As a 20 year old rookie Starlin Castro posted a respectable 5.7% walk rate. There was nothing impressive about it except that it's a 5.7% rate at the age of 20. Walks is a skill that improves throughout a player's career so things looked pretty good. In 2011 at the age of 21 it dropped to 4.9% and now at the age of 22 it's only 2.1%.
Fangraphs includes intentional walks when they calculate BB%, but you really want to know the non-intentional walk rate. I also prefer to include HBP so you could call it NiBB+HBP%. Or call it whatever you want. Below you'll see those numbers for Castro.
Of those 7 IBB in 2010, 6 of them were batting 8th. Castro batted 8th that year in 32 games. Interestingly, he was also hit by a pitcher much more frequently than in the next season. As a result, his BB (NiBB%+HBP%) was 5.6%. That's declined to 4.9% and then 2.8% this season. His NiBB% actually improved ever so slightly in his second season, but he didn't bat 8th that season. He's yet to be intentionally walked this year and has barely shown any ability to take the base on balls.
Castro's batting average and OBP is .291 and .307. Both of those are career lows and the OBP is 40 points lower than his rookie season. He reached base via HBP and NiBB twice as frequently as a rookie. Because of this, his OBP is barely above .300 and there's very little difference between his OBP and average.
His wOBA has dropped to a career low .312 (90 wRC+, also a career low).
That's not entirely because of his low walks. He also has a career low .336 BABIP while he has a career high 18.1% strikeout rate. The BABIP isn't too much lower than the previous two seasons and was due for some regression anyway. The 18.1% K-rate is quite a bit higher than the 14.0% and 13.4% he posted his first two seasons.
We expected regression with his BABIP as said already and it's important to point out that we should expect some regression with his walk and strikeout rates. How much? It's hard to say. The best thing at this point is to look at the projections and ZiPS has him a 4.9% BB%. We can also look at when the sample sizes become more reliable, or rather more indicative of what we might see in the future.
Cutter basically searched for the point at which split-half reliability tests produced a 0.70 correlation or higher. A split-half reliability test involves finding the correlations between partitions of one dataset. For instance, taking all of Burrell’s evenly numbered plate appearances and separating them from the odd ones, and then running correlations on both. When both are very similar, the data becomes more reliable. Though a 1.0 correlation indicated a perfect relationship, 0.70 is usually the ultimate benchmark in statistical studies, especially relative to baseball, when DIPS theory was derived from correlations of lesser strength. Without further delay, here are the results of his article as far as when certain statistics stabilize for individual hitters:
50 PA: Swing % 100 PA: Contact Rate 150 PA: Strikeout Rate, Line Drive Rate, Pitches/PA 200 PA: Walk Rate, Groundball Rate, GB/FB 250 PA: Flyball Rate 300 PA: Home Run Rate, HR/FB 500 PA: OBP, SLG, OPS, 1B Rate, Popup Rate 550 PA: ISO
Pizza Cutter looked up to 650 plate appearances and if any stat isn't shown here it never reached the necessary .70 correlation.
We can see from this that it doesn't take very long at all for Swing % to become reliable. The same is true for contact, K, and LD rate as well as pitches per plate appearance. Actually, it doesn't take very long for any of the stats listed above.
Through Saturday's games Castro has had 281 plate appearances so the following stats of his are "more reliable" than what he had done before: Swing%, Contact Rate, K-rate, LD rate, P/PA, BB-rate, GB rate, GB/FB, and FB rate. He's very near the point at which is HR and HR/FB rates are more reliable.
In case you're wondering, here's how Castro has fared this season in each of those stats compared to previous years. I've included stats that become reliable with as many as 300 PA.
Not everything is going in the wrong direction. It's nice to see him hitting more line drives though LD% as a stat has questionable results when it comes to whether it's accurate or not. The GB% and GB/FB are both going in a direction that will allow him to hit more home runs, which he's done (HR%, HR/FB).
That's the good news.
His swing% has consistently increased while his contact % has declined in each of his 3 seasons. The K% is way up this year and the P/PA is down. The walk rate is a huge concern in my opinion. Walks aren't the only way to provide value of course, but they are important. Castro doesn't think they are that important or that it's not that important he works on that skill anyway.
"I don't have to change," he said. "The walks and those kinds of things, they're coming. I try to be more patient, but right now, the pitchers are throwing strikes. That's all I can do, swing the bat. If the pitcher doesn't throw strikes, I don't swing. A lot of guys are (first-pitch hitters), and the hitting coach, he likes that. He said if you know your pitch, swing, even if it's the first pitch."
While there is some truth to what he's saying, that's not exactly what you want to hear. And it's not entirely true. The walks aren't just going to come. The fact he's making less contact and striking out more would normally mean an increase in pitches per plate appearance, but Castro's has gone down. The last remark there is odd too. Obviously you can't take every first pitch or pitchers would just throw it down the middle and get ahead 0-1. However, only 31 batters have seen more 1st pitch strikes than Castro. It's unlikely that he's swinging only at his pitches. It's unlikely he's swinging at only strikes. He definitely can be more selective in any count and it's something he needs to work on. Mostly though, you just hate to read comments like this from a 22-year old ballplayer.
To Castro's credit, it does appear as though he has improved defensively and despite having more caught stealing than all but one player has still been a plus on the bases. Overall, there are some positive trends and some negative ones, but as we can see from his batting line, the negative trends are negatively affecting his ability to be as good at the plate as he was in the previous two seasons. I don't expect him to change his stance or any of that, but I do expect him to work on getting better.
Cubs lose.
I don’t know if Baker is better than LaHair against lefties or not, but he’s certainly more boring.
So bottom line: Wait and see. Like any 22-year-old, Castro is learning on the job, from a set of coaches and management that have been fairly inconsistent in his three years. Plusses still outweigh minusses, so let’s not freak out.
At least that’s my take.
@ SVB:
Yeah, I get tired of the “What’s wrong with Starlin Castro” talks that come up every time he gets into a slump.
@ ACT:
You know what they say about Koyie Hill, our boring First Baseman, and Reed Johnson:
The Butcher, the Baker, the Candlestick Maker; knaves all three.
@ SVB:
I’m not freaked out about it. For one thing I really couldn’t care less how well he performs. Not now anyway. Maybe in 5 years if he’s still on the team but other than that it doesn’t matter. Not to the Cubs and not to me.
He’s had the same hitting coach his entire career until this past wee and only 2 managers.
ACT this has nothing to do with a slump. I couldnt tell you what hes done tonight, over the last week, or the last month.
His walk rate has sucked all year and it was something I highlighted last year. This year its just plain terrible.
mb21 wrote:
I didn’t mean to suggest that you intentionally posted this because he’s in a slump. It’s just that the “Starlin swings at everything” discussions pop up everywhere when he’s struggling. For instance, the quote from Starlin about how he doesn’t have to change came up because of his recent struggles.
Stalin is 3-3 with a single, double, and triple today, though only the triple was well-hit (the double was a blooper that was misplayed; the single was in the infield).
Cubs tie it up thanks to horrible plays by Boston, then they give up three. This is a year.
ACT wrote:
Those hits belonged to the masses!
@ josh:
Probably should have just said “Castro,” but that joke would have worked regardless.
@ ACT:
His real name is Jose De La Carma anyway.
@ josh:
And he’s 35 years old.
@ ACT:
Which means he’s still eligible as a hot Cubs prospect.
Hope all you guys had a good Father’s Day.
@ mb21:
Sorry MB. Didn’t mean to imply you were freaking out. I thought your analysis showed Castro was doing better on some things while worse on BB%. Typical for a kid, I’d say. If it was all looking worse, then it would be time to be pessimistic. 5 years from now is another story, of course.
But like ACT said, there seems to be a lot of others freaking. “Castro doesn’t walk, Castro should be traded. Castro doesn’t fit Thoyer profile…..”
In only 3 years: 1 hitting coach, 3 managers, 2 GMs, current philosophy differs from past (whatever it was), little time in minors, all=instability. I think he has enough talent to overcome his weaknesses if he’s coachable. On that point, I have no real data.
The fact that his defense has improved (that last inning doesn’t count (dying laughing)) makes me think he is coachable. It just takes time for it to sink in though.
@ Rice Cube:
Good point
Random note: Jim Thome has 100+ HR for three different franchises.
Rally time!
9th inning rally!
Bobby said bad words to Aceves, I bet.
@ josh:
Told him to have more fun out there, I bet.
@ Rice Cube:
It worked.
We’re Number One! We’re Number One!
Draft pick, obviously.
1.5 games up!
@ SVB:
I think what we see with Castro right now is about what you’re going to get from him in the future. A little more power but he’s never going to be a power hitter. A few more walks but hell never be an OBP guy. Like almost all young SS he’ll eventually move to a new position. A good player who makes a handful of all star teams but never a great player.
And there’s nothing whatsoever wrong with that. He’ll be productive and above average. If that’s what Rizzo and/or Jackson end up I’ll be thrilled.
Children are the Future thread would be great today!
Jackson didn’t K.
Vitters went 2/3
Lake went 3/4 no K and his K% is below 20 again!
Rizzo homered
What I’m saying here is, the Hope Monster was having a field day.
To the left y’all
To the left y’all
Because I rock upon the mic real def y’all
@ Doogolas:
Moving into the minor leagues. That’s good, because the fruit is pretty much all picked on the MLB level. Or rather, fallen to the ground and rotting.
Can we please stop platooning with Baker and Mather? Those guys aren’t very good.
Remember when the Cubs used to murder left handers?
@ josh:
The Cubs are 3-15 against lefty starters (h/t Brett)
I think DJ posted a new thread, but it’s too hard for him to say new thread. (dying laughing)