The Cubs have played 13 spring training games so far, giving most contenders to make the major league squad 15-20 PA. Here's a breakdown of each battle so far:
OQ = Opponent Quality
Catcher
Castillo (17 PA, 9.3 OQ): .267/.353/.467, 1 HR
Navarro (16 PA, 8.9 OQ): .214/.313/.429, 1 HR
Clevenger* (17 PA, 9.0 OQ): .333/.412/.333, 0 HR
*1 game started at 1B
Everyone has performed to expectations here. I'd expect Castillo to start, Navarro to backup (but start more than a normal backup), and Clevenger has a SHOT at being emergency catcher/corner infielder, depending on the breaks.
First Base
Rizzo (15 PA, 9.2 OQ, Italy): .286/.333/.429, 0 HR
Nelson (19 PA, 8.8 OQ): .333/.368/.833, 2 HR
Bogusevic* (23 PA, 8.7 OQ): .450/.522/.900, 1 HR
*3 games at RF, 1 at LF
Nelson is no real threat to make the team, he's the backup backup backup plan. He's a Quad-A guy. Bogusevic has more of a chance, but it's likely tied to if Soriano gets traded or if Sappelt is really not liked by the management. Bogusevic doesn't have the positional flexibility a guy like Lillibridge has, so he can really only play LF or RF.
Second Base
Barney (19 PA, 9.3 OQ): .278/.316/.333, 0 HR
Maysonet* (21 PA, 8.8 OQ): .158/.238/.368, 1 HR
Lillibridge** (10 PA, 9.0 OQ): .300/.300/.300, 0 HR
Watkins (19 PA, 8.5 OQ): .294/.368/.529, 0 HR
*4 games at SS, 3 at 2B, 2 at 3B, 1 at 1B
** 2 games at SS, 1 at 2B, 3B, and 1B
I put Maysonet and Lillibridge here because Castro plays 162. Lillibridge has a good shot at sticking, and Maysonet less so, but Watkins is probably deserving of the shot. Unlike Lilli or Edwin, Logan will probably be a part of the next contending Cubs team; however, I'd rather Watkins start every day in AAA this year and have Lillibridge be the backup.
Shortstop
No one is making the team besides Castro here, who is sitting out most of Spring Training.
Third Base
Valbuena (14 PA, 9.4 OQ): .417/.500/.833, 1 HR
Stewart: (Hurt, Again): nothing/nothing/nothing, 1 Injury
Lake* (24 PA, 8.7 OQ): .304/.333/.565, 1 HR
*1 game in CF
It's hard to tell if Lake is permanently moving to 3B, because Stewart's injury necessitates someone play there the days Valbuena has off. I'm inclined to believe that the OF is still being discussed with Lake, but injuries are just forcing the Cubs hand here. Valbuena should probably start at 3B, Stewart should probably be cut (he's not going to accumulate much value on our bench when/if he returns), and either Lillibridge or Clevenger should back him up. I suppose that Stewart could win the job if he returns and does well, but he's just about out of chances (with the Cubs, anyway).
Left Field
Soriano (16 PA, 9.2 OQ): .357/.438/.643, 1 HR
McDonald* (22 PA, 9.1 OQ): .150/.182/.350, 1 HR
*5 games at LF, 2 at RF, 1 at CF
McDonald has been given a ton of chances, and he's done little with them.
Center Field
DeJesus (16 PA, 9.1 OQ): .083/.313/.083, 0 HR
Sappelt (23 PA, 8.7 OQ): .174/.174/.348, 1 HR
Jackson* (18 PA, 8.7 OQ): .273/.444/.727, 0 HR
*4 games at LF, 2 at CF, 1 at RF
Sappelt has the inside track at the backup CF position, but Jackson is the better player. Hopefully, Soriano is traded, DeJesus moves to LF (where he's probably more comfortable), and Jackson starts in CF.
Right Field
Schierholtz (18 PA, 9.4 OQ): .400/.444/.667, 1 HR
Hairston* (20 PA, 9.2 OQ): .158/.200/.316, 1 HR
Chavez** (17 PA, 8.2 OQ): .375/.353/.688, 1 HR
* 3 games at CF and RF
**4 games at RF, 3 at LF
Hairston and Schierholtz are a lock to platoon at this position. Johermyn Chavez is prospect-y enough to hope he stays with the Cubs, but it certainly won't be at the major league level, it's just too crowded. In either case, no big deal.
The offensive unit kinda looks like this to me:
Configuration A:
C: Castillo/Navarro/Clevenger
1B: Rizzo/Clevenger
2B: Barney/Lillibridge
SS: Castro/Lillibridge
3B: Valbuena/Clevenger/Lillibridge
LF: Soriano/DeJesus
CF: DeJesus/Sappelt
RF: Schierholtz/Hairston
13 players
Configuration B:
C: Castillo/Navarro
1B: Rizzo/Lillibridge/Castillo
2B: Barney/Valbuena/Lillibridge
SS: Castro/Valbuena/Lillibridge
3B: Stewart/Valbuena/Lillibridge
LF: Soriano/Valbuena/Lillibridge
CF: DeJesus/Sappelt
RF: Schierholtz/Hairston
13 players
I think the first one is more likely. I actually like the idea of giving Castillo starts against lefties at 1B, because it'll save his legs and give a platoon advantage there. Plus, Navarro is a switch hitter, so he can still get platoon in those cases.
(dying laughing) (dying laughing)
I’d like for Lake to make the team. I don’t think any more time in the minors is going to help all that much. We shouldn’t really be worried about his service time either since he’s not likely a superstar. We need to figure out if this kid can play at this level or not. We can’t find out if he’s any good 1-2 years from now when we are trying to compete. Maybe the better scouting reports on pitchers, better instruction, and veterans will do him some good.
You always need to know who your 3rd backup catcher is.
@ JonKneeV:
I’m thinking the same thing. He’s probably as good as he’s going to get at this point and moving him to the mound just isn’t going to happen. Too late in his career for that and he still has some upside as a batter. Even if he doesn’t hack it as an everyday guy, he can play multiple positions.
@ WaLi:
I thought that was triple slash line (dying laughing)
@ dmick89:
Ditto.
I’m perfectly happy with swapping out Lake and BoguF7 for any combo of Clev Sappelt and Lillibridge. And I’d look at Watkins on the ML roster too if he continues to do well this spring.
wait i think i missed something – is vitters not even in contention for a roster spot?
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I’m not familiar with the rules for his local softball league.
@ EnricoPallazzo:
Not only is he not considered for a ML spot, he’s injured and hasn’t played in Spring Training this year. He’s a lock for AAA, though!
Not that I was a huge fan or anything, but whatever happened to Adrian Cardenas? He is still listed on MLB.com as a signed Cub, but haven’t heard anything about him.
Signed,
A huge Adrian Cardenas fan.
mikeakaleroy wrote:
He’s a minor league free agent. I have no idea where he is now, but it’s not in the Cubs’ camp.
I actually thought Cardenas got a raw deal with the Cubs, but alas…
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lake get similar treatment as Jackson or Vitters did last year — let him open in AAA, if he hits, move him up, but with an eye on sending him back down and pile up an aggregate of at least one year at AAA between the two stints. From a pedogogoical standpoint, that kind of makes sense. You bring him up to show him what he needs to learn to hit MLB pitching, then send him back down to work on those things in a low-pressure environment and against lesser competition.
After all, he’s just, what, 22 or 23? This team is going to suck with or without him. What’s the rush?
@ mikeakaleroy:
Adrian Cardenas has a brighter future than Josh Vitters.
@ dmick89:
At least we know where Vitters is… Can someone please put a fricken bell on Cardenas for chrissakes…
@ mikeakaleroy:
I put Carrie Muskat on the case. She’ll track him down.
uncle dave wrote:
I don’t think there’s any rush, but I also don’t think there’s any reason to just hold everybody back because the team sucks. If the Cubs have an opening that Lake can fill, I hope they use him. I don’t know if Lake is worthy of being promoted to the big league level. I tend to think that what you get with him is what you are going to get. He’s someone who has a lot of potential, but a couple holes in his game that will most likely prevent him from ever being a regular player. Using this year or even next to see what you have sounds like a pretty good idea just because they will suck. But again, I don’t know if he’s worthy of being promoted. I know I don’t want him held back just because the team sucks.
That’s just me though. The Cubs are a large market team and shouldn’t be pinching pennies in my opinion.
aside: http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/dale-sveum-tries-to-compliment-someone.html
@ dmick89:
For me, it’s not really a matter of pinching pennies, but rather of most effectively developing players. Although I have absolutely no basis in fact for thinking this way (thereby making this a perfect message board post), I feel like players develop by adapting to each level they are promoted to, and that adaptation typically takes a full season or more to accomplish. For instance, in the low minors that could mean adjusting to plus breaking pitches. Making the leap to the majors, more than anything it means having to deal with guys who can throw breaking pitches for strikes most of the time.
I think that it’s easier for players to grasp the concept of major league pitching if they’ve seen it, and I also think that the gap between, say, High-A and AAA is smaller than that between AAA and the bigs. What that means to me is that there’s definitely some utility in giving young players a cup of coffee or two before bringing them up full-time, and that it’s likely a good idea to give them the opportunity to learn things like pitch identification in an easier environment.
That’s mostly conjecture, and I know fuck all about developing baseball players, so take it for what little it’s worth. I do believe that there’s definitely value in thinking through pedogogy when training these kids, though. I coached track on the college and high school level for a few years way back when, and I defnitely saw the benefit of stripping out component parts of athletic tasks to help kids eventually master complex things like the discus or hammer throw. I can only imagine that baseball works in somewhat similar fashion.
Back to what was the original thrust of your post, though, I agree that the Cubs shouldn’t hold him back because the team sucks, I just think that if he’s not ready, there’s no reason to promote him straight from AA ball. If you have a team that’s contending, you have to think differently about it and go with your best available option at third base even if it impedes his development (see also: Strasburg, Stephen). But right now, you have the luxury of doing what’s best for the development of your youngsters.
@ mikeakaleroy:
Just as an update: I have asked Carrie, Jesse Rogers, and now The Cubs Reporter twitter account about the whereabouts of one Adrian Cardenas. So far my search has come up empty, but I have faith in the Twitters. Also, this has exploded to full blown obsession.
@ mikeakaleroy:
I WANT TO BELIEVE
@ mikeakaleroy:
I looked up “Adrian Cardenas” on Twitter and this must be him (dying laughing)
Adrian Cardenas
@funnyboy69_97
the boston celtics, cristiano ronaldo and my friends. nuff said
@ WenningtonsGorillaCock:
I found that same dude. He was quite confused by my illogical mancrush, but we’re going out next week.
@ uncle dave:
I am #COMMITTED to finding Adrian Cardenas.
/Cubs Slogan’d
Off topic question, but did anyone buy MLB the show 13, and if so, do you think it’s worth purchaseing if I already own 12?
@ Edwin
How DARE you change the topic away from Adrian!
Mucker posted yesterday that he had purchased it, but didn’t put any opinions in the post. Only that you got a free movie ticket with the game
@ uncle dave:
I agree completely, which is why I tried to highlight that I didn’t know whether he was deserving of the promotion or not. Based on my limited knowledge of him, I don’t see much to lose, but I obviously know very little compared to Thoyer. When I mentioned pinching pennies, I was mostly speaking about holding other prospects who might be ready back just because they aren’t good yet.
@ mikeakaleroy:
Good luck. Bring flowers.
@ Edwin:
Someone (Mucker?) mentioned yesterday or the day before they had purchased it.
Canada ———-> Obliterated by Italy in WBC today. No hits for Rizzo, but he walked and scored twice. Former Cubs prospect Alex Maestri started and got the win.
Cubs lose
I think I’ll try to watch that Mexico-Canada game.
New shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/top-ten-rejected-2013-cubs-slogans.html
aside: http://www.obstructedview.net/news-and-rumors/jed-hoyer-during-sabr-gm-panel.html