Where We Stand Now 5.1.12 – Batters

In Commentary And Analysis by berselius48 Comments

Now that a month has passed, let's take a look back at what's gone wrong (and a few things that have gone right). First, a look at the batters. Here are the regulars' current slash lines, wOBA, BABIP, and preseason projected wOBAs. I'm only doing Johnson and Mather because they've picked up the most PAs of the bench guys, and because I'm lazy.

Player AVG OBP SLG wOBA BABIP Projected wOBA
C Geovany Soto .135 .224 .250 .210 .154 .338
1B Bryan LaHair .382 .470 .727 .489 .607 .341
2B Darwin Barney .266 .310 .367 .299 .299 .296
SS Starlin Castro .326 .344 .430 .344 .364 .334
3B Ian Stewart .160 .222 .253 .209 .196 .317
LF Alfonso Soriano .236 .250 .250 .212 .304 .321
CF Marlon Byrd .070 .149 .070 .093 .091 .322
CF Tony Campana .435 .458 .435 .461 .556 .289
RF David DeJesus .254 .361 .310 .304 .327 .326
UT Reed Johnson .226 .250 .419 .285 .318 .308
UT Joe Mather .292 .414 .458 .397 .333 .289

The Good

Bryan LaHair, Castro….that's about it.

LaHair has had *just* a bit of BABIP luck so far this year, but he's hitting the ball with enough authority not to worry so much about it.

Tony Campana is going to be a guy who crushes in the BABIP department due to his speed, but a run like this obviously won't as long. I like seeing him batting second, because he's the prototypical two-hole hitter who actually has speed as opposed to the prototypical two-hole hitter that plays in the middle infield but has average speed.

The Bad

DeJesus has disappointed thus far, mostly in the power department. He is getting on base at a good clip though.

Darwin Barney is doing Darwin Barney things. He probbaly shouldn't be doing them in the second spot in the order, but his bulked-up transformation hasn't paid much in the way of dividends so far

The Ugly

Geovany Soto has just done nothing at the plate this year, and is already threatened by additional playing time by Clevenger/Castillo. There's a lot to be optimistic about in his line, however. For one, the .153 BABIP says he's suffered from some bad luck. His walk rate is right on with his career numbers, and he's actually striking out less than he has over the course of his career.

Soriano has been pants this month, collecting only two extra base hits following a scorching hot spring. Soriano is a streaky hitter so he will probably have one good month in him this year, but that's about it. He has looked significantly better on defense using the eyeball metric, but his past performance is a pretty low bar to clear. Unlike Geo there isn't a lot to read into his line, he's just sucked. We just have to wait for his power to come back.

I liked what I saw from Ian Stewart for the first week or so of the season, but things aren't looking so great now. At least with Soriano you have some hope for his power returning, while Stewart has looked like just as much of a mess as he was last year in Colorado. His admitting that his wrist is still bothering him is a worrisome sign. Joe Mather and Jeff Baker could be sneaking more PAs away from him before long. Unlike Soriano he doesn't have as much of a skillset to back up on – when he was helthy he was only a ~1.5 win player.

Marlon Byrd is gone. What a putrid line – I don't think I've ever seen a non-pitcher post a BABIP that low before. Since going to the Red Sox the hits have been falling in, but he's still yet to record and XBH this year.

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  1. Mercurial Outfielder

    LaHair has had *just* a bit of BABIP luck so far this year, but he’s hitting the ball with enough authority not to worry so much about it.

    (dying laughing)

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  4. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Rice Cube:
    I just hope his regression isn’t so hard that the Cubs get tempted to bring up Rizzo before he’s past the risk of Super Two status.

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  5. Rice Cube

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:
    I think they can guarantee the extra year once it gets past the All-Star Break so I do hope he doesn’t crash and burn until then. This front office doesn’t seem to give a shit what fans think though and so will probably just wait it out.

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  15. bubblesdachimp

    I see no reason Lahair cant keep doing this..

    In 70 plate appearences

    he has 23 hits 25 ks and 11 walks…

    Think about that only 11 times has he grounded out, lined out, or flown out…

    He is having the most insane statistical season ever. 84% of the time he gets on base or strikes out

    (dying laughing)
    (dying laughing)

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  18. Suburban kid

    @ Mercurial Outfielder:

    I know that the MLB 12 commercial and Buck’s speech are simply playful and optimistically light-hearted in nature, but you have to imagine that at some point, if we keep poking the sleeping bear – in this case the rage of a century of nightmares for Cubs fans – that bear is going to wake up and tear us to shreds.

    Soon, Cubs fans will just start showing up at baseball stadiums and start beating the crap out of everyone.

    All in favor?

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  22. bubblesdachimp

    @ Suburban kid:

    I mean lets split the difference and say he finishes with a .900 OPS…

    What do the Cubs do then? Would they really put him out in LF?

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  24. Rice Cube

    @ Mish:
    [spoiler title=”BATMAN!!!”]It looks like they really are going to do Knightfall and Knights End. I’m not sure what I think of that. They were great stories, but they were also spread out and with a movie like this I don’t see how they can cram everything into 2.5 hours or less. But then again, I’m a comic book nerd and I probably expect too much perfection.[/spoiler]

    Yeah…Batman stuff.

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  31. Mish

    Haha I never really read comics, of any type. I watched the cartoons and movies. I really don’t give a shit if it’s close to a comic line or not; it just needs to be a good movie.

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  35. bubblesdachimp

    Serious question say come all star break Bryan Lahair has close to a .900 OPS with 20 ish homeruns..

    Shouldnt the market for him be huge since he is in his prime and he is cost controlled for another 6 years?

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  36. Author
    Berselius

    bubblesdachimp wrote:

    Shouldnt the market for him be huge since he is in his prime and he is cost controlled for another 6 years?

    He’s also pushing 30, which should put big downward pressure on his value. He’ll be worth something but it’s not like teams will expect him to hit like this for the next 6 years. He was only projected to hit in the mid .340s, which isn’t all that special for a 1b. Playing around the rest of these offensive nothings makes him look a lot better.

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  39. WaLi

    Is LaHair’s BABIP high not only because of luck, but also because he hits HR? Or would the HR bring down his BABIP since they aren’t included.

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  40. Rice Cube

    @ Mish:
    I’m sure it’ll be a good movie, as the comic book storyline was badass. I’m just having trouble wrapping my mind around how they’d squeeze that much into one movie.

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  41. Rice Cube

    @ WaLi:
    HR isn’t included and since he strikes out like 40% of the time, they’re only measuring the other 60% of the time when he actually puts a ball in play. Very constricted sample.

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  46. Mercurial Outfielder

    @ Mish:
    Does any single mainstream media contingent harbor more cretins per capita than the Chicago sports media?

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