The Cubs new President of Baseball Ops was one of the best GMs in the game. Their new GM was one of the best assistants in the game prior to becoming the GM of the Padres. He rebuild the Padres farm system in two years. The Cubs new player development director is also one of the better ones around. I don't think anyone would deny that the previous statements are true. It's something we can all likely agree about.
They're going to make mistakes. One of the better comments Theo made the day he was introduced as President of Baseball Ops was about how if you're right 55% of the time you're doing really well. I'd quibble with the percentage, but it's irrelevant. We can also all agree that GMs, no matter how smart they may be, are going to make mistakes. They're going to sign players they should have stayed away from. They'll add unnecessary prospects into a trade because they're desperate. They'll pay a player more than he's worth. They'll sign him to far too many years and if they're around long enough they'll also sign players to horrible contracts. They'll make terrible trades. They'll look like they just might be the worst in the business from time to time.
Are we still on the same page? Great.
Several A few days ago the Cubs signed a young Cuban prospect in Gerardo Concepcion. He and the Cubs agreed to a Major League contract meaning he is immediately added to the 40-man roster.The contract is worth about $7 million. It's a relatively meaningless sum of money. His spot on the roster is also relatively meaningless. It's not like the Cubs have anyone else they currently need to protect though that could easily change in the near future. But it's still a $7 million investment so the question is about whether or not it was a good one.
Baseball in Cuba is probably the equivalent of no better than High A. If we look at the Florida State League because that's probably where Concepcion will begin his career, the average pitcher struckout 7.4 per 9 and walked 2.3 per 9. Concepcion struckout 4.7 and walked 3.8 per 9. His numbers are well below that of the average FSL pitcher. Concepcion would be quite young for that level, but still. Those are not encouraging numbers.
He's not especially difficult to hit either. He allowed just over a hit per inning. His numbers remind me a lot of Jeff Samardzija's numbers in college.
Over 3 years in college, most of which Samardzija spent preparing for Notre Dame football, he threw 240 innings, allowed 236 hits, and 11 home runs. He walked 84 and struckout just 159. Per 9 innings, that is 8.8 hits, .4 HR, 3.2 BB, and 6 strikeouts. He had a 3.82 ERA.
Last year Concepcion threw 101.2 innings, allowed 103 hits and 6 home runs. He walked 43 and struckout 53. Per 9 innings, that is 9.1 hits, .5 home runs, 3.8 walks, and 4.7 strikeouts. Concepcion's numbers are quite a bit worse than Samardzija's unimpressive college career.
The reason Samardzija got the big bucks is becase he had a 99 mph fastball and hadn't focused on baseball all that much. There was reason to believe he could develop into a front line starting pitcher. Samardzija did add a few more strikeouts, but that was about it. In the minors he walked 3.9 as opposed to 3.2 per 9. He struckout 6.3 per 9 compared to 6 per 9. He allowed 9 hits per 9. His home runs increased. He just never missed enough bats to become the pitcher some thought he might. He has since become a relief pitcher and he's not even that good at his job.
Unlie Samardzija, Concepcion's fastball sits 89-92. Sure, it could increase a few mph, but I'll be pretty damn surprised if his stirkeouts increase enough to make him a useful big league player. We're not talking about a guy who has struckout 7 per 9 and needs to increase it to be effective. We're talking about someone who can barely strike anybody out. We're also not talking about someone who has the control of a David Wells.
I trust that Theo and Jed Hoyer saw something in Concepcion because they wouldn't have signed him if they hadn't. I don't trust that he's going to be good just because those two saw something in him. I hope he ends up being useful, but he has a long long way to go before that happens. This front office will make mistakes. We shouldn't trust that everything they do is going to work out anymore than we did the previous front office. Hopefully they make a few less mistakes over the years, but I don't think it does anybody any good to just say this front office saw something in them and leave it at that.
The Cubs saw something in Jeff Samardzija. They saw something in Tyler Colvin. They saw something in every player they acquired. Theo and Jed saw something in every player they acquired. They also made mistakes. They'll continue to make them. I trust that this front office is going to be more alanytical than the previous one. In all honesty, that is the only thing I trust. I hope this front office makes some great decisions that creates a great team for the Cubs, but it's not all that easy to accomplish.
Agreed. And if/when worse comes to worst, and Concepcion fails, the Cubs are out roughly the same amount of money they gave John Grabow a couple of years back.
If this regime is going to fuck up, I’d rather it be on the Gerardo Concepcions of the world than the John Grabows.
@ Smokestack Lightning:
Same here. I don’t like wasting money, but all things considered this isn’t that much money. I’d have preferred they spent this $7 million on other amateur players, but whatever.
That league was also very hitter-friendly with 8-9 guys having around 30 home runs. Last year was an odd year so it’s hard to judge his numbers exactly, remember two hitters broke the home run record the year we are talking about.
Any word on his other pitches? I’d also be interested in frame and size while you’re at it.
Wait, what?
@ ACT:
You disagree with them?
@ Pezcore:
6-2, 180
@ mb21:
No, but I would deny that they aren’t true.
Scouting Report River Ave Blues is the report we’ve been using.
This is Baseball America’s report
Apparently his slider is really wowing people.
It’s his mechanics that are limiting his fastball as well as control. His curveball is apparently pretty nasty, along with a decent changeup. He’s tall (6’2”) with a wirey frame and could still fill out. Remember, he had a 3.36 ERA in a hitter-friendly league and was rookie of the year. It seems like he’s a toosly signing where mechanics can be adjusted.
Baseball America cites him as being able to reach 92-94 on his fastball with current mechanics.
Concepcion throws a 4-seam fastball that lacks polish. He dialed it up to 95 in relief. You generally add 3 mph in relief so he can probably top out at 92 as a starter. I believe his slider is his best pitch, but he has as much control of it as Carlos Marmol has of any pitch. He’s thrown curves and changes, but both are below average at this point. If he can develop one of those and throw the slider for more strikes he might be decent.
@ ACT:
(dying laughing) I’m an idiot
@ Pezcore:
That’s the first I’d seen 92-94. I’m pretty sure MLB reported 89-92.
There’s also this scouting report: http://baseballinstinct.com/2012/02/04/prospect-instinct-2012-gerardo-concepcion-lhp-chicago-cubs/
It’s the one that says he reached 95 as a reliever.
I think we’ll see in two-three years. Snap Judgement:I think he’ll either be 2-3 Starter/Set-up Man or flop completely — and we won’t know until 2-3 years down the road when he’s gotten used to new mechanics.
That Slider looks like it could by Gnhasty one day from the description. It’ll only get scarier as his frame fills out. If he’s really 18 he might not be done growing.
I like the signing now but what he’ll become is a complete enigma. Looks like high upside.
I think he sounds like a reliever. Poor mechanics, best pitch can’t be thrown for a strike and low strikeout rate along with OK control.
mb21 wrote:
The talk is Theo & Company are going to break down and rebuild his mechanics — so what mechanics he’s using now is irrelevant. That’ll be what makes and breaks him. I heard from the reports alot of speculation on what he could become given proper mechanics and not alot of great things about what he is now.
Esentially, his sucess relies on changing his mechanics to fix his problems.
We’ll start seeing signs if he booms or busts in a year or two. Definintly worth watching. I wouldn’t get too hung up on the numbers — last year was a record offensive season in the Cuba league and he’s only 19.
Pezcore wrote:
this is never a good sign
@ GW:
Agreed. I think any pitching coach will tell you that you never want to do that. The Cubs broke down Mark Pawelek’s mechanics and he went from throwing 96 to 85. You can make minor changes, but if they try to make significant changes they’re just asking for trouble. I think the Cubs will make small tweaks, but they aren’t going to have him pitching significantly different than they did when they scouted him.
@ GW:
Did he have upside-down-W syndrome?
I also saw Aisley’s video from the last thread and am surprised that Russia and the United States Southwest aren’t crawling with mutant mole people.
The Cubs also forced Rich Hill to use different mechanics and he was never the same. I’ll be very disappointed in this front office if they do that. You just can’t take what a guy has done his entire life and change it significantly and expect it to work out well.
Speaking of giving random Cubans large sums of money, the Marlins have reportedly given Cespedes a roughly $40MM offer over 6 years.
@ Rice Cube:
Any word on where Soler ends up?
@ Pezcore:
I don’t think so. Someone told me that Soler hasn’t established residency yet but I didn’t actually look that up.
baseball america report on Jorge Soler
Word is Cubs, Orioles, Yankees, Natinals, and A’s are all interested. Seems worth the money, could Thepstien get both?
@ Rice Cube:
not yet, apparently..
According to these guys Cubs could bring out the broom and sweep Soler, Cepedes and Concepcion. Lord knows how to build a lineup that competes in 2015 with three centerfielders though. Thoyer will figure it out. You never know, we could always convert Soler to Third or Second.
Rice Cube wrote:
Have you ever been to Arizona?
@ GBTS:
Yes, but I thought those were Mexicans.
Hey, you got that Fozzie gif? I was unable to find it.
@ Rice Cube:
http://i41.tinypic.com/ztaviv.gif
Thank you kindly, Mr. GBTS.
I think the Concepcion signing is head-scratching from his numbers, but the scouts seem to like him. I saw someone say the other day that if Concepcion would have gone late first to early second round if he were in the draft.
@ Rice Cube:
I figured it was the least I could do, after you so kindly took those Valentine’s Day photos for SK.
@ GBTS:
I wonder if they had the time of their lives…
/Dirty Dancing’d
Berselius wrote:
Kevin Goldstien said it on twitter. Also said he was the 6th Best Cub prospect. Haven’t heard from much from anyone else on him.
Jorge Soler is supposedly would’ve been a top-5 pick according to Baseball America, and he has no stats or awards… They think he’s a black Bubba Starling.
Berselius wrote:
The feeling seems to be that he’s going to fill out and be able to put on weight. Then again, all I’ve seen on the kid is from OV and those articles, but I’d think more muscle mass would really help the slider and fastball.
If the cubs do end up completely reworking his motion, that would probably mean he ends up in exst/boise this year. i would guess that makes him a long shot for being up in three years. i’ll be dissappointed if it comes to that.
@ Berselius:
Which is about a million bucks and no MLB contract.
@ GW:
Based on what Levine said it sounds like he’ll begin no higher than Peoria (A ball) and possibly in Boise. Boise is a short-season A league that begins shortly after the MLB Draft in June.
I don’t think he’s up within 3 years anyway. He’s a long way away from the big leagues. I think he’s as far away as a high school pitcher who was just drafted. If all goes well maybe he gets to the big leagues in 2016. My guess is he’s released or traded because I don’t see him reaching the big leagues by the time he uses his options up.
@ mb21:
You think things could change if gained 20 pounds? Maybethen he’d recieve an increase in velocity or drop on his slider?
I think it’s almost completley pointless to think much on the issue at this point. Maybe by August or September we can know more.
mb21 wrote:
In a market where the player has only one team that can sign him, fwiw
Aren’t options only used when he’s sent down from the big leagues? If he spent the next three years in A-ball and on the forty man he should be fine.
Couldn’t the Cubs also re-sign him to a new, friendly contract in 2016? Say he’s a borderline top 10 guy, 1 million a year?
I need the rules fully explained here before I can make a judgement.
@ Pezcore:
I think a lot of things can happen at this point. He could gain 20 pounds, add a few mph, develop some of those pitches and become a quality top of the rotation starter. He could add 20 pounds, lose some velocity, fail to develop those pitches and never make it past A ball. I have no idea what is going to happen. All I really know is what his numbers are and they suck. The scouts say he’s really good so that’s another data point. Maybe we weight the scouts more heavily than the numbers at this point. I think we should, but again, those numbers suck. They just plain suck.
Ask yourself this, if the Cubs drafted some 18 year old out of Southern California and he had numbers worse than many others drafted his age, would you be happy if the Cubs signed him for $7 million and gave him an MLB contract?
A lot can happen though. There’s always the possibility he develops as the scouts think and there’s an equal possibility that he’s a lot worse than they though. The scouts liked Hayden Simpson. He was a 3rd to 5th round talent. He was one of the top 200 draft prospects entering the 2010 season. His numbers were out of this world. He also put up those numbers in Divsion 2.
@ Pezcore:
Once you’re added to the 40-man roster you begin using options. So when the Cubs break camp this year they will have optioned Concepcion to the minors. They could call him up and send down as many times as they want in 2012 and it’s one option. When they option him to the minors in 2013 it’s his 2nd option. And so on.
@ Berselius:
True, but the Cubs would have been better off letting some other team pay whatever the second highest offer was. I find it hard to believe there were even two teams offering MLB contracts to this guy.
WTF. Whitney Houston died.
@ mb21:
I know we can equate the Cuban league generally as the equivalent of High A ball, but I think we need to examine the guy within the context of the league this year. It was a record year with Cepedes and another hitter breaking the home run barrier. 32 Home runs is alot when your season in around 90 games.
What is high A ball anyway?
Example: If you had a AAA pitcher from the PCL and the IL put up similar numbers would they be rated the same? No, the PCL pitcher would be bettter, because the PCL inflates offensive numbers. My theory on the numbers is that this year’s Cuban league may inflate offensive power more than previous incarnations. True, the league may mostly play out like A ball, but there are ML-Quality hitters he was facing too.
My question: How does Concepcion fare against league-average ERA or his peers in 2011?
Second: You are given two prospects. One is 19 and never played professionally but is ‘explosive’ and ‘impressive’ and has impressive raw tools.
The other is average, played at A+ Ball, went 10-3 with a ERA close to 3 and garnered several player of the week awards.
The second one costs about 1/3 as much as the first.
Who would you chose?
mb21 wrote:
Nope. Still sends me to http://www.obstructedview.net/wp-comments-post.php when anything goes wrong with the captcha, and blanks the comment text.
If you want to test this, it should be easy:
1) Log out
2) Write some comment text and enter something wrong in the captcha box
3) Hit “Post Comment”, then sit back and enjoy looking at http://www.obstructedview.net/wp-comments-post.php
4) Hit back and watch your comment text disappear
5)
6) ??????
7) Profit
Report on Cuban National League in 2010-11 Season from Baseball Reference
League leader in average hit .453…
Another choice:
Player one hit .333/.424/.667 at a AA Equivalent. He had 33 Home Runs and 89 RBIs in just 90 Games. He is 26.
Player two hit .331/.405/.664 at a AAA Equivalent. He had 38 Home Runs and 109 RBIs in just 129 Games. He is 29.
Who would choose?
@ Pezcore:
I actually don’t care much about the ERA. The strikeouts and walks are the most repeatable events for pitchers. The average K-rate in Cuba appears to be on par with what it is in Japan from what I found earlier today. Not to mention, I’m not sure it really matters what the K rate is in Cuba. Obviously there are small differences depending on ballpark, but missing bats is a skill. If Concepcion had it, he’d be racking up the K’s. He clearly doesn’t have miss the bat stuff. At least not yet anyway.
This is a projectability signing. He’s years away from the big leagues so the Cubs are taking a chance that they can help develop him and turn him into something more valuable than they paid.
Whether or not Concepticon is any good doesn’t really matter, it still seems crazy to give him an MLB contract. If you think he’s good and another team is bidding, fuck it, give him $10M instead of 7. Or even 12. You’re the Cubs, you can afford it, even if you hadn’t spent fuck-all this offseason. Being on the 40-man screws the team for years and does very little if anything to sweeten the deal for the player.
So… Is anybody else starting to wonder if Concepcion’s going to find himself in a Monterrey Sultanas uniform before the year’s out?
@ mb21:
Agreed. I, however, don’t think we can judge from the stats at all. What concerns me more is the mechanical issues and that two reports recommend the Cubs break them down.
That being said, I think I’d feel worse about Soler and much worse if we went out and signed Cepedes. Pitching is a major area of need in the organization while Outfielder is the biggest strength.
fang2415 wrote:
This. The 40-man spot was part of the negotiation. Concepcion took less money since he was added to the 40-man. Just give him more money. I still probably wouldn’t like it, but I’d rather they give him $10-12 million and keep that spot open.
@ Rice Cube:
If Mish posted that, I wouldn’t believe it.
@ GBTS:
Should I be happy that you trust me more?
Rice Cube wrote:
Insightful comment, although I disapprove of Whitney Houston dying.
@ fang2415:
I was a bit surprised despite her troubled lifestyle. I really loved her work back in the day.
I’m also quietly reading the other baseball-related comments and learning quite a bit.
testing
I seriously am half-wondering if Thoyer signed him on behalf of some Japanese team or something who has a trade chip they’re after, thus rendering the MLB options and everything meaningless. That rule 5 thing they did flipping some random to the Monterrey Sultanas was so weird that I keep thinking that some equal and opposite weird thing is going to have to happen later that will make sense of it. This seems pretty fucking weird, so…
@ Rice Cube:
Something tells me she may have run into a slightly worse addiction relapse than having a few beers with Ian Kinsler…
She was on TV here a few years back and looked less healthy than any non-Amy-Winehouse performer I think I’ve ever seen in public. Methinks there may be a few slightly sad stories emerging about this one as the press begins swarming around the corpse…
fang2415 wrote:
I really don’t actually hate the signing. Sure, it’s high risk, but compared to the outfielders it’s good value. There’s a good chance he becomes nothing. There is also a good chance he turns into a mid-rotation starter or top notch LOOGY (Left-Handed stopper) within 3 years. One of the articles even said the Cubs could try him out this year at the ML level to see what he’s got. At the end of the day, it’s seven million for a player who was a rookie of the year at 19 in a fairly competitive league who is considered an all-potential prospect who is far from his ceiling. Where else can we get solid pitching options in three years? Is a free-agent starter cheaper? Will the 2013 draft arrive sooner?
@ Pezcore:
I agree. At worst I think my reaction is “meh” and it’s not like they broke the bank on this kid.
@ Pezcore:
Meh, yeah, sure. I don’t really have strong opinions about his value. I just don’t get why you’d give a teenager an MLB contract when you could have just thrown more money at him. The MLB contract doesn’t make sense if he’s awesome and it doesn’t make sense if he sucks. In either case, just throw a jillion dollars at him to join your system and then bring him up at your own pace (and his!).
The only reason I bring up that Mexican-team thing is that that was the only thing Thoyer’s done so far that’s been weirder than this. My conspiratorial brain is just looking for an explanation.
(dying laughing) @ the many shades of “Meh” in this thread. We are really bored. (dying laughing)d
@ fang2415:
I think the major league contract here sets precendence. It really does hurt the value, and if Jorge Soler wants one in addition to his 20 Million, I think we should pass.
I think firetheoepstien.com is started if he actually does sign all three as has been suggested. All sources point to the Cubs targeting both Soler and Cepedes heavily.
@ fang2415:
I know the 40-man roster spot taken up by Concepticon is important, but I feel like if need be, most of the guys currently on the 40-man could always be knocked off to make room anyway (dying laughing)
As in, you could make an argument for at least half the 40-man being wasted spots.
@ Rice Cube:
it’s not the roster space so much as the enforced timetable
To clarify, every single year is an option if he’s not on the MLB roster, right?
@ GW:
I’m thinking Thoyer finds (or has already found) a loophole around it, whether it be extending him or resigning him to a new minor league contract when this expires. Plus, who knows if the rules will change by the time this situation comes to fruition.
He’s probably worth way more now than he will be in 2015 even if he develops on track. I can’t see as more than a top-5 prospect by then.
Rice Cube wrote:
Yep, that’s what MB21 says, and that’s my conclusion too.
I’m certainly not an expert on roster rules, but my vague impression is that there are rules about how much time MLB-contracted players have to spend on the roster, and if you take them off too much then other teams can claim them on waivers or rule 5 or whatever. I think MB mentioned above that there’s a similar thing for MiLB-contracted players, but I’m too lazy to scroll up (dying laughing). But by signing him to an MLB contract now, that clock is ticking a lot faster than it would be otherwise.
So… given that the guy is like 12 years old and would need a long time to be MLB-ready even if he was setting the world on fire in Cuba, the Cubs are basically in a spot where they not only need him to be MLB-ready, but to do it really fast. And if it takes any longer than that, then another team snaps him up when he’s just entering his prime and reaps the benefit of the Cubs’ $7M.
Lots of people are arguing about whether GC is really worth $7M, but I haven’t seen anybody who’s even attempted to explain why the hell he’s getting a $7M MLB contract rather than a $7M MiLB one (or $8M, or whatever). It’s one of those things that is so weird that you figure that either Thoyer have done something obviously stupid, or that they’ve got some guy-behind-the-guy scheme worked out that makes sense of all this. They’re no dummies, so I’ve invented a conspiracy theory about proxy deals with Mexican teams in order to be able to continue to assume that they’re smart. (dying laughing)
INB4 this should’ve been a fanpost. (dying laughing)
@ Pezcore:
Okay, cool. Thanks to you all and GW too. Now I know…
Right, now that I’ve written a 40-page novel on Concepticon conspiracy theories:
Local time —-> 2:40 am
Whitney Houston —-> still dead
Mish’s dad —-> still alive
fang2415 —-> bed
Later, fuckfaces.
@ fang2415:
A much better conspiriacy theory is that Geraldo Concepcion is actually compensation for Theo’s signing. This is even more likely considering the Yankees were the team the Cubs outbid and the Sawx saved around 7 Million from trading Scutaro.
MLB is trying to start an international draft, they’ll soon have a new comissioner, who knows how international signings will be grandfathered in. The system is in flu. The effects of him simply being on the 40-man for a certain amount of time is inconclusive. Why can’t he just sign him to a new MLB contract when he runs out of options and refill his option bar? I’m no expert but that is how it works in video games and OOTP Baseball.
We really need to dig into the new CBA before we can judge exactly what timetable Concepcion is under. The new one, not the old one.
I’m fairly certain that 40-man players are ineligible for the rule 5… we discussed it, I think, when Josh Vitters was running out of options.
@ Pezcore:
I don’t think the Cubs have the roster spots to target all 3 of them. I actually don’t think they have another spot to target either of the other two
@ GW:
I think it’s both. They already have Szczur who is going to have to be on the MLB club by 2014 and the following year Concepcion will. That’s 2 roster spots taken up by guys who really shouldn’t have MLB contracts.
Biz of Baseball wrote:
So, Conception plays out like this:
Option 1–>2012 Season (age 19)
Option 2–>2013 Season (age 20)
Option 3–>2014 Season (age 21)
Option done by using three options—>2015 Season (age 22)
The Cubs have until 2016 for Concepcion to develop with these rules when he will be age 23.
If his isn’t ready by then, he can always be non-tendered, and we can re-negotiate the contract and sign him to a minor league deal.
@ Pezcore:
The current CBA won’t expire before his options are up. Concepcion gets 3 options. The length of the contract is irrelevant since he has to have 6 years of MLB service time before he can file for free agency. They could have given him $7 million for one year and Concepcion would still be with the Cubs organization the following year. Let’s say the Cubs option him to the minors in 2012, 2013 and 2014. He’d have to be on the big league club starting the season in 2015. Let’s say his 5-year contract pays him $1.4 per year. So he’d make $4.2 million those 3 option years and then he’d make $1.4 million in 2015 (rookie season), $1.4 million in 2016), league minimum in 2017 and then he’d be arbitration eligible each of 2018, 2019 and 2020.
Considering the Cubs timetable for contention I’d be very surprised, even if things go well for Concepcion, if he was eligible for MLB free agency prior to the end of the 2020 season.
@ Pezcore:
I forgot about that. I assume that’s part of the new CBA. I know it was part of the old one, but don’t know for sure if it’s included in the new one.
@ fang2415:
They’re no dummies, but they have made and will make stupid mistakes. Based on what we know right now, I believe this to be a stupid mistake, but if the stupid mistakes they make only cost the team that much money I’m not going to complain. They’ve done a lot of good things this offseason that I’ve really liked.
Yeah, that really helps the situation. I think we’ll know if he’s ready by 2016. This is also something we can negotiate out of by non-tendering and offering him a supple contract (ie 2-3 Million per year) with both sides knowing it is an agreement if A) he really needs another year by 2016 and B) if he’s worth holding onto by then.
He’s not eligible for Rule 5 for 5 season since he’s 18, so if he gets re-signed to a minor league deal, he still can’t be drafted.
By the way, Szczur and Concepcion are the reasons why the Cubs can’t sign Soler or Cespedes. They cannot have 3 young players in the minor leagues on MLB contracts. That’s a disaster waiting to happen and it’s a great way to make a front office look silly.
There’s a rumor floating around that the Marlins offered Cespedes 6/40
firetheoepstein.com is already registered.
I’m going to register fireberselius.com. (dying laughing)
mb21 wrote:
damn. forgot to renew that one.
mb21 wrote:
Just make sure you don’t email a link to my boss.
mb21 wrote:
That’s good news as I really don’t want Cepedes. Soler would be okay.
In that case, should we change ObstructedViews preffered Theo Compensation from Vitters –> Scuzzzur? Free up that roster spot for someone else?
Would Soler get a major league contract? He’s 19.
@ Aisle424:
I’ve read if he was in the draft he’d be a top 5 pick. Since Concepcion got the MLB contract I’d assume Soler does too.
http://www.throughthefencebaseball.com/chicago-cubs-prospect-watch-daniel-vogelbach/16010/
Pretty cool video of Heavy D hitting homeruns in there. Kid has insane power
http://www.throughthefencebaseball.com/chicago-cubs-prospect-watch-daniel-vogelbach/16010/
PRetty cool video of Heavy D hitting homeruns in there..
Kids power looks amazing
Rice Cube wrote:
Download | Convert YouTube to MP3
How has nobody posted this yet?
@ mb21:
When Hendry did something that looked smart I always assumed that in fact he did it for reasons that were actually too dumb for us to comprehend and which just accidentally coincided with what we thought of as smart. Now when Thoyer does something that looks dumb, I assume that in fact they’re doing it for reasons that are actually too smart for us to comprehend and which just accidentally coincide with what we think of as dumb. (dying laughing)
@ fang2415:
I don’t think Hendry was as bad as a lot of people do. I’m quite certain he was nowhere near the worst GM in the game and not near the best either.
@ mb21:
Agreed. I’m no huge Hendry fan but I find myself defending him more often than not these days. I think that’s more a factor of the conflation between “some bad moves” meaning he’s the worst GM every to have a job.
mb21 wrote:
I don’t like all the Hendry hate, either.
@ mb21:
Yeah, I agree actually. I think Hendry was kind of league average. If I was a Dodgers or a Royals fan right now I’d be thrilled to have him in place of the current bunch of clowns.
But sometimes when you’d post here about how the Hendry had smartly concluded that player X was worth Y WAR and therefore should be offered $Z million, I’d think, “hah, yeah, that may all add up, but something tells me Jim’s decision process ran more along the lines of thinking ‘He looks like he’s worth about, oh, yea much.’” (dying laughing)
He had a pretty good gut though, and got a lot of those calls right.
Also, Hendry was probably in the upper tier of old-school GMs. He played the game he knew how to play fairly well, but gets outclassed by some of the new school guys because they’re playing a whole new game.
/Sportswriter cliche’d
This has nothing to do with baseball.
http://chzsetphaserstol ol.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/sci-fi-fantasy-coexist.jpg
The macro strikes again. Just remove the space in the “l o l” part of the URL and it’ll come up in your browser.
/nerd
@ fang2415:
FWIW, the clowns in KC have managed to draft pretty well, much better than Hendry ever did. Greinke, Hosmer, Butler, Gordon, Starling, Montgomery, Odorizzi, Moustakas…they’ve done well, but they are so cash-strapped (and that’s where that FO SUCKS; really bad money men) they can’t hol onto these guys unless they take lesser deals with more years to stick around in KC.
/not a Hendry hater, just a bitter Royals fan
@ fang2415:
I don’t think it was luck. If it was then Hendry was lucky time and again and I don’t believe that. He may not have been as analytical as we’d have liked, but whatever information he was using had similar results. I’d say hendry was probably a bit above average for a GM. His entire tenure would look differently if two of the best pitchers in the league hadn’t been injured so frequently. The 2004 team won 89 games despite injuries to Wood and Prior (they combined for about 260 innings). The 2005 team had a pythag of 80 wins despite getting only 37 starts from those two and losing Nomar for almost the entire season. Damn near every offensive player except Lee and Ramirez were useless in 2009 and they still won, what, 83 games?
I know injuries are a part of baseball, but the Cubs lost significant playing time to significant contributors. The Cubs farm system has sucked ass since Hendry left as Director of Player Development. He was pretty damn good at that. The Cubs farm system ranked at the top or near the top for several years. Unfortunately almost all of them ended up injured.
I think we’ll see the Yankees farm system improve now that Hendry is there and presumably will have a larger role in scouting than he had as GM of the Cubs.
Rumors about that AJ Burnett ————> Pirates is in the works
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
FWIW, it’s easy to draft well when your team sucks so much that you get high picks.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Not to mention all those deals for the likes of Jeff Francouer, Melky Cabrera, Reggie Sanders, Jose Guillen, etc. etc.
At least when the Cubs overpaid for marginal guys their payroll could absorb it so much.
Berselius wrote:
Unless you’re Chuck LaMar (dying laughing)
Yeah, the Royals drafting well is impressive like it’s impressive how well the Rays have drafted. However, context is important. Now that the Rays are a good team we’ll see how well they draft in a few years as those guys would be expected to reach the big leagues. I’m not holding my breath.
mb21 wrote:
Yeah, I didn’t say he was lucky; I said that he seemed to make gut decisions and that his gut instincts seemed pretty good. Ultimately, I think an analytic process is going to be more flexible and reliable, but there’s nothing wrong with using your intuition if you’re good at it. Hendry was a decent intuitive decision maker, but I’m glad that a more analytical crew has replaced him.
I couldn’t be happier that the Cubs have moved in a more modern direction. Whether it results in more wins is to be seen, but I’m glad they have a front office that will be more analytical than the previous one.
@ mb21:
No shit?
@ Suburban kid:
shit
Kevin Goldstein wrote:
Is the Dominican League going to allow the Cuban Cubs entry?
I think Hendry did a damn good job.
I was never a pitchfork and fire torches guy about him.
Do Soler and Concepcion have the same agent. Recently on the BP podcast there was a discussion about the new CBA and how deals could get struck for guys with the same agent where there could be some bonus sharing behind close doors? Wonder if this is a possibility?
RC, it’s great that you’re still trying to put yourself out there after your embarrassing fail with JP Morgan.
This website has been acting funny for me lately. I hope the Cubs sign the whole Cuban league; I don’t care. After the new CBA begins, they can’t use the fact that they have more money than other people to get players, so they might as well make more risky bets right now.
@ GBTS:
Thanks, but I would never call myself “Roanald”…
Recalcitrant Blogger Nate wrote:
How so?
@ mb21:
for about 24 hours, I couldn’t sign in and was getting no updates of comments when I refreshed page. so i made a comment unsigned in, and it all seemed to resolve.
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
The comments issue is related to the cache plugin we use. I need more info about the login issue though. What happened when you tried to login? Anything you can tell me will help me figure it out. Thanks.
@ mb21:
when I logged in, I got the message “unsupported” or something like that even though it remembered my screen name and password
Let me know if it happens again, Nate.
Just wanted to let everyone here know I cooked with a cast iron skillet tonight. Just finished cleaning it, I can upload pics if you polymerizaphiles want.
Cubs might be out on Cespedes…
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/marlins-in-lead-for-cespedes-cubs-focused-on-soler.html
New facepalm up
http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/daily-facepalm-2-13-12.html