Over a year ago I applied the Keltner List test to Sammy Sosa and figured I’d do the same thing for most of the eligible candidates just for fun. Bill James came up with the Keltner List back in 1985 and I’ll let Wiki explain.
The Keltner list is a systematic but non-numerical method for determining whether a baseball player is deserving of election to the National Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown, New York. It makes use of an inventory of questions (mostly yes-or-no format) regarding the merit of players relative to their peers. Enshrinement in the Hall of Fame is one of the highest honors in sports, with only 234 players having been inducted as of 2011. Election to the Hall is also permanent. However, selection for the Hall is by election; no “cut-offs” or objective criteria exist (other than rules about how players become eligible for election). It can therefore be difficult for voters and fans alike to determine which former players are deserving of the honor.
The Keltner list comprises 15 questions designed to aid in the thought process. Each question is designed to be relatively easy to answer.
So there you have it.
1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
I’m sure people have argued at one time or another that the following eligible candidates were the best in the game: Jeff Bagwell, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire. It’s possible some argued that Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker were the best at one time or another.
2. Was he the best player on his team?
All of the players named above were at one time probably the best player on their team. From this point forward, I’ll only be using those players named in the first question.
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
Arguments can be made that at one point in time or another that each of those 10 were the best at his position. Bonds, Clemens and Piazza are perhaps the best ever at their respective positions.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
6 times between 1997 and 2005 the Astros reached the postseason. Clemens was a part of two of those teams and others as well. Schilling, Bonds and Edgar, yes. Walker, Raines and Sosa, perhaps.
5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?
I consider the prime to be prior to age 30 so the answer for all of them is yes as far as I’m concerned.
6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
Barry Bonds is the best player ever not in the Hall of Fame and there can only be one.
7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
Yes. All of these players are more than qualified for the Hall of Fame based on career WAR.
8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
Yes, see number 7.
9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
Unfortunately, the answer to this question is yes for several of the players: Bonds, Clemens, Sosa and McGwire. Possibly for Piazza and Bagwell and maybe others, but really, who can know who took steroids with any certainty and to what degree the stats were helped by it?
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
Bonds, Clemens, Bagwell, Piazza, Edgar (DH) yes. Obviously Schilling, McGwire are no. I’d assume the others are too, but I’m not positive and too lazy to look it up.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
- Bagwell won 1 MVP, finished in the top 10 6 times (4 AS)
- Biggio finished in the top 10 3 times (7 AS)
- Raines 3 top 10 finishes (7 AS)
- Edgar 2 top 10 finishes (7 AS)
- Walker won 1 MVP, finished in top 10 4 times (5 AS)
- McGwire 5 top 10 finishes (12 AS)
- Clemens won an MVP, finished 6 times in the top 10, won 7 Cy Young Awards, finished in top 10 CYA 11 times (11 AS)
- Bonds 7 MVP awards, 13 top 10 finishes (14 AS)
- Piazza 7 top 10 finishes (12 AS)
- Schilling 2 top 10 MVP, 4 CYA top 10 (6 AS)
- Sosa 1 MVP, 7 top 10 finishes (7 AS)
12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?
See question 11
13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?
Yes for all of them.
14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
I don’t know how to answer this question. No player here was like Jackie Robinson. None of them invented a pitch, were responsible for rule changes that I’m aware of or had much or anything to do with new equipment.
15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
I’m going to pass on this question considering so many others have failed to uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider.
Sadly, it appears that no one may get elected to the Hall of Fame though it seems more likely at least one gets in since MLB Network decided to announce it live.
Myles wrote:
it’s impressive, but we shouldn’t forget that by all accounts he looked overmatched in extended spring training (189/306/379 in 111 PA). there is no official scorer there for those games so they don’t show up in his official minor league numbers, but that’s why we have arizona phil!
I don’t see why the Cubs would go after Rick Porcello. That never made much sense to me. He’s not very good. He’s up for arbitration again and will make $4 million or so. No thanks.
@ dmick89:
I didn’t see the new shit-o-matic warning but from the last thread when WaLi suggested floating Soriano, maybe they can send Soriano over to the O’s and have the O’s throw the prospect over to Detroit so the Cubs can get Porcello on the “cheap” (in terms of prospects). Of course that gets into the whole quandary of how you replace Soriano’s offense…
@ dmick89:
yeah, it’s a little strange. i’m guessing it would be a scouting bet on him improving, based on his pedigree and his uptick in velocity last season.
@ GW:
motherfuckers start slow all the time. Maybe he was pissed he didnt get assigned to a full league team and sulked.
What he actually did is more impressive to me
also, if you are in favor of bringing the DH to the NL, that’s fine and dandy, but I wouldn’t base my decision on a fat 19 year old who has yet to play full season ball.
Guess the Chicago media had to throw in their own Sosa timeline at some point:
http://www.csnchicago.com/baseball-chicago-cubs/cubs-talk/Sammy-Sosas-career-timeline-A-complicate?blockID=821125&feedID=661
@ bubblesdachimp:
motherfuckers do start slow, but if we are projecting full season numbers, one way to do it is to, you know, look at his full season numbers.
@ GW:
I’d put less weight in ExSt. stats than I would any of the winter league stats. This seems to be the consensus among scouts on Vogelbach:
All numbers up to and even including AA (and AAA) should be taken lightly though. There’s still far more things that can go wrong than right for Vogelbach.
@ Rice Cube:
(dying laughing)
dmick89 wrote:
that’s probably true. is he playing winter ball?
@ WaLi:
I laughed too until it almost happened to me.
@ GW:
You know I’m not doing that. With Vogelbach or not, I want the DH in the NL. If I never saw another pitcher bat I’d consider myself lucky.
dmick89 wrote:
indeed. not directed at you.
@ GW:
No winter ball for him. I don’t think that’s uncommon. The winter leagues are generally considered to be somewhere between AA and AAA so throwing him in Winter League would be like bumping him to AA/AAA. If he has a good season next year and reaches High A I think he’ll play in Winter League somewhere.
Then again, he’s probably not have gotten cut by a winter league team like Vitters did. (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
It did happen to me about a year ago while blowing my damn nose. I felt something pop and didn’t think much about it at the time, but an hour later I could barely fucking move.
I want the DH since i think the NL is at a competitive disadvantage
@ bubblesdachimp:
They might be to some extent. AL teams can more easily sign a position player to a big contract because they have the DH that they can move him to years down the road. That certainly has an impact on the early end, but might benefit the NL down the road.
I’ve said this a million times, but to me it comes down to one simple thing: pitcher don’t give a shit if they can hit. It’s no longer part of their jobs so they spend as little time possible doing it (and they should, pitching is their job!).
My issue with the DH is the current Cubs staff has issues getting 8 “regular” batters out….Now you expect them to get 9 out? Impossible.
I just went to CNN.com and confirmed this…damn you universe.
@ dmick89:
I once broke a rib coughing. It was when I had the flu, so every time I coughed or sneezed it felt like I was getting a knife in my side. It’s the sorta shit that’s really funny when it’s happening to someone else…
On Vogelbach, I’ve said it before but it does seem to me like it’s a lot easier to get a kid into shape than it is to teach him to become an elite hitter (which for his age/level, the consensus seems that Vogelbach already is). And I have a lot more faith in the Cubs taking shit like offseason player development seriously than I used to.
@ mikeakaleroy:
amazing
@ uncle dave:
Thing is he might just be a big dude who aint changing.
@ dmick89:
Do you also have lingering bursitis?
I’m with you Uncle Dave. The fact that this kid at 19 is overweight is not a big deal. The fact that he might be one of the top hitters in MiLB is a big deal. If the Cubs think he’s got the potential to be a plus power hitter, then they should be getting him involved in condititioning programs. Some guys are always going to be bigger so if he can lose 50 lbs of fat and add 20 pounds of muscle, he could keep his power but have a better body. I think his weight issue is overblown.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/ken-burns-clemens-bonds-baseball-409759
WTF
Apparently Liriano injured his arm in December, and his deal with the Pirates is not done.
There is going to be a serious backlog on hall of fame ballots if no one gets in this year
(dying laughing)
Good fucking god
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2013/01/brett-jacksons-strikeout-rate-reaches-historic-level/
@ bubblesdachimp:
wow
Apparently the O’s are also interested in Porcello so why not just trade Hardy for Porcello plus? I think this 3-team talk is bullshit. Doesn’t make sense.
people are hating on bubbs favorite girl ever.
http://www.barstoolsports.com/nyc/super-page/kate-upton-burns-the-jets-on-twitter-last-night/
Randy Johnson intetionally walked one Cub in his career. Guesses?
@ bubblesdachimp:
Matt Murton?Oh, I missed the “intentionally”.
Still, I bet it is not someone like Sammy Sosa or Joey Gathright.
@ bubblesdachimp:
Could be. I’ve read that he’s lost some weight since turning pro. Don’t underestimate the value of having elite-level fitness professionals and facilities at your disposal. Hell, I once lost 50 pounds without any of that stuff, so how tough could it be?
@ uncle dave:
You make a good point about it being a hell of a lot easier to lose weight or stay in shape than it is to improve hitting, which is pretty fucking difficult. Ryan Theriot can’t become a power hitter, but if Ryan Theriot was fat, he could lose weight.
I’m not too worried about Vogelbach’s weight to be honest. The guy is very big, but if he hits as some of the scouts seem to think he’ll do, it won’t much matter. Maybe he won’t be able to play 1st base and he’ll have to be a DH, which will probably suck for the Cubs, but he’ll be able to play (Prince Fielder has no problem playing at a very high level).
@ bubblesdachimp:
Moises Alou
Some random number 8 hitter
@ Fordyce Messbaum, Retired Pushcart Baron:
Mr. Gumb? Is that you?
Johnson only had 37 IBB in his career. I looked and found the answer. (dying laughing)
@ JonKneeV:
False
@ dmick89:
They’ll have to ship him from city to city via freight train, though, so that might make some of the longer trips or quicker turnarounds between series problematic. Still, if you can hit, you can hit.
@ dmick89:
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
Will let a few others guess.
@ bubblesdachimp:
I’ve narrowed it down to two so I guess I don’t know. Is it the shitty player or the good one?
the shitty player was intentionally walked by him twice in his career though he wasn’t always a shitty player.
actually, looking at his page on Fangraphs, not so shitty at all. Shitty in his time with the Cubs!
@ dmick89:
I assume it has to be the shitty player since i was under the impression he only IBB’d one guy when he faced the cubs.
He was one of my favortie players growing up FWIW. I modeled my baseball career after him. (I flamed out in 7th grade)
Updated HOF Ballots:
Updated 6:45 ~ 146 Full Ballots ~ (25.5% of vote ~ based on last year)
Cooperstown = Ghost town? %.
69.2 – Biggio
63.7 – J. Morris
62.3 – Raines
61.6 – Bagwell
58.2 – Piazza
43.2 – Clemens
43.2 – Bonds
39.7 – L. Smith
38.4 – Schilling
37.7 – E. Martinez
37.0 – Trammell
21.2 – D. Murphy
18.5 – McGriff
15.8 – L. Walker
14.1 – S. Sosa
14.4 – Raffy
13.7 – McGwire
8.9 – Mattingly
———————————
2.7 – Lofton
2.1 – P. Rose (goofy write-in’s)
2.1 – Bernie Williams
1.4 – D. Wells
0.7 – J. Franco
0.7 – S. Alomar Jr.
0.7 – S. Green
This means Biggio needs about 77.2% of the remaining voters if the number of voters is equal to last year.
Morris needs 77.6%, Raines 78.3%, 79% for Bagwell, 80% for Piazza and 84.6% for both Bonds and Clemens. (may have mixed up my numbers here, but those are pretty close). Unless MLB Network wants to air a show that announces nobody, I believe Biggio was the only player elected to the Hall of Fame.
@ bubblesdachimp:
He did IBB only one, but there were two players who he IBB’d that played for the Cubs. Both played for other teams so I didn’t know which one it was who he walked on the Cubs. Was it a catcher?
@ dmick89:
It was the catcher..
Batiing around him that day???
Manny Alexander and Mickey Morandini
@ dmick89:
So Lofton probably falls off the ballot? That is fucked up. Bubbs would have voted for him
So it was Benito Santiago and not Rey Ordonnez.
@ bubblesdachimp:
Yeah, he batted 8th so probably runner in scoring position and a pitcher coming up.
@ bubblesdachimp:
Yeah, that’s too bad too. He’s more of a borderline candidate than some of the others, but he’s still good enough to get in. He should definitely be on the ballot longer, but it won’t matter anyway. Say Biggio gets in and nobody else does, it will only be harder and harder for others in the future to get in. Next year you have 4 hall of famers who become eligible and it will be difficult for them (including Maddux). By 2014 there could be 19 legitimate hall of fame candidates on the ballot and more than likely at that point, no one gets in because the vote is split.
@ Suburban kid:
(dying laughing) (dying laughing) (dying laughing)
@ dmick89:
Yea bubbs debated this on his listserve today. Basically he is afraid that Maddux might not make it next year due to the following segments of itiots.
-The we dont vote for anyone on the first ballot (probably around 4%)
-The we dont vote for anyone from the steroid era contingent
-The we dont vote for anyone who we suspected of using contingent (guarantee .4 percent of voting population thinks he used)
-The blank ballot contingent
-The we only vote for hitters and people like Jack Morris and Lee Smith contingent
Basically the hall of fame is fucked if only Biggio is elected tomorrow.
@ dmick89:
I think Maddux is a shoe-in no matter how crowded the ballot. He’s a poster child among the old school crowd for the “clean player” even though I think he probably put some moisture on the baseball from time to time.
Not to mention that the sportwriters adored him for his clubhouse presence (pranks and the like).
Bubbles was wrong. The threshold of voters who wont vote for a first time appears to be 1.5% if we use Cal as the gold standard
edit: It was fun talking baseball today with yall!!! Will be around more often
@ GW:
I’d like to think so, but I think it depends. I can easily see a situation in which he doesn’t get in. I do think he will, but he probably won’t get the 95%+ that he’d have gotten with a less crowded ballot. There are going to be some who vote in other guys they’ve been voting in who haven’t yet gotten in. Some won’t vote because it’s the first ballot. I think he’s the most likely player to get elected in the next 4 to 6 years.
When do Morris and Smith come off the ballot?
this will be Morris’s 14th ballot and Dale Murphy’s 15th.
13 for Mattingly, 12 for Trammel, and 11 for Lee Smith
If I understand this correctly, it means this is Murphy’s last chance.
@ GW:
When Smith and Morris are off the ballot that will make things a little easier in that voters won’t be throwing votes at players who don’t deserve them at such a high rate.
@ GW:
Yeah, you have 15 years on the ballot if you get, what, 5%? Do you have to get 5% each year? Say a player got 5.1%, would he be on it for the next 14 even if it fell below 5% in the 2nd year?
Morris’ last ballot will be next year.
5% per year
@ dmick89:
that will be interesting. there will be some sportswriter hissy fits thrown if the new generation keeps him out.
(dying laughing), sorting by rWAR, Jack Morris will rank 28th on next year’s ballot
27th if we assume Lofton drops off.
@ GW:
actually, 23rd if julio franco, david wells, bernie williams, and biggio are all gone
So Morris has that going for him. (dying laughing)
Wells is another who shouldn’t drop off. How can Morris and Smith be on so long and Lofton and Wells can’t get a second year?
So did I miss the answer? Which Cub did Randy Johnson IBB?
@ Rice Cube:
Ah, I see…funny, I’ve always thought of him as a Giant.
GW wrote:
That doesn’t count as cheating for some reason.
http://espn.go.com/new-york/story/_/id/8814011/barry-bonds-roger-clemens-do-not-belong-baseball-hall-fame
At this point, I don’t even give a shit why they are/are not voting for anyone. I just think writing an article like that about your voting, as if it’s some big deal, is fucking lame. Like these writers have some sacred responsibility to honor the hall of fame or some shit. Get the fuck over yourself. If they cared so much, they should have done their job and reported shit back when it was happening.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
Spitting on balls doesn’t give you bacne so it isn’t cheating.
Does anyone here have any experiance with blackout restrictions for online sports streaming services? I’m hoping NHL isn’t completely stupid, and offers their online game watching thing at a good discount so that I can watch the Blackhawks. But if I live in Milwaukee, I don’t want to be blacked out from the games. Are local area blackouts the same for hockey as baseball?
@ Edwin:
I think the blackout rule is if you can get it on local cable network TV, then you can’t watch it on Center Ice. I live in NC, so I can’t watch Center Ice if the Blackhawks play the Hurricanes.
But there isn’t a Hockey team in Wisconsin so it isn’t as cut and dry. Are you able to get CSN-Chicago or WGN Chicago? If so, then Center Ice will probably not work.
They should offer it at a discount since there are only half as many games and they don’t want to piss off their fans any more. They usually do half way through the season anyways.
@ Edwin:
I actually sent the NHL Center Ice folk an email about this a couple years ago with my zip code and they replied back fairly quickly. Blackout restrictions need to go away quickly. As soon as they do, I’ll drop cable, and just pick up Center Ice and MLB.tv.
@ mikeakaleroy:
Which is why they will never fully go away.
New Shit
hall of fame so dumb