I was reading the most recent article on Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight and he brought up the Keltner List. I had meant to do this for Sammy Sosa a few years, but completely forgot. So I'll do it now. Bill James came up with that back in 1985 and I'll let Wikipedia explain it:
The Keltner list is a systematic but non-numerical method for determining whether a baseball player is deserving of election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York. It makes use of an inventory of questions (mostly yes-or-no format) regarding the merit of players relative to their peers. Enshrinement in the Hall of Fame is one of the highest honors in sports, with only 234 players having been inducted as of 2011. Election to the Hall is also permanent. However, selection for the Hall is by election; no "cut-offs" or objective criteria exist (other than rules about how players become eligible for election). It can therefore be difficult for voters and fans alike to determine which former players are deserving of the honor.
The Keltner list comprises 15 questions designed to aid in the thought process. Each question is designed to be relatively easy to answer.
Before we move on to The Keltner list, Tangotiger has found that 55 WAR is basically the 50/50 line for reaching the Hall of Fame. Sammy Sosa has 59.7 career rWAR. If the BBWAA didn't care so much about steroids, Sosa would have a better chance than not of entering the Hall of Fame. He's by no means a slam dunk though. Onto the list.
1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
Yes. It may or may not have been correct, but between 1998 and 2001 it wasn't uncommon to hear Sosa referred to as the best player in the game. I wouldn't say it was particularly common, but that's not what the question is asking.
2. Was he the best player on his team?
Yes. Not only was he the best player on the Cubs, from 1995 to 2004 he had the 6th highest fWAR among all position players. RBI are relatively useless, but in 2001 Sosa had 160 RBI. The next best on the team was Ricky Gutierrez. He had 66. Matt Stairs was the only other player on that team to be within 100 RBI of Sosa. Stairs had 61 RBI.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
Yes. Barry Bonds was tops from 1995-2004 and Jim Edmonds was .1 fWAR ahead of Sosa, but no other RF was on the list. Larry Walker had 7 fewer fWAR than Sosa did.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
Pennant races when James defined this was probably reaching the NLCS. These days we consider reaching the postseason with the expanded playoffs. Sosa had an impact on 2 pennant races. In 2003 they nearly went to the World Series.
5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?
No. And yes. He was certainly good enough in his prime that he could have played past his prime, but when he reached that prime he fell off the cliff. This is a No.
6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
No. He's not even the best player in Cubs history who is not in the Hall of Fame.
7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
Yes. Below are the most similar batters to Sosa according to B-Ref:
- Jim Thome (865)
- Mike Schmidt (858) *
- Reggie Jackson (841) *
- Ken Griffey (830)
- Harmon Killebrew (822) *
- Eddie Mathews (822) *
- Mickey Mantle (821) *
- Willie Stargell (820) *
- Gary Sheffield (814)
- Willie McCovey (807) *
* – Signifies Hall of Famer
Jim Thome and Ken Griffey, Jr. will be in the Hall of Fame as soon as they are eligible. Sheffield has 63.3 career rWAR, but probably won't get in due to steroid suspicion. 9 out 10. Yes, most similar players are in the Hall of Fame.
8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
Yes. He has over 600 home runs. He hit more than 60 home runs in 3 different seasons. For a more detailed look, see after question 15.
9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
He more than likely took steroids and some believe that makes a player significantly better. He was also hit in the head by 95 mph fastball that cracked his helmet leading to him falling off the cliff we talked about earlier. There MAY be evidence to suggest he was worse than his statistics.
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
No. Larry Walker has just over 67 rWAR and Dwight Evans had a couple more than Sosa.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
7 times he finished in the top 10 in MVP voting. He won it in 1998 and finished 2nd in 2001.
12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?
He made the All-Star team 7 times and he had 8 All-Star type seasons. Thome, his best comparable, made the AS team 5 times. Schmidt, 2nd on the list of comparables, made it 12 times. Jackson and Jr. made it 14 and 13 times respectively. Killebrew made it 11 times. So Sosa played in fewer than most of his comparable players. I'm just not sure if those who reached the all-star team 8 times have gone onto the Hall of Fame. I'm guessing it's borderline at best.
13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
Obviously not, though that's not fault of his own. However, the HoF cares about postseason appearances. That simple.
14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
I'm not so sure that Sosa and Mark McGuire "saved" baseball as has often been said, but many people believe it. He, along with other sluggers did help to change it. He also had a huge impact among young Dominicans. By and large, though, Sosa's impact on history was minimal at best.
15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
No. I don't think we need to go over this again.
All the questions are subjective, the first 10 call for numerical comparisons. The 7th and 8th question often use Bill James similarity scores (I used Baseball Reference's) and his Hall of Fame Standards Test. Let's do that for question 8. Here's the test:
- One point for each 150 hits above 1500, limit 10.
- One point for each .005 of batting average above .275, limit 9
- One point for batting over .300
- One point for each 100 runs over 900, limit 8.
- One point for scoring more than .500 runs per game.
- One point for scoring more than .644 runs per game.
- One point for each 100 rbi's over 800, limit 8.
- One point for driving in more than .500 runs per game.
- One point for driving in more than .600 runs per game.
- One point for each .025 of slugging percentage above .300, limit 10
- One point for each .010 of on-base percentage above .300, limit 10
- One point for each 200 home runs.
- One point if home runs are more than 10% of hits.
- One point if home runs are more than 20% of hits.
- One point for each 200 extra base hits over 300, limit 5.
- One point for each 200 walks over 300, limit 5.
- One point for each 100 stolen bases, limit 5.
- James's version: Defensive value: 20 points for catcher, 16 – shortstop, 14 – second base, 13 – third base, 12 – center fielder, 6 – right fielder, 3 – left fielder, 1 – first baseman, 0 – designated hitter
He gets 6 points for having 908 hits more than 1500.
He gets 0 points for a career batting average of .273.
0 points for batting average over .300.
6 points (I'm rounding) for 575 runs more than 900.
1 point for scoring more than .5 runs per game
0 points for scoring more than .644 runs per game
8 points for 867 RBI more than 800
1 point for driving in more than .5 runs per game
1 points for driving in more than .6 runs per game
9 points for slugging .534
4 points for .344 OBP
3 points for 609 home runs
1 point for home runs being more than 10% of his hits
1 point for home runs being more than 20% of his hits
3 ponits for his extra base hits
3 points for walks over 300
2 points for stolen bases
6 points for playing right field
Total: 55 points
The aveage Hall of Famer has 50 points in this test so getting back to the answer to question 8, yes, his stats meet the standards.
Conclusion: Sosa has nearly 60 rWAR and nearly 65 fWAR. Based on that alone he's a solid candidate, but The Keltner List is more subjective. He passes the Hall of Fame Standards Test and makes other convincing argument for being in the HoF. 500 home runs used to be a guarantee, but with the steroid era, that's not so true anymore. Even if the BBWAA ignored steroids, hitting 500 home runs has become less impressive. 500 is probably more like 550 today and Sosa passes that. He's not had tremendous impact on the game and he did uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the HoF instructs its voters to consider. Like the WAR figures, The Keltner Test reveals that he's a solid candidate, but not a lock. He's far from a lock actually. Some players who would have similar results on this test would be in and others would not be in. Some players with the WAR figure that Sosa has are in and others aren't.
Comments
Nice: http://sabr.org/research/baseball-analyst-archives
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]At $10 million I’d be thrilled.[/quote]
I just hope that 424 spreads that money around to me, you, and AC
BerseliusQuote Reply
WARP splits the difference with 62.2.
ACTQuote Reply
I don’t think he gets in. Hawk barely got in, and it took Sandburg vouching for him.
binkyQuote Reply
Dave Cameron’s plan for the M’s has gained a considerable amount of infamy: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/daves_2012_off-season_mariners_plan_part_1/
ACTQuote Reply
Sosa is better than Dawson, I think, mainly because Hawk swung at everything.
ACTQuote Reply
I think if anything you can say Sammy’s major impact was getting fans even more interested in the Cubs, perhaps after a slightly lull. But it’s hard to make that argument considering the Cubs were already a popular team nationwide, probably more in thanks to WGN than anything.
binkyQuote Reply
Dawson is a 50/50 player. He had right around 55 WAR. The one MVP season he was actually worse than Bob Brenly. I also don’t think Sosa gets in right away, but I don’t think it’s because he doesn’t fit. I think he’s kept out only because of steroids and I hate that. He will eventually be in the HoF. In 25, 30 or 50 years the people deciding these things will have a completely different view of the players in the steroid era. It will just be another era. In all likelihood they’ll look back and laugh at us for acting as many of us have.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Sosa is better than Dawson, I think, mainly because Hawk swung at everything.[/quote]Dawson was a better defender, I would argue, and more upheld the honor of the game etc. criteria. Had just as much luck in the postseason though. To me, they’re both borderline. Frankly, I’m surprised Dawson got in. Maybe I’m just a self-hating Cub fan. For that matter, I was surprised Sandberg got in.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Dawson is a 50/50 player. He had right around 55 WAR. The one MVP season he was actually worse than Bob Brenly. I also don’t think Sosa gets in right away, but I don’t think it’s because he doesn’t fit. I think he’s kept out only because of steroids and I hate that. He will eventually be in the HoF. In 25, 30 or 50 years the people deciding these things will have a completely different view of the players in the steroid era. It will just be another era. In all likelihood they’ll look back and laugh at us for acting as many of us have.[/quote]I guess I remember Sammy having more national attention than Sandberg and Dawson. Maybe in retrospect the talk was just talk, but at the time, a lot of people were saying that Sosa/MacGwire were saving baseball. That was at least the storyline they were billing, and that’s what got written down, and so that may be what people remember.
binkyQuote Reply
Sosa’s defensive numbers were very good in his prime: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/best_worst_wowy_since_1993_through_age_34/
Of course, Dawson played center field until his knees gave out, so he was likely a better defender when he was young.
ACTQuote Reply
Er… Not?
/B’s phone’s keyboard’d
fang2415Quote Reply
I don’t think he makes it now, but if steroids hadn’t come up, the 600 HR probably puts him in. At the least the Cubs should stop giving his number away to, say, Tyler Colvin.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I don’t think he makes it now, but if steroids hadn’t come up, the 600 HR probably puts him in. At the least the Cubs should stop giving his number away to, say, Tyler Colvin.[/quote]There’s no doubt in my mind his number should be retired, and there’s no doubt in my mind either that he was one of the greatest Cubs to play. To me, his name just doesn’t quite have the magic ring of Griffey and Bonds, but like I said, I’m probably biased, probably because i only saw the best plays Griffey and Bonds made.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]There’s no doubt in my mind his number should be retired, and there’s no doubt in my mind either that he was one of the greatest Cubs to play. To me, his name just doesn’t quite have the magic ring of Griffey and Bonds, but like I said, I’m probably biased, probably because i only saw the best plays Griffey and Bonds made.[/quote]I had the privilege of watching Bonds play almost every day in the Bay Area. Thanks to WGN and ESPN, I also got to see Sammy Sosa play. Sammy Sosa is the reason I’m a Cubs fan. He’s in my Hall of Fame.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I had the privilege of watching Bonds play almost every day in the Bay Area. Thanks to WGN and ESPN, I also got to see Sammy Sosa play. Sammy Sosa is the reason I’m a Cubs fan. He’s in my Hall of Fame.[/quote]I go back to Sandberg and Dawson. I had posters of those guys in my bedroom through high school, that I bought at Wrigley Field. Maybe because I was a dumb kid, but I never thought of either one as hall of famers really. Probably because they never made it to the World Series. As a casual fan, that carries a lot of weight, even if statistically it isn’t an indicator of anything more than a run of good luck.
binkyQuote Reply
I started watching at the end of the 1991 season, and saw both Hawk and Ryno (especially the latter) as potential HOFers.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]There’s no doubt in my mind his number should be retired, and there’s no doubt in my mind either that he was one of the greatest Cubs to play. To me, his name just doesn’t quite have the magic ring of Griffey and Bonds, but like I said, I’m probably biased, probably because i only saw the best plays Griffey and Bonds made.[/quote]They’re going to run out of room on the flagpoles pretty soon if they’re not careful… Seriously, for some reason I feel like having your number retired should be an even bigger deal than making the HoF. I guess because there’s a finite number of numbers and, well, Cooperstown can expand. (dying laughing)
I think of Sosa a lot like I think of Michael Jackson. They both had spectacular talent and provided great joy in their prime; then they both got a little tiresome and a little weird, and did some unscrupulous stuff to try to keep their edge; then they both had bizarre emotional episodes that sounded dangerously loony but probably weren’t quite that bad; and then they both retired and dyed their skin white.
Loads of fun to watch old videos of those guys, but I’m not quite sure how to memorialize a career like that…
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]I don’t think he gets in. Hawk barely got in, and it took Sandburg vouching for him.[/quote]When I first read this, I thought of Harrelson. (dying laughing)
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I started watching at the end of the 1991 season, and saw both Hawk and Ryno (especially the latter) as potential HOFers.[/quote]I was 11, and probably judged them too harshly for not winning the Series.
binkyQuote Reply
I just liked the part where Sosa murdered a baseball and did his hop. It always made me smile. I don’t know if it deserves a flag on the foul pole, but memories are memories.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
So the Red Sox and Cubs got an extension on the Theo compensation thing. I guess Bud Selig didn’t want to deal with it just yet.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]When I first read this, I thought of Harrelson. (dying laughing)[/quote]I thought about that too. He has a cumulative 12 fWAR.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I just liked the part where Sosa murdered a baseball and did his hop. It always made me smile. I don’t know if it deserves a flag on the foul pole, but memories are memories.[/quote]Yeah, then toward the end, he started hopping all the time for anything that was in the air. Then it got really annoying.
I pretty much agree with Fang’s assessment. Lots of fun early on, then weird, then weirder, then you’re kind of glad they fade away.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]I guess because there’s a finite number of numbers[/quote]
^NOT A MATHEMATICIAN
binkyQuote Reply
Maybe one day a celebrity will ask for the infinity symbol on the Cubs jersey and get it (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I thought about that too. He has a cumulative 12 fWAR.[/quote](dying laughing)
He gon’.
fang2415Quote Reply
Not a Sosa fan by any means, but my only defense for him NOT taking steroids is that the guy never came off as intelligent, yet where so many others were caught, he was not. Whether he paid cash in DR and then paid to shut said dealer up, who knows, but he never had a pkg delivered to his house, the clubhouse, or paid w a check. So there’s my indecisive response
ChridQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Maybe one day a celebrity will ask for the infinity symbol on the Cubs jersey and get it (dying laughing)[/quote]If I were a baseball player, I would definitely ask for 0.3 or something.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Chrid]Not a Sosa fan by any means, but my only defense for him NOT taking steroids is that the guy never came off as intelligent, yet where so many others were caught, he was not. Whether he paid cash in DR and then paid to shut said dealer up, who knows, but he never had a pkg delivered to his house, the clubhouse, or paid w a check. So there’s my indecisive response[/quote]I think he was named in one report that came to light more recently. But he definitely was more discrete about it. Maybe he just had smarter friends.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]If I were a baseball player, I would definitely ask for 0.3 or something.[/quote]I think you should ask for pi. I’d love to see that posted on the manual scoreboard when you come up to bat. You are trying out, right?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Or was smart enough to say 100 miles away from Jose Canseco at all times.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think you should ask for pi. I’d love to see that posted on the manual scoreboard when you come up to bat. You are trying out, right?[/quote]Yeah, I played a little right field in little league, and I was a switcher hitter. So I think I’m in.
binkyQuote Reply
I’ll play for league minimum too, so that’s gotta up my value.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I’ll play for league minimum too, so that’s gotta up my value.[/quote]Still, think of all the bison dogs you can buy.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]^NOT A MATHEMATICIAN[/quote]You’re right. I should have said that while the set of possible numbers to retire is countably infinite, the cardinality of the continuous space at Cooperstown is uncountable. I simply think that bijections with the natural numbers deserve a more exclusive place in history than all the riff-raff that an aleph-one set would include.
(dying laughing)
fang2415Quote Reply
I wish they had the video of the ball Sosa hit that just kept bouncing down the street (I want to say Kenmore). Maybe I’m just not looking for the right clip.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]You’re right. I should have said that while the set of possible numbers to retire is countably infinite, the cardinality of the continuous space at Cooperstown is uncountable. I simply think that bijections with the natural numbers deserve a more exclusive place in history than all the riff-raff that an aleph-one set would include.
(dying laughing)[/quote]That’s more like it.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]That’s more like it.[/quote]/Zermelo-Fraenkel’d
fang2415Quote Reply
Homomorphisms or bust, I say.
binkyQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-five-average-est-position-players-of-2011/
Darwin Barney almost made the cut.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think you should ask for pi. I’d love to see that posted on the manual scoreboard when you come up to bat. You are trying out, right?[/quote]Yes, assigning irrational numbers to players would solve the number-retirement problem once and for all. Although unless you stuck to transformations of pi and e, they’d be tricky to print on jerseys.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Yes, assigning irrational numbers to players would solve the number-retirement problem once and for all. Although unless you stuck to transformations of pi and e, they’d be tricky to print on jerseys.[/quote]If a Cub wore “square root of two” would you say that he was radical?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Assistant General Manager Randy Bush is being kept on, he just doesn’t know his title has been changed. He’s now the Assistant to the General Manager. (dying laughing)
melissaQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]If a Cub wore “square root of two” would you say that he was radical?[/quote]I could swear that some of the blernsball players on the NNY Mets have irrational jersey numbers. There are a remarkable amount of set theory jokes on that show.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=melissa]Assistant General Manager Randy Bush is being kept on, he just doesn’t know his title has been changed. He’s now the Assistant to the General Manager. (dying laughing)[/quote]Is that title officially official?
10 minutes to free agent madness.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is that title officially official?
[/quote]
There’s a 50/50 chance.
melissaQuote Reply
I wonder if Theo and Jed called up Albert Pujols just to say “what’s up” and have a laugh about a contract that wouldn’t really be offered.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]I could swear that some of the blernsball players on the NNY Mets have irrational jersey numbers. There are a remarkable amount of set theory jokes on that show.[/quote]I think I get this game. The blerns are loaded, the count is three blerns and two anti-blerns, and the infield blern rule is in effect.
Except for the word “blern” that was complete gibberish.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I think I get this game. The blerns are loaded, the count is three blerns and two anti-blerns, and the infield blern rule is in effect.
Except for the word “blern” that was complete gibberish.[/quote]
Remember, fans. This exciting moment is brought to you by Month Old Franks. The hot dogs with experience.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]Remember, fans. This exciting moment is brought to you by Month Old Franks. The hot dogs with experience.[/quote]”Man I haven’t seen play this bad since the days of Bob Uecker! This is Bob Uecker.”
fang2415Quote Reply
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]
[/quote] (dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
Wow. Yellon will just say anything.
Mercurial OutfielderQuote Reply
You guys are forgetting that anything can happen in baseball. This could be the year where the Cubs go 162-0. It could go either way. That’s the beauty of short hops.
BerseliusQuote Reply
I vote that Fozzie Bear facepalm be enshrined in the pantheon of facepalms.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
BTW, did anyone respond to Yellon?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I vote that Fozzie Bear facepalm be enshrined in the pantheon of facepalms.[/quote]
That’s not that great of a facepalm
BerseliusQuote Reply
In basketball – the game played with an orange, leathery, orange ball with seams – where 16 out of 30 teams; that is, 53%, make the playoffs, you should not bother rooting–i.e., cheering–for your favorite team if they, your team, does not have a realistic chance of finding themselves–your team–within that 53% at the start of the season, which starts at the end of October, which is, ironically, when baseball; the game played with a white and red ball that also has seams, ends, where 8 out 30 teams make the playoffs every year–which is a much smaller percentage, say, 26%–and you can definitely wait and see what happens every year before deciding to not cheer for that team.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]
That’s not that great of a facepalm[/quote]That’s just your opinion.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
HEARD THIS: Buster Olney says that the Cubs are inteviewing Pete Mackanin for the manager job
BerseliusQuote Reply
Mackanin is the bench coach for the Phillies and previously interim-managed the Pirates and Reds
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I vote that Fozzie Bear facepalm be enshrined in the pantheon of facepalms.[/quote]I prefer this one:
GBTSQuote Reply
F-bomb Fozzie is 50% funnier than regular Fozzie.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]F-bomb Fozzie is 5000000% less offensive than the Forest Gif.[/quote].
GBTSQuote Reply
Forestgif is art.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Forestgif is art.[/quote]
You know it when you see it.
/supreme court’d
26.2cubsfanQuote Reply
[quote name=Chrid]Not a Sosa fan by any means, but my only defense for him NOT taking steroids is that the guy never came off as intelligent, yet where so many others were caught, he was not. Whether he paid cash in DR and then paid to shut said dealer up, who knows, but he never had a pkg delivered to his house, the clubhouse, or paid w a check. So there’s my indecisive response[/quote]To be fair, there were probably a lot of players who used and didn’t get caught or even publicly suspected of using.
ACTQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Forestgif is art.[/quote]
Might need to make some changes to that soon…
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=26.2cubsfan]You know it when you see it.
/supreme court’d[/quote]I’ll bite, then. What the hell is forestgif?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]To be fair, there were probably a lot of players who used and didn’t get caught or even publicly suspected of using.[/quote]According to Jose, or possible his evil twin Ozzie, 85% of players were using.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I’ll bite, then. What the hell is forestgif?[/quote]Boy, did you ask for it…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]HEARD THIS: Buster Olney says that the Cubs are inteviewing Pete Mackanin for the manager job[/quote]Do not want.
mb21Quote Reply
I’d much rather have Dale Sveum.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Boy, did you ask for it…[/quote]
I don’t even know where the latest version is anymore.
Dr. Aneus TaintQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]I don’t even know where the latest version is anymore.[/quote]’Tis a sad day…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]’Tis a sad day…[/quote]Oh, I think I just remembered now. Al is featured prominently?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Dr. Aneus Taint]I don’t even know where the latest version is anymore.[/quote]All I could find is this:
Incompetent Forestgif CuratorQuote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mike-quade-fired-dale-sveum-may-join-dream-team/
BerseliusQuote Reply
Sums it up nicely, for me:
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I’ll bite, then. What the hell is forestgif?[/quote][quote name=josh]Oh, I think I just remembered now. Al is featured prominently?[/quote]If you’ve seen it, you’d remember. The Forest Gif is like riding a bike. A bike that’s masturbating.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]If you’ve seen it, you’d remember. The Forest Gif is like riding a bike. A bike that’s masturbating.[/quote]I remember now, I didn’t know there was a name for it.
binkyQuote Reply
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
binkyQuote Reply
http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/11/03/113-santo-has-another-chance-at-hof/
Yay! I hope Tiant makes it, too.
ACTQuote Reply
That’s as accurate of a summary of Brenly’s color work that I’ve ever seen.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]http://muskat.mlblogs.com/2011/11/03/113-santo-has-another-chance-at-hof/
Yay! I hope Tiant makes it, too.[/quote]
And Charlie O. No one else like him.
BerseliusQuote Reply
Boyer probably deserves to be in the Hall, too.
ACTQuote Reply
I hope Santo gets in, and the entire ceremony is one big collective pile of shit dumped on the BBWAA.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mike-quade-fired-dale-sveum-may-join-dream-team/[/quote]
Who is this Bradley Woodrum guy? He seems to have his head on straight.
I love the:
Reasons I don’t want Sandberg as the Cubs manager:
1. He’d be bigger than a manager should be – he’s a rock star, the fans love him, and that gives him too much opportunity to go his own way and not the Cubs Way (TM)
2. He hasn’t done it before. I get that experience isn’t everything, and he was successful as a player and all. But not all successful players make successful managers. And all things being equal, I’d rather have someone who has coached in the majors than someone who hasn’t. Again, the Cubs didn’t hire someone inexperienced to run the team, why should they hire someone inexperienced to manage it. Certainty > uncertainty…
26.2cubsfanQuote Reply
Alvin is making a strong case to be Theo’s chief knob polisher today.
Incompetent Forestgif CuratorQuote Reply
I found Brad’s argument on 1-run records rather silly. In 2010, under Quade, the Cubs went 17-11 in non-1-run games. Had they gone 5-4 or 4-5 in 1-run games, they still would have had an excellent record.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=26.2cubsfan]Reasons I don’t want Sandberg as the Cubs manager:
1. He’d be bigger than a manager should be – he’s a rock star, the fans love him, and that gives him too much opportunity to go his own way and not the Cubs Way (TM)
2. He hasn’t done it before. I get that experience isn’t everything, and he was successful as a player and all. But not all successful players make successful managers. And all things being equal, I’d rather have someone who has coached in the majors than someone who hasn’t. Again, the Cubs didn’t hire someone inexperienced to run the team, why should they hire someone inexperienced to manage it. Certainty > uncertainty…[/quote]I wonder if the new regime’s rejection of Sandberg is partly their way of distancing itself from tradition and sentimentality.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I found Brad’s argument on 1-run records rather silly. In 2010, under Quade, the Cubs went 17-11 in non-1-run games. Had they gone 5-4 or 4-5 in 1-run games, they still would have had an excellent record.[/quote]
Yeah, it’s not a good analysis unless he addresses sample size.
26.2cubsfanQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I found Brad’s argument on 1-run records rather silly. In 2010, under Quade, the Cubs went 17-11 in non-1-run games. Had they gone 5-4 or 4-5 in 1-run games, they still would have had an excellent record.[/quote]The truth is Hendry just caught a bad case of QUADE FEVER!
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]The truth is Hendry just caught a bad case of QUADE FEVER![/quote]And the only PRESCRIPTION
is MORE NICKNAMES
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]And the only PRESCRIPTION
is MORE NICKNAMES[/quote]Explore the etymological space…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
This is satire, right? http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/boopstats/Jimmy-Rollins-vs-Wilson-Valdez1102.html
ACTQuote Reply
They should have also brought up Valdez’ amazing relief-pitching ability. That narrows the gap between him and Rollins even further.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]This is satire, right? http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/boopstats/Jimmy-Rollins-vs-Wilson-Valdez1102.html%5B/quote%5DInteresting. Neither guy is “gritty”…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Comments are helpful in pointing out that Valdez has a better BA w/ RISP. Argument over.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Comments are helpful in pointing out that Valdez has a better BA w/ RISP. Argument over.[/quote]What was the comparison? 23/100 or something for Rollins and 1/2 for Valdez? I made those up but you get what I mean.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Comments are helpful in pointing out that Valdez has a better BA w/ RISP. Argument over.[/quote]Shitty defense, strikes out a lot, can’t take a walk, worth 0 fWAR v. 3.8 fWAR. Otherwise, same guy.
binkyQuote Reply
It’s almost as though batting average and number of errors don’t tell the whole story.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]It’s almost as though batting average and number of errors don’t tell the whole story.[/quote]That’s just your opinion.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Shitty defense, strikes out a lot, can’t take a walk, worth 0 fWAR v. 3.8 fWAR. Otherwise, same guy.[/quote]One guy is clearly much better than the other, but other than that, there’s little difference.
ACTQuote Reply
So I just locked out everyone at work (including myself and IT) from being able to edit this Sharepoint site I’ve been working on, so I got that going for me.
WaLiQuote Reply
I think it has to be satire. Unless Chicago media stupidity is outsourced.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I liked this one:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/breaking-down-stolen-base-break-even-points/
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Billy Corgan ———> wants to smash Theo’s pumpkin over Ryno
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-corgan-ryno-deserved-an-interview-with-epstein-20111103,0,6969115.story
Smokestack LightningQuote Reply
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Billy Corgan ———> wants to smash Theo’s pumpkin over Ryno
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-corgan-ryno-deserved-an-interview-with-epstein-20111103,0,6969115.story%5B/quote%5DBilly Corgan can go fuck himself. Vapor trail believing idiot.
binkyQuote Reply
I’m sure they’ll be so blown away by his “adopted Chicagoan” argument that they’ll reverse their policy and throw their vision out the window.
binkyQuote Reply
I’m sorry, my wife is always telling me to stop getting worked up about Billy Corgan.
binkyQuote Reply
Why don’t you tell us how you really feel
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I’m sure they’ll be so blown away by his “adopted Chicagoan” argument that they’ll reverse their policy and throw their vision out the window.[/quote]You know who else deserved an interview? Oprah.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]You know who else deserved an interview? Oprah.[/quote]Probably should at least send Urlacher a nice letter telling him why he’s not being considered. Otherwise, they’re just being childish.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I liked this one:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/breaking-down-stolen-base-break-even-points/%5B/quote%5DI'd love to see more steal attempts at home. I remember when Anthony Campana was on 3rd late this season while the Cubs go from zero outs to two, and it seemed like the obvious play. Let him try. Instead, they strand him.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I’d love to see more steal attempts at home. I remember when Anthony Campana was on 3rd late this season while the Cubs go from zero outs to two, and it seemed like the obvious play. Let him try. Instead, they strand him.[/quote]They should teach him how to bunt better so he can get to first more often. He’s usually on 3B shortly afterwards anyway, and then you’d get plenty of opportunities to put this to the test. I think Campana could successfully steal home about 35% of the time. He’d be a Cubs legend.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I found Brad’s argument on 1-run records rather silly. In 2010, under Quade, the Cubs went 17-11 in non-1-run games. Had they gone 5-4 or 4-5 in 1-run games, they still would have had an excellent record.[/quote]Not to mention that record in one-run games includes a whole lot of luck.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/can-the-giants-improve-by-trading-tim-linecum/
It’s too bad the Cubs farm is so sucky and they’re not close to contention or else I’d totally jump at this. I don’t think the Giants are thinking about a Lincecum trade though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Not to mention that record in one-run games includes a whole lot of luck.[/quote]I think that was his point. He was arguing that the Cubs were lucky under Quade because of the 1-run wins.
ACTQuote Reply
What’s with Billy Corgan’s Mike Quade costume?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]
What’s with Billy Corgan’s Mike Quade costume?[/quote]All I see is a Ryne Sandberg next to a giant douche bag about to smash into a microphone. Some kind of weird modern art, I guess.
binkyQuote Reply
Actually, I think all he needs is a Bond villain gray suit and a cat. Instant Dr. Evil. It’s brilliant!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Smokestack Lightning]Billy Corgan ———> wants to smash Theo’s pumpkin over Ryno
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-corgan-ryno-deserved-an-interview-with-epstein-20111103,0,6969115.story%5B/quote%5DWho. Gives. A. Fly. Ing. Fuck. What. Billy. Fucking. Corgan. Thinks.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I think that was his point. He was arguing that the Cubs were lucky under Quade because of the 1-run wins.[/quote]Yeah, they were lucky under Quade in 2010 and I’m guessing unlucky in 2011. A much better argument is that the Cubs Pythag record under Quade was much worse than the actual record.
I don’t really care though. Hendry hired him. Quade wasn’t bad. He wasn’t great. He was an MLB manager. He was probably as good and as bad as the next Cubs manager.
mb21Quote Reply
What’s with all the hate? All he is saying is he’d be pissed if he was Ryno. Who wouldn’t be? Billy doesn’t hate Theo because of it. Everyone can see why Ryno wasn’t interviewed (don’t want to have to fire him, deal with a mega star, etc) but it still sucks.
Just because someone is upset about the fact that Ryno isn’t going to manage doesn’t mean they are upset with the Superfriends.
WaLiQuote Reply
Off topic-ish, but NotGraphs has an article up about a “creative writing award.” When you click it, it says “Nothing found” (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I guess in the end who gives a shit who is manager. As long as they do what the Superfriends say to do, then we’ll gain 1 or 2 more wins than what a shitty manager would do.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]What’s with all the hate? All he is saying is he’d be pissed if he was Ryno. Who wouldn’t be? Billy doesn’t hate Theo because of it. Everyone can see why Ryno wasn’t interviewed (don’t want to have to fire him, deal with a mega star, etc) but it still sucks.
Just because someone is upset about the fact that Ryno isn’t going to manage doesn’t mean they are upset with the Superfriends.[/quote]Fair enough. I should add I didn’t read the article so I don’t know. that being said, the Tribune really should stop talking about what musicians think the team should do. It’s like interviewing actors about what they like or don’t like about various presidents. People don’t publish Greg Maddux’s thoughts on brain surgery or architecture. I’ve just never understood why these same people publish musicians and actors thoughts on something they shouldn’t be commenting on. At least not in a major newspaper anyway.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Off topic-ish, but NotGraphs has an article up about a “creative writing award.” When you click it, it says “Nothing found” (dying laughing)[/quote]That is creative.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]What’s with all the hate? All he is saying is he’d be pissed if he was Ryno. Who wouldn’t be? Billy doesn’t hate Theo because of it. Everyone can see why Ryno wasn’t interviewed (don’t want to have to fire him, deal with a mega star, etc) but it still sucks.
Just because someone is upset about the fact that Ryno isn’t going to manage doesn’t mean they are upset with the Superfriends.[/quote]I hated Billy Corgan before he offered his idiot assessment of the Ryne Sandberg situation. I’ll hate him tomorrow if he completely reverses his opinion and personally apologizes.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Fair enough. I should add I didn’t read the article so I don’t know. that being said, the Tribune really should stop talking about what musicians think the team should do. It’s like interviewing actors about what they like or don’t like about various presidents. People don’t publish Greg Maddux’s thoughts on brain surgery or architecture. I’ve just never understood why these same people publish musicians and actors thoughts on something they shouldn’t be commenting on. At least not in a major newspaper anyway.[/quote]When Willy has built a team that are perennial contenders, then I’ll start caring who he thinks should be interviewed for a job he knows nothing about.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Fair enough. I should add I didn’t read the article so I don’t know. that being said, the Tribune really should stop talking about what musicians think the team should do. It’s like interviewing actors about what they like or don’t like about various presidents. People don’t publish Greg Maddux’s thoughts on brain surgery or architecture. I’ve just never understood why these same people publish musicians and actors thoughts on something they shouldn’t be commenting on. At least not in a major newspaper anyway.[/quote]
Yeah I agree with that. Seems that celebrities get asked a lot of stupid shit (not just in Chicago) and then whatever is said gets published or is shown on the news.
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Fair enough. I should add I didn’t read the article so I don’t know. that being said, the Tribune really should stop talking about what musicians think the team should do. It’s like interviewing actors about what they like or don’t like about various presidents. People don’t publish Greg Maddux’s thoughts on brain surgery or architecture. I’ve just never understood why these same people publish musicians and actors thoughts on something they shouldn’t be commenting on. At least not in a major newspaper anyway.[/quote]Reminds me of this Team America quote:
Janeane Garofolo: As actors, it is our responsibility to read the newspapers, and then say what we read on television like it’s our own opinion.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I hated Billy Corgan before he offered his idiot assessment of the Ryne Sandberg situation. I’ll hate him tomorrow if he completely reverses his opinion and personally apologizes.[/quote](dying laughing) so much hate
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]Yeah I agree with that. Seems that celebrities get asked a lot of stupid shit (not just in Chicago) and then whatever is said gets published or is shown on the news.[/quote]Yeah, so my complaint should probably be directed at the people who actually care what Billy Corgan thinks about the Cubs. I don’t even know why he’d be asked.
mb21Quote Reply
Someone reads OVBlog.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Reminds me of this Team America quote:
Janeane Garofolo: As actors, it is our responsibility to read the newspapers, and then say what we read on television like it’s our own opinion.[/quote](dying laughing) I’ve come to the conclusion that many (most?) of the people in Hollywood are plain fucking nuts. They’re so far removed from reality that I can’t think of a group of people that should be taken less seriously. I don’t like guns, but if one of them talks about gun control, I’m inclined to go buy a garage full of assault weapons. Nobody on this planet has a higher ego than those people. Take every athlete on earth, add their ego up and it’s less than the most unknown actor ever.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=WaLi](dying laughing) so much hate
[/quote]I’m allowed to hate people for being bigoted, stupid assholes. That’s why dad fought in Vietnam, god damn it.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]So I just locked out everyone at work (including myself and IT) from being able to edit this Sharepoint site I’ve been working on, so I got that going for me.[/quote]
Nice! How did you do that? (So I don’t accidentally do it myself.)
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Nice! How did you do that? (So I don’t accidentally do it myself.)[/quote]People and Groups ==> Site Permissions ==> Click the check box that selects everyone ==> Settings ==> Edit Permissions Levels (ignore warning) ==> Change to Read Only
I figured that there is no way the admin would be able to block himself out (dying laughing)
WaLiQuote Reply
http://www.grindtv.com/outdoor/blog/30915/lunging+humpback+whale+nearly+swallows+up+surfer+kayaker/
Near where the wife’s family lives.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]People and Groups ==> Site Permissions ==> Click the check box that selects everyone ==> Settings ==> Edit Permissions Levels (ignore warning) ==> Change to Read Only
I figured that there is no way the admin would be able to block himself out (dying laughing)[/quote]
That would do it. (dying laughing)
Let me know if you figure a way around it. I can imagine someone on my campus will figure out how to do that accidentally.
Aisle424Quote Reply
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/boopstats/Jimmy-Rollins-vs-Wilson-Valdez1102.html
Theo is talking to Tito.
ACTQuote Reply
Damn, wrong link. Here it is: http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7185139/chicago-cubs-theo-epstein-terry-francona-top-skipper-option
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://www.grindtv.com/outdoor/blog/30915/lunging+humpback+whale+nearly+swallows+up+surfer+kayaker/
Near where the wife’s family lives.[/quote]Ninevah is really in the forefront of the news these days.
fang2415Quote Reply
.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Damn, wrong link. Here it is: http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/7185139/chicago-cubs-theo-epstein-terry-francona-top-skipper-option%5B/quote%5DI'd like that.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]http://www.grindtv.com/outdoor/blog/30915/lunging+humpback+whale+nearly+swallows+up+surfer+kayaker/
Near where the wife’s family lives.[/quote]I don’t think a humpback could swallow you, but it could inadvertently drown you pretty good.
binkyQuote Reply
Yet another lunch date that they can expense!
I wonder how that will be perceived. I’m sure Boston media will be talking about Theo and Francona being traitors? And if they don’t win within a couple years, the Chicago media will tear down Theo’s aura of invincibility.
I’m almost inclined to think that this potential hire isn’t realistic.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Did the Cubs ask for permission too?
mb21Quote Reply
!.
fang2415Quote Reply
When will the mad dash of signings begin? Do teams have to wait a couple weeks so they don’t seem too eager? Play a little hard to get?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]When will the mad dash of signings begin? Do teams have to wait a couple weeks so they don’t seem too eager? Play a little hard to get?[/quote]Hank White already signed with the D’Backs. They were made for each other.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yep: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/baseball/mlb/11/03/mike.maddux.cubs.red.sox/
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]That would do it. (dying laughing)
Let me know if you figure a way around it. I can imagine someone on my campus will figure out how to do that accidentally.[/quote]
Yeah I was trying to restrict writing access to everyone except me since it is supposed to be a “final copy” website. It’s my first time using sharepoint and I fucked it up pretty good (dying laughing). They fixed it somehow in corporate, not sure how. Probably something like this: http://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/cc262811(office.12).aspx
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Did the Cubs ask for permission too?[/quote][quote name=ESPN]Epstein also confirmed he would interview Pete Makannin, the Philadelphia Phillies bench coach, on Wednesday evening. He also has contacted Texas Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux for an interview.[/quote]
That’s a pretty remarkable article (or remarkable comments by Theo, anyway).
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Hank White already signed with the D’Backs. They were made for each other.[/quote]He’s no Koyie Hill. Actually, he’s a significantly better defender than Koyie.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]He’s no Koyie Hill. Actually, he’s a significantly better defender than Koyie.[/quote]You can even teach Hank White to bat left-handed to remove the only remaining reason to favor Koyie Hill.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]You can even teach Hank White to bat left-handed to remove the only remaining reason to favor Koyie Hill.[/quote]He’d probably be just as good at it as Koyie.
binkyQuote Reply
I wonder if Theo will try to sign Koyie Hill to a minor league contract and convert him into a reliever (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Heard this: Chicago Cubs are officially changing their team name to “Boston Red Sox of Chicago.”
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Heard this: Chicago Cubs are officially changing their team name to “Boston Red Sox of Chicago.”[/quote]That probably has a better ring to it than “Houston Astros of Chicago.”
Rice CubeQuote Reply
As long as they can steal the Marlins new logo I’d be fine. I’d love to see all the Cubs fans complaining for years about the logo.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]That’s a pretty remarkable article (or remarkable comments by Theo, anyway).[/quote]I still haven’t quite come to terms with the fact that the Cubs FO has progressive minded people in top positions. I keep waiting for them to sign Cuddyer to some ridiculous 4/48 contract and talk about his positional flexibility, power and results against national league teams.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Heard this: Chicago Cubs are officially changing their ballpark name to Wrigley Field at Fenway Park.”[/quote].
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21].[/quote]Sweet! Does this mean they’ll finally get a Jumbotron?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Heard this: Chicago Cubs are officially changing their team name to “Boston Red Sox of Chicago.”[/quote]ALL YOUR BOSTON ARE BELONG TO CUBS
fang2415Quote Reply
This graph is a pretty good lesson on how true talent looks over increasing sample size:
fang2415Quote Reply
Excellent point, fang.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Excellent point, fang.[/quote]About how Boston belongs to Cubs? Yeah, thanks, I thought so too.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]Excellent point, fang.[/quote]Srs though, I once made some graphs of dice results over 1000 rolls and they basically looked like that, except that the hump at the beginning did something different every time.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=Woodrum]From what we can tell, though, Mike Quade managed on feeling, gut, old school statistics, and nicknamification. Only one of those processes — the time-honored tradition of adding a y to every one-syllable name — has a chance of remaining in the Theo Era.[/quote]do not want
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]This graph is a pretty good lesson on how true talent looks over increasing sample size:
[/quote]From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers :
fang2415Quote Reply
I wonder if you can do the same for guys with even larger samples, like Earl Weaver or TLR or Joe Torre.
I mean, of course you can…I meant I wonder what those would look like. Probably they stabilize somewhere between .520 and .550 or so.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
New favorite site: http://comingupmilhouse.com/
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]This graph is a pretty good lesson on how true talent looks over increasing sample size:
[/quote]Of course, it tells us more about the Cubs than about Quade.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Of course, it tells us more about the Cubs than about Quade.[/quote]Every Quade nickname drop results in a decrease of 0.1 WAR.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]do not want[/quote]I think it’s a bit naive to expect Theo to get a sabermetric manager. No team has managed that feat so far, and he’s not looking for some young maverick, but someone with experience.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Of course, it tells us more about the Cubs than about Quade.[/quote]Yeah, if that’s the only way to judge a manager, then leave him in. He clearly had an, at best, average team. I’m guessing part of the new manager’s job is going to be preaching the good word of the new Cubs way, and trying to keep the MLB philosophy in-line with what the kids will be learning in the minors. Maybe they just didn’t like that he leaked the Zambrano story.
binkyQuote Reply
I’m glad to see the doctors said it wasn’t cancer, MB.
http://shine.yahoo.com/channel/sex/the-weirdest-thing-found-in-a-mans-testicles-dont-act-like-you-dont-want-to-know-2610186
Aisle424Quote Reply
I think Theo et al. can certainly do better than Quade, but the improvement will be incremental.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Yeah, if that’s the only way to judge a manager, then leave him in. He clearly had an, at best, average team. I’m guessing part of the new manager’s job is going to be preaching the good word of the new Cubs way, and trying to keep the MLB philosophy in-line with what the kids will be learning in the minors. Maybe they just didn’t like that he leaked the Zambrano story.[/quote]And he might not be fully on board with whatever the Cubs Way is seeing as it probably flies in the face of what he has known his whole life in baseball.
Aisle424Quote Reply
It would not surprise me in the least to see Dave Martinez be the choice since he’s worked for a sabermetric team and spent some time in Chicago dealing with the Cubs’ aura of loserdom. So he knows a bit about where this team is (since it hasn’t really changed since he left) and where it needs to be in the future. So he can help draw the map to get them there.
I’d almost want Sandberg to get the Cardinals job if Martinez gets the Cubs job. That rivalry would be nuts.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I think it’s a bit naive to expect Theo to get a sabermetric manager. No team has managed that feat so far, and he’s not looking for some young maverick, but someone with experience.[/quote]I didn’t mean anything about a sabermetric guy. I just want a manager who wouldn’t call you Acey.
fang2415Quote Reply
Yeah, I was referring to the Woodrum quote in your post, but it wasn’t obvious.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Of course, it tells us more about the Cubs than about Quade.[/quote]Yeah, I didn’t mean true talent of Q rather than the team. It’s just a graph of what a fairly constant underlying probability (the team’s chance of winning) looks as you increase the sample. It’s pretty much the same as in the dice roll graph, and for that you know exactly what the probability is from the beginning.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]I didn’t mean anything about a sabermetric guy. I just want a manager who wouldn’t call you Acey.[/quote]That’s a real good point, fangy. We want Cassy, Barney, and Princey to feel respected.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]It would not surprise me in the least to see Dave Martinez be the choice since he’s worked for a sabermetric team and spent some time in Chicago dealing with the Cubs’ aura of loserdom. So he knows a bit about where this team is (since it hasn’t really changed since he left) and where it needs to be in the future. So he can help draw the map to get them there.
I’d almost want Sandberg to get the Cardinals job if Martinez gets the Cubs job. That rivalry would be nuts.[/quote]Was Martinez one of the guys who was doing Ryno’s wife?
fang2415Quote Reply
Looking at Terry Francona’s past teams. I loved in 2011 how he got the most offense from the top 5 spots in the lineup. However, in the past, he’s had a tendency to place weak (sometimes very weak) hitters in the leadoff spot. Last year, he lucked out with Ellsbury. One thing I will say about Quade is that he liked leadoff hitters who get on base (.367 OBP this year, easily the highest of any position).
ACTQuote Reply
I realize now that I alternately refer to 2011 as “this year” and “last year.”
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I think it’s a bit naive to expect Theo to get a sabermetric manager. No team has managed that feat so far, and he’s not looking for some young maverick, but someone with experience.[/quote]Well, I do think there is already some, ahem, non-random variance in how well managers use numbers. I think Brad said in a different piece that Joe Maddon actually keeps The Book with him in the dugout.
With the field expanded to non-manager coaches, I don’t think it’s crazy to hope for a manager with a fair amount of statistical sophistication. Relatively speaking anyway.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Looking at Terry Francona’s past teams. I loved in 2011 how he got the most offense from the top 5 spots in the lineup. However, in the past, he’s had a tendency to place weak (sometimes very weak) hitters in the leadoff spot. Last year, he lucked out with Ellsbury. One thing I will say about Quade is that he liked leadoff hitters who get on base (.367 OBP this year, easily the highest of any position).[/quote]I’m thinking OBP is going to tank this year, but I’m probably being pessimistic. That’ll be a big challenge, finding guys who can get on and getting a manager who can put them in the spots to be successful.
binkyQuote Reply
Sam Fuld: player-manager.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Er, next year.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]Looking at Terry Francona’s past teams. I loved in 2011 how he got the most offense from the top 5 spots in the lineup. However, in the past, he’s had a tendency to place weak (sometimes very weak) hitters in the leadoff spot. Last year, he lucked out with Ellsbury. One thing I will say about Quade is that he liked leadoff hitters who get on base (.367 OBP this year, easily the highest of any position).[/quote]I’m not actually convinced that Quade’s tactics, lineups, pitcher use, etc., were all that bad.
I think a bigger issue is that, well, he was just kind of a wimp. I still remember an ump he was yelling at just saying “Calm down. Calm down. Calm down.” in a mom-like way. (dying laughing) I think it’s that kind of thing that led to some of the players not really taking him seriously.
Having a strong link to the old regime in the dugout is dangerous no matter what, but add that in and I think they had to let him go even if they liked his tactics.
All that said, I think the opportunity to get an even better tactician is also pretty good.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Sam Fuld: player-manager.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I wonder if Fuld would be really hard on himself as a P/M or too easy on himself. Like would he realize he strikes out too often and is at best a defensive replacement, or would he believe his own hype?[/quote]What would happen when he decides to send himself back to triple-A for a while to work on his hitting? (dying laughing)
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]What would happen when he decides to send himself back to triple-A for a while to work on his hitting? (dying laughing)[/quote]I could see a Gollum/Smeagol situation developing.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Was Martinez one of the guys who was doing Ryno’s wife?[/quote]That’s the rumor. Palmeiro was the other one that I know of. There may have been more.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]That’s the rumor. Palmeiro was the other one that I know of. There may have been more.[/quote]Was his wife a porn star? I hear a lot of people around here have slept with those.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]That’s the rumor. Palmeiro was the other one that I know of. There may have been more.[/quote]I heard a rumor that Mark Grace was a bit of a blowhard. I don’t know if that has anything to do with Mrs. Sandberg, however.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I heard a rumor that Mark Grace was a bit of a blowhard. I don’t know if that has anything to do with Mrs. Sandberg, however.[/quote](dying laughing)
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]That’s the rumor. Palmeiro was the other one that I know of. There may have been more.[/quote]So when the Sox go to Texas, the Rangers could show video of Ryan beating up Ventura; and when the Cards come to Chicago, the Cubs can show video of Martinez having sex with Sandberg’s wife.
/Jumbotron’d
fang2415Quote Reply
Via Bruce Miles:
This is going to be so different from the old regime. It’s like it isn’t even the same team anymore. I love it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
Gary Karton hates it.
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]I heard a rumor that Mark Grace was a bit of a blowhard. I don’t know if that has anything to do with Mrs. Sandberg, however.[/quote]I think Mark Grace fucked every woman in Chicago except Cindy Sandberg,
Aisle424Quote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Via Bruce Miles:
This is going to be so different from the old regime. It’s like it isn’t even the same team anymore. I love it.[/quote]That’s awesome! The masses are going to be foaming at the mouth. It’s good. It’s exactly what this team needs. Throw the old off in one fell swoop and usher in the new mentality.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Via Bruce Miles:
This is going to be so different from the old regime. It’s like it isn’t even the same team anymore. I love it.[/quote]I wonder if one of the variables is falling bleacher beers. Maybe they’ll just stop at the wind patterns coming off Lake Michigan.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]I think Mark Grace every woman in Chicago except Cindy Sandberg,[/quote]I like that the verb is so easy to infer here.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Bruce Miles]#Cubs interview process will have managerial candidates being given game situations and asked to react, given several variables.[/quote]I wonder if they’ll let them bring any reference materials. Then if one of them pulls out The Book, they can just hire them on the spot.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=josh]I like that the verb is so easy to infer here.[/quote](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
I read that sentence four times before I realized it didn’t even say “fucked.”
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=Aisle424]Via Bruce Miles:
This is going to be so different from the old regime. It’s like it isn’t even the same team anymore. I love it.[/quote]I like that a lot. I wish I could take that test, just to see how I’d do.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]I like that the verb is so easy to infer here.[/quote]Mark Grace accidentally the whole city.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Mark Grace accidentally the whole city.[/quote](dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Aisle424Quote Reply
I hope its like those “you make the story” books they had when I was a kid, where it gives you two options and you flip to different pages depending on your decision.
If you would bunt in this situation, turn to page 88.
Page 88 – Thank you for applying.
GBTSQuote Reply
It sounds like it’s unlikely that Tito is coming to Chicago, though he’s a serious candidate in St. Lou. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-mackanin-maddux-first-up-to-interview-with-cubs-20111103,0,6155016.story
ACTQuote Reply
Mark Grace himself before announcing every D’Backs game.
GBTSQuote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Mark Grace himself before announcing every D’Backs game.[/quote]This reads like a photo caption. It might just work.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Mark Grace his bat to give it a little extra clutch luck.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Mark Grace his bat to give it a little extra clutch luck.[/quote]Is that what he calls it…
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]It sounds like it’s unlikely that Tito is coming to Chicago, though he’s a serious candidate in St. Lou. http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/chi-mackanin-maddux-first-up-to-interview-with-cubs-20111103,0,6155016.story%5B/quote%5DI like how Paul Sullivan takes “top of the list” to “probably not coming” to Chicago.
mb21Quote Reply
Let this be a lesson to you Star Wars fagets. They’re just toys, it’s not worth it:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/8865509/Wife-strangled-after-smashing-up-husbands-Star-Wars-toys.html
GBTSQuote Reply
Wow. Where to start with this one…
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=GBTS]Let this be a lesson to you Star Wars fagets. They’re just toys, it’s not worth it:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/8865509/Wife-strangled-after-smashing-up-husbands-Star-Wars-toys.html%5B/quote%5DMy wife has informed me that this is justifiable homicide. Not sure if serious.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
.
GBTSQuote Reply
http://twitter.com/SI_JonHeyman/statuses/132196904657358848?_escaped_fragment_=/SI_JonHeyman/status/132196904657358848#!/SI_JonHeyman/status/132196904657358848 :
[quote name=SI_JonHeyman]very little (read as: no) chance #cubs hire tito. i bet theo was being polite. francona is real candidate in st. louis, tho[/quote]…
fang2415Quote Reply
Apparently Cubs have been granted permission to interview Sandy Alomar, Jr.
mb21Quote Reply
I think it’s funny how people think that Greg Maddux may become pitching coach for his brother if he’s manager. It’s entirely possible, but there’s not a shred of evidence to suggest that Maddux wants to be in the dugout anytime soon.
How come people aren’t talking about Roberto Alomar becoming the Cubs hitting coach if the Cubs hired his brother?
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]
How come people aren’t talking about Roberto Alomar becoming the Cubs hitting coach if the Cubs hired his brother?[/quote]He’s not gritty enough. And he might spit on the umpire or something.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Yeah, that thing about What Would You Do in a Certain Game Situation….doesn’t sound all that super innovative. I can imagine Branch Rickey asking the same question of Rogers Hornsby, or Jim Hendry of Mike Quade.
Suburban kid 22Quote Reply
I think the Cubs actually said they had the same type of interview last year (and maybe even the one before that).
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=Suburban kid 22]Yeah, that thing about What Would You Do in a Certain Game Situation….doesn’t sound all that super innovative. I can imagine Branch Rickey asking the same question of Rogers Hornsby, or Jim Hendry of Mike Quade.[/quote]Although the answers may lie in the “Lou Piniella puts Sean Marshall in LF” category rather than the “Bob Brenly would just auto-bunt” category. It’s sort of like when you interview for a consultancy job, and they also give you the same types of impromptu questions using case studies. I’m guessing the Theo Trio would want the best out-of-the-box thinking they can get.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
Which person here said they’d give it less than a month before Yellon was a card-carrying, line-toting Theo-ite to the bone? Whoever it was, you win the internet. (dying laughing)
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
(dying laughing) I smell a meme
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
That one is very similar to b’s curtain-pissing meme. Sue! Sue!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
What do you guys think the Cubs will do about Kerry Wood?
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]What do you guys think the Cubs will do about Kerry Wood?[/quote]My guess would be they make a similar offer to last year and he accepts. Otherwise, he retires.
ACTQuote Reply
Keep in mind my guess is based on zero information. Really, it’s more what I’d do.
ACTQuote Reply
I’m guessing the Cubs pass on Wood. He’s more than likely still worth a million bucks or so, but barely. He’s not as dominating as you’d like a late-inning reliever and is more of a 6th or 7th inning guy these days. It’s hard to believe they can find someone comparable for less money. Wood is also a reminder of the old Cubs. On the other hand, he might be great to have around some of the younger guys and could be a leader in the bullpen. Not sure if that matters much though.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’m guessing the Cubs pass on Wood. He’s more than likely still worth a million bucks or so, but barely. He’s not as dominating as you’d like a late-inning reliever and is more of a 6th or 7th inning guy these days. It’s hard to believe they can find someone comparable for less money. Wood is also a reminder of the old Cubs. On the other hand, he might be great to have around some of the younger guys and could be a leader in the bullpen. Not sure if that matters much though.[/quote]
I think Wood comes back. Solid reliever at a pretty good price.
just wondering but at what point do the writers start to wonder why all quotes are coming from Epstein on transactions and not Hoyer? Are they even calling him for a quote?
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]I think Wood comes back. Solid reliever at a pretty good price.
just wondering but at what point do the writers start to wonder why all quotes are coming from Epstein on transactions and not Hoyer? Are they even calling him for a quote?[/quote]I wonder if it’s just as simple as “Jed needs to buy a house so Theo is giving him a few days off” (dying laughing)
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]I think Wood comes back. Solid reliever at a pretty good price.
just wondering but at what point do the writers start to wonder why all quotes are coming from Epstein on transactions and not Hoyer? Are they even calling him for a quote?[/quote]
I think he definitely comes back. He’s cheap and still has good enough stuff to be a late inning guy. Plus they are clearing house of many of the other vets. They will lean on his experience.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
[quote name=Rodrigo Ramirez]I think he definitely comes back. He’s cheap and still has good enough stuff to be a late inning guy. Plus they are clearing house of many of the other vets. They will lean on his experience.[/quote]
Wood will likely be back for $1-2M. I expect the pen to be Wood, Marshall, Marmol, F7, and a bunch of young guys like Carpenter, Jay Jackson, Gaub, etc.
Recalcitrant Blogger NateQuote Reply
*crickets*
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Recalcitrant Blogger Nate]Wood will likely be back for $1-2M. I expect the pen to be Wood, Marshall, Marmol, F7, and a bunch of young guys like Carpenter, Jay Jackson, Gaub, etc.[/quote]That’s a bullpen I think the team can live with. Although I’d prefer they look to trade Marmol rather than try to “fix” him as they have been quoted.
In other news it looks like the Mets might non-tender Pagan. If the Cubs end up re-building the outfield I think he could be a prime target for a position.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]*ricketts*[/quote]
Fixed
MishQuote Reply
I see no reason to not trade Marmol.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I’m guessing the Cubs pass on Wood. He’s more than likely still worth a million bucks or so, but barely. He’s not as dominating as you’d like a late-inning reliever and is more of a 6th or 7th inning guy these days. It’s hard to believe they can find someone comparable for less money. Wood is also a reminder of the old Cubs. On the other hand, he might be great to have around some of the younger guys and could be a leader in the bullpen. Not sure if that matters much though.[/quote]
If you’re cool with the Cubs keeping F7, you have to be fine with keeping Wood around too. Even if you’re not cool with the F7 stuff, like me, I’m still fine with keeping Wood. The money doesn’t seem to matter to him, and reportedly he’s a good clubhouse guy, the fans/media like him, etc. etc. He’s also a fairly quiet guy so they don’t have to worry about getting into a problem with him like they might with Sandberg.
BerseliusQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]Fixed[/quote]thx
WaLiQuote Reply
[quote name=Berselius]If you’re cool with the Cubs keeping F7, you have to be fine with keeping Wood around too..[/quote]Don’t tell me what to do.
WaLiQuote Reply
I don’t really care, but the only reason I’d sign Wood at this point is if you think it’s reasonable the team can contend and you trade Marmol. It’s such a small amount of money that it’s not something you could even begin to get upset over. I just wouldn’t do it it was my decision.
mb21Quote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t really care, but the only reason I’d sign Wood at this point is if you think it’s reasonable the team can contend and you trade Marmol. It’s such a small amount of money that it’s not something you could even begin to get upset over. I just wouldn’t do it it was my decision.[/quote]Is $1.5MM a bit too much for a “mascot” fee? If they just keep the salary as is it might not be so bad.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think keep or sign, Wood will have close to zero net impact on the team. He was worth, what, half a WAR last couple of seasons? Sign him if there’s no one better for the price, otherwise let him go to pasture.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=mb21]I don’t really care, but the only reason I’d sign Wood at this point is if you think it’s reasonable the team can contend and you trade Marmol. It’s such a small amount of money that it’s not something you could even begin to get upset over. I just wouldn’t do it it was my decision.[/quote]
I don’t see why you wouldn’t. He still strikes out a ton of guys, has low HR totals, and valuable based on his low salary. I mean they were paying Grabow 3.5 mil per year. How can the team not justify spending 1.5 mil for Wood.
Rodrigo RamirezQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is $1.5MM a bit too much for a “mascot” fee? If they just keep the salary as is it might not be so bad.[/quote]Yeah, this. Kerry seems like a stand-up guy and his experience with the Cubs comes from one of the few parts of the old team that they would actually want to re-create (the 2004 pitching staff). I don’t think I’ve ever heard anything about him being anything other than a good egg, he’s never gotten annoying like Dempster or cranky like Prior, the fans love him, etc., etc. Plus at the price he seems to want I think they’re actually getting surplus value from his pitching. Okay, the team may not need that now, but with the other stuff in there, it’s worth keeping him unless you really need to put that 1.5 bucks somewhere else.
If they were the Rays, maybe. But for the Cubs he’s almost worth $1.5MM if only for the community rep that his foundation gives the team.
fang2415Quote Reply
I think my nerd brain just exploded.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15405
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I’m not saying it can’t be justified. It can be. Wood is still worth a contract the Cubs would probably give him so that’s not an issue. And I would re-sign Wood if the team trades Marmol, which is what I think they should do.
mb21Quote Reply
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/education/edlife/at-moneyball-u-what-are-the-odds.html?_r=1
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Is $1.5MM a bit too much for a “mascot” fee?[/quote]
Would it be worth $1.5MM to have Ronnie Woo-Woo put in a home? I’d take the under, but I would actually want to price it out just in case…
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=WaLi]*wickets*[/quote]/cricketed
Suburban kid 22Quote Reply
[quote name=BP Nerdgasm]Odo, the humorless constable, was the umpire – of course. The lone umpire, making all calls from behind the plate. When Sisko asked him to don the gear, he gave Odo an impassioned speech. “I don’t want a computer program calling a baseball game. That’s something [the Vulcans] would do. I want a real person behind the plate, not just some collection of photons and magnetic fields.” Nice to know that 24th century baseball fans still can’t handle any kind of automated umpire.[/quote](dying laughing)
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415](dying laughing)[/quote]Despite being in the last season when it was going downhill and they put in the short annoying Dax because Terry Farrell decided to do “Becker”, this was one of my favorite DS9 episodes.
/cool story and prosper’d
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Would it be worth $1.5MM to have Ronnie Woo-Woo put in a home? I’d take the under, but I would actually want to price it out just in case…[/quote]I think the Cubs and their fans draw the line at free tickets, although I’ve heard that he has an apartment and is fed adequately. No clue who finances that though.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
I think they’d get more in return for Marshall. Actually he should have been traded last year. Marmol’s contact is too expensive to get much. I think he makes 9M this year. Marshall makes 3M. I’d be open to trading either tho and making Carpenter or Cashner the closer.
work sucksQuote Reply
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/how_to_find_a_manager/
MishQuote Reply
[quote name=work sucks]I think they’d get more in return for Marshall. Actually he should have been traded last year. Marmol’s contact is too expensive to get much. I think he makes 9M this year. Marshall makes 3M. I’d be open to trading either tho and making Carpenter or Cashner the closer.[/quote]I don’t know that the Cubs HAVE to get a ton of value in return for Marmol. The return is freeing up 8M to use more appropriately on the team.
so I’ve now seen two articles discussing why the Giants trading Lincecum might be a good idea. I’m sure there’s nothing concrete behind either but figuring out how to get him in chicago would some kind of awesome.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=work sucks]I think they’d get more in return for Marshall. Actually he should have been traded last year. Marmol’s contact is too expensive to get much. I think he makes 9M this year. Marshall makes 3M. I’d be open to trading either tho and making Carpenter or Cashner the closer.[/quote]If you’re going to contend in the next 2-3 years, does Marshall make more sense to keep, though?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]I don’t know that the Cubs HAVE to get a ton of value in return for Marmol. The return is freeing up 8M to use more appropriately on the team.
so I’ve now seen two articles discussing why the Giants trading Lincecum might be a good idea. I’m sure there’s nothing concrete behind either but figuring out how to get him in chicago would some kind of awesome.[/quote]Step 1: Gut the minor league system.
Step 2: probably through in a few MLB players as well.
binkyQuote Reply
Step 3: TIMMYAAAYYY!
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]If you’re going to contend in the next 2-3 years, does Marshall make more sense to keep, though?[/quote]He;s a FA after this year, so either you’re gonna sign him at market rate or replace him from within more cheaply. I guess it depends on how he’s used and how difficult it is to replace what he does. If he’s the Lefty, thats replaceable. If he’s the set-up/part-time closer, or if he’s used for multiple innings to get him up to 100-120IP, I guess you think about keeping him.
work sucksQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]If you’re going to contend in the next 2-3 years, does Marshall make more sense to keep, though?[/quote]That might depend on how valuable Theo/Jed think relievers are. If they think they can finagle a trade later on to get a better reliever for a pennant race, might be best to get as much as you can for Marshall and Marmol up front, then replace them later when it actually matters.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]That might depend on how valuable Theo/Jed think relievers are. If they think they can finagle a trade later on to get a better reliever for a pennant race, might be best to get as much as you can for Marshall and Marmol up front, then replace them later when it actually matters.[/quote]Good points all. Theo mentioned they might have to get creative. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out.
binkyQuote Reply
I’d love to see them get unconventional and use Marshall and Cashner out of the pen for 2-3 innings, giving them 120IP/year. It’s way cheaper than paying for starters, assuming they can handle the workload.
work sucksQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Good points all. Theo mentioned they might have to get creative. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out.[/quote]I think if your team is going to suck, it doesn’t matter who the 7th/8th inning guy is. You try to squeeze as many innings out of your rotation, then give guys like Cashner and Carpenter innings at the end for experience at least until Cashner gets his endurance up and shows that his arm isn’t going to fall apart. Maybe I’m too extreme but I don’t think relief pitching is as big of a priority as the position players and the rotation, so I’m kind of gung ho on trading the expensive relievers and just putting the best AAA arms in the bullpen. Hope for the best.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=work sucks]I’d love to see them get unconventional and use Marshall and Cashner out of the pen for 2-3 innings, giving them 120IP/year. It’s way cheaper than paying for starters, assuming they can handle the workload.[/quote]Oooh, a fireman rotation!
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]I think if your team is going to suck, it doesn’t matter who the 7th/8th inning guy is. You try to squeeze as many innings out of your rotation, then give guys like Cashner and Carpenter innings at the end for experience at least until Cashner gets his endurance up and shows that his arm isn’t going to fall apart. Maybe I’m too extreme but I don’t think relief pitching is as big of a priority as the position players and the rotation, so I’m kind of gung ho on trading the expensive relievers and just putting the best AAA arms in the bullpen. Hope for the best.[/quote]I don’t know. Relief pitching is probably cheaper, for sure. They can probably assemble a bullpen that can at least be semi-effective for cheap, and add pieces midseason if they suddenly find themselves legitimately in contention thanks to Ryne Sandberg’s horrible management of the Cardinals and the Brewers complete meltdown Post-Fielder.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]That might depend on how valuable Theo/Jed think relievers are. If they think they can finagle a trade later on to get a better reliever for a pennant race, might be best to get as much as you can for Marshall and Marmol up front, then replace them later when it actually matters.[/quote]Do you mean how available they are? This could be a case where value in terms of wins isn’t as important as being able to find a replacement when you need one. Liquidity rather than price, I guess you could say.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]Do you mean how available they are? This could be a case where value in terms of wins isn’t as important as being able to find a replacement when you need one. Liquidity rather than price, I guess you could say.[/quote]I meant value, but I think what you said is better.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Mish]http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/how_to_find_a_manager/[/quote]I think I’m in love.
ACTQuote Reply
[quote name=ACT]I think I’m in love.[/quote]Seems like a good method to see their true colors.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Step 1: Gut the minor league system.
Step 2: probably through in a few MLB players as well.[/quote]it likely guts the cubs system but he is going to be very expensive the next 2 years. That said I think the Giants would want major league players that are still cheap along with a ML-ready player like Jackson.
JManQuote Reply
[quote name=JMan]it likely guts the cubs system but he is going to be very expensive the next 2 years. That said I think the Giants would want major league players that are still cheap along with a ML-ready player like Jackson.[/quote]Is he really worth it? Seems like his worth has been dropping off steadily the last few years, and he’s a guy who’s already said he doesn’t want to be tied up in a long-term contract, which means no multi-year discount, though maybe it also means you get him cheap if he has an off-year. We give up — what? — BJax and Castro? Who else do the Cubs have that qualifies as ML cheap and MLB ready?
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Is he really worth it? Seems like his worth has been dropping off steadily the last few years, and he’s a guy who’s already said he doesn’t want to be tied up in a long-term contract, which means no multi-year discount, though maybe it also means you get him cheap if he has an off-year. We give up — what? — BJax and Castro? Who else do the Cubs have that qualifies as ML cheap and MLB ready?[/quote]Bryan LaHair.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]Bryan LaHair.[/quote]My guess is the Giants have the same reservations about LaHair that any rational person would.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]My guess is the Giants have the same reservations about LaHair that any rational person would.[/quote]You overestimate Bryan Sabean.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]You overestimate Bryan Sabean.[/quote][quote name=josh]My guess is the Giants have the same reservations about LaHair that any idiot would.[/quote].
fang2415Quote Reply
http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-1104-manager-cubs-chicago–20111104,0,5170205.story
Why do we do not want Mackanin again? Aside from OV’s rabidly anti-Catholic bias, that is?
fang2415Quote Reply
The only knock I can think of re: Mackanin is his age relative to the other candidates.
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=Rice Cube]The only knock I can think of re: Mackanin is his age relative to the other candidates.[/quote]He’s more his age than the other candidates are their ages?
/Nice snark’d
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]He’s more his age than the other candidates are their ages?
/Nice snark’d[/quote]
Rice CubeQuote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-1104-manager-cubs-chicago–20111104,0,5170205.story
Why do we do not want Mackanin again? Aside from OV’s rabidly anti-Catholic bias, that is?[/quote]Fucking Catholics!!
I only want MacKanin if his brother will be pitching coach.
binkyQuote Reply
[quote name=josh]Fucking Catholics!!
I only want MacKanin if his brother will be pitching coach.[/quote]I only want him if he hires Brother Rice’s pitching coach.
/White Sox’d
fang2415Quote Reply
From http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-1104-bits-cubs-chicago–20111104,0,7169656.story :
a little on Cubs’ history,” Wood said.[/quote]Nice of them to provide a link to a bunch of articles about brains. That really enriches my understanding of Wood’s quote there.
fang2415Quote Reply
[quote name=fang2415]From http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-1104-bits-cubs-chicago–20111104,0,7169656.story :
Nice of them to provide a link to a bunch of articles about brains. That really enriches my understanding of Wood’s quote there.[/quote](dying laughing)
Tribune’s links > mine
fang2415Quote Reply
New exclusive shit: http://obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/articles/cubs-managerial-candidate-test.html
Aisle424Quote Reply