Travis Wood sucks. He started the day with a 20.50 ERA. He was spotted a 7-0 lead before he took the mound. He left after allowing the game to be tied by the 3rd inning. His ERA now stands at 25.07.
Don't talk to me about small sample sizes. He blows.
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He fits right in!
Technically, since he pitched 2+ innings, he got at least 6 outs (dying laughing)
Beef Castle just picked a guy off at second. Did he fall down?
Jay Jackson is having a nice spring, ERA-wise. Too bad he has negative five strikeouts.
Rice Cube wrote:
Nice snark.
@ Berselius:
Sounds like Castro snuck in behind the lead runner.
Gift double for Beef Castle.
Sveum is trying to stretch Jay Jackson it seems. This is his fourth inning of work.
@ Rice Cube:
That can only mean one thing: Jay Jackson is a lock for the rotation.
But Wood isn’t going to get an L since it was tied when he left right? So he must have been playing okay!
mb21 wrote:
I read that in Rick Moranis’ Dark Helmet voice.
@ WaLi22:
No L means he’s still alive for the rotation. it’s between him and Matt Garza who hasn’t pitched particularly well in Arizona. That’s the final spot and will be determined the final week of spring training.
I understand the reasoning behind the trade and I still think it’s a good trade, but Travis Wood sucking so bad in spring training makes it hard to justify.
that is the greatest headline i have ever seen
Rice Cube wrote:
I don’t care. It’s spring training. Lorenzo Cain is leading all hitters this spring in OPS. Yadier Molina is 9th. Travis Snider and Eric Burress are 11th and 12th. Andrus has a .989 OPS.
Kevin Correia hasn’t allowed a run yet in 9 innings. Only 4 hits allowed. This guy (http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mendolu01.shtml) has allowed 6 baserunners in 10.2 innings. Strasburg has a 7.45 ERA. Roy Halladay’s is 10.57. Jeff Samardzija earned a spot in a rotation.
Bobby Scales had a 1.042 OPS last spring.
@ mb21:
Oh, I wasn’t referring to myself, but more to all the people who thought they shouldn’t have traded Sean Marshall and are using this as justification.
Cubs win! Wood was obviously pitching to the score.
@ Rice Cube:
The justification for the trade is the same today as it was prior to spring training. Spring stats are useless for a number of reasons.
1. The run environment is quite high
2. Players are working on things and not necessarily trying to put together quality outings
3. the sample size is ridiculously small (sorry, 424)
There are other factors, but those 3 make them useless. I don’t care if Castro bats .000/.000/.000 in spring training over 75 plate appearances or 1.000/1.000/4.000 over 125 PA. It wouldn’t change my expectation of him one bit.
mb21 wrote:
I can’t argue with you today.
Aisle424 wrote:
Shut me right up.
Reference to Bartman: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/03/19/in-illinois-santorums-chance-at-nomination-is-slipping-away/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
@ mb21:
For those who don’t want to read the article:
mb21 wrote:
So Travis Wood is the most shit guy?
Pell Mell wrote:
He is a waste of horse cum fuck face
@ Aisle424:
(dying laughing) that’s the best line ever.
Doug Padilla…
Why would they put Jackson in the bullpen?
Rice Cube wrote:
Someone has to take Samardzija’s place.
@ Aisle424:
The bullpen test will never die.
@ Rice Cube:
It’s part of Cubs history now. Have to continue the trend.
Which guy had the extra option? Wells or Volstad? I don’t think they’d force one of them into the bullpen if they are serious about the F7 experiment so I guess they’d keep stretched out in Iowa if/when F7 fails.
I think Wells and Volstad have to clear waivers before being optioned to the minor leagues. Neither would clear waivers.
@ mb21:
Prelude to a trade?
@ mb21:
I’m ready for spring to be over so we can get to losing the games that matter. Wells, Volstad, Wood — it doesn’t matter who wins the spot, it’s going to be bad.
mb21 wrote:
Barring disaster, Volstad is going to be in the rotation to start. I think the last spot comes down to Samardzija and Wells since Wood has shit all over himself every time he has touched a baseball this Spring.
I’m guessing it’s Garza, Dempster, Maholm, Volstad, Samardzija with Randy Wells hitting the trading block.
So…I was just thinking about cats.
http://meowjerleaguebaseball.tumblr.com/
@ Aisle424:
I hope Travis Wood doesn’t come here and read that out of context. (dying laughing)
Wow the A’s are making Cespedes their starting CF over Crisp.
What the fuck is a godjra?
Maybe they’re seriously trying to give the Astros a run at last place? Sveum is the fall guy?
@ GBTS:
Crisp to right? Or what are they doing with him?
Aisle424 wrote:
@ josh:
Coco Crisp is going to LF. So sayeth the media.
@ Aisle424:
Any chance this whole thing was elaborate attention-getting/performance art? Did you see the “devil” Peyton he posted?
josh wrote:
I’ve looked at the rest of the Twitter feed and there isn’t much going on there that indicates an intellect capable of something like that.
@ Aisle424:
I couldn’t read too much of it. It was like that language virus in that Sam Delany book, Babel-17, except instead of a murderer, it makes you randomly spout stupid fuck face horsecum.
GBTS wrote:
I don’t think he’d get much past the headline if he did find his way here.
@ Aisle424:
Maybe he’d be like, “Natalie Wood, I liked her in Star Wars.” I mean, baseball players can be hit or miss in the brains department.
This is sad. http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/39679/otl-jim-mcmahons-memory-loss
josh wrote:
josh wrote:
Ricketts seems to be bending the truth a bit as he continues to try to wrangle public funding for stadium renovations.
Filled out your playing time survey. Hopefully my lack of knowledge doesn’t skew the results too bad…
@ GBTS:
No way, dumb guys LOVE the prequels.
@ josh:
Almost by definition.
@ WaLi:
I had that same fear.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/shes_not_racist_either/
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
Human beings have an amazing capacity to justify their actions.
Like making Samardzija a starter.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/20/yu-darvish-has-an-achilles-heel/
I wonder if pitchers can blow out their arms by overexertion due to ego.
@ WaLi:
@ josh:
You guys both know the Cubs well enough so that’s not possible. There are nearly 60 completed surveys so it won’t change much even if someone entered ridiculous numbers intentionally. I know one person did and I’ll remove that one anyway. I think that person had 0 innings for Garza and Dempster and 200+ for Casey Coleman and someone else. 0 PA for some of the starters and 600+ for someone like Campana.
@ mb21:
This is Campana’s year!!
@ mb21:
He must really want that #1 pick.
I hadn’t read this one yet: http://www.27bslash6.com/timesheets.html
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
mb21 wrote:
Missing Missy is still my favorite.
(h/t Chicago Vince)
Miguel Cabrera —> out “a couple” weeks
@ Aisle424:
Chun is a plick.
I’d also point out I have some major qualms with the seeding in the Westeros Madness. (dying laughing)
http://www.theonion.com/articles/broncos-calling-teams-to-see-if-they-need-anyone-w,27673/
@ Rice Cube:
I’m pretty sure he’s just trolling.
@ josh:
So now all Asians are trolls? What’s your problem you racist piece of shit?
@ Aisle424:
Is cha ching racist? I’ve never even thought about it before, but I have no idea how it got started. Anyone know?
@ mb21:
No way. It’s just the sound a register makes.
One of you math or statistics geeks needs to help me out. Prior to the start of the season I want to publish percentile forecasts based on the average projection. I only care about wOBA and FIP. I know how to calculate 1 standard deviation of each of those, but can someone tell me what the standard deviation is of the 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles? I tried to calculate it for 80th percentile and may have fucked up, but I got 1.84. That makes sense. It’s obviously greater than 1 and less than 2. Anyone?
@ mb21:
It’s an onomatopoeia.
@ WaLi:
That’s what I’ve always thought, but I have no idea. I’ve never thought of it as a racist word, but I suppose I could see how some would. RC?
@ mb21:
I don’t think you use standard deviation to compute percentile. But I never really took stats. I can give you the definition for the derivative, if that helps. (dying laughing)
@ mb21:
Are you talking about Z-scores?
@ mb21:
It’s on old-style cash register noise. I rarely get offended by anything, although that ESPN headline snafu had me shaking my head.
mb21 wrote:
Fixed for racism.
@ WaLi:
Based on my limited understanding of Z-scores I think so. By limited understand I mean I know the definition.
Aisle424 wrote:
@ mb21:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
@ WaLi:
@ mb21:
I’m sure someone here knows more than me about it, but I think the Z tells you how many standard deviations you are away from the mean (in a normal distribution). So for you sample – x, mean of the data – u, and standard deviation – o, the z is (x – u) / o. You then convert this to percentile using excel, your calculator, or a chart..
http://www.regentsprep.org/Regents/math/algtrig/ATS7/ZChart.htm
So with 20th, 40th, 60th, 80th you would except z scores of about -.85, -.26, .26, and .85
@ mb21:
Are you using the binomial distribution to calculate standard deviation (the formula published in the book, I believe), or just the showing the spread among the various published projections?
Mish wrote:
If we’re talking solely about season 1 of the show and not the books, then Syrio Forel should win by a landslide. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a character do as much with three scenes as he did.
Syrio was great in the books too but he was amazing on the show.
@ GW:
I’m not sure if it was published in The Book or not (haven’t read it in awhile), but I know Tango has published the formula on his blog so yeah. I’d assume it’s the same formula.
I’m too lazy to calculate it right now, but I think 1 standard deviation of wOBA over 500 plate appearances is about 25 points. Somewhere around there. So there’s a 68% chance a .330 projected hitter would be somewhere between .305 and .355.
Can I do anything with that information to create percentiles? One of the things I was thinking about doing was taking a look at this team and seeing how many players would have to be 1 or 2 standard deviations above the mean projection for this team to contend. It’s not that important, but I thought it might be fun.
Not to be a dick, but doesn’t Excel have a built-in percentile function?
@ mb21:
i’m not sure how colin and all the rest do percentiles with their projections, but should be alright to say that +1SD = 84th percentile, +2SD = 98th….
@ Rice Cube:
I’m offended by your inability to be offended. You clearly don’t respect other people’s opinions.
@ Berselius:
While a far more important character overall, I’m shocked to see Ghost having lost to Jaime. I assumed no one likes Jaime if it’s just based on S1.
@ Mish:
Is Ghost the dog?
Or, you know, he HAS been.
@ GW:
If we’re using SD, what would you use to get the 20th and 40th percentiles?
@ josh:
That reminds me of a story…
There was once this guy, and he had a dog. It wasn’t just a regular dog. It was a short, fat, squat, ugly, little yellow dog. And, anyway, he was out walking this short, fat, squat, ugly, little yellow dog. And he decided he was thirsty. Figured he go into a bar. He did that. He did just that. Went into a bar. And sitting down the bar from him was this guy with a big, black, slick, mean looking dog-all toothy and gnarly and slick and mean looking. And the guy with the big, black, slick, mean looking dog shouted down the bar to the guy with the short, fat, squat, ugly, little yellow dog and said “Hey, that sure is an ugly little dog you got there, all short, fat, squat, ugly and yellow.” And the guy said “Yeah, well he may be ugly, but he sure can fight!” Yeah, that’s what he said. Anyway, so the guy said, “Oh yeah? Well, why don’t we take them out back, and we’ll have them fight it out. And I’ll put a five dollar bill on mine says he wins.” And the guy with the short, fat, squat, ugly little yellow dog agrees with the guy with the big, black, slick, mean-looking dog and said yeah, we’ll do that. And, so, anyway, they went out back, and they had it out. And the short, fat, squat, ugly, little yellow dog just whipped the shit out of this big, black, slick, mean-looking dog. After the fight, that short, fat, squat, ugly, little yellow dog was looking good, or as good as he ever looked, I guess. And the big, black, slick, mean-looking dog was reduced to a pile of fur. Anyway, the guy said, “Well, you were right. He sure could fight.” The guy with the short, fat, squat, ugly, little yellow dog said to the guy with the big, black, slick, mean-looking dog said, “Yeah, I was right. He sure could fight. Anyway, where’s my five dollars?” The guy gave him his five dollars and said, “Yeah, but I never seen a dog like that, anyway. I mean all short, fat, squat, ugly, little and yellow. What kind of dog is that? I’ve never seen one of them.” The guy said, “Well, he used to be an alligator before I cut off his tail and painted him yellow.”
@ WaLi:
The head shape would be a dead giveaway.
Kuo got released. I’m sad. He was so dominant 2 years ago.
That is Michael Vick’s favorite joke.
josh wrote:
hehehehe
Anyways you thought a dire wolf was a dog, so anything is possible!
@ mb21:
Would z-score not work?
@ WaLi:
I didn’t really get that whole plot line. There were some wolves and one was weird, and Jon Snow got that one. It was like GRRM started to do a metaphor, but then got hungry and ate a sandwich and wrote about that sandwhich instead.
I assume this is from the brief period when BCB started a video dating site:
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xaf03z_dating-montage_creation
Also, it’s fairly transparent that Tyrion is GRRM (or rather, GRRM’s wet dream of GRRM). If you’ve ever seen him in real life, you’ll know what I mean.
@ josh:
You pretty much nailed it. I think the whole series started off based on a short story he wrote about the wolves. Or maybe it was about the guy getting decapitated. I forget exactly. Also he has said that Tyrion is who he relates to the most.
josh wrote:
Um, no. All the Stark’s direwolves have importance in the stories, and Ghost may be the runt, but he is very much like his siblings. Ghost just gets the most screen time in Season 1.
@ WaLi:
I think it would. It’s just that I’d have to learn something new. (dying laughing)
I was going to vote today, but then I realized I didn’t like anybody and ended up not voting. Does that make me a bad American?
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/projections/ovs-projected-playing-time-for-the-2012-cubs.html
Here’s another one, sans Direwolves, and the divisions are more logically constructed.