Hopefully the site is back up and running for good now. Our host, Dreamhost, had a DDoS attack on one of its data centers. This led to multiple extended outages at Obstructed View beginning on Monday for a few hours and then Thursday for much of the day. They have reportedly made some hardware changes, which will supposedly protect against this type of attack in the future. We'll see.
We're sorry for the inconvenience and hope it doesn't happen again. If it does, we will have to find an alternative as this is unacceptable to us. Thanks for being patient. I'm sure most of you were more patient than mb21 was getting. Let's hope you were.
Since we don't like to publish short posts, let's talk about Ryan Dempster and the idea of pitching one inning too long. This was a complaint last season and I'm sure after his start the other day we'll hear about it again if we haven't already.
First of all, batters perform better the more times they see a pitcher in a game. The first time through the order the pitcher has a distinct advantage. The second time through it's basically neutral and the third time the batters have an advantage. By the fourth time through the order the average reliever is better than all but maybe a few starting pitchers in baseball.
We also have to consider the inning. We can't really say Dempster pitched an inning too long if he didn't even pitch in the 7th inning. By that time the pitcher will be close to through the order 3 times so the batters have an advantage. If we go with 4 runs per 9 allowed for Dempster as a true talent we'd have to increase that since he'd be facing lineups the third time and maybe even the fourth time. We can increase his R/9 to 4.5 and maybe even higher. That's what we'd expect him to allow at that point in the game.
Last season Dempster entered the 7th inning 14 different times. He threw a combined 13.1 innings and allowed 10 runs. Ignoring the fact that it's only 13 innings, we also have to factor in that by that point in the game it's often a pitcher may come out of the game after allowing a baserunner or two. He may not even be on the mound when those runs score. He often isn't given the chance to finish the inning so there's chance for more runs scoring in fewer innings.
So where should we send our refund paperwork?
@ GBTS:
Alvin Yellon
From Sveum’s postgame comments, it appears that he is factoring the the stress level of earlier innings when determining whether or not to pull his starter. I suppose the data supports this. He’s said stuff like “those were pretty stress free 90 pitches, so i felt comfortable giving him 15-20 more”. That combined with the shititude of the bullpen, and I guess that’s why there have been so many late inning performances.
@ Recalcitrant Blogger Nate:
I’m perfectly fine with Garza pitching that deep into a game like that. I remember Maddux talking about this before and he said as a starter he wanted to go deeper when he had a big lead, but wanted to turn it over to his bullpen when the game was close. This is how it should be. In a close game the average reliever is better than all but a handful of starters. Those are the games you should be turning it over to the pen.
I would like Garza to keep pitching like this…
To be honest after 7 games we got 5 legit good ass starts one meh and one awful start.. If we keep pitching like that you never know what will happen right?
bubblesdachimp wrote:
And our record is still 2-5.
But if we had started Clevenger in all those games, we’d probably be 7-0. His CERA is rediculous.
@ bubblesdachimp:
I think we haven’t seen the last of 2-1 losses.
Mb21 said
!
(Dying laughing)
I understand what the record is.. I am just saying if you pitch that well you tend to win a lot more then you lose
WaLi wrote:
He’s got 3 R+RBI in only 2 starts. But I don’t know what his finger tape stats are.
Didn’t feel like checking the other thread, but last night both Reggie Golden and Dillon Maples got hurt.
@ jtsunami:
I thought Maples was already hurt?
@ bubblesdachimp:
I would say we’ve gotten 6 very good starts. The only start that hasn’t been was Maholm’s.
@ jtsunami:
What happened with Maples?
@ mb21:
I thought Volstads was alright. Nothing spectacular. But it could for sure be qualified that way.
@ mb21:
Yeah, Volstad’s was just okay at best
I forgot about Volstad. (dying laughing)
@ bubblesdachimp:
But you also have to score runs, and I don’t think we’ll be scoring many 8 run games (dying laughing)
But yeah, if we can keep having our starters pitch shutout baseball then we should win some.
@ WaLi:
Don’t worry WaLi, I’m sure the Cubs will have plenty of games where they score 8 runs on nothing but singles (dying laughing)
This presumes that this site was ever “fine” previously.
@ WaLi:
No i hear ya… Gotta score to win for sure.
From Arizona Phil:
The Cubs currently have a team .317 BABIP. This would naturally lead to a very high wOBA and lots of runs. Nope. wOBA under .300 (wRC+ under 90). Things are only getting worse for this offense. (dying laughing)
I’d also like to point out that Soto’s so-called slump is still good for league average offense. That’s despite a .182 BABIP. I’m all for Clevenger getting a couple starts per week, but I don’t find it comforting that the manager thinks he’s off to a terrible start.
@ Mish:
Everything’s under control, situation normal. We just had a small weapons malfunction, everything’s perfectly all right now. We’re fine, we’re all fine here now, thank you. How are you?
The starting pitching has been okay, but the bullpen hasn’t. If we’re not scoring runs (a la, the Giants of two years ago) then it takes not only awesome starting performances, but also a lights out bullpen and defense (a la the Giants of two years ago).
The Cubs are tied for 6th in starting pitching fWAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2012&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&players=0
But this offense just isn’t going to score enough to win many games. Factor in their defense and baserunning and it’s even worse. This is a bad team that has actually gotten off to a good start in some ways and they’re still only 2-5.
@ mb21:
The team could get this starting pitching all season and still come out under .500. I gotta believe that putting the better hitters on the team higher up on the order would help.
Anyone know what our baserunning stats are so far? I haven’t been following every game, but they seem to have had, from what I’ve heard, some success on the bases without costing the team too many outs. Or at least it has been better than what we saw this spring.
@ Berselius:
Who IS This? What’s your operating number?
Lahair has been having a good/lucky start. His BABIP is .556, and his K rate is 33%, which unfortunately isn’t much higher than his projection. He’s been finding holes so far, when he gets the bat on the ball.
@ Mish:
Boring conversation anyway
@ josh:
So far it’s not been that bad thanks in large part to Castro who has been worth .8 BRR so far according to Baseball Prospectus. Soto has been worth .4 and DeJesus .3. Soriano -.5 and Mather -.6. As a team they’ve been worth 1 run above average so far, but there’s no way in hell Soto keeps that up. That’s just a week. I expect they’ll be better on the bases than in past year, but still bad.
@ mb21:
Is BRR based on slugging percentage and steals? Still, we saw guys trying to steal virtually every time they were on base in Spring. That didn’t seem like a great idea, and it hasn’t played out in the regular season, from what I can tell. I’d be happy if Castro learned how to steal bases effectively. That’s the skill keeping him from being a leadoff guy, since he is a singles type hitter.
Bear Grylls is a flame thrower of a pitcher.
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/bear-grylls-lights-first-pitch-fire-throwing-dodger-135722840.html
Hmmm…
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/12/is-ron-swanson-based-on-simpsons-writer-john-swartzwelder_n_1421996.html
@ Mish:
I like how there is absolutely no reaction from the crowd. No one cares about first pitches. Especially not by the time you get to the fifth first pitch of the pregame.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/freddiecampion/10-pugs-who-look-like-things-5vii
Speaking of satanic bitches, my main bitch is awesome. She is just what you want out of a bitch. She’s a girl, so you don’t get the hassles of having a dog. However, she looks like a dog and even raises her leg when she pees like a dog.
Nice little terrier bitch looks like a tough little dog. Just took her to the groomer the other day so she looks all trim and doesn’t smell.
Thats gross Mish
I hope SK can figure out this article’s topic without a summary
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/matt-garza-legitimate-number-one-starter/
@ Mish:
I knew you worked at a bowling alley, Mish, but I didn’t know you dumped your main bitch on Facebook.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/9200210/Heartbroken-woman-drives-ex-boyfriends-car-into-bowling-alley.html
Suburban kid wrote:
*love*
@ Suburban kid:
Was this bowling alley below a studio apartment that was below another bowling alley?
/Grimey’d
Yes, I’m a pin monkey. Get over it.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/breaking-down-the-unwritten-rules/
preview/facepalm up
http://www.obstructedview.net/previews/series-preview-chicago-cubs-2-5-at-st-louis-cardinals-5-2-and-mini-daily-facepalm.html
@ mb21:
It’s hard for me to commit to that without seeing more of him. He’s very good. I envy the Nationals for getting him.