During the Winter Meetings the Cubs traded Tyler Colvin and DJ LeMahieu to the Rockies for Ian Stewart and Casey Weathers. Stewart would replace the departed Aramis Ramirez at 3rd base and would instantly be an upgrade defensively. That much we were sure of. Whether or not he would hit the ball much was something we'd learn throughout the season.
In 2011 Stewart only had 136 PA and managed a .208 wOBA, which is a wRC+ of 10. He had wRC+'s of 94, 93 and 100 previously so there was some reason to think he'd regress and be a productive hitter, though not anywhere close to the hitter Ramirez had been. The hope was he could return to his pre-2011 form at the plate and offer enough of a defensive improvement that the Cubs wouldn't even notice Ramirez's absence.
That didn't happen. By the time April ended Stewart had just a .506 OPS so it was beginning to look like there was little chance he'd rebound as we hoped. Stewart hit .201/.292/.335 in 202 plate appearances this season. His wOBA was .265 and his wRC+ only 59. DRS and UZR both had him slightly better than average and FRAA a bit below average.
His average WAR (rWAR, fWAR, WARP) was about -0.3.
It's safe to say that he was a bit unlucky at the plate. Two years in a row his BABIP has been absurdly low though his line drive rate has been equally low. He hit more balls ont he ground this year than ever before.
At the beginning of August, I wrote this about the trade that brought Stewart to the Cubs:
This is a trade the Cubs would like to have a do over on. It's not one of those trades they'll regret forever. Tyler Colvin has proven he belongs on an MLB roster although he may not be an everyday starter. Factoring in the salary you'd obviously prefer the left handed hitting outfielder who is working at league minimum to someone like Stewart. Add in the fact that Lemahieu might actually provide some depth to an organization at some point and the secondary players involved in the trade make this an obvious win for the Rockies. Not a huge win, but a win.
Since then all Colvin has done is continue to hit. He had a wOBA over .400 in August and he had more PA that month than any other. Colvin isnt' a superstar and as I said, the Cubs won't regret this forever, but considering Brett Jackson's miserable start to his career, Colvin would sure come in handy for this team.
Stewart will be eligible for arbitration for the 3rd time and has another year of eligibility after that since he was a super 2. He earned $2.24 million this season so would be in line for a small raise. A month ago I'd have said there was little chance the Cubs would tender him a contract, but Josh Vitters has been about as disappointing as one could have imagined.
It's possible the Cubs opt to go with Luis Valbuena at 3rd instead of Stewart, but I won't be surprised at this point if the Cubs do go ahead and tender Stewart a contract. He won't get more than $2.5 million and since the Cubs have so few options at 3rd base at the moment it's much more likely than it was a month or two ago.
Colvin at Coors (200 PA): 1.051 OPS
Colvin away from Coors (193 PA): .701 OPS
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I don’t care much about home/road splits. Next year he’ll probably hit worse at Coors and better on the road. The bottom line is that Tyler Colvin has been good this year. There’s no way to look at it other than that.
Colvin’s wRC+ (121) is higher than any Cub other than Rizzo (124). Dave Sappelt (122) also, but he has so few PA.
Colvin isn’t as good as he’s played this year and the Cubs aren’t going to regret this forever, but he has had a good season and the Cubs wish they hadn’t made this trade.
do you think Stewart was as bad as he played this year? I think he’s better than Vitters, if he could get healthy, but that may be impossible.
Colvin is a creation of that park.
wait are you saying that vitters’ OPS+ of -1 is disappointing?
@ mb21:
I don’t know. Wouldn’t it make more sense to compare him to DeJesus (he probably still wins). Tyler can’t play 3rd. In terms of straight value, yes, but they had extra outfielders and lacked a 3B.
The only two parks I pay attention to H/R splits are Coors and PEtCo because the run-scoring environment is, to my mind, significantly altered in both parks.
Brett Jackson has an ISO of .202 and a BABiP of .311…and a .291 wOBA. SMH.
@ josh:
I think he’s better than he was this year and I also think he’s better than Vitters. Then again, I think Valbuena, Mathers, Cardenas and probably a couple others in the organization are too.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I was just looking at that too and noticed his ISO was higher than Rizzo’s.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Maybe he should try not striking out.
/obvious
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
If that was true all players for the Rockies would have an OPS 300 points lower on the road. Yes, it’s an offensive ballpark, but wRC+ accounts for that and he has a 121 wRC+. There is no denying that Colvin has had a good season this year. You can try to qualify it any way you want, MO, but it doesn’t change anything.
His true talent is probably closer to league average at the plate and he obviously has high upside.
Besides, he’s at his peak age right now and a couple years ago had a 114 wRC+. It’s not like his wRC+ is that different from that season in Chicago.
wonder how true this is
http://cubbiescrib.com/2012/09/15/theo-epstein-endorses-dale-sveum/
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I think they’re basing their opinion of him on how he handles younger players. This year was doomed anyway. Didn’t it seem less weird this year with Sveum over Quade?
@ josh:
Less stupid nicknames.
@ mb21:
Rockies, as a team:
At Coors: .858 OPs
Away from Coors: .666 OPS
@ EnricoPallazzo:
I’m not sure that Vitters and Jackson really fit the author’s narrative.
@ Rice Cube:
Because of Quade everytime I see Aisle424′s name I prounounce it (in my head) Aisley.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
True. I would bet Sveum is back next year, unless he’s doing some really stupid shit behind the scenes. It makes no sense to blame this season on him.
Orakpo ——-> donezo for the year
@ josh:
Agreed. Even though I don’t think much of him as a manager.
@ Berselius:
Carriker, too. That defense just took a huge blow.
Berselius wrote:
Corrected
SK wrote:
@ Suburban kid:
You obviously haven’t watched that terrible GEICO commercial half a million times.
Cubs Convention has been moved to the Sheraton this year, for the zero of us who care about Cubs Con
@ Berselius:
I care, but not enough to actually pay for it (dying laughing)
This is a cool idea:
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/17/one-game-play-in-how-about-starting-with-your-closer/
@ Berselius:
My favorite part of those commercials is that they ALWAYS have to include his name somewhere prominent, since no one more than 30 miles from the Potomac knows who the hell Brian Orakpo is.
I’m enjoying MO’s epic twitter rant against Chicago Sports Media.
You guys are making a profit?! Awesome. Do I get a cut for the incisive commentary I provide?
It’s been confirmed that this is not a photoshop: http://t.co/C3OXijlI
http://www.flickr.com/photos/james_in_to/7997101156
@ SVB:
Yeah, get in line. You think those comics are cheap and easy to make!??
If Escobar did that, he should be suspended without interpose delay and for a long time.
@ Berselius:
Why was it moved?
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
He’ll argue he meant it in the sense of “You are a pussy,” though. Still, probably against the rules to have obscenities painted on your face, either way.
Neyer chimes in: http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/9/17/3349144/yunel-escobar-and-the-offending-eye-black
Yeah, this would be the one time I’d fully support the commissioner acting on his own to suspend a player, which means there’s not a chance in hell he does it.
@ mb21:
It’ll be even more galling when whatever punishment that gets handed down is less than Ozzie got for saying something mildly approving of Fidel Castro.
@ mb21:
More space.
They’re professional jocks. He probably lost a bet with his teammates or something. Why the hell does this matter?
I’m well aware this won’t be a popular opinion around here, but what Yunel Escobar writes on his eyeblack just isn’t that big of an issue.
pfd wrote:
(dying laughing) pretty much.
I mean I realize that it probably isn’t the smartest thing to be doing, and that the MLB needs players to realize they’re projecting an image and everything else. But at the end of the day this kind of stuff will ALWAYS be the product of a bunch of guys hanging out in a locker room.
I doubt Yunel Escobar hates gays. He probably lost a bet. Let’s not all lose our shit.
Not losing my shit. But it’s a slur, and if Bud is going to get heavy-handed with Ozzie (who, let’s remember was also suspended for calling Mariotti this exact slur) for saying something about Castro, then this needs to be dealt with that much more severely. It’s a slur, it’s highly offensive, and it should be dealt with by the commissioner.
@ pfd:
Normally I’d agree, but MLB has taken this stance that these guys are role models and that their actions greatly affect the children. It’s bullshit of course, but as long as MLB continues to do this then I think they have an obligation to do something about behavior like this.
MLB can’t have it every which way they want to. Either these guys are role models and since we actually care whether or not they used performance enhancing drugs, MLB has already established that they are role models.
I guess I’d argue that he wasn’t calling anyone a faggot, which whereas Ozzie called someone a faggot directly. Regardless, I definitely agree that the MLB can’t have it both ways. If they’re held up as role models (newsflash: they shouldn’t be) then they should act accordingly. I hadn’t thought of it that way.
It’s not so much that players are or should be role models, but that his actions are visible to everyone, in uniform, and even during a game. If the MLB doesn’t take action, they kind of give the impression that they’re OK with this sort of thing.
Also, I can guarantee that if he put a racist slur on his eyeblack, justice would be swift and severe.
I see my favorite oddball, Aaron Cook (since Moyer’s release, anyway) is pitching today. Fun.
@ Rizzo the Rat:
He’d have been suspended already, and probably for the rest of the season. But, hey, this only make fun of teh gheys so we can take our time!
@ Rizzo the Rat:
I noticed Szymborski tweeted the other day that Cook’s ERA and xFIP are almost identical now (~5.16), despite the loud declarations that he had “broken” sabermetrics.
@ josh:
I don’t Twitter and I now regret it.
(dying laughing)
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Cook is being out-Cooked by his opponent Cobb (0 K, 0 H through 4).
Cook, by contrast, managed to strike out the first batter he faced (and no one since). That’s 4 innings, 1 strikeout and 2 hits for the two teams combined.
I was wondering today what it might take to make the Cubs compete in 2013, and if it’s even possible financially. (I realize after Theo’s comments that this most likely won’t happen, but it’s still interesting to think about)
Looking at position players, it looks like they will look pretty similar in 2013, with a gaping hole at 3B.
C: Castillo
1B: Rizzo
2B: Barney
SS: Castro
3B: ???
LF: Soriano
CF: BJax
RF: DeJesus
Would it be possible, with the Cubs being one of the worst run scoring teams this year, to add a guy at 3B, keep the rest the same, and field a decent offense? I guess what I’m asking is for someone to let me know in terms of WAR if this team would have any chance to compete with an upgrade at 3B (Youkilis?)
I realize this is only half the battle, and the pitching staff is still a HUGE problem.
@ pfd:
I Don’t Know is on third?
pfd wrote:
I don’t know what WAR says, but I’m going with the Magic 8-Ball:
@ pfd:
These are the guys available for 2013:
Miguel Cairo (39)
Eric Chavez (35)
Mark DeRosa (38)
Brandon Inge (36)
Maicer Izturis (32)
Jose Lopez (29)
Placido Polanco (37) – $5.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
Mark Reynolds (29) – $11MM club option with a $500K buyout
Scott Rolen (38)
Ty Wigginton (35) – $4MM club option with a $500K buyout
David Wright (30) – $16MM club option with a $1MM buyout
Kevin Youkilis (34) – $13MM club option with a $1MM buyout
I don’t think it’s gonna happen.
http://deadspin.com/5943994/stephen-a-smith-thought-an-article-about-him-in-the-onion-was-real
(dying laughing)
(dying laughing)
@ pfd:
It’s not at all likely. The Cubs would need several players to overachieve while probably one of them would have to put together a legitimate MVP type season. The rest would have to reach expectations.
The 2013 Cubs are, if you can believe it, going to be worse than the 2012 team. They won’t have Dempster and Maholm for 4 months and will instead be replaced by lesser pitchers.
The Cubs need to spend money. I don’t think they need to buy a championship next season, but they need to start adding free agent pieces to this team that are more valuable than a Maholm or DeJesus.
The Cubs have no pitching in the majors or minors. The team is not getting good any time soon.
@ mb21:
That’s kind of what I assumed. It’s disappointing, but hopefully will pay off in the long run. When exactly do they think their title window will open up?
It’s not as if Soler and Almora are ready to come to Wrigley anytime soon. The only way this team is going to compete is going to be to spend some cash, whether it’s now or in two years.
@ mb21:
If the Cubs make some sort of big splash, it would probably involve trading/releasing Soriano or DeJesus and getting on outfielder. Maybe they grab a catcher, but nothing there looks great except maybe McCann, if the Braves don’t pick up his option. The big outfield splash target is obviously Josh Hamilton, followed by either of the Upton brothers. They’d have to trade for Justin Upton, but he’s still young, has big upside, and a relatively reasonable contract. I said a month or so ago that I’d be totally okay with giving up a package centered around Baez for him, the guy is the real deal.
Michael Bourn is also on the Market, who could probably still be underrated (defense)
@ mb21:
Agreed. I think PFD makes a good point about 3b (and SP) being a good place to start spending that money. But the free agent pool that RC notes is slim at best. I don’t think David Wright is leaving NY, and the others aren’t exactly making me want to clear my summer plans to hang around Wrigley.
@ PFD:
In two years the starting pitching crop seems better:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-mlb-free-agents.html
This coming offseason it’s basically Zack Greinke and then a drop-off…
The problem with all those FAs is that they’re so old. Cubs need them to still be stars in 2-3 years, which is why someone younger like the Uptons make more sense. Hamilton would just be coming down from a higher peak.
I still can’t believe the Cubs got Vizcaino for Paul Fucking Maholm and Reed Motherfucking Johnson
Berselius wrote:
That said, meathead Chicago fans would fucking hate B.J. Upton (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
I hope they sign Brandon McCarthy, just for his twitter account. It adds +10 iWAR
@ Rice Cube:
God that’s depressing. All of those guys will be on the downslope of their careers or renewed by their current teams by then. Pitching is getting more and more difficult to buy and the fact that the Cubs have NONE in house is cause for concern.
@ PFD:
Honestly, I don’t know what the Cubs are thinking with regards to when they will be legitimate contenders. They were signed to 5-year contracts and will either be extended because the Cubs are contending or VERY near it or they will be fired at the end of those 5 years. I have no idea which of those is most likely, but I don’t find contending any time in the next 4 years very likely.
This team has no pitching in the minor leagues and the impact bats are years away and a whole hell of a lot can go wrong between now and the time they get to the big leagues.
@ Berselius:
Yeah, I was hoping for it before he got hit by that liner. That sucked.
@ 26.2cubfan:
I believe both Theo and Jed had intimated that the Cubs’ path was not going to be heavily through free agency, and one of the reasons why was because of the weak crop and the fact that most teams would lock down the good ones anyway.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Ozzie was punished by his own team, not MLB. I can’t find any evidence he was suspended for the Mariotti thing, either.
How many teams have been successful at rebuilding? We hear about rebuilding all the time, but the successful team that comes to mind was the 2003 Marlins. After 1997 they traded a lot of very good players for a lot of talent. They ended up contending with that group they got in return. Once they did they traded everyone away again.
The Pirates, Royals and Orioles have been rebuilding for two decades. I don’t think the O’s are anywhere near as good as they’ve played this year, but maybe, just maybe we can add them to the list that includes the Florida Marlins.
The Cubs aren’t rebuilding in the typical manner other teams have. The Cubs didn’t have top tiered talent to trade away. Instead, their rebuilding is centered around drafting and acquiring young talent in other ways (Cuban players). This is most similar to what the Rays have done. It also requires a great deal of luck. You have to hit it big with the players you do go after and not miss on nearly as many as most teams do.
When you think about it, if we knew this was going to be the Cubs plan moving forward they should have hired Friedman who had success doing exactly what the Cubs are trying to do. Except, and this is important, the Rays were able to take advantage of acquiring multiple first round picks and not having a spending limit in the draft. No such luck for the Cubs.
It’s not untrue to say the Cubs are trying to do something that no team has ever done before. They’re trying to rebuild from scratch and are forced to work with in a system in which amateur talent isn’t as easily acquired.
This is why the Cubs have to spend on free agency. They could be waiting a long damn time to contend if they don’t.
@ mb21:
I’m hoping they throw money at Greinke (no draft pick surrendered) and whoever else doesn’t cost a draft pick. It pretty much has to be pitching, because all the other position guys look unappealing this coming offseason.
Rizzo the Rat wrote:
So it’s unlikely MLB punishes Escobar.
Also, WTF Peyton.
@ Rice Cube:
He’s a great example of a guy they should go after, but probably won’t. I really don’t understand. Why do you have to have a core of talent BEFORE you spend on free agency? Why can’t you build the minor leagues while also spending on free agents? Theo has said they’re going at this on multiple fronts, but they really aren’t. Not unless they consider DeJesus and Maholm to be attacking the free agent market.
@ mb21:
I feel like with money coming off the books they’d have the freedom to go after a guy like Greinke, but they might be waiting for the 2014 offseason crop I linked to earlier. I don’t really know. Most of the names on both the 2013 and 2014 lists are of the “why even bother” variety, at least in my opinion.
Aaron Cook hasn’t disappointed me tonight: 6 innings and still just 1 strikeout. Old reliable he is.
Quite a foot in mouth moment for Romney released tonight.
@ PFD:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/17/romney-faults-those-dependent-on-government/
What the hell is wrong with this guy?
@ Rice Cube:
I don’t know why people keep poking fun at Romney. Since when did it become politically correct to make fun of retards?
@ Rice Cube:
My problem with Romney comes from his idiotic need to change who he is depending on the audience. If its a national audience, he acts (or tries to act) like a compassionate guy. Behind closed doors, he’s trying to impress a bunch of rich guys with tough rhetoric. To be honest, I don’t know which side of him he even believes in, and I doubt he does ether.
The main problem for Romney is that this is a pretty big gaffe this late in the game. I’m not an Obama fan, but he’s probably gonna be the guy for 4 more years. Romney has run a terrible campaign.
I’m no fan of Obama either. To me, Obama is just less of a clown than Romney. Among the GOP candidates in the primary Romney was less a clown than any of the others with the exception of Ron Paul and I have no idea why he was even hanging around the other clowns. I know Paul would have no chance of winning a general election and I disagree with him about a lot of things, but I’d easily vote for him over the two running.
As it is, I have no incentive to vote.
@ mb21:
Pirates are going to be so tired when they play at home tomorrow (dying laughing)
Rain is on its way out of Chicago for anyone who gives a shit.
I don’t think this was ever going to be a close election in terms of the electoral college anyway, but yeah, Romney has ran a disastrous campaign.
Someone should probably start a thread on the forum for election discussion. (dying laughing)
@ Rice Cube:
They’re actually going to play this game?
@ mb21:
Bruce Miles @BruceMiles2112
10:40 p.m. first pitch. Not kidding. #Cubs
Apparently because Pittsburgh is a wild-card contender and doesn’t come back to Chicago for the rest of the season they have to get this thing in.
@ mb21:
We shouldn’t be discriminating against robot-Amercians
@ Berselius:
Like the new pic.
I went up to that game last thursday and had a great time. Offense still needs to get it going, but you had to love seeing the pass rush come back to life.
Re: Escobar
If Darwin Barney wrote “Fuck you” on his eye black, he’d be punished. Homophobe or not, slur or not, he wrote something you can’t say on television on his eye black. Where is the FCC in this? I don’t care, but I don’t really want to see guys coming out with “Fuck yous” not because I don’t know they’re jock assholes, but because I like to maintain that veil of illusion and prefer not to think of them as human beings at all, if that makes sense.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/17/blue-jays-issue-statement-regarding-yunel-escobar/
Yunel’s in trouble.
@ mb21:
Peeps got jokes.
If you give up multiple hits in a game, but only to one player, is it still a one-hitter?
/Cubs/Barney
(At least one team and one player showed up last night.)
@ Rice Cube:
Yunel Escobar is another case of addition by subtraction. The Blue Jays would be best served both on and off the field by suspending him the rest of the season and letting Omar Visquel play out his career by starting everyday. Then in the off season you see what you can do. Sure, for this season you are losing 120 points of OPS, but Visquel is only playing once a week, so it’s not like he’s been able to establish a rhythm at the plate. Since Toronto in on the Race to the Top, I don’t think the OPS hit matters one iota.
@ mb21:
Done. It’s here.
@ Suburban kid:
@ SVB:
he’s one of those guys who’s been a rollercoaster of talent for whatever reason.
http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/18/photos-of-the-day-great-moments-in-empty-wrigley-field/
@ josh:
It’s strange. Every other season he’s damn good. Even seasons like this he’s still productive, but nowhere near as good as he is in alternate seasons.
@ mb21:
It’s much more of dramatic change than what Soto went through. I don’t have any data on it, but if Soto is any indication, the trend may head toward the bottom end, with the peaks being the outliers.
Cliff Lee is 4th in the NL in fWAR and has a losing record. Man, the Phils suck.
new shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/commentary-and-analysis/the-cubs-will-probably-avoid-losing-100-games.html