Now that Jeff Samardzija's season is over, let's take a moment to look back and express amazement that for about half the season Samardzija was the guy you most wanted to see on the mound for the Cubs. Well, assuming you weren't rooting for the Cubs reverse standings position. Here's his final numbers on the season.
| Player | GS | IP | H | K | BB | HR | BABIP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | fWAR | bWAR |
| Shark | 28 | 174.2 | 157 | 180 | 56 | 20 | .296 | 3.81 | 3.55 | 3.38 | 3.4 | 1.8 |
This sure was a nice surprise for the Cubs this year.
Here's another Cubs pitcher we recently enjoyed who seemed to suddenly turn things around.
| Player | GS | IP | H | K | BB | HR | BABIP | ERA | FIP | xFIP | fWAR | bWAR |
| Rich Hill (2007) | 32 | 195 | 170 | 183 | 63 | 27 | .271 | 3.92 | 4.32 | 4.00 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
I had remembered that Hill had a big problem with walks, but he was actually quite stingy with them across all levels as he shot up the minors. He walked 17 batters in 23 innings or so during his cup of coffee in 05, and posted a solid 3.53 BB/9 in 100 innings in 2007 but was most famous for shooting his mouth off after the Barret-Pierzynski fight. He followed that up with a 3.1 fWAR, 2.91 BB/9 season in 2007 after which the Cubs declared him to be one of The Untouchables. We all know what happened after that. He hurt his back, couldn't find the plate, and the rest was history (see also: 2011-2012 Randy Wells). Even if you believe in TRANSFORMATION, there's always the lurking fact that evolution did not select the throw 98 mph fastballs trait.
Samardzija has done a lot to improve his stock, but the projection systems have mixed opinions. Here is The Hardball Times's updated forecast ($) for the next five years for F7, as well as their final estimate of his current true talent level.
| Year | IP | ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | WAR |
| current | 4.43 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.1 | ||
| 2013 | 137 | 4.47 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 2014 | 137 | 4.54 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 2015 | 145 | 4.55 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.1 |
| 2016 | 140 | 4.60 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.0 |
| 2017 | 141 | 4.67 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | -0.2 |
ZiPS is a much bigger believer in Samardzija, pegging his current true talent level at a 3.83 FIP. However, it has been suggested that ZiPS weights current season projections too heavily. I don't have a BP subscription so I don't know what Samardzija's updated PECOTA is, but it's certainly better than the ~5.5 FIP as a reliever that it had projected going into the season.
Not surprisingly, Samardzija is a weird guy to project. I'd be interested to see what player comps PECOTA spits out. It's pretty unusual to see a guy be a shitty reliever for several seasons, then suddenly turn into a credible starter. Another Cubs pitcher that was being thrown around as a comparison earlier in the year was Ryan Dempster, but that's only a cursory comparison. Dempster had past history of being a solid starter, was injured, and then had some success as a closer before being turned into a starter. Samardzija, on the other hand had been so terrible that he probably would have been non-tendered in the offseason if the Cubs actually had a rotation with a shot at pitching the Cubs into respectability.
One of the worries that has been expressed by some around here is that the Cubs will sign Samardzija to an extension. I'm one of the Samardzija Transformation believers, so I'm not too worried that the Cubs would get burned by the deal. At least, relative to signing a contract with any player. But I think that Thoyer will wait. What's the hurry? Samardzija is only reaching his first year of arbitration. He'll be a little more expensive than most first time arb elgibles due to the deal the Cubs had to give him to sign him away from football, but he won't be that expensive. They can take a wait and see approach, and if he's still kicking ass and taking names next year, then they can drop some money on him to keep him around. Given the Cubs current payroll constraints over the next few years, it's not like this is a situation where they really need to take on some risk to save enough money to sign the next Xavier Nady.
From the last thread:
Not that I have a problem with manager/player sticking up for their own guy, but Leyland’s story about some guy “handing him a page of Sabermetrics” is pretty (dying laughing).
http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/tigers_justin_verlander_blasts_mvp_voters_who_arent_ready_to_vote_for_migue#When:09:39:03Z
Nady had a really great half of a year once.
@ Mish:
He’s right about Dimaggio/Williams, I think, but dead wrong about Cabrera. But yeah, what else are those guys going to say? “Eh, Miggy’s all right, but that Trout kid is a total player! And look how fat, Miggy is!”
I wouldn’t say Rich HIll was stingy with walks. HIs walk rate was horrible in 2002 (small sample) through 2004. It improved in 2005 and then went back to shit in 2008.
I believe Samardzija is better than I thought, but I don’t believe he’s as good as he pitched this season and most baseball research would agree with that. I wouldn’t sign him to an extension in part because of that, but also because he’s a pitcher in his prime with 3 years of club control left. Sure, it will be a little pricier than you’d like considering his salary pre-arbitration, but he turns 28 in January. He’s under club control at a discount through his age 30 season. I suppose a modest 3-year deal would be OK, but anything longer than that would be silly in my opinion. Especially when you factor in that it’s based on one good season.
@ mb21:
Yeah, becaus of the three years of control thing I don’t think they would offer him something big. Maybe something like 3/15 or 4/25, tops.
@ mb21:
I’m on my phone so I’m too lazy to check bref, but IIRC his minor league bb rates were something like 2.5-3 bb/9
It was 2.4 and 1.9 in the upper levels of this minors for the two years previous to 2007, do it’s not like he suddenly started throwing strikes.
Hill walked over 6 per 9 between 2002 and 2004.
@ Berselius:
I had this argument with GM several years ago. He was a big Rich Hill fan and obviously you had to love the strikeout rate, but the walk rate always bothered me. I was always just waiting for his walk rate to fall back to earth. He also hit a shitload of batters before 2005 and threw a bunch of wild pitches. He had control worse than Carlos Marmol and then suddenly it was good and it stayed good for awhile, but I never bought it. I don’t believe players just suddenly improve. I know it happens. It happens a lot, but more often than not it’s not real improvement and just better numbers.
Speaking of Marmol, he’s really turned his season around.
Using an arbitrary starting point of June 12th, Marmol has been very good (still lots of walks, but that’s Carlos Marmol).
mb21 wrote:
I would say so. Here is what you said about him before the season:
mb21 wrote:
(dying laughing)
/reads every word
Mish, you going to go to any of the Rays/Sox series next weekend? I’m probably going to tailgate the Saturday game.
@ WaLi:
To be completely honest, I don’t feel much different than that. I’d push Volstad and Alvin Yellon behind F7, but I still don’t think he’s very good. He’s probably a replacement level starter, but I’ve been wrong about him before.
@ WaLi:
@ mb21:
Going into his appearances in 06 and 07 I’d probably agree with you, but after the 2007 season that was three years of a good walk rate, half of it in the majors. I think his falling back to earth had more to do with a back injury fucking up his mechanics than the mirage being pierced.
I have no idea what his SIERA was in his last two months of 2006 though, so I can’t really say it would have gone either way (dying laughing).
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/20/dusty-baker-hospitalized-with-an-irregular-heartbeat/
@ GBTS:
I was 100% going to go if the games were relevant to the Rays…I don’t see that happening. I might go if the weather is nice but I’m not positive.
@ Berselius:
I always thought blaming the mechanics was a weak argument. He had the same mechanics he always had. It was only after the control problems that they altered the mechanics. Hill is just a guy who has had poor control throughout his career with the exception of a couple seasons. I don’t think there’s anything that’s surprising about this. Even a guy with poor control can “figure it out” for a couple seasons.
It’s really not much different than Carlos Zambrano who also had very poor control with the exception of 2 consecutive seasons (430 innings). Z’s control didn’t suddenly improve. He just had better results and we saw after 2005 that it returned to being poor. There were no mechanical issues or arm injuries that caused his control to be bad again and as best as I can remember, nobody ever claimed that.
@ Berselius:
@ mb21:
Replacement level isn’t bad in this rotation though (dying laughing)
I was actually just looking for the past community projections for Samardzija and came across that quote which I found humorous.
aside: http://www.obstructedview.net/aside/brett-jackson-has-more-strikeouts-than-darwin-barney.html
@ WaLi:
I was wrong on Samardzija. He’s good enough to be in a rotation, especially one this poor. I won’t be the least bit surprised if or when he does regress toward his career numbers though.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/20/elliot-johnson-played-catch-with-fans-in-the-parking-lot/
Cool story, bro.
I was wrong about F7, but I feel the same as MB about how he’ll regress.
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000058134/article/nflpa-reportedly-investigating-drew-rosenhaus
http://www.platoonadvantage.com/2012-articles/september/lingerie-eye-black-and-baseballs-double-standard.html
RC, you can just type “www.obstructedview.net” in the address bar to go to this website. You don’t have to get here by searching for “derek lee butt pics” on google, as you presumably have done twice today.
@ Berselius:
(dying laughing)
@ Berselius:
Besides, those pics are still in a vault somewhere, right?
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18408
bpro replaces kg with 9 people.
another aside: http://www.obstructedview.net/aside/baseball-sports-and-insensitivity.html
@ GW:
I’ve been wondering what the answer is to “how many people does it take to replace Kevin Goldstein?” I was thinking closer to less than 1.
@ mb21:
yeah, i was thinking maybe a belligerent intern.
@ Berselius:
That wasn’t me. I would’ve spelled Derrek’s name right.
@ GW:
They should just get Wyers drunk and let him tweet about prospects.
Cubs home record before today’s game is 36-38. They could still win five of the last seven to finish with a winning record at home, but the fact that they’re only a half-game on the Rockies for the #2 pick trumps that small victory…
Zonk is mad that the umps are wearing jackets?
@ josh:
No, he’s mad that the umps have jackets.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Is it because…..they aren’t Playing the Game the Right Way(TM)? I don’t get it.
I must have missed something. What’s wrong with jackets?
Although it is almost 70 out according to my Weatherbug.
Is Castillo a shitty catcher, or am I just biased by a small sample size over the last couple of games?
scott servais anal youtube
@ GBTS:
Is that what’s playing your iPod right now?
4Ks for an inning. Kerry Wood better watch his back.
Berken —> 4 K’s in an inning
@ josh:
I don’t read every post.
Meanwhile, Cueto just got his first K of the day against All-Star Bryan LaHair.
@ Rice Cube:
21Ks, here we come!
@ GBTS:
A lot of people assume this site is google, but they’re wrong.
Is anyone else’s Google broken today? I typed in a search like 15 minutes ago and nothing ever came up.
@ GW:
This site is clearly Twitter. #getitrightpeople
THIS RT @josh This site is clearly Twitter. #getitrightpeople
So that Reds TOOTBLAN was also (dying laughing)-worthy.
@ Rice Cube:
I don’t get how professional baseball players can be bad at sliding. That seems like something they should all be able to do perfectly every time. That boggles my mind.
Castro!
I see Castro is owning Cueto today. Except for that TOOTBLAN, of course.
Sveum had some pretty harsh words for Valbuerror. But his point was that the guy is being evaluated constantly for a job, and he can’t afford to make mistakes like that, for his own career’s sake.
Castro should try to steal home. It’ll be fun.
Who is surprised that we get a lead-off triple and then get zero runs? If you are, then you haven’t been watching the Cubs that closely.
@ josh:
The odds were definitely in the favor of suck.
Cubs lose.
@ Rice Cube:
Yeah, that was my thought as well.
White Sox ——–> new GM
I see Castro was picked off. That guy should be tied to the bag.
@ mb21:
If he was an Egyptian pharaoh, he’d be TOOTBLANkhamen.
Brett Jackson is good at not hitting baseballs.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Trying to figure out if it’s a confidence or mechanical issue. Just seems like he shouldn’t suck this much, but there it is.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/starlin-castro-will-end-up-with-4-years-of-arbitration.html