We're very close to the time of the season at which the Cubs guarantee that Anthony Rizzo, Brett Jackson and other prospects who could be called up won't become super-two players. While the first game after the all-star break happens to be that date this season, it's highly unlikely any prospect called up now would qualify. So who are the Cubs going to call up over the coming weeks?
Anthony Rizzo is the obvious one. He's probably only days away from being called up. Rizzo has boarded a plane and has left the Iowa Cubs to head to Chicago. While Bryan LaHair still has a .384 wOBA, he's slumped in June thanks to only a 7% walk rate and a strikeout rate over 36%. We should see LaHair bounce back. June's stats are a very small sample size and it would be silly to evaluate what to do with LaHair based on his worst month of the season.
When Rizzo comes up, LaHair has to go somewhere else. It will be rather easy finding LaHair a home in the outfield. Alfonso Soriano has been impressive this season all things considered. He's posted a .342 wOBA (111 wRC+), +8 UZR and 2.0 fWAR. Total Zone doesn't think as much of his defense and he's been worth only .9 rWAR. Still, if you'd told me on Opening Day that Soriano would be worth a win by this point in the season I'd have said no way.
The Cubs would obviously like to trade Soriano and his remaining 2+ years of club control, but it's not going to be easy. He has a surplus trade value of -$24.25 million so the Cubs will have to send at least that much to get anyone to talk. More than likely they'll have to send a lot more than that because I imagine he'll be viewed as a DH and therefore have less future value. The Cubs have already tried to trade Soriano and failed so I'm going to assume they fail again. Despite that, the Cubs still have other places in the OF LaHair can go.
David DeJesus has been league average at the plate, but below average defensively according to both UZR and Total Zone. His rWAR is .5 and his fWAR is .4. It's hard to image the Cubs replace him though I could see him traded at the deadline. My guess is the Cubs shift him to CF and put LaHair in RF where he's recently played.
It's a waste of time talking about the other outfielders in depth. Reed Johnson has been better than Joe Mather and Tony Campana and that really says it all. There's a place for LaHair in the outfield and the Cubs will find room for him. That place is likely to be RF.
If you're wondering what we can expect from Rizzo at the big league level there's really only one answer: who the fuck knows? Going back to 2009 we get these numbers for Rizzo.
2009 A: .390 wOBA, 144 wRC+, 287 PA
2009 A+: .357, 120, 229 PA
2010 A+: .363, 123, 135 PA
2010 AA: .361, 120, 467 PA
2011 AAA: .433, 149, 413 PA
2011 MLB: .248, 59, 153 PA
2012 AAA: .466, 180, 278 PA
Rizzo has been consistently above average in his minor league career and damn good at times. We can definitely expect some regression as he moves up to MLB and simply because it's unlikely he really was a .466 wOBA hitter in AAA. The expectations for this kid are through the roof. Of all the Cubs prospects I've followed in my years of being a Cubs fan, I can't think of another one whose expectations were so high. Mark Prior comes the closest, but I'm not even sure his were as high as Rizzo's are right now. There might have been higher expectations for Corey Patterson, but other than him I can't think of a single player.
The better question might not be what we can expect from Rizzo, but whether or not Rizzo can live up to the expectations others have for him? The answer to this question is almost always no. If he struggles in his first 150 plate appearances how many fans are going to be looking at his 300 PA sample at the big league level and completely ignoring what he did at the minor league level? It's obviously stupid. Rizzo is a very good ballplayer and should be productive player for the Cubs for several years. But the big league team sucking and Rizzo's performance in the minors has placed unreasonable expectations on him.
You have to look hard to find something in Rizzo's performance that stands out in a negative way. The only thing that does stand out is that his walk rate was down to 7.9%. it had been at 10 or so since 2009 so it's not a huge drop, but it's a noticeable one.
Rizzo won't be the only one the Cubs call up this season. Brett Jackson is the next obvious choice, but that muddies the water a bit for Bryan LaHair. If Jackson comes up and takes over in CF, DeJesus returns to RF and LaHair is without a position. The Cubs could trade Soriano or DeJesus and that would change things, but right now I just don't see Jackson coming up. The Cubs are going to put LaHair in the outfield (probably RF), move DeJesus to CF and keep Soriano unless some team really wants him. We'll talk more about Jackson next month as I think his call-up is delayed a bit to see if the Cubs can clear some space in the outfield.
Third base has been a black hole of suck this year for the Cubs. Ian Stewart, Luis Valbunea and the transformative season of Joe Mather have hit like they belong in AAA.
Josh Vitters has hit .286/.336/.481 for AAA Iowa in 283 plate appearances this year. While his OPS is just a bit above average for the league, he is still quite young at 22. He has more to work on and will never be all that great a player. He doesn't walk much, he has no speed whatsoever (19 SB in 1953 PA, 18 CS, 7 triples) and questionable enough defense that has led to him seeing some action at 1st base already. His walk rate will never allow him to get on base much higher than his batting average so he'll be relying on his ability to hit for power. HIs career slugging is just .445 and it's only .479 in the hitter friendly PCL. He's hit 58 home runs in his career and has 113 doubles in nearly 2000 plate appearances.
Despite that, he might not be any worse than the three the Cubs have run out there all season long. He might even be a bit better. He's played well enough at AAA and thanks to the black hole at 3rd base I see no reason why the Cubs shouldn't call him up in the near future. He's someone I wouldn't even worry about becoming a super two player because I think it's unlikely he sticks on MLB roster for the next 2+ seasons. More than likely he'll be sent back down at some point so I see no risk in calling him up.
One thing I noticed with Vitters is that Fangraphs has his walk rate at 5.7%, but they include intentional walks. I noticed this after looking at his page on Statcorner and his UBB% (NIBB% is what I call it) is 4.3%, which is the same as last season and lower than 2010. Statcorner also has a few discipline numbers. His swing% is 52.9%. MLB average is about 45.5%. His Mis% (swing and miss) is 20.3% while MLB average is 18.5%. His TkS% (called strike) is 25.9% while MLB average is 31%. MLB average isn't necessarily PCL average, but it's probably not that far off. Vitters is going to swing the bat. A lot. His swing and miss rate right now is higher than what the MLB average is, but it might be right about average in the PCL.
Regardless of the numbers, it's not like any of the other 3rd baseman is making a claim to the position and Vitters is who Vitters is going to be.
DJ, it’s over 30% now, but we have to expect regression. What someone does in AAA is no different than what they do at the MLB level with regards to true talent level. Always expect regression. I don’t know what it will be, but I’ll bet $100 he doesn’t sniff 1000 plate appearances if his strikeout rate is over 35%. The bottom line for Jackson is that a strikeout rate similar to what he’s done at Iowa isn’t going to allow him to succeed at the big league level. He’s not a guy who has a ton of power like Dunn and Reynolds and do. HIs best bet for having much value with a high strikeout rate like that is to be like Drew Stubbs who Jackson has drawn comparisons to. Solid power, above average speed, above average discipline.
I get to see Chris Archer tomorrow night. Also seeing Cobb, Moore, Hochevar, Bruce fucking Chen and some other sorry Royals starter.
@ mb21:
Archer looked good in his debut, or at least what bits I saw. Hopefully it’s a riveting series (dying laughing)
Trout or Kemp for franchise corner stone?: http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=8083716
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Mike Trout is white, so the answer is obvious. (dying laughing)
Trout
RT @MLB_PR: Free agent OF Marlon Byrd has received a 50-game suspension after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance.
Al acknowledged on his own blog that he read Chuck’s 2005 post..in 2005: http://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2005/5/5/21355/80846#1873000
@ Mish:
I hope he pitches well, but I want to see some runs scored. It’s hotter than hell and will be for the next few days so I don’t want to be sitting there watching 1-0 games.
@ Mish:
Not shocking. That guy showed up to ST last year looking like a pro body builder.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I didn’t read any of the articles and I’ll say what I did in an earlier thread. Similar titles doesn’t mean plagiarism. Especially not when it’s something as popular as they were doing. What I think is pathetic is that Al deleted the comment. Let others see it and make up their own mind, but Alvin had to delete it. Without reading the articles that’s all I can say and I have no interest in reading the articles. (dying laughing)
@ Mish:
That’s depressing.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
He’s always looked like that. He just got caught this time. I’m curious how many times someone uses without being caught. I know it’s quite high.
@ mb21:
Yeah, the illogical response is certainly the most galling part. But he swore up and down in that thread that he’d never seen Chuck’s original post, and there on his own blog is proof that it’s a lie, and yet he banned Chuck. (dying laughing)
my gut reaction is that patterson was more hyped, though it has to be rizzo since: a) he’s been hyped by three separate fanbases b) he’s spent more time in the minors and c) minor league tracking is so ubiquitous these days
@ mb21:
It has to be high, otherwise guys wouldn’t be continuing to use the stuff.
Hey Ryno, i didn’t know your dick was named “Angelo.”
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/angelo-gumbs-new-york-yankees-second-base-prospect-fangraphs-scouting-report-video/
@ mb21:
The true secret to the Ranger’s success?
The drug Byrd tested positive for is an off-cycle natural testosterone booster that is marketed as a breast cancer medication, so he’s for sure been using anabolic steroids. To put this another way, this is a drug steroid users use to prevent getting moobs and raisin balls. Those are the only benefits a man could possibly hope to see from these drugs.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
I doubt Al reads any other blog unless it’s something people send him that is calling Al names. That was also 2005 and I’m assuming Chuck’s piece wasn’t all that memorable.
@ GW:
Good point. Relative to prospect hype it was Patterson, but Rizzo has received more. Then again, Josh Vitters has probably received more than Patterson. I remember when Patterson came up and had his first PA. It was made to seem like that was the day the Cubs organization went from shit to awesome. I’d never seen that before and I haven’t seen it since. It was almost like a holiday. Something major happened. It was weird.
Mercurial Outfielder wrote:
Exactly. I wouldn’t even know where to begin to guess, but I’d say it’s at least 10 times you don’t get caught for every time you do. Probably a lot higher than that.
Those who have random drug tests in their workplace might shed some light on this if they’re using drugs regularly that don’t stay in the system for too long. The cycles for steroids makes it even more likely that people are still using in high numbers. Unlike other drugs, you don’t use steroids every day. It’s used in cycles.
I wasn’t as in tune back in 2001-2; what was the hype surrounding Prior? I mean that had to be the most, right?
@ Mish:
Sad, but unsurprising, given his longtime association with Victor Conte.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Manny got caught with something that was supposed to reinvigorate your libido after steroids, wasn’t he? Or maybe it was the same sort of thing.
@ josh:
Manny was taking a female fertility drug, but the anticipated effect is the same, i.e. the stimulation of the production of natural testosterone as one is coming off a steroid cycle.
If Byrd is suspended and on the restricted list…does this mean the Cubs save money?
/silver lining
Anyway, I cast my ASG ballot:
American League
1B – Konerko, Paul
2B – Cano, Robinson
SS – Andrus, Elvis
3B – Moustakas, Mike
C – Wieters, Matt
DH – Ortiz, David
OF – Hamilton, Josh
OF – Jones, Adam
OF – N/A
Write-in – Mike Trout
National League
1B – Votto, Joey
2B – Uggla, Dan
SS – Lowrie, Jed
3B – Wright, David
C – Ruiz, Carlos
OF – Bourn, Michael
OF – Braun, Ryan
OF – McCutchen, Andrew
Write-in – N/A
I think Prior was a bigger deal. I remember they did one of the first segment on PTI about why dont the Cubs call him up after he had a 2 homer game at iowa (it might have been just one) I dont think anyone can ever top the prior hype.
Ventura hitting Youk second in his White Sox debut (vs. Liriano)
@ ACT:
Wieters over Napoli?
Yeah, the more I think about it the more I think Prior was the most hyped prospect we’ve seen. I remember his debut and it wasn’t even that exciting. It wasn’t so much about his debut, but this: the greatness begins today. It wasn’t so much fun to watch his debut the hypesters said, but just wait for the first Cy and then watch and enjoy the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th ones.
Mark Prior was Strasburg a decade earlier.
@ Mercurial Outfielder:
Yup. Comparable offensive numbers and plays catcher far more often. Weiters also has a cannon for an arm and an excellent defensive rep. overall.
Both Prior and Patterson were #2 ranked prospects in baseball. The hype for both of them was huge. For that matter the hype for Hee Seop Choi was ridiculous too.
It’s just so sad to think about all these prospects the Cubs had and the amount of production they ended up getting. Prospects are exciting until they get to the MLB level and then they’re just depressing.
I think the difference between prior and patterson was patterson was #2 after lansing whereas prior was #2 as soon as he signed. Patterson then kinda fizzled at west tenn (if i recall correctly) and wasnt really hitting the shit out of the ball at Iowa.
ANd priors debut? 10 K in 6IP 2 R. Full front page of tribune and back page. And inside page too. It was a huge deal. I remember leaving work early to watch.. Still a fucking shame
Hey! Patterson is still in the game.
Biding his time.
Gonna pull a J. Bautista.
New shit: http://www.obstructedview.net/chicago-cubs/rizzo-is-coming.html
What about Dave Sappelt in outfield for the Cubs? No mention of him. Just this Brent Jackson with no Major League experience. He has to be worth something to them if they included him in a trade they made with the Reds.