHP SDP 10.0 28 UR
52 Nick Gordon SS MIN 10.0 25 UR
53 Brady Aiken LHP HOU 8.9 20 UR
54 Nick Kingham RHP PIT 8.6 37 UR
55 Stephen Piscotty OF STL 8.6 30 UR
56 Hunter Dozier 3B KC 7.4 37 UR
57 Michael Conforto OF NYM 7.4 32 UR
58 A.J. Cole RHP WSN 7.1 32 UR
59 Alex Jackson C SEA 6.9 35 UR
60 Tyler Kolek RHP MIA 6.3 30 UR
61 James Paxton LHP SEA 6.0 30 UR
62 Kyle Crick RHP SFG 5.7 31 UR
63 Austin Meadows OF PIT 5.4 40 UR
64 D.J. Peterson 3B/1b SEA 4.9 40 UR
65 Dalton Pompey OF TOR 4.3 40 UR
66 Tim Anderson 2B BOS 3.7 38 UR
67 Hunter Renfroe OF PIT 3.7 44 UR
68 Jose Peraza SS ATL 3.4 39 UR
69 Kevin Plawecki C NYM 3.1 40 UR
70 Gary Sanchez C NYY 2.9 45 UR
71 Ryan McMahon 3B COL 2.9 41 UR
72 Joe Ross RHP SDP 2.9 41 UR
73 Nick Williams OF TEX 2.6 46 UR
74 Maikel Franco 3B PHI 2.6 43 UR
75 Michael Taylor OF WSN 2.6 42 UR
76 Aaron Blair RHP ARI 2.0 44 UR
77 Eddie Butler RHP COL 2.0 44 UR
78 Taylor Guerrieri RHP TB 2.0 44 UR
79 Aaron Judge OF NYY 1.7 45 UR
80 Rafael Montero RHP NYM 1.4 46 UR
81 Michael Lorenzen RHP CIN 1.1 47 UR
82 Rio Ruiz 3B HOU 1.1 47 UR
83 Lance McCullers RHP HOU 0.9 48 UR
84 Lewis Brinson OF TEX 0.9 48 UR
85 Alex (Chi Chi) Gonzalez RHP TEX 0.6 49 UR
86 Dominic Smith 1B NYM 0.6 49 UR
87 Miguel Almonte RHP KC 0.3 50 UR

Technical Notes

Most of the lists omit players currently in the majors. That has changed for some prospects based on differences in publication date. Most also choose not to rank recent draftees. I have dealt with these on a case-by-case basis.

  • Oscar Taveras, Mookie Betts, and Andrew Heaney were left off of the majority of the lists. Their position on the consensus list shouldn’t be taken as indicative of anything.
  • Likewise, only two lists included draftees (Keith Law and Prospect 361). Don’t read much into the positioning of Carlos Rodon, Alex Jackson, Tyler Kolek, and Brady Aiken.
  • For Arismendy Alcantara and Jimmy Nelson, on the other hand, I have made adjustments. Both were considered by most lists. Keith Law omitted them, but indicated that both would have made it. I gave both a #50 overall ranking for Law. Likewise, Marc Hulet indicated that Alcantara would have made his list, so I have ranked him #25 overall for Fangraphs. Both probably would move a few spots had all the lists considered them.

Sources

To get a better understanding of each prospects strengths and weaknesses, please check out comments from the authors of these lists. Consensus ranks were based on seven sources.

Baseball America

Baseball Prospectus

Minor League Ball (John Sickels)

ESPN (Keith Law)

Fangraphs (Marc Hulet)

The Baseball Haven (Evan Vogel)

Prospect 361 (Rich Wilson)

 

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